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Akgüç, Mehtap, Marta Kahancová, Jakub Kostolný & Leonie Westhoff (2021): Shaping return to work policy: Current involvement and future potential of EU social dialogue. Negotiating Return to Work in the Age of Demographic Change through Industrial Relations (REWIR) Project No. VS/2019/0075 : Deliverable 2.1. (REWIR working paper), Bratislava, 35 S.

Abstract

"This working paper examines the European Union policy framework on return to work after chronic disease and the potential for EU industrial relations actors to contribute to shaping policy in this area. It is part of the "Negotiating return to work in the age of demographic change through industrial relations (REWIR)" project." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barschkett, Mara, Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan & Anna Hammerschmid (2021): The Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age on Health. Evidence from Administrative Data. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1985), Berlin, 61 S.

Abstract

"This study analyzes the causal effect of an increase in the retirement age on health. We exploit a sizable cohort-specific pension reform for women using two complementary empirical approaches – a Regression Discontinuity Design and a Difference-in-Differences approach. The analysis is based on official records covering all individuals insured by the public health system in Germany and including all certified diagnoses by practitioners. This enables us to gain a detailed understanding of the multi-dimensionality in these health effects. The empirical findings reflect the multidimensionality but allow for deriving two broader conclusions. We provide evidence that the increase in the retirement age negatively affects health outcomes as the prevalence of several diagnoses, e.g., mental health, musculoskeletal diseases, and obesity, increases. In contrast, we do not find support for an improvement in health related to a prolonged working life since there is no significant evidence for a reduction in the prevalence of any health outcome we consider. These findings hold for both identification strategies, are robust to sensitivity checks, and do not change when correcting for multiple hypothesis testing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Börsch-Supan, Axel, Felizia Hanemann, Brian Beach, Didier Halimi, Susana Harding, Marieke van der Waal, Daisuke Watanabe & Ursula M. Staudinger (2021): Older adults' integration in the labour market: a global view. In: Ageing & Society, Jg. 41, H. 4, S. 917-935. DOI:10.1017/S0144686X19001454

Abstract

"What governs labour force participation in later life and why is it so different across countries? Health and labour force participation in older ages are not strongly linked, but we observe a large variation across countries in old-age labour force participation. This points to the important role of country-specific regulations governing pension receipt and old-age labour force participation. In addition to the statutory eligibility age for a pension, such country-specific regulations include: earnings tests that limit the amount of earnings when pension benefits are received; the amount of benefit deductions for early retirement; the availability of part-time pensions before normal retirement; special regulations that permit early retirement for certain population groups; and either subsidies or extra costs for employers if they keep older employees in their labour force. This paper asks two questions: Can we link a relatively low labour force participation at ages 60–64 to country-specific regulations that make early retirement attractive? and Can we link a relatively high labour force participation at ages 65–74 to country-specific regulations that make late retirement attractive? To answer these questions, we compared the experiences in a set of developed countries around the world in order to understand better the impact of country-specific rules and laws on work and retirement behaviour at older ages and, by consequence, on the financial sustainability of pension systems." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Eckrote-Nordland, Marissa Dae, Matthew M. Piszczek, Christopher Ruhm, Mary Hamman, Peter Berg & Daniela Hochfellner (2021): Three Essays in Labor Economics. Michigan, 86 S. DOI:10.25335/ks2e-de95

Abstract

"This dissertation is comprised of three chapters analyzing how establishments react to increases in pensionable age. Chapter 1: Understanding the Impact of Postponed Retirements on the Hiring Decisions of Firms The solvency of public pension systems in countries with pay-as-you-go pension schemes have led many of these countries to adopt changes in the age of eligibility for full-benefits. One such country is Germany who implemented a change in their pensionable age in a major reform enacted in 1992. There have been multiple studies that have looked at the effectiveness of this reform in terms of older workers delaying their retirements. However, less is known about how firms have reacted to these changes and if these changes in policy have caused firms to change their hiring behavior. Using administrative linked employer-employee data I exploit pre-policy variation in worker age distributions to serve as a source of identification for studying how employers reacted in-terms-of hiring behavior. I find that firms that had a higher share of older workers, and thus were impacted more by the change in pensionable age, decreased their hiring. For a one percentage-point increase in the share of workers who are predicted to have retired under the old pension system the share of workers that are new hires decreases by 0.324 percentage points. This is a 2.16% decrease at the mean. When smaller age bins are studied, I find that this negative impact is found for those aged under 25 and those age 25-34. In contrast there is a positive impact on individuals age 45-54, 55-64, and over 65. When looking at contract types there is an over 7% decrease in the hires of trainees and an over 10% increase in the hires of workers on partial retirement contracts. Chapter 2: Effect of Postponed Retirements on Wage Growth of Younger Workers (with Peter Berg, Mary Hamman, Daniela Hochfellner, Matthew M. Piszczek and Christopher Ruhm) This paper uses linked-employer-employee data to examine the effects of postponed retirements on the wage progression of younger workers within establishments. A German pension reform is the source of identification. We find no evidence of slower wage growth. Instead we find faster wage growth, especially among workers aged 41 to 57. We cannot rule out separations as a mechanism, but patterns in estimates by age and tenure are not consistent with layoffs. Instead, we find evidence of less frequent promotions and we interpret the wage findings as consistent with compensating wage differentials for postponed promotions Chapter 3: Pension Reforms and their Implications for Establishment Downsizing (with Peter Berg, Mary Hamman, Daniela Hochfellner, Matthew M. Piszczek and Christopher Ruhm) While the empirical literature on the effects of pension reform on workers is broad, less is known about the impact on employers. Yet reforms that create incentives to postpone retirement may have extensive effects on employer labor demand and labor costs, especially in settings where there are strict legal protections against age discrimination in employment. Although public pension system reforms generally are structured to treat all workers within the same birth cohort similarly, the impact on employers may vary substantially due to differences in the age composition of their employees. Using this variation as a source of identification, we examine whether the differential impact of pension reform leads to differences in the incidence of workforce downsizing, a sign of possible financial distress. To ensure estimates are not biased due to attrition, we also model associations between the impact of pension reform and establishment closures and find no association. Results for downsizing consistently show establishments with a higher share of older workers are more likely to experience downsizing. When we segment workers within establishments by age, the absolute changes in downsizing probabilities are highest for younger workers. Preliminary results indicate works councils may increase the risk of downsizing for older workers and protect employment for young and prime workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Font, Paulino, Mario Izquierdo & Sergio Puente (2021): The Effect of Subsidies to Mature-Age Employment: a Quasi-Experimental Analysis. In: Journal of labor research, Jg. 42, H. 2, S. 123-147. DOI:10.1007/s12122-021-09318-7

Abstract

"This paper evaluates the effect of subsidies to employment maintenance on the probability of mature-age workers staying in the firm. Implementing a quasi-experimental design provided by changes in Spanish labor market regulations, we are able to estimate that the end of subsidies had a small though statistically significant and negative impact on workers' firm attachment rate. Our results show that a 1 pp. increase in the worker's cost translates into a 0.11 pp. increase in the cumulative probability of the worker separating from the firm in the next five months. This effect is mainly driven by workers with relatively less seniority in the firm, who present lower dismissal costs; and by workers in low-skill jobs, for which the wage productivity gap seems to negatively evolve with age. In terms of a cost-benefit analysis, we document that the previous higher rate of job maintenance was achieved at a disproportionate cost, and therefore the elimination of the subsidy resulted in in Social Security savings larger than foregone wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Geyer, Johannes, Svenja Lorenz, Thomas Zwick & Mona Bruns (2021): Early Retirement of Employees in Demanding Jobs: Evidence from a German Pension Reform. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1978), Berlin, 46 S.

Abstract

"Early retirement options are usually targeted at employees at risk of not reaching their regular retirement age in employment. An important at-risk group comprises employees who have worked in demanding jobs for many years. This group may be particularly negatively affected by the abolition of early retirement options. To measure differences in labor market reactions of employees in low- and high-demand jobs, we exploit the quasi-natural experiment of a cohort-specific pension reform that increased the early retirement age for women from 60 to 63 years. Based on a large administrative dataset, we use a regression-discontinuity approach to estimate the labor market reactions. Surprisingly, we find the same relative employment increase of about 25% for treated women who were exposed to low and to high job demand. For older women in demanding jobs, we do not find substitution effects into unemployment, partial retirement, disability pension, or inactivity. Eligibility for the pension for women required high labor market attachment; thus, we argue that this eligibility rule induced the positive selection of healthy workers into early retirement. We propose alternative policies that protect workers exposed to high job demand better against the negative consequences of being unable to reach their statutory retirement age in employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Giesecke, Matthias & Philipp Jäger (2021): Pension Incentives and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Introduction of Universal Old-Age Assistance in the UK. (IZA discussion paper 14469), Bonn, 67 S.

Abstract

"We study the labor supply implications of the Old-Age Pension Act (OPA) of 1908, which, for the first time, provided pensions to older people in the UK. Using recently released census data covering the entire population, we exploit variation at the newly created age-based eligibility threshold. Our results show a considerable and abrupt decline in labor force participation of 6.0 percentage points (13%) when older workers reach the eligibility age of 70. To mitigate the impact of population aging today, pension reforms aimed at increasing elderly labor supply, however, have to induce much larger behavioral responses than the OPA." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gornick, Janet & Eva Sierminska (2021): Wealth Accumulation and Retirement Preparedness in Cross-National Perspective: A Gendered Analysis of Outcomes among Single Adults. (IZA policy paper 181), Bonn, 30 S.

Abstract

"Wealth is an increasingly important dimension of economic well-being and is attracting rising attention in discussions of social inequality. In this paper, we compare – within and across countries – wealth outcomes, and link those to both employment-related factors and policy solutions that have the potential to improve wealth creation and retirement security for women. By constructing country-specific portraits of wealth outcomes and "retirement preparedness," we reveal extensive cross-national variation in multiple facets of wealth. Our regression analysis finds a statistically significant and positive effect of work experience on wealth, with that effect, in general, increasing over time. The effect of work experience for single women is greater than for single men, suggesting that, among men, other, stronger forces are at work in creating wealth. The retirement preparedness outcomes indicate that single women in all three countries are in a precarious position at retirement, with much lower expected annual wealth levels than single men. The second preparedness indicator, which links expected annual wealth to income, demonstrates that men have the potential to cover 1larger shares of their income at retirement – and thus are more able, than their female counterparts, to maintain standards of living achieved earlier in life. Our policy discussion indicates that employment remains a viable option for ultimately bolstering women's wealth accumulation. Many scholars, gender equality advocates, and policymakers have argued for raising women's employment rates – for a multitude of reasons – but few, if any, have made the case for strengthening women's employment in order to ultimately bolster women's wealth building. We hope to help reduce the gap in the literature on policy supports for women's employment and re-open the discussion on how women can create more wealth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hinrichs, Karl (2021): Recent pension reforms in Europe: More challenges, new directions. An overview. In: Social Policy and Administration, Jg. 55, H. 3, S. 409-422. DOI:10.1111/spol.12712

Abstract

"During the last 30 years, all European Union member states have reformed their pension systems. In view of ongoing and intensifying population aging, efforts have aimed at containing the future rise of the contribution rate, improving the system dependency ratio, lowering the benefit ratio and/or infusing tax money or other financial resources into the system. Moreover, since about the early 2000s, we can observe a move towards a multi-pillar pension system in countries hitherto running a dominant-pillar system: private pre-funded occupational pensions and individual provision for old age are given larger roles within the public-private mix of retirement income. An analysis of reforms shows a finite menu of adjustment options, and concrete measures have to be adapted to nation-specific institutional contexts. Finally, we can conclude that pension reforms focusing on long-term financial sustainability may increase the risk of old-age poverty and, thus, violate a central objective of pension schemes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Johnsen, Julian Vedeler & Alexander Willén (2021): The effect of negative income shocks on pensioners. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2021,07), Bonn, 36 S.

Abstract

"This paper provides novel evidence on the labor supply response to negative income shocks in retirement, exploiting an institutional feature that caused differential and unexpected income losses among otherwise identical individuals in a sharp regression discontinuity design. We conclude that retired pensioners do not return to work despite income losses of up to seven percent of their annual income. The paper further shows that the negative income shock had no impact on the health of pensioners. At the height of an ongoing global crisis in which public pension funds are rapidly losing value, these results may be particularly important." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Klaus, Sebastian, Alexander Meschnig & Ernst von Kardorff (2021): Wege psychisch beeinträchtigter Menschen in die Erwerbsminderungsrente und Rückkehrperspektiven in Arbeit. In: Deutsche Rentenversicherung, Jg. 76, H. 1, S. 46-65.

Abstract

"Die Zunahme der Zugänge zu Erwerbsminderungsrenten (EMR) wegen einer psychischen Beeinträchtigung ist für Rentenversicherungsträger eine versorgungspolitische und fachliche Herausforderung. Bislang ist nur wenig über die biografischen Entwicklungsgeschichten bis hin zur Beantragung einer EMR wegen psychischer Beeinträchtigungen bekannt. Das gilt auch für den Einfluss des EMR-Bezugs auf die Gestaltung der neuen Lebenssituation und die Motivation zur Rückkehr auf den allgemeinen Arbeitsmarkt. Die Ergebnisse des von der Deutschen Rentenversicherung Bund von 2017 bis 2020 geförderten Forschungsprojekts "WEMRE" weisen darauf hin, dass, trotz der Heterogenität der biografischen Entwicklungsgeschichten, drei charakteristische Verlaufsformen in die EMR wegen psychischer Beeinträchtigungen vorzufinden sind. Weiter dokumentieren die Ergebnisse verschiedene Reaktionsmuster auf den EMR-Bezug, zu denen auch eine berufliche Neuorientierung zählt, welche mit einer gezielten Unterstützung aufgegriffen und darüber die Rückkehrquote auf den allgemeinen Arbeitsmarkt positiv beeinflusst werden kann." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kruse, Herman & Andreas Myhre (2021): Early Retirement Provision for Elderly Displaced Workers. (MPRA paper 109431), München, 41 S.

Abstract

"This paper studies the economic effects on re-employment and program substitution behavior among elderly displaced workers who exogenously lose eligibility for their early retirement option. We use detailed Norwegian matched employer-employee data containing information on bankruptcy dates and individual-level wealth, income, pensions and social security benefits. Our empirical strategy employs a regression discontinuity design, as job displacement before a certain age cut-off results in losing eligibility for early retirement benefits between ages 62–67 years in Norway. We find that reemployment rates are indistinguishable between workers who just retain eligibility for early retirement benefits and those who just do not. Meanwhile, those who lose eligibility offset 69% of their lost benefits through take-up of other social security benefits, where 51% comes from disability insurance and 13% from unemployment insurance. Our findings are particularly policy relevant as tightening of age-limits for old-age pensions is on the agenda in several OECD countries, while current economic hardship throughout the region may lead to increased job displacement for elderly workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kuhn, Ursina, Markus M. Grabka & Christian Suter (2021): Early retirement as a privilege for the rich? A comparative analysis of Germany and Switzerland. In: Advances in life course research, Jg. 47. DOI:10.1016/j.alcr.2020.100392

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Melesk, Kirsti (2021): Learning in late career stages in Europe – gendered effects of retirement policies. In: Ageing & Society, Jg. 41, H. 10, S. 2191-2213. DOI:10.1017/S0144686X20000033

Abstract

"Institutional contexts shape learning participation throughout the course of life. Combining micro-data on adult education from 26 European countries with country-level indicators on retirement systems in multi-level logistic regression models, the focus is on analysis of participation in non-formal learning among people aged 50–64 and its interactions with retirement policies. The analysis makes use of the largest sample of European countries used so far for exploring the issue. For the first time, gender differences in retirement policies are considered. The results imply that for all women and highly educated men, participation in non-formal training is higher when retirement age in the country is set at 65 years or higher. However, men with less education do not profit from a higher retirement age because their training participation remains unaffected by retirement policies. In the current analysis, training participation in older age groups remains unaffected by the generosity of pensions. The results outline gender differences in learning participation in older age groups. Also, after the age of 50, men with a low education are at particular risk of labour market exclusion and unemployment because the retirement age in European countries keeps rising and technological advancements make additional demands on workers' skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pimpertz, Jochen (2021): Höhere Regelaltersgrenze: 68 reicht nicht. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2021,34), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Mit der fortschreitenden Bevölkerungsalterung muss der Beitragssatz zur gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung steigen - trotz sinkendem Rentenniveau und auch nach 2031, dem Anfangsjahr der „Rente mit 67“. Mit einer fortgesetzten Anhebung der Regelaltersgrenze bis auf 70 Jahre ab 2052 ließe sich der Beitragssatzanstieg aber bremsen und gleichzeitig das Sicherungsniveau stabilisieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Quinby, Laura D. & Gal Wettstein (2021): Do deferred benefit cuts for current employees increase separation? In: Labour Economics, Jg. 73. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2021.102081

Abstract

"This study examines whether deferred benefit cuts increase worker separation. The analysis utilizes a 2005 reform to the Employees' Retirement System of Rhode Island (ERSRI) that reduced benefits for ERSRI members who had not vested by 2005, and did not affect high-tenure ERSRI members and municipal government employees. A triple-differences research design yields an elasticity of employer-specific labor supply with respect to deferred benefits of 0.28. Although state employees were more sensitive to benefit cuts than teachers, low elasticities for both groups suggest that the labor market for public employees is not highly competitive." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Qvist, Jeevitha Yogachandiran (2021): The working class and early retirement in Denmark: individual push factors. In: Ageing & Society, Jg. 41, H. 9, S. 2118-2142. DOI:10.1017/S0144686X20000203

Abstract

"Previous research finds that members of the working class have a higher risk of early retirement compared to professionals because they are pushed into early retirement. This indicates that not all workers can respond to incentives to extend their working life. Yet, little previous work has been conducted to quantify systematically the extent to which push factors explain why members of the working class have a higher risk of early retirement compared to professionals. Using longitudinal data on Danish workers, the results suggest that members of the working class have an increased risk of early retirement compared to professionals, but poor health, previous spells of unemployment and low job quality mediate a large part of this effect. Among men, the push factors mediate 57 and 86 per cent of the effect of social class on early retirement for skilled manual and unskilled manual workers, respectively. Among women, the push factors mediate 43 and 55 per cent of the effect of social class on early retirement for skilled manual and unskilled manual workers, respectively. Overly physical work demands is the most important mediator, which explains between 23 and 31 per cent of the total effect of belonging to the working class on early retirement. Moreover, the magnitudes of the indirect effects of the push factors depend on the particular pathway into retirement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riphahn, Regina T. & Rebecca Schrader (2021): Reforms of an early retirement pathway in Germany and their labor market effects. (LASER discussion papers 134), Erlangen, 28 S.

Abstract

"We investigate the unemployment pathway to retirement in Germany and study the causal effects of two early retirement reforms. Reform 1 (NRA) increased normal retirement age stepwise from 60 to 65. Simultaneously, it became possible to use early retirement with benefit discounts. Reform 2 (ERA) increased the age of early retirement stepwise from 60 to 63. We investigate behavioral responses to the reforms using administrative data and difference-in-differences strategies. We find strong and significant causal effects of both reforms. Individuals postponed retirement, stayed employed longer, postponed unemployment, and shifted to alternative pathways into retirement. The overall use of the retirement system declined by about 1.5 and 2 months per person after each of the two reforms. Individuals with low pension wealth and those who were affected immediately by the reform responded more strongly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Rogerson, Richard & Johanna Wallenius (2021): Shocks, Institutions and Secular Changes in Employment of Older Individuals. (NBER working paper 28914), Cambridge, MA, 53 S. DOI:10.3386/w28914

Abstract

"Employment rates of males aged 55-64 have changed dramatically in the OECD over the last 5 decades. The average employment rate decreased by more than 15 percentage points between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, only to increase by roughly the same amount subsequently. One proposed explanation in the literature is that spousal non-working times are complements and that older males are working longer as a result of secular increases in labor supply of older females. In the first part of this paper we present evidence against this explanation. We then offer a new narrative to understand the employment rate changes for older individuals. We argue that the dramatic U-shaped pattern for older male employment rates should be understood as reflecting a mean reverting low frequency shock to labor market opportunities for all workers in combination with temporary country specific policy responses that incentivized older individuals to withdraw from market work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schmidthuber, Lisa, Charlotte Fechter, Heike Schröder & Moritz Hess (2021): Active ageing policies and delaying retirement: comparing work-retirement transitions in Austria and Germany. In: Journal of international and comparative social policy, Jg. 37, H. 2, S. 176-193. DOI:10.1017/ics.2021.1

Abstract

"We investigate how labour market and pension measures associated with active ageing influence retirement behaviour in Austria and Germany. We focus on two conservative welfare states and evaluate how individuals respond to comparable pension scheme changes. Using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, findings point to increasing average actual retirement ages in both countries. Early retirement becomes less important while working until pension age has gained in significance. In particular, findings point towards greater de-standardisation of retirement transitions, though to a different extent across the two countries. Whereas gender differences are still prevalent in Austria, in line with traditional conservative welfare state characteristics, we find that Germany exhibits lower gender differences, but instead displays stronger inequalities between education groups. We argue that social risks emerge in Germany that are usually found in liberal welfare states. We suggest that this trend is reinforced by retirement policies that focus on “pushing” individuals out of employment. This study contributes to the understanding of how individuals respond to national policy incentives when making retirement transitions." (Author's abstract, © Cambridge University Press) ((en))