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Gürtzgen, Nicole & Franka Vetter (2024): Mindestlohnerhöhung auf 12 Euro: Nur wenige Betriebe reagierten eigenen Angaben zufolge mit Entlassungen. In: IAB-Forum H. 04.04.2024, 2024-04-02. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240404.01

Abstract

"Die bislang deutlichste Erhöhung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf 12 Euro pro Stunde im Oktober 2022 betraf knapp 20 Prozent der Betriebe in Deutschland. Nach Daten der IAB-Stellenerhebung zeigten sich dabei große Unterschiede zwischen den Wirtschaftszweigen, wobei im Gastgewerbe anteilig am meisten, im Baugewerbe am wenigsten Betriebe betroffen waren. Als Reaktion auf die Anhebung des Mindestlohns erhöhten die Betriebe nach eigenen Angaben am häufigsten die Preise von Produkten und Dienstleistungen. Sie stellten außerdem häufiger Investitionen und Neueinstellungen zurück." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kunaschk, Max (2024): The effects of minimum wages on employment and Prices - Evidence from the hairdressing sector. In: Labour Economics online erschienen am 06.04.2024. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102540

Abstract

"This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the labor and product market effects of a high-impact minimum wage introduction in the highly competitive hairdressing sector. Using detailed administrative data, I find negligible overall employment effects, even though the minimum wage substantially increased hourly wages. However, sub-group analyses reveal considerable heterogeneity in the estimated employment effects and suggest shifts away from marginal towards regular employment. Analyses of the price effects suggest that the reform increased output prices considerably, implying that consumers largely paid for the minimum wage." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Elsevier) ((en))

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Moog, Alexander (2024): Internal migration after a uniform minimum wage introduction. (arXiv papers 2404.19590), 47 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2404.19590

Abstract

"Internal migration is an essential aspect to study labor mobility. I exploit the German statutory minimum wage introduction in 2015 to estimate its push and pull effects on internal migration using a 2% sample of administrative data. In a conditional fixed effects Poisson difference-in-differences framework with a continuous treatment, I find that the minimum wage introduction leads to an increase in the out-migration of low-skilled workers with migrant background by 25% with an increasing tendency over time from districts where a high share of workers are subject to the minimum wage (high-bite districts). In contrast the migration decision of native-born low-skilled workers is not affected by the policy. However, both native-born low-skilled workers and those with a migrant background do relocate across establishments, leaving high-bite districts as their workplace. In addition, I find an increase for unemployed individuals with a migrant background in out-migrating from high-bite districts. These results emphasize the importance of considering the effects on geographical labor mobility when implementing and analyzing policies that affect the determinants of internal migration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Backhaus, Teresa & Kai-Uwe Müller (2023): Can a federal minimum wage alleviate poverty and income inequality? Ex-post and simulation evidence from Germany. In: Journal of European Social Policy, Jg. 33, H. 2, S. 216-232. DOI:10.1177/09589287221144233

Abstract

"Minimum wages are increasingly discussed as an instrument against (in-work) poverty and income inequality in Europe. Just recently the German government opted for a substantial ad-hoc increase of the minimum-wage level to €12 per hour mentioning poverty prevention as an explicit goal. We use the introduction of the federal minimum wage in Germany in 2015 to study its redistributive impact on disposable household incomes. Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel we analyse changes in poverty and income inequality investigating different mechanisms of the transmission from individual gross wage-rates to disposable household incomes. We find that the minimum wage is an inadequate tool for income redistribution because it does not target poor households. Individuals affected by the minimum wage are not primarily in households at the bottom of the income distribution but are spread across it. Consequently, welfare dependence decreases only marginally. The withdrawal of transfers or employment effects cannot explain the limited effect on poverty. Complementary simulations show that neither full compliance nor a markedly higher level of €12 per hour can render the minimum wage more effective in reducing poverty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bossler, Mario & Martin Popp (2023): Labor Demand on a Tight Leash. (LASER discussion papers 143), Erlangen, 77 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2302

Abstract

"In diesem Aufsatz stellen wir ein Arbeitsnachfrage-Modell auf, das Einstellungskosten berücksichtigt, die aufgrund eines angespannten Arbeitsmarktes bei der Besetzung offener Stellen anfallen. Darauf aufbauend schätzen wir den Effekt der Arbeitsmarktanspannung auf die betriebliche Arbeitsnachfrage, indem wir neuartige Bartik-Instrumente sowie administrative Beschäftigungsdaten für Deutschland heranziehen. Im Einklang mit der Theorie deuten die IV-Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass ein zehnprozentiger Anstieg der Arbeitsmarktanspannung die betriebliche Beschäftigung um rund 0,5 Prozent reduziert. Außerdem zeigt sich, dass die betriebliche Lohnelastizität der Arbeitsnachfrage durch Einbeziehung von Suchexternalitäten auf der aggregierten Ebene von -0,7 auf -0,5 sinkt. In Bezug auf die Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns im Jahr 2015 implizieren die Elastizitäten nur geringfügig negative Beschäftigungseffekte, was die Ergebnisse empirischer Ex-Post-Evaluationen widerspiegelt. Darüber hinaus führte die Verdoppelung der Arbeitsmarktanspannung in Deutschland zwischen 2012 und 2019 zu einer Verringerung des Beschäftigungswachstums um rund 1,1 Millionen Arbeitsplätze." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bossler, Mario & Martin Popp (2023): Labor Demand on a Tight Leash. (IAB-Discussion Paper 02/2023), Nürnberg, 90 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2302

Abstract

"In diesem Aufsatz stellen wir ein Arbeitsnachfrage-Modell auf, das Einstellungskosten berücksichtigt, die aufgrund eines angespannten Arbeitsmarktes bei der Besetzung offener Stellen anfallen. Darauf aufbauend schätzen wir den Effekt der Arbeitsmarktanspannung auf die betriebliche Arbeitsnachfrage, indem wir neuartige Bartik-Instrumente sowie administrative Beschäftigungsdaten für Deutschland heranziehen. Im Einklang mit der Theorie deuten die IV-Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass ein zehnprozentiger Anstieg der Arbeitsmarktanspannung die betriebliche Beschäftigung um rund 0,5 Prozent reduziert. Außerdem zeigt sich, dass die betriebliche Lohnelastizität der Arbeitsnachfrage durch Einbeziehung von Suchexternalitäten auf der aggregierten Ebene von -0,7 auf -0,5 sinkt. In Bezug auf die Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns im Jahr 2015 implizieren die Elastizitäten nur geringfügig negative Beschäftigungseffekte, was die Ergebnisse empirischer Ex-Post-Evaluationen widerspiegelt. Darüber hinaus führte die Verdoppelung der Arbeitsmarktanspannung in Deutschland zwischen 2012 und 2019 zu einer Verringerung des Beschäftigungswachstums um rund 1,1 Millionen Arbeitsplätze." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Brandon, Alec, Justin E. Holz, Andrew Simon & Haruka Uchida (2023): Minimum Wages and Racial Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from a Field Experiment. (Upjohn Institute working paper 389), Kalamazoo, Mich., 90 S. DOI:10.17848/wp23-389

Abstract

"When minimum wages increase, employers may respond to the regulatory burdens by substituting away from disadvantaged workers. We test this hypothesis using a correspondence study with 35,000 applications around ex-ante uncertain minimum wage increases in three U.S. states. Before the increases, applicants with distinctively Black names were 19 percent less likely to receive a callback than equivalent applicants with distinctively white names. Announcements of minimum wage hikes substantially reduce callbacks for all applicants but shrink the racial callback gap by 80 percent. Racial inequality decreases because firms disproportionately reduce callbacks to lower-quality white applicants who benefited from discrimination under lower minimum wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brochu, Pierre, David A. Green, James Townsend & Thomas Lemieux (2023): The minimum wages, turnover, and the shape of the wage distribution. (IFS working paper / Institute for Fiscal Studies 2023,32), London, 62 S.

Abstract

"This paper proposes an empirical approach to decompose the distributional effects of minimum wages into effects for workers moving out of employment, workers moving into employment, and workers continuing in employment. We estimate the effects of the minimum wage on the hazard rate for wages, which provides a convenient way of re-scaling the wage distribution to control for possible employment effects. We find that minimum wage increases do not result in an abnormal concentration of Job Leavers below the new minimum wage, which is inconsistent with employment effects predicted by a neoclassical model. We also find that, for Job Stayers, the spike and spillover effects of the minimum wage are simply shifted right to the new minimum wage. Our findings are consistent with a model where entry wages are set according to a job ladder, and where firms preserve their internal wage structure due to fairness or internal incentives issues." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Caliendo, Marco, Nico Pestel & Rebecca Olthaus (2023): Long-Term Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in Germany: New Data and Estimators. (arXiv papers), 35 S.

Abstract

"We study the long-term effects of the 2015 German minimum wage introduction and its subsequent increases on regional employment. Using data from two waves of the Structure of Earnings Survey allows us to estimate models that account for changes in the minimum wage bite over time. While the introduction mainly affected the labor market in East Germany, the raises are also increasingly affecting low-wage regions in West Germany, such that around one third of regions have changed their (binary) treatment status over time. We apply different specifications and extensions of the classic difference-in-differences approach as well as a set of new estimators that enables for unbiased effect estimation with a staggered treatment adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects. Our results indicate a small negative effect on dependent employment of 0.5 percent, no significant effect on employment subject to social security contributions, and a significant negative effect of about 2.4 percent on marginal employment until the first quarter of 2022. The extended specifications suggest additional effects of the minimum wage increases, as well as stronger negative effects on total dependent and marginal employment for those regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage in 2015 and 2019." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Drechsel-Grau, Moritz (2023): Employment and Reallocation Effects of Higher Minimum Wages. (CESifo working paper 10412), München, 64 S.

Abstract

"This paper studies the employment and reallocation effects of minimum wages in Germany in a search-and-matching model with endogenous job search effort and vacancy posting, multiple employment levels, a progressive tax-transfer system, and worker and firm heterogeneity. I find that minimum wages up to 70% of the median wage significantly increase productivity, hours worked and output without reducing employment. In frictional labor markets, however, reallocation takes time whenever the minimum wage cuts deep into the wage distribution. I show that gradually implementing a high minimum wage is necessary to avoid elevated unemployment rates during the transition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dütsch, Matthias, Orkun Altun, Luisa Grundmann & Ralf Himmelreicher (2023): What does the German minimum wage do? The impact of the introduction of the statutory minimum wage on the composition of low- and minimum-wage labour. (baua: Preprint / Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Arbeitsmedizin), Dortmund, 30 S. DOI:10.21934/baua:preprint20230201

Abstract

"In this article, we examine structural changes in minimum-wage and low-wage labour after the introduction and first increase of the German minimum wage. Changes in the risks workers face of earning gross hourly wages below the minimum-wage or low-wage thresholds are identified by comparing individual, company-level and sectoral characteristics based on the Structure of Earnings Surveys (SESs) 2014 and 2018. The SES is a mandatory survey of companies that provides information on wages and working hours for approximately 1 million jobs and nearly 70,000 companies from all industries. Using these rich data, we present the first systematic analysis of how structural changes in individual-, company-, and industry-level determinants affect minimum- and low-wage workers. Using a descriptive analysis, we first summarize the changing pattern in jobs, companies, and industries after the minimum wage introduction. Second, we use random intercept-only models to estimate the explanatory power of the individual, company, and industry levels in the years 2014 and 2018 respectively. Third, we perform logistic and linear regression estimations to assess the changing risks of having a minimum- or low-wage job and the distance between a worker’s actual earnings and the minimum and low-wage thresholds. We conclude that the minimum wage had an elevator effect regarding minimum-wage labour. However, compositional effects regarding the minimum-wage and low-wage workforce were evident in terms of individual and company factors. There was a selective redistribution of minimum-wage employees into slightly higher wage ranges. Furthermore, convergence seems to have occurred predominantly among sectors, as their explanatory power for lower wages declined." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Friedrich, Martin, Elke Jahn, Michael Oberfichtner, Johannes Weiß, Alan Manning & David Card; Alan Manning & David Card (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2023): Unvollkommener Wettbewerb auf dem Arbeitsmarkt: Ursachen, Ausmaß und Folgen (Podium). In: IAB-Forum H. 24.08.2023 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20230824.01

Abstract

"Bei vollkommenem Wettbewerb auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, so die klassische ökonomische Theorie, verliert ein Arbeitgeber, der seine Löhne auch nur minimal senkt, sämtliche Beschäftigten. In der Realität ist dies jedoch nur höchst selten der Fall. Denn auf Arbeitsmärkten herrscht in aller Regel nur unvollkommener Wettbewerb. Arbeitgeber verfügen demnach über eine gewisse Marktmacht und können diese nutzen, um niedrigere Löhne zu zahlen, als sie es bei vollkommenem Wettbewerb tun müssten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Margolis, David & Victor Saldarriaga (2023): Minimum Wages and Contract Duration in Germany. (PSE working paper / Paris School of Economics 2023-32), Paris, 40 S.

Abstract

"We assess the effect of the introduction of a minimum wage policy of 8.50 EUR/hour in Germany in January 2015 on the probability of transitioning from fixed-term to open-ended contracts. Utilizing administrative data from social security records, we compare ex-ante affected (i.e., those earning below the minimum wage) workers against unaffected ones during the pre-implementation period, and find a significant decline in the probability that ex-ante affected workers employed under fixed-term contracts transition to open-ended contracts as the ending month of their fixed-term contract approaches January 2015, when the minimum wage policy was enforced. We interpret our empirical results through the lens of a job search model where firms use fixed-term contracts as a probation phase to learn about the matchspecific productivity with a given worker. In this model, firms sign open-ended contracts based on a productivity threshold rule. A sufficiently high minimum wage can push this threshold up, thus reducing the probability at which workers transition from fixed-term to open-ended contracts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Nanos, Panagiotis (2023): Minimum Wage Spillover Effects and Social Welfare in a Model of Stochastic Job Matching. (Sheffield economic research paper series / The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics 2023004), Sheffield, 30 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, I carry out a welfare analysis of the minimum wage in the framework of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with stochastic job matching. I explore the role of the minimum wage in a labour market with trading externalities and present the necessary and sufficient condition for a minimum wage hike to be efficiency-enhancing. In this context, I characterise minimum wage spillover effects and demonstrate that there is a direct link between the welfare effects and spillover effects of a minimum wage. This theoretical finding suggests that the welfare impact of minimum wage changes can be inferred from the empirical observation of spillover effects on the wage distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Popp, Martin (2023): How elastic is labor demand? A meta-analysis for the German labor market. In: Journal for labour market research, Jg. 57, 2023-02-15. DOI:10.1186/s12651-023-00337-8

Abstract

"The own-wage elasticity of labor demand measures the effect of higher wages on firms’ demand for labor and, thus, determines the impact of supply shocks, minimum wages, and collective wage agreements on the labor market. I carry out a comprehensive meta-analysis to shed light on the nature of this parameter, leveraging 705 elasticity estimates from 105 studies on the German labor market. The average elasticity is −0.43, but entails important heterogeneity: Labor demand turns out particularly elastic for low- and high-skilled workers, in the long run, and for internationally operating firms. While empirical designs that address endogeneity deliver more negative elasticities, the analysis does not support any systematic differences by region or by margin of adjustment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Wursten, Jesse & Michael Reich (2023): Racial inequality in frictional labor markets: Evidence from minimum wages. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 82. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102344

Abstract

"We provide the first causal analysis of how state and federal minimum wage policies in the U.S. have affected labor market frictions and racial wage gaps. Using stacked event studies, binned difference-in-differences estimators, within-person analyses and classic panel methods, we find that minimum wages increased wages of black workers between 16 and 64% more than among white workers and reduced the overall black-white wage gap by 10% (and by 56% among workers most affected by the policies). Racial differences in initial wages cannot explain this differential effect. Rather, minimum wages expand job opportunities for black workers more than for white workers. We present a model with labor market frictions in which minimum wages expand the job search radius of workers who do not own automobiles and who live farther from jobs. Our causal results using the ACS show that minimum wages increase commuting via automobile among black workers but not among white workers, supporting our model. Minimum wages also reduce racial gaps in separations and hires, further suggesting the policies especially enhance job opportunities for black workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

Abstract

"Das Projekt untersuchte, ob es in Folge der Anhebung des Mindestlohns auf 12 Euro zu Veränderungen im Angebot von und in der Nachfrage nach Schwarzarbeit kam. Hierfür wurden in drei Wellen eine repräsentative Stichprobe von jeweils 1.000 Beschäftigten befragt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Mindestlohnkommission (2023): Vierter Bericht zu den Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns. Bericht der Mindestlohnkommission an die Bundesregierung nach § 9 Abs. 4 Mindestlohngesetz. (... Bericht zu den Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns / Mindestlohnkommission 4), Berlin, 233 S. DOI:10.21934/MLK20230117

Abstract

"Seit dem 1. Januar 2015 gilt in Deutschland ein allgemeiner gesetzlicher Mindestlohn. Über die Anpassung seiner Höhe beschließt die Mindestlohnkommission. Abweichend davon wurde der gesetzliche Mindestlohn durch den Deutschen Bundestag mit Wirkung zum 1. Oktober 2022 auf 12 Euro brutto pro Stunde angehoben. Die Mindestlohnkommission hat den gesetzlichen Auftrag, einen Bericht über die Auswirkungen des Mindestlohns auf den Schutz der Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer, die Wettbewerbsbedingungen und die Beschäftigung in Bezug auf bestimmte Branchen und Regionen sowie die Produktivität zu erstellen. Die Anhebung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns durch den Gesetzgeber hatte zur Folge, dass die von der Mindestlohnkommission beschlossene Höhe des Mindestlohns ab Oktober 2022 ausgesetzt wurde und der Anpassungsbeschluss der Mindestlohnkommission für das Jahr 2023 erst ein Jahr später für das Jahr 2024 erfolgt. 2 Der vorliegende Bericht der Mindestlohnkommission dokumentiert den aktuellen Erkenntnisstand zur Einführung und zu den nachfolgenden Erhöhungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns. Der Berichtszeitraum umfasst schwerpunktmäßig die Jahre 2020 bis 2022." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, Francesco Manaresi, Omar Rachedi & Emircan Yurdagul (2022): Minimum Wages and Insurance Within the Firm. (CRC TR 224 discussion paper series 326), Bonn, 46 S.

Abstract

"Minimum wages alter the allocation of firm-idiosyncratic risk across workers. To establish this result, we focus on Italy, and leverage employer-employee data matched to firm balance sheets and hand-collected wage floors. We find a relatively larger pass-through of firm-specific labor-demand shocks into wages for the workers whose earnings are far from the floors, but who are employed by establishments intensive in minimum-wage workers. We study the welfare implications of this fact using an incomplete-market model. The asymmetric pass-through uncovers a novel channel which tilts the benefits of removing minimum wages toward high-paid employees at the expense of low-wage workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Adams, Camilla, Jonathan Meer & CarlyWill Sloan (2022): The minimum wage and search effort. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 212. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110288

Abstract

"Labor market search-and-matching models posit supply-side responses to minimum wage increases that may lead to improved matches and lessen or even reverse negative employment effects. Using event study analysis of recent minimum wage increases, we find that these changes do not affect the likelihood of searching, but do lead to transitory spikes in search effort by individuals already looking for work. These results are not driven by changes in the composition of searchers, and are concentrated among the groups most likely to be impacted by the minimum wage and in response to larger minimum wage increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))