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Moog, Alexander (2024): Internal migration after a uniform minimum wage introduction. (arXiv papers 2404.19590), 47 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2404.19590

Abstract

"Internal migration is an essential aspect to study labor mobility. I exploit the German statutory minimum wage introduction in 2015 to estimate its push and pull effects on internal migration using a 2% sample of administrative data. In a conditional fixed effects Poisson difference-in-differences framework with a continuous treatment, I find that the minimum wage introduction leads to an increase in the out-migration of low-skilled workers with migrant background by 25% with an increasing tendency over time from districts where a high share of workers are subject to the minimum wage (high-bite districts). In contrast the migration decision of native-born low-skilled workers is not affected by the policy. However, both native-born low-skilled workers and those with a migrant background do relocate across establishments, leaving high-bite districts as their workplace. In addition, I find an increase for unemployed individuals with a migrant background in out-migrating from high-bite districts. These results emphasize the importance of considering the effects on geographical labor mobility when implementing and analyzing policies that affect the determinants of internal migration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Adamopoulou, Effrosyni, Francesco Manaresi, Omar Rachedi & Emircan Yurdagul (2022): Minimum Wages and Insurance Within the Firm. (CRC TR 224 discussion paper series 326), Bonn, 46 S.

Abstract

"Minimum wages alter the allocation of firm-idiosyncratic risk across workers. To establish this result, we focus on Italy, and leverage employer-employee data matched to firm balance sheets and hand-collected wage floors. We find a relatively larger pass-through of firm-specific labor-demand shocks into wages for the workers whose earnings are far from the floors, but who are employed by establishments intensive in minimum-wage workers. We study the welfare implications of this fact using an incomplete-market model. The asymmetric pass-through uncovers a novel channel which tilts the benefits of removing minimum wages toward high-paid employees at the expense of low-wage workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Caliendo, Marco, Rebecca Olthaus & Nico Pestel (2022): Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit. Studie im Auftrag der Mindestlohnkommission : Projektvergabe durch die Bundesanstalt für Arbeitsschutz und Arbeitsmedizin (BAuA), Vergabe-Nr. 547697 : Abschlussbericht. Berlin, 99 S.

Abstract

"Im Fokus der Studie standen die kausalen Effekte des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitslosigkeit. Die bisher vorliegenden Erkenntnisse zu den kurz- bis mittelfristigen Wirkungen des Mindestlohns wurden mit dieser Studie bis ins Jahr 2020 erweitert. Die Analysen wurden differenziert nach Beschäftigungsformen, sozio-demografischen Charakteristika, Regionen und Wirtschaftszweigen durchgeführt. Als Datenbasis dient die Beschäftigtenstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Cengiz, Doruk, Arindrajit Dube, Attila S. Lindner & David Zentler-Munro (2022): Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 40, H. S1, S. S203-S247. DOI:10.1086/718497

Abstract

"We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes. First, we apply modern machine learning tools to predict who is affected by the policy. Second, we implement an event study using 172 prominent minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2019. We find a clear increase in wages of affected workers and no change in employment. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have no effect on the unemployment rate, labor force participation, or labor market transitions. Overall, these findings provide little evidence of changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Heiden, Marleen von der & Ralf Himmelreicher (2022): Was halten Geringverdienende vom Mindestlohn? Eine qualitative Untersuchung im Auftrag des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP). (SOEPpapers on multidisciplinary panel data research at DIW Berlin 1158), Berlin, 15 S.

Abstract

"Im Zentrum dieses Beitrags steht die Frage, wie Geringverdienende die Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns in Deutschland wahrnehmen. Auf Grundlage einer qualitativen Erhebung mit 31 Befragten im Rahmen von sechs Fokusgruppengesprächen, die im Sommer 2015 durchgeführt wurden, konnten vertiefte Einsichten gewonnen werden. Zunächst zeigte sich, dass Geringverdienende oftmals mit Beschäftigungshemmnissen konfrontiert sind. Häufig und auch kumulativ genannte Einschränkungen waren Krankheiten, die Pflege von Angehörigen, Kindererziehung und ein höheres Alter. Diese führten entweder zu Nichtbeschäftigung oder zu reduzierten wöchentlichen Arbeitszeiten; einige waren lediglich geringfügig beschäftigt. Die Einführung des Mindestlohns wurde als Schritt in die richtige Richtung zur Unterbindung von Lohndumping und mehr Anerkennung der Beschäftigten bezeichnet. Der zum Zeitpunkt der Untersuchung bestehende gesetzliche Mindestlohn von 8,50 Euro wird jedoch als zu gering eingeschätzt, um als gerechter Lohn wahrgenommen zu werden. Leistungen würden nicht anerkannt und finanzielle Bedarfe, etwa für die Miete vor allem in Städten, könnten oftmals nicht abgedeckt werden. Auch bei der Einhaltung und Kontrolle des Mindestlohns wird Verbesserungsbedarf gesehen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Ingwersen, Kai & Stephan L. Thomsen (2022): Minimum Wage in Germany: Countering the Wage and Employment Gap between Migrants and Natives. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 15823), Bonn, 44 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates the effects of the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany on the wages and employment of migrants. Migrants are an overrepresented group in the low-wage sector and can be expected to particularly benefit from a minimum wage. We combine a "differential trend adjusted difference-in-differences estimator" (DTADD) and descriptive evidence to evaluate the impact of the minimum wage introduction in 2015 on hourly wages, monthly salaries, working hours and changes in employment and wage distribution. Contrary to expectations, our results show that the introduction of the minimum wage has weakened the position of migrants in the low-wage sector compared to their native counterparts. We observe an increase in part-time employment, a less pronounced decline in unemployment and a greater reduction in weekly working hours among migrants. The introduction of the minimum wage caused a temporary convergence in hourly wages between migrants and natives, which subsequently turned into a wage divergence. Migrant men in the low-wage sector have been particularly negatively affected by the introduction of the minimum wage. Moreover, increasing hourly wages have not translated into higher monthly salaries, thus widening wage inequality between migrants and natives." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Johnson, Matthew S. & Michael Lipsitz (2022): Why are Low-Wage Workers Signing Noncompete Agreements? In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 57, H. 3, S. 689-724. DOI:10.3368/jhr.57.3.0619-10274R2

Abstract

"Policymakers are concerned by evidence that noncompete agreements (NCAs) are widely used in low-wage jobs. We show that firms that would otherwise not use NCAs are induced to use one in the presence of frictions to adjusting wages downward. Using a new survey of salon owners, we find that declines in the terms of trade for employees and increases in the minimum wage lead to higher NCA use, but only at firms for which the employee's cost of an NCA likely exceeds the employer's benefit. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have a negative effect on employment only where NCAs are unenforceable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

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Kölling, Arnd (2022): Monopsony power and the demand for low-skilled workers. In: The Economic and Labour Relations Review, Jg. 33, H. 2, S. 377-395. DOI:10.1177/10353046211042427

Abstract

"This study analyses firms’ labour demand when employers have at least some monopsony power. It is argued that without taking into account (quasi-)monopsonistic structures of the labour market, wrong predictions are made about the effects of minimum wages. Using switching fractional panel probit regressions with German establishment data, I find that slightly more than 80% of establishments exercise some degree of monopsony power in their demand for low-skilled workers. The outcome suggests that a 1% increase in payments for low-skilled workers would, in these firms, increase employment for this group by 1.12%, while firms without monopsony power reduce the number of low-skilled, by about 1.63% for the same increase in remuneration. The study can probably also be used to explain the limited employment effects of the introduction of a statutory minimum wage in Germany and thus leads to a better understanding of the labour market for low-skilled workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © SAGE) ((en))

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Neumark, David & Peter Shirley (2022): Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States? In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 61, H. 4, S. 384-417. DOI:10.1111/irel.12306

Abstract

"The disagreement among studies on the employment effects of minimum wages in the United States is well known. Less well known, and more puzzling, is the absence of agreement on what the research literature says—that is, how economists summarize the body of evidence on the employment effects of minimum wages. Summaries range from “it is now well established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.” We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s. To accomplish this, we assembled the entire set of published studies in this literature and identified the core estimates that support the conclusions from each study, in most cases relying on responses from the researchers who wrote these papers. Our key conclusions are as follows: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults and the less educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low-wage industries is less one-sided." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Pusch, Toralf (2022): Wie viel Beschäftigung hat der Mindestlohn gekostet? Oder: Hatten die warnenden Stimmen doch recht? In: A. Heise & T. Pusch (Hrsg.) (2022): Mindestlöhne – Szenen einer Wissenschaft, S. 175-197.

Abstract

"Der vorliegende Beitrag geht der Frage nach, ob sich die im Vorfeld der Mindestlohneinführung von einer Reihe namhafter deutscher Ökonomen vorgelegten pessimistischen Prognosen im Nachhinein rechtfertigen lassen, wenn neben den direkten Beschäftigungsreaktionen auch Anpassungen bei der Arbeitszeit und Ausweichreaktionen mit in Betracht gezogen werden. Knabe et al. (2020) kommen in einem Literaturüberblick mit Rückgriff auf diese Argumente zu dem Schluss, dass die von ihnen zuvor prognostizierten Beschäftigungsverluste von 426.000 bis 912.000 Stellen voll und ganz dem Forschungsstand der empirischen Studien für den gesetzlichen Mindestlohn entsprechen würden. Demgegenüber fasst der vorliegende Beitrag den Forschungsstand so zusammen, dass die mindestlohnkritischen Ex-ante-Prognosen letztlich kaum in Einklang mit den Entwicklungen nach Einführung des Mindestlohns zu bringen sind. Dies betrifft sowohl die Beschäftigungsverluste als auch die beobachteten Arbeitszeitentwicklungen. Die in Studien festgestellten Beschäftigungseffekte sind eher gering. Einzig die Zahl der Minijobs im Hauptjob hat im Zeitverlauf abgenommen und auch deren Arbeitszeit ist spürbar gesunken. Allerdings wurden gleichzeitig Minijobs in sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung umgewandelt. Da es nach der Mindestlohneinführung zwischen Minijobs im Hauptjob und sozialversicherungspflichtiger Beschäftigung eine Substitution gegeben hat, ist ein Überblick über die Nettoeffekte bei Arbeitsplätzen und Arbeitszeit schwierig. Aus diesem Grund wird zusätzlich zu den genannten Effekten auch die Einkommensentwicklung im Mindestlohnbereich betrachtet... Bei den sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten im Mindestlohnbereich war die tatsächliche Steigerung der Monatslöhne etwa doppelt so hoch wie im Monopson-Modell von Knabe et al. (2014) und etwa viermal so hoch wie im neoklassischen Standardmodell. Diese Modellprognosen können daher als widerlegt betrachtet werden. Der Mindestlohn hat kaum Beschäftigung gekostet und stand auch einer Einkommensausweitung bei den Niedrigverdienern nicht im Wege." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Villanueva, Ernesto & Effrosyni Adamopoulou (2022): Employment and wage effects of extending collective bargaining agreements. Sectoral collective contracts reduce inequality but may lead to job losses among workers with earnings close to the wage floors. (IZA world of labor 136), Bonn, 12 S. DOI:10.15185/izawol.136.v2

Abstract

"Der Gesamteffekt der Allgemeinverbindlichkeit von Tarifverträgen hängt davon ab, wie viele Arbeitsplätze aufgrund der tariflich geregelten Lohnuntergrenzen und sonstigen Arbeitsbedingungen abgebaut werden. Um die Auswirkungen auf Löhne und Beschäftigung bewerten zu können, müssen Informationen über Tarifverträge mit Längsschnittdaten zu Arbeitgebern und Arbeitnehmern verknüpft werden. Neue Erkenntnisse der Forschung zeigen, dass negative Effekte meist auf Arbeitnehmer mit Verdiensten in der Nähe der Mindestlöhne beschränkt sind. Öffnungsklauseln und Repräsentativitätserfordernisse können dem entgegenwirken." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bruttel, Oliver & Clemens Ohlert (2020): Die Bedeutung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns für Geflüchtete. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 73, H. 2, S. 110-118. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2020-2-110

Abstract

"Der Beitrag diskutiert die Bedeutung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns für die Beschäftigungssituation Geflüchteter. Dabei geht es zum einen um die Frage, in welchem Maß der gesetzliche Mindestlohn für die Entlohnung Geflüchteter relevant ist. Dabei zeigt sich auf Basis von Daten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, dass viele Geflüchtete Löhne im Mindest- und Niedriglohnbereich erhalten und auch in Branchen arbeiten, in denen der gesetzliche Mindestlohn eine große Rolle spielt. Zum anderen stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern eine Ausnahme vom gesetzlichen Mindestlohn die Beschäftigungschancen von Geflüchteten verbessern würde. Hier sprechen die vorhandenen (internationalen) Erkenntnisse dafür, dass eine solche Sonderregelung für Geflüchtete kein zielführendes Instrument wäre, um deren Arbeitsmarktintegration zu verbessern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Gregory, Terry & Ulrich Zierahn (2020): When the Minimum Wage Really Bites Hard. Impact on Top Earners and Skill Supply. (IZA discussion paper 13633), Bonn, 55 S.

Abstract

"We investigate minimum wage spillovers by exploiting the first-time introduction of a minimum wage within a quasi-experiment in a context with an extraordinary large bite: the German roofing industry. We find positive wage spillovers for medium-skilled workers with wages just above the minimum wage, but negative effects for high-skilled top earners in East Germany, where the bite was particularly pronounced. There, the minimum wage lowered both returns to skills and skill supply. We propose a theoretical model according to which negative spillovers occur whenever a negative scale effect dominates a positive substitution effect and provide empirical support for our theory." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2020 Elsevier) ((en))

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Kölling, Arnd (2020): The Statutory Minimum Wage in Germany and the Labor Demand Elasticities of Low-Skilled Workers: A Regression Discontinuity Approach with Establishment Panel Data. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 687), Essen, 31 S.

Abstract

"This study examines the influence of the statutory minimum wage on labor demand elasticities regarding low-skilled workers. For this, a regression discontinuity analysis is conducted using company panel data from 2013 to 2018. In addition, a possible endogeneity of the remuneration for low-skilled workers was considered using an IV estimation. It is shown that the monopsonistic structures of the labor market may continue to exist after the introduction of the minimum wage. Additionally, the own-wage elasticity for low-skilled workers did not change over the period considered. However, in the short run, stronger substitutive relationships with medium-skilled workers seem to exist, and probably also with highly qualified employees in the long run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lavecchia, Adam M. (2020): Minimum wage policy with optimal taxes and unemployment. In: Journal of Public Economics, Jg. 190. DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104228

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Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (2020): Verdiensterhebung 2019. Endbericht. (Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales. Forschungsbericht 548), Berlin, 32 S.

Abstract

"Die Verdiensterhebung 2019 wurde als Sondererhebung von den Statistischen Ämtern des Bundes und der Länder im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Arbeit und Soziales durchgeführt, um kurzfristig Daten zur Wirkung bzw. zur Erhöhung des Mindestlohns zu gewinnen. Auf freiwilliger Basis berichteten dazu repräsentativ ausgewählte Betriebe über Bruttoverdienste und Arbeitszeit im April 2019. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der Ergebnisbericht und dokumentiert die Arbeiten und das Vorgehen der Statistischen Ämter des Bundes und der Länder und stellt die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Erhebung dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Azar, José, Emiliano Huet-Vaughn, Ioana Marinescu, Bledi Taska & Till von Wachter (2019): Minimum wage employment effects and labor market concentration. (NBER working paper 26101), Cambrige, Mass., 40 S. DOI:10.3386/w26101

Abstract

"Why is the employment effect of the minimum wage frequently found to be close to zero? Theory tells us that when wages are below marginal productivity, as with monopsony, employers are able to increase wages without laying off workers, but systematic evidence directly supporting this explanation is lacking. In this paper, we provide empirical support for the monopsony explanation by studying a key low-wage retail sector and using data on labor market concentration that covers the entirety of the United States with fine spatial variation at the occupation-level. We find that more concentrated labor markets - where wages are more likely to be below marginal productivity - experience significantly more positive employment effects from the minimum wage. While increases in the minimum wage are found to significantly decrease employment of workers in low concentration markets, minimum wage-induced employment changes become less negative as labor concentration increases, and are even estimated to be positive in the most highly concentrated markets. Our findings provide direct empirical evidence supporting the monopsony model as an explanation for the near-zero minimum wage employment effect documented in prior work. They suggest the aggregate minimum wage employment effects estimated thus far in the literature may mask heterogeneity across different levels of labor market concentration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cengiz, Doruk, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner & Ben Zipperer (2018): The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs. Evidence from the United States using a bunching estimator. (CEP discussion paper 1531), London, 104 S.

Abstract

"We propose a novel method that infers the employment effect of a minimum wage increase by comparing the number of excess jobs paying at or slightly above the new minimum wage to the missing jobs paying below it. Using state-level variation in U.S. minimum wages, we implement our method by providing new estimates on the effect of the minimum wage on the frequency distribution of hourly wages. First, we present a case study of a large, indexed minimum wage increase using administrative data on hourly wages from Washington State. Then we implement an event study analysis pooling 138 minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2016. In both cases, we find that the overall number of low-wage jobs remained essentially unchanged. At the same time, the direct effect of the minimum wage on average earnings was amplified by modest wage spillovers at the bottom of the wage distribution. Our estimates by detailed demographic groups show that the lack of job loss is not explained by labor-labor substitution at the bottom of the wage distribution. We also find no evidence of disemployment when we consider higher levels of minimum wages. However, we do find some evidence of reduced employment in tradable sectors. In contrast to our bunching-based estimates, we show that conventional studies can produce misleading inference due to spurious changes in employment higher up in the wage distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2018): Minimum wage analysis using a pre-committed research design. Evidence through 2016. (IZA discussion paper 11427), Bonn, 41 S.

Abstract

"This paper presents results from the first year of a multi-year, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent state-level minimum wage changes. Through 2015 and 2016, we estimate that relatively large statutory minimum wage increases have reduced employment among low-skilled population groups by just under 1.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are more variable and include both moderately large positive values and modest negative values. Our estimates of the effects of increases linked to inflation-indexing provisions are also quite variable, taking a small positive value on average across specifications. Results including 2016 diverge nontrivially when we compare estimates using the American Community Survey (ACS) to estimates using the Current Population Survey (CPS), with estimates tending to be more negative in the ACS. Analysis of future data will be needed to determine whether this difference across surveys is most appropriately attributed to sampling variations or to some other cause." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Danziger, Eliav & Leif Danziger (2018): The optimal graduated minimum wage and social welfare. (IZA discussion paper 11386), Bonn, 22 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyzes the effects of introducing a graduated minimum wage in a model with optimal income taxation in which a government seeks to maximize social welfare. It shows that the optimal graduated minimum wage increases social welfare by increasing the low-productivity workers' consumption and bringing it closer to the first-best. The paper also describes how the graduated minimum wage in a social welfare optimum depends on important economy characteristics such as the government's revenue needs, the social welfare weight of low-productivity workers, and the numbers and productivities of the different types of workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))