Zitatform

Abbate, Nicolás & Bruno Jiménez (2026): Do minimum wage hikes lead to employment destruction? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design in Argentina. In: Journal of Development Economics, Jg. 178. DOI:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103558

Abstract

"In this study, we examine the impact of eight minimum wage increases in Argentina during the early 21st century by analyzing administrative records of registered employment. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design, we compare job separation rates between a group affected by the minimum wage hikes and a control group slightly out of their legal scope. Our findings indicate that, overall, these minimum wage hikes had no significant impact on separation rates. However, the 2008 increase triggered a 4.8 percentage point (19%) decrease in separations, casting doubt on the disemployment effects of minimum wages. Overall, these findings suggest that during economic upswings, minimum wage increases may have little to no adverse impact on job destruction." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

Zitatform

Abraham, Martin (2026): Theoretische Paradigmen und Mechanismen in der arbeitsmarktpolitischen Politikberatung. In: Sozialer Fortschritt, Jg. 75, H. 3, S. 305-326. DOI:10.3790/sfo.2026.1482902

Abstract

"Der Beitrag untersucht die Rolle theoretischer Paradigmen in der arbeitsmarktpolitischen Politikberatung. Er argumentiert, dass arbeitsmarktökonomische Kontroversen weniger auf unvereinbaren Weltbildern beruhen als auf unterschiedlichen Gewichtungen kausaler Mechanismen. Rekonstruiert werden ein Markt- und Wettbewerbsparadigma sowie ein Macht- und Ungleichheitsparadigma, die als Selektionsapparate für plausible Wirkungszusammenhänge fungieren. Am Beispiel des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns wird gezeigt, wie beide Perspektiven zu unterschiedlichen ex-ante-Prognosen gelangen und wie empirische Evidenz diese nur kontextabhängig stützt. Der Beitrag plädiert für eine mechanismenbasierte Politikberatung, die konkurrierende Wirkungsannahmen, Zielkonflikte und Unsicherheiten explizit macht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Albagli, Pinjas, Rui Costa & Stephen Machin (2026): Minimum wages and the nature of work. (CEP discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance 2173), London, 79 S.

Abstract

"When minimum wage increases impose a cost shock on employers of low wage workers, there are a variety of ways in which firms can adjust. Rather than study the main focal point of much minimum wage research, possible labour demand adjustment, this paper considers a more understudied angle. It examines whether firms can offset the cost shock through changing non-wage aspects of work related to the nature of work. This includes altering employment composition in the workplace, the use of alternative work arrangements and redefining job contracts. Whether these alter in response to minimum wages is studied through the lens of the UK's 2016 National Living Wage (NLW) introduction. In terms of traditionally studied outcomes, the NLW boosted worker wages, but with no change in total employment. Instead, firms did indeed adjust operations through changes in employment composition and by altering employment contracts. These non-labour demand adjustments of employment relations show how employment stability can be maintained in response to minimum wages as employers can restructure work through within-firm job composition and contracts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Biewen, Martin & Pascal Erhardt (2026): Using post-regularization distribution regression to measure the effects of a minimum wage on hourly wages, hours worked and monthly earnings. In: The econometrics journal, Jg. 29, H. 1, S. 87-105. DOI:10.1093/ectj/utaf014

Abstract

"We evaluate the distributional effects of a minimum wage introduction based on a data set with a moderate sample size but a large number of potential covariates. In this context, the selection of relevant control variables at each distributional threshold is crucial to test hypotheses about the impact of the continuous treatment variable. To this end, we use the post-double selection logistic distribution regression approach proposed by Belloni et al. (2018a), which allows for uniformly valid inference about the target coefficients of our low-dimensional treatment variables across the entire outcome distribution. Our empirical results show that the minimum wage replaced hourly wages below the minimum threshold, increased monthly earnings in the lower-middle segment but not at the very bottom of the distribution, and did not significantly affect the distribution of working hours." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Biewen, Martin, Bernd Fitzenberger & Marian Rümmele (2026): Using Distribution Regression Difference-in-Differences to Evaluate the Effects of a Minimum Wage Introduction on the Distributions of Wages, Earnings, and Working Hours. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 1-25. DOI:10.1002/jae.70088

Abstract

"We estimate the causal effects of the introduction of the minimum wage in Germany on the distributions of hourly wages, monthly earnings, and hours worked, combining rich large-scale data sources. We compare linear and non-linear versions of distribution regression difference-in-differences (DR-DiD) and also estimate bivariate DR-DiD. We show that the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015 led to shifts in low hourly wages around the minimum wage threshold including spillover effects up to 50%–70% above. We present evidence for working hours effects in different parts of the hours distribution, though the magnitudes are small. The minimum wage explains a sizeable share of the recent fall in wage and earnings inequality. We show that groups that were later more strongly affected by the minimum wage already experienced higher wage growth before the introduction, leading to an overestimation of minimum wage effects if not accounted for." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

Zitatform

Blau, Francine D., Isaac Cohen, Matthew Comey, Lawrence M. Kahn & Nikolai Boboshko (2026): The Minimum Wage and Inequality between Groups. In: ILR review, S. 1-35. DOI:10.1177/00197939261464977

Abstract

"Using 1979–2019 Current Population Survey data, the authors study the effect of state and federal minimum wage policies on gender, race, and ethnic inequality. They find that minimum wages substantially reduce intergroup wage inequality at least up to the 20th wage percentile, with no evidence of adverse employment effects. The authors conduct counterfactual simulations of between-group inequality due to minimum wage changes since 1979. Declines in the real minimum wage in the 1980s slowed progress in narrowing between-group inequality. Relatively small changes in minimum wages during 1989–1998 and 1998–2007 meant little role for the minimum wage over those time spans. Since 2007, several states have steeply raised their minimum wages, especially raising Hispanics’ relative wages, because they earn low wages and reside disproportionately in those states. Finally, findings show that raising the federal minimum wage to roughly $14.50/hour in 2025 dollars would reduce existing between-group wage gaps below the 15th percentile by 25–50%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Borgschulte, Mark, Heepyung Cho & Darren Lubotsky (2026): Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2026,103), Berlin, 44 S.

Abstract

"We examine the differential effects of minimum wages on immigrant and native workers in the United States. We find that minimum wage increases lead to reduced hours of work among immigrants with no effect on their employment. The effects are concentrated among recently-arrived, likely-undocumented workers in high turnover industries. Native workers show no such response, even when examining native subgroups with similar characteristics to the most affected immigrants. We conclude that affected immigrant labor markets feature low-surplus, low-investment employment relationships with flexible hours, but they are embedded in labor markets where replacement is unusually costly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bossler, Mario, Ying Liang & Thorsten Schank (2026): The devil is in the details: Heterogeneous effects of the German minimum wage on working hours and minijobs. In: Journal of Public Economics, Jg. 253, 2025-11-18. DOI:10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105540

Abstract

"Germany introduced a national minimum wage in 2015. While prior studies find limited effects on overall employment, we go into detail and examine its impact on working hours and minijobs. The minimum wage significantly reduces inequality in hourly and monthly wages. While average working hours remain stable, minijobbers experience notable cuts in working hours, which can be explained by the institutional context shaping the effects of the minimum wage. Employment in regular jobs remains unaffected, but minijobs decline, driven by transitions into both regular jobs and non-employment. The latter implies an employment elasticity of −0.16 for minijob employment. Following the first major minimum wage increase in 2022, we reveal a reduction in working hours that is not limited to minijobs, corresponding to an employment volume elasticity of −0.38." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

Zitatform

Bossler, Mario & Martin Popp (2026): Zu den Anträgen einer Reform des Mindestlohngesetzes. Stellungnahme des IAB zur öffentlichen Anhörung im Ausschuss für Arbeit und Soziales des Deutschen Bundestags am 12.1.2026. (IAB-Stellungnahme 01/2026), Nürnberg, 12 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.SN.2601

Abstract

"Der Ausschuss für Arbeit und Soziales des Deutschen Bundestages hat am 12.1.2026 eine öffentliche Anhörung zu den beiden Anträgen „Mindestlohngesetz reformieren - 15 Euro pro Stunde sicherstellen“ und „Mindestlohn auf 15 Euro anheben und dauerhaft armutsfest machen“ durchgeführt, an der das IAB teilgenommen hat. In seiner Stellungnahme diskutiert das IAB die wissenschaftlichen Evaluationsergebnisse zum gesetzlichen Mindestlohn und beurteilt die Vorschläge zur Reform des Mindestlohngesetzes." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Bossler, Mario & Martin Popp (2026): Labor Demand on a Tight Leash. In: ILR review, Jg. 79, H. 4, S. 617-651., 2025-10-21. DOI:10.1177/00197939261435961

Abstract

"Using detailed information on vacancies and job seekers, the authors study the effect of labor market tightness on labor demand for the near-universe of German firms. To this end, novel Bartik instruments are constructed that combine firms’ predetermined employment shares with nationwide shifts at the occupational level. The results show that tightness significantly reduces firms’ labor demand, implying that the observed doubling in tightness between 2012 and 2019 reduced employment by 5%. At the aggregate level, the negative tightness effect creates search externalities, which reduce the own-wage elasticity of labor demand from −0.7 to −0.5 through reallocation of workers between firms. To guide the analysis, the authors embed elements of the canonical search-and-matching model into a labor demand equation, while allowing vacancy posting costs to increase in tight markets. Through the lens of this model, the pre-match component of hiring costs amounts to 16–24% of annual wage payments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Sage) ((en))

Zitatform

Carta, Francesca & Fabrizio Colonna (2026): Minimum income and household labour supply. In: International Tax and Public Finance, Jg. 33, H. 2, S. 514-547. DOI:10.1007/s10797-025-09918-4

Abstract

"This paper examines the impact of Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) schemes on work incentives at the household level. We show that these schemes create strategic complementarities between partners’ employment decisions. When one partner is non-employed or earns a low wage, the household is more likely to receive the benefit, which discourages the other partner from working to avoid losing the benefit. The disincentive to work does not instead apply to partners of high earners whose income exceeds the programme threshold. This leads the partners to coordinate their decisions so that both are non-employed. The negative impact of the GMI on labour supply is therefore more pronounced in economies with many single-earner households. Focusing on Italy, where the employment rate of married women is low and a relatively generous GMI programme was introduced in 2019, we use a structural labour supply model to estimate that the GMI would primarily reduce the employment rate of married men with non-working wives and increase the number of households in which neither partner works. Married women would be less affected due to the high employment rate of their husbands." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

Zitatform

Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2026): The heterogeneous effects of large and small minimum wage changes on hours worked: Evidence using a partially pre-committed analysis plan. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 262. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2026.112852

Abstract

"We use a partially pre-committed estimation strategy to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data from 2011–2019, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, while the effects of smaller minimum wage increases are economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Because we follow the same pre-committed analysis plan as Clemens and Strain’s (forthcoming) analysis of employment, we can directly compare the resulting employment and hours elasticities. We find that these elasticities were very similar in our empirical context." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

Zitatform

Davies, Michael, R. Jisung Park & Anna Stansbury (2026): Minimum Wages and Workplace Injuries. (Upjohn Institute working paper 428), Kalamazoo, Mich., 62 S., App. DOI:10.17848/wp26-428

Zitatform

Drechsel-Grau, Moritz (2026): Employment and Reallocation Effects of Higher Minimum Wages. In: Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics. DOI:10.1086/741546

Abstract

"This paper studies the employment and reallocation effects of minimum wages in Germany in a search-and-matching model with endogenous job search effort and vacancy posting, multiple employment levels, a progressive tax-transfer system, and worker and firm heterogeneity. I find that minimum wages up to 70% of the median wage significantly increase productivity, hours worked and output without reducing employment. In frictional labor markets, however, reallocation takes time whenever the minimum wage cuts deep into the wage distribution. I show that gradually implementing a high minimum wage is necessary to avoid elevated unemployment rates during the transition." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Faia, Ester, Benjamin Lochner & Benjamin Schoefer (2026): Monopsony, Markdowns, and Minimum Wages. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34699), London, 80 S.

Abstract

"This paper presents the first direct test of two interlinked predictions at the core of the monopsony theory of the labor market: (i) that firms exploit wage-setting power by marking down wages below the marginal revenue product of labor, and (ii) that exogenous wage constraints, if binding, eliminate markdowns. Our research design revisits the 2015 introduction of a high minimum wage in Germany. Drawing on a monopsony model, we derive an empirically tractable difference-in-differences specification that provides a quantitative benchmark for the firm-level markdown response. Our main result is that empirical markdowns respond only 0–25% as much as the monopsony model would have predicted. Hence, at least for the labor market segment we study, (i) markdowns largely reflect other distortions than monopsony, (ii) markdowns are mismeasured, (iii) minimum wages induce widespread labor shortages, or (iv) the standard monopsony model does not provide a full, realistic account of the labor market." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Faia, Ester, Benjamin Lochner & Benjamin Schoefer (2026): Monopsony, Markdowns, and Minimum Wages. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 21058), London, 80 S.

Abstract

"This paper presents the first direct test of two interlinked predictions at the core of the monopsony theory of the labor market: (i) that firms exploit wage-setting power by marking down wages below the marginal revenue product of labor, and (ii) that exogenous wage constraints, if binding, eliminate markdowns. Our research design revisits the 2015 introduction of a high minimum wage in Germany. Drawing on a monopsony model, we derive an empirically tractable difference-indifferences specification that provides a quantitative benchmark for the firm-level markdown response. Our main result is that empirical markdowns respond only 0–25% as much as the monopsony model would have predicted. Hence, at least for the labor market segment we study, (i) markdowns largely reflect other distortions than monopsony, (ii) markdowns are mismeasured, (iii) minimum wages induce widespread labor shortages, or (iv) the standard monopsony model does not provide a full, realistic account of the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Fanfani, Bernardo (2026): Contractual Minimum Wages and Collective Bargaining. Italian Evidence From 40 Years of Data. In: Industrial Relations, S. 1-19. DOI:10.1111/irel.70034

Abstract

"This study documents the evolution of minimum wages bargained in Italian collective contracts over a 40-year period (1983–2023). Real minimum wages have grown over the last three decades, particularly among high-skilled occupations, but the 2022–2023 inflation crisis eroded this growth. Nominal minimum wage growth is strongly correlated with inflation, but not with sectoral productivity and unemployment, which is consistent with coordination across industries and real rigidity. Increasing differences between high- and low-skilled occupation minimum wages explain around one-third of the overall growth in the inequality of full-time equivalent daily wages that has occurred in Italy during the 1990s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Fechter, Charlotte, Jan Philipp Bergien & Werner Sesselmeier (2026): Beschäftigungseffekte staatlicher Mindestlohnpolitik. In: Sozialer Fortschritt, Jg. 75, H. 3, S. 373-395. DOI:10.3790/sfo.2026.1482905

Abstract

"In Deutschland gibt es zwei Arten von Mindestlöhnen: einen gesetzlichen sowie mehrere auf Branchenebene vereinbarte. Bei keiner Art bestätigen sich die von der Neoklassik unterstellten Beschäftigungswirkungen. Gleichwohl gibt es Unterschiede in den beschäftigungspolitischen Reaktionen, die auf die Relevanz von institutionen- und verhaltensökonomischen Einflüssen hindeuten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Frangioni, Tommaso & Stella Volturo (2026): Organising Changes: The Institutional Work Behind the Implementation of a Minimum Income Scheme. In: Social Policy and Administration, Jg. 60, H. 4, S. 596-605. DOI:10.1111/spol.70026

Abstract

"Policy implementation at the local level is often influenced by the interplay between institutional frameworks and the discretionary power of street-level bureaucrats. This study examines how local welfare agencies in two Italian regions have reacted to the introduction of the Reddito di Cittadinanza (RdC), the Italian minimum income scheme. Through qualitative research, including interviews with social workers and their managers, this study explores how local actors mediate national policies and navigate structural constraints in a rapidly changing context, adapting the measure and at the same time reorganising their working contexts. The findings show that the implementation of the RdC has led to significant organisational adaptations, including the emergence of informal coordination mechanisms and new forms of professional discretion. Whilst the policy was designed to standardise welfare practises, its practical application varies across local contexts, highlighting the tensions between national mandates and local agency. The findings underscore the pivotal role of street-level bureaucrats in shaping policy implementation, often serving as conduits for interpreting and adapting measures to align with local needs. This research contributes to the extant literature on policy implementation by demonstrating the value of an organisational perspective in understanding welfare policy processes, transcending the conventional divide between top-down and bottom-up approaches. The study's findings imply that a sustained investment in local capacities is important to ensure the efficacy of policy measures. Future welfare reforms could benefit from the insights of this case study by integrating local agency and professional expertise into social policy design." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

Giupponi, Giulia & Stephen Machin (2026): Company Wage Policy in a Low-Wage Labor Market. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 21345), London, 72 S.

Abstract

"We study how firms set wages for their employees when they can legally age-discriminate across workers. We exploit an age-specific minimum wage change in the UK, which raised the minimum applying to workers aged 25 and over, leaving unchanged the minima for younger workers. Using matched employer-employee data on a low-paying sector, we show large, positive wage spillovers on workers aged under 25, which arise within firms from company wage policy. Pay equity norms offer the most parsimonious explanation for the emergence of spillovers. The effects that we document also operate in other low-paying sectors of the UK labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))