Zitatform

(2020): Wirtschaft erholt sich vom Corona-Schock - aber keine schnelle Rückkehr zur alten Normalität. In: Konjunktur aktuell, Jg. 8, H. 3, S. 65-98.

Abstract

"Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Weltwirtschaft im ersten Halbjahr 2020 drastisch einbrechen lassen. Im Sommer wurden viele Aktivitäten aber wiederaufgenommen, und ein großer Teil des Einbruchs dürfte im zweiten Halbjahr wieder wettgemacht werden. Einige wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten wie der Tourismus oder Verkehrsdienstleistungen werden allerdings noch eine Weile eingeschränkt bleiben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"Die Krise, mit der wir aufgrund der COVID-19-Pandemie konfrontiert sind, verursacht nicht nur großes menschliches Leid, sondern wirkt sich auch in sozioökonomischer Hinsicht äußerst nachteilig aus. Daher ist es von entscheidender Bedeutung, dass die Union und ihre Mitgliedstaaten entschlossen, kollektiv und im Geiste der Solidarität handeln, um die Ausbreitung des Virus einzudämmen, den Patienten zu helfen und wirtschaftliche Schäden sowie negative sozioökonomische Auswirkungen abzufedern. (…) Wie in der Mitteilung vom 13. März 2020 angekündigt, ist die Union bereit, die Mitgliedstaaten so gut wie möglich zu unterstützen, um Auswirkungen auf die Beschäftigung und auf besonders stark betroffene Sektoren abzumildern. Das dem Rat vorgeschlagene neue Instrument zur vorübergehenden Unterstützung bei der Minderung von Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiken in einer Krise (Support mitigating Unemployment Risks in Emergency, SURE) ist ein ergänzendes befristetes Instrument, das finanziellen Beistand in Höhe von bis zu 100 Mrd. EUR in Form von Darlehen der Union an die betroffenen Mitgliedstaaten ermöglicht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"The devastating losses in working hours caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have brought a “massive” drop in labour income for workers around the world, says the International Labour Organization (ILO) in its latest assessment of the effects of the pandemic on the world of work. Global labour income is estimated to have declined by 10.7 per cent, or US$ 3.5 trillion, in the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the same period in 2019. This figure excludes income support provided through government measures. The biggest drop was in lower-middle income countries, where the labour income losses reached 15.1 per cent, with the Americas the hardest hit region at 12.1 per cent. The ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Sixth edition , says that the global working hour losses in the first nine months of 2020 have been “considerably larger” than estimated in the previous edition of the Monitor (issued on 30 June). " (Author's Abstract, IAB-Doku)

Abstract

"In light of the growing negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on national labour markets and people’s lives and livelihoods, the role of career guidance has become ever more important to individuals, families, communities, the workforce, employers and society. This report is based on a flash joint international survey, designed to provide a snapshot of how career guidance policies, systems and services were adapting and coping, following the declaration of the world Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020. The survey, launched on 8 June 2020 and closed on 3 August 2020, included an exploration of these policies, systems and practices (focusing on remote and ICT-based delivery) in the context of the early phase of government reactions to the pandemic, the extent to which the pandemic and its social consequences triggered a debate on career guidance reform, and the role for career guidance in pandemic recovery measures. It also considered the support role of international and donor bodies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Cedefop’s ambassadors for tackling early leaving from education and training call for further support to address the needs of learners at risk and ensure their equal access to quality distance learning. The coronavirus pandemic disrupted the education and training of an entire generation of vocational education and training (VET) learners. Those already at risk – from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds, migrants and from ethnic minorities, learners with disabilities and special education needs – often find themselves out of school. With schools being closed, they risk falling further behind, while further disruption to their learning is imminent if distance learning is not ensured. At the same time, they are at increased risk of violence, abuse and neglect, as families and households are locked down. Examples of initiatives from seven European countries in Cedefop’s new report show the efforts made to ensure that learning continues for all VET learners, as well as to support VET teachers and trainers who had to convert physical classrooms and working places into digital learning environments overnight. According to the report, VET teachers and trainers face challenges such as no access to equipment and internet connection required to offer distance learning; lack of digital skills and competences to make efficient use of the platforms; poor experience in creating digital teaching content; no experience in e-learning and other distance learning pedagogies in VET, especially for teaching practical components; concerns over privacy issues, copyright and data protection. The report also points out that learners at risk, not participating in distance education, disconnect for a longer period and may eventually drop out of their VET programme. Prior to the pandemic, European countries had made significant progress in lowering the rates of early leaving from education and training, results which should be sustained in the post-coronavirus era. Cedefop’s VET toolkit for tackling early leaving has never been more important in supporting policy-makers and VET practitioners to prevent early leaving." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Der DIHK hat erneut die Unternehmen zu ihren Ausbildungserfahrungen und -plänen befragt. In der Zeit vom 15. bis 19. Juni 2020 konnten sich Unternehmen online an der Befragung beteiligen. Die Auswahl und Ansprache der Unternehmen erfolgte über die Industrie- und Handelskammern. Insgesamt beteiligten sich 15.001 Unternehmen an der Online-Umfrage. Die Ergebnisse: Das betriebliche Ausbildungsplatzangebot wird in diesem Jahr niedriger ausfallen als im Vorjahr. Die Bewerbungsprozesse in den Unternehmen sind ins Stocken geraten. Einstellungen verzögern sich vielerorts. Es gibt aber immer noch vielfältige Chancen. Die Übernahmeperspektiven für ausgebildete Fachkräfte sind auch dieses Jahr gut. Betriebe gestalten Ausbildungsalltag durch kreative Lösungen. Digitales wichtiger denn je – Nachholbedarf bei den Berufsschulen. " (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Noy, Ilan & Sharlan Shields (2019): The 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Epidemic. A Retroactive Examination of Economic Costs. (ADB economics working paper series 591), Manila, 15 S. DOI:10.22617/WPS190469-2

Abstract

"The 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic was the first epidemic of the 21st century to pose a threat to global health and generate considerable panic across the globe. Fortunately, due to the rapid containment of the epidemic, both the harm to the public’s health and economic losses were not as considerable as many feared they might be. After a short period of economic turmoil, lasting a few months, normal patterns of economic activity were resumed. However, during this period there were dramatic reductions in air travel and tourism, and leisure and/or hospitality services in the areas affected by SARS. These losses were driven by public avoidance, which contributed to a disproportionate aggregate disease prevention cost. This has led to concerns that an outbreak exhibiting higher mortality rates could result in a catastrophic impact on the global economy caused by even more drastic behavioral responses. These behavioral responses were related to individual perspectives about the risk of contraction and death, as well as the perceived costs and benefits of disease avoidance measures. How individuals form these avoidance responses has a significant role in determining the pathway of an epidemic. When situating these considerations within the trend of increasing emergence of zoonotic diseases and increasing globalization, analyses of the behavioral reaction to the SARS epidemic are potentially important. With this in mind, critical analysis of government intervention mechanisms is considered to address how cost-effective intervention might alter behavioral responses to lead to more positive outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Noy, Ilan, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park (2019): Measuring the economic risk of epidemics. (CESifo working paper 8016), München, 18 S.

Abstract

"We measure the economic risk of epidemics at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the epidemic hazard prediction, we use data from 2014-2019 to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of an epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard (the zoonotic source of a possible epidemic), the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy's resilience (its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of epidemics is particularly high in most Africa, the Indian subcontinent, China, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc (equal) weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, with one based on an estimation algorithm using Disability-Adjusted Life Years associated with communicable diseases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Hauck, Katharina (2018): The economics of infectious diseases. In: Oxford research encyclopedias. Economics and finance Oxford: Oxford University Press, Oxford, Oxford University Press S. 1-30. DOI:10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.251

Abstract

"Economics can make immensely valuable contributions to our understanding of infectious disease transmission and the design of effective policy responses. The one unique characteristic of infectious diseases makes it also particularly complicated to analyze: the fact that it is transmitted from person to person. It explains why individuals’ behavior and externalities are a central topic for the economics of infectious diseases. Many public health interventions are built on the assumption that individuals are altruistic and consider the benefits and costs of their actions to others. This would imply that even infected individuals demand prevention, which stands in conflict with the economic theory of rational behavior. Empirical evidence is conflicting for infected individuals. For healthy individuals, evidence suggests that the demand for prevention is affected by real or perceived risk of infection. However, studies are plagued by underreporting of preventive behavior and non-random selection into testing. Some empirical studies have shown that the impact of prevention interventions could be far greater than one case prevented, resulting in significant externalities. Therefore, economic evaluations need to build on dynamic transmission models in order to correctly estimate these externalities. Future research needs are significant. Economic research needs to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission; support the better integration of economic and epidemiological modeling, evaluation of large-scale public health interventions with quasi-experimental methods, design of optimal subsidies for tackling the global threat of antimicrobial resistance, refocusing the research agenda toward underresearched diseases; and most importantly to assure that progress translates into saved lives on the ground by advising on effective health system strengthening." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Adda, Jérôme (2016): Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases. Evidence from High Frequency Data. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Jg. 131, H. 2, S. 891-941. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjw005

Abstract

"Viruses are a major threat to human health, and - given that they spread through social interactions - represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the incidence of a number of viral diseases across space, for different age groups, over a quarter of a century. We use quasi-experimental variation to evaluate the importance of policies reducing interpersonal contacts such as school closures or the closure of public transportation networks. While these policies significantly reduce disease prevalence, we find that they are not cost-effective. We find that expansions of transportation networks have significant health costs in increasing the spread of viruses, and that propagation rates are pro-cyclically sensitive to economic conditions and increase with inter-regional trade." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Fan, Victoria Y., Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers (2016): The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk. (NBER working paper 22137), Cambridge, Mass., 24S. DOI:10.3386/w22137

Abstract

"Estimates of the long-term annual cost of global warming lie in the range of 0.2-2% of global income. This high cost has generated widespread political concern and commitment as manifested in the Paris agreements of December, 2015. Analyses in this paper suggest that the expected annual cost of pandemic influenza falls in the same range as does that of climate change although toward the low end. In any given year a small likelihood exists that the world will again suffer a very severe flu pandemic akin to the one of 1918. Even a moderately severe pandemic, of which at least 6 have occurred since 1700, could lead to 2 million or more excess deaths. World Bank and other work has assessed the probable income loss from a severe pandemic at 4-5% of global GNI. The economics literature points to a very high intrinsic value of mortality risk, a value that GNI fails to capture. In this paper we use findings from that literature to generate an estimate of pandemic cost that is inclusive of both income loss and the cost of elevated mortality. We present results on an expected annual basis using reasonable (although highly uncertain) estimates of the annual probabilities of pandemics in two bands of severity. We find: 1. Expected pandemic deaths exceed 700,000 per year worldwide with an associated annual mortality cost of estimated at $490 billion. We use published figures to estimate expected income loss at $80 billion per year and hence the inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income (range: 0.4-1.0%). 2. For moderately severe pandemics about 40% of inclusive cost results from income loss. For severe pandemics this fraction declines to 12%: the intrinsic cost of elevated mortality becomes completely dominant. 3. The estimates of mortality cost as a % of GNI range from around 1.6% in lower-middle income countries down to 0.3% in high-income countries, mostly as a result of much higher pandemic death rates in lower-income environments. 4. The distribution of pandemic severity has an exceptionally fat tail: about 95% of the expected cost results from pandemics that would be expected to kill over 7 million people worldwide." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Verikios, George, Maura Sullivan, Pane Stojanovski, James Giesecke & Gordon Woo (2016): Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza. A Scenario Analysis. In: The World Economy, Jg. 39, H. 8, S. 1225-1255. DOI:10.1111/twec.12296

Abstract

"We analyse the economic risks from two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence‐infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence - low infectiousness event and a low virulence - high infectiousness event. Our analysis involves linking an epidemiological model and a quarterly computable general equilibrium model. We find that global economic activity is more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. Regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy face greater risks of negative effects than less integrated regions." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

James, Steven & Tim Sargent (2007): The Economic Impact of an Influenza Pandemic. (Working paper. Department of Finance 2007-04), Ottawa, 88 S.

Abstract

"In this paper we examine the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on the economy. We use historical data to understand how past pandemics affected human health, human behaviour and the economy while also accounting for subsequent relevant economic and social changes. We find that previous pandemics and SARS had limited economic effects and that a 1918-type pandemic would likely reduce annual GDP growth by up to 1 percentage point in the pandemic year. Economic and social changes since 1918 would not likely imply significantly greater impacts today than in 1918. The demand and absenteeism impacts of a pandemic would be unevenly distributed across sectors. Small work units in which employees engage in a high degree of social interaction could expect higher peak absenteeism than larger work units with less social interaction. The natural resilience of market economies as well as reallocations of spending across sectors and across time would tend to mitigate the aggregate economic effects of a pandemic. If a pandemic were to occur, human suffering and loss of life would outweigh economic concerns." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))