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Digitale Arbeitswelt – Chancen und Herausforderungen für Beschäftigte und Arbeitsmarkt

Der digitale Wandel der Arbeitswelt gilt als eine der großen Herausforderungen für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Wie arbeiten wir in Zukunft? Welche Auswirkungen hat die Digitalisierung und die Nutzung Künstlicher Intelligenz auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitsmarkt? Welche Qualifikationen werden künftig benötigt? Wie verändern sich Tätigkeiten und Berufe? Welche arbeits- und sozialrechtlichen Konsequenzen ergeben sich daraus?
Dieses Themendossier dokumentiert Forschungsergebnisse zum Thema in den verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereichen und Regionen.
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Who uses Generative AI? Patterns and inequalities across the EU: Employment and labour markets (2026)

    Adăscăliței, Dragoș ;

    Zitatform

    Adăscăliței, Dragoș (2026): Who uses Generative AI? Patterns and inequalities across the EU. Employment and labour markets. (Eurofound working paper), Dublin, 19 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper describes generative AI use patterns across EU27 Member States in 2025, analysing crossnational variation and socio-demographic inequalities based on Eurostat aggregate data. Overall use of generative AI reaches 32.7% at the EU27 level, ranging from 17.8% in Romania to 48.4% in Denmark. Country patterns do not follow clear geographic clustering, with high and low adopters distributed across all European regions. Private use systematically exceeds professional use, whilst educational use remains concentrated among young populations. Educational attainment emerges as a strong predictor of AI use, with high-educated individuals using generative AI at more than double the rate of low-educated individuals. Age is also a strong predictor, with 63.8% of those aged 16-24 having used generative AI in the past three months compared to just 6.5% of those aged 65 and above. The gender gaps in AI use are moderate but widen with education. In terms of broad occupational groups, the analysis demonstrates that uptake is heavily skewed towards ICT professions. Labour force status also matters decisively, with students (72.0%) far exceeding employed (36.4%), unemployed (28.3%), and retired/inactive populations (12.9%) in technology usage. These patterns reveal stratified diffusion of generative AI use with implications for labour market inequalities across the EU." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics (2026)

    Afrouzi, Hassan; Drenik, Andrés; Blanco, Andres; Hurst, Erik ;

    Zitatform

    Afrouzi, Hassan, Andres Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2026): Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 35157), Cambridge, Mass, 58 S.

    Abstract

    "We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier of tasks managers maintain, and the worker-to-manager career transition. Economies with high learning capacity admit pairs of stationary equilibria strictly ranked by the aggregate learning rate. Cheaper technology has opposite effects across the two: in the high-learning equilibrium, it raises welfare through the learning channel itself; in the low-learning equilibrium, it tips the economy into a human-capital trap. The planner's first-best combines a tax on automation profits with a subsidy on frontier-maintenance expenditures at a common rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model (2026)

    Agrawal, Ajay K.; Oettl, Alexander ; McHale, John ;

    Zitatform

    Agrawal, Ajay K., John McHale & Alexander Oettl (2026): Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34781), Cambridge, Mass, 44 S.

    Abstract

    "The task-based approach has become the dominant framework for studying the labor-market effects of artificial intelligence (AI), typically emphasizing the replacement of human workers by machines. Motivated by growing empirical evidence that contemporary AI is more often used as a tool that augments workers, this paper develops two related task-based models in which AI enhances worker productivity without automating tasks. Abstracting from capital, we develop a pair of related task-based models that examine how technological progress in AI that provides new tools to augment workers affects aggregate productivity and wage inequality. Both models emphasize the role of human capital in intermediating the effects of AI-related technological shocks. In the first model, AI use requires specialized expertise, and technological progress expands the set of tasks for which such expertise is effective. We show that a larger supply of AI expertise amplifies the productivity gains from improvements in AI technology while attenuating its adverse effects on wage inequality. The second model focuses on non-AI skills, allowing AI tools to alter the set of tasks that workers can perform given their skills. In equilibrium, workers allocate across tasks in response to wages, generating an endogenous distribution of skills across the task space. A central result is that aggregate productivity and wage inequality depend on different global properties of this equilibrium distribution: productivity is particularly sensitive to thinly staffed tasks that create bottlenecks, while wage inequality is driven by the concentration of workers in a narrow set of tasks. As a result, improvements in AI tools can induce non-monotonic co-movement between productivity and inequality. By linking these mechanisms to multidimensional human capital---including AI expertise and higher-order non-AI skills---the paper highlights the role of education and training policies in shaping the economic consequences of AI-driven technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index (2026)

    Akyildirim, Erdinc; Gozgor, Giray; Bekci, Suzan;

    Zitatform

    Akyildirim, Erdinc, Suzan Bekci & Giray Gozgor (2026): Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index. (CESifo working paper 12653), München, 13 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper constructs an AI Attention Index from LexisNexis news coverage and embeds it within an augmented Phillips curve framework. It then examines the relationship between AI attention and unemployment in the United States using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2025. We find that greater AI attention is associated with lower unemployment. Nonlinear estimates reveal a U-shaped relationship, indicating diminishing marginal effects within the observed data range. The relationship weakens after the onset of COVID-19, with both linear and nonlinear effects reduced. These findings indicate that labour market effects of AI-related expectations are sensitive to macroeconomic regime shifts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms (2026)

    Aldasoro, Iñaki; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Pal, Rozalia; Wolski, Marcin; Weiß, Christoph; Revoltella, Debora;

    Zitatform

    Aldasoro, Iñaki, Leonardo Gambacorta, Rozalia Pal, Debora Revoltella, Christoph Weiß & Marcin Wolski (2026): AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms. (Economics - working papers / European Investment Bank 2026/02), Luxembourg, 32 S. DOI:10.2867/1772538

    Abstract

    "This paper provides new evidence on how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) affects productivity and employment in Europe. Using matched EIBIS-ORBIS data on more than 12,000 non-financial firms in the European Union (EU) and United States (US), we instrument the adoption of AI by EU firms by assigning the adoption rates of US peers to isolate exogenous technological exposure. Our results show that AI adoption increases the level of labor productivity by 4%. Productivity gains are due to capital deepening, as we find no adverse effects on firm-level employment. This suggests that AI increases worker output rather than replacing labor in the short run, though longer-term effects remain uncertain. However, productivity benefits of AI adoption are unevenly distributed and concentrate in medium and large firms. Moreover, AI-adopting firms are more innovative and their workers earn higher wages. Our analysis also highlights the critical role of complementary investments in software and data or workforce training to fully unlock the productivity gains of AI adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of 'Power and Progress' by Acemoglu and Johnson (2026)

    Aldred, Jonathan;

    Zitatform

    Aldred, Jonathan (2026): The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of 'Power and Progress' by Acemoglu and Johnson. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Jg. 78, S. 188-196. DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2026.03.008

    Abstract

    "Task-based models of production have led to a theoretical reappraisal of the effect of new technology on labour demand. This paper critically assesses the policy implications of this research agenda, with particular reference to Acemoglu and Johnson’s recent book, Power and Progress. While Acemoglu and Johnson take welcome steps away from previous orthodoxy, their analysis has several flaws which affect the policy lessons to be drawn, including: (i) the explanation for anti-labour bias is unclear; (ii) worker-friendly technologies are not clearly characterised in theory, and hard to identify in practice; (iii) macroeconomic policy orthodoxy is largely unquestioned. More generally, much of Power and Progress remains unhelpfully constrained by theoretical commitments to mainstream economics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The end of work feels near. How do people perceive the impact of digital technologies and automation? (2026)

    Arntz, Melanie ; Blesse, Sebastian ; Doerrenberg, Philipp ;

    Zitatform

    Arntz, Melanie, Sebastian Blesse & Philipp Doerrenberg (2026): The end of work feels near. How do people perceive the impact of digital technologies and automation? In: Labour Economics, Jg. 102, 2026-05-11. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102897

    Abstract

    "Anxieties about technological change in the context of the labor market are a recurring historical phenomenon. Using customized survey data collected in 2019 in the US and Germany, prior to the recent wave of generative AI applications, we study how respondents perceive the impact of the digital (automation) technologies available at the time of the survey on the labor market. We document that a majority views digital technologies and automation as a major threat to overall employment and as a cause of rising inequality, while a quarter is concerned about their own labor market prospects. Providing scientific information on the likely labor market implications of digital technologies in a randomized experiment reduces these concerns. Yet, treatment responses depend on prior beliefs about the future of work, resulting in heterogeneous and opposing treatment effects on policy demand." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier) ((en))

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    Arntz, Melanie ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Artificial intelligence exposure and occupational wages: Evidence from the United States (2026)

    Atalay, Ozan ;

    Zitatform

    Atalay, Ozan (2026): Artificial intelligence exposure and occupational wages: Evidence from the United States. In: Journal of Economic Studies, S. 1-15. DOI:10.1108/jes-03-2026-0281

    Abstract

    "Purpose: This paper investigates the relationship between occupational exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and wage structures in the United States. While much of the literature focuses on the displacement effects of AI, less attention has been given to its implications for wage outcomes across occupations. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses occupation-level data for 671 occupations, combining wage information with an AI exposure index that captures the extent to which occupations are affected by AI technologies. Cross-sectional regression models with robust standard errors are employed, controlling for employment size and occupational characteristics. Quantile regression is also used to examine variation across the wage distribution. Findings: The results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between AI exposure and wages. Occupations with higher exposure tend to have higher wage levels. This pattern is consistent across model specifications and across the wage distribution. The findings are broadly consistent when using an instrumental variable approach. The association is stronger in occupations with higher cognitive skill intensity. Research limitations/implications: This study is based on occupation-level data rather than individual-level observations, which limits the ability to capture within-occupation wage heterogeneity. In addition, the AI exposure index reflects potential exposure rather than actual adoption at the firm level. Future research could extend this analysis using firm-level or longitudinal data. Practical implications: The findings suggest that occupations with higher exposure to artificial intelligence tend to exhibit higher wages, highlighting the importance of skill upgrading and targeted workforce policies. Policymakers and organizations should focus on enhancing digital skills and supporting workforce transition to maximize the benefits of AI. Social implications: The results indicate that artificial intelligence may contribute to wage differences across occupations by enhancing productivity in certain roles. This highlights the need to ensure equal access to skills and training opportunities so that the benefits of AI are distributed more evenly across the labor market. Originality/value: This study contributes by providing occupation-level evidence on the relationship between AI exposure and wages, shifting attention from employment effects to wage structures. It also highlights that this relationship is partly explained by occupational skill composition, while a residual association remains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Systematic literature review on the digital transformation of the personnel selection process (2026)

    Baranyi, Virág ;

    Zitatform

    Baranyi, Virág (2026): Systematic literature review on the digital transformation of the personnel selection process. In: German Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 223-254. DOI:10.1177/23970022251363012

    Abstract

    "Digital Transformation technologies (DT technologies) are reshaping work processes, including personnel selection, an area traditionally viewed as inherently human-centric. While prior studies have examined various digital technologies in personnel selection, they have not provided sufficient evidence on the different levels of digitalization in selection processes and the factors influencing organizations’ adoption decisions. To address these gaps, this study systematically reviews 94 Scopus-indexed studies to analyze how DT technologies are applied across selection stages, categorizing practices into Manual, Digitalized, and Digitally Transformed approaches. By further distinguishing between Digital Technologies and AI Enhancements, this study offers a structured framework for understanding how organizations integrate digital technologies into selection and what drives or hinders their adoption. The findings highlight both the benefits (efficiency gains, potential bias reduction, improved candidate experience) and challenges (ethical concerns, algorithmic bias, technical and cultural barriers, and candidate perceptions) associated with these technologies, providing insights for both academic research and HR practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Automation Experiments and Inequality (2026)

    Benzell, Seth Gordon; Myers, Kyle R. ;

    Zitatform

    Benzell, Seth Gordon & Kyle R. Myers (2026): Automation Experiments and Inequality. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34668), Cambridge, Mass, 26 S., App. DOI:10.3386/w34668

    Abstract

    "Many experiments study the productivity effects of automation technologies such as generative algorithms. A key test in these experiments relates to inequality: does the technology increase output more for high- or low-skill workers? However, the theoretical content of this empirical test has been unclear. Here, we formalize a theory that describes the experimental effect of automation technologies on worker-level output and, therefore, inequality. Worker-level output depends on a task-level production function, and workers are heterogeneous in their task-level skills. Workers perform a task themselves or delegate it to the automation technology. The inequality effect of improved automation depends on the interaction of two factors: (i) the correlation in task-level skills across workers, and (ii) workers' skills relative to the technology's effective skill. In many cases we study, the inequality effect is non-monotonic --- as technologies improve, inequality decreases then increases. The model and descriptive statistics of skill correlations generally suggest that the diversity of automation technologies will play an important role in the evolution of inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US (2026)

    Bick, Alexander ; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David; Jessen, Jonas ; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola ;

    Zitatform

    Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 102/26), Berlin, 71 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Jessen, Jonas ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US: BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026 (2026)

    Bick, Alexander ; Deming, David J.; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola ; Jessen, Jonas ; Blandin, Adam;

    Zitatform

    Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US. BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Jg. Conference Draft, H. Spring, S. 1-70.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Jessen, Jonas ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA (2026)

    Bick, Alexander ; Blandin, Adam; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola ; Jessen, Jonas ; Deming, David;

    Zitatform

    Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 21337), London, 80 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We find no clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Jessen, Jonas ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Explaining women's skepticism toward artificial intelligence: The role of risk orientation and risk exposure (2026)

    Borwein, Sophie ; Bonikowski, Bart ; Ognyanova, Katherine; Alvarez, R. Michael; Loewen, Peter J.; Magistro, Beatrice ;

    Zitatform

    Borwein, Sophie, Beatrice Magistro, R. Michael Alvarez, Bart Bonikowski & Peter J. Loewen (2026): Explaining women's skepticism toward artificial intelligence: The role of risk orientation and risk exposure. In: PNAS nexus, Jg. 5, H. 1. DOI:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf399

    Abstract

    "This article examines the gender gap in attitudes toward the adoption of AI in the workplace, with a focus on how gender differences in risk orientation and risk exposure drive skepticism toward AI’s economic benefits. Using original surveydata from ∼3,000 respondents across Canada and the United States, we find that women consistently perceive AI to be riskier than men. We identify two key drivers behind this gender gap: women’s higher general risk aversion and their greater exposure to AI-related risks. To establish a causal relationship between risk and AI attitudes, we show experimentally that as the probability of net positive employment effects decreases, women’s support for companies adopting AI falls more sharply than men’s. Finally, structural topic modeling of open-ended responses confirms that women express greater uncertainty about AI’s benefits and more frequently anticipate little to no benefits. Given AI’s potential to exacerbate existing gender inequalities, our study highlights the critical importance of incorporating women’s perspectives into AI policy-making. Policies that do not address gender-specific risks may not only reinforce existing inequalities in employment and income but could also generate political backlash against AI adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Comment on “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong (2026)

    Braxton, J. Carter;

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    Braxton, J. Carter (2026): Comment on “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 159. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103924

    Abstract

    "Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 there has been a surge in the uptake of generative artificial intelligence (AI). The recent advances in AI have also been met with sweeping statements about the potential future employment effects. For example, the CEO of Anthropic said in May 2025 that “AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs - and spike unemployment to 10%–20% in the next one to five years.”1 In their paper, Wang and Wong (2025) develop and quantify an equilibrium model of the labor market to evaluate the potential employment effects of the spread of AI. Their model builds on labor search models with technological change (e.g., Mortensen and Pissarides (1998), and Postel-Vinay (2002)), augmenting the framework to capture the specifics of AI and calibrating it to recent empirical evidence on the impact of AI. The authors arrive at a striking result that the spread of AI will increase productivity by a factor of three but decrease employment by 23%, with approximately half of the increase occurring over the next 5-years. In this comment, I first discuss the central model ingredients of Wang and Wong (2025), which implies that there are both a job creation and job destruction channel of AI. I then discuss how we can learn about the relative strength of the job creation and destruction channels from the spread of computers between the 1980s and early 2000s. Finally, I conclude with avenues for future research." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Der KI-Irrtum: Warum Deutschland auf Zuwanderung angewiesen ist: Leitartikel (2026)

    Brücker, Herbert ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Weber, Enzo ;

    Zitatform

    Brücker, Herbert, Yuliya Kosyakova & Enzo Weber (2026): Der KI-Irrtum: Warum Deutschland auf Zuwanderung angewiesen ist. Leitartikel. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 106, H. 5, S. 304-305. DOI:10.2478/wd-2026-0074

    Abstract

    "Sieben Millionen - so viele Arbeitskräfte wird Deutschland in den nächsten 15 Jahren allein aufgrund des demografischen Wandels verlieren. Bereits seit vielen Jahren ist der demografische Effekt negativ, mit mehr als 400.000 Arbeitskräften pro Jahr. Tatsächlich beginnt der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt jedoch erst jetzt zu schrumpfen. Denn bislang konnte dieser Rückgang überkompensiert werden - durch eine steigende Erwerbsbeteiligung von Älteren und Frauen; und vor allem durch Zuwanderung. Doch diese Ausgleichsmechanismen stoßen zunehmend an Grenzen. Europa altert insgesamt, und die Dynamik der Zuwanderung innerhalb Europas nimmt ab. Zugleich sind viele der besonders mobilen, jüngeren Kohorten bereits gewandert. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird Migration schwieriger - und genau hier setzt ein verbreitetes Argument an: Wenn Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) zunehmend Aufgaben übernimmt, braucht man doch keine zusätzlichen Arbeitskräfte mehr. Diese Folgerung ist ein Trugschluss. Arbeitskräfteknappheit lässt sich gesamtwirtschaftlich nicht einfach wegdigitalisieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Das knappe Gut Arbeit: Automatisierung, Arbeitskräftemangel und sozialer Konflikt (2026)

    Butollo, Florian ;

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    Butollo, Florian (2026): Das knappe Gut Arbeit. Automatisierung, Arbeitskräftemangel und sozialer Konflikt. (Edition Suhrkamp 2815), Berlin: Suhrkamp Verlag, 254 Seiten.

    Abstract

    "Angesichts von Digitalisierung und Künstlicher Intelligenz wird allerorten vor massiven Arbeitsplatzverlusten gewarnt. Gleichzeitig reißen die Klagen über Fachkräftemangel nicht ab, zahllose Stellen bleiben unbesetzt, und dem Pflegesektor droht der Kollaps. Florian Butollo geht diesem Paradoxon auf den Grund und analysiert, warum gerade Automatisierung immer mehr Arbeit schafft – und damit zur Keimzelle eines neuen sozialen Konflikts wird: Die anbrechende Ära der Arbeitskräfteknappheit ist geprägt vom Leiden an Überlastung und den Kämpfen dagegen. Zugleich stellt sich die Frage nach der Sinnhaftigkeit von Arbeit neu: Wofür wollen wir angesichts sozialer und ökologischer Krisen künftig unsere Arbeitskraft einsetzen – und welche Tätigkeiten können verschwinden?" (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era (2026)

    Casas, P.; González-Vázquez, I.; Salotti, S.; Martínez-Plumed, F.; Gómez, E.; Fernández-Macías, E.;

    Zitatform

    Casas, P., E. Fernández-Macías, F. Martínez-Plumed, E. Gómez, I. González-Vázquez & S. Salotti (2026): Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2026,02), Sevilla, 71 S.

    Abstract

    "Generative AI is reshaping what artificial intelligence can do in the workplace, calling into question pre-GenAI assessments of which workers and tasks are most exposed. In this paper we trace the evolution of AI exposure in the European labour market from 2008 to 2024 by linking 352 AI benchmarks to 14 cognitive abilities, 108 work tasks and 127 ISCO-3 occupations, weighting benchmarks by their research intensity in the AI literature and thus deriving AI exposure by cognitive ability. Bundling work tasks into occupations based on intensity indicators, we explore occupational exposure to AI. We find that the cognitive abilities most exposed to the recent surge of AI research are ideas-related, such as attention and search, comprehension and expression and logical reasoning. Because the associated information processing and problem-solving tasks are the most transversal across occupations, we find an exponential increase in AI exposure across all occupational categories of workers, even though comparatively high-skilled occupations are more exposed than elementary occupations. This points at a substantial and transversal labour market impact of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Measuring Task-Based Advanced Automation Technologies & Digital Assistance Systems in the National Educational Panel Study (2026)

    Dicks, Alexander ; Schulz, Benjamin; Grüttgen, Insa; Vicari, Basha ; Ehlert, Martin;

    Zitatform

    Dicks, Alexander, Martin Ehlert, Insa Grüttgen, Benjamin Schulz & Basha Vicari (2026): Measuring Task-Based Advanced Automation Technologies & Digital Assistance Systems in the National Educational Panel Study. (NEPS Survey Papers 128), Bamberg, 31 S. DOI:10.5157/NEPS:SP128:1.0

    Abstract

    "Wir stellen ein neues taskbasiertes Instrument zur Messung der Automatisierung am Arbeitsplatz vor. Dabei bezeichnen wir die Automatisierungstechnologien als „digitale Assistenzsysteme“, die wir als fortschrittliche Automatisierungssysteme definieren, wie beispielsweise Software und Geräte, die Aufgaben automatisch ausführen, um die Arbeitnehmer zu unterstützen. Dazu gehören Chatbots mit künstlicher Intelligenz, Algorithmen zur Bild- und Videoerstellung, Tools für vorausschauende Wartung und Analyse, digitale Anleitungssysteme sowie Wearables und kollaborative Roboter. Aufbauend auf dem taskbasierten Ansatz und unter Berücksichtigung der jüngsten technologischen Fortschritte haben wir für das Nationale Bildungspanel (NEPS) sieben Items entwickelt, die verschiedene Arten von digitalen Assistenzsystemen erfassen. Ergebnisse auf Grundlage von Daten der NEPS-Startkohorten 4 und 6 zeigen, dass die Nutzung der digitalen Assistenzsysteme je nach Alter und Bildungsniveau variiert und mit komplementären beruflichen Aufgaben sowie Indikatoren für die Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz korreliert. Das neue Instrument ergänzt bestehende NEPS-Items zur Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz und bietet Potenzial für eine Längsschnittanalyse des technologischen Wandels am Arbeitsplatz und dessen Auswirkungen auf Qualifikationsanforderungen, Ungleichheit und lebenslanges Lernen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Vicari, Basha ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Biased by Design? Case Managers' Multidimensional Preferences Toward the Design of Algorithmic Decision Support Systems (2026)

    Dietz, Martin ; Sirman-Winkler, Mareike ; Osiander, Christopher ; Tepe, Markus ;

    Zitatform

    Dietz, Martin, Christopher Osiander, Mareike Sirman-Winkler & Markus Tepe (2026): Biased by Design? Case Managers' Multidimensional Preferences Toward the Design of Algorithmic Decision Support Systems. In: Public Administration Review, S. 1-14. DOI:10.1111/puar.70111

    Abstract

    "This study examines whether street-level bureaucrats' preferences toward algorithmic decision support (ADS) induce a unilateral shift of technology-related risks onto clients of the public employment service. Expanding on public value theory and research on moral agency in public service work, we argue that case managers' choices of ADS designs are shaped by a plurality of professional, service, and efficiency values. To test this argument, we conducted a conjoint experiment on a representative sample of German Federal Employment Agency case managers. Respondents compared pairs of hypothetical ADS systems that differed in their design features, reflecting varying degrees of the realization of public values. The empirical results indicate that case managers' choices do not result in biased design. Instead, case managers balance design features reflecting professional and service values while maintaining administrative efficiency. Case managers appreciate ADS support but firmly reject the mandatory use of such advice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

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    Dietz, Martin ; Osiander, Christopher ;
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