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Kerr, Sari Pekkala, William R. Kerr & Kendall E. Smith (2024): Age at Immigrant Arrival and Career Mobility: Evidence from Vietnamese Refugee Migration and the Amerasian Homecoming Act. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 32067), Cambridge, Mass, 35 S.

Abstract

"We study the long-run career mobility of young immigrants, mostly refugees, from Vietnam who moved to the United States during 1989-1995. This third and final migration wave of young Vietnamese immigrants was sparked by unexpected events that culminated in the Amerasian Homecoming Act. Characteristics of the wave also minimized selection effects regarding who migrated. Small differences in the age at arrival, specifically being 14-17 years old on entry compared to 18-21, resulted in substantial differences in future economic outcomes. Using Census Bureau data, we characterize the different career profiles of young vs. older immigrants, and we quantify explanatory factors like education, language fluency, and persistence from initial employers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kotte, Volker & Andrea Stöckmann (2024): Strukturwandel in Hamburg. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nord 03/2024), Nürnberg, 27 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.REN.2403

Abstract

"Dieser Bericht betrachtet den Strukturwandel nach Berufen und beruflichen Anforderungsniveaus für Hamburg. Dabei wird der Zeitraum 1999 bis 2019 mit den zu erwartenden Entwicklungen aus Entwicklungen aus den Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen (QuBe) des IAB für 2020 bis 2040 verglichen. In Zukunft sind geringere Änderungsraten bei Berufen und Anforderungsniveaus zu erwarten als in der Vergangenheit. Damit ändert der berufliche Strukturwandel sein Gesicht. Viele Veränderungsprozesse werden sich in die Berufe verlagern. Statt des personellen Auf- und Abbaus von Branchen oder Berufen werden künftig die einzelnen Tätigkeiten und Anforderungsniveaus im Mittelpunkt stehen. Dieser Wandel stellt Arbeitnehmer vor veränderte Herausforderungen. Die Bedeutung von Bildung und Qualifizierung wird durch einen Ausblick auf die Megatrends Digitalisierung und Dekarbonisierung unterstrichen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kotte, Volker & Andrea Stöckmann (2024): Strukturwandel in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nord 02/2024), Nürnberg, 27 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.REN.2402

Abstract

"Dieser Bericht betrachtet den Strukturwandel nach Berufen und beruflichen Anforderungsniveaus für Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Dabei wird der Zeitraum 1999 bis 2019 mit den zu erwartenden Entwicklungen aus Entwicklungen aus den Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen (QuBe) des IAB für 2020 bis 2040 verglichen. In Zukunft sind geringere Änderungsraten bei Berufen und Anforderungsniveaus zu erwarten als in der Vergangenheit. Damit ändert der berufliche Strukturwandel sein Gesicht. Viele Veränderungsprozesse werden sich in die Berufe verlagern. Statt des personellen Auf- und Abbaus von Branchen oder Berufen werden künftig die einzelnen Tätigkeiten und Anforderungsniveaus im Mittelpunkt stehen. Dieser Wandel stellt Arbeitnehmer vor veränderte Herausforderungen. Die Bedeutung von Bildung und Qualifizierung wird durch einen Ausblick auf die Megatrends Digitalisierung und Dekarbonisierung unterstrichen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kotte, Volker & Andrea Stöckmann (2024): Strukturwandel in Schleswig-Holstein. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nord 01/2024), Nürnberg, 27 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.REN.2401

Abstract

"Dieser Bericht betrachtet den Strukturwandel nach Berufen und beruflichen Anforderungsniveaus für Schleswig-Holstein. Dabei wird der Zeitraum 1999 bis 2019 mit den zu erwartenden Entwicklungen aus Entwicklungen aus den Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen (QuBe) des IAB für 2020 bis 2040 verglichen. In Zukunft sind geringere Änderungsraten bei Berufen und Anforderungsniveaus zu erwarten als in der Vergangenheit. Damit ändert der berufliche Strukturwandel sein Gesicht. Viele Veränderungsprozesse werden sich in die Berufe verlagern. Statt des personellen Auf- und Abbaus von Branchen oder Berufen werden künftig die einzelnen Tätigkeiten und Anforderungsniveaus im Mittelpunkt stehen. Dieser Wandel stellt Arbeitnehmer vor veränderte Herausforderungen. Die Bedeutung von Bildung und Qualifizierung wird durch einen Ausblick auf die Megatrends Digitalisierung und Dekarbonisierung unterstrichen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Moog, Alexander (2024): Internal migration after a uniform minimum wage introduction. (arXiv papers 2404.19590), 47 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2404.19590

Abstract

"Internal migration is an essential aspect to study labor mobility. I exploit the German statutory minimum wage introduction in 2015 to estimate its push and pull effects on internal migration using a 2% sample of administrative data. In a conditional fixed effects Poisson difference-in-differences framework with a continuous treatment, I find that the minimum wage introduction leads to an increase in the out-migration of low-skilled workers with migrant background by 25% with an increasing tendency over time from districts where a high share of workers are subject to the minimum wage (high-bite districts). In contrast the migration decision of native-born low-skilled workers is not affected by the policy. However, both native-born low-skilled workers and those with a migrant background do relocate across establishments, leaving high-bite districts as their workplace. In addition, I find an increase for unemployed individuals with a migrant background in out-migrating from high-bite districts. These results emphasize the importance of considering the effects on geographical labor mobility when implementing and analyzing policies that affect the determinants of internal migration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Müller, Gerrit (2024): Panel Evidence on Within-Occupation Change in Job Tasks and Individual Wages. (IAB-Discussion Paper 02/2024), Nürnberg, 33 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2402

Abstract

"Auf Grundlage neu verfügbarer Paneldaten präsentiert dieses Papier eine empirische Analyse der Lohneffekte sich verändernder Tätigkeiten am individuellen Arbeitsplatz. Unter Ausnutzung der Datenvariation innerhalb von Berufen und Individuen, über die Zeit, werden Lohnrenditen für die Ausübung von kognitiven, interpersonalen, physischen und Routine-Tätigkeiten geschätzt. Die Erkenntnisse der einflussreichen Studie von Autor und Handel (2013) über die Bedeutung des Tätigkeitswandels innerhalb von Berufen („intensive Margin“) werden erneut untersucht. Insbesondere kann individueller unbeobachteter Heterogenität und Selbstselektion in Berufe besser Rechnung getragen werden, als dies in der ursprünglichen Querschnittsstudie möglich war." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Adda, Jerome & Christian Dustmann (2023): Sources of Wage Growth. In: Journal of Political Economy, Jg. 131, H. 2, S. 456-503. DOI:10.1086/721657

Abstract

"This paper investigates the sources of wage growth over the life cycle, determined by sectoral and firm mobility, unobserved ability, the accumulation of cognitive-abstract or routine-manual skills, and whether workers enroll in vocational training at the start of their career. Our analysis uses longitudinal administrative data over three decades and shows that routine-manual skills drive early wage growth, while cognitive-abstract skills become more important later. Moreover, job amenities are an important determinant of mobility decisions. Vocational training has long-term effects on career outcomes through various channels and generates returns for both the individual and society." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Addison, John T., Pedro Portugal & Pedro Raposo (2023): Retrieving the Returns to Experience, Tenure, and Job Mobility from Work Histories. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 15977), Bonn, 37 S.

Abstract

"Using a unique Portuguese linked employer-employee dataset, this paper offers an extension of the standard Mincerian model of wage determination by allowing for different returns to experience and tenure over the sequence of jobs that constitute a career. We also consider the possibility of distinct wage hikes each time workers change jobs, where such uplifts reflect the returns to job search investments over the life cycle and shape the curvature of the earnings profile. We further investigate how worker, firm, and job match heterogeneity influence the returns to mobility, experience, and tenure. The returns to job mobility are found to reflect sorting into better job matches. Moreover, the estimated returns to experience are upwardly biased because more productive workers tend to be more experienced." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bauer, Anja, Kristin Keveloh, Mariano Mamertino & Enzo Weber (2023): Competing for Jobs: How COVID-19 Changes Search Behavior in the Labor Market. In: German Economic Review, Jg. 24, H. 4, S. 323-347., 2023-11-13. DOI:10.1515/ger-2021-0010

Abstract

"We provide insights on how job search changed in the Covid-19-crisis by analyzing data from the LinkedIn professional network for Germany. We find that competition among workers for jobs strongly increased – which is due to additional job seekers rather than higher search intensity. Furthermore, the LinkedIn data show that people from industries particularly affected by the crisis applied much more frequently and there had been a substantial shift in the target industries for applications. Finally, we find that at the onset of the Covid-19-crises applications were made significantly more often below and significantly less often above a person’s level of seniority." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Borjas, George J. (2023): Labor economics. New York: MacGraw-Hill, 494 S.

Abstract

"Labor Economics, ninth edition by George J. Borjas provides a modern introduction to labor economics, surveying the field with an emphasis on both theory and facts. Labor Economics is thoroughly integrated with the adaptive digital tools available in McGraw-Hill’s Connect, proven to increase student engagement and success in the course. All new Data Explorer questions using data simulation to help students grasp concepts Materials are fresh and up to date by introducing and discussing the latest research studies where conceptual or empirical contributions have increased our understanding of the labor market. The book has undergone Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion reviews to implement content around topics including generalizations and stereotypes, gender, abilities/disabilities, race/ethnicity, sexual orientation, diversity of names, and age." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Braunschweig, Luisa, Mara Buhmann, Duncan Roth & Jan Vespermann (2023): Nicht alle Jobwechsel führen zu Lohnsteigerungen. In: IAB-Forum H. 22.11.2023 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20231122.01

Abstract

"Menschen, die freiwillig ihren Job wechseln, verdienen in ihrer neuen Beschäftigung nicht in jedem Fall mehr als vorher. Im Fall unfreiwilliger Jobwechsel sind Lohneinbußen jedoch deutlich häufiger. Das gilt insbesondere dann, wenn dem Wechsel eine längere Phase der Arbeitslosigkeit vorausgeht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Braunschweig, Luisa, Tanja Buch, Mara Buhmann, Anna-Maria Kindt, Duncan Roth & Holger Seibert (2023): Berufswechsel zu Beginn der Covid-19-Pandemie: Nur geringe Auswirkungen auf Erwerbsverläufe. (IAB-Kurzbericht 6/2023), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2306

Abstract

"Beschäftigte, die zu Beginn der Covid-19-Pandemie ihren Beruf gewechselt haben, taten dies in einem krisenhaften Arbeitsmarktumfeld. Verglichen mit Berufswechseln im Vorjahr 2019 gingen den Untersuchungsergebnissen zufolge solche Berufswechsel im Frühjahr 2020 zunächst häufiger mit einer erhöhten Arbeitslosigkeit und Lohneinbußen einher. Diese Nachteile konnten jedoch meist bis zum Jahresende 2020 ausgeglichen werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Créchet, Jonathan, Etienne Lalé & Linas Tarasonis (2023): Life-Cycle Worker Flows and Cross-country Differences in Aggregate Employment. (Working paper / Department of Economics, University of Ottawa 2306E), Ottawa, 56 S.

Abstract

"We propose new data moments to measure the role of life-cycle worker flows between employment, unemployment and out of the labor force in shaping cross-country differences in aggregate employment. We then show that a suitably extended version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model can capture well these data moments. Two features of the model are crucial for this result: heterogeneity in match quality and endogenous search intensity. We examine the implications of this model for the sources of employment dispersion across Europe's largest countries, assessing the contribution of factors related to (i) the production technology, (ii) search, and (iii) policies. The sources of cross-country employment dispersion differ substantially across ages. Technology factors account for most of the employment variance of youths and prime-age workers, whereas search and policies are the main drivers of employment differences for older individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Elekes, Zoltán, Anna Baranowska-Rataj & Rikard Eriksson (2023): Regional diversification and labour market upgrading: local access to skill-related high-income jobs helps workers escaping low-wage employment. In: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Jg. 16, H. 3, S. 417-430. DOI:10.1093/cjres/rsad016

Abstract

"This article investigates how the evolution of local labor market structure enables or constrains workers as regards escaping low-wage jobs. Drawing on the network-based approach of evolutionary economic geography, we employ a detailed individual-level panel dataset to construct skill-relatedness networks for 72 functional labor market regions in Sweden. Subsequent fixed-effect panel regressions indicate that increasing density of skill-related high-income jobs within a region is conducive to low-wage workers moving to better-paid jobs, hence facilitating labor market upgrading through diversification. While metropolitan regions offer a premium for this relationship, it also holds for smaller regions, and across various worker characteristics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Forsythe, Eliza (2023): Occupational Job Ladders within and between Firms. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16682), Bonn, 42 S.

Abstract

"I present four facts about occupational mobility: (1) most movements occur within firms, (2) downward moves are frequent, (3) wage growth reflects the direction and distance of mobility, and (4) relative occupational wages before mobility predict the direction of mobility, except for non-displaced movers between firms. I show these facts are consistent with models of vertical sorting. I show that non-displaced movements between firms obscure the positive selection of upward occupational movers, likely reflecting moves up a firm-wage job ladder. Displaced workers show similar predisplacement selection to internal movers, with pre-displacement occupational wage rank predicting the direction of occupational mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fullard, Joshua (2023): Labour market expectations and occupational choice: evidence from teaching. (ISER working paper series / Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex 2023-01), Colchester, 39 S.

Abstract

"Using new data on teachers' intentions to leave the profession, subjective expectations about labour market outcomes and a modified discrete-choice experiment we find that i) teachers are systematically misinformed about population earnings, and misinformation is correlated with attrition intentions; ii) non-pecuniary factors are the most cost-effective method of reducing teacher attrition; and iii) attrition intentions are more affected by reductions in workplace amenities than symmetric improvements, suggesting preventing cuts is more important that rolling out more generous benefits. Linking our survey data to teachers' administrative records we provide the first evidence that teachers attrition intentions are strong predictors of actual behaviour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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García-Peñalosa, Cecilia, Fabien Petit & Tanguy van Ypersele (2023): Can workers still climb the social ladder as middling jobs become scarce? Evidence from two British cohorts. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102390

Abstract

"The increase in employment polarization observed in several high-income economies has coincided with a reduction in inter-generational mobility. This paper argues that the disappearance of middling jobs can drive changes in mobility, notably by removing a stepping stone towards high-paying occupations for those from less well-off family backgrounds. Using data from two British cohorts who entered the labour market at two points in time with very different degrees of employment polarization, we examine how parental income affects both entry occupations and occupational upgrading over careers. We find that transitions across occupations are key to mobility and that the impact of parental income has grown over time. At regional level, using a shift-share IV-strategy, we show that the impact of parental income has increased the most in regions experiencing the greatest increase in polarisation. This indicates that the disappearance of middling jobs played a role in the observed decline in mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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García-Peñalosa, Cecilia, Fabien Petit & Tanguy van Ypersele (2023): Can Workers Still Climb the Social Ladder as Middling Jobs Become Scarce? Evidence from Two British Cohorts. (CESifo working paper 10337),: CESifo 61, 11 S.

Abstract

"The increase in employment polarization observed in several high-income economies has coincided with a reduction in inter-generational mobility. This paper argues that the disappearance of middling jobs can drive changes in mobility, notably by removing a stepping stone towards high-paying occupations for those from less well-off family backgrounds. Using data from two British cohorts who entered the labour market at two points in time with very different degrees of employment polarization, we examine how parental income affects both entry occupations and occupational upgrading over careers. We find that transitions across occupations are key to mobility and that the impact of parental income has grown over time. At regional level, using a shift-share IV-strategy, we show that the impact of parental income has increased the most in regions experiencing the greatest increase in polarisation. This indicates that the disappearance of middling jobs played a role in the observed decline in mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gillmann, Niels, Andreas Maas & Antje Weyh (2023): Berufliche Mobilität vor und während der Corona-Pandemie. In: Ifo Dresden berichtet, Jg. 30, H. 1, S. 3-10.

Abstract

"Die Corona-Pandemie führte zu der größten Wirtschafskrise seit der globalen Finanzkrise 2008. Im Jahr 2020 wurde die These geäußert, dass die Pandemie am Arbeitsmarkt zu einem „Reallokationsschock“, also einer Umverteilung von Arbeitskräften aus Jobs mit niedriger Produktivität in solche mit hoher Produktivität, führen würde. Dieser Beitrag betrachtet die berufliche Mobilität in Deutschland und Sachsen in den Coronajahren 2020 und 2021. Wir zeigen, dass es zwar im Jahr 2020 Verwerfungen gab, sich der Arbeitsmarkt im Laufe des Jahres 2021 aber schon wieder nahezu normalisiert hat. Statt einer Reallokation bewirkt die Corona-Pandemie eher eine Verstärkung von bereits existierenden Arbeitsmarkttrends. Von einem „Reallokationsschock“ ist daher zumindest für Deutschland und Sachsen nicht auszugehen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Henning, Martin & Orsa Kekezi (2023): Upward job mobility in local economies. In: Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Jg. 16, H. 3, S. 431-444. DOI:10.1093/cjres/rsad022

Abstract

"This article studies upward job mobility in different types of local economies. Relying on Swedish register data, we disentangle the impacts stemming from local labour market size, the presence of related industries and occupations and the size of own-industry and own-occupation concentrations. Results show that the local economic structure is important in shaping upward mobility outcomes. However, we observe different impacts from local industry-versus-occupation agglomerations and depending on whether people move from lower-paid or higher-paid jobs. The results have important implications for understanding the drivers of upward job mobility in times of increasing labour market polarization and regional divergence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hervé, Justine (2023): Specialists or generalists? Cross-industry mobility and wages. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102391

Abstract

"This paper quantifies the association between industrial specialization at the occupation level and job mobility and earnings for low and middle-wage American workers. I propose the concept of industry specificity to capture the degree of industrial specialization of a worker's occupation. I measure industry specificity using an index of industrial concentration of employment (CEI) defined at the occupation-state-year level. Linking this index to individual-level panel data on wages and job transitions, I show that CEI is negatively associated with workers' wages: moving from the first quartile to the third quartile of industry specificity decreases wages by 13 percent. I next examine the mechanisms that explain these findings. I first find that CEI is negatively associated with cross-industry and cross-occupation mobility, that is, workers employed in industry-specific occupations change industry and occupation less frequently than workers in less specific occupations. In addition, I show that occupation-level factors such as skill uniqueness and automatability increase industry specificity; but they cannot entirely explain the negative effect of CEI on wages. Finally, in line with the main results, I provide suggestive evidence that workers in industry-specific occupations are more vulnerable to industry-wide wage shocks compared to their generalist counterparts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Heusler, Anna, Julia Lang & Gesine Stephan (2023): Wer nimmt die Berufsberatung im Erwerbsleben (BBiE) in Anspruch? Eine Prozessdatenanalyse. (IAB-Forschungsbericht 21/2023), Nürnberg, 33 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FB.2321

Abstract

"Berufliche Weiterbildung und Neuorientierung gewinnen im Zuge der Digitalisierung und des demografischen Wandels weiter an Bedeutung. Um Menschen bei der beruflichen Orientierung zu unterstützen, hat die Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA) in den letzten Jahren verschiedene Berufsberatungsangebote (weiter-)entwickelt. Die Berufsberatung im Erwerbsleben (BBiE) richtet sich dabei an Menschen, die im Erwerbsleben stehen. Ein zentrales Ziel ist es, diesen dabei zu helfen, die eigene berufliche Perspektive besser einzuschätzen. Zielgruppen sind vorrangig Erwerbstätige, insbesondere solche mit niedriger Qualifikation, die vor einer beruflichen Neu- bzw. Umorientierung stehen sowie Personen vor einem beruflichen Wiedereinstieg. Daneben richtet sich das Angebot an Arbeitslose im Rechtskreis der Arbeitslosenversicherung, die berufliche Vorerfahrungen und einen erhöhten beruflichen Beratungs- und Orientierungsbedarf haben. Dieser Forschungsbericht nutzt erstmalig neu erschlossene Forschungsdaten zu den beratenen Personen und verknüpft diese mit den Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien (IEB) des IAB sowie dem Betriebs-Historik-Panel (BHP). Die IEB enthalten unter anderem Informationen zu Zeiten sozialversicherungspflichtiger Beschäftigung, der registrierten Arbeitssuche, des Bezugs von Arbeitslosengeld und Arbeitslosengeld II sowie zur Teilnahme an arbeitsmarktpolitischen Maßnahmen. Aus dem BHP lassen sich Informationen zum Beschäftigungsbetrieb ergänzen. Da sich das Angebot im Untersuchungszeitraum an verschiedene Zielgruppen richtete, differenziert der Bericht zwischen Personen, die zum Zeitpunkt der Erstberatung a) sozialversicherungspflichtig beschäftigt, b) arbeitslos im Rechtskreis der Arbeitslosenversicherung (SGB III) oder c) in einem sonstigen Status waren – unter die letzte Kategorie fallen auch potenzielle Wiedereinsteiger*innen in den Arbeitsmarkt. Für die Beschäftigten wird eine Referenzgruppe aus Personen gebildet, die zu einem Stichtag beschäftigt waren. Eine Referenzgruppe für die Arbeitslosen setzt sich aus Zugängen in Arbeitslosigkeit zusammen. Für die sonstigen Personen lässt sich keine Referenzgruppe bilden, da für sie zum ersten Beratungstermin größtenteils keine Informationen in den administrativen Daten der BA vorliegen. Das Analysesample enthält 45.000 Beschäftigte, knapp 9.000 Arbeitslose sowie rund 17.500 sonstige Personen, die im Jahr 2021 mindestens einen ersten Beratungstermin wahrgenommen haben und für die einige zusätzliche Bedingungen erfüllt waren. Verglichen mit den Referenzgruppen ergeben sich für das Analysesample annäherungsweise Beratungsquoten von 0,16 Prozent für Beschäftigte und 0,64 Prozent für Arbeitslose im Rechtskreis SGB III. Der Bericht untersucht dann, welche Merkmale die drei Gruppen beratener Personen aufweisen, für die ersten beiden Gruppen auch im Vergleich zu den Referenzgruppen. Neben individuellen Merkmalen der Personen lassen sich auch Merkmale des letzten oder aktuellen Arbeitgebers auswerten. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich insbesondere ein starker Alterseffekt: Die BBiE richtete sich in allen drei Gruppen eher an Jüngere – in der Gruppe der Beratenen liegt der Anteil der Personen bis zu 35 Jahren über dem in der Referenzgruppe, der Anteil derer ab 46 Jahren deutlich darunter. Ein zweiter starker Effekt zeigt sich beim Geschlecht: Je nach Gruppe liegt der Frauenanteil bei den Beratenen zwischen gut der Hälfte und zwei Dritteln und über dem Frauenanteil in den Referenzgruppen. Beratene Beschäftigte hatten im aktuellen Job ein (gemessen am Median) deutlich geringeres Bruttotagesentgelt als Personen in der Referenzgruppe und arbeiteten häufiger in Teilzeit. Darüber hinaus findet sich eine Vielzahl kleinerer Unterschiede zwischen den Beschäftigten und Arbeitslosen sowie den jeweiligen Referenzgruppen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Holmberg, Johan (2023): Earnings, labor market dynamics, and inequality in Sweden. In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics online erschienen am 18.12.2023. DOI:10.1111/sjoe.12553

Abstract

"In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of earnings and labor market dynamics, where employment and job change are endogenous. The model is estimated by applying the method of indirect inference on Swedish register data and then used to carry out some policy experiments. There are three key conclusions from these experiments. First, employment shocks early in life can to a larger extent be mitigated before retirement compared to employment shocks occurring later. Second, we find that idiosyncratic productivity shocks, unobserved heterogeneity, and education contribute substantially to life cycle earnings inequality. Finally, we find that transitory shocks to employment risk have negative effects on earnings and employment in the short run but may increase labor market fluidity in the medium run." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Jarosch, Gregor (2023): Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss. In: Econometrica, Jg. 91, H. 3, S. 903-942. DOI:10.3982/ECTA14008

Abstract

"Job loss comes with large present value earnings losses which elude workhorse models of unemployment and labor market policy. I propose a parsimonious model of a frictional labor market in which jobs differ in terms of unemployment risk and workers search off- and on-the-job. This gives rise to a job ladder with slippery bottom rungs where unemployment spells beget unemployment spells. I allow for human capital to respond to time spent out of work and estimate the framework on German Social Security data. The model captures the joint response of wages, employment, and unemployment risk to job loss which I measure empirically. The key driver of the “unemployment scar” is the loss in job security and its interaction with the evolution of human capital and, in particular, the search for better employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Jephcote, Calvin, Allan M. Williams, Gang Li & Hania Janta (2023): Return migration and employment mobility: a pan-European analysis. In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, Jg. 49, H. 17, S. 4435-4459. DOI:10.1080/1369183X.2022.2142104

Abstract

"Although there has been increasing focus on the employment mobility associated with migration and return, a number of important research gaps can be identified. First, there has been greater focus on occupational mobility than on changes in economic activity, although it is their interaction which determines welfare outcomes. Moreover, most studies of economic activity have focused on either self-employment, or the simple dichotomy between being employed versus unemployed, neglecting the shifts between full-time, part-time, and casual employment. Secondly, research on the determinants of these different types of employment mobility has been relatively narrowly focused on individual economic factors. Most studies have been fragmented, especially lacking a comparative element. To address these gaps, descriptive statistics and Bayesian multilevel models are applied to a pan-European panel survey of 3851 young returned migrants. The findings disclose that positive shifts in employment mobility are more evident in economic activity than in occupations, and for those with a lower occupational status prior to migration. Although a range of significant determinants of employment mobility are identified, the findings also demonstrate that education is a major driver of occupational mobility, while marital and family status are important influences on economic activity shifts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kalinowski, Michael, Florian Bernardt & Tobias Maier (2023): Ein konsistentes Datenmodel für die Arbeitsmarktprojektion. In: G. Zika, M. Hummel, T. Maier & M. I. Wolter (Hrsg.) (2023): Das QuBe-Projekt: Modelle, Module, Methoden, S. 33-54.

Abstract

"Das Alleinstellungsmerkmal der Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen ist neben der Berücksichtigung der beruflichen Mobilität zwischen erlerntem und ausgeübtem Beruf die Überführung unterschiedlicher Datenquellen in einen gemeinsamen, harmonisierten Datensatz. Dieser Beitrag stellt zunächst die verwendeten Klassifikationen und Datenquellen mit ihren Vor- und Nachteilen vor und beschreibt anschließend das Vorgehen bei der Harmonisierung der unterschiedlichen offiziellen Statistiken, sowohl auf Bundes- als auch auf regionaler Ebene." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kopycka, Katarzyna (2023): Escaping uncertainty through downward mobility? Occupational mobility upon transition to permanent employment in Germany and in Poland. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 83. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2023.100768

Abstract

"Extending existing research on transitions from temporary to permanent employment this article investigates the social mobility dimension of these transitions. Specifically, it asks whether certain individuals experience downward occupational mobility while moving from temporary to permanent employment in the two countries under study, Germany and Poland. The empirical analysis of the employment histories of young individuals until age 35 involves event history modelling using Cox proportional hazards methodology and is conducted on data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (G-SOEP) and the Polish Panel Survey (POLPAN) for the period 2003–2017/2018. In the study, transitions to permanent employment with and without downward occupational mobility are defined as competing events and modeled separately. The analysis reveals that ten per cent and as much as seventeen per cent of moves to permanent employment in Germany and Poland, respectively, are accompanied by a loss in occupational status. A higher prevalence of downward mobility in Poland may result from a weaker welfare state there which is less decommodifying. Furthermore, a low level of individual economic vulnerability decreases the transition rate to permanent employment involving a drop in occupational status. In Poland, the high socioeconomic position of the family of origin deters from changing to an unlimited contract with downward mobility. In Germany, married or partnered individuals who enjoy a high household income bear a lower risk of transitioning to permanent employment with status loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lappi, Emma (2023): Help from the past - coworker ties and entry wages after self-employment. In: Small business economics, Jg. 60, H. 3, S. 1171-1196. DOI:10.1007/s11187-022-00652-3

Abstract

"This paper empirically estimates how referrals mitigate the risk associated with hiring formerly self-employed individuals. We do this by comparing the networks and entry wages for two groups of new hires: those who exit self-employment to become wage-employed and those who change employers as wage employees, i.e., job changers. Referrals are defined as coworker ties through which the new hire and an incumbent worker share a common employment history before their current employment. We use longitudinal Swedish register-based data to evaluate the entry wages of the two groups of new hires for the years between 2010 and 2013. The results show that having coworker ties is associated with 2.9% higher entry wages and that this network premium is uniform across the formerly self-employed and job changers. However, the new hires from self-employment have consistently lower entry wages than the job changers, even if the exiting self-employed have coworker ties." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Lee, Annie S., William M. Rodgers & Sébastien Breau (2023): Challenging transitions? Assessing the occupational mobility patterns of US immigrants by gender. In: International Migration, Jg. 61, H. 6, S. 155-174. DOI:10.1111/imig.13154

Abstract

"This article uses the New Immigrant Survey to assess the occupational mobility of US immigrants. Estimates from OLS and Heckman selection models show the occupational mobility of immigrants follows a U-shaped pattern: immigrants arriving in the United States see their occupational status decline before it gradually improves. However, even 9 years after coming to the United States, the occupational status of immigrants remains lower than prior to their arrival in the country. Our findings also suggest that immigrant women with higher occupational status tend to move more often to the United States than immigrant men. Conversely, immigrant women are more likely than men to experience career interruptions after migration. Finally, occupational employment growth rates (defined as the growth rate in the number of jobs for an occupation) have a positive impact on both men and women immigrants' ability to recover their occupational status, though the impact appears to be greater for immigrant women." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Litsardopoulos, Nicholas, George Saridakis & Andrew E. Clark (2023): Variants of Gender Bias and Sexual-Orientation Discrimination in Career Development. In: The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, Jg. 23, H. 4, S. 1175-1185. DOI:10.1515/bejeap-2023-0026

Abstract

"We use a nationally-representative dataset that includes a large sample of sexual-orientation minorities to investigate gender bias and sexual-orientation discrimination in career progression. Our results are consistent with persistent gender bias findings and non-heterosexual identity-based employment discrimination. Our findings are consistent with previous work noting that protective legislation for gay and lesbian sexual identities have increased the cost of discrimination and contribute to the improved socioeconomic status of a substantial number of people in these minority groups. However, these gains have not been shared with other minority groups in the LGB+ community, which still have some of the lowest probabilities of holding managerial jobs, and higher probabilities of appearing in lower socioeconomic classes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Longhi, Simonetta, Alita Nandi, Mark Bryan, Sara Connolly & Cigdem Gedikli (2023): Do all job changes increase wellbeing? In: Industrial Relations online erschienen am 14.12.2023. DOI:10.1111/irel.12354

Abstract

"We provide a comprehensive framework, based on person–Environment fit, for evaluating the relationship between types of job change and wellbeing, and estimate it using fixed‐effects methods applied to UK longitudinal data. Changing job is associated with large swings in job satisfaction, but not all job changes are equal. Changes in workplace are associated with increased job satisfaction only when they are associated with a change in job role. The largest associations are for changing employers. These associations extend beyond job satisfaction to mental health and, to a lesser extent, life satisfaction. Changes in broader wellbeing are especially pronounced for women." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Maier, Tobias (2023): Berufliche Mobilität. In: G. Zika, M. Hummel, T. Maier & M. I. Wolter (Hrsg.) (2023): Das QuBe-Projekt: Modelle, Module, Methoden, S. 94-106.

Abstract

"Das Alleinstellungsmerkmal der Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen ist die Bilanzierung des Arbeitsangebots mit dem -bedarf auf Berufsebene. Zu diesem Zweck muss das Arbeitsangebot nach erlerntem Beruf aus dem Bildungssystem über berufliche Mobilitätsmatrizen in ein potenzielles Arbeitsangebot für einen bestimmten Beruf umgerechnet werden. Die Wechselwahrscheinlichkeiten zwischen erlerntem und ausgeübtem Beruf werden über den Mikrozensus gewonnen und in die Zukunft fortgeschrieben. Für die Fortschreibung spielt die veränderte soziodemografische Zusammensetzung der Erwerbspersonen, aber auch die Lohnentwicklung in den Berufen eine Rolle." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Maier, Tobias, Michael Kalinowski, Anke Mönnig & Gerd Zika (2023): Indikatoren für berufliche Arbeitsmärkte auf Basis der QuBe-Modellwelt. In: G. Zika, M. Hummel, T. Maier & M. I. Wolter (Hrsg.) (2023): Das QuBe-Projekt: Modelle, Module, Methoden, S. 210-222.

Abstract

"Um berufliche Passungsprobleme frühzeitig erkennen, aber auch in ihrem Zustandekommen verstehen zu können, bedarf es der Betrachtung einer Reihe von Indikatoren. Dieser Beitrag stellt die Indikatoren vor, welche vor allem im Hinblick auf eine Arbeitsmarktprognose in der mittleren Frist Anwendung finden, aber auch für einen längeren Betrachtungszeitraum genutzt werden können. Dabei handelt es sich um Zukunftsindikatoren, die zur Einordnung von Fokusberufen mit Engpässen oder Überhängen führen, Bestimmungsindikatoren, welche das Zustandekommen der Arbeitsmarktsituation erklären, und Ergänzungsindikatoren, welche zur umfassenden Einschätzung der Arbeitsmarktsituation beitragen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Melillo, Francesca (2023): Going From Entrepreneur Back to Employee: Employer Type, Task Variety, and Job Satisfaction. (Les GREDEG working papers 2023-21), Vabonne, 37 S.

Abstract

"While the literature documents a wage loss for entrepreneurs that return to paid employment, we examine how these entrepreneurs are re-integrated into the labor market. We consider which type of employers hire entrepreneurs and their satisfaction with the new corporate job. Using matched employer-employee data from Belgium combined with an ad-hoc survey, we find that entrepreneurs are hired by smaller employers that offer fewer employee benefits and pay less, contributing to explaining the wage loss. We also find that entrepreneurs are more satisfied than observationally equivalent employees when they are assigned to jobs that involve higher task variety. This effect is more pronounced for entrepreneurs who sort into better employers. Our findings highlight the importance for managers to assign entrepreneurs to the "right" job tasks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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O'Brien, Wendy, Clare Hanlon & Vasso Apostolopoulos (2023): Women as leaders in male-dominated sectors: A bifocal analysis of gendered organizational practices. In: Gender, work & organization, Jg. 30, H. 6, S. 1867-1884. DOI:10.1111/gwao.13019

Abstract

"Women in male‐dominated sectors face significant challenges to progress their leadership aspirations. While organizations have activated policies and practices that ostensibly assist women to progress, they still face entrenched gendered practices and cultures that create ongoing obstacles. In this paper, we examine the gendered social practices from insights of 15 women leaders in Australia as they attempt to advance their careers. In particular, on formal policies, informal practices, narratives and social interactions, and informal patterns of unconscious bias and merit, they negotiate in three male‐dominated sectors: Trades, Sport, and Surgery. The findings indicate a disconnect between policies and their application. Women were conflicted about the importance of quotas, and often felt unable to access flexible work arrangements upon returning to work after parental leave. Career pathways were often unclear, and women felt a lack of support from their organization, particularly when they attempted to navigate dominant masculine cultures. Drawing on these findings, we argue that executive leaders are central to changing the systemic sexism and discrimination in organizations that persist in male‐dominated sectors. To create organizational changes necessary for women to step into leadership roles, we propose four target areas: create accessible and visible career pathways, provide networking support, activate mentoring opportunities, and address unconscious bias." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Ortmann, Tobias, Timm Bönke, Dominik Hügle & Luisa Hammer (2023): Bessere Perspektiven bei Jobwechseln - Zur Ähnlichkeit beruflicher Übergänge. Gütersloh, 23 S. DOI:10.11586/2023030

Abstract

"Die vorliegende Studie analysiert die Distanz beruflicher Wechsel sowie hieraus resultierende Einkommens- und Beschäftigungseffekte auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Dabei zeigt sich: Ein Jobwechsel macht sich vor allem dann bezahlt, wenn Arbeitnehmer:innen an vorhandene Kompetenzen anknüpfen, also in verwandte Tätigkeiten wechseln. Das Lohnplus fällt dann um durchschnittlich 3.500 Euro brutto pro Jahr höher aus als bei einem Wechsel in nicht verwandte Berufe. Gleichzeitig steigt die jährliche Arbeitszeit im Vergleich um mehr als sechs Tage. Allerdings profitieren in erster Linie Fachkräfte und Spezialisten von einem Jobwechsel. Helfer:innen sind dagegen benachteiligt: Sie wechseln den Job doppelt so häufig wie Fachkräfte und starten besonders oft in für sie fremden Berufen – zumeist ohne Aufstiegschancen. Auch Frauen sind bei Berufswechseln oft schlechter gestellt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Alireza Sepahsalari (2023): Labor Mobility and Earnings in the UK, 1992–2017. In: The Economic Journal, Jg. 133, H. 656, S. 3071-3098. DOI:10.1093/ej/uead052

Abstract

"We combine information from the British Household Panel Study and the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (also known as Understanding Society) to construct consistent time series of aggregate worker stocks, worker flows and earnings in the United Kingdom over the period 1992–2017. We propose a method to harmonize data between the British Household Panel Study and United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study, which we validate by checking the consistency of some of our headline time series with equivalent series produced from other sources, notably by the Office for National Statistics. In addition to drawing a detailed aggregate picture of the United Kingdom labor market over the past two and a half decades, we use our constructed data set to compare the impact of industry, occupation and employer tenure on wages in the United Kingdom. We find that returns to occupation tenure are substantial. All else equal, five years of occupation tenure are associated with a 3.3% increase in wages. We also find that industry tenure plays a non-negligible part in driving wage growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schulz, Wiebke, Heike Solga & Reinhard Pollak (2023): Vocational education, tertiary education, and skill use across career stages. In: European Sociological Review, Jg. 39, H. 5, S. 741-758. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcac074

Abstract

"Vocational education enhances smooth transitions into the labour market. However, this initial advantage might vanish over the career and eventually turn into a disadvantage because the skills of vocationally trained workers become outdated faster. So far, research has examined this potential vocational trade-off by assessing labour market outcomes such as employment and income. This study uses a different approach, it directly examines how different types of skills used at work change over the career of vocationally trained workers compared to tertiary-educated workers, and how career events shape skill-use changes. With data from the German National Education Study (NEPS), we examine five skills use dimensions based on job-tasks measures: analytical, creative, managerial, interactive, and manual skills. We find that skill-use differentials between vocational and tertiary-educated workers are only small to modest. The clearest differences relate to analytical and manual skills. Looking across career stages, the observed skill-use differentials remain rather stable across career stages—thus, the vocational skill trade-off thesis is only partially supported. Occupational mobility and unemployment contribute to observable changes, whereas job-related further training does not. Our results challenge skill-based explanations of a vocational trade-off." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Torosyan, Karine, Sicheng Wang, Elizabeth A. Mack, Jenna A. Van Fossen & Nathan Baker (2023): Assessing the impact of technological change on similar occupations: Implications for employment alternatives. In: PLoS ONE, Jg. 18. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0291428

Abstract

"Background: The fast-changing labor market highlights the need for an in-depth understanding of occupational mobility impacted by technological change. However, we lack a multidimensional classification scheme that considers similarities of occupations comprehensively, which prevents us from predicting employment trends and mobility across occupations. This study fills the gap by examining employment trends based on similarities between occupations. Method: We first demonstrated a new method that clusters 756 occupation titles based on knowledge, skills, abilities, education, experience, training, activities, values, and interests. We used the Principal Component Analysis to categorize occupations in the Standard Occupational Classification, which is grouped into a four-level hierarchy. Then, we paired the occupation clusters with the occupational employment projections provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We analyzed how employment would change and what factors affect the employment changes within occupation groups. Particularly, we specified factors related to technological changes. Results: The results reveal that technological change accounts for significant job losses in some clusters. This poses occupational mobility challenges for workers in these jobs at present. Job losses for nearly 60% of current employment will occur in low-skill, low-wage occupational groups. Meanwhile, many mid-skilled and highly skilled jobs are projected to grow in the next ten years. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate the utility of our occupational classification scheme. Furthermore, it suggests a critical need for skills upgrading and workforce development for workers in declining jobs. Special attention should be paid to vulnerable workers, such as older individuals and minorities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Weber, Enzo & Murat Erer (2023): Das IAB-LinkedIn-Branchenwechsel-Radar: "Great Resignation" ist kein Trend. In: IAB-Forum H. 14.08.2023 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20230814.01

Abstract

"Die "Great Resignation"-Debatte legt nahe, dass Beschäftigte in der Corona-Krise vermehrt die Branche, in der sie bis dato tätig waren, gewechselt hätten. Das trifft für Deutschland nicht zu, wie das neue IAB-LinkedIn-Branchenwechsel-Radar zeigt. Mit ihm lässt sich das aktuelle Wechselgeschehen am Arbeitsmarkt künftig zeitnah abbilden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Wen, Le, Sholeh A. Maani & Zhi Dong (2023): Educational job mismatch, job satisfaction, on-the-job training, and employee quit behaviour: a dynamic analytical approach. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 55, H. 56, S. 6605-6626. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2022.2161990

Abstract

"This paper extends the literature on the consequences of over-education, in particular quit outcomes. It is the first study that explicitly tests the impact of job satisfaction and on-the-job training for workers in educational mismatched jobs and on quit behaviour using a longitudinal data set. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity, the dynamic analytical framework examines labour market outcomes for job-mismatched workers. We find that over-education alone, or accompanied by skill under-utilization in combination with lower job satisfaction, increases the incidences of job quitting. Opportunities for training facilitate the retention of initially job-mismatched workers. These results have implications for interpreting mismatch data, retention, and resource allocation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Yi, Moises, Steffen Müller & Jens Stegmaier (2023): Industry Mix, Local Labor Markets, and the Incidence of Trade Shocks. In: Journal of labor economics online erschienen am 09.02.2023, S. 1-64. DOI:10.1086/724569

Abstract

"We analyze how skill transferability and the local industry mix affect the adjustment costs of workers hit by a trade shock. Using German administrative data and novel measures of economic distance we construct an index of labor market absorptiveness that captures the degree to which workers from a particular industry are able to reallocate into other jobs. Among manufacturing workers, we find that the earnings loss associated with increased import exposure is much higher for those who live in the least absorptive regions. We conclude that the local industry composition plays an important role in the adjustment processes of workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Zika, Gerd, Markus Hummel, Tobias Maier & Marc Ingo Wolter (Hrsg.) (2023): Das QuBe-Projekt: Modelle, Module, Methoden. (IAB-Bibliothek 374), Bielefeld: wbv, 226 S. DOI:10.3278/9783763973712

Abstract

"Seit 2007 wird im Projekt QuBe über die zukünftige Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarkts und deren Folgen geforscht. Der Reader stellt die Annahmen, Daten und die Basis der Projektionen vor, die im Projekt QuBe genutzt werden. Projektionen über die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarkts ergeben sich aus der Beobachtung von Vergangenen und dem, was gegenwärtig als richtungsweisend gilt. Die theoretischen und empirischen Grundlagen sind wichtig, um Projektionen als reine Rechenmodelle richtig zu verstehen und angemessen zu interpretieren. Seit der Erstveröffentlichung werden die QuBe-Projektionen in einem regelmäßigen zweijährigen Rhythmus erneuert. Federführend sind das Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung (BIBB) und das Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) unter Mitwirkung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS)." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Zika, Gerd, Markus Hummel, Tobias Maier & Marc Ingo Wolter (2023): Das QuBe-Projekt – was es will und was es kann. In: G. Zika, M. Hummel, T. Maier & M. I. Wolter (Hrsg.) (2023): Das QuBe-Projekt: Modelle, Module, Methoden, S. 16-32.

Abstract

"Unter Federführung des Bundesinstituts für Berufsbildung (BIBB) und des Instituts für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB) sowie unter Mitwirkung der Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS) werden im Rahmen des QuBe-Projekts in einem regelmäßigen zweijährigen Rhythmus langfristige „Qualifikations- und Berufsprojektionen“ erstellt. Hinzu kommt im Rahmen von Szenarien-Analysen eine Vielzahl von Publikationen zu unterschiedlichsten Fragestellungen, wie beispielsweise den Folgen der Digitalisierung, eines veränderten Mobilitätsverhaltens, der Neuausrichtung der Wohnungsbau- und Klimapolitik sowie zuletzt den Folgen des Ukraine-Kriegs für Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt. Die stetige Weiterentwicklung des Modellinstrumentariums und seiner Module ist mittlerweile an einem Punkt angekommen, wo es notwendig wird, die jeweiligen Modellierungen in komprimierter Form darzulegen. Dem trägt dieser Sammelband nun Rechnung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Alves, Felipe (2022): Job Ladder and Business Cycles. (Staff working paper / Bank of Canada 2022,14), Ottawa, 44 S.

Abstract

"I build a Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian model with rich labor market dynamics. Workers search both off- and on-the-job, giving rise to a job ladder, where employed workers slowly move toward more productive and better paying jobs through job-to-job transitions, while negative shocks occasionally throw them back into unemployment. The state of the economy includes the distribution of workers over wealth, labor earnings and match productivities. In the wake of an adverse financial shock calibrated to mimic the US Great Recession unemployment dynamics, firms reduce hiring, causing the job ladder to all but “stop working.” This leaves wages stagnant for several years, triggering a sharp contraction and slow recovery in consumption and output. On the supply side, the slow pace in worker turnover leaves workers stuck at the bottom of the ladder, effectively cutting labor productivity growth in the aggregate. The interaction between weak demand and low productivity leads to inflation dynamics that resemble the missing disinflation of that period." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Andresen, Maike, Silke Anger, Akram Al Ariss, Cordula Barzantny, Herbert Brücker, Michael Dickmann, Liisa Mäkelä, Sara Louise Muhr, Thomas Saalfeld, Vesa Suutari & Mette Zølner (Hrsg.) (2022): Wanderlust to wonderland? Exploring key issues in expatriate careers: Individual, organizational, and societal insights. (Personalmanagement und Arbeits- und Organisationspsychologie 2), Bamberg: University of Bamberg Press, 292 S. DOI:10.20378/irb-55344

Abstract

"Expatriation has been a topic of much research recently. The important role expatriates play in the internationalisation of an organisation and the resultant effects of such a work experience on the expatriates themselves, have fuelled the interest in this domain. This edited volume serves to provide fresh and timely insights into four areas, covering the individual, over the organisational, to the macro-level. First, the career paths of the expatriates, which not only garners them the career capital they may be able to utilise later in their career but also, the impacts of such an experience on their longer-term career success are in focus. The second block concerns the expatriation phase itself. A critical look is taken into the expatriates’ identity and how it changes over time. Moreover, it discusses factors influencing the expatriates’ well-being, embeddedness, and sociocultural integration during their time abroad. Third, some key global mobility management challenges that organisations face, when managing expatriation, are introduced — such as flexible language management and how to become an international employer. Finally, insights are provided into the role of the host country policies – more specifically hostile environment and migration policies – on expatriate attitudes and behaviour, which has received less attention in previous research. All four areas are finally brought together to present a rich overview of future research questions that shall stimulate researchers and practitioners in their further deliberations. The chapters are based on selected results from the respective research subprojects of the Early Stage Researchers of the Horizon 2020 Global Mobility of Employees (GLOMO) project. This project was funded under the European Union’s Research and Innovation Programme H2020 in the framework of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No 765355." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © University of Bamberg Press) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Boris Ivanov & Laura Pohlan (2022): Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss. (IAB-Discussion Paper 17/2022), Nürnberg, 61 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.DP.2217

Abstract

"In vielen Ländern sind routine-intensive Berufe rückläufig, aber wie wirkt sich dies auf die individuelle Karriere aus, wenn der Rückgang dieser Berufe im lokalen Arbeitsmarkt besonders stark ausfällt? Diese Studie zeigt basierend auf administrativen Daten aus Deutschland und einem mit Matching kombinierten Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz, dass die individuellen Kosten eines Arbeitsplatzverlustes stark von der Tätigkeitsorientierung des regionalen Strukturwandels abhängen. Personen aus manuellen routine-intensiven Berufen haben nach einer Entlassung wesentlich höhere und lang anhaltende Beschäftigungs- und Lohnverluste in Regionen, in denen der Rückgang dieser Berufe am stärksten ausgeprägt ist. Regionale und berufliche Mobilität dienen teilweise als Anpassungsmechanismen, sie sind jedoch mit hohen Kosten verbunden, da diese Wechsel auch Verluste bei unternehmensspezifischen Lohnaufschlägen mit sich bringen. Beschäftigte, die nicht entlassen werden, bleiben hingegen weitgehend vom Strukturwandel verschont." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Arntz, Melanie, Boris Ivanov & Laura Pohlan (2022): Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss. (ZEW discussion paper 22-019), Mannheim, 55 S.

Abstract

"In vielen Ländern sind routine-intensive Berufe rückläufig, aber wie wirkt sich dies auf die individuelle Karriere aus, wenn der Rückgang dieser Berufe im lokalen Arbeitsmarkt besonders stark ausfällt? Diese Studie zeigt basierend auf administrativen Daten aus Deutschland und einem mit Matching kombinierten Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz, dass die individuellen Kosten eines Arbeitsplatzverlustes stark von der Tätigkeitsorientierung des regionalen Strukturwandels abhängen. Personen aus manuellen routine-intensiven Berufen haben nach einer Entlassung wesentlich höhere und lang anhaltende Beschäftigungs- und Lohnverluste in Regionen, in denen der Rückgang dieser Berufe am stärksten ausgeprägt ist. Regionale und berufliche Mobilität dienen teilweise als Anpassungsmechanismen, sie sind jedoch mit hohen Kosten verbunden, da diese Wechsel auch Verluste bei unternehmensspezifischen Lohnaufschlägen mit sich bringen. Beschäftigte, die nicht entlassen werden, bleiben hingegen weitgehend vom Strukturwandel verschont." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Barbulescu, Roxana, Claudia Jonczyk, Charles Galunic & Ben Bensaou (2022): Management of fortuity: Workplace chance events and the career projections of up-or-out professionals. In: Journal of vocational behavior, Jg. 139. DOI:10.1016/j.jvb.2022.103791

Abstract

"How much control do people have over their career? We explore this question in the context of professional service firms, long thought of as providing predictable, agentic careers in the up-or-out model. Specifically, we seek to understand how chance events in immediate work circumstances are experienced in this context, and the responses they elicit in terms of career construction. Drawing on in-depth interviews with 68 pre-partnership professionals from three large professional firms using the up-or-out promotion system, we find that chance developments in proximate work conditions, especially with respect to key relationships and project allocation, shape the possibilities that professionals see for their careers going forward and the actions they take in response. Even in this seemingly predictable career, being continuously attuned to fortuitous turns of events informs how people enact career agency. It also prompts a heightened awareness of the fragile nature of the up-or-out career path, triggering a gradual reconsideration of career possibilities that includes career confirmation, ambivalence, pivot, and fading. Our study contributes to better understanding the interdependence between context and agency in contemporary careers, highlighting the widespread and consequential role of proximate chance events in people's career construction process." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Berger, Johannes & Ludwig Strohner (2022): Can labour mobility reduce imbalances in the euro area? (Research paper / EcoAustria - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 20), Wien, 25 S.

Abstract

"Labour market developments in the Euro area diverged significantly since 2008. Economic literature frequently refers to labour mobility as pillar for the functioning of currency areas. Applying the CGE model PuMA, we quantitatively analyse to what extent labour mobility can contribute to reducing imbalances within the Euro area. Our results indicate that it can temporarily reduce unemployment and increase wages in periphery countries at the cost of somewhat higher unemployment in receiving countries. Overall, economic outcomes improve slightly. Although labour mobility has a positive effect on labour market imbalances, it cannot be seen as substitute for structural reforms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel (2022): Employer-to-employer Transitions in Europe. (Working paper / Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School 2022,04), Frederiksberg, 37 S.

Abstract

"I measure time series of the probabilities that an individual changes employer, separates from employment, and joins employment during the month, using cross-sectional data from the European Union Labor Force Survey covering 13 countries during the past two decades. Employer-to-employer mobility is large and accounts for a sizable fraction of worker mobility in all countries; its levels, both absolute and relative to nonemployment reallocation, vary considerably across countries. In most countries, the employer-to-employer probability exhibits large and procyclical variation. By contrast, there are no systematic cross-country patterns in the low-frequency evolution of employer-to-employer mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Causa, Orsetta, Michael Abendschein, Nhung Luu & Maria Chiara Cavalleri (2022): Getting on the job ladder: The policy drivers of hiring transitions. (OECD Economics Department working papers 1710), Paris, 88 S.

Abstract

"This paper delivers new evidence for European countries on the role of a wide range of policies for workers' mobility in terms of hiring transitions into jobs, with an emphasis on differences across socio-economic groups. Labour market transitions are relevant in the current context where the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is characterised by labour shortages and at the same time still low employment in a number of countries. The analysis focuses on the probability to transition from unemployment and selected forms of inactivity (e.g. fulfilling domestic tasks, studying) to jobs and from one job to another. Results of this work show the strong association between hiring flows and the business cycle with specific patterns during recoveries, recessions and expansions. The analysis further reveals that a broad range of policies influence hiring transitions, such as labour market policies, taxes and social support programmes but also product market regulations and regulations affecting certain professions. Country-specific priorities will vary depending on context, challenges and social preferences. Yet common policy objectives at the current recovery context are likely to improve the job prospects of the non-employed, especially youth, low-skilled and women, to help the recovery, foster reallocation and to address labour shortages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Deng, Lanfang, Hongyi Li & Wei Shi (2022): Willingness for different job mobility types and wage expectations. An empirical analysis based on the online resumes. In: Papers in Regional Science, Jg. 101, H. 1, S. 135-161. DOI:10.1111/pirs.12636

Abstract

"In this paper, we study different determinants of the intentions of multi-dimensional job mobility and potential consequences on the expected wage, allowing for multiple types of moves, including location, industry, and occupation, and different combinations of these three dimensions. Our results confirm that the same observable characteristics can lead to different or even completely opposite effects on job mobility intentions. To be specific, on-the-job seekers (compared to unemployed ones) and job seekers with management positions in their last jobs both have a higher willingness to change job locations, but they are less willing to change industries and occupations. Moreover, our results demonstrate that the relationship between job mobility and wage expectations highly depends on the combinations of different mobility dimensions. Specifically, potential geographic mobility positively impacts wage expectations, with an increase of the expected wage by 6.3%. However, changing industry, occupation, or both results in a lower expected wage by 3.7%, 1.6%, and 11%, respectively. The wage expectation of the “All change” group does not significantly differ from the cohort of non-movers (i.e., “No change”), implying that geographic moves could only partially offset the adverse effects of switching both occupation and industry." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Engbom, Niklas (2022): Labor Market Fluidity and Human Capital Accumulation. (NBER working paper 29698), Cambridge, Mass, 70 S. DOI:10.3386/w29698

Abstract

"Using panel data from 23 OECD countries, I document that wages grow more over the life-cycle in countries where job-to-job mobility is more common. A life-cycle theory of job shopping and accumulation of skills on the job highlights that a more fluid labor market allows workers to faster relocate to jobs where they can better use their skills, incentivizing accumulation of skills. Lower labor market fluidity reduces life-cycle wage growth by 20 percent and aggregate labor productivity by nine percent across the OECD relative to the US. I derive a set of testable predictions for training and confront them with comparable cross-country training data, finding support for the theory." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fritsch, Nina-Sophie, Bernd Liedl & Gerhard Paulinger (2022): Horizontal and vertical labour market movements in Austria: Do occupational transitions take women across gendered lines? In: Current Sociology, Jg. 70, H. 5, S. 720-741. DOI:10.1177/0011392120969767

Abstract

"The gendered division of occupations is a persistent characteristic of the Austrian labour market. Furthermore, we can observe more flexible employment biographies, where sequential employment episodes and occupational transitions become an important part. On this account, the article argues that both gender inequalities and labour market movements need to be examined simultaneously. The authors therefore analyse gender-(un)typed horizontal occupational transitions and their influence on the vertical positioning, based on the Austrian Micro Census (2008–2018). The results reveal that gender-typed occupational transitions are regaining relevance and that the gender effect is reversing in that women increasingly leave gender-untyped occupations. The findings also demonstrate that this gender-typed horizontal movement yields a significant decline in occupational status for women, which even increases when women become mothers. Based on their models the authors find no negative effects for fathers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Garthe, Nina & Hans Martin Hasselhorn (2022): Changes of profession, employer and work tasks in later working life: an empirical overview of staying and leaving. In: Ageing & Society, Jg. 42, H. 10, S. 2393-2413. DOI:10.1017/S0144686X21000088

Abstract

"Occupational change encompasses change of profession, employer and work tasks. This study gives an overview on occupational change in later working life and provides empirical evidence on voluntary, involuntary and desired occupational changes in the older workforce in Germany. The analyses were based on longitudinal data from 2,835 participants of the German lidA Cohort Study, a representative study of employees born in 1959 or 1965. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed in order to characterise the change groups in their previous job situation. The findings indicate that occupational change among older workers is frequent. In four years, 13.4 per cent changed employer, 10.5 per cent profession and 45.1 per cent work tasks. In addition, the desire for change often remains unfulfilled: the share of older workers who wanted to but did not change was 17.6 per cent for profession, 13.2 per cent for employer and 8.9 per cent for work tasks. The change groups investigated differ in terms of their socio-demographic background, health and job factors such as seniority and leadership quality. In times of ageing populations, the potential of occupational change among older workers requires more consideration in society, policy and research. Special attention should also be paid to the group of workers who would have liked to change but feel that they cannot leave." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hartmann, Michael (2022): Berufliche Mobilität von Beschäftigten. (Grundlagen: Methodenbericht / Bundesagentur für Arbeit Juni 2022), Nürnberg, 51 S.

Abstract

"Der Beruf ist eine zentrale Dimension bei der Beschreibung von Arbeitsmärkten. Beruflich differenzierte Statistiken zum Arbeitsmarkt liefern wichtige Informationen für die Berufswahl, die berufliche Weiterentwicklung bzw. Neuorientierung, die Ausrichtung von Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen und die Analyse von Arbeitskräfteengpässen. Die Statistik der BA hat in den letzten Jahren ihre statistische Berichterstattung über Berufe sukzessive ausgebaut und erweitert sie mit diesem Methodenbericht um Statistiken zur beruflichen Mobilität von Beschäftigten. Berufliche Mobilität wird in der Beschäftigungsstatistik beim Wechsel einer Beschäftigung über einen Vergleich des Berufs im neuen mit dem Beruf im vorangegangenen Beschäftigungsverhältnis festgestellt. Die so gewonnenen Mobilitätsdaten bieten zahlreiche Analysemöglichkeiten, die in dem Methodenbericht im Einzelnen dargestellt werden. Die Auswertungen können etwa auf Beschäftigungswechsel von sozialversicherungspflichtig oder geringfügig Beschäftigten oder auf Beschäftigungsaufnahmen nach einem Ausbildungsverhältnis eingeschränkt werden. Je nach Fragestellung kann die berufliche Mobilität aus einer Verbleibs- und Rekrutierungsperspektive oder im Stock-Flow-Zusammenhang betrachtet werden. Damit können Antworten auf zahlreiche Fragen gegeben werden, etwa: Wie viele Beschäftigte wechseln bei einer Beschäftigungsaufnahme ihren Beruf? In welchem Umfang werden neue Beschäftigte aus dem gleichen oder aus anderen Berufen rekrutiert? Welche Berufe gewinnen oder verlieren über berufliche Mobilitätsprozesse Beschäftigte?" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hild, Judith & Anica Kramer (2022): Should I stay or should I go? Frauen arbeiten nach einem MINT-Studium seltener in einem MINT-Beruf als Männer (Serie "Frauen in MINT-Berufen"). In: IAB-Forum H. 17.03.2022 Nürnberg, 2022-03-08. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20220317.01

Abstract

"Absolut studieren heute dreimal mehr Frauen ein Fach aus dem Bereich Mathematik, Informatik, Naturwissenschaft und Technik (MINT) als noch vor 20 Jahren. Zugleich entscheiden sich Frauen nach einem abgeschlossenen MINT-Studium seltener als Männer dafür, tatsächlich einen MINT-Beruf zu ergreifen. Dies dürfte auch an fehlenden Rollenvorbildern und unklaren Berufsvorstellungen liegen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Keitel, Christiane, Barbara Schwengler, Holger Seibert & Doris Wiethölter; Barbara Schwengler, Holger Seibert & Doris Wiethölter (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2022): Helfertätigkeiten werden nicht nur von Ungelernten ausgeübt (Interview mit Barbara Schwengler, Holger Seibert und Doris Wiethölter). In: IAB-Forum H. 19.07.2022 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20220719.01

Abstract

"Ein aktueller IAB-Kurzbericht (14/2022) widmet sich den Helfertätigkeiten, die im Schnitt vergleichsweise niedrig entlohnt sind. Dies trifft aber nicht für alle diese Tätigkeiten zu. In bestimmten Konstellationen können ausgebildete Fachkräfte auf Helfertätigkeiten höhere Verdienste erzielen als im erlernten Beruf. Die Redaktion des IAB-Forum hat dazu bei Holger Seibert, Barbara Schwengler und Doris Wiethölter nachgefragt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Moawad, Jad (2022): Labour market prospects of young adults in Europe: differential effects of social origin during the Great Recession. In: European Societies, Jg. 24, H. 5, S. 521-547. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2022.2043409

Abstract

"Research on the direct effect of social origin (DESO) focuses on how background influences later labour market outcomes after accounting for education. Growing up in a household of low social origin might decrease the chances of certain future outcomes; however, the extent to which this matters is contingent on the economic cycle. Using the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and the European Social Survey (ESS) between 2002 and 2014, we analyse whether the gap in the DESO in terms of employment and earnings widened following the Great Recession for young adults (25-34) in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that young adults of high social origin faced more disadvantages in terms of employment than young adults of low social origin in France, Spain and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, analyses show that young adults of low social origin experienced more disadvantages in terms of earnings than their counterparts of high social origin in Spain." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riekhoff, Aart-Jan (2022): Good or bad (in)stability? A cross-cohort study of the relation between career stability and earnings mobility in Finland. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 77. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2022.100674

Abstract

"Although recent studies have found no signs of drastic destabilisation of employment and careers, it is possible that the returns of having a stable or unstable career have changed. This study looks at the link between early-career stability and earnings mobility in Finland: 1) What are the size and direction of the relations between various indicators of career stability and earnings mobility in early working life, and 2) Have these relations changed across cohorts? It uses longitudinal register data of earnings and employment from the Finnish Centre for Pensions, covering cohorts born between 1940 and 1980 for the years 1963–2019 (5396 individuals and 72,578 observations). Growth curve models are applied where repeated observations between the ages 23 and 39 are nested within individuals. Earnings are regressed on three types of career stability indicators: cumulative time in non-employment, tenure with the current employer and the cumulative job changes. Results show overall negative associations of earnings with career breaks and positive associations with tenure and job transitions, but also some differences in these associations by gender and education levels. The link between the career stability indicators and earnings mobility is relatively similar across cohorts, with few exceptions. The positive relation with tenure has decreased and even turned negative for women. Moreover, economic crisis in the early 1990s might have presented a temporary shock to the relation between career breaks and job changes on the one hand, and earnings mobility on the other." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))

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Rinn, Maren & Heiko Rudolf (2022): Erwerbsbiografische Veränderungen beim Beschäftigungswechsel. (Grundlagen: Methodenbericht / Bundesagentur für Arbeit), Nürnberg, 20 S.

Abstract

"Der vorliegende Methodenbericht stellt neue Analysemöglichkeiten zu Wechseln zwischen zwei Beschäftigungsverhältnissen vor. Auf Basis zwei verschiedener Suchvarianten wird die vor Beginn eines Beschäftigungsverhältnisses zuletzt beendete Beschäftigung gesucht. Für das vorangegangene Beschäftigungsverhältnis können der Beruf und viele weitere Merkmale der Beschäftigung sowie die Branche, der Arbeits- und Wohnort und die Dauer des beendeten Beschäftigungsverhältnisses ausgewertet werden. Im Vergleich von neuem und altem Beschäftigungsverhältnis lassen sich Aussagen zu Veränderungen in der Erwerbsbiographie für alle dem Meldeverfahren zur Sozialversicherung unterliegenden Beschäftigungsverhältnisse treffen. Auf dieser Grundlage ist künftig vor allem die Betrachtung der beruflichen und regionalen Mobilität sowie der Wechsel zwischen den Branchen möglich. Nach Veröffentlichung dieses Methodenberichts wird die statistische Berichterstattung über erwerbsbiografische Veränderungen beim Beginn eines Beschäftigungsverhältnisses nach und nach aufgebaut und in die allgemeine Berichterstattung zum Arbeitsmarkt aufgenommen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Seibert, Holger, Barbara Schwengler & Doris Wiethölter (2022): Berufsspezifische Lohnunterschiede: In einigen Helferjobs verdienen Fachkräfte mehr als in ihrem erlernten Beruf. (IAB-Kurzbericht 14/2022), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2214

Abstract

"Auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt dominieren Tätigkeiten mit mittleren und hohen Qualifikationsanforderungen. Daneben existiert im Helfersegment eine Reihe einfacher Tätigkeiten, die im Schnitt vergleichsweise niedrig entlohnt werden. Das trifft aber nicht für alle Helfertätigkeiten zu. In bestimmten Konstellationen können ausgebildete Fachkräfte auf Helferniveau höhere Verdienste erzielen als im erlernten Beruf." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Torre, Margarita (2022): The Scarring Effect of "Women’s Work". The Determinants of Women’s Attrition from Male-dominated Occupations. (OSF preprints), 47 S.

Abstract

"Women's entry into formerly male-dominated occupations has increased in recent decades, yet a significant outflow remains. This study examines the determinants of women's exits from male-dominated occupations, focusing on the effect of previous occupational trajectories. In particular, it hypothesizes that occupational trajectories in female-dominated occupations are often imbued with meanings and beliefs about the (in)appropriateness of the worker, which adversely affect women's integration and chances when they enter the male sector. Using the NLSY79 data set, the study analyzes the job histories of women employed in the United States between 1979 and 2006. The results reveal a disproportionate risk of exit among newcomers from female-dominated occupations. Also, women who reenter the male field are more likely to leave it again. Altogether, the findings challenge explanations based on deficiencies in the information available to women at the moment of hiring. The evidence points to the existence of a “scar effect” of previous work in the female field, which hinders women's opportunities in the male sector and ends up increasing the likelihood of exit." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wilmers, Nathan & William Kimball (2022): How Internal Hiring Affects Occupational Stratification. In: Social forces, Jg. 101, H. 1, S. 111-149. DOI:10.1093/sf/soab131

Abstract

"When employers conduct more internal hiring, does this facilitate upward mobility for low-paid workers or does it protect the already advantaged? To assess the effect of within-employer job mobility on occupational stratification, we develop a framework that accounts for inequality in both rates and payoffs of job changing. Internal hiring facilitates advancement for workers without strong credentials, but it excludes workers at employers with few good jobs to advance into. Analyzing Current Population Survey data, we find that when internal hiring increases in a local labor market, it facilitates upward mobility less than when external hiring increases. When workers in low-paid occupations switch jobs, they benefit more from switching employers than from moving jobs within the same employer. One-third of this difference is due to low-paid workers isolated in industries with few high-paying jobs to transfer into. An occupationally segregated labor market therefore limits the benefits that internal hiring can bring to the workers who most need upward mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Witteveen, Dirk (2022): Parental Over- and Undereducation and Offspring Earnings. (SocArXiv papers), 35 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/p9d36

Abstract

"The ORU model has become one of the most accustomed ways to measure the joint impact of required level of education of the job and the education-occupation matching of the worker on their earnings. The broader implications of overeducation and undereducation for socio-economic stratification are however less straightforward. This study contributes to our understanding of the long-term and far-reaching consequences of education-occupation matching by estimating the ORU parameters of parents for the earnings levels of their offspring. After introduction of the “intergenerational ORU model,” we measure associations between parental ORU (overeducation, required education, and undereducation) and earnings among individuals during occupational maturity in the United States (using the NLSY79) and the United Kingdom (using the UKHLS). Results echo findings from the standard ORU model. Years of “matched education-occupation” (R) of the parents’ job increases offspring earnings by about 9.9% (US) and about 8.2% (UK), while years of parents’ “surplus occupation” (U) increases offspring earnings by about 4.0% (US) and about 3.7% (UK). We find a positive effect of “surplus education” (O) in the US, but not the UK. Similar to intergenerational mobility models, parental ORU estimates are moderated by offspring own education yet remain statistically significant. Further analyses explore gender differences in both generations. Implications for ORU research and intergenerational mobility research are discussed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Wotschack, Philip & Claire Samtleben (2022): Vom Helfer zur Fachkraft durch betriebliche Weiterbildung? Berufliche Aufstiege und Lohnveränderungen von an- und ungelernten Beschäftigten in regulierten und unregulierten internen Arbeitsmärkten. In: Soziale Welt, Jg. 73, H. 2, S. 309-352. DOI:10.5771/0038-6073-2022-2-309

Abstract

"Ein erheblicher Teil der an- und ungelernten Beschäftigten in Deutschland übt Fachkrafttätigkeiten aus, für die eigentlich ein formaler Berufsabschluss erforderlich ist. Der vorliegende Artikel untersucht vor diesem Hintergrund die Rolle von non-formalen betrieblichen Weiterbildungsaktivitäten für berufliche Aufstiege von An- und Ungelernten im internen Arbeitsmarkt. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Frage nach der Rolle regulierender Strukturen. Ausgehend von der Humankapital- und Filtertheorie sowie dem Labor-Queue-Modell werden Hypothesen zum Einfluss betrieblicher Weiterbildungsaktivitäten auf berufliche Statusveränderungen und Lohnzuwächse von vollzeitbeschäftigten An- und Ungelernten formuliert und mit Linked-Employer-Employee Daten (LIAB) für den Zeitraum von 2005 bis 2010 getestet. Unterschiede der Regulierung des internen Arbeits-marktes werden bezüglich tariflicher Standards, einer formalisierten Personalarbeit oder Interessenvertretungsstrukturen untersucht. Darüber hinaus wird die Rolle von Betriebswechseln berücksichtigt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einen positiven Zusammenhang von regelmäßigen betrieblichen Weiterbildungsinvestitionen und beruflichen Statusverbesserungen für An- und Ungelernte, die im Untersuchungszeitraum nicht den Betrieb gewechselt haben („Stayer“). Dieser ist stärker in regulierten internen Arbeitsmärkten ausgeprägt und geht dort auch eher mit einer höheren Lohnentwicklung einher. Bei einer hohen Weiterbildungsquote von An- und Ungelernten sinken hingegen die Chancen, zur Fachkraft aufzusteigen. Damit ist der berufliche Aufstieg für An- und Ungelernte in den Betrieben erschwert, die in der Weiterbildung dieser Gruppe besonders aktiv sind. Berufliche Statusverbesserungenlassen sich unter diesen Bedingungen eher im Rahmen von Betriebswechseln(„Mover“) realisieren. Insgesamt verweist die Untersuchung auf die Wichtigkeit regulierender Strukturen des internen Arbeitsmarktes für den beruflichen Aufstieg von An- und Ungelernten im Rahmen betrieblicher Weiterbildung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © Nomos)

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Ahrsjö, Ulrika, René Karadakic & Joachim Kahr Rasmussen (2021): Intergenerational Mobility Trends and the Changing Role of Female Labor. (CEBI working paper series 2021,19), Copenhagen, 54 S.

Abstract

"We present new evidence on the existence and drivers of trends in intergenerational income mobility using administrative income data from Scandinavia along with survey data from the United States. Harmonizing the data from Sweden, Denmark and Norway, we first find that intergenerational rank associations in income have increased uniformly across Scandinavia for cohorts of children born between 1951 and 1979. These trends are robust to a large set of empirical specifications that are common in the associated literature. However, splitting the trends by gender, we find that father-son mobility has been stable in all three countries, while correlations involving females display substantial trends. Similar patterns are confirmed in the US data, albeit with slightly different timing. Utilizing information about individual occupation, education and income in the Scandinavian data, we find that intergenerational mobility in latent economic status has remained relatively constant for all gender combinations. This suggests that a gradual reduction in gender-specific labor market segregation, increased female labor force participation and increased female access to higher education has strengthened the signal value that maternal income carries about productivity passed on to children. Based on these results, we argue that the observed decline in intergenerational mobility in Scandinavia is consistent with a socially desirable development where female skills are increasingly valued at the labor market, and that the same is likely to be true also in the US." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bagger, Jesper, Espen R. Moen & Rune Majlund Vejlin (2021): Equilibrium Worker-Firm Allocations and the Deadweight Losses of Taxation. (IZA discussion paper 14865), Bonn, 57 S.

Abstract

"We analyse the deadweight losses of tax-induced labor misallocation in an equilibrium model of the labour market where workers search to climb a job ladder and firms post vacancies. Workers differ in abilities. Jobs differ in productivities and amenities. A planner uses affine tax functions to finance lump-sum transfers to all workers and unemployment benefits. The competitive search equilibrium maximizes after-tax utility subject to resource constraints and the tax policy. A higher tax rate distorts search effort, job ranking and vacancy creation. Distortions vary on the job ladder, but always result in deadweight losses. We calibrate the model using matched employer-employee data from Denmark. The marginal deadweight loss is 33 percent of the tax base, and primarily arise from distorted search effort and vacancy creation. Steeply rising deadweight losses from distorted vacancy creation imply that the deadweight loss in the calibrated economy exceeds those incurred by very inequality averse social planners." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Balke, Neele & Thibaut Lamadon (2021): Productivity shocks, long-term contracts and earnings dynamics. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2021,19), Uppsala, 78 S.

Abstract

"This paper examines how employer- and worker-specific productivity shocks transmit to earnings and employment in an economy with search frictions and firm commitment. We develop an equilibrium search model with worker and firm shocks and characterize the optimal contract offered by competing firms to attract and retain workers. In equilibrium, riskneutral firms provide only partial insurance against shocks to risk-averse workers and offer contingent contracts, where payments are backloaded in good times and frontloaded in bad times. We prove that there exists a unique spot target wage, which serves as an attraction point for smooth wage adjustments. The structural model is estimated on matched employer-employee data from Sweden. The estimates indicate that firms absorb persistent worker and firm shocks, with respective passthrough values of 27 and 11%, but price permanent worker differences, a large contributor (32%) to variations in wages. A large share of the earnings growth variance can be attributed to job mobility, which interacts with productivity shocks. We evaluate the effects of redistributive policies and find that almost 40% of government-provided insurance is undone by crowding out firm-provided insurance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ballarino, Gabriele, Stefano Cantalini & Nazareno Panichella (2021): Social origin and compensation patterns over the occupational career in Italy. In: Acta sociologica, Jg. 64, H. 2, S. 166-183. DOI:10.1177/0001699320920917

Abstract

"This paper studies dynamically the direct effect of social origin on occupational destinations among men in Italy over the career. It aims at investigating the existence, the pattern over time and the heterogeneity of differences in occupational achievement related to social origins, net of education (DESO) and occupational allocation at first job. It also analyses if the change of the DESO over the career is related to the effect of specific job change episodes (voluntary job change, involuntary job change, internal career move). Results based on growth curve models show the relevance of first job in shaping the DESO, which also slightly increases over the career. The DESO is stronger among highly educated individuals, confirming a boosting pattern primarily driven by a better allocation at first job. The (smaller) DESO among the low-educated, increasing over the career, depends from the higher probabilities to benefit from voluntary and internal career job changes for the children of the service class. The (stronger) DESO among the highly educated is driven by the higher probabilities of experiencing internal career mobility for the children of the service class as well as by their ability to benefit also from an involuntary job change (e.g. dismissal)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bonhomme, Stephane, Kerstin Holzheu, Thibaut Lamadon, Elena Manresa, Magne Mogstad & Bradley Setzler (2021): How much should we trust estimates of firm effects and worker sorting? (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy 2021,20), Uppsala, 76 S.

Abstract

"Many studies use matched employer-employee data to estimate a statistical model of earnings determination where log-earnings are expressed as the sum of worker effects, firm effects, covariates, and idiosyncratic error terms. Estimates based on this model have produced two influential yet controversial conclusions. First, firm effects typically explain around 20% of the variance of log-earnings, pointing to the importance of firm-specific wage-setting for earnings inequality. Second, the correlation between firm and worker effects is often small and sometimes negative, indicating little if any sorting of high-wage workers to high-paying firms. The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of these conclusions to the biases that arise because of limited mobility of workers across firms. We use employer-employee data from the US and several European countries while taking advantage of both fixed-effects and random-effects methods for bias-correction. We find that limited mobility bias is severe and that bias-correction is important. Once one corrects for limited mobility bias, firm effects dispersion matters less for earnings inequality and worker sorting becomes always positive and typically strong." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Büchler, Theresa & Henning Lohmann (2021): Bildungsmobilität über drei Generationen in Deutschland. Die Dynamik von Auf- und Abstiegen. In: Soziale Welt, Jg. 72, H. 3, S. 283-312. DOI:10.5771/0038-6073-2021-3-283

Abstract

"In der vorliegenden Studie untersuchen wir, ob der Bildungserfolg von jungen Erwachsenen neben der elterlichen Bildung auch vom Bildungsgrad der Großeltern beeinflusst wird. Mit Blick auf Prozesse der dreigenerationalen Vererbung von Bildung in Deutschland fokussieren wir dabei insbesondere auf Muster von Gegenmobilität, indem wir Auf- und Abstiege der Elterngeneration in den Blick nehmen. Wir betrachten den Bildungsabschluss junger Erwachsener und untersuchen, ob sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit bis zum Alter von 21 Jahren ein Abitur zu erlangen zwischen Personen aus Familien mit Auf- und Abstiegserfahrungen unterscheidet. Außerdem diskutieren wir mögliche Mechanismen von direkten oder indirekten Großelterneinflüssen. Wir verwenden Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP). Die Ergebnisse liefern Hinweise auf einen Einfluss großelterlicher Bildungsressourcen, die insbesondere bei elterlichen Bildungsabstiegen eine kompensatorische Wirkung entfalten. Dieser Befund bleibt auch nach umfassender Kontrolle weiterer Variablen bestehen. Keine Hinweise finden wir hingegen für kumulative Vorteile, wenn bereits die Elterngeneration ein hohes Bildungsniveau aufweist. Zusätzliche Analysen für verschiedene Subgruppen stützen die zentralen Befunde." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos, Alex Clymo & Melvyn Coles (2021): Equilibrium Job Turnover and the Business Cycle. (IZA discussion paper 14869), Bonn, 65 S.

Abstract

"This paper develops and estimates a fully microfounded equilibrium business cycle model of the US labor market with aggregate productivity shocks. Those microfoundations are consistent with evidence regarding the underlying distribution of firm growth rates across firms [by age and size] and, when aggregated, are consistent with macro-evidence regarding gross job creation and job destruction flows over the cycle. By additionally incorporating on-the-job search, we systematically characterise the stochastic relationships between aggregate job creation and job destruction flows across firms, gross hire and quit flows [churning] by workers across firms, as well as the persistence and volatility of unemployment and worker job finding rates over the cycle." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Criscuolo, Chiara, Alexander Hijzen, Michael Koelle, Cyrille Schwellnus, Erling Barth, Wen-Hao Chen, Richard Fabling, Priscilla Fialho, Alfred Garloff, Katharzyna Grabska, Ryo Kambayashi, Valerie Lankester, Balazs Stadler, Oskar Nordström Skans, Satu Nurmi, Balazs Murakozy, Richard Upward & Wouter Zwysen (2021): The firm-level link between productivity dispersion and wage inequality: A symptom of low job mobility? (OECD Economics Department working papers 1656), Paris, 45 S. DOI:10.1787/4c6131e3-en

Abstract

"Differences in average wages across firms – which account for around one-half of overall wage inequality – are mainly explained by differences in firm wage premia (the part of wages that depends exclusively on characteristics of firms) rather than workforce composition. Using a new cross-country dataset of linked employer-employee data, this paper investigates the role of cross-firm dispersion in productivity in explaining dispersion in firm wage premia, as well as the factors shaping the link between productivity and wages at the firm level. The results suggest that around 15% of cross-firm differences in productivity are passed on to differences in firm wage premia. The degree of pass-through is systematically larger in countries and industries with more limited job mobility, where low-productivity firms can afford to pay lower wage premia relative to high-productivity ones without a substantial fraction of workers quitting their jobs. Stronger product market competition raises pass-through while more centralised bargaining and higher minimum wages constrain firm-level wage setting at any given level of productivity dispersion. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that the key priority should be to promote job mobility, which would reduce wage differences between firms while easing the efficient reallocation of workers across them." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Czaller, László, Rikard H. Eriksson & Balázs Lengyel (2021): Reducing automation risk through career mobility. Where and for whom? In: Papers in Regional Science, Jg. 100, H. 6, S. 1545-1569. DOI:10.1111/pirs.12635

Abstract

"Automation risk prevails less in large cities compared to small cities but little is known about the drivers of this emerging urban phenomenon. A major challenge is that automation risk is quantified by work-related tasks that allows for measurement through occupation, which is in turn implicitly related to local economic structure and to individual career paths. This paper examines the role of working in cities on changes in automation risk through individual career mobility. Using panel data on Swedish workers, we show that the metropolitan effect of reducing automation risk is mainly induced through inter-firm job mobility. Separate estimates for different groups show that this effect accrues mostly to native, high-skilled and male workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Dauth, Wolfgang, Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Südekum (2021): Adjusting to globalization in Germany. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 39, H. 1, S. 263-302., 2019-11-14. DOI:10.1086/707356

Abstract

"We study the impact of trade exposure on the job biographies of 2.4 million manufacturing workers in Germany. Rising export opportunities lead to two equally important sources of earnings gains: on-the-job, and via employer switches within the same industry. Highly skilled workers benefit the most. Import shocks mostly hurt lowskilled workers, especially when they possess lots of industry-specific human capital. They also destroy workers rents when separating from high-wage plants, and they leave strongly scarring effects in the event of a mass layoff. We connect our results to the growing theoretical literature on the labor market effects of trade." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Engzell, Per & Nathan Wilmers (2021): Firms and the Intergenerational Transmission of Labor Market Advantage. (SocArXiv papers), 62 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/mv3e9

Abstract

"Recent research finds that pay inequality stems both from firm pay-setting and from workers’ individual characteristics. Yet, intergenerational mobility research remains focused on transmission of individual traits, and has failed to test how firms shape the inheritance of inequality. We study this question using three decades of Swedish population register data, and decompose the intergenerational earnings correlation into firm pay premiums and stable worker effects. One quarter of the intergenerational earnings correlation at midlife is explained by sorting between firms with unequal pay. Employer or industry inheritance account for a surprisingly small share of this firm-based earnings transmission. Instead, children from high-income backgrounds benefit from matching with high-paying firms irrespective of the sources of parents’ earnings advantage. Our analysis reveals how an imperfectly competitive labor market provides an opening for skill-based rewards in one generation to become class-based advantages in the next." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ette, Andreas & Nils Witte (2021): Brain Drain or Brain Circulation? Economic and Non-Economic Factors Driving the International Migration of German Citizens. In: M. Erlinghagen, A. Ette, N. F. Schneider & N. Witte (Hrsg.) (2021): ¬The¬ Global Lives of German Migrants, S. 65-83. DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-67498-4_4

Abstract

"International movements by people from economically highly developed welfare states are a puzzle for the classic canon of migration theories, which generally focus on flows from less to more developed regions. Based on a simple theoretical framework linking largely disparate literatures on international and internal migration as well as the field of global work experience, this chapter provides an analysis of the emigration and remigration decisions of German citizens. Whereas the five theoretical dimensions-expected financial returns, job satisfaction, social capital, mobility capital, and employment in transnational professions-already explain much of the variance in the emigration decisions, the theoretical and empirical understanding of remigration decision-making processes remains a challenge. Contributing to recent debates about a brain drain from economically highly developed countries, this chapter provides evidence that the international migration of German citizens is best understood as brain circulation. Temporary migration dominates these international movements and emigrants are similar to remigrants along many theoretical dimensions. Although some indications for a potential loss of human capital caused by international migration do exist, they remain insignificant in light of Germany’s overall volume of international migration. Political debates about flows of people from highly developed countries should focus less on potential losses of human capital for national economies and more on the economic and non-economic returns international migration offers for individual life courses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer) ((en))

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Fallick, Bruce, John C. Haltiwanger, Erika McEntarfer & Matthew Staiger (2021): Job Displacement and Job Mobility: The Role of Joblessness. (NBER working paper 29187), Cambridge, Mass, 51 S. DOI:10.3386/w29187

Abstract

"Who is harmed by and who benefits from worker reallocation? We investigate the earnings consequences of changing jobs and find a wide dispersion in outcomes. This dispersion is driven not by whether the worker was displaced, but by the duration of joblessness between job spells. Job movers who experience joblessness suffer a persistent reduction in earnings and tend to move to lower-paying firms, suggesting that job ladder models offer a useful lens through which to understand the negative consequences of job separations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Grätz, Michael (2021): Does Regime Change Affect Intergenerational Mobility? Evidence from German Reunification. In: European Sociological Review, Jg. 37, H. 3, S. 465-481. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcaa061

Abstract

"This study uses the natural experiment of German reunification and a difference-in-differences approach to test whether the political and economic transition in East Germany in 1990 affected intergenerational occupational and educational mobility. Results obtained using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study show that German reunification did neither strongly affect occupational nor educational mobility. These findings are robust to operationalizing social origin in various ways. Admittedly, reunification may have had small or long-term effects on occupational and educational mobility that cannot be uncovered with the data and research design employed in this study. However, the findings rule out that there were large, short- or medium-term effects of German reunification on intergenerational mobility. These findings are at odds with theories that argue that institutional change has strong, immediate causal effects on intergenerational mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Halvorsen, Elin, Serdar Ozkan & Sergio Salgado (2021): Earnings Dynamics and Its Intergenerational Transmission: Evidence from Norway. (Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2021,15), Saint Louis, MO, 70 S. DOI:10.20955/wp.2021.015

Abstract

"Using administrative data from Norway, we first present stylized facts on labor earnings dynamics between 1993 and 2017 and its heterogeneity across narrow population groups. We then investigate the parents' role in children's income dynamics—the intergenerational transmission of income dynamics. We find that children of high-income, high-wealth fathers enjoy steeper income growth over the life cycle and face more volatile but more positively skewed income changes, suggesting that they are more likely to pursue high-return, high-risk careers. Children of poorer fathers also face more volatile incomes, but theirs grow more gradually and are more left skewed. Furthermore, the income dynamics of fathers and children are strongly correlated. In particular, children of fathers with steeper life-cycle income growth, more volatile incomes, or higher downside risk also have income streams of similar properties. We also confirm that fathers' significant role in workers' income dynamics is not simply spurious because of omitted variables, such as workers' own permanent income. These findings shed new light on the determinants of intergenerational mobility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kenedi, Gustave & Louis Sirugue (2021): The Anatomy of Intergenerational Income Mobility in France and its Spatial Variations. (PSE working paper / Paris School of Economics 2021-59 halshs-03455282), Paris, 83 S.

Abstract

"We provide new estimates of intergenerational income mobility in France for children born in the 1970s using rich administrative data. Since parents' incomes are not observed, we employ a two-sample two-stage least squares estimation procedure. At the national level, every measure of intergenerational income persistence (intergenerational elasticities, rank-rank correlations, and transition matrices) suggests that France is characterized by relatively strong persistence relative to other developed countries. Children born to parents in the bottom 20% of their income distribution have a 10.1% probability of reaching the top 20% as adults. This probability is of 39.1% for children born to parents in the top 20%. At the local level, we find substantial spatial variations in intergenerational mobility. It is higher in the West of France and particularly low in the North and in the South. We uncover significant relationships between absolute upward mobility and characteristics of the environment an individual grew up in, such as the unemployment rate, population density, and income inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kiersztyn, Anna (2021): Who moves from fixed-term to open-ended contracts? Youth employment transitions in a segmented labour market. In: Acta sociologica, Jg. 64, H. 2, S. 198-214. DOI:10.1177/0001699320920910

Abstract

"This article explores the career effects of fixed-term employment among Polish youth, taking into account specific legal and institutional arrangements affecting both the incidence of temporary jobs and the chances of moving into more stable employment contracts. The aim of the analysis is twofold. First, it seeks to assess whether temporary contracts serve as a stepping-stone to stable employment or a trap leading to fragmented careers consisting of recurrent short-term jobs. Second, it identifies the factors which increase the chances of successful labour market integration. Both issues are addressed through a quantitative analysis of retrospective career data for a cohort of respondents aged 21-30 from two waves of the Polish Panel Survey (POLPAN), 2008 and 2013. Results suggest that temporary employment is not restricted to entry-level jobs and acts as a trap rather than a stepping-stone. In addition, the opportunities for moving from fixed-term to open-ended contracts appear to have deteriorated over the years. However, gaining early on-the-job experience, especially in occupations involving highly complex tasks, may improve the chances of attaining job stability." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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König, Franziska (2021): Berufliches Crossover zwischen ökonomischer und soziokultureller Fachwelt. Eine biografieanalytische Untersuchung. (Qualitative Fall- und Prozessanalysen 23), Leverkusen: Verlag Barbara Budrich, 224 S.

Abstract

"Der Wechsel in eine andere berufliche Fachwelt stellt Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmer vor neue Aufgaben und Herausforderungen. Welche individuellen Voraussetzungen müssen erfüllt und welche institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen sollten gegeben sein, damit ein erfolgreiches berufliches Crossover gelingt? Die Studie zeigt, dass das Crossover zwischen den Fachwelten ein gesamtbiografischer Prozess ist, der sich in den Biografien der Befragten nicht erst im Berufsleben abzeichnet. Erfolgreiche Fachweltwechsel werden von den hybriden Kompetenzen des Einzelnen bedingt und nur selten durch institutionelle und soziale Unterstützungsangebote begleitet." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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Maczulskij, Terhi (2021): Occupational Mobility of Routine Workers. (ETLA working papers 87), Helsinki, 40 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyzes whether occupational polarization takes place within workers or due to changes in the composition of workers by using comprehensive panel data from Finland. The decomposition analysis shows that the decrease in mid-level routine occupations and the simultaneous increase in high-level abstract occupations is largely a within-worker phenomenon. In contrast, the share of low-skilled nonroutine manual tasks has largely increased through entry dynamics. Data on plant closures are used to identify involuntary separations from routine occupations. These results demonstrate a strong, uneven adjustment pattern, with routine cognitive workers being more able to move to abstract tasks and adjust with smaller wage costs than routine manual workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Matthies, Hildegard (2021): Cooling out in der Arbeitswelt: Berufswechsel als Folge eines Mismatch von Habitus und Feld. In: Berliner Journal für Soziologie, Jg. 31, H. 3/4, S. 415-443. DOI:10.1007/s11609-021-00453-7

Abstract

"In diesem Beitrag werden Berufswechsel aus der Cooling-out-Perspektive rekonstruiert. Dabei wird das Cooling-out-Konzept in zweierlei Hinsicht erweitert. Erstens wird es mit Blick auf die an Goffman anschließende Diskussion nicht nur als eine von außen auf ein Subjekt gerichtete Selektionsstrategie aufgefasst, sondern auch als eine von innen kommende Strategie der Krisenintervention zur Verarbeitung von beruflichen Enttäuschungen. Zweitens wird ein berufliches Cooling out in Anlehnung an Bourdieu als Folge eines misslungenen Passungsverhältnisses von beruflichen Bewährungsbedingungen und individuellen Dispositionen konzeptualisiert, um die Entweder-oder-Struktur von Selbst- versus Fremdselektion zu überwinden und auch das „Dazwischen“ von Feld und Subjekt in den Blick zu nehmen. Am Beispiel von empirischen Fallstudien unter Berufswechslern wird gezeigt, dass Entscheidungen für einen Berufswechsel keiner der beiden Seiten allein zugeschlagen werden können, sondern lediglich den Endpunkt einer kontinuierlichen biographischen Erfahrungsaufschichtung darstellen, an der individuelle Dispositionen ebenso wie Feldstrukturen ihren Anteil haben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag)

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Nennstiel, Richard (2021): On the way to becoming a society of downward mobility? Intergenerational occupational mobility in seven West German birth cohorts (1944–1978). In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 73, S. 1-11. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2021.100609

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Pohlig, Matthias (2021): Occupational mobility in Europe during the crisis. Did the social elevator break? In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 72, S. 1-16. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100549

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Prümer, Stephanie (2021): Sector switching in Germany. (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität, Lehrstuhl für Arbeitsmarkt- und Regionalpolitik. Diskussionspapiere 122), Nürnberg, 40 S.

Abstract

"Wechsel des Beschäftigungssektors im Laufe des Berufslebens, d. h. der Wechsel vom privaten in den öffentlichen Sektor oder umgekehrt, sind häufig, wurden bisher jedoch kaum untersucht. Mit Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels für Deutschland gebe ich Einblicke in diese Sektorwechsel. Außerdem analysiere ich, ob sozio-demografische Merkmale oder Einstellungen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, den Sektoren zu wechseln, beeinflussen. Ich zeige, dass Frauen mit höherer Wahrscheinlichkeit in den öffentlichen Sektor wechseln als Männer und dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Wechsels in den öffentlichen Sektor positiv mit Bildung korreliert. Demgegenüber sind Einstellungen und nicht sozio-demografische Merkmale für die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Wechsels in den privaten Sektor relevant. Ich folgere aus meiner Analyse, dass die Vertiefung des Wissen über Sektorwechsel das Personalmanagement im öffentlichen Sektor bereichern kann." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Richardson, Nela & Sara Klein (2021): People at Work 2021: A Global Workforce View. Roseland, 48 S.

Abstract

"This report provides a starting point to understand the situation facing employees today across five dimensions of working life: worker confidence and job security; workplace conditions; pay and performance; worker mobility; and gender and family." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Salvanes, Kjell G., Barton Willage & Alexander L. P. Willén (2021): The Effect of Labor Market Shocks across the Life Cycle. (CESifo working paper 9491), München, 65 S.

Abstract

"Adverse economic shocks occur frequently and may cause individuals to reevaluate key life decisions in ways that have lasting consequences for themselves and the economy. These life decisions are fundamentally tied to specific periods of an individual's career, and economic shocks may therefore have substantially different impacts on individuals – and the broader economy - depending on when they occur. We exploit mass layoffs and establishment closures to examine the impact of adverse shocks across the life cycle on labor market outcomes and major life decisions: human capital investment, mobility, family structure, and retirement. Our results reveal substantial heterogeneity on labor market effects and life decisions in response to economic shocks across the life cycle. Individuals at the beginning of their careers invest in human capital and relocate to new labor markets, individuals in the middle of their careers reduce fertility and adjust family formation decisions, and individuals at the end of their careers permanently exit the workforce and retire. As a consequence of the differential interactions between economic shocks and life decisions, the very long-term career implications of labor shocks vary considerably depending on when the shock occurs. We conclude that effects of adverse labor shocks are both more varied and more extensive than has previously been recognized, and that focusing on average effects among workers across the life cycle misses a great deal." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schmidt, Jörg (2021): Arbeitskräftefluktuation im Jahr 2020: Pandemie hinterlässt Spuren. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2021,82), Köln, 3 S.

Abstract

"Die Arbeitskräftefluktuation liegt in Deutschland seit Jahren auf einem ähnlichen Niveau, sie ist aber im Zuge der Corona-Pandemie im Jahr 2020 gesunken. Grundsätzlich weisen Männer, Jüngere, Auszubildende und Geringqualifizierte zwar höhere Fluktuationsraten auf, im Vergleich zum Vorjahr reduzierten sich die Arbeitskräftebewegungen aber bei den untersuchten Gruppen in einem relativ ähnlichen Umfang." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Seifried, Mareike (2021): Transitions From Offline to Online Labor Markets: The Relationship Between Freelancers' Prior Offline and Online Work Experience. (ZEW discussion paper 21-101), Mannheim, 42 S.

Abstract

"An emerging stream of research from various disciplines studies online labor market (OLM) platforms as an alternative way of accomplishing work compared to traditional (offline) labor markets. Although prior work has increased our understanding of how OLM platforms function, we so far know very little about the relationship between what workers have done before entering the platform and the skill content of their online jobs. However, the question of why workers do the jobs they do in an online context and what drives their decision is fundamental to understanding how these markets function and are used by workers. Using data on 4,771 freelancers working on Upwork.com, the world’s leading freelancing website, we compare the skill content of their online jobs with their last reported offline prior to platform entry. Based on prior work on occupational mobility (Gathmann & Schönberg, 2010) and human capital investments (Becker, 1962), we hypothesize and find that workers with more valuable skillsets adjust their skill portfolios less while working online, i.e. the distance between their offline and online skill portfolio is lower. We further show that being female, coming from an advanced economy and reporting having current offline employment moderates the relationship between skill value and skill distance." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Silva, Marta & Jose Garcia-Louzao (2021): Coworker Networks and the Labor Market Outcomes of Displaced Workers: Evidence from Portugal. (Working paper series / Lietuvos Bankas 95), Vilnius, 36 S.

Abstract

"The use of social contacts in the labor market is widespread. This paper investigates the impact of personal connections on hiring probabilities and re-employment outcomes of displaced workers in Portugal. We rely on rich matched employer-employee data to define personal connections that arise from interactions at the workplace. Our empirical strategy exploits firm closures to select workers who are exogenously forced to search for a new job and leverages variation across displaced workers with direct connections to prospective employers. The hiring analysis indicates that displaced workers with a direct link to a firm through a former coworker are roughly three times more likely to be hired compared to workers displaced from the same closing event who lack such a tie. However, we find that the effect varies according to the type of connection as well as firms' similarity. Finally, we show that successful displaced workers with a connection in the hiring firm have higher entry-level wages and enjoy greater job security although these advantages disappear over time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Söhn, Janina (2021): Berufswechsel messen. Methodische Erörterung zur Analyse horizontaler beruflicher Mobilität im Mikrozensus und im Nationalen Bildungspanel. (SOFI-Arbeitspapier 22), Göttingen, 71 S.

Abstract

"Dieses SOFI-Working Paper untersucht, wie mit zwei für Deutschland repräsentativen Survey, dem Mikrozensus und der Erwachsenenbefragung des Nationalen Bildungspanels, Berufswechsel gemessen, operationalisiert und empirisch analysiert werden können. Zum einen werden in jeder MZ-Welle Erwerbstätige direkt danach gefragt, ob sie in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten ihren ausgeübten Beruf offen ab, der dann in die "Klassifikation der Berufe" (DldB) 2010 eingeordnet wird. Diese Angabe kann dann mit dem einer vorangegangenen Erwerbstätigkeit vergleichen werden - im MZ mit der entsprechenden Information aus der Befragung ein Jahr zuvor, im NEPS mit der vorangegangenen Erwerbsperiode. Beide Umfragen bieten ausreichend hohe Fallzahlen, um sowohl die Inzidenz von Berufswechsel zu analysieren als auch Berufswechsel auf unterschiedliche Merkmale hin untereinander vergleichen. Das Working Paper zeigt im Detail, warum MZ subjektive und auf die KldB bezogenen Berufswechsel nur im Zusammenspiel mit einem Betriebswechsel in den vorangegangenen zwölf Monaten untersucht werden sollten. Mehrere Untersuchungsaspekte implizieren, dass die Antworten auf die direkte Frage nach einem Berufswechsel nur teilweise das Gleiche messen, wie wenn man den aktuell ausgeübten Beruf mit dem Befragungsjahr zuvor in Relation setzt. Während von einem Jahr auf das andere laut MZ in beiden Varianten nur gut 1% aller Erwerbstätigen die berufliche Tätigkeit und den Betrieb gewechselt haben, kann man im NEPS zeigen, dass sich bei gut der Hälfte aller Personen, die im Zeitraum von 20 Jahren jemals erwerbstätig waren, mindestens einmal die Berufsgruppe ändert. Dabei sind berufsfachlich große Wechsel häufiger als solche in benachbarte Berufsfelder hinein. Nur im NEPS können Berufswechsel mit dazwischen liegenden längeren Phasen der Nicht-Erwerbstätigkeit erfasst sowie die Dauer und Art dieser Nicht-Erwerbstätigkeit differenziert bestimmt werden. Mit dem MZ lassen sich aufgrund seiner besonders hohen Fallzahlen häufige Paare von Ausgangs- und Zielberufen unter Berufswecheln identifizieren. Ob für die Deskription oder als Prädiktorvariable in multivariaten Modellen als obere Aggregatebenen von Berufen und Berufswechseln die vom IAB/BA entwickelten 14 Berufssektoren oder die zwölf vom BIBB entwickelten Berufshauptfelder verwendet werden, hängt vom spezifischen Forschungsinteresse ab: Berufssegmente eigen sich bein einem Fokus auf das sekundäre Arbeitsmarktsegment mit ihrer Differenzierung zwischen Sicherheits-, Logistik-, Gastronomie- und Reinigungsberufe, im primären Arbeitsmarkt mit der Unterscheidung nachgefragter Berufe in der Pflege und Kindergärten sowie den IT-Berufen. Berufshauptfelder differieren besser zwischen Berufsgruppen mit akademischer Ausbildung, für deren Analyse wiederum das NEPS mit seinem "Akademiker-Bias" in den ungewichteten Daten besonders geeignet ist, während der MZ verlässlicher für Analysen für Berufswechsler:innen ohne oder mit beruflicher Ausbildung ist. Trotz großer Unterschiede in der Datenstruktur weisen MZ und NEPS viel Ähnlichkeiten bei dieser Analyse von Berufswechseln auf - ein guter Hinweis auf die Validität der Operationalisierung und der Qualität der Datensätze." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Westerman, Johan, Dirk Witteveen, Erik Bihagen & Roujman Shahbazian (2021): Career Complexity No Longer on the Rise. Comparing Early-and Mid-Career Complexity Across the 1930s thru 1980s Birth Cohortsin Sweden. (SocArXiv papers), 43 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/md4t3

Abstract

"There is a wide-spread idea that contemporary careers continue to become ever more complex. Pioneering research of full-career complexity has shown that work lives have indeed become more complex, yet at modest increasing pace. This paper examines whether career complexity continues to increase using Swedish registry data across an exceptionally long time period, including younger cohorts than in previous research: up to those born in 1983. The full early-and mid-careers of selected birth cohorts cover several macroeconomic booms and downturns, a long period of upskilling of the Swedish labor force, as well as the convergence of working hours of women and men. The following conclusions are drawn using state-of-the-art methods of measuring career complexity. For early-careers, an increasing complexity trend is evident between the 1950s and 1960s birth cohorts, yet complexity fluctuates around a stable trend for the 1970s birth cohorts and onward. For mid-careers, which are considerably more stable on average, complexity has decreased among women born between the 1930s and the early-1950s. However, the opposite trend holds true for men, resulting in gender convergence of complexity. We observe a standstill of the mid-career complexity trend across both genders, followed by a modest decline for the last observed cohorts. Subsequent analyses point to educational expansion as an important driver of the initial increase of early-career complexity. Taken together, our analysis affirms an initial shift to more career complexity in the 20thcentury, yet we find no unidirectional trend toward more career complexity over the last decades." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Westerman, Johan (2021): Should I Learn or Should I Turn? Implications of Job Mobility for Subsequent Learning at Work. In: European Sociological Review, Jg. 37, H. 6, S. 935-951. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcab018

Abstract

"Work learning is the skills and the knowledge that is generated from work practices and in exchange of information at work. While there are good reasons to fear that frequent job changers do not learn thoroughly at work, it is also conceivable that the experience of many types of jobs instead yields greater learning. Despite this issue’s significance for on-going discussions in research and policy, thorough analyses of it are surprisingly sparse. In this study, we test whether job mobility is positively or negatively associated with subsequent work learning using data from two Swedish representative datasets (LNU and PIAAC). In order to substantiate both claims, we utilize a wide array of research on human capital, job matching, labor market segmentation and learning motivation. We analyze a broad set of indicators of work learning and show that job mobility in general is associated with greater total subsequent learning than is job stability." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Witte, Nils, Reinhard Pollak & Andreas Ette (2021): Social Origins of German Emigrants: Maintaining Social Status Through International Mobility? In: M. Erlinghagen, A. Ette, N. F. Schneider & N. Witte (Hrsg.) (2021): ¬The¬ Global Lives of German Migrants, S. 139-153. DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-67498-4_8

Abstract

"The prospect of upward social mobility is a central motive for international migration. Curiously, the nexus of spatial and social mobility attracted attention only relatively late and existing research on intergenerational social mobility usually concentrates on the constellation within the nation state. This chapter expands on this literature by investigating the intergenerational social mobility of international German migrants from the perspective of the country of origin. First, we focus on the social origin of internationally mobile and non-mobile persons using data from the German Emigration and Remigration Panel Study (GERPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). How do the two groups differ in their social background? What kinds of capitals do international migrants inherit from their parents? In a second step, this chapter explores the differences in social fluidity between migrants and non-migrants. Does international mobility increase social fluidity? Our findings suggest that German emigrants are positively selected in terms of their social origin. Their parents are more likely to have academic degrees and to belong to the upper service classes compared with non-migrants. Although social fluidity is not significantly higher among emigrants compared with non-migrants, their risk of downward social mobility is significantly reduced." (Author's abstract, © Springer) ((en))

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Witte, Nils & Jean Guedes Auditor (2021): Affluent Lives Beyond the Border? Individual Wage Change Through Migration. In: M. Erlinghagen, A. Ette, N. F. Schneider & N. Witte (Hrsg.) (2021): ¬The¬ Global Lives of German Migrants, S. 121-138. DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-67498-4_7

Abstract

"This chapter investigates individual wage changes of German emigrants. The analytical strategy is twofold. First, we compare hourly wage changes among emigrants with wage changes among stayers. We estimate the Difference-in-Difference of mean net hourly wages between stayers and emigrants over time and account for the positive selection of emigrants on observable characteristics through entropy balancing. Second, we explore the heterogeneity of wage changes among emigrants. To that end, we calculate linear regressions on the log net hourly wage change through migration. The first analysis suggests substantial wage increases of 8 euros through migration. The second analysis provides evidence that characteristics of employment and of destination countries account for differences in the wage change among emigrants. Among individual characteristics, only age is negatively correlated, while education and gender do not account for differences. Our analysis rely on the first wave of the German Emigration and Remigration Panel Study. The German Socio-Economic Panel Study yields our reference population of stayers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer) ((en))