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Albinowski, Maciej & Piotr Lewandowski (2024): The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 87. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102481

Abstract

"We study the age- and gender-specific labour market effects of two key modern technologies, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and robots. Our sample includes 14 European countries between 2010 and 2018. We use the variation in technology adoption between industries and apply the instrumental variables strategy proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) to identify the causal effects of technology adoption. We find that exposure to ICT and robots increased the shares of young and prime-aged women in employment and in the wage bills of particular sectors. However, it reduced the shares of older women and prime-aged men. We do not detect significant effects of technology adoption on the relative wages of most demographic groups. Between 2010 and 2018, the growth in ICT capital played a larger role than robot adoption in the changes in the withinsector labor market outcomes of demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, ©2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Sabrina Genz, Terry Gregory, Florian Lehmer & Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage (2024): De-Routinization in the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Firm-Level Evidence. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16740), Bonn, 65 S.

Abstract

"This paper examines the extent to which aggregate-level de-routinization can be attributed to firm-level technology adoption during the most recent technological expansion. We use administrative data and a novel firm survey to distinguish frontier technologies from older technologies. We find that adopters of frontier technologies contribute substantially to deroutinization. However, this is driven only by a subset of these firms: large adopters replace routine jobs and less routine-intensive adopters experience faster growth. These scale and composition effects reflect firms' readiness to adopt and implement frontier technologies. Our results suggest that an acceleration of technology adoption would be associated with faster de-routinization and an increase in between-firm heterogeneity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barišić, Antea, Mahdi Ghodsi & Robert Stehrer (2024): Which Migrant Jobs are Linked with the Adoption of Novel Technologies, Robotization, and Digitalization? (WIIW working paper 241), Wien, 66 S.

Abstract

"In recent decades, the development of novel technologies has intenzified due to globalization, prompting countries to enhance competitiveness through innovation. These technologies have significantly improved global welfare, particularly in sectors like healthcare, where they have facilitated tasks and boosted productivity, for example playing a crucial role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, certain technologies, such as robots, can negatively impact employment by replacing workers and tasks. Additionally, the emergence of artificial intelligence as digital assets not only replaces specific tasks but also introduces complexities that may displace employees who are unable to adapt. While the existing literature extensively explores the heterogeneous effects of these technologies on labor markets, studies of their impact on migrant workers remain scarce. This paper presents pioneering evidence on the effects of various novel technologies on migrant employment in the European Union. The analysis covers 18 EU member states from 2005 to 2019 focusing on the impact of novel innovations, robot adoption, three types of digital assets, and total factor productivity, on migrant employment. The key findings reveal that innovations measured by the number of granted patents increase both the number and proportion of migrant workers relative to the overall workforce. While robots do replace jobs, their impact on native workers surpasses that of migrant workers, resulting in a higher share of migrant workers following robot adoption. Total factor productivity positively influences migrant workers, while the effects of digital assets are heterogeneous. Moreover, the impacts of these technologies on migrant workers vary significantly across different occupation types and educational levels." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Caselli, Mauro, Edwin Fourrier-Nicolai, Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano (2024): Digital Technologies and Firms' Employment and Training. (CESifo working paper 11056), München, 63 S.

Abstract

"This study examines the causal influence of digital technologies, specifically operational (ODT) and information digital technologies (IDT), on firms' employment structure using Italian firm-level data. It employs a unique empirical approach, constructing instrumental variables based on predetermined employment composition and global technological progress, proxied by patents. Findings indicate that IDT investment positively affects employment, favoring a skilled, IT-competent workforce, as supported by firms' training and recruitment plans. Conversely, ODT investment does not significantly alter total employment but skews the workforce towards temporary contracts. The study contributes methodologically by distinguishing between ODT and IDT and highlighting nuanced employment dynamics within firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damelang, Andreas & Michael Otto (2024): Who is Replaced by Robots? Robotization and the Risk of Unemployment for Different Types of Workers. In: Work and occupations, Jg. 51, H. 2, S. 181-206. DOI:10.1177/07308884231162953

Abstract

"We study the effects of robotization on unemployment risk for different types of workers. We examine the extent to which robotization increases inequality at the skill level and at the occupational level using two theoretical frameworks: skill-biased technological change and task-biased technological change. Empirically, we combine worker-level data with information on actual investments in industrial robots. Zooming in on the German manufacturing industry, our multivariate results show that robotization affects different types of workers differently. We do not observe an increase in unemployment risk for low- and medium-skilled, but we find a considerably lower unemployment risk among high-skilled workers. Moreover, the unemployment risk is significantly higher in occupations with highly substitutable tasks, but only in industries that invest largely in robots." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © SAGE) ((en))

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Gathmann, Christina, Christian Kagerl, Laura Pohlan & Duncan Roth (2024): The pandemic push: Digital technologies and workforce adjustments. In: Labour Economics, 2024-04-05. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102541

Abstract

"Using a novel firm survey matched to administrative employee records, we demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic was a push factor for the diffusion of digital technologies in Germany. Two out of three firms invested in digital technologies. Three quarters of those investing firms invested because of the pandemic, particularly in hardware and software to enable decentralized communication, management, and coordination. These investments also fostered additional firm-sponsored training, underscoring the complementarity between investments in digital technologies and training. We then show that the investments helped firms insure their workers against the economic downturn. Firms with additional digital investments retained more of their employees on regular working hours and relied less on short-time work. Low- and medium-skilled, as well as young workers, benefited the most from the insurance effect of digital investments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Lühr, Thomas & Tobias Kämpf (2024): KI und der Wandel von Angestelltenarbeit. Zum „blinden Fleck“ der aktuellenAutomatisierungsdebatte. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 77, H. 2, S. 98-106. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2024-2-98

Abstract

"Der Beitrag analysiert den Wandel von Angestelltenarbeit vor dem Hintergrund der digitalen Transformation. Ausgangspunkt ist ein Automatisierungsschub, der durch erweiterte Möglichkeiten der Nutzung Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) geprägt ist. Auf der Grundlage empirischer Befunde werden die qualitativen Veränderungstendenzen von Arbeit in den Blick genommen, und zwar sowohl aus der Anwenderperspektive der Sachbearbeiter*innen als auch aus der Sicht der hochqualifizierten Entwickler*innen und Implementoren neuer KI-Lösungen. Insgesamt wird ein Strukturwandel von Angestelltenarbeit konstatiert, der nicht nur das Risiko von Jobverlusten, sondern auch Potenziale für eine Aufwertung und Höherqualifizierung hervorbringt und sich im Angestelltenbewusstsein manifestiert. In arbeitspolitischer Perspektive eröffnen sich Anknüpfungspunkte für eine Vorwärtsstrategie im Sinne eines nachhaltigen Umbaus von Beschäftigung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Nurski, Laura & Nina Ruer (2024): Exposure to generative artificial intelligence in the European labour market. (Working paper / Bruegel 2024,06), Brüssel, 33 S.

Abstract

"We apply two sets of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) occupational exposure scores – one task-based, one ability-based – to the European Labour Force Survey. While using different methodologies, our findings reveal consistent demographic patterns across the two approaches: jobs held by women, highly educated and younger workers are more exposed to GenAI technology in Europe. We also review the literature on the recent productivity impact of GenAI. Within the same occupations, less-experienced or less-skilled workers consistently get the largest productivity gains from GenAI support. We argue that a task-based analysis is more fruitful than an ability-based one, both for guiding GenAI adoption in organisations and their workplaces, and for assessing the employment and job quality impact on workers. Finally, we provide policy recommendations that can help workers (ie the labor supply) adjust to technological disruption, such as providing training and social safety nets. But we go further by also suggesting policy interventions that could redirect future labor demand towards better jobs, by promoting job redesign and organisational agility. Monitoring GenAI’s employment effects and researching the ‘jagged technological frontier’ is necessary to further build our understanding of the employment impact of this transformational technology." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron, Hans R. A. Koster & Ceren Ozgen (2023): Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31009), Cambridge, Mass, 60 S.

Abstract

"We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms and negative outcomes on competitors in the same industry. Our worker-level results show that directly-affected workers (e.g., blue-collar workers performing routine or replaceable tasks) face lower earnings and employment rates, while other workers indirectly gain from robot adoption. We also find that the negative effects from competitors' robot adoption load on directly-affected workers, while other workers benefit from this industry-level robot adoption. Overall, our results highlight the uneven effects of automation on the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Simon Johnson (2023): Rebalancing AI. In: Finance and development, S. 26-29.

Abstract

"Optimistic forecasts regarding the growth implications of AI abound. AI adoption could boost productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points per year over a 10-year period and raise global GDP by 7 percent ($7 trillion in additional output), according to Goldman Sachs. Industry insiders offer even more excited estimates, including a supposed 10 percent chance of an “explosive growth” scenario, with global output rising more than 30 percent a year. All this techno-optimism draws on the “productivity bandwagon”: a deep-rooted belief that technological change— including automation—drives higher productivity, which raises net wages and generates shared prosperity. Such optimism is at odds with the historical record and seems particularly inappropriate for the current path of “just let AI happen,” which focuses primarily on automation (replacing people). We must recognize that there is no singular, inevitable path of development for new technology. And, assuming that the goal is to sustainably improve economic outcomes for more people, what policies would put AI development on the right path, with greater focus on enhancing what all workers can do?" (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Agrawal, Ajay K., Joshua S. Gans & Avi Goldfarb (2023): The Turing Transformation: Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence Augmentation, and Skill Premiums. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31767), Cambridge, Mass, 12 S.

Abstract

"We ask whether a technical objective of using human performance of tasks as a benchmark for AI performance will result in the negative outcomes highlighted in prior work in terms of jobs and inequality. Instead, we argue that task automation, especially when driven by AI advances, can enhance job prospects and potentially widen the scope for employment of many workers. The neglected mechanism we highlight is the potential for changes in the skill premium where AI automation of tasks exogenously improves the value of the skills of many workers, expands the pool of available workers to perform other tasks, and, in the process, increases labor income and potentially reduces inequality. We label this possibility the “Turing Transformation.” As such, we argue that AI researchers and policymakers should not focus on the technical aspects of AI applications and whether they are directed at automating human-performed tasks or not and, instead, focus on the outcomes of AI research. In so doing, our goal is not to diminish human-centric AI research as a laudable goal. Instead, we want to note that AI research that uses a human-task template with a goal to automate that task can often augment human performance of other tasks and whole jobs. The distributional effects of technology depend more on which workers have tasks that get automated than on the fact of automation per se." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bogusz, Honorata, Anna Matysiak & Michaela Kreyenfeld (2023): Structural Labour Market Change, Cognitive Work, and Fertility in Germany. (Working papers / Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw 2023-08), Warsaw, 44 S.

Abstract

"Technological change and globalisation have been transforming the structure of labour demand in favour of workers performing cognitive tasks. Even though past research has found that labour force participation is an important determinant of fertility behaviour, few studies have addressed the fertility effects of the long-term structural changes of labour market. To fill this gap, we measure the cognitive task content of work at the occupation level using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BiBB). We link this contextual information with employment and fertility histories of women and men from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2018 (GSOEP). With event history models, we find that fertility transitions of men working in occupations characterised by high cognitive task intensity are accelerated. We also observe elevated birth risks among women in occupations requiring cognitive labour. However, this pattern is more ambiguous, as we find that non-working women also experience elevated birth rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brynjolfsson, Erik & Gabriel Unger (2023): The macroeconomics of artificial intelligence. In: Finance and development, S. 20-25.

Abstract

"Economists have a poor track record of predicting the future. And Silicon Valley repeatedly cycles through hope and disappointment over the next big technology. So a healthy skepticism toward any pronouncements about how artificial intelligence will change the economy is justified. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to take seriously the growing potential of AI—systems that exhibit intelligent behavior, such as learning, reasoning, and problem-solving —to transform the economy, especially given the astonishing technica ladvances of the past year. AI may affect society in a number of areas besides the economy—including national security, politics, and culture. But in this article, we focus on the implications of AI on three broad areas of macroeconomic interest: productivity growth, the labor market, and industrial concentration. AI does not have a predetermined future. It can develop in very different directions. The particular future that emerges will be a consequence of many things, including technological and policy decisions made today. For each area, we present a fork in the road: two paths that lead to very different futures for AI and the economy. In each case, the bad future is the path of least resistance. Getting to the better future will require good policy—including • Creative policy experiments • A set of positive goals for what society wants from AI, not just negative outcomes to be avoided • Understanding that the technological possibilities of AI are deeply uncertain and rapidly evolving and that society must be flexible in evolving with them." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bughin, Jacques (2023): Does artificial intelligence kill employment growth: the missing link of corporate AI posture. In: Frontiers in artificial intelligence, Jg. 6. DOI:10.3389/frai.2023.1239466

Abstract

"Introduction An intense debate has been on-going about how artificial intelligence (AI) technology investments have an impact on employment. The debate has often focused on the potential of AI for human task automation, omitting the strategic incentive for firms to cooperate with their workers as to exploit AI technologies for the most relevant benefit of new product and service innovation. Method We calibrate an empirical probit regression model of how changes in employment relate to AI diffusion, based on formalizing a game-theoretical model of a firm exploiting the twin role of AI innovation and AI automation for both absolute and competitive advantage. Results The theoretical game-theory prediction is that employment following AI technology adoption is not negative, and ultimately depends on how AI leads to new success in innovation, competition which defines the competitive reward of innovation and profit sharing between workers and firms. Our estimation, is based on a global survey of 3,000 large companies across 10 countries, demonstrates that a firm employment growth depends on two strategic postures, that is, the firm relative maturity of AI adoption as well as its relative bias toward AI-based product innovation. Discussion The contribution of this research is to highlight the twin role of firm and workers in shaping how technology will affect employment. AI in particular marries the potential of task automation with even more potential for expansion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carbonero, Francesco, Enzo Weber & Christian J. Offermanns (2023): The Fall of the Labor Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Hiring Frictions. In: Review of Economic Dynamics, Jg. 49, S. 251-268., 2022-01-09. DOI:10.1016/j.red.2022.09.001

Abstract

"Die Veränderungen in der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung erhalten in der Forschung viel Aufmerksamkeit. Wir dokumentieren einen durchschnittlichen Rückgang des labour share (Anteil des Faktors Arbeit an der Einkommensverteilung) von 8 Prozentpunkten für acht europäische Länder und die USA zwischen 1980 und 2007. Wir untersuchen theoretisch und empirisch zwei Mechanismen: Substitution zwischen Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT) und Arbeit sowie Friktionen bei Beschäftigungsanpassungen. Wir finden, dass Substitution zwischen IKT und Arbeit wesentlich den Rückgang des labour share erklären kann. Wenn Arbeitsmarktfriktionen berücksichtigt werden, übernehmen diese allerdings einen Teil der Erklärungskraft. Insbesondere spielen Einstellungskosten in Europa eine größere Rolle als in den USA. Schließlich wird die Subsitutionselastizität zwischen IKT und Arbeit als Funktion institutioneller und struktureller Variablen modelliert und festgestellt, dass sie mit dem Anteil von Routine-Berufen positiv und mit dem Anteil hochqualifizierter Arbeiter negativ korreliert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Cardi, Olivier & Romain Restout (2023): Why Hours Worked Decline Less after Technology Shocks? (Economics working paper series / The Department of Economics, Lancaster University Management School 2023,07), Lancaster, 187 S.

Abstract

"The contractionary effect of aggregate technology shocks on hours worked has shrunk over time in OECD countries. Our estimates suggest that this finding can be attributed to the increasing share of the variance of technology improvements driven by asymmetric technology shocks across sectors. While technology improvements uniformly distributed across sectors are found empirically to give rise to a dramatic decline in total hours worked, asymmetric technology shocks do the opposite. By depreciating non-traded prices, symmetric technology shocks generate a contractionary effect on non-traded labor and thus on total hours. In contrast, by appreciating non-traded prices, technological change concentrated toward traded industries puts upward pressure on wages which has a strong expansionary effect on total hours worked. A two-sector open economy model with frictions into the movements of inputs can reproduce the time-increasing response of both total and sectoral hours worked we estimate empirically once we allow for factor-biased technological change and we let the share of asymmetric technology shocks increase over time. A model with endogenous technology decisions reveals that two-third of the progression of asymmetric technology shocks is driven by greater exposition of traded industries to the international stock of knowledge." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cetrulo, Armanda, Giovanni Dosi, Angelo Moro, Linnea Nelli & Maria Enrica Virgillito (2023): Automation, digitalization and decarbonization in the European automotive industry: a roadmap towards a just transition. (LEM working paper series / Laboratory of Economics and Management 2023,36), Pisa, 30 S.

Abstract

"This position paper outlines the characteristics of the trends at stake in affecting the twin transition in the European automotive industry, and the political economy of the actors behind such transition. We first describe the automation and digitalization processes in the automotive sector and their effects on employment. Possible scenarios are analysed, illustrating actual cases of electrification conversion of some European plants of the key OEMs companies as practical examples to understand the employment effects. We then consider the role of the regulatory push in fostering the transition of the automotive sector towards electrification, highlighting the non-neutrality of the process and the risk of a quite limited space for decarbonization. Finally, we discuss the space and capacity of trade unions' actions to orient the twin transition toward social and climate justice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damioli, Giacomo, Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli (2023): AI technologies and employment: micro evidence from the supply side. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 30, H. 6, S. 816-821. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2021.2024129

Abstract

"In this work we investigate the possible job-creation impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, focusing on the supply side, where the development of these technologies can be conceived as product innovations in upstream sectors. The empirical analysis is based on a worldwide longitudinal sample (obtained by merging the EPO PATSTAT and BvD-ORBIS databases) of more than 3,500 front-runner companies that patented AI-related inventions over the period 2000–2016. Based on system GMM estimates of dynamic panel models, our results show a positive and significant impact of AI patent families on employment, supporting the labour-friendly nature of AI product innovation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damioli, Giacomo, Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli (2023): The employment impact of AI technologies among AI innovators. (MSI discussion paper / KU Leuwen 2306),: KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven 36 S.

Abstract

"This study supports the labour-friendly nature of product innovation among developers of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. GMM-SYS estimates on a worldwide longitudinal dataset covering 3,500 companies that patented inventions related to AI technologies over the period 2000-2016 show a positive and significant impact of AI patent families on employment. The effect is small in magnitude and limited to service sectors and younger firms, which are front-runners of the AI revolution. We also detect some evidence of increasing returns suggesting that innovative companies more focused on AI technologies are those obtaining larger impacts in terms of job creation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Doorley, Karina, Jan Gromadzki, Piotr Lewandowski, Dora Tuda & Philippe Van Kerm (2023): Automation and Income Inequality in Europe. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16499), Bonn, 44 S.

Abstract

"We study the effects of robot penetration on household income inequality in 14 European countries between 2006–2018, a period marked by the rapid adoption of industrial robots. Automation reduced relative hourly wages and employment of more exposed demographic groups, similarly to the results for the United States. Using robot-driven wage and employment shocks as input to the EUROMOD microsimulation model, we find that automation had minor effects on income inequality. Household labour income diversification and tax and welfare policies largely absorbed labour market shocks caused by automation. Transfers played a key role in cushioning the transmission of these shocks to household incomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fregin, Marie-Christine & Michael Stops (2023): Wer mit KI-Technologien erfolgreich sein will, sollte die Wirkungen valide abschätzen können. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 76, H. 8, S. 12-15., 2023-08-16.

Abstract

"Marie-Christine Fregin, Universität Maastricht, und Michael Stops, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg, zeigen, dass die KI bisher insgesamt wenig quantitative Beschäftigungseffekte verursacht hat, da KI-Systeme in der deutschen Wirtschaft noch recht wenig verbreitet sind. Zudem müssten Beschäftigte bei der Einführung neuer Systeme oftmals neue Tätigkeiten ausführen und teilweise erlernen; andererseits sei erwartbar, dass bestimmte Tätigkeiten, die bisher den Beschäftigten vorbehalten waren, von der KI unterstützt und manchmal sogar übernommen werden könnten. Unternehmen sollten wissen, wie der Erfolg einer Technologieeinführung zu messen sei." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Genz, Sabrina & Claus Schnabel (2023): Digitalization is not gender-neutral. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 230. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111256

Abstract

"Using unique linked employer-employee data for Germany and a matching approach, we provide novel insights on the individual-level employment effects of digitalization. We show that the first-time introduction of digital technology in an establishment affects women more strongly than men. This holds both in terms of lower days employed and higher days unemployed. We find that employment losses are largest for individuals conducting non-routine tasks, and again it is women who suffer the most. Our insights imply that digitalization is not gender-neutral, suggesting that it is important to avoid a gender bias in technological progress." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Ghosh, Pallab & Zexuan Liu (2023): The puzzle of changes in employment and wages in routine task-intensive occupations. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 65, H. 4, S. 1965-1980. DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02394-x

Abstract

"Autor and Dorn (Am Econ Rev 103(5):1553–1597, 2013) provide an explanation of the polarization of US employment and wages for the period 1980–2005. Using the 1980 Census and 2005 American Community Survey data, this study replicates the estimation results of Autor and Dorn (2013) for employment polarization in all major occupation groups and qualitatively matches the wage polarization results. Also, we investigate the puzzle of why employment and wages changed in opposite directions only in clerical and administrative support occupations in 1980–2005." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Härtwig, Christian, Anna Sapronova & Nils-Levin Sigmund (2023): Wer profitiert von der Digitalisierung? Deutschlandweite Follow-up-Studie zu Entwicklungsverläufen und Unterschiedseffekten bei Beschäftigten verschiedener Industriebranchen und Tätigkeitsfelder. In: Zeitschrift für Arbeitswissenschaft, Jg. 77, H. 4, S. 578-592. DOI:10.1007/s41449-023-00386-2

Abstract

"Bei der Digitalisierung werden oft verschiedene Szenarien diskutiert wie eine mögliche Substitution, eine Polarisierung zwischen verschiedenen Qualifikationsniveaus oder ein allgemeines Upgrading von Arbeit; eine breite empirische Datenbasis fehlt jedoch zumeist. Mit dem „Monitor Digitalisierung “ liegt eine der größten deutschlandweiten Follow-up-Studien in verschiedenen Industriebranchen vor. In der Ersterhebung 2019 zeigte sich, dass die Digitalisierung noch am Anfang stand und geprägt war durch IKT. Bedeutsame Unterschiede lagen eher zwischen Blue- und White-Collar-Tätigkeitsfeldern als zwischen einzelnen Branchen. Bei der Zweitbefragung 2022 mit 11.316 Befragten aus 1559 Betrieben zeigte sich als allgemeiner Trend eine zunehmende IKT-Nutzung und digitale Unterstützung sowie stabil-positive Veränderungsbereitschaft und Digitale Selbstwirksamkeit, aber auch höhere Belastung, mäßige betriebliche Unterstützungsformen und zunehmende Kognitive Irritation. Digitalisierungsspezifische Unterschiede zwischen White- und Blue-Collar-Tätigkeitsfeldern verfestigten bzw. verstärkten sich: Meist profitierten von der Digitalisierung eher Beschäftigte aus IT, Leitung, Verwaltung oder Forschung und Entwicklung, während Beschäftigte aus Produktion, Technik, Logistik, Service und Labor ungünstigere Werte und Veränderungen berichteten. Für die Diskussion der Entwicklungsszenarien zeigte sich, dass allgemeine Substitutionsvermutungen derzeit eher zu verwerfen sind, die Entwicklungen vielmehr eher als zunehmende digitale Durchdringung und Diversifizierung angesehen werden kann. Praktische Relevanz : Es werden Disparitäten zwischen verschiedenen Beschäftigtengruppen aufgezeigt. Bei der Einführung digitaler Systeme sollten sowohl allgemein wirksame Effekte, als auch Belange spezifischer Tätigkeitsgruppen v. a. aus dem Blue-Collar-Bereich in den Blick genommen werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Jacob, Michael (2023): Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt. Gegenwart und Zukunft. Wiesbaden: Springer Gabler, 147 S.

Abstract

"Ziel dieses Buches ist es, Arbeitnehmern und Führungskräften Ängste vor Veränderungen in der Arbeitswelt, insbesondere durch die Digitalisierung, zu nehmen und Anregungen für eine bessere Gestaltung zu geben. Solche Bedenken fnden sich nicht zum ersten Mal in der Geschichte der Menschheit. Denn das Ende der Arbeitswelt wurde schon 1811 zu Beginn der Industrialisierung von Ned Ludd und seinen „Maschinenstürmern“ vorausgesagt. Sie nahmen an, dass neue technische Errungenschaften wie Webstühle und Baumwollspinnereien an dem Arbeitsverfall und der Lohnminderung schuld seien. Dies stellte sich als Trugschluss heraus, denn die Mechanisierung führte zu einer gesteigerten Produktivität und einem Wachstum des Wohlstands." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku, © Springer Gabler)

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Jurkat, Anne, Rainer Klump & Florian Schneider (2023): Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis. (EconStor Preprints 274156), Kiel, 72 S.

Abstract

"The empirical evidence on how industrial robots affect employment and wages is very mixed. Our meta-study helps to uncover the potentially true effect of industrial robots on labor market outcomes and to identify drivers of the heterogeneous empirical results. By means of a systematic literature research, we collected 53 papers containing 2143 estimations for the impact of robot adoption on wages. We observe only limited evidence for a publication bias in favor of negative results. The genuine overall effect of industrial robots on wages is close to zero and both statistically and economically insignificant. With regard to the drivers of heterogeneity, we find that more positive results are obtained if primary estimations a) include more countries in their sample, b) control for ICT capital, demographic developments, or tenure, c) focus on employees that remain employed in the same sector, d) consider only non-manufacturing industries, e) are specified in long differences, and f) come from a peer-reviewed journal article. More negative effects, in turn, are reported for primary estimations that are i) weighted, ii) aggregated at country level, iii) control for trade exposure, iv) and consider only manufacturing industries. We also find some evidence for skill-biased technological change. The magnitude of that effect is albeit small and less robust than one might expect in view of skill-biased technological change. We find little evidence for data dependence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Larsen, Christa & Gi Chun Chung (2023): Betriebe im Spagat zwischen Digitalisierungs- und Fachkräftesicherungsdruck. In: Zeitschrift für Arbeitswissenschaft, Jg. 77, H. 3, S. 440-452. DOI:10.1007/s41449-022-00330-w

Abstract

"Es wird prognostiziert, dass es zunehmend schwieriger sein wird, geeignetes Personal zu akquirieren. Die betrieblichen Entscheider

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Lorenz, Hanno, Fabian Stephany & Jan Kluge (2023): The future of employment revisited: how model selection affects digitization risks. In: Empirica, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 323-350. DOI:10.1007/s10663-023-09571-2

Abstract

"The uniqueness of human labour is at question in times of smart technologies. As computing power and data available increases, the discussion on technological unemployment reawakens. Prominently, Frey and Osborne (Technol Forecast Soc Change 114:254–280, 2017) estimated that half of US employment must be considered exposed to computerization within the next 20 years; followed by a series of papers expanding the research with information on heterogeneous job-specific tasks within the same jobs diminishing digitization potentials to only smaller fractions of workers at high risk. The main contribution of our work is to show that the diversity of previous findings regarding the degree of digitization is additionally driven by model selection. For our case study, we consult experts in machine learning and industry professionals on the susceptibility to digital technologies in the Austrian labour market. Our results indicate that, while clerical computer-based routine jobs are likely to change in the next decade, professional activities, such as the processing of complex information, are less prone to digital change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Monsef, Roschan & Oliver Stettes (2023): Die Dynamik der Personalbewegungen auf Unternehmensebene im digitalen und ökologischen Wandel - erste Schritte in eine Terra incognita. In: IW-Trends, Jg. 50, H. 2, S. 59-75. DOI:10.2373/1864-810X.23-02-04

Abstract

"Der Strukturwandel am Arbeitsmarkt geht traditionell mit der Umverteilung von Arbeitskräften von schrumpfenden zu wachsenden Branchen und Unternehmen einher. Dies führt zur Beendigung alter und zur Schaffung neuer Arbeitsverhältnisse. Die digitale und ökologische Transformation bildet hier keine Ausnahme. Offen ist derzeit aber noch, in welchem Umfang dies geschieht. Auswertungen auf Basis der Frühjahrswelle 2022 des IW-Personalpanels legen nahe, dass die Ausrichtung von Geschäftsmodellen und Arbeitsprozessen auf mehr Nachhaltigkeit und Klimaschutz zu einer höheren Dynamik der Personalbewegungen führen könnte. Die Fluktuationsrate ist in Unternehmen, die drei oder mehr wertschöpfungsrelevante Umweltschutzmaßnahmen umsetzen, 9 Prozentpunkte höher als in Unternehmen, die sich weniger engagieren. Auch die Personalaustauschrate, die sogenannte Churningrate, liegt 7 Prozentpunkte höher. Beides trifft allerdings nicht auf Unternehmen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe zu, in denen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen am stärksten vorangetrieben werden. Grundsätzlich wirken sich Klimaschutzmaßnahmen stärker auf die Personalbewegungen aus, wenn sie parallel zur digitalen Transformation erfolgen. Dies gilt insbesondere für Handels- und Logistikunternehmen. Die alleinige Einführung neuer digitaler Technologien und Prozesse geht allerdings nicht mit einer höheren Dynamik der Personalbewegungen einher – weder in einzelnen Branchenclustern noch in der gesamten Stichprobe." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Montobbio, Fabio, Jacopo Staccioli, Maria Enrica Virgillito & Marco Vivarelli (2023): The empirics of technology, employment and occupations: Lessons learned and challenges ahead. In: Journal of Economic Surveys online erschienen am 11.12.2023. DOI:10.1111/joes.12601

Abstract

"This paper is a critical review of the empirical literature resulting from recent years of debate and analysis regarding technology and employment and the future of work as threatened by technology, outlining both lessons learned and challenges ahead. We distinguish three waves of studies and relate their heterogeneous findings to the choice of technological proxies, the level of aggregation, the adopted research methodology and to the relative focus on robots, automation and AI. The challenges ahead include the need for awareness of possible ex‐ante biases associated with the adopted proxiesfor innovation; the recognition of the trade‐off between microeconometric precision and a more holistic macroeconomic approach; the need for granular analysis of the reallocation and transformation of occupations and tasks brought about by different types of new technologies; the call for a closer focus on impacts on labor quality, in terms of types of jobs and working conditions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Reljic, Jelena, Valeria Cirillo & Dario Guarascio (2023): Regimes of robotization in Europe. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 232. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111320

Abstract

"This work analyses the impact of robots on employment testing for the presence of different robotization regimes. Focusing on European manufacturing industries, we find that robot adoption positively affects total employment. Heterogeneous patterns are detected across both countries and occupational groups, however. The labor-friendly impact of robotization is detected only in core and service-oriented countries and for those at the top of the occupational structure (i.e. managers and technicians). In turn, peripheral countries and manual workers do not seem to benefit at all from robotization." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Seele, Stefanie & Oliver Stettes (2023): Wechseln von Digitalisierung betroffene Beschäftigte häufiger den Betrieb oder in Arbeitslosigkeit? In: IW-Trends, Jg. 50, H. 4, S. 3-21. DOI:10.2373/1864-810X.23-04-01

Abstract

"Die Sorge, ein steigender Technologieeinsatz im Berufsalltag könnte zu Arbeitsplatzverlusten führen, scheint bislang unbegründet. Eine Analyse von Mobilitätsprozessen sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigter in einer repräsentativen 2-Prozent-Stichprobe von Prozessdaten der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (SIAB) verdeutlicht für die Jahre 2012 bis 2021, dass stark von Digitalisierungstechnologien betroffene Berufssegmente eine deutlich höhere Beschäftigungsstabilität und messbar seltenere Arbeitslosigkeitszugänge zeigten. Dies gilt gleichermaßen für Beschäftigte in potenziell besonders leicht durch neue Technologien substituierbaren Berufen als auch für Beschäftigte in Digitalisierungsberufen mit besonders vielen komplementären Tätigkeiten und Kompetenzen zu den neuen Technologien. Vier von fünf Personen, die 2012 sozialversicherungspflichtig beschäftigt waren, blieben in den neun Folgejahren beim selben Arbeitgeber. Den Betrieb wechselten knapp 10 Prozent in einem Beruf mit hohem Substituierbarkeitspotenzial und fast 9 Prozent in einem ausgeprägten Digitalisierungsberuf. Gleichzeitig wurden Personen beider Berufssegmente seltener arbeitslos als ihre Vergleichsgruppen. Betriebsspezifisches Kapital könnte hierfür ursächlich sein. Beschäftigte mit hohem Substituierbarkeitspotenzial des Berufs könnten von Betriebsbeteiligungen an Investitionen in betriebsspezifisches Humankapital profitieren. Beschäftigte mit ausgeprägten Digitalisierungsberufen könnten durch betriebsspezifisches Organisationskapital gebunden sein." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Stabler, Jochen, Anne Otto, Gabriele Wydra-Somaggio, Michael Stops, Anna-Maria Kindt & Antje Weyh (2023): Kompetenz-Kompass Rheinland-Pfalz. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Rheinland-Pfalz-Saarland 02/2023), Nürnberg, 50 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RERPS.2302

Abstract

"Der strukturelle Wandel am Arbeitsmarkt führt zu veränderten Anforderungen, auf die sich alle Akteure einstellen müssen. Ein entscheidender Faktor dabei ist das Wissen um die Nachfrage nach Arbeitskräften. Wie sich diese Nachfrage generell und in einzelnen Berufshauptgruppen in Rheinland-Pfalz gestaltet, analysiert der vorliegende Bericht. Er basiert methodisch auf der „Machbarkeitsstudie Kompetenz-Kompass“, die Stellenanzeigen erstmalig systematisch auswertet. Zunächst wird anhand verschiedener Kriterien ermittelt, welche Berufshauptgruppen für die kurz- und langfristige vergangene und künftige Entwicklung der Beschäftigung von besonderer Bedeutung sind. Potenzielle Engpässe sowie eine besonders positive Beschäftigungsentwicklung, die auch eine künftige Nachfrage annehmen lässt, sollen dadurch abgebildet werden. Diese Berufshauptgruppen sind für Rheinland-Pfalz „Technische Forschungs-, Entwicklungs-, Konstruktions- und Produktionssteuerungsberufe“, „Bauplanung, Architektur- und Vermessungsberufe“, „Gebäude- und versorgungstechnische Berufe“, „Medizinischen Gesundheitsberufe“ sowie „Erziehung, soziale & hauswirtschaftliche Berufe, Theologie“. Für diese Berufshauptgruppen werden fachliche und überfachliche Kompetenzen ausgewertet, die jeweils am häufigsten in Stellenanzeigen genannt wurden. Insgesamt zeichnet sich eine stärkere Nachfrage nach fachlichen als nach überfachlichen Kompetenzen ab. Dieses Ergebnis verweist auf die Bedeutung von formaler Qualifikation und berufsspezifischen Anforderungen. Außerdem zeigen sich große Unterschiede zwischen den Berufshauptgruppen, beispielsweise bei der Anzahl an genannten Kompetenzen je ausgeschriebener Stelle. Darüber hinaus wurde aufgezeigt, dass mit steigendem Anforderungsniveau vermehrt überfachliche Kompetenzen nachgefragt werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Zhang, Lihua, Tian Gan & Jiachen Fan (2023): Do industrial robots affect the labour market? Evidence from China. In: Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, Jg. 31, H. 3, S. 787-817. DOI:10.1111/ecot.12356

Abstract

"The industrial robot is an essential part of modern manufacturing. Using micro-level data, this study investigates the effects of industrial robots on the labour market in China. The results show that the adoption of industrial robots increases firm-level employment by 31.65%. Using the Bartik method, we construct robot penetration as an instrumental variable of robot adoption to tackle endogenous problems. Our results stand up to a series of robustness checks. Moreover, the effects of robots are mainly owing to the expansion of the output scale, increased productivity, and upgraded products. We also find the skill-biased impact of robots and the spillover effect of industrial robots through production networks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (2023): Auswirkungen von künstlicher Intelligenz auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt und Sozialstaat. Antwort der Bundesregierung auf die Kleine Anfrage der Fraktion der CDU/CSU (Drucksache 20/6008). (Verhandlungen des Deutschen Bundestages. Drucksachen 20/63736 (12.04.2023)), 13 S.

Abstract

Die Fragen und Antworten betreffen die Herausforderungen, Chancen und Risiken beim Einsatz von Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) auf dem Arbeitsmarkt - Auswirkungen auf Lohnentwicklung, Produktivität und Erwerbsbeteiligung -, auf die soziale und wirtschaftliche Ungleichheit, auf den Arbeits- und Fachkräftemangel in Deutschland und im Bildungsbereich. Weitere Fragen gelten den Maßnahmen der Bundesregierung, einem möglichen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit durch künstliche Intelligenz entgegenzuwirken, den Auswirkungen auf die Rolle der Betriebsratsarbeit und die betriebliche Mitbestimmung, die Chancen für behinderte Menschen auf soziale und ökonomische Teilhabe, Hilfe bei Erkrankungen und die Beteiligung der Betroffenen bei Entscheidungen über Fördermaßnahmen. Gefragt wird nach dem Einsatz von KI in der öffentlichen Verwaltung, nach dem Projekt 'Observatorium Künstliche Intelligenz in Arbeit und Gesellschaft', der Bewertung der Bundesregierung des Gesetzgebungsverfahrens der EU zur KI-Verordnung, nach dem Datenschutz als möglichen Standortnachteil, nach dem Netzwerk 'Künstliche Intelligenz in der Arbeits- und Sozialverwaltung' und der Nutzung der KI im Bereich der Träger der sozialen Sicherungssysteme, bei der Bundesagentur für Arbeit, und einem möglichen Einsatz von KI zur Bekämpfung von Sozialleistungs- und Steuerbetrug. (IAB)

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World Economic Forum (2023): Future of Jobs Report 2023. Insight Report. (The future of jobs report), Cologny/Geneva, 295 S.

Abstract

"The Future of Jobs Report 2023 explores how jobs and skills will evolve over the next five years. This fourth edition of the series continues the analysis of employer expectations to provide new insights on how socio-economic and technology trends will shape the workplace of the future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This study is made of two parts: part A and part B. Part A of the study analyses - through 27 country fiches - the extent to which each EU Member State is prepared for ensuring a socially fair digital transformation in the coming years, based on both its current situation and future prospects. In this analysis, key areas of focus include the labor market, digital skills of the population, social protection as well as cross-cutting dimensions, such as the digitalization level of businesses and the quality of digital infrastructures. Part B of the study reviews - through 30 case studies - some of the main actual and potential uses of digital technologies (including AI) by a country’s public sector for improving the design and the delivery of social benefits and active labor market policies, as well as for complementing the monitoring of poverty and income inequality (the case studies analysed are mainly in Member States but also in a few third countries)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 40, H. S1, S. S293-S340. DOI:10.1086/718327

Abstract

"We study the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor markets using establishment-level data on the near universe of online vacancies in the United States from 2010 onward. There is rapid growth in AI-related vacancies over 2010–18 that is driven by establishments whose workers engage in tasks compatible with AI’s current capabilities. As these AI-exposed establishments adopt AI, they simultaneously reduce hiring in non-AI positions and change the skill requirements of remaining postings. While visible at the establishment level, the aggregate impacts of AI-labor substitution on employment and wage growth in more exposed occupations and industries is currently too small to be detectable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albinowski, Maciej & Piotr Lewandowski (2022): The Impact of ICT and Robots on Labour Market Outcomes of Demographic Groups in Europe. (IBS working paper / Instytut Badań Strukturalnych 2022,04), Warszawa, 52 S.

Abstract

"We study the age- and gender-specific labour market effects of two key modern technologies, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and robots, in 14 European countries between 2010 and 2018. To identify the causal effects of technology adoption, we utilise the variation in technology adoption between industries and apply the instrumental variables strategy proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020). We find that the adoption of ICT and robots increased the shares of young and prime-aged women in employment and the wage bills of particular sectors, but reduced the shares of older women and primeaged men. The negative effects were particularly pronounced for older women in cognitive occupations, who had relatively low ICT-related skills; and for young men in routine manual occupations, who experienced substitution by robots. Between 2010 and 2018, the growth in ICT capital played a much larger role than robot adoption in the changes in the labour market outcomes of demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Antón, José-Ignacio, David Klenert, Enrique Fernández-Macías, Maria Cesira Urzì Brancati & Georgios Alaveras (2022): The labour market impact of robotisation in Europe. In: European journal of industrial relations, Jg. 28, H. 3, S. 317-339. DOI:10.1177/09596801211070801

Abstract

"This paper explores the impact of robot adoption on European regional labour markets between 1995 and 2015. Specifically, we look at the effect of the usage of industrial robots on jobs and employment structures across European regions. Our estimates suggest that the effect of robots on employment tends to be mostly small and negative during the period 1995–2005 and positive during the period 2005–2015 for the majority of model specifications. Regarding the effects on employment structures, we find some evidence of a mildly polarising effect in the first period, but this finding depends to some extent on the model specifications. In sum, this paper shows that the impact of robots on European labour markets in the last couple of decades has been ambiguous and is not robust. The strength and even the sign of this effect are sensitive to the specifications, as well as to the countries and periods analysed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Boris Ivanov & Laura Pohlan (2022): Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss. (ZEW discussion paper 22-019), Mannheim, 55 S.

Abstract

"In vielen Ländern sind routine-intensive Berufe rückläufig, aber wie wirkt sich dies auf die individuelle Karriere aus, wenn der Rückgang dieser Berufe im lokalen Arbeitsmarkt besonders stark ausfällt? Diese Studie zeigt basierend auf administrativen Daten aus Deutschland und einem mit Matching kombinierten Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz, dass die individuellen Kosten eines Arbeitsplatzverlustes stark von der Tätigkeitsorientierung des regionalen Strukturwandels abhängen. Personen aus manuellen routine-intensiven Berufen haben nach einer Entlassung wesentlich höhere und lang anhaltende Beschäftigungs- und Lohnverluste in Regionen, in denen der Rückgang dieser Berufe am stärksten ausgeprägt ist. Regionale und berufliche Mobilität dienen teilweise als Anpassungsmechanismen, sie sind jedoch mit hohen Kosten verbunden, da diese Wechsel auch Verluste bei unternehmensspezifischen Lohnaufschlägen mit sich bringen. Beschäftigte, die nicht entlassen werden, bleiben hingegen weitgehend vom Strukturwandel verschont." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bachmann, Ronald, Myrielle Gonschor, Piotr Lewandowski & Karol Madoń (2022): The impact of robots on labour market transitions in Europe. (Ruhr economic papers 933), Essen, 53 S.

Abstract

"Dieses Papier untersucht die Auswirkungen von Robotern auf Arbeitsmarkttransitionen in 16 europäischen Ländern. Generell reduzieren Roboter Übergänge von der Beschäftigung in die Arbeitslosigkeit und erhöhen die Wahrscheinlichkeit, einen neuen Job zu finden. Arbeitskosten sind eine wichtige Erklärung für die beobachteten Unterschiede zwischen Ländern: In Ländern mit niedrigeren Arbeitskosten zeigt sich ein stärkerer Effekt auf Einstellungen und Trennungen. Diese Auswirkungen sind bei Arbeitskräften in Berufen mit manuellen oder kognitiven Routineaufgaben besonders ausgeprägt, bei Berufen mit nicht-routine kognitiven Aufgaben hingegen vernachlässigbar. Für junge und ältere Arbeitskräfte in Ländern mit niedrigeren Arbeitskosten wirken sich Roboter positiv auf Übergänge aus. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass die Einführung von Robotern in den meisten europäischen Ländern zu einem Anstieg der Beschäftigung und einem Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit geführt hat, vor allem durch einen Rückgang der Übergänge in die Arbeitslosigkeit." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Benmelech, Efraim & Michal Zator (2022): Robots and Firm Investment. (NBER working paper 29676), Cambridge, Mass, 51 S. DOI:10.3386/w29676

Abstract

"Automation technologies, and robots in particular, are thought to be massively displacing workers and transforming the future of work. We study firm investment in automation using cross-country data on robotization as well as administrative data from Germany with information on firm-level automation decisions. Our findings suggest that the impact of robots on firms has been limited. First, investment in robots is small and highly concentrated in a few industries, accounting for less than 0.30% of aggregate expenditures on equipment. Second, recent increases in robotization do not resemble the explosive growth observed for IT technologies in the past, and are driven mostly by catching-up of developing countries. Third, robot adoption by firms endogenously responds to labor scarcity, alleviating potential displacement of existing workers. Fourth, firms that invest in robots increase employment, while total employment effect in exposed industries and regions is negative, but modest in magnitude. We contrast robots with other digital technologies that are more widespread. Their importance in firms' investment is significantly higher, and their link with labor markets, while sharing some similarities with robots, appears markedly different." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carl, Birgit & Georg Sieglen (2022): Digitalisierung in der Arbeitswelt in Nordrhein-Westfalen - Aktualisierte Substituierbarkeitspotenziale. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nordrhein-Westfalen 01/2022), Nürnberg, 38 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RENRW.2201

Abstract

"Um die Auswirkungen des unter dem Schlagwort „Digitalisierung“ diskutierten technologischen Wandels auf den Arbeitsmarkt in Nordrhein-Westfalen einschätzen zu können, wird mit diesem Bericht eine weitere Aktualisierung der in den Jahren 2017 und 2018 (Sieglen/Buch/Dengler 2017; Sieglen 2018) vorgenommenen Analysen vorgelegt, da zwischenzeitlich wieder eine Reihe neuer Technologien marktreif geworden sind. Im Mittelpunkt standen und stehen dabei eine nach Berufsfeldern, Anforderungsniveaus und Regionen vergleichende Analyse von Anteilen von Beschäftigten in Berufen mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial. Diese Substituierbarkeitspotenziale zeigen auf, inwieweit Tätigkeiten, die bislang von Menschen ausgeführt werden, durch Computer und computergesteuerte Maschinen ersetzt werden können. Auf Basis dieser Neubewertung werden in diesem Bericht die Substituierbarkeitspotenziale für Nordrhein-Westfalen analysiert und mit den vorherigen Ergebnissen verglichen. Über fast alle Berufssegmente und Anforderungsniveaus hinweg ist das Substituierbarkeitspotenzial sowohl in Deutschland insgesamt, als auch in Nordrhein-Westfalen deutlich gestiegen. Das Wachstum fiel aber geringer aus als in den Vorjahren. Wie schon in den Jahren zuvor zeigen sich in den Berufssegmenten der Fertigungsberufe und fertigungstechnischen Berufe die höchsten Substituierbarkeitspotenziale. Stärkere Anstiege der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale zeigen sich vor allem in einzelnen Berufssegmenten der Dienstleistungsbranche und bezogen auf die Anforderungsniveaus bei den Fachkraftberufen. Frauen sind durchschnittlich in Berufen mit deutlich niedrigerem Substituierbarkeitspotenzial beschäftigt als Männer. Auch im Hinblick auf die Anteile von Beschäftigten in Berufen mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial von über 70 Prozent an allen Beschäftigten lässt sich insbesondere bei den Fachkräften ein deutlicher Anstieg beobachten. Mit 35,1 Prozent hat sich der Abstand dieses Anteilswertes in Nordrhein-Westfalen zum bundesdeutschen Durchschnitt (33,9 %) erhöht. Innerhalb von Nordrhein-Westfalen zeigen sich bei diesen Anteilen der Betroffenheit mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial deutliche regionale Disparitäten. Vor allem in der Region Südwestfalen gibt es überdurchschnittlich hohe Werte, während sie im Rheinland eher niedrig sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Ciarli, Tommaso, Florencia Jaccoud & Fabien Petit (2022): Heterogeneous Adjustments of Employment to Automation Technologies: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries in European Regions. In: EconPol Forum, Jg. 23, H. 5, S. 24-28.

Abstract

"Employment adjustments to automation vary across industries, regions, technologies, and time. Technological penetration of robots is related to higher employment within the industry in low-tech regions in the short run. Robots are negatively correlated to employment in knowledge-intensive regions. Regional heterogeneity in employment adjustment to robots is not driven by industry composition. High-tech industries adjust employment to ICT penetration faster than low-tech industries" (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cords, Dario & Klaus Prettner (2022): Technological unemployment revisited: automation in a search and matching framework. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 74, H. 1, S. 115-135. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpab022

Abstract

"Will automation raise unemployment and what is the role of education in this context? To answer these questions, we propose a search and matching model of the labour market with two skill types and with industrial robots. In line with evidence to date, robots are better substitutes for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled workers. We show that robot adoption leads to rising unemployment and falling wages of low-skilled workers and falling unemployment and rising wages of high-skilled workers. In a calibration to Austrian and German data, we find that robot adoption destroys fewer low-skilled jobs than the number of high-skilled jobs it creates. For Australia and the USA, the reverse holds true. Allowing for endogenous skill acquisition of workers implies positive employment effects of automation in all four countries. Thus, the firm creation mechanism in the search and matching model and skill acquisition are alleviating the adverse effects of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cresti, Lorenzo, Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo (2022): Technological interdependencies and employment changes in European industries. (LEM working paper series / Laboratory of Economics and Management 2022,5), Pisa, 36 S.

Abstract

"This work addresses the role of inter-sectoral innovation flows, which we frame as technological interdependencies, in determining sectoral employment dynamics. This purpose is achieved through the construction of an indicator capturing the amount of R&D expenditures embodied in the backward linkages of industries. We aim to find out whether having a more integrated production in terms of requiring more technological inputs is related to a lower demand for workers within the sector. We refer to the literature on innovation-employment nexus, inter-sectoral knowledge spillovers and Global Value Chains, building upon structuralist and evolutionary theoretical considerations. We track the flows of embodied technological change between industries taking advantage of the notion of vertically integrated sectors. The relevance of this vertical technological dimension for determining employment dynamics is then tested on a panel data of European industries over the 2008-2014 period. Results show a statistically significant and negative employment impact of the degree of vertical integration in terms of acquisitions of R&D embodied inputs. Combining the role of demand, the double nature of innovation - as product and as process -, together with intersectoral linkages, this work shows that the dependence of a sector from innovation performed by other ones - a proxy for input embodied process innovations - exert a negative effect upon employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Del Giudice, Manlio, Veronica Scuotto, Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Marco Pironti (2022): Humanoid robot adoption and labour productivity: a perspective on ambidextrous product innovation routines. In: The International Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 33, H. 6, S. 1098-1124. DOI:10.1080/09585192.2021.1897643

Abstract

"The increasing presence of humanoid robot adoption has generated a change in explorative and exploitative routines. If the explorative routines provoke creativity and critical thinking which are delivered by humans, exploitative routines induce repetitive actions and mimic activities which are executed by humanoids. This has raised the need for a better balance between both routines involving an ambidextrous dynamic process. Here, product innovations play a relevant role in enhancing such balance and labour productivity. If, from the conceptual standpoint, this phenomenon has already been explored, there is still the need to empirically analyse it. We thus offer a meso-analysis of twenty-four countries located in Europe through the lens of the Service Robot Deployment (SRD) Model and the conceptual lens of organizational ambidexterity. By a regression methodology, the results show that humanoid robot adoption is still not affecting labour productivity which, by contrast, is positively and significantly connected with both radically new and marginally modified/unchanged production of innovative routines. Our original contribution, which falls in the field of Human Resources Management and Artificial Intelligence, is that humanoids are not directly impacting labour productivity but indirectly through the generation of both new and marginally modified (or unchanged) routines. This situation persuades senior leaders to achieve a balance between exploitative and explorative product innovation routines." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dolado, Juan J., Etienne Lalé & Helene Turone (2022): Zero-hours Contracts in a Frictional Labour Market. (Discussion Paper / University of Bristol, Department of Economics 22/763), Bristol, 50 S.

Abstract

"We propose a model to evaluate the U.K.'s zero-hours contract (ZHC)- a contract that exempts employers from the requirement to provide any minimum working hours, and allows workers to decline any workload. We find quantitatively mixed welfare effects of ZHCs. On one hand they unlock job creation among firms that face highly volatile business conditions and increase labor force participation of individuals who prefer flexible work schedules. On the other hand, the use of ZHCs by less volatile firms, where jobs are otherwise viable under regular contracts, reduces welfare and likely explains negative employee reactions to this contract." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ernst, Ekkehard (2022): The AI trilemma: Saving the planet without ruining our jobs. In: Frontiers in artificial intelligence, Jg. 5. DOI:10.3389/frai.2022.886561

Abstract

"Digitalization and artificial intelligence increasingly affect the world of work. Rising risk of massive job losses have sparked technological fears. Limited income and productivity gains concentrated among a few tech companies are fueling inequalities. In addition, the increasing ecological footprint of digital technologies has become the focus of much discussion. This creates a trilemma of rising inequality, low productivity growth and high ecological costs brought by technological progress. How can this trilemma be resolved? Which digital applications should be promoted specifically? And what should policymakers do to address this trilemma? This contribution shows that policymakers should create suitable conditions to fully exploit the potential in the area of network applications (transport, information exchange, supply, provisioning) in order to reap maximum societal benefits that can be widely shared. This requires shifting incentives away from current uses toward those that can, at least partially, address the trilemma. The contribution analyses the scope and limits of current policy instruments in this regard and discusses alternative approaches that are more aligned with the properties of the emerging technological paradigm underlying the digital economy. In particular, it discusses the possibility of institutional innovations required to address the socio-economic challenges resulting from the technological innovations brought about by artificial intelligence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))