Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for inflation persistence (2010)
Christoffel, Kai; Linzert, Tobias;Zitatform
Christoffel, Kai & Tobias Linzert (2010): The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for inflation persistence. In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jg. 42, H. 7, S. 1435-1446. DOI:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00348.x
Abstract
"We analyze the transmission mechanism of wages to inflation within a New Keynesian business cycle model with wage rigidities and labor market frictions. Our main focus is on the channel of real wage rigidities on inflation persistence for which we find the specification of the wage bargaining process to be of crucial importance. Under the standard efficient Nash bargaining, the feedback of wage rigidities on inflation is ambiguous and depends on other labor market variables. However, under the alternative right-to-manage bargaining we find that more rigid wages translate directly into more persistent movements of aggregate inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor contract duration, indexation, and wage adjustment: interdependence and inflation propagation mechanisms (2010)
Christofides, Louis N.; Peng, Amy Chen; Chen Peng, Amy;Zitatform
Christofides, Louis N., Amy Chen Peng & Amy Chen Peng; Amy Chen Peng (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2010): Labor contract duration, indexation, and wage adjustment. Interdependence and inflation propagation mechanisms. In: Industrial relations, Jg. 49, H. 2, S. 226-247. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-232X.2009.00597.x
Abstract
"We study simultaneously the three main outcomes of collective bargaining negotiations, namely indexation, non-indexed wage adjustment, and contract duration. The wage adjustment equation accommodates varying degrees of wage indexation in the current and previous contracts. The elasticity of indexation, a latent variable, deals with both the incidence and intensity of wage indexation and links consistently with the wage equation. Duration, which may change between contracts, is shown to depend on indexed and non-indexed wage adjustment, obviating the need for expected inflation in the empirical duration equations of earlier work. Complex intra- and inter-contract inflation propagation mechanisms involve expected inflation and inflation uncertainty in an essential way. The model accounts for the secular doubling of contract duration and dramatic decrease in indexation and non-contingent wage adjustment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Capital investment and unemployment in Europe: neutrality or not? (2010)
Driver, Ciaran; Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair;Zitatform
Driver, Ciaran & Jair Muñoz-Bugarin (2010): Capital investment and unemployment in Europe. Neutrality or not? In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 32, H. 1, S. 492-496. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.03.003
Abstract
"Productivity variables are often said to have no effect on the NAIRU under wage bargaining as the labour share is unaffected when production is characterised by a unit elasticity of substitution. While production functions such as the CES can explain a negative relationship between investment and equilibrium unemployment, the implication then is that the labour share should increase with investment. In this paper we show that for a long sample in the UK, the labour share has decreased with capital investment. For a panel of European countries for which estimation is possible, the same result is obtained." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Employment, inflation and income distribution in an open economy: pricing-to-market in a modified NAIRU model (2010)
Ederer, Stefan;Zitatform
Ederer, Stefan (2010): Employment, inflation and income distribution in an open economy. Pricing-to-market in a modified NAIRU model. (WIFO working papers 360), Wien, 25 S.
Abstract
"The paper modifies a standard NAIRU model by implementing 'Pricing-to-market' as the basic assumption for the price setting behaviour of firms in an open economy. This entirely changes the outcomes of the model: First, inflation in equilibrium is stable at any rate of unemployment; the long-run Phillips curve is horizontal. Second, income distribution varies with the level of employment. Third, supplemented with a demand equation which allows for effects of both income distribution and international competitiveness, the NAIRU ceases to be a 'strong attractor'. These characteristics to a certain extent open up the space for expansive wage and demand policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Downward wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union (2010)
Fahr, Stephan; Smets, Frank;Zitatform
Fahr, Stephan & Frank Smets (2010): Downward wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union. In: The Scandinavian journal of economics, Jg. 112, H. 4, S. 812-840. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2010.01627.x
Abstract
"This paper analyses the implications of heterogeneity in the type of downward wage rigidity (nominal or real) for optimal monetary policy in a monetary union with asymmetric wage adjustment costs. Indexation in one region of the union reduces optimal grease inflation in the presence of common productivity shocks. Large common shocks may have sizeable and persistent effects on the intra-union terms of trade, whereby the region characterized by downward real wage rigidity adjusts with a persistent loss of competitiveness. In response to asymmetric productivity shocks, there is no role for grease inflation because relative price changes facilitating the real wage changes dominate the adjustment mechanism." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Nominal and real wage rigidities: in theory and in Europe (2010)
Knell, Markus;Zitatform
Knell, Markus (2010): Nominal and real wage rigidities. In theory and in Europe. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1180), Frankfurt am Main, 52 S.
Abstract
"In this paper I study the relation between real wage rigidity (RWR) and nominal price and wage rigidity. I show that in a standard DSGE model RWR is mainly affected by the interaction of the two nominal rigidities and not by other structural parameters. The degree of RWR is, however, considerably influenced by the modelling assumption about the structure of wage contracts (Calvo vs. Taylor) and about other institutional characteristics of wage-setting (clustering of contracts, heterogeneous contract length, indexation). I use survey evidence on price- and wage-setting for 15 European countries to calculate the degrees of RWR implied by the theoretical model. The average levels of RWR are broadly in line with empirical estimates based on macroeconomic data. In order to be able to also match the observed cross-country variation in RWR it is, however, essential to move beyond the country-specific durations of price and wages and to take more institutional details into account." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Real price and wage rigidities with matching frictions (2010)
Kuester, Keith;Zitatform
Kuester, Keith (2010): Real price and wage rigidities with matching frictions. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 57, H. 4, S. 466-477. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.04.001
Abstract
"Frictional unemployment means that workers, for some time, are a firm-specific factor of production. This paper models the resulting interaction of wage bargaining and price setting at the firm level in a New Keynesian model with labor market matching frictions. Real rigidities arise and the labor share ceases to be a good proxy for marginal costs. The model replicates the impulse responses of an SVAR for U.S. data better than alternatives in which the real rigidities arising at the firm level are absent. In addition, it implies reasonably low degrees of nominal rigidity whereas the alternatives do not. The interaction of wage and price setting at the firm level is important for the macroeconomic dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market: first results from the Euro experiment (2010)
Zitatform
Merkl, Christian & Tom Schmitz (2010): Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market. First results from the Euro experiment. (IZA discussion paper 4924), Bonn, 29 S.
Abstract
"This paper analyzes the effects of different labor market institutions on inflation and output volatility. The eurozone offers an unprecedented experiment for this exercise: since 1999, no national monetary policies have been implemented that could account for volatility differences across member states, but labor market characteristics have remained very diverse. We use a New Keynesian model with unemployment to predict the effects of different labor market institutions on macroeconomic volatilities. In our subsequent empirical estimations, we find that higher labor turnover costs have a statistically significant negative effect on output volatility, while replacement rates have a positive effect, both of which are in line with theory. Real wage rigidities do not seem to play much of a role. This result is in line with our employed labor market model, but stands in stark contrast to the search and matching model. While labor market institutions have a large effect on output volatility, they do not seem to have much of an effect on inflation volatility. Our estimations indicate that the latter is driven instead to a certain extent by differences in government spending volatility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The European unemployment gap and the role of monetary policy (2010)
Napolitano, Oreste; Montagnoli, Alberto;Zitatform
Napolitano, Oreste & Alberto Montagnoli (2010): The European unemployment gap and the role of monetary policy. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 30, H. 2, S. 1346-1358.
Abstract
"This study will shed some light on the debate on the impact of monetary policy on the labour market in Europe. The Phillips curve implies that demand-induced changes in inflation tend to lag behind movements in the unemployment rate, which means that a comparison between the actual unemployment rate and the NAIRU may be helpful in forecasting future changes in inflation. By using an unobserved component model with a Kalman filter we estimate the NAIRU for three countries in the euro area. Moreover, using a Markov switching model we investigate whether European monetary policy is responsible for these unemployment gaps and whether the interest rate is transmitted asymmetrically across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2010)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2010): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (FZID discussion papers 2010/22), Hohenheim, 35 S.
Abstract
"Focusing on the compression of wage cuts, many empirical studies find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). However, the resulting macroeconomic effects seem to be surprisingly weak. This contradiction can be explained within an intertemporal framework in which DNWR not only prevents nominal wage cuts but also induces firms to compress wage increases. We analyze whether a compression of wage increases occurs when DNWR is binding by applying Unconditional Quantile Regression and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to a data set comprising more than 169 million wage changes. We find evidence for a compression of wage increases and only very small effects of DNWR on average real wage growth. The results indicate that DNWR does not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2010)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2010): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (IZA discussion paper 5126), Bonn, 32 S.
Abstract
"Viele empirische Studien, die die Komprimierung von Lohnkürzungen betrachteten, finden einen hohen Grad an Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit (ANLS). Die resultierenden makroökonomischen Effekte scheinen jedoch überraschend gering zu sein. Dieser Widerspruch kann in einem intertemporalen Rahmen erklärt werden, in dem ANLS nicht nur Nominallohnkürzungen verhindert, sondern auch dazu führt, dass Firmen Lohnerhöhungen komprimieren. Wir analysieren mit Hilfe von Unconditional Quantile Regression und Seemingly Unrelated Regression, ob eine Komprimierung von Lohnerhöhungen stattfindet wenn ANLS vorliegt. Der hierfür genutzt Datensatz umfasst mehr als 169 Millionen Lohnänderungen. Wir finden Evidenz für eine Komprimierung von Lohnerhöhungen und nur sehr geringe Effekte von ALNS auf das durchschnittliche Reallohnwachstum. Die Ergebnisse deuten daraufhin, dass ANLS kein starkes Argument gegen die Zielsetzung niedriger Inflationsraten liefert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)