Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
A Theory of How Workers Keep up with Inflation (2026)
Zitatform
Afrouzi, Hassan, Andrés Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2026): A Theory of How Workers Keep up with Inflation. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Jg. 141, H. 2, S. 945-1004. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjag007
Abstract
"We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected increase in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower real wages—two facts observed during the recent inflation period. The calibrated model jointly matches aggregate and cross-sectional trends in worker flows and wages during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with increasing vacancies and upward shifts in the Beveridge curve. Our results suggest that policymakers and academics should be cautious about viewing the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment rate as a sign of a tight labor market during inflationary periods without holistically looking at other labor market indicators." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation (2026)
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Ahn, Hie Joo, HAN CHEN & MICHAEL KISTER (2026): A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Jg. 58, H. 3, S. 763-786. DOI:10.1111/jmcb.13217
Abstract
"We develop a new indicator of common wage inflation (CWI) by extracting and aggregating the common components from detailed industry-level nominal wage data. We show that the CWI is better aligned with the unemployment rate gap for the post-Great Recession period than are other indicators of wage inflation. The CWI indicates a tighter economy than popularly cited wage measures during the expansion after the Great Recession, and the industry-specific factors largely account for the subdued wage growth despite the continued tightening in the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (2026)
Ambrocio, Gene;Zitatform
Ambrocio, Gene (2026): Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 184. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105273
Abstract
"I document a link between population aging and average markups. I propose a mechanism whereby households develop deep habits in consumption as they age to explain this finding. When this mechanism is embedded in an overlapping generations New Keynesian model, the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve flattens as the population ages. Further, the contractionary effects of positive monetary policy surprises on output are amplified. Evidence from local projections exploiting the Trilemma in international macroeconomics confirm the model predictions. These results suggest that the challenges faced by monetary policy may become more pronounced as populations age." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The flattening of the Phillips Curve in the US was driven by good factors of concentration (2026)
Zitatform
Andrés, Javier, Óscar Arce & Pablo Burriel (2026): The flattening of the Phillips Curve in the US was driven by good factors of concentration. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 186. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105297
Abstract
"This paper investigates the relationship between the different drivers of market concentration and the flattening of the Phillips curve. First, we derive the impact of market shares polarization on the slope of the Phillips curve. Next we show that this effect is significantly different depending on the ultimate causes of such market concentration. We find that technology and competition-driven concentration exert a strong flattening effect on the Phillips curve, while changes in entry barriers instead increase the slope. Finally, we find that the pronounced flattening of the U.S. Phillips curve before 2000 would be coherent with the increase in good concentration, while the stability or moderate rise in the slope observed over the first decade of the 2000s could be explained by the increase in bad factors of concentration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Einkommenspolitik von Staat und Sozialpartnern in der Krise: Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen der Inflationskrise von 2022 und 2023 (2026)
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Barthel, Georg, Karen Jaehrling & Michel Breuer (2026): Einkommenspolitik von Staat und Sozialpartnern in der Krise. Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen der Inflationskrise von 2022 und 2023. (IAQ-Report 2026-01), Duisburg, 22 S. DOI:10.17185/duepublico/84801
Abstract
"Die in den letzten Jahren eingeleiteten Kurskorrekturen zur Aufwertung unterer Lohngruppen und Haushaltseinkommen wurden durch die Inflationskrise massiv auf die Probe gestellt. Die Kaufkraftverluste während der Inflationskrise wurden (Stand Ende 2025) annähernd ausgeglichen. Im Interesse des politischen Kompromisses entlastete die Bundesregierung untere Einkommensgruppen relativ, aber höhere Einkommensgruppen absolut am stärksten. Die Fortsetzung und teilweise Verstärkung der Aufwertung unterer Einkommensgruppen durch staatliche und tarifliche Lohnpolitik führte zu verstärkten Konflikten. Die Konflikte um Tarif-, Steuer- und Sozialpolitik, die in der Inflationskrise manifest oder verstärkt wurden, sind auch in aktuellen Debatten virulent." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments (2026)
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Coibion, Olivier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko (2026): The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 24, H. 1, S. 58–81. DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvaf050
Abstract
"We discuss how Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) can be used to study the causal effects of expectations on the decisions of households, firms and other economic agents. Specifically, information provision in RCTs can create exogenous variation in the beliefs of survey participants and thus can address a key identification challenge that has plagued research efforts focused on understanding the role of expectations in shaping economic decisions. When linked to either external information on their actions or subsequent survey waves that measure their ex-post decisions, RCTs can provide clear causal identification of the passthrough from expectations to decisions. We review recent evidence using this strategy and discuss potential challenges associated with this approach." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Persistent monetary policy in a model with involuntary unemployment (2026)
Zitatform
Goncharenko, Roman & Elizaveta Lukmanova (2026): Persistent monetary policy in a model with involuntary unemployment. In: Economic Inquiry, Jg. 64, H. 2, S. 614-640. DOI:10.1111/ecin.70033
Abstract
"In a basic New Keynesian DSGE model with involuntary unemployment, we study the role of labor markets in the transmission of persistent monetary policy shocks that increase households' inflation expectations. The model predicts that, in contrast to the standard nominal interest rate shocks, labor market conditions can affect the outcomes of persistent monetary policy shocks suggesting a trade-off between inflation and output growth: restricted labor market access leads to higher inflation response with smaller effects on output. Using a vector autoregression analysis, we further provide empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wage growth and labor market tightness (2026)
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Heise, Sebastian, Jeremy Pearce & Jacob P. Weber (2026): Wage growth and labor market tightness. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 158. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903
Abstract
"Good measures of labor market tightness are essential to predict wage inflation and to calibrate monetary policy. This paper highlights the importance of two measures of labor market tightness in determining wage growth: the quits rate and vacancies per effective searcher (V/ES)—where searchers include both employed and non-employed job seekers. Among a broad set of indicators of labor market tightness, we find that these two measures are independently the most strongly correlated with wage inflation both in aggregate time series data and in industry-level panel data, and also predict wage growth best out of sample. These results are consistent with the predictions of a New Keynesian DSGE model where firms have the power to set wages and workers search on the job. We develop a new composite indicator of labor market tightness that can be used by policymakers to predict wage pressures in real time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Towards a unified labour value theory of inflation (2026)
Zitatform
Hoca, Bülent (2026): Towards a unified labour value theory of inflation. In: Economy and Society, Jg. 55, H. 1, S. 71-96. DOI:10.1080/03085147.2025.2601465
Abstract
"Amid the resurgence of inflation, persistent austerity measures, and a lingering cost-of-living crisis, the primary aim of this paper is to theoretically exonerate labour from the blame for inflation, a tendency deeply embedded in the mainstream and one that continues to manifest, albeit potentially, within heterodox traditions. We show that achieving this aim requires an alternative Marxian theoretical framework based on the concept of labour value rather than the traditional concepts of cost, income, supply and demand. We identify sufficient textual evidence in Capital III to provide such a theory of price change. Our proposed theoretical framework unifies several factors of inflation, based on the tendency of capitalism to increase productivity and restrain price change, and explains the recent inflationary period by exploring long-term counteracting factors to this tendency." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
„Nach dem Schock ist vor dem Schock“: Was der Irankrieg für die deutsche Wirtschaft bedeutet (2026)
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Keitel, Christiane; Melanie Arntz & Enzo Weber (interviewte Person) (2026): „Nach dem Schock ist vor dem Schock“: Was der Irankrieg für die deutsche Wirtschaft bedeutet. In: IAB-Forum H. 12.05.2026, 2026-05-12. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260512.01
Abstract
"Der Iran-Krieg und die Blockade der Straße von Hormus erhöhen den Druck auf die internationalen Energiemärkte und treffen auch die deutsche Wirtschaft. Enzo Weber und Melanie Arntz vom IAB erläutern im Gespräch mit dem IAB-Forum die Folgen des Preisschocks und rücken vor allem die wachsende wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit und ihre Auswirkungen auf Investitionen in den Fokus. Sie diskutieren zudem die beschlossenen politischen Maßnahmen und betonen die Notwendigkeit klarer wirtschaftspolitischer Signale." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Inflationsdifferenzen zwischen den Bundesländern (2026)
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Kluth, Ricarda, Robert Lehmann & Marcel Thum (2026): Inflationsdifferenzen zwischen den Bundesländern. In: Ifo Dresden berichtet, Jg. 33, H. 01, S. 09-13.
Abstract
"Die Inflation entwickelt sich innerhalb Deutschlands seit 2020 recht unterschiedlich. Während die Preise in den ostdeutschen Flächenländern und Bremen stärker gestiegen sind als in Deutschland insgesamt, gilt genau das Gegenteil für Schleswig-Holstein und Hamburg. Stellt man der Preis- die nominale Stundenlohnentwicklung gegenüber, zeigen sich vor allem reale Gewinne in Ostdeutschland und reale Verluste für die westdeutschen Bundesländer. Falls diese Unterschiede persistent sind, könnte dies auf Dauer die relativen Lebensstandards zwischen den Bundesländern beeinflussen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Inflation versus unemployment: what is strongly associated with U.S. consumer confidence over time? (2026)
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Ogunyiola, Elizabeth Yemi, Olorunfemi Gabriel Ogunyiola & Ayorinde Ogunyiola (2026): Inflation versus unemployment: what is strongly associated with U.S. consumer confidence over time? In: Applied Economics Letters, S. 1-12. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2026.2618600
Abstract
"We examine whether inflation or unemployment is strongly associated with U.S. consumer confidence and how these associations vary across different macroeconomic regimes. Using monthly data from January 2000 to May 2025, we estimate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with regime-specific interactions, comparing headline inflation, core inflation, and inflation expectations with unemployment. The results show regime-dependent association patterns: core inflation became positively associated with confidence during the 2008–2009 financial crisis as falling prices coincided with weak sentiment, while unemployment exhibited relatively weak associations until becoming more pronounced during the post-pandemic adjustment of 2024–2025. In contrast, inflation expectations consistently showed strong negative associations with consumer confidence, particularly during the high-inflation period of 2022–2023. These findings indicate that the relative strength of the association between consumer confidence and key macroeconomic indicators varies across economic regimes, suggesting that policymakers should tailor communication and stabilization strategies to prevailing economic conditions while remaining attentive to changes in expectations and labour-market perceptions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Inflation, unemployment, and institutional trust: the global evidence (2026)
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Popova, Olga, Milena Nikolova, Sarah Grace See & Vladimir Otrachshenko (2026): Inflation, unemployment, and institutional trust: the global evidence. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 78, H. 1, S. 157-178. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpaf026
Abstract
"How do macroeconomic conditions shape people’s trust in political institutions? This paper addresses this question by analysing the association between inflation, unemployment, and political trust using repeated cross-sectional data from over 2 million individuals across 148 countries between 2006 and 2023. We find that high unemployment is strongly and consistently linked to lower confidence in national governments and reduced approval of national leaders. In contrast, the influence of inflation is substantially smaller—typically four to eight times weaker—and less robust across specifications. Perceptions of national economic performance, personal financial insecurity, and corruption appear to be key channels underlying these relationships. While inflation is linked to lower political trust mostly in upper-middle- and high-income countries, the negative association between unemployment and trust is widespread across all income levels. These findings suggest that unemployment remains a global and salient challenge that governments should prioritize." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves (2025)
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Ahn, Hie Joo & Jeremy B. Rudd (2025): (Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 153. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796
Abstract
"We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation (2025)
Zitatform
Almuzara, Martín, Richard Audoly & Davide Melcangi (2025): A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Jg. 40, H. 5, S. 508-520. DOI:10.1002/jae.3126
Abstract
"We extend time-series models that have so far been used to study price inflation and apply them to a microlevel data set containing worker-level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co-moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real-time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions (2025)
Angyridis, Constantine; Mansoorian, Arman; Michelis, Leo;Zitatform
Angyridis, Constantine, Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis (2025): On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678
Abstract
"This paper examines the costs associated with the level and variability of inflation in the context of a general equilibrium (GE) welfare measure which accounts for the optimal adjustments of all the endogenous variables in the model in response to the transfers received by the households. We compare and contrast the GE welfare costs with the conventional consumption equivalent (CE) measure across three utility functions that have been used routinely in the macroeconomics literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Robot adoption and inflation dynamics (2025)
Basso, Henrique S.; Rachedi, Omar;Zitatform
Basso, Henrique S. & Omar Rachedi (2025): Robot adoption and inflation dynamics. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 156. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103856
Abstract
"Leveraging variation in robot adoption across U.S. metropolitan areas, we document that automation reduces the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment. To rationalize this finding, we build a New Keynesian model with search frictions in the labor market where robot adoption flattens the Phillips curve. The key channel is the option value of automation: the threat of automating labor tasks alters effective workers’ bargaining power, muting the wage sensitivity to unemployment. We validate the relevance of this channel in the data by showing that robot adoption reduces the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment relatively more in highly unionized metropolitan areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Role of Labour Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission (2025)
Zitatform
Boeck, Maximilian & Christian Glocker (2025): The Role of Labour Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, S. 1-18. DOI:10.1111/obes.70029
Abstract
"We examine how labour market institutions shape monetary policy transmission in euro area countries. A theoretical model suggests that higher union density flattens the Phillips curve, amplifying output responses while dampening the inflation effects of monetary shocks. This is empirically confirmed using an interacted panel VAR. In contrast, benefit replacement rates and employment protection legislation have a limited impact. Our findings point to a structural, not cyclical, driver of monetary policy effectiveness, highlighting the importance of labour market features. In a monetary union, such heterogeneity can lead to inefficient inflation and output differentials across member states." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations (2025)
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Buchheim, Lukas, Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle (2025): The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations. In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 115, S. 261-265. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20251018
Abstract
"Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel survey data from German firms. By comparing forecast errors for firms' own wage inflation and consumer price index inflation, we show that wage forecasts tend to be more accurate, and forecast errors for the two variables are positively correlated. Moreover, the analysis reveals that various firm characteristics and wage-setting factors, particularly collective bargaining agreements, predict the forecast accuracy of wage inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments (2025)
Conrad, Christian A.;Zitatform
Conrad, Christian A. (2025): Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments. In: International journal of financial research, Jg. 16, H. 1, S. 20-34. DOI:10.5430/ijfr.v16n1p20
Abstract
"This paper examines the effects of inflation on both worker and employers wage bargaining on the labor market and the impact on distribution and economic development through two behavioral experiments. The findings of experiment A support the wage lag hypothesis, indicating that inflation alters the distribution, favoring companies while disadvantaging workers. Later workers then enforced higher wages, which overcompensated the expansionary effect, why expansive monetary policy which result in inflation is likely to be ineffective over the long term, detrimental and unfair. Experiment B explored how workers respond to inflation in wage demands and found that they do not act rationally. Instead, there were perception thresholds, showing that wage adjustments happen first disproportionally in reaction to inflation and then abrupt. This challenges the rationality assumption in DSGE-models." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach (2025)
Zitatform
Eusepi, Stefano & Ayşegül Şahin (2025): Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33878), Cambridge, Mass, 68 S.
Abstract
"The Federal Reserve's dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We propose a flow-based framework to evaluate real-time shortfalls from maximum employment, focusing on unemployment and participation cycles. This approach highlights that employment stability—driven by improved job-finding and reduced job-loss rates—is the primary factor behind procyclicality of participation, rather than labor force entry. Moreover, we show that cyclical recoveries in participation are bound to lag those in unemployment—even during fast recoveries. We link unemployment dynamics to price stability by estimating a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) using data on labor market flows, prices, wages, and inflation expectations. Our findings suggest that the natural rate of unemployment, u*, rose significantly following the pandemic, reflecting declines in job-filling rates, reduced matching efficiency, and a persistent increase in workers' real reservation wages. The model interprets the recent disinflation episode as a soft landing through rising expectations of a weaker labor market coinciding with the FOMC's tightening cycle. This observation emphasizes the forward-looking nature of inflation dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation (2025)
Zitatform
Faccini, Renato & Leonardo Melosi (2025): Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 107, H. 4, S. 1027-1041. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_01312
Abstract
"The low rate of inflation observed in the United States over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm-wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm-wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent drop is corroborated by survey data. During “the great resignation,” interfirm-wage competition rose, increasing inflation by around 1 percentage point in 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © MIT Press Journals) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy (2025)
Zitatform
Florio, Anna, Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago (2025): Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 174. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966
Abstract
"This paper studies how participation and position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect the slope of the Phillips Curve (PC) and, consequently, the ability of monetary policy to control inflation. Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and value added measures of GVCs, we show that, beyond the role of trade openness, higher participation leads to a flatter PC. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical literature emphasizing how globalization can reduce the sensitivity of prices to unemployment due to stronger strategic complementarities, to higher market power and to imperfect exchange rate pass-through. On the other hand, the role of GVC position is not statistically significant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Publishedby Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy (2025)
Zitatform
Gnocato, Nicolò (2025): Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 151. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734
Abstract
"Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euro-area Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in production and a non-homothetic consumption good. Unemployment forces workers to consume less due to imperfect insurance and, since preferences are non-homothetic, to allocate a larger consumption share to energy. The heterogeneous exposure of the labor force to rising energy prices induces an endogenous trade-off for monetary policy: the optimal response involves partly accommodating inflation to limit the increase in unemployment and, hence, prevent workers from becoming more exposed to the shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap (2025)
GouletCoulombe, Philippe;Zitatform
GouletCoulombe, Philippe (2025): A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap. In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Jg. 43, H. 3, S. 669-683. DOI:10.1080/07350015.2024.2421279
Abstract
"Many problems plague empirical Phillips curves (PCs). Among them is the hurdle that the two key components, inflation expectations and the output gap, are both unobserved. Traditional remedies include proxying for the absentees or extracting them via assumptions-heavy filtering procedures. I propose an alternative route: a Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) whose architecture yields a final layer where components can be interpreted as latent states within a Neural PC. First, HNN conducts the supervised estimation of nonlinearities that arise when translating a high-dimensional set of observed regressors into latent states. Second, forecasts are economically interpretable. Among other findings, the contribution of real activity to inflation appears understated in traditional PCs. In contrast, HNN captures the 2021 upswing in inflation and attributes it to a large positive output gap starting from late 2020. The unique path of HNN’s gap comes from dispensing with unemployment and GDP in favor of an amalgam of nonlinearly processed alternative tightness indicators." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? (2025)
Zitatform
Hack, Lukas & Davud Rostam-Afschar (2025): Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17935), Bonn, 60 S.
Abstract
"We examine how macroeconomic news affects firms' extensive-margin price-setting plans in a survey that we rolled out with randomized daily invitations. These plans predict future realized inflation. Using a high-frequency event study framework, we find that inflation and employment surprises imply significant and sizable revisions in firms' pricing plans. There is a limited role for news about the trade balance, but no significant role for other commonly studied data releases, e.g., industrial production. We also study news coverage and agents' news search behavior, finding that the intensive-margin response of media coverage and news search may partly drive our main results." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The active role of the natural rate of unemployment (2025)
Zitatform
Hall, Robert E. & Marianna Kudlyak (2025): The active role of the natural rate of unemployment. In: Research in Economics, Jg. 79, H. 4. DOI:10.1016/j.rie.2025.101092
Abstract
"We propose that the natural rate of unemployment may have an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to a widespread view that the rate is fairly smooth and at most only weakly cyclical. We demonstrate that the tendency to treat the natural rate as near-constant would explain the surprisingly low slope of the Phillips curve. We observe that evidence is weak about this basic point—the evidence neither comes close to rejecting the conventional view nor does it reject a very different view in which fluctuations in the natural rate are associated with a substantial fraction of cyclical volatility. We show that the natural rate may have closely tracked the actual rate during the long recovery that began in 2009 and ended in 2019. We explain how the common finding of research in the Phillips-curve framework of low — often extremely low — response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly close tracking of the natural rate and the actual rate in recoveries. Our interpretation of the data contrasts to that of many Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 University of Venice. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge (2025)
Zitatform
Hohberger, Stefan (2025): Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge. In: International economics and economic policy, Jg. 22. DOI:10.1007/s10368-024-00651-7
Abstract
"This paper estimates a three-region macroeconomic model to analyse the key drivers of Germany’s GDP, inflation, and wage growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation surge. Incorporating COVID-related demand and supply shocks, trade in commodities, and endogenous ELB periods, the results highlight that (i) the 2020–2021 downturn was primarily driven by domestic and global lockdown shocks, (ii) the 2021–2022 inflation surge resulted from rising commodity prices, recovering global demand, and supply-side pressures, and (iii) wage growth per hour was shaped by opposing demand and supply forces. The model’s estimated shocks closely align with external indicators, supporting its empirical plausibility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Anchored inflation expectations and the slope of the phillips curve (2025)
Jørgensen, Peter Lihn; Lansing, Kevin J.;Zitatform
Jørgensen, Peter Lihn & Kevin J. Lansing (2025): Anchored inflation expectations and the slope of the phillips curve. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 178. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105073
Abstract
"It is conventional wisdom that the reduced form Phillips curve has become flatter in recent decades. Accordingly, we show that the statistical relationship between changes in U.S. inflation and economic activity, commonly known as the accelerationist Phillips curve, has become flatter. But in contrast, the statistical relationship between the level of inflation and economic activity, which we refer to as the “original” Phillips curve, has become steeper. By allowing for changes in the degree of anchoring of agents’ inflation forecasts, we recover a stable structural slope parameter in an estimated version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) from 1960 to 2019. Using a New Keynesian model with imperfect information, we show that imperfectly anchored inflation expectations, coupled with an inflation-targeting central bank, induce an upward bias in the slope of the accelerationist Phillips curve slope but a downward bias in the slope of the original Phillips curve relative to the true structural slope of the NKPC. Improved anchoring shrinks both biases, accounting for the observed changes in the slopes of the reduced form Phillips curve relationships." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Theory Meets Textual Analysis: Measuring Firm-Level Labor Cost Pressures and Inflation Pass-Through (2025)
Zitatform
Kalyani, Aakash & Serdar Ozkan (2025): Theory Meets Textual Analysis: Measuring Firm-Level Labor Cost Pressures and Inflation Pass-Through. (Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2025-021), Saint Louis, MO, 39 S. DOI:10.20955/wp.2025.021
Abstract
"We develop a novel measure of firm-level marginal labor cost and investigate its pass-through to inflation. To construct this measure, we apply textual analysis to earnings calls to identify discussions of labor-related topics such as higher costs, shortages, and hiring. Leveraging the theoretical principle that cost-minimizing firms equate marginal costs across variable inputs, we project changes in firms intermediate input revenue shares onto the intensity of labor-related discussions to quantify their contributions to marginal labor costs. This approach provides an economically-motivated way to reduce the multidimensional qualitative textual information into a single quantitative measure. An aggregate index from this measure tracks closely with conventional aggregate slack variables and outperforms them in forecasting inflation. When aggregated at the industry level, we find a significant but heterogeneous pass-through of marginal labor costs to PPI inflation, with the pass-through highest for service sector and near-zero for manufacturing. Consistent with the latter fact, firm-level data reveal that investment in automation mitigates the effects of higher labor cost pressures in manufacturing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
State-Dependent Phillips Curve (2025)
Zitatform
Kim, Hyun Hak & Na Kyeong Lee (2025): State-Dependent Phillips Curve. In: Economies, Jg. 13, H. 1. DOI:10.3390/economies13010014
Abstract
"We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work strongly during recessionary periods but becomes weaker once an economy recovers. The latent factors that determine the regimes are highly correlated with the uncertainty measure. During recessionary periods, the uncertainty becomes negatively more certain and strengthens the relationship between inflation and labor market slack." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Einkommensverteilung und Inflation: Theorie und Empirie zu Deutschland (2025)
Zitatform
Sell, Friedrich L. & Jürgen Stiefl (2025): Einkommensverteilung und Inflation: Theorie und Empirie zu Deutschland. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 78, H. 12, S. 70-76.
Abstract
"Die von Christine Lagarde für den Euroraum herausgestellte prominente Rolle der Gewinnmargeninflation ab 2022 lässt sich für Deutschland in den Daten des BIPDeflators für den Zeitraum 1992 bis 2024 nicht finden. Von den drei angebotsseitigen Inflationstreibern – Gewinnmargeninflation, Lohndruckinflation und Abgabeninflation – dominiert der Einfluss der Gewerkschaften und ihrer Lohnpolitik auf die Verteilungsposition des Faktors Arbeit (Brutto- und Nettolohnquote). Dies ist durchaus überraschend vor dem Hintergrund, dass sich die deutschen Gewerkschaften (nach wie vor) im Kampf gegen sinkende Mitgliederzahlen befinden und ihr abnehmender Organisationsgrad dem in europäischen Nachbarstaaten durchaus ähneln dürfte" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data (2025)
Zitatform
Smith, Simon C., Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright (2025): Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 131-148. DOI:10.1002/jae.3102
Abstract
"We revisit the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with structural breaks to US and EU disaggregate data. Our approach lets us estimate both the number and timing of breaks and to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns. We find evidence of a flattening for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Evidence of flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and the wage Phillips curve. We find evidence of a kink in the Phillips curve, which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
IMK Inflationsmonitor: Inflation fällt im März 2025 auf 2,2 %, auch Kernrate sinkt weiter (2025)
Tober, Silke;Zitatform
Tober, Silke (2025): IMK Inflationsmonitor. Inflation fällt im März 2025 auf 2,2 %, auch Kernrate sinkt weiter. (IMK policy brief / Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 190), Düsseldorf, 12 S.
Abstract
"Mit 2,2 % lag die Inflationsrate in Deutschland im März 2025 sehr nah am Inflationsziel der EZB und etwas niedriger als im Vormonat (2,3 %). Dabei zogen die Preise für Nahrungsmittel, Alkohol und Tabakwaren verstärkt an (3,3 % nach 2,9 % im Februar 2025), während die Preise für Energie mit 2,8 % stärker zurückgingen als in den drei Monaten zuvor (jeweils 1,6 %) und die Kernrate sich um 0,1 Prozentpunkte auf 2,5 % verringerte. Auch der Anstieg des für die EZB besonders relevanten harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex (HVPI) schwächte sich ab, und zwar um 0,3 Prozentpunkte auf 2,3 %. Dabei war der Rückgang der Energiepreise mit 2,6 % etwas geringer als im VPI, während sich die Kernrate um 0,3 Prozentpunkte auf 2,8 % verringerte. Die Inflationsraten der neun hier betrachteten Haushaltstypen in verschiedenen Einkommensklassen lagen im März 2025 zwischen 1,7 % und 2,0 %. Die Spanne der haushaltsspezifischen Inflationsraten war damit auf einem niedrigen Niveau. Die Inflation dürfte sich im Jahresverlauf weiter normalisieren und sowohl in Deutschland als auch im Euroraum nahe 2 % liegen. Allerdings sind die Abwärtsrisiken für die Inflation durch den sich verschärfenden internationalen Zollkonflikt gestiegen. Die EZB muss auf die deutlich gestiegene Gefahr einer globalen Rezession und die erhöhten Risiken für die Finanzmarktstabilität reagieren. Bereits vor dem Zollkonflikt waren weitere Zinssenkungen erforderlich, weil die Geldpolitik trotz der anhaltenden Wirtschaftsschwäche noch restriktiv ausgerichtet ist. Nun ist eine geldpolitische Lockerung umso dringlicher, damit Geld- und Fiskalpolitik gemeinsam die Binnennachfrage stärken und ein günstiges Umfeld für Investitionen schaffen können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation (2024)
Zitatform
Afrouzi, Hassan, Andrés Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2024): A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33233), Cambridge, Mass, 58 S.
Abstract
"In this paper, we develop a model that combines elements of modern macro labor theories with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages. Calibrating with pre-2020 data, we show the model can simultaneously match the trends in worker flows and wage changes during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Finally, we show that other “hot labor market” theories that can cause an increase in the aggregate vacancy-to-unemployment rate have implications that are inconsistent with the worker flows and wage dynamics observed during the recent inflationary period. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States, all else equal, reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason why workers report they dislike inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics (2024)
Zitatform
Baldi, M. M., M. Guzowska & E. Michetti (2024): A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics. In: Decisions in economics and finance. DOI:10.1007/s10203-024-00491-9
Abstract
"The Goodwin model is a widely used economic growth model able to explain endogenous fluctuations in employment rate and wage share; in its initial version, the standard Phillips curve is used. In the present work, we suggest a revised Phillips curve that takes into account how the wage share influences the rate of changes of the wage itself thus obtaining a continuous-time modified Goodwin model. Since applying models to real data often requires working in a discrete-time setup, we then move from the continuous-time to the discrete-time version of the proposed model, by using a general polynomial discretization method in backward and forward-looking (hybrid discretization). By comparing the continuous-time system to its discrete-time counterpart we prove that fixed points and local dynamics do not change, as long as the time step is not too high. Moreover, numerical simulations employing Dynamic Time Warping, cross-correlation, and semblance analysis consistently affirm that enhancing the similarity of quantitative dynamics is achieved by reducing the time step." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Licht und Schatten der deutschen Konjunktur: IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2024 (2024)
Bardt, Hubertus ; Seele, Stefanie; Demary, Markus; Grömling, Michael; Obst, Thomas; Schaefer, Thilo; Pimpertz, Jochen; Hentze, Tobias; Schäfer, Holger; Henger, Ralph;Zitatform
Bardt, Hubertus, Markus Demary, Michael Grömling, Ralph Henger, Tobias Hentze, Thomas Obst, Jochen Pimpertz, Thilo Schaefer, Holger Schäfer & Stefanie Seele (2024): Licht und Schatten der deutschen Konjunktur: IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2024. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2024,68), Köln, 4 S.
Abstract
"Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 allenfalls das Vorjahresvolumen erreichen. Dabei gibt es moderate Zuwächse beim Konsum, da sich die Inflationsrate bei gut 2 Prozent normalisiert. Dem stehen starke Rückgänge bei den Investitionen gegenüber. Der Außenhandel leidet unter der schwachen Weltwirtschaft. Positive Wirtschaftsimpulse aus dem Dienstleistungssektor verhindern eine schwere Rezession in Deutschland, denn in der Industrie und der Bauwirtschaft sind deutliche Rückgänge zu sehen. Die Beschäftigung wird in diesem Jahr im Dienstleistungssektor ansteigen, zugleich nimmt aber auch die Arbeitslosigkeit auf 6 Prozent zu." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts (2024)
Zitatform
Barlevy, Gadi, R. Jason Faberman, Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin (2024): The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 38, H. 2, S. 83-106. DOI:10.1257/jep.38.2.83
Abstract
"We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Juni 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Juni 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 28.06.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240628.01
Abstract
"Im ersten Quartal 2024 wuchs die deutsche Wirtschaft preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,2 Prozent, nachdem sie im Schlussquartal 2023 um (revidiert) 0,5 Prozent geschrumpft war. Die Erholung dürfte sich auch im zweiten Quartal nur langsam fortsetzen. Die Inflation hält sich hartnäckig über der Zwei-Prozent-Marke, der Konsum entwickelt sich zurückhaltend und auch die Konjunkturaussichten hellen sich diesen Monat nicht weiter auf. Die Situation am Arbeitsmarkt ist unverändert: Die Beschäftigung steigt leicht, die Arbeitslosigkeit auch." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
IAB-Prognose 2024: Die Beschäftigung steigt, aber die Arbeitslosigkeit auch (2024)
Bauer, Anja ; Gartner, Hermann ; Wanger, Susanne ; Hellwagner, Timon ; Zika, Gerd ; Hummel, Markus; Hutter, Christian ; Weber, Enzo ;Zitatform
Bauer, Anja, Hermann Gartner, Timon Hellwagner, Markus Hummel, Christian Hutter, Susanne Wanger, Enzo Weber & Gerd Zika (2024): IAB-Prognose 2024: Die Beschäftigung steigt, aber die Arbeitslosigkeit auch. (IAB-Kurzbericht 06/2024), Nürnberg, 12 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2406
Abstract
"Das hohe Preis- und Zinsniveau sowie eine schwache Auslandsnachfrage haben die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gedämpft. Der Arbeitsmarkt wurde dadurch zwar beeinträchtigt, aber angesichts der schwachen Konjunktur hält er sich vergleichsweise gut. Der Kurzbericht gibt einen Ausblick auf die Entwicklung im Jahr 2024." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Gartner, Hermann ; Wanger, Susanne ; Hellwagner, Timon ; Zika, Gerd ; Hummel, Markus; Hutter, Christian ; Weber, Enzo ; -
Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Februar 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Februar 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 29.02.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240229.01
Abstract
"Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im vierten Quartal preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,3 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorquartal zurückgegangen. Die rückläufigen Investitionen und der angeschlagene Außenhandel bremsten die Konjunktur. Der Konsum konnte etwas zulegen und der Arbeitsmarkt zeigte sich weiterhin robust. Die Einschätzungen zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage bleiben am aktuellen Rand getrübt, während sich die Erwartungen an die Zukunft aufhellen. Die konjunkturelle Erholung dürfte sich daher weiter verzögern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Mai 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Mai 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 04.06.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240604.01
Abstract
"Im ersten Quartal 2024 wuchs die deutsche Wirtschaft preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,2 Prozent, nachdem sie im Schlussquartal 2023 um (revidiert) 0,5 Prozent sank. Das leichte Wachstum wurde im Wesentlichen durch die Investitionstätigkeit und den Außenhandel getragen. Der Konsum ging hingegen leicht zurück. Am Arbeitsmarkt ist die Situation unverändert: Die Arbeitslosigkeit stieg moderat und die Beschäftigung nahm tendenziell nur noch wenig zu. Da sich die Konjunkturaussichten seit Beginn des Jahres insgesamt aufgehellt haben, könnte die Wirtschaft im zweiten Quartal weiter Tritt fassen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - April 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - April 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 29.04.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240429.01
Abstract
"Die Anzeichen mehren sich, dass sich die Konjunktur langsam aufhellen könnte. Zwar ist die Investitionstätigkeit weiter gedämpft, der Konsum und die Auslandsnachfrage sind noch zurückhaltend. Aber die Industrieproduktion steigt zum zweiten Mal in Folge und auch das Geschäftsklima verbessert sich weiter. Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich nach wie vor robust." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Januar 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Januar 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 31.01.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240131.01
Abstract
"Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im Jahr 2023 preis- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,1 Prozent gefallen. Hauptgründe für den Rückgang waren die hohe Inflation, die gestiegenen Zinsen und die schwache Weltkonjunktur. Dies führte zu Konsumzurückhaltung, einem angeschlagenen Baugewerbe und einer rückläufigen Industrieproduktion. Gestützt wurde die Wirtschaft von den Investitionen und dem relativ robusten Arbeitsmarkt. Zum Auftakt des Jahres 2024 bleiben die Konjunkturaussichten weiterhin getrübt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - März 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - März 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 28.03.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240328.01
Abstract
"Die deutsche Wirtschaft steckt noch im Abschwung fest. Im Konsum und auch bei den Investitionen ist nur wenig Dynamik zu verzeichnen. Für das erste Quartal ist daher noch nicht mit dem Anziehen der Konjunktur zu rechnen. Immerhin hellt sich das Geschäftsklima am aktuellen Rand auf. Der Arbeitsmarkt zeigt sich weiterhin vergleichsweise robust." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Inflationsausgleichsprämie erhöht Einkommen von 26 Millionen Beschäftigten um 52 Milliarden Euro: Bestimmungsfaktoren und Auswirkungen der Sonderzahlungen (2024)
Zitatform
Behringer, Jan & Sebastian Dullien (2024): Inflationsausgleichsprämie erhöht Einkommen von 26 Millionen Beschäftigten um 52 Milliarden Euro. Bestimmungsfaktoren und Auswirkungen der Sonderzahlungen. (IMK policy brief / Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 171), Düsseldorf, 20 S.
Abstract
"Die Möglichkeit der Auszahlung einer steuer- und abgabenfreien Inflationsausgleichsprämie war eine wichtige, in der konzertierten Aktion 2022 vereinbarte Maßnahme zur Stabilisierung der Kaufkraft im Energiepreisschock nach der russischen Ukraine-Invasion. Anhand einer Online-Befragung wird in diesem Policy Brief abgeschätzt, welcher Anteil der abhängig Beschäftigten in Deutschland in den Jahren 2022 bis 2024 eine Inflationsausgleichsprämie erhalten hat. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die überwiegende Mehrheit der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten von einer solchen Prämie profitiert hat. Außerdem hatte die Prämie für viele Personen eine so relevante Größenordnung, dass sie dadurch eine spürbare finanzielle Entlastung wahrnahmen und deutlich seltener von Plänen zur Konsumeinschränkung berichteten als Personen ohne Inflationsausgleichsprämie. In der Summe wurden fast 26 Millionen Beschäftigten mehr als 52 Mrd. Euro ausgezahlt. Die Mindereinnahmen bei Steuern und Sozialabgaben werden dabei auf rund 40 Mrd. Euro geschätzt. Die Lohnstückkosten sind bis zu gut 1,5 Prozent niedriger ausgefallen, als es ohne diese Prämie der Fall gewesen wäre, wenn die gleiche Kaufkraft bei den Haushalten erreicht worden wäre." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Do Cost-of-Living Shocks Pass Through to Wages? (2024)
Zitatform
Bloesch, Justin, Seung Joo Lee & Jacob P. Weber (2024): Do Cost-of-Living Shocks Pass Through to Wages? (Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York 1126), New York, NY, 96 S. DOI:10.59576/sr.1126
Abstract
"We develop a novel, tractable New Keynesian model where firms post wages and workers search on the job, motivated by microeconomic evidence on wage setting. Because firms set wages to avoid costly turnover, the rate that workers quit their jobs features prominently in the model’s wage Phillips curve, matching U.S. empirical evidence. We then examine the response of wages to cost-of-living shocks, i.e., shocks that raise the price of household’s consumption goods but do not affect the marginal product of labor. Such shocks pass through to wages only to the extent that higher cost of living improves workers’ outside options, such as competing jobs or unemployment, relative to their current job. However, higher cost of living lowers real wages at all jobs evenly, and unemployment is rarely a credible outside option. We conclude that wage posting and on-the-job search limit the scope for pass-through from prices to wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market tightness and inflation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2024)
Bloesch, Justin;Zitatform
Bloesch, Justin (2024): Labor market tightness and inflation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. (Working paper / Peterson Institute for International Economics. 2024,23), Washington, DC, 33 S.
Abstract
"This paper reviews evidence on the role of the labor market in driving inflation and analyzes the US labor market, and its contribution to inflation, during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery. The author argues that the quits rate is a good measure of labor market tightness and is the best predictor of nominal wage growth. He further argues that wages largely pass through into prices, but other factors like sector-specific supply shocks are needed to explain the dynamics of price inflation. The COVID pandemic created large disruptions in the labor market, resulting in an increase in job openings and quits, high nominal wage growth, and temporary labor market mismatch. The shocks associated with COVID have subsequently faded, and nonlinearities in both the wage Phillips curve and Beveridge curve allowed for nominal wage growth to normalize without a large increase in unemployment. Lastly, the author argues that the relationship between wages and prices is mostly one-directional: Past price increases are not a major driver of wage gains. The period of high nominal wage growth in the recovery from COVID therefore reflected temporarily high labor demand as the economy quickly reopened, but not a classic wage-price spiral." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor at risk (2024)
Zitatform
Botelho, Vasco, Claudia Foroni & Andrea Renzetti (2024): Labor at risk. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 170. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104849
Abstract
"We propose a Bayesian VAR model with stochastic volatility and time varying skewness to estimate the degree of labor at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment rate as a function of real activity and financial risk factors. We find that the conditional distribution of the changes in the unemployment rate displays time-varying volatility and skewness, with peaks coinciding with the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, in both areas. We also take advantage of the multivariate nature of our parametric model to measure the joint risk of large increases in the unemployment rate together with large annual rates of inflation, a proxy for “stagflation ” risks. The model captures an increase of the risk of stagflation with the surge in inflation that followed the recent energy crisis in 2022. Nevertheless, stagflation risks were contained by the resilient performance of the labor market in both areas. Labor at risk is therefore important for the assessment of the inflation-unemployment trade-off." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2024: Konjunktur stottert in kraftlose Erholung (2024)
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Kooths, Stefan; Sonnenberg, Nils; Jannsen, Nils; Hoffmann, Timo; Schröder, Christian ; Groll, Dominik;Zitatform
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, Dominik Groll, Timo Hoffmann, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Christian Schröder & Nils Sonnenberg (2024): Deutsche Wirtschaft im Herbst 2024: Konjunktur stottert in kraftlose Erholung. (Kieler Konjunkturberichte 117), Kiel, 45 S.
Abstract
"Die deutsche Wirtschaft kommt nicht in die Gänge. Die vorsichtigen Erholungssignale, die vor einigen Monaten auszumachen waren, haben sich nicht verfestigt. Mittlerweile zeichnet sich ab, dass die Wirtschaftsleistung vorerst weiter stagnieren wird. Das Verarbeitende Gewerbe befindet sich in der Rezession und die privaten Haushalte halten sich trotz steigender Realeinkommen beim Konsum zurück. Die Investitionen leiden weiter unter der hohen Unsicherheit und den restriktiven Finanzierungsbedingungen. Ab dem kommenden Jahr dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt zwar wieder etwas steigen. So lässt die restriktive Wirkung der Geldpolitik allmählich nach. Die weiter steigenden Realeinkommen dürften zudem zu einer moderaten Belebung des privaten Konsums führen, und die wirtschaftliche Expansion in den Absatzmärkten wird das Exportgeschäft voraussichtlich etwas stimulieren. In Anbetracht des derzeit geringen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktionsniveaus bleibt die Erholung aber kraftlos. Insgesamt haben wir unsere Prognose nach unten angepasst. Für das laufende Jahr rechnen wir nun mit einem Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 0,1 Prozent (Sommerprognose: +0,2 Prozent), im kommenden Jahr dürfte es um 0,5 Prozent zulegen (1,1 Prozent). Im Jahr 2026 wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt wohl um 1,1 Prozent steigen, auch gestützt von der höheren Zahl an Arbeitstagen, die 0,3 Prozentpunkte zum Zuwachs beitragen werden. Die Inflation ist weiter zurückgegangen und wird in den kommenden beiden Jahren wohl bei 2 Prozent liegen. Die Arbeitslosigkeit dürfte angesichts der schwachen Konjunktur von 5,7 Prozent im Jahr 2023 auf 6,1 Prozent im Jahr 2025 steigen. In den kommenden Jahren werden zunehmend die Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels sichtbar werden und voraussichtlich zu einem Rückgang der Erwerbstätigkeit im Jahr 2026 führen. Das Budgetdefizit dürfte vor allem aufgrund der wegfallenden Preisbremsen von 2,6 Prozent in Relation zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt im Jahr 2023 auf 1,7 Prozent im Jahr 2025 zurückgehen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)