Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
How costly is CPI inflation targeting: a two sector model with no labor mobility (2011)
Onmus-Baykal, Elif;Zitatform
Onmus-Baykal, Elif (2011): How costly is CPI inflation targeting. A two sector model with no labor mobility. In: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Jg. 11, H. 1, S. 1-30. DOI:10.2202/1935-1690.1950
Abstract
"This paper studies the welfare costs of price rigidities in a closed economy without labor mobility. First, in a one-sector model, I find a significant welfare cost of price rigidities under a standard Taylor rule, especially when labor is immobile. In the one-sector model, strict CPI inflation targeting is able to eliminate the welfare cost of price rigidities, with or without labor mobility. Then, I develop a vertically integrated two-sector model with nominal and real rigidities where there is a natural distinction between the rates of inflation in the final and intermediate goods sectors. In the two-sector model, the real rigidities are introduced by assuming that labor is immobile across sectors and firms. In the model, labor immobility plays an allocative role and causes large fluctuations in hours of work. This, in turn, magnifies the welfare costs of nominal rigidities. I find that the welfare costs range from 1.62 percent to 2.33 percent of consumption per period for different degree of price rigidities under an estimated Taylor rule over the Volcker and Greenspan years. Taking the household welfare under optimal (Ramsey) monetary policy as a benchmark, I show that an optimal modified Taylor rule with two measures of inflation is able to bring welfare closer to the benchmark value and reduces the welfare costs substantially, even if labor mobility is restricted." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Matching labor's share in a search and matching model (2011)
Reicher, Christopher Phillip;Zitatform
Reicher, Christopher Phillip (2011): Matching labor's share in a search and matching model. (Kieler Arbeitspapier 1733), Kiel, 35 S.
Abstract
"In the United States, labor's share of income falls after a positive disturbance to productivity growth or inflation, and it remains low for some time. Previous researchers have argued that the negative relationship between productivity growth and labor's share is puzzling. I argue otherwise. A search and matching model with infrequently bargained nominal wages would predict the observed behavior of labor's share after a productivity disturbance, and it also predicts the observed behavior of labor's share after an inflationary disturbance. Wages at the macroeconomic level seem to be sticky in a way which is consistent with microeconomic evidence; much of the ongoing discussion about the real effects of sticky wages seems to be well-motivated, while sticky price models fail to match the data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Geldpolitik und Beschäftigung: Ist niedrige Inflation Gift für den Arbeitsmarkt? (2011)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beißinger (2011): Geldpolitik und Beschäftigung: Ist niedrige Inflation Gift für den Arbeitsmarkt? (IAB-Kurzbericht 02/2011), Nürnberg, 8 S.
Abstract
"Seit beinahe zwei Jahrzehnten gelingt es den Zentralbanken der westlichen Industrieländer, die Inflationsraten auf niedrigen Niveaus zu stabilisieren. Obwohl Preisstabilität als ein zentrales wirtschaftspolitisches Ziel gilt, werden darin auch Gefahren gesehen: Einige Wissenschaftler warnen davor, dass nach unten starre Nominallöhne in Verbindung mit einer niedrigen Inflation zu höherer Arbeitslosigkeit führen könnten. Neueste Forschungsergebnisse für Deutschland zeigen allerdings, dass von der sogenannten Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit kein nennenswerter negativer Einfluss auf die Arbeitslosenquote zu erwarten ist." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
- Verteilung der Lohnänderungen mit und ohne Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit nach bisherigen Studien
- Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit in ausgewählten EU-Mitgliedsländern
- Verteilung der Lohnänderungen mit Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit (ANLS) nach neuesten Schätzungen
- Empirische Verteilung der Lohnänderungen in Deutschland von 2006 auf 2007
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Literaturhinweis
Elusive persistence: wage and price rigidities, the new Keynesian Phillips curve and inflation dynamics (2011)
Tsoukis, Christopher; Pearlman, Joseph; Kapetanios, George;Zitatform
Tsoukis, Christopher, George Kapetanios & Joseph Pearlman (2011): Elusive persistence. Wage and price rigidities, the new Keynesian Phillips curve and inflation dynamics. In: Journal of Economic Surveys, Jg. 25, H. 4, S. 737-768. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00622.x
Abstract
"We review the main New Keynesian inflation equations that have arisen as a result of aggregation from individual firms' price rigidities. We find that, on the whole, they cannot account for inflation persistence, a key feature of the empirical dynamics of inflation, and with important policy implications. The only exceptions seem to be when indexation is allowed in price setting or when price stickiness is combined with wage rigidity and staggering." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The magic triangle of macroeconomics: how do European countries score? (2011)
Welsch, Heinz;Zitatform
Welsch, Heinz (2011): The magic triangle of macroeconomics. How do European countries score? In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 63, H. 1, S. 71-93. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpq020
Abstract
"This paper studies the macroeconomic performance of the EU-12 member countries over 1990-2002 from the point of view of the subjective well-being (life satisfaction) of the citizens. The paper uses data for over 50,000 individuals and controls for personal characteristics (especially income and employment status). Life satisfaction is found to be negatively associated with the unemployment rate and inflation, but positively associated with the growth rate. In contrast to earlier findings, the weights placed on inflation and unemployment are of a similar magnitude. The life satisfaction regression is used to determine the weights to be attached to growth, employment, and price stability in a macroeconomic performance index. It is found that the overall macroeconomic performance ranking of the countries is robust across alternative specifications of the index." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market institutions and the business cycle: Unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities (2010)
Abbritti, Mirko; Weber, Sebastian;Zitatform
Abbritti, Mirko & Sebastian Weber (2010): Labor market institutions and the business cycle: Unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1183), Frankfurt am Main, 46 S.
Abstract
"This paper investigates the importance of labor market institutions for inflation and unemployment dynamics. Using the New Keynesian framework we argue that labor market institutions should be divided into those institutions that cause Unemployment Rigidities (UR) and those that cause Real Wage Rigidities (RWR). The two types of institutions have opposite effects and their interaction is crucial for the dynamics of inflation and unemployment. We estimate a panel VAR with deterministically varying coefficients and find that there is a profound difference in the responses of unemployment and inflation to shocks under different constellations of the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The effects of age and job protection on the welfare costs of inflation and unemployment (2010)
Becchetti, Leonardo; Castriota, Stefano; Giuntella, Giovanni Osea;Zitatform
Becchetti, Leonardo, Stefano Castriota & Giovanni Osea Giuntella (2010): The effects of age and job protection on the welfare costs of inflation and unemployment. In: European journal of political economy, Jg. 26, H. 1, S. 137-146. DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2009.08.001
Abstract
"We extend the happiness literature on the welfare costs of inflation and unemployment by looking at age and job market characteristics. Our findings show that the relative welfare cost of unemployment versus inflation is higher than one, and much higher in intermediate age cohorts and in low job protection countries. The potential role of our findings in explaining the heterogeneous behaviour of CBs under different job market settings is discussed and compared with alternative explanations based on other institutional or structural differences in economies and in their reactions to shocks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Downward wage rigidity in Europe: a new flexible parametric approach and empirical results (2010)
Zitatform
Behr, Andreas & Ulrich Pötter (2010): Downward wage rigidity in Europe. A new flexible parametric approach and empirical results. In: German economic review, Jg. 11, H. 2, S. 169-187. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0475.2009.00470.x
Abstract
"We suggest a new parametric approach to estimate the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in ten European countries between 1995 and 2001. The database used throughout is the User Data Base of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The proposed approach is based on the generalized hyperbolic distribution, which allows to model wage change distributions characterized by thick tales, skewness and leptokurtosis. Significant downward nominal wage rigidity is found in all countries under analysis, but the extent varies considerably across countries. Yearly estimates reveal increasing rigidity in Italy, Greece and Portugal, while rigidity is declining in Denmark and Belgium. The results imply that the costs of price stability differ substantially across Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Ursachen, Ausmaß und Implikationen von Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit (2010)
Zitatform
Beissinger, Thomas & Heiko Stüber (2010): Ursachen, Ausmaß und Implikationen von Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit. In: U. Blien, W. Flieger & R. Schmitt (Hrsg.) (2010): Ökonomie, Technologie und Region : Voraussetzungen, Formen und Folgen des Strukturwandels. Festschrift für Prof. Dr. Hans-Dieter Feser, S. 259-299.
Abstract
"Die Autoren beschäftigen sich in ihrem Beitrag mit dem Phänomen der Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit, welches bisher vom Strukturwandel weitgehend unberührt geblieben ist. Aufgrund dessen findet sich hierin eine Konstante, die bei Diskussionen um die Folgen des Strukturwandels zu berücksichtigen ist, denn Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit verursacht eine erhöhte Arbeitslosigkeit in niedergehenden Branchen. Der Beitrag gibt einen umfassenden Überblick über die Debatte um Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit und Inflation. Es wird zunächst erläutert, wie aus theoretischer Sicht eine zu niedrige Inflation in Verbindung mit nach unten starren Nominallöhnen die gleichgewichtige Arbeitslosigkeit erhöhen kann. Es wird auf mögliche Begründungen, die Existenz und das Ausmaß, sowie die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen und wirtschaftspolitischen Implikationen eingegangen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities (2010)
Benigno, Pierpaolo; Ricci, Luca Antonio;Zitatform
Benigno, Pierpaolo & Luca Antonio Ricci (2010): The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities. (NBER working paper 15762), Cambridge, Mass., 40 S. DOI:10.3386/w15762
Abstract
"In the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities, wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices, when facing both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We derive a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve which relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outward and reduces output. The results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across countries with different macroeconomic volatility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for inflation persistence (2010)
Christoffel, Kai; Linzert, Tobias;Zitatform
Christoffel, Kai & Tobias Linzert (2010): The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for inflation persistence. In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jg. 42, H. 7, S. 1435-1446. DOI:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00348.x
Abstract
"We analyze the transmission mechanism of wages to inflation within a New Keynesian business cycle model with wage rigidities and labor market frictions. Our main focus is on the channel of real wage rigidities on inflation persistence for which we find the specification of the wage bargaining process to be of crucial importance. Under the standard efficient Nash bargaining, the feedback of wage rigidities on inflation is ambiguous and depends on other labor market variables. However, under the alternative right-to-manage bargaining we find that more rigid wages translate directly into more persistent movements of aggregate inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor contract duration, indexation, and wage adjustment: interdependence and inflation propagation mechanisms (2010)
Christofides, Louis N.; Peng, Amy Chen; Chen Peng, Amy;Zitatform
Christofides, Louis N., Amy Chen Peng & Amy Chen Peng; Amy Chen Peng (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2010): Labor contract duration, indexation, and wage adjustment. Interdependence and inflation propagation mechanisms. In: Industrial relations, Jg. 49, H. 2, S. 226-247. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-232X.2009.00597.x
Abstract
"We study simultaneously the three main outcomes of collective bargaining negotiations, namely indexation, non-indexed wage adjustment, and contract duration. The wage adjustment equation accommodates varying degrees of wage indexation in the current and previous contracts. The elasticity of indexation, a latent variable, deals with both the incidence and intensity of wage indexation and links consistently with the wage equation. Duration, which may change between contracts, is shown to depend on indexed and non-indexed wage adjustment, obviating the need for expected inflation in the empirical duration equations of earlier work. Complex intra- and inter-contract inflation propagation mechanisms involve expected inflation and inflation uncertainty in an essential way. The model accounts for the secular doubling of contract duration and dramatic decrease in indexation and non-contingent wage adjustment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Capital investment and unemployment in Europe: neutrality or not? (2010)
Driver, Ciaran; Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair;Zitatform
Driver, Ciaran & Jair Muñoz-Bugarin (2010): Capital investment and unemployment in Europe. Neutrality or not? In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 32, H. 1, S. 492-496. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.03.003
Abstract
"Productivity variables are often said to have no effect on the NAIRU under wage bargaining as the labour share is unaffected when production is characterised by a unit elasticity of substitution. While production functions such as the CES can explain a negative relationship between investment and equilibrium unemployment, the implication then is that the labour share should increase with investment. In this paper we show that for a long sample in the UK, the labour share has decreased with capital investment. For a panel of European countries for which estimation is possible, the same result is obtained." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Employment, inflation and income distribution in an open economy: pricing-to-market in a modified NAIRU model (2010)
Ederer, Stefan;Zitatform
Ederer, Stefan (2010): Employment, inflation and income distribution in an open economy. Pricing-to-market in a modified NAIRU model. (WIFO working papers 360), Wien, 25 S.
Abstract
"The paper modifies a standard NAIRU model by implementing 'Pricing-to-market' as the basic assumption for the price setting behaviour of firms in an open economy. This entirely changes the outcomes of the model: First, inflation in equilibrium is stable at any rate of unemployment; the long-run Phillips curve is horizontal. Second, income distribution varies with the level of employment. Third, supplemented with a demand equation which allows for effects of both income distribution and international competitiveness, the NAIRU ceases to be a 'strong attractor'. These characteristics to a certain extent open up the space for expansive wage and demand policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Downward wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union (2010)
Fahr, Stephan; Smets, Frank;Zitatform
Fahr, Stephan & Frank Smets (2010): Downward wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union. In: The Scandinavian journal of economics, Jg. 112, H. 4, S. 812-840. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2010.01627.x
Abstract
"This paper analyses the implications of heterogeneity in the type of downward wage rigidity (nominal or real) for optimal monetary policy in a monetary union with asymmetric wage adjustment costs. Indexation in one region of the union reduces optimal grease inflation in the presence of common productivity shocks. Large common shocks may have sizeable and persistent effects on the intra-union terms of trade, whereby the region characterized by downward real wage rigidity adjusts with a persistent loss of competitiveness. In response to asymmetric productivity shocks, there is no role for grease inflation because relative price changes facilitating the real wage changes dominate the adjustment mechanism." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Nominal and real wage rigidities: in theory and in Europe (2010)
Knell, Markus;Zitatform
Knell, Markus (2010): Nominal and real wage rigidities. In theory and in Europe. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1180), Frankfurt am Main, 52 S.
Abstract
"In this paper I study the relation between real wage rigidity (RWR) and nominal price and wage rigidity. I show that in a standard DSGE model RWR is mainly affected by the interaction of the two nominal rigidities and not by other structural parameters. The degree of RWR is, however, considerably influenced by the modelling assumption about the structure of wage contracts (Calvo vs. Taylor) and about other institutional characteristics of wage-setting (clustering of contracts, heterogeneous contract length, indexation). I use survey evidence on price- and wage-setting for 15 European countries to calculate the degrees of RWR implied by the theoretical model. The average levels of RWR are broadly in line with empirical estimates based on macroeconomic data. In order to be able to also match the observed cross-country variation in RWR it is, however, essential to move beyond the country-specific durations of price and wages and to take more institutional details into account." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Real price and wage rigidities with matching frictions (2010)
Kuester, Keith;Zitatform
Kuester, Keith (2010): Real price and wage rigidities with matching frictions. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 57, H. 4, S. 466-477. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.04.001
Abstract
"Frictional unemployment means that workers, for some time, are a firm-specific factor of production. This paper models the resulting interaction of wage bargaining and price setting at the firm level in a New Keynesian model with labor market matching frictions. Real rigidities arise and the labor share ceases to be a good proxy for marginal costs. The model replicates the impulse responses of an SVAR for U.S. data better than alternatives in which the real rigidities arising at the firm level are absent. In addition, it implies reasonably low degrees of nominal rigidity whereas the alternatives do not. The interaction of wage and price setting at the firm level is important for the macroeconomic dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market: first results from the Euro experiment (2010)
Zitatform
Merkl, Christian & Tom Schmitz (2010): Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market. First results from the Euro experiment. (IZA discussion paper 4924), Bonn, 29 S.
Abstract
"This paper analyzes the effects of different labor market institutions on inflation and output volatility. The eurozone offers an unprecedented experiment for this exercise: since 1999, no national monetary policies have been implemented that could account for volatility differences across member states, but labor market characteristics have remained very diverse. We use a New Keynesian model with unemployment to predict the effects of different labor market institutions on macroeconomic volatilities. In our subsequent empirical estimations, we find that higher labor turnover costs have a statistically significant negative effect on output volatility, while replacement rates have a positive effect, both of which are in line with theory. Real wage rigidities do not seem to play much of a role. This result is in line with our employed labor market model, but stands in stark contrast to the search and matching model. While labor market institutions have a large effect on output volatility, they do not seem to have much of an effect on inflation volatility. Our estimations indicate that the latter is driven instead to a certain extent by differences in government spending volatility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The European unemployment gap and the role of monetary policy (2010)
Napolitano, Oreste; Montagnoli, Alberto;Zitatform
Napolitano, Oreste & Alberto Montagnoli (2010): The European unemployment gap and the role of monetary policy. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 30, H. 2, S. 1346-1358.
Abstract
"This study will shed some light on the debate on the impact of monetary policy on the labour market in Europe. The Phillips curve implies that demand-induced changes in inflation tend to lag behind movements in the unemployment rate, which means that a comparison between the actual unemployment rate and the NAIRU may be helpful in forecasting future changes in inflation. By using an unobserved component model with a Kalman filter we estimate the NAIRU for three countries in the euro area. Moreover, using a Markov switching model we investigate whether European monetary policy is responsible for these unemployment gaps and whether the interest rate is transmitted asymmetrically across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2010)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2010): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (IZA discussion paper 5126), Bonn, 32 S.
Abstract
"Viele empirische Studien, die die Komprimierung von Lohnkürzungen betrachteten, finden einen hohen Grad an Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit (ANLS). Die resultierenden makroökonomischen Effekte scheinen jedoch überraschend gering zu sein. Dieser Widerspruch kann in einem intertemporalen Rahmen erklärt werden, in dem ANLS nicht nur Nominallohnkürzungen verhindert, sondern auch dazu führt, dass Firmen Lohnerhöhungen komprimieren. Wir analysieren mit Hilfe von Unconditional Quantile Regression und Seemingly Unrelated Regression, ob eine Komprimierung von Lohnerhöhungen stattfindet wenn ANLS vorliegt. Der hierfür genutzt Datensatz umfasst mehr als 169 Millionen Lohnänderungen. Wir finden Evidenz für eine Komprimierung von Lohnerhöhungen und nur sehr geringe Effekte von ALNS auf das durchschnittliche Reallohnwachstum. Die Ergebnisse deuten daraufhin, dass ANLS kein starkes Argument gegen die Zielsetzung niedriger Inflationsraten liefert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)