Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
Labour market reforms in the Euro area: a DSGE approach (2015)
Presidente, Giorgio;Zitatform
Presidente, Giorgio (2015): Labour market reforms in the Euro area. A DSGE approach. (ILO research paper 12), Genf, 24 S.
Abstract
"Empirical work on the impacts of labour market institutions has produced mixed results. Much of this literature is based on reduced form regressions that are subject to severe econometric and measurement issues. This paper develops a framework to study the impact of labour market institutions in the context of a DSGE model. The advantage of using a DSGE model is that one can observe the general equilibrium outcomes of truly exogenous shifts in labour market policy. In addition, this class of models are flexible, can be easily estimated and one can undertake policy simulations and counterfactual exercises. After inspecting the short and long run response of key variables to several labour market reforms, an application to the Euro area reveals that between 1970 and 2003, changes in labour market institutions had only a limited impact on the volatility of output, inflation and unemployment. These results stand in contrast to theories attributing to excessive regulation for the rise and persistence of European unemployment. In addition, they suggest that labour market frictions are at most of marginal interest for central banks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment (2015)
Rusticelli, Elena; Turner, David; Cavalleri, Maria Chiara;Zitatform
Rusticelli, Elena, David Turner & Maria Chiara Cavalleri (2015): Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment. (OECD Economics Department working papers 1231), Paris, 35 S. DOI:10.1787/5js1gmq551wd-en
Abstract
"Inflation has become much less sensitive to movements in unemployment in recent decades. A common explanation for this change is that inflation expectations have become better anchored as a consequence of credible inflation targeting by central banks. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the paper compares two competing empirical specifications across all OECD economies, where competing specifications correspond to the 'former' and 'new' specification for deriving measures of the unemployment gap which underlie the OECD's Economic Outlook projections. The former OECD specification can be characterised as a traditional 'backward-looking' Phillips curve, where current inflation is partly explained by an autoregressive distributed lag process of past inflation representing both inertia and inflation expectations formed on the basis of recent inflation outcomes. Conversely, the new approach adjusts this specification to incorporate the notion that inflation expectations are anchored around the central bank's inflation objective. The main finding of the paper is that the latter approach systematically out-performs the former for an overwhelming majority of OECD countries over a recent sample period. Relative to the backward-looking specification, the anchored expectations approach also tends to imply larger unemployment gaps for those countries for which actual unemployment has increased the most. Moreover, the anchored expectations Phillips curve reduces real-time revisions to the unemployment gap, although these still remain uncomfortably large, in the case of countries where there have been large changes in unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The happiness trade-off between unemployment and inflation (2014)
Zitatform
Blanchflower, David G., David N. F. Bell, Alberto Montagnoli & Mirko Moro (2014): The happiness trade-off between unemployment and inflation. In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jg. 46, H. S2, S. 117-141. DOI:10.1111/jmcb.12154
Abstract
"Unemployment and inflation lower well-being. The macroeconomist Arthur Okun characterized the negative effects of unemployment and inflation by the misery index - the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. This paper makes use of a large European data set, covering the period 1975 - 2013, to estimate happiness equations in which an individual subjective measure of life satisfaction is regressed against unemployment and inflation rate (controlling for personal characteristics, country, and year fixed effects). We find, conventionally, that both higher unemployment and higher inflation lower well-being. We also discover that unemployment depresses well-being more than inflation. We characterize this well-being trade-off between unemployment and inflation using what we describe as the misery ratio. Our estimates with European data imply that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers well-being by more than five times as much as a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market institutions and the response of inflation to macro shocks in the EU: a two-sector analysis (2013)
Zitatform
D'Adamo, Gaetano & Riccardo Rovelli (2013): Labor market institutions and the response of inflation to macro shocks in the EU. A two-sector analysis. (IZA discussion paper 7616), Bonn, 23 S.
Abstract
"We model empirically the role of labor market institutions in affecting the response of inflation to labor market and exchange rate shocks in the EU. We adopt a simple Phillips curve framework, treating separately the sectors producing traded and non-traded goods. Our results show that labor market institutions have a significant role in affecting cross-country differences in inflation adjustment for the 'sheltered' (non-trading) sector; the effects in the 'exposed' (trading) sector are also significant but more limited. Increased wage coordination and more expenditure on LM policies (active or total) flatten the Phillips curve in both sectors. More active LM policies also reduce the persistence of inflation. However, but only in the non-trading sector, this effect is more than offset (in 15 countries out of 21) by the presence of stronger wage coordination, which increases the persistence of inflation. Finally, the adjustment of inflation to the real exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through, is largely unaffected by institutional variables; only for non-tradables there is a strong negative effect of increased union density." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Political support in hard times: do people care about national welfare? (2013)
Friedrichsen, Jana; Zahn, Philipp;Zitatform
Friedrichsen, Jana & Philipp Zahn (2013): Political support in hard times. Do people care about national welfare? (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. Discussion papers SP 2 2013-212), Berlin, 39 S.
Abstract
"During the Great Recession mass demonstrations indicated weakened political support in Europe. We show that growing dissatisfaction often reflects poor economic conditions and unemployment is particularly important. Using individual level data for 16 Western European countries for 1976 - 2010, we find that national economic performance matters even beyond personal economic outcomes. Finally, while the effects of growth and unemployment rates are the same across demographic subsets, the effect of inflation is heterogeneous. Well-educated or working individuals put a relatively higher weight on price stability than the less skilled or not working. Our findings reinforce the political importance of employment and growth policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Nominal and real wage rigidities: in theory and in Europe (2013)
Knell, Markus;Zitatform
Knell, Markus (2013): Nominal and real wage rigidities. In theory and in Europe. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 36, H. June, S. 89-105. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.01.006
Abstract
"In this paper I study the relation between real wage rigidity (RWR) and nominal price and wage rigidity. I show that in a standard DSGE model RWR is mainly affected by the interaction of the two nominal rigidities and not by other structural parameters. The degree of RWR is, however, considerably influenced by the modelling assumption about the structure of wage contracts (Calvo vs. Taylor) and about other institutional characteristics of wage-setting (clustering of contracts, heterogeneous contract length, indexation). I use survey evidence on price- and wage-setting for 15 European countries to calculate the degrees of RWR implied by the theoretical model. The average level of RWR is broadly in line with empirical estimates based on macroeconomic data. In order to be able to also match the observed cross-country variation in RWR it is, however, essential to move beyond the country-specific durations of price and wages and to take more institutional details into account." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Real wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy (2013)
Rhee, Hyuk Jae; Song, Jeongseok;Zitatform
Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Jeongseok Song (2013): Real wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 37, H. September, S. 110-127. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.04.004
Abstract
"The main objective of the study is to provide a theoretical analysis of optimal monetary policy in a small open economy where households set real wage in a staggered fashion. The introduction of real wage rigidities plays a important role to resolve main shortcomings of the standard new Keynesian small open economy model. The main findings regarding the issue of monetary policy design can be summarized as three fold. First, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, real wage inflation, and the output gap if both domestic price and real wage are sticky. Second, controlling CPI inflation directly or indirectly induces relatively large volatility in output gap and other inflations. Therefore, both CPI inflation-based Taylor rule and nominal wage-inflation based Taylor rule are suboptimal. Last, a policy that responds to a real wage inflation is most desirable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis (2012)
Guichard, Stephanie; Rusticelli, Elena;Zitatform
Guichard, Stephanie & Elena Rusticelli (2012): Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis. (OECD Economics Department working papers 918), Paris, 27 S. DOI:10.1787/5kg0kp712f6l-en
Abstract
"The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD. This paper shows that this increase has reversed the reduction in structural unemployment which has been estimated to have occurred in most OECD countries since the late 1990s. Structural unemployment is defined as a time-varying NAIRU derived from the information contained in a reduced Phillips curve equation (linking inflation to the unemployment gap) by means of a Kalman filter. The overall limited revisions in historical NAIRU estimated in 2008 after such a large labour market shock support the robustness of the OECD approach. This approach is therefore extended to almost all OECD countries. Alternative specifications of the Phillips curve are proposed for some specific groups of countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A search model of unemployment and inflation (2012)
Lehmann, Etienne;Zitatform
Lehmann, Etienne (2012): A search model of unemployment and inflation. In: The Scandinavian journal of economics, Jg. 114, H. 1, S. 245-266. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2011.01670.x
Abstract
"This paper introduces money into the standard labor-matching model. A double-coincidence problem makes money necessary as a medium of exchange. In the long run, a rise in the growth rate of money leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment, such that the longrun Phillips curve is not vertical. The optimal monetary growth rate decreases with greater worker bargaining power, the level of unemployment benefits, and the payroll tax rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wirtschaftskrisen: Geschichte und Gegenwart (2012)
Plumpe, Werner; Dubisch, Eva J.;Zitatform
Plumpe, Werner & Eva J. Dubisch (2012): Wirtschaftskrisen. Geschichte und Gegenwart. (Beck'sche Reihe: C.H. Beck Wissen 2701), München: Beck, 128 S.
Abstract
"Das Buch gibt einen knappen Überblick über Arten, Ursachen und Verläufe der Wirtschaftskrisen von der Frühmoderne bis zur Gegenwart und macht die heutigen Probleme dadurch erst richtig verständlich. Es zeigt sich, dass die immer wieder gezogenen Parallelen zur Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1929 mit ihren apokalyptischen Folgen ins Leere laufen. Die Krisen des letzten Jahrzehnts sind vielmehr durch Bedingungen geprägt, wie sie sich in der vergleichsweise liberalen Weltwirtschaft vor 1914 beobachten lassen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Incomes policies, expectations and the NAIRU (2012)
Pollan, Wolfgang;Zitatform
Pollan, Wolfgang (2012): Incomes policies, expectations and the NAIRU. (WIFO working papers 433), Wien, 18 S.
Abstract
"Since the 1960s, several countries have adopted incomes policies in various forms to control inflation that had been interpreted as the result of a distributional struggle between business and labour unions. Recent writings on the NAIRU, however, ignore past policy interventions in the wage and price setting system, in the formation and propagation of inflation expectations, in particular. Some of the problems inherent in such an approach are illustrated in this paper by applying the standard tools of NAIRU analysis to the Austrian economy, an economy that has been subject to a variety of policy measures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules (2012)
Proaño, Christian R.;Zitatform
Proaño, Christian R. (2012): Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules. In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Jg. 82, H. 1, S. 220-235. DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2011.11.005
Abstract
"In this paper the role of different types of labor market frictions in the dynamics of output and inflation is investigated. For this purpose, the Keynes-Goodwin model discussed in Chen et al. (2006) and Franke et al. (2006) is extended by a labor search and matching module along the lines of Mortensen et al. (1994). After estimating the resulting model with U.S. aggregate time series and comparing its dynamics with those of a VAR model, the performance of different types of monetary policy rules for inflation, and more generally, for macroeconomic stability is analyzed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Should monetary policy take account of national labor market asymmetries in a currency union? (2012)
Proaño, Christian R.;Zitatform
Proaño, Christian R. (2012): Should monetary policy take account of national labor market asymmetries in a currency union? In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 32, H. 2, S. 1878-1889.
Abstract
"This paper investigates the design of optimal monetary policy in a currency union with asymmetric national labor markets. For this purpose a stylized theoretical two-country model is introduced where the occurrence of inflation differentials is a reflection of asymmetries in the labor market flexibility between the two countries. Through numerical simulations it is shown that a larger weight of the country with the more sclerotic labor market in the loss function of the monetary union's central bank is more advantageous at the monetary union's level than a simple weighting scheme based on the relative economic size of both countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems (2012)
Schreiber, Sven;Zitatform
Schreiber, Sven (2012): Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 44, H. 10, S. 1315-1335. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2010.539548
Abstract
"Given that for France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands the unemployment rates are best classified as I(1), we apply permanent-transitory decompositions based on co-integrated Vector Autoregressions (VAR) with relevant variables (labour productivity, wages, tax wedges, foreign relative prices) to estimate the time-varying natural unemployment rates. In general all variables seem to matter, and the results are quite different from published Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nairus. Our implied unemployment gaps are better than the OECD gaps in predicting unemployment changes and inflation gaps, but they are (except for Italy) as bad as the OECD gaps for forecasting inflation changes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2012)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2012): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? In: European Economic Review, Jg. 56, H. 4, S. 870-887., 2012-02-15. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.02.013
Abstract
"Focusing on the compression of wage cuts, many empirical studies find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). However, the resulting macroeconomic effects seem to be surprisingly weak. This contradiction can be explained within an intertemporal framework in which DNWR not only prevents nominal wage cuts but also induces firms to compress wage increases. We analyze whether a compression of wage increases occurs when DNWR is binding by applying Unconditional Quantile Regression and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to a dataset comprising more than 169 million wage changes. We find evidence of a compression of wage increases and only very small effects of DNWR on average real wage growth. The results indicate that DNWR does not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities (2011)
Benigno, Pierpaolo; Ricci, Luca Antonio;Zitatform
Benigno, Pierpaolo & Luca Antonio Ricci (2011): The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities. In: The American economic review, Jg. 101, H. 4, S. 1436-1466. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.4.1436
Abstract
"The macroeconomic implications of downward nominal wage rigidities are analyzed via a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. A closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outwards and reduces output. The results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across countries with different macroeconomic volatility. Results are robust to relaxing the wage constraint, for example, when large idiosyncratic shocks arise." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was Phillips right?: evidence from a dynamic panel (2011)
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Skare, Marinko;Zitatform
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Marinko Skare (2011): Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was Phillips right? Evidence from a dynamic panel. (CESifo working paper 3502), München, 45 S.
Abstract
"In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips' tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results strongly support the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output growth, giving support to Phillips' Golden Triangle theory." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The return of the wage Phillips curve (2011)
Galí, Jordi;Zitatform
Galí, Jordi (2011): The return of the wage Phillips curve. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 9, H. 3, S. 436-461. DOI:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01023.x
Abstract
"The standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting is shown to imply a simple dynamic relation between wage inflation and unemployment. Under some assumptions, that relation takes a form similar to that found in empirical wage equations - starting from Phillips' (1958) original work - and may thus be viewed as providing some theoretical foundations to the latter. The structural wage equation derived here is shown to account reasonably well for the comovement of wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the US economy, even under the strong assumption of a constant natural rate of unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The evolution of the Phillips Curve: a modern time series viewpoint (2011)
Granger, Clive W. J.; Jeon, Yongil;Zitatform
Granger, Clive W. J. & Yongil Jeon (2011): The evolution of the Phillips Curve. A modern time series viewpoint. In: Economica, Jg. 78, H. 309, S. 51-66. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00839.x
Abstract
"Phillips' (1958) original curve involves a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. We consider how his original results change due to updated theoretic and empirical studies, increased computer power, enlarged datasets, increases in data frequency and developed time series econometric models. In the linear models, there was weak causation from unemployment to inflation. Rather than using any of the many nonlinear models that are now available, we adopt a time-varying parameter linear model as their convenient proxy, which empirically supports Phillips' use of nonlinear model form and causation, but the strength of this result is much weaker in recent periods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How flexible are real wages in EU countries?: a panel investigation (2011)
Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand; Rusinova, Desislava;Zitatform
Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Desislava Rusinova (2011): How flexible are real wages in EU countries? A panel investigation. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1360), Frankfurt, M., 32 S.
Abstract
"In this paper we estimate the degree of real wage flexibility in 19 EU countries1 in a wage Phillips curve panel framework. We find evidence for a reaction of wage growth to unemployment and productivity growth. However, due to unemployment persistence, over time the real wage response weakens substantially. Our results suggest that the degree of real wage flexibility tends to be larger in the central and eastern European (CEE) countries than in the euro area; weaker in downturns than during upswings. Moreover, there exists an inflation threshold, below which real wage flexibility seems to decrease. Finally, we find that part of the heterogeneity in real wage flexibility and unemployment might be related to differences in the wage bargaining institutions and more specifically the extent of labour market regulation in different country groups within the EU." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))