Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
The aging-inflation puzzle: On the interplay between aging, inflation and pension system (2018)
Härtl, Klaus; Leite, Duarte N.;Zitatform
Härtl, Klaus & Duarte N. Leite (2018): The aging-inflation puzzle: On the interplay between aging, inflation and pension system. (MEA discussion papers / Munich Center for the Economics of Aging 2018,06), München, 56 S.
Abstract
"Dieser Beitrag diskutiert den empirisch beobachteten Zusammenhang zwischen demographischem Wandel und Inflation und untersucht dabei die Art dieser rätselhaften Beziehung mithilfe einer theoretischen Methodik. Die Arbeit setzt die gegensätzlichen empirischen Befunde in der Literatur in Beziehung zueinander, indem sie ein Modell der überlappenden Generationen (OLG) anwendet, das mit einem Money-in-the-Utility-Modell (MIU) kombiniert wird. Während der demografische Wandel voranschreitet, wirken sich individuelle Lebenszyklusentscheidungen auf die Konsumnachfrage und Geldbestände und folglich auf Preisänderungen aus. Wir unterscheiden beim demografischen Wandel zwischen Veränderungen der Bevölkerungsgröße und -struktur und zeigen, wie sich diese Faktoren in einer alternden Gesellschaft einzeln auf die Inflation auswirken. Veränderungen in der Bevölkerungsgröße sind die Hauptursache für den Zusammenhang zwischen Alterung und Inflation, während Veränderungen in der Bevölkerungsstruktur von geringerer Bedeutung sind. Wir untersuchen auch, wie sich die Einführung und die daraus folgenden Implikationen eines öffentlichen, umlagefinanzierten Rentensystems negativ auf die Inflation auswirken. Im Gegensatz dazu haben endogene Arbeitsreaktionen einen abschwächenden Effekt auf diese negative Wirkung auf die Inflation. Für eine Auswahl an Ländern simulieren wir verschiedene Stadien des demografischen Wandels und unterschiedliche Großzügigkeiten der Rentensysteme. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass alternde Länder mit großzügigen PAYG-Rentensystemen einem starken Deflationsdruck ausgesetzt sind, während jüngere Länder einem Inflationsdruck ausgesetzt sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation (2018)
Nucci, Francesco; Riggi, Marianna;Zitatform
Nucci, Francesco & Marianna Riggi (2018): Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 55, H. March, S. 274-292. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.11.002
Abstract
"The fall in the US labor force participation during the Great Recession stands in sharp contrast with its parallel increase in the euro area. In addition to structural forces, cyclical factors are also shown to account for these patterns, with the participation rate being procyclical in the US since the inception of the crisis and countercyclical in the euro area. We rationalize these diverging developments by using a general equilibrium business cycle model, which nests the endogenous participation decisions into a search and matching framework. We show that the 'added worker' effect might outweigh the 'discouragement effect' if real wage rigidities are allowed for and/or habit in consumers' preferences is sufficiently strong. We then draw the implications of variable labor force participation for inflation and establish the following result: if endogenous movements in labor market participation are envisaged, then the degree of real wage rigidities becomes almost irrelevant for price dynamics. Indeed, during recessions, the upward pressures on inflation stemming from the lack of downward adjustment of real wages are offset by an opposite influence from the additional looseness in the labor market, due to the higher participation associated with wage rigidities." (Author's abstract, © 2017 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters (2018)
Zitatform
Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera (2018): Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations. An empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 50, H. 42, S. 4540-4555. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2018.1458193
Abstract
"Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area? (2017)
Bulligan, Guido; Viviano, Eliana;Zitatform
Bulligan, Guido & Eliana Viviano (2017): Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area? In: IZA journal of labor policy, Jg. 6, S. 1-22. DOI:10.1186/s40173-017-0087-z
Abstract
"Increasing evidence shows that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the euro area, the relationship between price inflation and economic slack became stronger. Instead, there is no clear evidence of a strong(er) relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. In this paper, we estimate a Phillips curve with time-varying coefficients separately for Italy, Spain, Germany and France and we find that, with the exception of Germany, after the global financial crisis, the sensitivity of hourly wage changes to labour market slack increased. Second, by the use of administrative microdata, available only for Italy, we relate daily wage changes to the local unemployment rate. The results confirm the steepening of the Phillips curve after 2008, also when controlling for composition effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Pre-recession wage inflation and the strength of the subsequent recovery (2017)
Campbell, Carl M.;Zitatform
Campbell, Carl M. (2017): Pre-recession wage inflation and the strength of the subsequent recovery. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 24, H. 18, S. 1331-1334. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2016.1276264
Abstract
"This study shows that the rate of wage inflation in the year before a recession is positively related to the rate of employment growth in the subsequent recovery. A possible explanation for this relationship is downward nominal wage rigidity. It is also found that the prior rate of wage inflation is not significantly related to the employment decline during the ensuing recession, suggesting that prior wage inflation has a greater impact on the strength of the recovery from a recession than on the severity of the recession." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain (2017)
Gehrke, Britta; Yao, Fang;Zitatform
Gehrke, Britta & Fang Yao (2017): Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain. In: Journal of International Money and Finance, Jg. 79, H. December, S. 99-114., 2017-09-08. DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.008
Abstract
"This paper re-examines the role of supply shocks for real exchange rate fluctuations and contributes by exploiting insights from the frequency-domain perspective. In contrast to the existing literature, our empirical findings point towards an important role played by supply (productivity) shocks in driving US real effective exchange rate fluctuations at low frequencies, while real demand shocks matter mostly at high and medium frequencies. In addition, we propose an approach to structurally decompose the persistence of the real exchange rate and find that supply shocks explain up to half of its persistence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Gehrke, Britta; -
Literaturhinweis
The labour share and the dynamics of output (2017)
Malikane, Christopher;Zitatform
Malikane, Christopher (2017): The labour share and the dynamics of output. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 49, H. 37, S. 3741-3750. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2016.1267845
Abstract
"We derive a new Keynesian IS curve that is augmented to capture the direct effects of the labour share on output. Our derivation shows that the direct effect of the labour share on output is ambiguous. Furthermore, theory suggests that the expected labour share negatively affects output. Empirically, we find that the labour share plays a significant role in driving output dynamics. However contrary to theoretical expectation, the expected labour share positively affects output in some cases, a finding we call the 'labour share puzzle'. We also find that over time, there seems to be a general shift in aggregate demand dynamics towards being profit-led, i.e. rising labour share decreases output. We conclude that policymakers should not ignore the labour share in their decisions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
'Modern' Phillips curves and the implications for the statistical process of inflation (2017)
Russell, Bill;Zitatform
Russell, Bill (2017): 'Modern' Phillips curves and the implications for the statistical process of inflation. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 24, H. 1, S. 58-60. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2016.1161710
Abstract
"'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated' process. This article explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Liquidity traps and jobless recoveries (2017)
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín;Zitatform
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Martín Uribe (2017): Liquidity traps and jobless recoveries. In: American Economic Journal. Macroeconomics, Jg. 9, H. 1, S. 165-204. DOI:10.1257/mac.20150220
Abstract
"This paper proposes a model that explains the joint occurrence of liquidity traps and jobless growth recoveries. Its key elements are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor- type interest rate feedback rule, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and a confidence shock. Absent a change in policy, the model predicts that low inflation and high unemployment become chronic. With capital accumulation, the model predicts, in addition, an investment slump. The paper identifies a New Fisherian effect, whereby raising the nominal interest rate to its intended target for an extended period of time can boost inflationary expectations and thereby foster employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market frictions and monetary policy design (2016)
Almosova, Anna;Zitatform
Almosova, Anna (2016): Labor market frictions and monetary policy design. (Sonderforschungsbereich Ökonomisches Risiko. Discussion paper 2016-054), Berlin, 41 S.
Abstract
"This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with search frictions and monetary rules augmented with different labor market indicators. In accordance with a theoretical literature I find that a central bank reacts to a labor market tightness, employment or unemployment. Posterior odds tests speak in favor of models with augmented Taylor rules versus a model with a model with a standard rule. The augmented rules were also shown to be more efficient in terms of welfare." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Comment on "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment" (2016)
Boldrin, Michele;Zitatform
Boldrin, Michele (2016): Comment on "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment". In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 26-32. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.12.005
Abstract
"My comments are divided in two parts, of unequal lengths. The first, concerned with the specific contribution of Rudebusch and Williams (2016), explains why I find their argument for the differential role of short- and long-term un- employment in determining wage dynamics far from convincing. In doing so I will not dwell with the econometric technicalities that make up the bulk of the paper; they contribute little to understanding the main economic issues which I address. The second, much shorter, part of my comments takes the present paper as an example of the now widespread habit of adopting highly stylized reduced form models with inadequate economic foundations to derive crucial policy ad- vice. There are very many papers like this in the current money-macro literature and I do not mean to single this one out as anything special: it is just one example among many. Still, I do find this trend rather worrisome." (Text excerpt, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market frictions and optimal steady-state inflation (2016)
Carlsson, Mikael; Westermark, Andreas;Zitatform
Carlsson, Mikael & Andreas Westermark (2016): Labor market frictions and optimal steady-state inflation. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 78, H. April, S. 67-79. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.01.002
Abstract
"In central theories of monetary non-neutrality, the Ramsey optimal steady-state inflation rate varies between the negative of the real interest rate and zero. This paper explores how the interaction of nominal wage and search and matching frictions affect the policy prescription. We show that adding the combination of such frictions to the canonical monetary model can generate an optimal inflation rate that is significantly positive. Specifically, for a standard U.S. calibration, we find a Ramsey optimal inflation rate of 1.16 percent per year." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
NAIRU estimates for Germany: new evidence on the in?ation - unemployment tradeoff (2016)
Kajuth, Florian;Zitatform
Kajuth, Florian (2016): NAIRU estimates for Germany. New evidence on the in?ation - unemployment tradeoff. In: German Economic Review, Jg. 17, H. 1, S. 104-125. DOI:10.1111/geer.12055
Abstract
"Meaningful estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) within a Phillips curve framework require an identified tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. However, observations of inflation and unemployment are equilibrium points giving rise to a simultaneity problem. We assess conventional identifying assumptions in the literature on the German NAIRU in a general bi-variate equations system of inflation and unemployment. We use a data-driven method for identification based on shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to identify the tradeoff for Germany. Our results support models which estimate a contemporaneous effect of unemployment on inflation and those which model inflation and unemployment jointly." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data (2016)
Kumar, Anil; Orrenius, Pia M.;Zitatform
Kumar, Anil & Pia M. Orrenius (2016): A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 84-102. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.003
Abstract
"Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term versus long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure than changes in the unemployment rate above the historical average. We also find that the short-term unemployment rate has a strong relationship with both average and median wage growth, while the long-term unemployment rate appears to only influence median wage growth." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Did the global financial crisis break the U.S. Phillips Curve? (2016)
Laseen, Stefan; Taheri Sanjani, Marzie;Zitatform
Laseen, Stefan & Marzie Taheri Sanjani (2016): Did the global financial crisis break the U.S. Phillips Curve? (IMF working paper 2016,126), Washington, DC, 42 S.
Abstract
"Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Comment on Rudebusch and Williams "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment" (2016)
Lothian, James R.;Zitatform
Lothian, James R. (2016): Comment on Rudebusch and Williams "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment". In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 19-25. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.006
Abstract
"Rudebusch and Williams (2015) conclude 'A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment' with the policy prescription 'Optimal policy should trade off a transitory period of excessive inflation in order to bring the broader measure of underemployment to normal levels more quickly.' The question that I address is whether our knowledge of the dynamics linking monetary policy, inflation and real growth is sufficiently well-developed that policy recommendations of the sort that Rudebusch and Williams proffer can be effective. I present two bodies of empirical evidence pertinent to this issue. The first has to do with the Phillips Curve itself; the second with the class of models now used to analyze the economic effects of monetary policy." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment (2016)
Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Williams, John C.;Zitatform
Rudebusch, Glenn D. & John C. Williams (2016): A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 5-18. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.05.001
Abstract
"In standard macroeconomic models, the two objectives in the Federal Reserve's dual mandate -- full employment and price stability -- are closely intertwined. We motivate and estimate an alternative model in which long-term unemployment varies endogenously over the business cycle but does not affect price inflation. In this new model, an increase in long-term unemployment as a share of total unemployment creates short-term trade- offs for optimal monetary policy and a wedge in the dual mandate. In particular, faced with high long-term unemployment following the Great Recession, optimal monetary pol- icy would allow inflation to overshoot its target more than in standard models." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Measuring the US NAIRU as a step function (2016)
Yamada, Hiroshi; Yoon, Gawon;Zitatform
Yamada, Hiroshi & Gawon Yoon (2016): Measuring the US NAIRU as a step function. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 51, H. 4, S. 1679-1688. DOI:10.1007/s00181-015-1048-2
Abstract
"This paper reestimates the time-varying nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in the US. By assuming the NAIRU is a step function, not a smooth function, we show that a simple empirical model provides evidence supporting the consensus among macroeconomists that the US NAIRU was constant at about 6.0% from the 1980s to the mid-1990s and then fell sharply below 6.0% in the late 1990s." (Author's abstract, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labour market institutions and inflation differentials in the EU (2015)
Zitatform
D'Adamo, Gaetano & Riccardo Rovelli (2015): Labour market institutions and inflation differentials in the EU. (IZA discussion paper 9389), Bonn, 40 S.
Abstract
"Adopting a simple Phillips curve framework, we show that different labour market institutions across EU countries are associated with significant differences in the response of inflation to unemployment and exchange rate shocks. More wage coordination and higher union density flatten the Phillips curve and increase the inflation response to the real exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through. In addition, using a new approach to the classification of goods and services as 'traded' or 'non-traded', we show that both these institutional effects are significantly stronger for the more exposed (traded) sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy (2015)
Zitatform
Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mewael Tesfaselassie (2015): Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy. (Kieler Arbeitspapier 2003), Kiel, 23 S.
Abstract
"We analyze the implications of changes in the trend growth rate for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show that trend growth in itself does not generate a trade-off for the monetary authority, but that it interacts importantly with the inefficiencies stemming from the labor market. Higher trend growth exacerbates the inefficiencies of the labor market and therefore calls for larger deviations from price stability." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))