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Albinowski, Maciej & Piotr Lewandowski (2024): The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 87. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102481

Abstract

"We study the age- and gender-specific labour market effects of two key modern technologies, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and robots. Our sample includes 14 European countries between 2010 and 2018. We use the variation in technology adoption between industries and apply the instrumental variables strategy proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) to identify the causal effects of technology adoption. We find that exposure to ICT and robots increased the shares of young and prime-aged women in employment and in the wage bills of particular sectors. However, it reduced the shares of older women and prime-aged men. We do not detect significant effects of technology adoption on the relative wages of most demographic groups. Between 2010 and 2018, the growth in ICT capital played a larger role than robot adoption in the changes in the withinsector labor market outcomes of demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, ©2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Sabrina Genz, Terry Gregory, Florian Lehmer & Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage (2024): De-Routinization in the Fourth Industrial Revolution - Firm-Level Evidence. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16740), Bonn, 65 S.

Abstract

"This paper examines the extent to which aggregate-level de-routinization can be attributed to firm-level technology adoption during the most recent technological expansion. We use administrative data and a novel firm survey to distinguish frontier technologies from older technologies. We find that adopters of frontier technologies contribute substantially to deroutinization. However, this is driven only by a subset of these firms: large adopters replace routine jobs and less routine-intensive adopters experience faster growth. These scale and composition effects reflect firms' readiness to adopt and implement frontier technologies. Our results suggest that an acceleration of technology adoption would be associated with faster de-routinization and an increase in between-firm heterogeneity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Avery, Mallory, Andreas Leibbrandt & Joseph Vecci (2024): Does Artificial Intelligence Help or Hurt Gender Diversity? Evidence from Two Field Experiments on Recruitment in Tech. (CESifo working paper 10996), München, 70 S.

Abstract

"The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in recruitment is rapidly increasing and drastically changing how people apply to jobs and how applications are reviewed. In this paper, we use two field experiments to study how AI recruitment tools can impact gender diversity in the male-dominated technology sector, both overall and separately for labor supply and demand. We find that the use of AI in recruitment changes the gender distribution of potential hires, in some cases more than doubling the fraction of top applicants that are women. This change is generated by better outcomes for women in both supply and demand. On the supply side, we observe that the use of AI reduces the gender gap in application completion rates. Complementary survey evidence suggests that anticipated bias is a driver of increased female application completion when assessed by AI instead of human evaluators. On the demand side, we find that providing evaluators with applicants' AI scores closes the gender gap in assessments that otherwise disadvantage female applicants. Finally, we show that the AI tool would have to be substantially biased against women to result in a lower level of gender diversity than found without AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barišić, Antea, Mahdi Ghodsi & Robert Stehrer (2024): Which Migrant Jobs are Linked with the Adoption of Novel Technologies, Robotization, and Digitalization? (WIIW working paper 241), Wien, 66 S.

Abstract

"In recent decades, the development of novel technologies has intenzified due to globalization, prompting countries to enhance competitiveness through innovation. These technologies have significantly improved global welfare, particularly in sectors like healthcare, where they have facilitated tasks and boosted productivity, for example playing a crucial role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, certain technologies, such as robots, can negatively impact employment by replacing workers and tasks. Additionally, the emergence of artificial intelligence as digital assets not only replaces specific tasks but also introduces complexities that may displace employees who are unable to adapt. While the existing literature extensively explores the heterogeneous effects of these technologies on labor markets, studies of their impact on migrant workers remain scarce. This paper presents pioneering evidence on the effects of various novel technologies on migrant employment in the European Union. The analysis covers 18 EU member states from 2005 to 2019 focusing on the impact of novel innovations, robot adoption, three types of digital assets, and total factor productivity, on migrant employment. The key findings reveal that innovations measured by the number of granted patents increase both the number and proportion of migrant workers relative to the overall workforce. While robots do replace jobs, their impact on native workers surpasses that of migrant workers, resulting in a higher share of migrant workers following robot adoption. Total factor productivity positively influences migrant workers, while the effects of digital assets are heterogeneous. Moreover, the impacts of these technologies on migrant workers vary significantly across different occupation types and educational levels." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carioli, Paolo, Dirk Czarnitzki & Gastón P. Fernández (2024): Evidence on the adoption of Artificial Intelligence: The role of skills shortage. (ZEW discussion paper 24-013), Mannheim, 37 S.

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) is considered to be the next general-purpose technology, with the potential of performing tasks commonly requiring human capabilities. While it is commonly feared that AI replaces labor and disrupts jobs, we instead investigate the potential of AI for overcoming increasingly alarming skills shortages in firms. We exploit unique German survey data from the Mannheim Innovation Panel on both the adoption of AI and the extent to which firms experience scarcity of skills. We measure skills shortage by the number of job vacancies that could not be filled as planned by firms, distinguishing among different types of skills. To account for the potential endogeneity of skills shortage, we also implement instrumental variable estimators. Overall, we find a positive and significant effect of skills shortage on AI adoption, the breadth of AI methods, and the breadth of areas of application of AI. In addition, we find evidence that scarcity of labor with academic education relates to firms exploring and adopting AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carstensen, Tanja & Kathrin Ganz (2024): Künstliche Intelligenz und Gender - eine Frage diskursiver (Gegen-)Macht? In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 77, H. 1, S. 26-33. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2024-1-26

Abstract

"Mit der Digitalisierung von Arbeit ist häufig die Frage verbunden, ob sich Geschlechterungleichheiten verändern. Aktuell wird dies vor allem mit Blick auf Künstliche Intelligenz (KI ) kontrovers diskutiert. Im betrieblichen Alltag gewinnt KI zunehmend an Relevanz ; in politischen, medialen und wissenschaftlichen Diskursen wird bereits seit einigen Jahren thematisiert, inwiefern KI aus Geschlechterperspektiven relevant ist. Dieser Beitrag untersucht diese Diskurse und widmet sich der Frage, inwiefern sich durch die Anwendung von KI -Technologien geschlechtliche Machtungleichheiten in der Arbeitswelt verändern und ob sich mit KI Ansatzpunkte für die Entwicklung von Gegenmacht erkennen lassen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Caselli, Mauro, Edwin Fourrier-Nicolai, Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano (2024): Digital Technologies and Firms' Employment and Training. (CESifo working paper 11056), München, 63 S.

Abstract

"This study examines the causal influence of digital technologies, specifically operational (ODT) and information digital technologies (IDT), on firms' employment structure using Italian firm-level data. It employs a unique empirical approach, constructing instrumental variables based on predetermined employment composition and global technological progress, proxied by patents. Findings indicate that IDT investment positively affects employment, favoring a skilled, IT-competent workforce, as supported by firms' training and recruitment plans. Conversely, ODT investment does not significantly alter total employment but skews the workforce towards temporary contracts. The study contributes methodologically by distinguishing between ODT and IDT and highlighting nuanced employment dynamics within firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chen, Xi, Xiang Wen Cai, Xu Ding, Le Song & Cheng Chen (2024): Intellectualization and substitution elasticity of capital on the labour force in logistics enterprises: evidence from China and the United States. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 31, H. 5, S. 395-400. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2022.2136615

Abstract

"This paper addresses the substitution elasticity of capital on the labor force in the context of the development of intellectualization. Given the substitution of capital for labor, China's benchmark listed logistics companies are compared with an American company to discuss the evolution of capital - labor substitution. A large-scale intellectualization process began in 2017, and based on a variable elasticity of substitution, this paper creates an econometric model of substitution elasticity between capital and labor and its evolution between 2017 and 2021. The American logistics company UPS maintains a relatively high level of substitution elasticity, and Chinese logistics companies are quickly catching up. The substitution elasticity of capital on labor in Chinese enterprises trends upward year after year. In 2021, the capital - labor substitution elasticity of logistics enterprises in both countries showed considerable growth. The calculation model of substitution elasticity presented in this paper can be extended to different regions and industries to measure intelligent development levels and the relationship between capital and the labor force." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damelang, Andreas & Michael Otto (2024): Who is Replaced by Robots? Robotization and the Risk of Unemployment for Different Types of Workers. In: Work and occupations, Jg. 51, H. 2, S. 181-206. DOI:10.1177/07308884231162953

Abstract

"We study the effects of robotization on unemployment risk for different types of workers. We examine the extent to which robotization increases inequality at the skill level and at the occupational level using two theoretical frameworks: skill-biased technological change and task-biased technological change. Empirically, we combine worker-level data with information on actual investments in industrial robots. Zooming in on the German manufacturing industry, our multivariate results show that robotization affects different types of workers differently. We do not observe an increase in unemployment risk for low- and medium-skilled, but we find a considerably lower unemployment risk among high-skilled workers. Moreover, the unemployment risk is significantly higher in occupations with highly substitutable tasks, but only in industries that invest largely in robots." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © SAGE) ((en))

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Dauth, Wolfgang, Michael Moritz, Katharina Grienberger, Florian Lehmer, Steffen Müller, Bernd Fitzenberger, Verena Plümpe, Oliver Falck, Anja Bauer, Anja Sonnenburg, Markus Janser, Christian Schneemann, André Diegmann, Britta Matthes & Anna Solms; Katharina Grienberger, Florian Lehmer, Steffen Müller, Bernd Fitzenberger, Verena Plümpe, Oliver Falck, Anja Bauer, Anja Sonnenburg, Markus Janser, Christian Schneemann, André Diegmann, Britta Matthes & Anna Solms (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2024): Wie bewältigen Regionen die digitale und ökologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt? (Podium). In: IAB-Forum H. 06.05.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240506.01

Abstract

"Was bedeuten die absehbaren Transformationsprozesse der kommenden Jahrzehnte auf regionaler Ebene und wie können sie gemeistert werden? Antworten auf diese Fragen gab der IWH/IAB-Workshop zur Arbeitsmarktpolitik, der in diesem Jahr erstmals am IAB in Nürnberg stattfand." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Dehnbostel, Peter (2024): Neugestaltung der betrieblichen Weiterbildung in der digitalen Transformation. In: Magazin Erwachsenenbildung.at H. 51, S. 64-73.

Abstract

"Die betriebliche Weiterbildung ist seit den 1980er Jahren stark gewachsen und hat sich zum größten Einzelbereich der beruflichen Weiterbildung entwickelt. Ihre aktuelle Entwicklung erfordert eine grundlegende Neugestaltung, die maßgeblich auf die digitale Transformation von Arbeit und Lernen zurückgeht und nach einem erweiterten Verständnis von beruflicher und betrieblicher Weiterbildung verlangt. Für die betriebliche Weiterbildung stehen nicht mehr die einschlägigen Angebote mit Kursen und Seminaren im Vordergrund, sondern der Kompetenzerwerb im Prozess der Arbeit selbst. Die digitale Transformation von Arbeit und Lernen zeigt sich insbesondere im arbeitsintegrierten Lernen, in neuen betrieblichen Lernkonzepten und Lernformen sowie in der Validierung von Kompetenzen, die Beschäftigte durch informelles und nicht-formales Lernen erwerben. Dies fördert die Durchlässigkeit beruflicher Bildungswege sowie die Gleichwertigkeit beruflicher und hochschulischer Bildung, was entscheidend zur Entwicklung eines eigenständigen und gleichwertigen Gesamtsystems der Berufs- und Weiterbildung beiträgt. Die noch am Anfang stehende Neugestaltung der betrieblichen Weiterbildung stärkt laut Beitrag den Bildungsanspruch im Sinne einer selbstbestimmten und humanen Persönlichkeitsentwicklung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Deng, Liuchun, Verena Plümpe & Jens Stegmaier (2024): Robot Adoption at German Plants. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 244, H. 3, S. 201-235., 2023-10-14. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2022-0073

Abstract

"Using a newly collected dataset at the plant level from 2014 to 2018, we provide the first microscopic portrait of robotization in Germany and study the correlates of robot adoption. Our descriptive analysis uncovers five stylized facts: (1) Robot use is relatively rare. (2) The distribution of robots is highly skewed. (3) New robot adopters contribute substantially to the recent robotization. (4) Robot users are exceptional. (5) Heterogeneity in robot types matters. Our regression results further suggest plant size, high-skilled labor share, exporter status, and labor shortage to be strongly associated with the future probability of robot adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Fana, Marta, Fernanda Bárcia De Mattos, Valeria Esquivel, Guendalina Anzolin, David Kucera & Sheeba Tejani (2024): The effects of automation in the apparel and automotive sectors and their gender dimensions. (JRC science for policy report 136639), Brüssel, 66 S.

Abstract

"This report is the final output of a research project investigating the effects of automation on employment in the automotive, apparel and footwear industries in five countries, namely Germany, Indonesia, Mexico, Romania, and Spain. The main objective of this project has been to improve our understanding of how ongoing processes of technological upgrading, particularly automation, impact women's and men's employment and work in these industries. Our findings suggest that, in the short term, close to the introduction of new automation technology, the impact on employment takes the form of reassignment of workers directly involved in automated processes to other positions, tasks, and occupations. This study also explored the impact of automation in terms of work organization and working conditions. Across the case studies, it emerged that the adoption of automation technologies has reduced heavy and repetitive tasks and improved health and safety for workers directly concerned by automation. Another interesting and related common finding is the reduction of workers' autonomy who are now subject to more standardization of tasks together with an ongoing process of deskilling of operators. Finally, in the apparel and footwear sector, we did not find evidence of defeminisation at the establishment level as well as the automotive factories remains highly male-dominated. Cultural norms and stereotypes which influence not only the jobs women and men apply to and get hired for, but also which training and education they engage in, contribute to this gender segregation in both sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Freundl, Vera, Philipp Lergetporer, Katharina Wedel & Katharina Werner (2024): Informationsbereitstellung zur Automatisierbarkeit von Berufen erhöht Weiterbildungsbereitschaft. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 77, H. 3, S. 39-43.

Abstract

"Beschäftige in Deutschland unterschätzen die Automatisierbarkeit ihres Berufs. Dies gilt vor allem für Beschäftigte in Berufen mit hoher Automatisierbarkeit, wie eine neue Studie von Lergetporer et al. (2023) zeigt. Die randomisierte Bereitstellung von Informationen über die tatsächliche Automatisierbarkeit ihrer Berufe erhöht die Arbeitsmarktsorgen und die Einschätzung über Veränderungen des Arbeitsumfelds. Außerdem wird die Teilnahmebereitschaft an Weiterbildungs und Umschulungsmaßnahmen erhöht, insbesondere bei Befragten in Berufen mit hoher Automatisierbarkeit. Dadurch verringert sich der Unterschied in der Weiterbildungsbereitschaft zwischen Beschäftigten in Berufen mit hoher und niedriger Automatisierbarkeit um 95,5 %, die Lücke in der Umschulungsbereitschaft wird sogar vollständig geschlossen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Gathmann, Christina, Christian Kagerl, Laura Pohlan & Duncan Roth (2024): The pandemic push: Digital technologies and workforce adjustments. In: Labour Economics, 2024-04-05. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102541

Abstract

"Using a novel firm survey matched to administrative employee records, we demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic was a push factor for the diffusion of digital technologies in Germany. Two out of three firms invested in digital technologies. Three quarters of those investing firms invested because of the pandemic, particularly in hardware and software to enable decentralized communication, management, and coordination. These investments also fostered additional firm-sponsored training, underscoring the complementarity between investments in digital technologies and training. We then show that the investments helped firms insure their workers against the economic downturn. Firms with additional digital investments retained more of their employees on regular working hours and relied less on short-time work. Low- and medium-skilled, as well as young workers, benefited the most from the insurance effect of digital investments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Gerlmaier, Anja & Alexander Bendel (2024): Wie kollegial ist Künstliche Intelligenz? Risikowahrnehmungen und Gestaltungsanforderungen aus Sicht von Beschäftigten. (IAQ-Report 2024-01), Duisburg ; Essen, 15 S. DOI:10.17185/duepublico/81427

Abstract

Zukünftig werden immer mehr Beschäftigte nicht nur in ihrem privaten Umfeld, sondern auch am Arbeitsplatz mit Systemen zusammenarbeiten, die auf Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) basieren. Das IAQ untersuchte im Rahmen des "HUMAINE"-Projektes, wie Beschäftigte die Kooperation mit solchen KI-Systemen bewerten und welche Gestaltungsanforderungen sie an diese neue Form der hybriden Mensch-KI-Zusammenarbeit haben. Es zeigte sich, dass KI-Systeme je nach Interaktionsform unterschiedliche Potenziale und Risiken aufweisen. Um die KI-basierten Risiken zu verringern, sollten Nutzer*innen frühzeitig an der Konzeption und Implementierung beteiligt und dabei arbeitswissenschaftliche Gestaltungskriterien berücksichtigt werden. (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku)

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Grienberger, Katharina, Britta Matthes & Wiebke Paulus (2024): Folgen des technologischen Wandels für den Arbeitsmarkt: Vor allem Hochqualifizierte bekommen die Digitalisierung verstärkt zu spüren. (IAB-Kurzbericht 05/2024), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2405

Abstract

"Die Potenziale, dass berufliche Tätigkeiten durch Computer oder computergesteuerte Maschinen vollautomatisch erledigt werden könnten, ändern sich, wenn neue Technologien auf dem Markt verfügbar werden. Bei der Neuberechnung solcher Substituierbarkeitspotenziale wird neben dieser Entwicklung auch berücksichtigt, dass sich die Tätigkeitsprofile in den Berufen verändern, neue Berufe und Tätigkeiten entstehen und Beschäftigte ihren Beruf wechseln. Die Autorinnen zeigen für die technologischen Möglichkeiten im Jahr 2022, wie hoch das Substituierbarkeitspotenzial derzeit ist und wie es sich seit 2013 verändert hat." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Grienberger, Katharina, Britta Matthes & Wiebke Paulus (2024): Anteil der beruflichen Tätigkeiten, die automatisiert werden könnten, variiert regional erheblich. In: IAB-Forum – Grafik aktuell H. 12.03.2024.

Abstract

"Das Substituierbarkeitspotenzial gibt an, in welchem Ausmaß Berufe potenziell durch den Einsatz von digitalen Technologien und KI ersetzbar sind. Bei der Aktualisierung der Daten für das Jahr 2022 zeigt sich, dass in Deutschland durchschnittlich 38 Prozent der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten in einem Beruf arbeiten, in dem das Substituierbarkeitspotenzial hoch ist, also bei über 70 % liegt (siehe auch IAB-Kurzbericht 5/2024). Dabei weisen nach wie vor das Saarland, Baden-Württemberg und Thüringen die höchsten Anteile an sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten in Berufen mit einem solch hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial auf. In Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Hamburg, Brandenburg, Schleswig-Holstein und Sachsen-Anhalt sind diese Anteile am niedrigsten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Guarascio, Dario, Alessandro Piccirillo & Jelena Reljic (2024): Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 1395), Essen, 31 S.

Abstract

"This study conducts a meta-analysis to assess the effects of robotization on employment and wages, compiling data from 33 studies with 644 estimates on employment and a subset of 19 studies with 195 estimates on wages. We identify a publication bias towards negative outcomes, especially concerning wages. After correcting for this bias, the actual impact appears minimal. Thus, concerns about the disruptive effects of robots on employment and the risk of widespread technological unemployment may be exaggerated or not yet empirically supported. While this does not preclude that robots will be capable of gaining greater disruptive potential in the future or that they are not already disruptive in specific contexts, the evidence to date suggests their aggregate effect is negligible." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hu, Shengming, Kai Lin, Bei Liu & Hui Wang (2024): Does robotization improve the skill structure? The role of job displacement and structural transformation. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 56, H. 28, S. 3415-3430. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2023.2206623

Abstract

"The literature generally focuses on the impact of robots or artificial intelligence on the employment and wages, but ignores the effect of robotization on the skill structure and its underlying mechanisms and lacks empirical evidence from developing countries. We theoretically develop a task model by introducing the skill structure and empirically investigate the effect of robotization on the skill structure based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2006 to 2018. Results show that: (1) the development of robotization in China is conducive to improving the skill structure, and the baseline conclusion still holds even though adopting multiple indexes of skill structure and controlling the endogeneity bias. (2) Robotization generates not only job displacement effect by displacing unskilled workers with robots but also structural transformation effect by increasing the proportion of technology-intensive industries, which can improve the skill structure. (3) In coastal provinces with strong Internet foundation, information transmission capacity and labour protection intensity, high labour cost and ageing rate, robotization plays a stronger role in improving the skill structure. Moreover, robotization can induce the employment polarization. These conclusions can help avoid technical unemployment and promote the upgrading of the skill structure in China." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Drawehn, Jens, Lydia Uhler, Bernd Dworschak, Jessica Wulf, Pia Mozer, Maximilien Kintz, Wolfgang Beinhauer, Dennis Klau, Bernd Bienzeisler, Matthias Peissner, Simone Kaiser, Udo-Ernst Haner, Thomas Renner, Jan Mackensen & Matthias Engelbach, Hölzle, Katharina, Oliver Riedel, Thomas Bauer & Thomas Renner (Hrsg.) Fraunhofer-Institut für Arbeitswirtschaft und Organisation Drawehn, Jens, Lydia Uhler, Bernd Dworschak, Jessica Wulf, Pia Mozer, Maximilien Kintz, Wolfgang Beinhauer, Dennis Klau, Bernd Bienzeisler, Matthias Peissner, Simone Kaiser, Udo-Ernst Haner, Thomas Renner, Jan Mackensen & Matthias Engelbach (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2024): Potenziale Generativer KI für den Mittelstand. Wie große KI-Modelle die Arbeitswelt verändern. Stuttgart, 72 S. DOI:10.24406/publica-2246

Abstract

"Seit der Veröffentlichung von ChatGPT im November 2022 haben die Entwicklungen im Bereich Generative KI deutlich an Fahrt aufgenommen. In kurzer Abfolge wurden - und werden immer noch - neue Modelle und Funktionen vorgestellt. Zunehmend zeichnen sich breite Einsatzmöglichkeiten in den Unternehmen ab, mit einem hohen zu erwartenden Nutzenpotenzial. Vor allem für mittelständische Unternehmen stellt es eine Herausforderung dar, die Bedeutung der Entwicklungen einzuschätzen und eine strukturierte Vorgehensweise zum Thema Generative KI zu definieren und umzusetzen. Das Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Arbeit und Tourismus Baden-Württemberg hat das Fraunhofer IAO beauftragt, mittels einer Studie eine Orientierungshilfe zu den aktuellen Entwicklungen zu bieten und konkrete Empfehlungen für den Umgang mit Generativer KI zu geben. Ein vielköpfiges Autorenteam des Fraunhofer IAO aus verschiedenen Forschungsbereichen hat, neben einer ausführlichen Literaturrecherche, 48 Expertinnen und Experten im Bereich Generativer KI zu ihren Einschätzungen befragt. Es wurden sowohl Forschungseinrichtungen, KI-Anbieter, Dienstleister als auch Anwenderunternehmen miteinbezogen. Das Ergebnis der Recherche und Befragung liegt in Form dieser Studie vor, die einen Beitrag zum bewussten und zielgerichteten Umgang mit Generativer KI in den Unternehmen leisten soll." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Keppeler, Florian (2024): No Thanks, Dear AI! Understanding the Effects of Disclosure and Deployment of Artificial Intelligence in Public Sector Recruitment. In: Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, Jg. 34, H. 1, S. 39-52. DOI:10.1093/jopart/muad009

Abstract

"Applications based on artificial intelligence (AI) play an increasing role in the public sector and invoke political discussions. Research gaps exist regarding the disclosure effects—reactions to disclosure of the use of AI applications—and the deploymenteffect—efficiency gains in data savvy tasks. This study analyzes disclosure effects and explores the deployment of an AI application in a preregistered field experiment (n = 2,000) co-designed with a public organization in the context of employer-driven recruitment. The linear regression results show that disclosing the use of the AI application leads to significantly less interest in an offer among job candidates. The explorative analysis of the deployment of the AI application indicates that the person–job fit determined by the leaders can be predicted by the AIapplication. Based on the literature on algorithm aversion and digital discretion, this study provides a theoretical and empirical disentanglement of the disclosure effect and the deployment effect to inform future evaluations of AI applications in the public sector. It contributes to the understanding of how AI applications can shape public policy and management decisions, and discusses the potential benefits and downsides of disclosing and deploying AI applications in the public sector and in employer-driven recruitment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kristal, Tali, Efrat Herzberg-Druker & Adena White (2024): Is the wage premium on using computers at work gender-specific? In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 89. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2024.100890

Abstract

"Past research on the relationship between computers and wages has revealed two stylized facts. First, workers who use a computer at work earn higher wages than similar workers who do not (termed as ‘the computer wage premium’). Second, women are more likely to use a computer at work than are men. Given the recognized computer wage premium and women’s advantage in computer use at work, we ask: Is the wage premium on using computers at work gender- or non-gender-specific? Given gendered processes operating at both the occupational and within-occupation levels, we expect that returns to computer usage are gender-bias. This contrasts the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) theory assumption that the theorized pathways through which computers boost earnings are non-gender-specific productivity-enhancing mechanisms. Analyzing occupational data on computer use at work from O*NET attached to the 1979–2016 Current Population Surveys (CPS) and individual-level data from the 2012 Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), we find that the computer wage premium is biased in favor of men at the occupation level. We conclude by suggesting that computer-based technologies relate to reproducing old forms of gender pay inequality due to gendered processes that operate mainly at the structural level (i.e., occupations) rather than at the individual level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Köhler, Thomas R. & Julia Finkeissen (2024): Business 5.0. Der Praxis-Guide für Künstliche Intelligenz in Unternehmen - Chancen und Risiken. Frankfurt;New York: Campus Verlag, 253 S.

Abstract

"Endlich ist er da, der Durchbruch für Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) bzw. Artificial Intelligence (AI). Doch Zweifel an der "Universalwaffe" ChatGPT und ähnlichen KI-Systemen sind erlaubt. Thomas R. Köhler und Julia Finkeissen liefern in ihrem neuen Buch eine Bestandsaufnahme der aktuellen Technologien und trennen dabei schonungslos Hype von Wirklichkeit. Sie liefern das Rüstzeug für jede Führungskraft, um KI aktiv im Unternehmen sinnvoll einzusetzen. Business 5.0 zeigt in sieben Schritten, wo und wie KI-Projekte im Unternehmen etabliert werden können, und liefert konkrete Beispiele für unterschiedliche Branchen und Querschnittsfunktionen. Ein nachhaltiger KI-Einsatz im Unternehmen steht dabei im Mittelpunkt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © Campus)

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Livanos, Ilias & Panagiotis Ravanos (2024): Job loss and Covid-19: an analysis on the impacts of remote work and automation. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 31, H. 8, S. 712-723. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2022.2146641

Abstract

"Using a unique dataset from a dedicated Cedefop Skills Forecast scenario on the impacts of COVID-19, this paper explores two possible determinants of expected job loss in the European Union (EU) due to the pandemic, namely the potential of work from home and the impacts of automation. Our findings suggest that less remote work and more automation are both related to future job losses across countries and occupations. These links are stronger in 2020–2021 at the country level, while becoming significant at the occupation level after 2022 when several protective measures taken by EU governments are expected to have been lifted." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lühr, Thomas & Tobias Kämpf (2024): KI und der Wandel von Angestelltenarbeit. Zum „blinden Fleck“ der aktuellenAutomatisierungsdebatte. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 77, H. 2, S. 98-106. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2024-2-98

Abstract

"Der Beitrag analysiert den Wandel von Angestelltenarbeit vor dem Hintergrund der digitalen Transformation. Ausgangspunkt ist ein Automatisierungsschub, der durch erweiterte Möglichkeiten der Nutzung Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) geprägt ist. Auf der Grundlage empirischer Befunde werden die qualitativen Veränderungstendenzen von Arbeit in den Blick genommen, und zwar sowohl aus der Anwenderperspektive der Sachbearbeiter*innen als auch aus der Sicht der hochqualifizierten Entwickler*innen und Implementoren neuer KI-Lösungen. Insgesamt wird ein Strukturwandel von Angestelltenarbeit konstatiert, der nicht nur das Risiko von Jobverlusten, sondern auch Potenziale für eine Aufwertung und Höherqualifizierung hervorbringt und sich im Angestelltenbewusstsein manifestiert. In arbeitspolitischer Perspektive eröffnen sich Anknüpfungspunkte für eine Vorwärtsstrategie im Sinne eines nachhaltigen Umbaus von Beschäftigung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Nikolova, Milena, Femke Cnossen & Boris Nikolaev (2024): Robots, meaning, and self-determination. In: Research Policy, Jg. 53, H. 5. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2024.104987

Abstract

"This paper is the first to examine the impact of robotization on work meaningfulness, autonomy, competence, and relatedness, which are essential to motivation and well-being at work. Using surveys of workers and robotization data for 14 industries in 20 European countries spanning 2005–2021, we find a consistent negative impact of robotization on perceived work meaningfulness and autonomy. Using instrumental variables, we find that doubling robotization leads to a 0.9 % decrease in work meaningfulness and a 1 % decline in autonomy. To put this in perspective, if the robotization levels of the top 5 industry were to match those of the leading industry in terms of robot adoption in 2020 (equivalent to a 7.5-fold increase), it would result in a decline of 6.8 % in work meaningfulness and 7.5 % in autonomy. The link between robotization, competence, and relatedness is also negative but less robust. We also examine how tasks, skills, and socio-demographic characteristics moderate the main relationships. We find that workers with routine tasks experience an even greater negative effect of robotization in terms of declines in their autonomy, competence, and relatedness. However, we also discover that utilizing computers as tools for independent work can help workers maintain a sense of autonomy, competence, and relatedness in industries and job roles that adopt robots. Our results highlight that by deteriorating work meaningfulness and self-determination, robotization can impact work life above and beyond its consequences for employment and wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Nurski, Laura & Nina Ruer (2024): Exposure to generative artificial intelligence in the European labour market. (Working paper / Bruegel 2024,06), Brüssel, 33 S.

Abstract

"We apply two sets of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) occupational exposure scores – one task-based, one ability-based – to the European Labour Force Survey. While using different methodologies, our findings reveal consistent demographic patterns across the two approaches: jobs held by women, highly educated and younger workers are more exposed to GenAI technology in Europe. We also review the literature on the recent productivity impact of GenAI. Within the same occupations, less-experienced or less-skilled workers consistently get the largest productivity gains from GenAI support. We argue that a task-based analysis is more fruitful than an ability-based one, both for guiding GenAI adoption in organisations and their workplaces, and for assessing the employment and job quality impact on workers. Finally, we provide policy recommendations that can help workers (ie the labor supply) adjust to technological disruption, such as providing training and social safety nets. But we go further by also suggesting policy interventions that could redirect future labor demand towards better jobs, by promoting job redesign and organisational agility. Monitoring GenAI’s employment effects and researching the ‘jagged technological frontier’ is necessary to further build our understanding of the employment impact of this transformational technology." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pfeiffer, Sabine (2024): KI im Unternehmen – Herausforderungen an die betriebliche Gestaltung moderner Arbeit. In: Faktor Arbeitsschutz H. 11, S. 34-39.

Abstract

"Eine Befragung von Beschäftigten zu ihrer Einstellung gegenüber der Nutzung von KI bei der Arbeit ergab – entgegen immer wieder behaupteter Angstzuschreibung – ein abgewogenes „Es kommt darauf an“. Wichtig ist es, Beschäftigte von Anfang an bei der Installation von KI im Betrieb zu beteiligen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Saam, Marianne (2024): The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Productivity and Employment – How Can We Assess It and What Can We Observe? In: Intereconomics, Jg. 59, H. 1, S. 22-27. DOI:10.2478/ie-2024-0006

Abstract

"Technological optimists have been predicting the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution since the beginning of the past decade. This expectation contrasts with low productivity growth in many countries. The commercial release of ChatGPT in late 2022 has lead to rising expectations about a dramatic shift at least equivalent to the one associated with the commercial introduction of the Internet. But what is AI from an economic point of view? How can we observe the diffusion of AI in the economy and assess its effects in order to the draw conclusions for economic policy?" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schludi, Martin, Anna Wallheinke, Laura Deckbar, Markus Lötzsch, Bernd Fitzenberger, Andrea Heilmaier, Monika Schnitzer, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Marcus König & Reint Gropp; Markus Lötzsch, Bernd Fitzenberger, Andrea Heilmaier, Monika Schnitzer, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Marcus König & Reint Gropp (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2024): Nürnberger Gespräche: Wie bewältigen Regionen die digitale und ökologische Transformation? (Podium). In: IAB-Forum H. 06.05.2024 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240506.02

Abstract

"Energiewende, Mobilitätswende, Digitalisierung, Künstliche Intelligenz: Die aktuellen Herausforderungen sind gewaltig. Die digitale und die ökologische Transformation setzen Staat und Unternehmen unter massiven Anpassungsdruck. Zugleich ist jede Region in unterschiedlicher Weise mit den Chancen und Risiken der Transformation konfrontiert. Resultieren daraus auch unterschiedliche regionale Anpassungsstrategien? Wie effektiv ist regionale Wirtschaftsförderung? Und führen die Transformationsprozesse zu einer Reorganisation von Wirtschaftsräumen? Diese und weitere Fragen diskutierten Expertinnen und Experten aus Wirtschaft, Wissenschaft und Regionalpolitik am 13. März dieses Jahres bei den „Nürnberger Gesprächen“." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Scholze, Alexander & Achim Hecker (2024): The job demands-resources model as a theoretical lens for the bright and dark side of digitization. In: Computers in Human Behavior, Jg. 155. DOI:10.1016/j.chb.2024.108177

Abstract

"With digitization continuing to reshape work environments, organizations must confront the challenges of comprehending its “bright side” and “dark side” effects. A growing imperative exists to comprehend how digitization affects employee well-being and to create sustainable health-centric workplaces. The established Job Demands-Resources model offers a pertinent theoretical framework for gaining fresh insights into alterations in job demands and resources caused by digitization. This study extends the Job Demands-Resources model to include digital job demands and resources by utilizing a sample of 898 white-collar employees. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling was employed to investigate digitization's interrelationships and dependencies within an organizational context. The results confirm that the Job Demands-Resources model offers a holistic approach to investigating the concrete effects of the “dark side" and “bright side" of digitization in a concrete work scenario and to classify them in a theoretically structured way. This study offers starting points for the future design of workplaces and strategies for organizations to harness the positive aspects of digitization while concurrently mitigating the psychological stress on employees." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Suleyman, Mustafa (2024): The Coming Wave. Künstliche Intelligenz, Macht und das größte Dilemma des 21. Jahrhunderts. München: Beck, 377 S.

Abstract

"Die Menschheitsgeschichte kennt Innovationsschübe, die unaufhaltsam wie ein Tsunami alles verändern - die landwirtschaftliche Revolution, die Dampfmaschine, das Internet. Künstliche Intelligenz ist die nächste große Welle, die Coming Wave, die auf uns zurollt, und wir sind darauf nicht vorbereitet. Als Mitgründer von DeepMind weiß Mustafa Suleyman wie nur wenige andere, was die neuen Technologien können und was sie anzurichten vermögen. In seinem wegweisenden, vielgelobten Buch verortet der KI-Pionier die kommende Welle in der Geschichte der Menschheit, spielt die politischen und gesellschaftlichen Folgen der neuen Technologien durch, und stellt sich dem größten Dilemma des 21. Jahrhunderts: wie wir von ihnen profitieren, ohne die Kontrolle zu verlieren. Bald werden wir in unserem täglichen Leben von KI umgeben sein. Sie wird unseren Alltag organisieren, unsere Wirtschaft prägen, und sogar Kernaufgaben der Staatsverwaltung übernehmen. Als Mitgründer von DeepMind hat Mustafa Suleyman viele Jahre im Zentrum der KI-Revolution gearbeitet. Das kommende Jahrzehnt wird nach seiner Einschätzung von rasanten technologischen Sprüngen geprägt sein, von neuen technologischen Möglichkeiten, über deren Folgen und Risiken wir noch kein klares Bild haben. Eines aber wissen wir: Wir brauchen die KI, um die Herausforderungen zu meistern, vor denen wir stehen, etwa den Klimawandel. Gleichzeitig bergen die neuen Technologien Gefahren, wie sie von keiner vorherigen Fortschrittswelle ausgingen, bis hin zur Auflösung von Staaten und einer Verdrängung des Menschen. Was macht man mit einer Welle, die auf den Strand zurast und sich nicht aufhalten lässt? Man versucht sie zu kanalisieren. Genau das ist das Anliegen dieses Buches: Inmitten immer intensiver werdender geopolitischer Konflikte den schmalen Grat zu finden, auf dem wir die Früchte der Technologie ernten, ohne ihr zum Opfer zu fallen. Das ist die zentrale Aufgabe unserer Zeit. "Unsere Zukunft hängt von den neuen Technologien ab, ist gleichzeitig aber durch sie gefährdet." Was KI für die Zukunft der Menschheit bedeutet Alle, die heute leben, sind betroffen DAS Buch zu Risiken, Chancen und Folgen der neuen Technologien Mustafa Suleyman ist Mitbegründer von DeepMind und einer der Pioniere der KI-Industrie. Wie wir die Oberhand behalten: Mustafa Suleyman über die Kernfrage unseres Jahrhunderts Ein 12-Punkte-Plan für den Umgang mit KI" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © C.H. Beck)

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Zhao, Yong, Da Yin, Lili Wang & Yihua Yu (2024): The rise of artificial intelligence, the fall of human wellbeing? In: International Journal of Social Welfare, Jg. 33, H. 1, S. 75-105. DOI:10.1111/ijsw.12586

Abstract

"Concerns exist regarding the impact on our lives of the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Using a large dataset of 137 countries over the period 2005–2018 from multiple sources, we estimate the causal effect of AI on individual-level subjective wellbeing. Our identification strategy is inferred from the gravity framework and uses merely the variation in exogenous drivers of a country's AI development. We find a significant negative effect of AI on an individual's wellbeing, in terms of current levels or expectations of future wellbeing. The results are robust to alternative measures of AI, identification strategies, and sampling. Moreover, we find evidence of significant heterogeneity in the impact of AI on individual wellbeing. Further, this dampening effect on individual wellbeing resulting from the use of AI is more prominent among young people, men, high-income groups, high-skilled groups, and manufacturing workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Zhou, Yongguang, Weihong Xie, Jingwu Li & Qun Li (2024): Effects of digital innovation on income inequality among different workforces: evidence from Chinese industries. In: Applied Economics online erschienen am 18.03.2024, S. 1-13. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2024.2331424

Abstract

"To understand the impact of digital innovation on the workforce and its role in achieving common prosperity, this paper uses data from Chinese A-share listed companies during 2006–2021 to investigate the effects of digital innovation on income inequality among different industry-level groups. We find that digital innovation significantly reduces income inequality among employees across industries, but it does not significantly impact income inequality within management groups. Through mechanistic analysis, we find that digital innovation decreases income inequality among ordinary employees whose incomes are closely linked to company performance and thereby for the entire workforce by narrowing the income gap across industries. However, as digital innovation does not significantly influence evaluation systems (e.g. educational degrees) for management income, it does not contribute to reducing income inequality among managerial levels. These findings provide valuable insights to develop policies for common prosperity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Özgül, Pelin, Marie-Christine Fregin, Michael Stops, Simon Janssen & Mark Levels (2024): High-skilled Human Workers in Non-Routine Jobs are Susceptible to AI Automation but Wage Benefits Differ between Occupations. (arXiv papers 2404.06472), 55 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2404.06472

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) will change human work by taking over specific job tasks, but there is a debate which tasks are susceptible to automation, and whether AI will augment or replace workers and affect wages. By combining data on job tasks with a measure of AI susceptibility, we show that more highly skilled workers are more susceptible to AI automation, and that analytical non-routine tasks are at risk to be impacted by AI. Moreover, we observe that wage growth premiums for the lowest and the highest required skill level appear unrelated to AI susceptibility and that workers in occupations with many routine tasks saw higher wage growth if their work was more strongly susceptible to AI. Our findings imply that AI has the potential to affect human workers differently than canonical economic theories about the impact of technology on work these theories predict." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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OECD (2024): Using AI in the workplace : Opportunities, risks and policy responses. (OECD artificial intelligence papers 11), Paris, 15 S. DOI:10.1787/73d417f9-en

Abstract

"AI can bring significant benefits to the workplace. In the OECD AI surveys of employers and workers, four in five workers say that AI improved their performance at work and three in five say that it increased their enjoyment of work. But the benefits of AI depend on addressing the associated risks. Taking the effect of AI into account, occupations at highest risk of automation account for about 27% of employment in OECD countries. Workers also express concerns around increased work intensity, the collection and use of data, and increasing inequality. To support the adoption of trustworthy AI in the workplace, this policy paper identifies the main risks that need to be addressed when using AI in the workplace. It identifies the main policy gaps and offers possible policy avenues specific to labour markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Simon Johnson (2023): Rebalancing AI. In: Finance and development, S. 26-29.

Abstract

"Optimistic forecasts regarding the growth implications of AI abound. AI adoption could boost productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points per year over a 10-year period and raise global GDP by 7 percent ($7 trillion in additional output), according to Goldman Sachs. Industry insiders offer even more excited estimates, including a supposed 10 percent chance of an “explosive growth” scenario, with global output rising more than 30 percent a year. All this techno-optimism draws on the “productivity bandwagon”: a deep-rooted belief that technological change— including automation—drives higher productivity, which raises net wages and generates shared prosperity. Such optimism is at odds with the historical record and seems particularly inappropriate for the current path of “just let AI happen,” which focuses primarily on automation (replacing people). We must recognize that there is no singular, inevitable path of development for new technology. And, assuming that the goal is to sustainably improve economic outcomes for more people, what policies would put AI development on the right path, with greater focus on enhancing what all workers can do?" (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron, Hans R. A. Koster & Ceren Ozgen (2023): Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31009), Cambridge, Mass, 60 S.

Abstract

"We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms and negative outcomes on competitors in the same industry. Our worker-level results show that directly-affected workers (e.g., blue-collar workers performing routine or replaceable tasks) face lower earnings and employment rates, while other workers indirectly gain from robot adoption. We also find that the negative effects from competitors' robot adoption load on directly-affected workers, while other workers benefit from this industry-level robot adoption. Overall, our results highlight the uneven effects of automation on the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Agarwal, Ayushi & Sreejith Alathur (2023): Metaverse revolution and the digital transformation: intersectional analysis of Industry 5.0. In: Transforming Government : People, Process and Policy, Jg. 17, H. 4, S. 688-707. DOI:10.1108/TG-03-2023-0036

Abstract

"Purpose: This study aims to investigate metaverse elements affecting digital transformation and examine how the metaverses ’ enabled digital transformation affects Industry 5.0. Design/methodology/approach This paper adopts intersectional research methodologies to understand how metaverse technologies facilitate digital transformation and contribute to Industry 5.0. The Metaverse literature is bibliometrically analyzed to identify the intersection of digital transformation and components of Industry 5.0. Findings The conceptualization of the metaverse, its ecosystem and its enabling technologies are consistent with the human-centric, resilient and sustainable vision of the industrial revolution. The findings show that scientific research into digital transformation contributes to refining potential conflicts and tensions that may arise at the intersection of the metaverse and Industry 5.0. Research limitations/implications Study have significant implications for digital transformation research, as transformation studies help to fine-tune emerging technologies such as the metaverse for the industrial revolution. Based on the findings, the authors have provided a threat model for the Sustainable Metaverse Revolution. Social implications The utility of metaverse technologies in industrial revolutions necessitates the formulation of business model policies that promote the metaverse-enabled digital transformation. Policy recommendations for integrated development approaches are also provided in this paper. Originality/value The metaverse-enabled digital transformation and its implications for the industrial revolution are less reported. The current study addresses the importance of such intersectional studies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Agrawal, Ajay K., Joshua S. Gans & Avi Goldfarb (2023): The Turing Transformation: Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence Augmentation, and Skill Premiums. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31767), Cambridge, Mass, 12 S.

Abstract

"We ask whether a technical objective of using human performance of tasks as a benchmark for AI performance will result in the negative outcomes highlighted in prior work in terms of jobs and inequality. Instead, we argue that task automation, especially when driven by AI advances, can enhance job prospects and potentially widen the scope for employment of many workers. The neglected mechanism we highlight is the potential for changes in the skill premium where AI automation of tasks exogenously improves the value of the skills of many workers, expands the pool of available workers to perform other tasks, and, in the process, increases labor income and potentially reduces inequality. We label this possibility the “Turing Transformation.” As such, we argue that AI researchers and policymakers should not focus on the technical aspects of AI applications and whether they are directed at automating human-performed tasks or not and, instead, focus on the outcomes of AI research. In so doing, our goal is not to diminish human-centric AI research as a laudable goal. Instead, we want to note that AI research that uses a human-task template with a goal to automate that task can often augment human performance of other tasks and whole jobs. The distributional effects of technology depend more on which workers have tasks that get automated than on the fact of automation per se." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Albanesi, Stefania, Antonio Dias da Silva, Juan F. Jimeno, Ana Lamo & Alena Wabitsch (2023): New Technologies and Jobs in Europe. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16227), Bonn, 58 S.

Abstract

"We examine the link between labour market developments and new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and software in 16 European countries over the period 2011- 2019. Using data for occupations at the 3-digit level in Europe, we find that on average employment shares have increased in occupations more exposed to AI. This is particularly the case for occupations with a relatively higher proportion of younger and skilled workers. This evidence is in line with the Skill Biased Technological Change theory. While there exists heterogeneity across countries, only very few countries show a decline in employment shares of occupations more exposed to AI-enabled automation. Country heterogeneity for this result seems to be linked to the pace of technology diffusion and education, but also to the level of product market regulation (competition) and employment protection laws. In contrast to the findings for employment, we find little evidence for a relationship between wages and potential exposures to new technologies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Cäcilia Lipowski, Guido Neidhöfer & Ulrich Zierahn-Weilage (2023): Computers as Stepping Stones? Technological Change and Equality of Labor Market Opportunities. In: Journal of labor economics online erschienen am 21.08.2023, S. 1-41. DOI:10.1086/727490

Abstract

"This paper analyzes whether technological change improves equality of labor market opportunities by increasing the returns to skills relative to the returns to parental background. We find that in Germany during the 1990s, the introduction of computer technologies improved the access to technology-adopting occupations for workers with low-educated parents, and reduced their wage penalty within these occupations. We also show that this significantly contributed to a decline in the overall wage penalty experienced by workers from disadvantaged parental back-grounds over this time period. Competing mechanisms, such as skill-specific labor supply shocks and skill-upgrading, do not explain these findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Avery, Mallory, Andreas Leibbrandt & Joseph Vecci (2023): Does Artificial Intelligence Help or Hurt Gender Diversity? Evidence from Two Field Experiments on Recruitment in Tech. (Discussion paper / Monash University, Department of Economics 2023-09), Clayton, 69 S.

Abstract

"The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in recruitment is rapidly increasing and drastically changing how people apply to jobs and how applications are reviewed. In this paper, we use two field experiments to study how AI in recruitment impacts gender diversity in the male-dominated technology sector, both overall and separately for labor supply and demand. We find that the use of AI in recruitment changes the gender distribution of potential hires, in some cases more than doubling the fraction of top applicants that are women. This change is generated by better outcomes for women in both supply and demand. On the supply side, we observe that the use of AI reduces the gender gap in application completion rates. Complementary survey evidence suggests that this is driven by female jobseekers believing that there is less bias in recruitment when assessed by AI instead of human evaluators. On the demand side, we find that providing evaluators with applicants' AI scores closes the gender gap in assessments that otherwise disadvantage female applicants. Finally, we show that the AI tool would have to be substantially biased against women to result in a lower level of gender diversity than found without AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Becker, Marco, Carl Heinz Daube & Ernst Reinking (2023): Industrie 5.0. (EconStor Preprints 270296), Kiel, 12 S.

Abstract

"Spätestens seit der Etablierung von ChatGPT als eine für die breite Masse sowohl der Unternehmen als auch der Bevölkerung gleichermaßen interessante Anwendung der Künstlichen Intelligenz im November 2022 neigt sich die Epoche der Industrie 4.0 dem Ende entgegen. In diesem Working Paper werden die Grenzen der Industrie 4.0 aufgezeigt und die Potenziale der Industrie 5.0 analysiert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Berg, Janine, Francis Green, Laura Nurski & David A. Spencer (2023): Risks to job quality from digital technologies: Are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge? In: European journal of industrial relations, Jg. 29, H. 4, S. 347-365. DOI:10.1177/09596801231178904

Abstract

"We examine job quality effects of new digital technologies, using the European frame of seven job quality domains: Pay, Working Time Quality, Prospects, Skills and Discretion, Work Intensity, Social Environment, and Physical Environment. Theoretical effects are ambivalent across all domains. The analysis of these effects confirms that digital technologies can both improve and harm job quality depending on how they are used. In light of this analysis and to think through the challenge of regulating digital technologies, we review emerging regulations across several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we argue that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application of data protection legislation to the regulation of job quality. Overall, the paper extends debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, on to a consideration of job quality more broadly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bertschek, Irene (2023): Jetzt bloß nicht den Anschluss verlieren! – Status quo, Potenziale und Herausforderungen von Künstlicher Intelligenz. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 103, H. 8, S. 518-520. DOI:10.2478/wd-2023-0149

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to be the next general purpose technology. The U.S. and China are important players in the development of AI. Germany has a vibrant AI startup scene and is among the first third of EU countries in applying AI technologies. In order not to lose touch with international developments, Germany should work toward creating research- and innovation-friendly framework conditions. Appropriate measures include improving data availability, building AI expertise and enabling flexible regulation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Blien, Uwe, Oliver Ludewig & Anja Rossen (2023): Contradictory effects of technological change across developed countries. In: Review of International Economics, Jg. 31, H. 2, S. 580-608., 2022-08-31. DOI:10.1111/roie.12638

Abstract

"Will productivity gains lead to technological unemployment in a region or to new prosperity? In our article, we formally show that under general assumptions the price elasticity of demand on product markets is decisive: technological change leads to employment growth if product demand is elastic and it leads to employment decline if product demand is inelastic. In our empirical analysis, we use industry-level time series data on output, prices, employment, wages, and national income for nine countries (including Germany, UK, USA) to estimate aggregate Marshallian product demand functions based on IV regressions and state space models with time-varying coefficients. The resulting income and price elasticities are used as inputs in a second step in which we estimate the employment effects of productivity changes as interactions with the elasticities. The results correspond to theoretical expectations: demand is generally inelastic and the employment effect of technological progress is therefore moderately negative." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

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Bogusz, Honorata, Anna Matysiak & Michaela Kreyenfeld (2023): Structural Labour Market Change, Cognitive Work, and Fertility in Germany. (Working papers / Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw 2023-08), Warsaw, 44 S.

Abstract

"Technological change and globalisation have been transforming the structure of labour demand in favour of workers performing cognitive tasks. Even though past research has found that labour force participation is an important determinant of fertility behaviour, few studies have addressed the fertility effects of the long-term structural changes of labour market. To fill this gap, we measure the cognitive task content of work at the occupation level using data from the Employment Survey of the German Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BiBB). We link this contextual information with employment and fertility histories of women and men from the German Socio-Economic Panel 1984-2018 (GSOEP). With event history models, we find that fertility transitions of men working in occupations characterised by high cognitive task intensity are accelerated. We also observe elevated birth risks among women in occupations requiring cognitive labour. However, this pattern is more ambiguous, as we find that non-working women also experience elevated birth rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, Rosario Crinò, Gino Gancia & Ioannis Papadakis (2023): Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from US Commuting Zones. (CESifo working paper 10685), München, 41 S.

Abstract

"We study the effect of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on employment across US commuting zones over the period 2000-2020. A simple model shows that AI can automate jobs or complement workers, and illustrates how to estimate its effect by exploiting variation in a novel measure of local exposure to AI: job growth in AI-related professions built from detailed occupational data. Using a shift-share instrument that combines industry-level AI adoption with local industry employment, we estimate robust negative effects of AI exposure on employment across commuting zones and time. We find that AI's impact is different from other capital and technologies, and that it works through services more than manufacturing. Moreover, the employment effect is especially negative for low-skill and production workers, while it turns positive for workers at the top of the wage distribution. These results are consistent with the view that AI has contributed to the automation of jobs and to widen inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bowlus, Audra, Lance Lochner, Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu (2023): Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change. The Canonical Model Revisited. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 58, H. 6, S. 1783-1819. DOI:10.3368/jhr.0617-8889r1

Abstract

"While influential, the canonical supply–demand model of the wage returns to skill has faced challenges, including theoretically wrong-signed elasticities of substitution, counterintuitive paths for skill-biased technical change (SBTC), and an inability to account for observed deviations in college premia for younger versus older workers. We show that using improved estimates of skill prices and supplies that account for variation in skills across cohorts helps to explain the college premium differences between younger versus older workers and produces better out-of-sample predictions, positive elasticities of substitution between high- and low-skill workers, and a more modest role for SBTC. We further show that accounting for recession-induced jumps and trend adjustments in SBTC and linking SBTC to direct measures of information technology investment expenditures yield an improved fit, no puzzling slowdown in SBTC during the early 1990s, and a higher elasticity of substitution between high- and low-skill workers than previous ad hoc assumptions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

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Brall, Franziska & Ramona Schmid (2023): Automation, Robots and Wage Inequality in Germany. A decomposition Analysis. In: Labour, Jg. 37, H. 1, S. 33-95. DOI:10.1111/labr.12236

Abstract

"We conduct a decomposition analysis based on recentred influence function (RIF) regressions to disentangle the relative importance of automation and robotization for wage inequality in the manufacturing sector in Germany between 1996 and 2017. Our measure of automation threat combines occupation-specific scores of automation risk with sector-specific robot densities. We find that besides changes in the composition of individual characteristics, structural shifts among different automation threat groups are a non-negligible factor associated with wage inequality between 1996 and 2017. Moreover, the increase in wage dispersion among the different automation threat groups has contributed significantly to higher wage inequality in the 1990s and 2000s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

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Broecke, Stijn, Marguerita Lane & Morgan Williams (2023): The impact of AI on the workplace: Main findings from the OECD AI surveys of employers and workers. (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 288), Paris, 156 S. DOI:10.1787/ea0a0fe1-en

Abstract

"New OECD surveys of employers and workers in the manufacturing and finance sectors of seven countries shed new light on the impact that Artificial Intelligence has on the workplace —an under-researched area to date due to lack of data. The findings suggest that both workers and their employers are generally very positive about the impact of AI on performance and working conditions. However, there are also concerns, including about job loss—an issue that should be closely monitored. The surveys also indicate that, while many workers trust their employers when it comes to the implementation of AI in the workplace, more can be done to improve trust. In particular, the surveys show that both training and worker consultation are associated with better outcomes for workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brynjolfsson, Erik & Gabriel Unger (2023): The macroeconomics of artificial intelligence. In: Finance and development, S. 20-25.

Abstract

"Economists have a poor track record of predicting the future. And Silicon Valley repeatedly cycles through hope and disappointment over the next big technology. So a healthy skepticism toward any pronouncements about how artificial intelligence will change the economy is justified. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to take seriously the growing potential of AI—systems that exhibit intelligent behavior, such as learning, reasoning, and problem-solving —to transform the economy, especially given the astonishing technica ladvances of the past year. AI may affect society in a number of areas besides the economy—including national security, politics, and culture. But in this article, we focus on the implications of AI on three broad areas of macroeconomic interest: productivity growth, the labor market, and industrial concentration. AI does not have a predetermined future. It can develop in very different directions. The particular future that emerges will be a consequence of many things, including technological and policy decisions made today. For each area, we present a fork in the road: two paths that lead to very different futures for AI and the economy. In each case, the bad future is the path of least resistance. Getting to the better future will require good policy—including • Creative policy experiments • A set of positive goals for what society wants from AI, not just negative outcomes to be avoided • Understanding that the technological possibilities of AI are deeply uncertain and rapidly evolving and that society must be flexible in evolving with them." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brynjolfsson, Erik, Danielle Li & Lindsey R. Raymond (2023): Generative AI at Work. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31161), Cambridge, Mass, 56 S.

Abstract

"We study the staggered introduction of a generative AI-based conversational assistant using data from 5,179 customer support agents. Access to the tool increases productivity, as measured by issues resolved per hour, by 14 percent on average, with the greatest impact on novice and low-skilled workers, and minimal impact on experienced and highly skilled workers. We provide suggestive evidence that the AI model disseminates the potentially tacit knowledge of more able workers and helps newer workers move down the experience curve. In addition, we show that AI assistance improves customer sentiment, reduces requests for managerial intervention, and improves employee retention." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brühl, Volker (2023): Künstliche Intelligenz – wo stehen wir in Deutschland? In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 103, H. 8, S. 521-524. DOI:10.2478/wd-2023-0150

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) is widely regarded as a technology which will impact the future competitiveness of the German economy. Looking at the research productivity of German scientists and universities in AI, we find that Germany definitively belongs to the top performers in AI research globally, although the United States and China are somewhat ahead. This is not surprising taking into account the sheer size of their talent pools. Furthermore, the majority of promising AI startups are based in the United States, while Germany is clearly underrepresented in the group of excellent AI startups given Germany’s excellence in AI research. Hence, it is obviously more challenging for Germany to translate research excellence into successful entrepreneurship." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Buch, Tanja, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Michael Stops & Andrea Stöckmann (2023): Kompetenzanforderungen in Informatik-, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologieberufen – Ergebnisse aus dem Kompetenz-Kompass Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Tabellenband). (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nord 05/2023), Nürnberg, 42 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.REN.2305

Abstract

"Das Wissen um Kompetenzen, die für die Ausübung eines Berufs notwendig sind, ist eine wichtige Informationsgrundlage für das Handeln verschiedener Akteur*innen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. In diesem Tabellenband stellen wir Informationen über die fachlichen und überfachlichen Kompetenzen zur Verfügung, die von Unternehmen in Stellenanzeigen für Informatik-, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologieberufe (IKT-Berufe) in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern formuliert wurden. Neben Informationen zu den Berufen insgesamt werden die Kompetenzanforderungen für verschiedene Anforderungsniveaus innerhalb der Berufe ausgewiesen. So lassen sich Unterschiede in den Kompetenzanforderungen zwischen den IKT-Berufen wie auch zwischen verschiedenen Anforderungsniveaus identifizieren. Gleichzeitig können fachliche und überfachliche Fähigkeiten und Kenntnisse ermittelt werden, die in mehreren IKT-Berufsgruppen und über verschiedene Anforderungsniveaus hinweg eine hohe Relevanz haben. Ein Vergleich mit den im bundesweiten Durchschnitt geforderten Kompetenzanforderungen zeigt, ob regionale Besonderheiten in den Kompetenzanforderungen vorliegen. Die in diesem Tabellenband zusammengefassten Informationen sollen helfen, regionsspezifisch bedarfsgerechte und passgenaue Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen zu planen und in angemessenem Umfang anzubieten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Buch, Tanja, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Michael Stops & Andrea Stöckmann (2023): Kompetenzanforderungen in Informatik-, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologieberufen – Ergebnisse aus dem Kompetenz-Kompass Schleswig-Holstein (Tabellenband). (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Nord 04/2023), Nürnberg, 42 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.REN.2304

Abstract

"Das Wissen um Kompetenzen, die für die Ausübung eines Berufs notwendig sind, ist eine wichtige Informationsgrundlage für das Handeln verschiedener Akteur*innen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. In diesem Tabellenband stellen wir Informationen über die fachlichen und überfachlichen Kompetenzen zur Verfügung, die von Unternehmen in Stellenanzeigen für Informatik-, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologieberufe (IKT-Berufe) in Schleswig-Holstein formuliert wurden. Neben Informationen zu den Berufen insgesamt werden die Kompetenzanforderungen für verschiedene Anforderungsniveaus innerhalb der Berufe ausgewiesen. So lassen sich Unterschiede in den Kompetenzanforderungen zwischen den IKT-Berufen wie auch zwischen verschiedenen Anforderungsniveaus identifizieren. Gleichzeitig können fachliche und überfachliche Fähigkeiten und Kenntnisse ermittelt werden, die in mehreren IKT-Berufsgruppen und über verschiedene Anforderungsniveaus hinweg eine hohe Relevanz haben. Ein Vergleich mit den im bundesweiten Durchschnitt geforderten Kompetenzanforderungen zeigt, ob regionale Besonderheiten in den Kompetenzanforderungen vorliegen. Die in diesem Tabellenband zusammengefassten Informationen sollen helfen, regionsspezifisch bedarfsgerechte und passgenaue Qualifizierungsmaßnahmen zu planen und in angemessenem Umfang anzubieten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Buch, Tanja, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Michael Stops & Andrea Stöckmann (2023): Kompetenzanforderungen in ausgewählten Berufen – Ergebnisse aus dem Kompetenz-Kompass Hamburg (Tabellenband). Nürnberg, 38 S.

Abstract

"Digitalisierung und ökologische Transformation gehen mit einer Änderung der Kompetenzanforderungen einher. Für die technischen Berufe in Hamburg haben Buch et al. (2023a) eine Studie zu den in Stellenanzeigen formulierten Kompetenzanforderungen vorgelegt. Für die Berufe der Informatik, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT-Berufe) liegt ein entsprechender Tabellenband vor (Buch et al. 2023b). Der vorliegende nicht veröffentlichte Tabellenband ergänzt die genannten Publikationen um Kompetenzanforderungen in vier weiteren Berufsgruppen: Hochbau; Lagerwirtschaft, Post, Zustellung, Güterumschlag; Immobilienwirtschaft, Facility-Management; Werbung und Marketing. Bei der Dokumentation der Kompetenzanforderungen unterscheiden wir auch nach dem Anforderungsniveau der ausgeschriebenen Stellen. Im Kapitel 2 beschreiben wir die Datenbasis und die Methodik der Analyse ausführlicher. In den Kapiteln 3 bis 6 erfolgt dann die detaillierte Darstellung der Kompetenzbedarfe in den einzelnen ausgewählten Berufsgruppen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Buch, Tanja, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Michael Stops & Andrea Stöckmann (2023): Kompetenzanforderungen in ausgewählten Berufen – Ergebnisse aus dem Kompetenz-Kompass Schleswig-Holstein (Tabellenband). Nürnberg, 38 S.

Abstract

"Für die technischen Berufe in Schleswig-Holstein haben Buch et al. (2023a) eine Studie zu den in Stellenanzeigen formulierten Kompetenzanforderungen vorgelegt. Für die Berufe der Informatik-, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT-Berufe) liegt ein entsprechender Tabellenband vor (Buch et al. 2023b). Der vorliegende nicht veröffentlichte Tabellenband ergänzt die genannten Publikationen um Kompetenzanforderungen in vier weiteren Berufsgruppen: Hochbau; Lagerwirtschaft, Post, Zustellung, Güterumschlag; Immobilienwirtschaft, Facility-Management; Werbung und Marketing. Bei der Dokumentation der Kompetenzanforderungen unterscheiden wir auch nach dem Anforderungsniveau der ausgeschriebenen Stellen. Zur Einordnung der Resultate verweisen wir auf die Studie von Buch et al. (2023a) für die technischen Berufe. Im Kapitel 2 beschreiben wir die Datenbasis und die Methodik der Analyse ausführlicher. In den Kapiteln 3 bis 6 erfolgt dann die detaillierte Darstellung der Kompetenzbedarfe in den einzelnen Berufsgruppen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Buch, Tanja, Annekatrin Niebuhr, Michael Stops & Andrea Stöckmann (2023): Kompetenzanforderungen in ausgewählten Berufen – Ergebnisse aus dem Kompetenz-Kompass Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Tabellenband). Nürnberg, 39 S.

Abstract

"Digitalisierung und ökologische Transformation gehen mit einer Änderung der Kompetenzanforderungen einher. Für die technischen Berufe in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern haben Buch et al. (2023a) eine Studie zu den in Stellenanzeigen formulierten Kompetenzanforderungen vorgelegt. Für die Berufe der Informatik-, Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT-Berufe) liegt ein entsprechender Tabellenband vor (Buch et al. 2023b). Der vorliegende nicht veröffentlichte Tabellenband ergänzt die genannten Publikationen um Kompetenzanforderungen in vier weiteren Berufsgruppen: Hochbau; Lagerwirtschaft, Post, Zustellung, Güterumschlag; Immobilienwirtschaft, Facility-Management; Werbung und Marketing. Bei der Dokumentation der Kompetenzanforderungen unterscheiden wir auch nach dem Anforderungsniveau der ausgeschriebenen Stellen. Zur Einordnung der Resultate verweisen wir auf die Studie von Buch et al. (2023a) für die technischen Berufe. Im Kapitel 2 beschreiben wir die Datenbasis und die Methodik der Analyse ausführlicher. In den Kapiteln 3 bis 6 erfolgt dann die detaillierte Darstellung der Kompetenzbedarfe in den einzelnen Berufsgruppen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bughin, Jacques (2023): Does artificial intelligence kill employment growth: the missing link of corporate AI posture. In: Frontiers in artificial intelligence, Jg. 6. DOI:10.3389/frai.2023.1239466

Abstract

"Introduction An intense debate has been on-going about how artificial intelligence (AI) technology investments have an impact on employment. The debate has often focused on the potential of AI for human task automation, omitting the strategic incentive for firms to cooperate with their workers as to exploit AI technologies for the most relevant benefit of new product and service innovation. Method We calibrate an empirical probit regression model of how changes in employment relate to AI diffusion, based on formalizing a game-theoretical model of a firm exploiting the twin role of AI innovation and AI automation for both absolute and competitive advantage. Results The theoretical game-theory prediction is that employment following AI technology adoption is not negative, and ultimately depends on how AI leads to new success in innovation, competition which defines the competitive reward of innovation and profit sharing between workers and firms. Our estimation, is based on a global survey of 3,000 large companies across 10 countries, demonstrates that a firm employment growth depends on two strategic postures, that is, the firm relative maturity of AI adoption as well as its relative bias toward AI-based product innovation. Discussion The contribution of this research is to highlight the twin role of firm and workers in shaping how technology will affect employment. AI in particular marries the potential of task automation with even more potential for expansion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Burda-Zoyke, Andrea & Nicole Heesch (2023): Digitale Transformationen in der (kaufmännischen) Arbeitswelt: Implikationen für die berufliche Orientierung von Jugendlichen. In: Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik - online, Jg. 45, S. 35.

Abstract

"Das Ziel des Beitrags ist es, die Merkmale der kaufmännischen Arbeitswelt, die sich durch digitale Transformationen grundlegend verändert, zu identifizieren. Gleichzeitig sollen die damit verbundenen Kompetenzerwartungen und -anforderungen herausgearbeitet werden. Auf dieser Grundlage werden bedeutsame Implikationen für die berufliche Orientierung, fokussiert für Jugendliche in der gymnasialen Oberstufe, abgeleitet. Dafür werden 56 Studien und theoretische Beiträge in einer kategoriengeleiteten Literaturanalyse ausgewertet. Zur Herausarbeitung der Kompetenzanforderungen bilden das Modell der Handlungskompetenz der KMK und die sechs Kompetenzbereiche der KMK-Strategie für Bildung in der digitalen Welt den Rahmen. Zwei fiktive, typische Tätigkeitsprofile aus den Funktionsbereichen Beschaffung (Industriekaufleute) und Personal, die für diese Zielgruppe in Frage kommen könnten, werden exemplarisch abgeleitet. Unter Anwendung der Theorien von Lent, Brown und Hackett sowie Butz und Deeken ergeben sich facettenreiche Implikationen für die berufliche Orientierung." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Buxmann, Peter & Anne Zöll (2023): Ökonomische Effekte von ChatGPT. In: Controlling & Management Review, Jg. 67, H. 5, S. 16-21. DOI:10.1007/s12176-023-1066-4

Abstract

Der Beitrag beleuchtet aus ökonomischer Perspektive die Auswirkungen des auf verschiedenen Algorithmen des maschinellen Lernens beruhenden Chatbots ChatGPT sowie die Potenziale einer Zusammenarbeit zwischen Menschen und Künstlicher Intelligenz. Die bei einer ökonomischen Bewertung der Nutzung digitaler Technologien unterschiedenen substitutiven Effekte (Kosten- sowie Zeiteinsparungen) und komplementären Effekte (Verbesserung der Qualität) lassen sich auch bei der Anwendung von ChatGPT und anderen Sprachmodellen feststellen. Referiert werden hierzu u.a. die Ergebnisse einer Studie des 'Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), die die verschiedenen Anwendungsgebiete aufzeigt und die ökonomischen Vorteile quantifiziert. Entgegen der in der Öffentlichkeit geäußerten Befürchtung einer massiven Vernichtung von Arbeitsplätzen oder Horror-Szenarien durch unkontrollierbare Verselbständigungen der KI heben die Autoren eine andere Perspektive hervor: Die Zusammenarbeit zwischen Menschen und KI (Stichwort 'hybride Intelligenz') kann die Entscheidungsfindung (etwa Strategie- und Kaufentscheidungen) beschleunigen und durch den gegenseitigen Austausch und das gegenseitige Lernen voneinander verbessern. Noch ist nicht das ganze Potenzial dieser 'Basistechnologie des 21. Jahrhunderts' zu ermessen, beispielhaft können aber schon heute die Anwendungsbereiche medizinische Diagnostik, Texterstellung und Softwareentwicklung genannt werden. (IAB)

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Büchel, Jan, Jan Engler & Armin Mertens (2023): KI-Einsatzbereiche in Deutschland. Eine Analyse von KI-Stellenanzeigen : Gutachten im Projekt „Entwicklung und Messung der Digitalisierung der Wirtschaft am Standort Deutschland". Berlin, 31 S.

Abstract

"Zwei Studien untersuchten bereits anhand von KI-Stellenanzeigen, wie die KI-Bedarfe in Deutschland einerseits regional verteilt sind (Büchel/Mertens, 2022) und andererseits welche Anforderungsprofile neue Beschäftigte mit KI-Kompetenzen erfüllen sollten (ebenda, 2021). Unklar bleibt bislang jedoch, für welche Zwecke ausschreibende Unternehmen KI-Kompetenzen primär benötigen und einsetzen möchten. Erkenntnisse darüber schaffen eine größere Transparenz darüber, wofür Unternehmen KI-Talente überhaupt einsetzen und an welchen Stellen im Unternehmen KI relevant ist. Damit ergänzt die vorliegende Analyse Studien zum Einsatz von KI in Unternehmen (Rammer, 2020) und zu KI-Gründungen in Deutschland (Rammer, 2022). Im Folgenden wird untersucht, welche Einsatzbereiche in aktuellen KI-Stellenanzeigen relevant sind, wie häufig sie jeweils auftreten und wie sich die Bedarfe in den einzelnen Einsatzbereichen im Zeitverlauf entwickeln. Dafür erläutert Abschnitt 2 zunächst das methodische Vorgehen, mit dem die Autoren selbst mithilfe von KI, beziehungsweise einer Kombination aus einem Machine-Learning-Modell und einem regelbasierten Ansatz, automatisiert KI-Einsatzbereiche in jeder der etwa 73.000 KI-Stellenanzeigen aus den ersten Quartalen der Jahre 2019 bis 2023 identifizieren konnten. Die KI-Einsatzbereiche, die für die ausschreibenden Unternehmen relevant sind, werden in Kapitel 3 analysiert. Es wird zudem untersucht, wie hoch die KIBedarfe pro Einsatzbereich sind sowie welche typischen Überschneidungen und regionalen Besonderheiten auftreten. Kapitel 4 gibt ein Fazit." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Calvino, Flavio & Luca Fontanelli (2023): A portrait of AI adopters across countries: Firm characteristics, assets' complementarities and productivity. (OECD science, technology and industry working papers 2023,02), Paris, 85 S. DOI:10.1787/0fb79bb9-en

Abstract

"This report analyses the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in firms across 11 countries. Based on harmonised statistical code (AI diffuse) applied to official firm-level surveys, it finds that the use of AI is prevalent in ICT and Professional Services and more widespread across large – and to some extent across young – firms. AI users tend to be more productive, especially the largest ones. Complementary assets, including ICT skills, high-speed digital infrastructure, and the use of other digital technologies, which are significantly related to the use of AI, appear to play a critical role in the productivity advantages of AI users." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carbonero, Francesco, Enzo Weber & Christian J. Offermanns (2023): The Fall of the Labor Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Hiring Frictions. In: Review of Economic Dynamics, Jg. 49, S. 251-268., 2022-01-09. DOI:10.1016/j.red.2022.09.001

Abstract

"Die Veränderungen in der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung erhalten in der Forschung viel Aufmerksamkeit. Wir dokumentieren einen durchschnittlichen Rückgang des labour share (Anteil des Faktors Arbeit an der Einkommensverteilung) von 8 Prozentpunkten für acht europäische Länder und die USA zwischen 1980 und 2007. Wir untersuchen theoretisch und empirisch zwei Mechanismen: Substitution zwischen Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT) und Arbeit sowie Friktionen bei Beschäftigungsanpassungen. Wir finden, dass Substitution zwischen IKT und Arbeit wesentlich den Rückgang des labour share erklären kann. Wenn Arbeitsmarktfriktionen berücksichtigt werden, übernehmen diese allerdings einen Teil der Erklärungskraft. Insbesondere spielen Einstellungskosten in Europa eine größere Rolle als in den USA. Schließlich wird die Subsitutionselastizität zwischen IKT und Arbeit als Funktion institutioneller und struktureller Variablen modelliert und festgestellt, dass sie mit dem Anteil von Routine-Berufen positiv und mit dem Anteil hochqualifizierter Arbeiter negativ korreliert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Cardi, Olivier & Romain Restout (2023): Why Hours Worked Decline Less after Technology Shocks? (Economics working paper series / The Department of Economics, Lancaster University Management School 2023,07), Lancaster, 187 S.

Abstract

"The contractionary effect of aggregate technology shocks on hours worked has shrunk over time in OECD countries. Our estimates suggest that this finding can be attributed to the increasing share of the variance of technology improvements driven by asymmetric technology shocks across sectors. While technology improvements uniformly distributed across sectors are found empirically to give rise to a dramatic decline in total hours worked, asymmetric technology shocks do the opposite. By depreciating non-traded prices, symmetric technology shocks generate a contractionary effect on non-traded labor and thus on total hours. In contrast, by appreciating non-traded prices, technological change concentrated toward traded industries puts upward pressure on wages which has a strong expansionary effect on total hours worked. A two-sector open economy model with frictions into the movements of inputs can reproduce the time-increasing response of both total and sectoral hours worked we estimate empirically once we allow for factor-biased technological change and we let the share of asymmetric technology shocks increase over time. A model with endogenous technology decisions reveals that two-third of the progression of asymmetric technology shocks is driven by greater exposition of traded industries to the international stock of knowledge." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cardon, Peter W., Kristen Getchell, Stephen Carradini, Carolin Fleischmann & James Stapp (2023): Generative AI in the Workplace: Employee Perspectives of ChatGPT Benefits and Organizational Policies. (SocArXiv papers), [Charlottesville, VA], 17 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/b3ezy

Abstract

"Key Findings and Conclusions : Many US workers in this sample are using ChatGPT for professional purposes. Roughly the following percentages have already used ChatGPT in the following ways: 42% for researching a topic or generating ideas. 32% for drafting messages. 26% for drafting longer documents, such as reports. 22% for editing text. Many US workers in this sample believe ChatGPT can help them become better communicators. This is particularly the case for executives and managers. Roughly two thirds of executives (67%) and managers (64%) believe generative AI can help them communicate more effectively. Early adopters of ChatGPT in this sample hold much different views of generative AI than do non-users of ChatGPT. Early adopters hold the following distinctive views: They are much more likely to think AI is good for society than non-users (64% to 22%) and believe it will make them more productive (82% for early adopters; 26% for non-users); however, they are also more likely to worry about the ethical implications of AI (68% to 55%) in the workplace and worry that their own job will be replaced by AI (41% to 20%). They are much more likely to think generative AI will support them in their work. About 85% of early adopters say that ChatGPT can help them generate ideas for work compared to about 50% of non-users. About 73% of early adopters say it can improve the quality of their work compared to 42% of non-users. About 74% of early adopters say it can help them communicate more effectively compared to 41% of non-users. Executives and managers are slightly more likely to be enthusiastic about the benefits. Employees in organizations with generative AI policies view these policies positively. Those who are aware of an organizational policy about generative AI generally believe it has supported more comfort in using ChatGPT for work, has improved trust, has improved efficiency, and has provided legal protections. Those who are early adopters are generally more positive about each of these benefits of organizational policy than those who are non-users of ChatGPT. Most early adopters of generative AI in organizations without generative AI policies want more guidance about ChatGPT use. Most early adopters believe an organizational policy would make them more comfortable using ChatGPT (61%), that it would increase trust (56%), and that it would improve efficiency (66%)." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Carstensen, Tanja (2023): Digitalisierung der Arbeit – eine Zwischenbilanz aus Geschlechterperspektiven. In: WSI-Mitteilungen, Jg. 76, H. 5, S. 374-382. DOI:10.5771/0342-300X-2023-5-374

Abstract

"Die Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt seit der Mitte der 2010er Jahre wurde früh mit weitreichenden Hoffnungen und Befürchtungen für Veränderungen in den Geschlechterverhältnissen diskutiert. Mittlerweile liegen diverse, ein breites Feld an Fragen umspannende empirische Studien vor. Nach einigen Vormerkungen zum Verhältnis von Gender und Technik resümiert der Beitrag die bisherigen Befunde entlang von fünf Themenfeldern, die sich als Schwerpunkte der Digitalisierungsforschung aus Geschlechterperspektiven herausgebildet haben: 1. Ortsflexibilisierung / Homeoffice, 2. Plattformen, 3. Automatisierung und neue Anforderungen, 4. Diskriminierung durch Algorithmen und KI und 5. mangelnde Diversität und (globale) Ungleichheiten in der Technikentwicklung. Die Autorin schließt mit einer Zwischenbilanz dieser bisher vorliegenden Befunde und benennt weiteren Forschungsbedarf." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Caunedo, Julieta, David Jaume & Elisa Keller (2023): Occupational Exposure to Capital-Embodied Technical Change. In: The American economic review, Jg. 113, H. 6, S. 1642-1685. DOI:10.1257/aer.20211478

Abstract

"We study differences in exposure to factor-biased technical change among occupations by providing the first measures of capital-embodied technical change (CETC) and of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor at the occupational level. We document sizable occupational heterogeneity in both measures, but quantitatively, it is the heterogeneity in factor substitutability that fuels workers' exposure to CETC. In a general equilibrium model of worker sorting across occupations, CETC accounts for almost all of the observed labor reallocation in the US between 1984 and 2015. Absent occupational heterogeneity in factor substitutability, CETC accounts for only 17 percent of it." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cavounidis, Costas, Qingyuan Chai, Kevin Lang & Raghav Malhotra (2023): Obsolescence Rents: Teamsters, Truckers, and Impending Innovations. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31743), Cambridge, Mass, 47 S.

Abstract

"We consider large, permanent shocks to individual occupations whose arrival date is uncertain. We are motivated by the advent of self-driving trucks, which will dramatically reduce demand for truck drivers. Using a bare-bones overlapping generations model, we examine an occupation facing obsolescence. We show that workers must be compensated to enter the occupation - receiving what we dub obsolescence rents - with fewer and older workers remaining in the occupation. We investigate the market for teamsters at the dawn of the automotive truck as an á propos parallel to truckers themselves, as self-driving trucks crest the horizon. As widespread adoption of trucks drew nearer, the number of teamsters fell, the occupation became 'grayer', and teamster wages rose, as predicted by the model." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cetrulo, Armanda, Giovanni Dosi, Angelo Moro, Linnea Nelli & Maria Enrica Virgillito (2023): Automation, digitalization and decarbonization in the European automotive industry: a roadmap towards a just transition. (LEM working paper series / Laboratory of Economics and Management 2023,36), Pisa, 30 S.

Abstract

"This position paper outlines the characteristics of the trends at stake in affecting the twin transition in the European automotive industry, and the political economy of the actors behind such transition. We first describe the automation and digitalization processes in the automotive sector and their effects on employment. Possible scenarios are analysed, illustrating actual cases of electrification conversion of some European plants of the key OEMs companies as practical examples to understand the employment effects. We then consider the role of the regulatory push in fostering the transition of the automotive sector towards electrification, highlighting the non-neutrality of the process and the risk of a quite limited space for decarbonization. Finally, we discuss the space and capacity of trade unions' actions to orient the twin transition toward social and climate justice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chrisp, Joe, Aida Garcia-Lazaro & Nick Pearce (2023): Technological chance and growth regimes: Assessing the case for universal basic income in an era declining labour shares. (FRIBIS discussion paper series 2023,1), Freiburg, 60 S.

Abstract

"In recent decades, most OECD countries have seen a significant decline in the labour share, as well as an increase in inequality. The decline in the labour share and the rise in inequality poses several problems for such countries, whether related to distributive justice, economic and social outcomes, such as deficient aggregate income and demand, or democratic politics. In this report, we focus on the role of technological change as a central driver of the decline in the labour share and explore its contingency: both across contexts and across definitions/operationalisations of technology. With respect to the latter, we distinguish between perspectives that place physical capital and investment in automation and ICT at the centre of technological change on the one hand, and the growth of the knowledge economy and intangible capital on the other. Meanwhile, following work by Baccaro and Pontusson (2016), and more recently Hassel and Palier (2021), we utilise the concept of 'growth regimes' to analyse how the effects of technology are mediated and moderated by national political-economic institutions. This approach allows us to test more nuanced arguments about the role of technological change in the decline in the labour share and to discuss the likely effects, and political feasibility, of policy solutions such as universal basic income (UBI) that are often advanced as an answer to increased automation and lower returns to labour. The following issues provide the basis for our research questions: 1. To what extent is technological change responsible for the decline in the labour share? 2. What is the role of growth regimes in moderating the effect of technology on the labour share? 3. Are results consistent across different conceptions and definitions of technological change? 4. What policy solutions are available to tackle these trends and issues? 5. Does technological change strengthen the case for and the feasibility of a universal basic income? This work builds on previous policy briefs and reports by the Institute for Policy Research (IPR) on UBI and technological change, namely the September 2019 report by Dr Luke Martinelli entitled 'Basic income, automation and labour market change' (Martinelli, 2019a). That report summarised the evidence regarding the effects of technology on labour markets and the case for UBI in such a light. Empirical analysis, however, focused on political economy questions concerning the political constituency for a UBI and policy trade-offs in design across EU countries using microsimulation analysis. Here, our empirical strategy is instead focused on questions about the effect of technology on the labour share, enabling us to re-pose the question of how a UBI could serve as a tool for combating growing inequality, income and demand deficiency, and labour market dysfunction in global economies. Future empirical research at the IPR will focus more comprehensively on the fifth and final research question above, namely estimating the macroeconomic effects of a UBI, including one funded using sovereign money. Next, we introduce three central ideas in the report - the decline in the labour share, technological change and growth regimes - before briefly outlining the consequences for policy debates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Czarnitzki, Dirk, Gastón P. Fernández & Christian Rammer (2023): Artificial intelligence and firm-level productivity. In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Jg. 211, S. 188-205. DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.008

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often regarded as the next general-purpose technology with a rapid, penetrating, and far-reaching use over a broad number of industrial sectors. The main feature of new general-purpose technology is to enable new ways of production that may increase productivity. However, to date, only a few studies have investigated the likely productivity effects of AI at the firm-level, presumably due to limited data availability. We exploit unique survey data on firms' adoption of AI technology and estimate its productivity effects with a sample of German firms. We employ both a cross-sectional dataset and a panel database. To address the potential endogeneity of AI adoption, we also implement IV estimators. We find positive and significant associations between the use of AI and firm productivity. This finding holds for different measures of AI usage, i.e., an indicator variable of AI adoption, and the intensity with which firms use AI methods in their business processes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Damioli, Giacomo, Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli (2023): The employment impact of AI technologies among AI innovators. (MSI discussion paper / KU Leuwen 2306),: KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Management, Strategy and Innovation, Leuven 36 S.

Abstract

"This study supports the labour-friendly nature of product innovation among developers of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. GMM-SYS estimates on a worldwide longitudinal dataset covering 3,500 companies that patented inventions related to AI technologies over the period 2000-2016 show a positive and significant impact of AI patent families on employment. The effect is small in magnitude and limited to service sectors and younger firms, which are front-runners of the AI revolution. We also detect some evidence of increasing returns suggesting that innovative companies more focused on AI technologies are those obtaining larger impacts in terms of job creation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Damioli, Giacomo, Vincent Van Roy, Daniel Vertesy & Marco Vivarelli (2023): AI technologies and employment: micro evidence from the supply side. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 30, H. 6, S. 816-821. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2021.2024129

Abstract

"In this work we investigate the possible job-creation impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, focusing on the supply side, where the development of these technologies can be conceived as product innovations in upstream sectors. The empirical analysis is based on a worldwide longitudinal sample (obtained by merging the EPO PATSTAT and BvD-ORBIS databases) of more than 3,500 front-runner companies that patented AI-related inventions over the period 2000–2016. Based on system GMM estimates of dynamic panel models, our results show a positive and significant impact of AI patent families on employment, supporting the labour-friendly nature of AI product innovation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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De Stefano, Valerio & Simon Taes (2023): Algorithmic management and collective bargaining. In: Transfer, Jg. 29, H. 1, S. 21-36. DOI:10.1177/10242589221141055

Abstract

"Dieser Artikel befasst sich mit den Herausforderungen, die durch die Einführung von Management durch Algorithmen und durch künstliche Intelligenz in der Arbeitswelt entstehen. Dabei geht es in erster Linie um die Risiken, die neue Managementtechnologien für grundlegende Rechte und Prinzipien wie Nichtdiskriminierung, Vereinigungsfreiheit und das Recht auf Privatsphäre darstellen. Der Artikel argumentiert, dass Tarifverhandlungen das am besten geeignete Regulierungsinstrument sind, um auf diese Herausforderungen zu reagieren, und dass die aktuellen Rechtsetzungsinitiativen der EU die Rolle von Tarifverhandlungen in diesem Bereich nicht gebührend anerkennen. Der Artikel gibt ebenfalls eine Übersicht über die derzeit laufenden Initiativen von Gewerkschaftsbewegungen in Europa, um das Management durch Algorithmen einzuhegen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Deng, Liuchun, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe & Jens Stegmaier (2023): Robots and Female Employment in German Manufacturing. In: AEA papers and proceedings H. May, S. 224-228., 2023-02-01. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20231040

Abstract

"We analyze the impact of robot adoption on female employment. Our analysis is based on novel micro data on robot use by German manufacturing establishments linked with social security records. An event study analysis for robot adoption shows increased churning among female workers. Whereas hiring rises significantly at robot adoption, separations increase with a smaller magnitude one year later. Overall, employment effects are modestly positive and strongest for medium-qualified women. We find no adverse employment effects for female workers in any of our broad qualification groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Deng, Liuchun, Steffen Müller, Verena Plümpe & Jens Stegmaier (2023): Robots, Occupations, and Worker Age: A Production-unit Analysis of Employment. (IWH-Diskussionspapiere 2023,05), Halle, 45 S.

Abstract

"Wir analysieren die Auswirkungen der Einführung von Robotern auf die Zusammensetzung der Beschäftigung anhand neuer Mikrodaten über den Einsatz von Robotern in deutschen Betrieben des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Verbindung mit weiteren Daten. Unser theoretisches Modell sagt positive Beschäftigungseffekte für die am wenigsten routineintensiven Berufe und für junge Arbeitnehmer voraus, wobei letztere sich besser an den Wandel anpassen können. Eine Event-Study zur Einführung von Robotern findet hierfür Evidenz. Wir finden für keine Berufs- oder Altersgruppe negative Beschäftigungseffekte, aber die Fluktuation unter gering qualifizierten Arbeitnehmern steigt stark an. Wir kommen zu dem Schluss, dass der Verdrängungseffekt von Robotern berufsabhängig, aber altersneutral ist, während der Wiedereinstellungseffekt altersabhängig ist und vor allem jungen Arbeitnehmern zugute kommt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Dicks, Alexander, Martin Ehlert, Insa Grüttgen, Benjamin Schulz & Basha Vicari (2023): ChatGPT, cobots and the like. How new automation technologies are transforming the working world. In: WZB-Mitteilungen H. 180, 2023-05-10.

Abstract

"Artificial intelligence and automation are currently being debated fiercely. How can these new technologies and applications support people in their work? Will jobs be replaced by AI? Fear of job loss due to digitalization and of loss of autonomy is a widespread concern. The aim of the study presented here is to find out how widespread digital assistance systems are, who uses them and how this affects different groups of employees." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dicks, Alexander, Martin Ehlert, Insa Grüttgen, Benjamin Schulz & Basha Vicari (2023): ChatGPT, Cobots & Co. Wie neue Automatisierungstechnologien die Arbeitswelt verändern. In: WZB-Mitteilungen H. 180, 2023-05-10.

Abstract

"Künstliche Intelligenz und Automatisierung werden zur Zeit heftig diskutiert. Wie können diese neuen Technologien und Anwendungen Menschen bei ihrer Arbeit unterstützen? Werden Arbeitsplätze durch KI ersetzt? Die Angst vor Arbeitsplatzverlust durch Digitalisierung und vor Fremdbestimmung ist eine weit verbreitete Sorge. Ziel der hier vorgestellten Studie ist es herauszufinden, wie weit digitale Assistenzsysteme verbreitet sind, wer sie nutzt und wie sich das auf verschiedene Beschäftigtengruppen auswirkt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Doellgast, Virginia, Ian Geer & Anja Kirsch (2023): Fairer Wandel für Arbeitnehmer*innen in der Automobilindustrie? In: H. Proff (Hrsg.) (2023): Towards the New Normal in Mobility, S. 763-775. DOI:10.1007/978-3-658-39438-7_43

Abstract

"Der Wandel hin zur Elektromobilität bedeutet für die Beschäftigten in der Automobilindustrie eine tiefgreifende Transformation. Insgesamt steht ein Abbau von Arbeitsplätzen bevor, der mit einer Verlagerung ihrer geografischen Verteilung und mit neuen Qualifikationsanforderungen einhergeht. Neue Arbeitsplätze entstehen zum Teil in neuen Unternehmen, die nicht gewerkschaftlich organisiert sind, nicht der Tarifbindung unterliegen und keine etablierten betrieblichen Mitbestimmungsstrukturen vorweisen. Inwieweit der Wandel hin zur Elektromobilität fair gestaltet wird, ist aktuell Gegenstand von Auseinandersetzungen zwischen Management, Betriebsräten und Gewerkschaften, die vielerorts konflikthaft, aber auch mit Konzepten, die unter Beteiligung der Arbeitnehmer*innen entwickelt wurden, ausgetragen werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © Springer Gabler)

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Doorley, Karina, Jan Gromadzki, Piotr Lewandowski, Dora Tuda & Philippe Van Kerm (2023): Automation and Income Inequality in Europe. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16499), Bonn, 44 S.

Abstract

"We study the effects of robot penetration on household income inequality in 14 European countries between 2006–2018, a period marked by the rapid adoption of industrial robots. Automation reduced relative hourly wages and employment of more exposed demographic groups, similarly to the results for the United States. Using robot-driven wage and employment shocks as input to the EUROMOD microsimulation model, we find that automation had minor effects on income inequality. Household labour income diversification and tax and welfare policies largely absorbed labour market shocks caused by automation. Transfers played a key role in cushioning the transmission of these shocks to household incomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ehlinger, Eugenia Gonzalez & Fabian Stephany (2023): Skills or Degree? The Rise of Skill-Based Hiring for AI and Green Jobs. (CESifo working paper 10817), München, 37 S.

Abstract

"For emerging professions, such as jobs in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI) or sustainability (green), labor supply does not meet industry demand. In this scenario of labor shortages, our work aims to understand whether employers have started focusing on individual skills rather than on formal qualifications in their recruiting. By analyzing a large time series dataset of around one million online job vacancies between 2019 and 2022 from the UK and drawing on diverse literature on technological change and labor market signalling, we provide evidence that employers have started so-called “skill-based hiring” for AI and green roles, as more flexible hiring practices allow them to increase the available talent pool. In our observation period the demand for AI roles grew twice as much as average labor demand. At the same time, the mention of university education for AI roles declined by 23%, while AI roles advertise five times as many skills as job postings on average. Our analysis also shows that university degrees no longer show an educational premium for AI roles, while for green positions the educational premium persists. In contrast, AI skills have a wage premium of 16%, similar to having a PhD (17%). Our work recommends making use of alternative skill building formats such as apprenticeships, on-the-job training, MOOCs, vocational education and training, micro-certificates, and online bootcamps to use human capital to its full potential and to tackle talent shortages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Engberg, Erik, Michael Koch, Magnus Lodefalk & Sarah Schroeder (2023): Artificial Intelligence, Tasks, Skills and Wages: Worker-Level Evidence from Germany. (Ratio working paper 371), Stockholm, 55 S.

Abstract

"This paper documents novel facts on within-occupation task and skill changes over the past two decades in Germany. In a second step, it reveals a distinct relationship between occupational work content and exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation (robots). Workers in occupations with high AI exposure, perform different activities and face different skill requirements, compared to workers in occupations ex- posed to robots. In a third step, the study uses individual labor market biographies to investigate the impact on wages between 2010 and 2017. Results indicate a wage growth premium in occupations more exposed to AI, contrasting with a wage growth discount in occupations exposed to robots. Finally, the study further explores the dynamic in- fluence of AI exposure on individual wages over time, uncovering positive associations with wages, with nuanced variations across occupational groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Engels, Barbara (2023): Künstliche Intelligenz in der deutschen Wirtschaft: Ohne Digitalisierung und Daten geht nichts. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 103, H. 8, S. 525-529. DOI:10.2478/wd-2023-0151

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds immense potential for enhancing prosperity. However, the adoption of AI in German businesses remains limited, with only 19% of companies utilizing AI in 2022. The successful implementation of AI relies on two key prerequisites: a company’s digitalisation and data economy readiness. The Digitalisation Index reveals slow progress in digitalisation across sectors, indicating a need for increased efforts. Additionally, companies must enhance their data economy readiness to efficiently utilize data for AI applications. Failing to tap into the potential of AI may result in significant competitive disadvantages in the future." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Faißt, Christian, Silke Hamann, Daniel Jahn & Rüdiger Wapler (2023): Strukturwandel in Baden-Württemberg. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Baden-Württemberg 01/2023), Nürnberg, 43 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.REBW.2301

Abstract

"In diesem Bericht wird der Strukturwandel in der Berufslandschaft bzw. dem Anforderungsniveau, der bis 2040 erwartet wird, mit dem Strukturwandel im Zeitraum 1999 bis 2019 verglichen. Demnach hat sich der Strukturwandel in der Vergangenheit stärker vollzogen, als es für die Zukunft erwartet wird. Die größten Veränderungen im Hinblick auf die Berufe werden zukünftig einerseits im medizinischen Bereich und in IT-Berufen mit stark steigenden Beschäftigtenanteilen erwartet. Andererseits wird vor allem für den Metallbereich und die „Maschinen- und Fahrzeugtechnikberufe“ erwartet, dass ihre Beschäftigtenanteile zurückgehen. Es ist allerdings zu erwarten, dass in nahezu allen Berufen die Tätigkeiten, die ausgeübt werden, sich verändern werden. Darüber hinaus ist ein Trend hin zu höheren Anforderungsniveaus zu beobachten. Somit kann der Strukturwandel vor allen dann gelingen, wenn er durch viel (Weiter-)Bildung begleitet wird. Der Strukturwandel fiel von 1999 bis 2019 in den ostdeutschen Bundesländern stärker aus als in Westdeutschland. In Baden-Württemberg war der Wandel geringer ausgeprägt als im Durchschnitt in Deutschland und in Westdeutschland. Wird die individuelle berufliche Mobilität betrachtet, zeigt sich, dass rund 60 Prozent der (in 1999) unter 35-Jährigen, die 20 Jahre später noch beschäftigt sind, in einem anderen Beruf wie zu Beginn des Analysezeitraums arbeiten. D. h. der Strukturwandel wird zu einem wesentlichen Teil durch Berufswechsel während des Erwerbslebens geprägt. Einer der großen Trends auf dem Arbeitsmarkt ist die Digitalisierung. Hierbei zeigt sich, dass Beschäftigtenanteile von Berufen mit geringem Substituierbarkeitspotenzial eher zunehmen, während sie in Berufen mit hohem Substituierbarkeitspotenzial überwiegend abnehmen. Dies führt mittel- bis langfristig dazu, dass tendenziell mehr Beschäftigte in Berufen arbeiten (bzw. Tätigkeiten ausüben), die anspruchsvoller sind, weil sie nur einen sehr geringen Routineanteil und dafür einen viel höheren Anteil an analytischen, kreativen, interaktiven und beratenden Tätigkeiten aufweisen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Fenwick, Ali, Gabor Molnar & Piper Frangos (2023): Revisiting the role of HR in the age of AI: bringing humans and machines closer together in the workplace. In: Frontiers in artificial intelligence, Jg. 6. DOI:10.3389/frai.2023.1272823

Abstract

"The functions of human resource management (HRM) have changed radically in the past 20 years due to market and technological forces, becoming more cross-functional and data-driven. In the age of AI, the role of HRM professionals in organizations continues to evolve. Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming many HRM functions and practices throughout organizations creating system and process efficiencies, performing advanced data analysis, and contributing to the value creation process of the organization. A growing body of evidence highlights the benefits AI brings to the field of HRM. Despite the increased interest in AI-HRM scholarship, focus on human-AI interaction at work and AI-based technologies for HRM is limited and fragmented. Moreover, the lack of human considerations in HRM tech design and deployment can hamper AI digital transformation efforts. This paper provides a contemporary and forward-looking perspective to the strategic and human-centric role HRM plays within organizations as AI becomes more integrated in the workplace. Spanning three distinct phases of AI-HRM integration (technocratic, integrated, and fully-embedded), it examines the technical, human, and ethical challenges at each phase and provides suggestions on how to overcome them using a human-centric approach. Our paper highlights the importance of the evolving role of HRM in the AI-driven organization and provides a roadmap on how to bring humans and machines closer together in the workplace." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fernández-Macías, Enrique, Martina Bisello, Eleonora Peruffo & Riccardo Rinaldi (2023): Routinization of work processes, de-routinization of job structures. In: Socio-economic review, Jg. 21, H. 3, S. 1773-1794. DOI:10.1093/ser/mwac044

Abstract

"This article investigates changes in routine tasks and computer use in European jobs in the period 1995–2015, putting them in the context of the debates on the future of work and the impact of automation. Digital technologies not only affect employment shifts but also shape work organization. A shift-share analysis combining European Working Conditions Survey and European Labour Force Survey data assesses to what extent recent changes in tasks are the result of changes in the structure of employment (shifts in employment across jobs) or changes in the content of work itself (transformation in the task contents and methods within jobs). The results suggest contrasting trends between observed changes in tasks measures within jobs and compositional shifts in employment for routine tasks indexes. Employment structures are de-routinizing while work itself is becoming more routine. These results seem also related to the increased use of computers at work during the same period." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fleischer, Julia & Camilla Wanckel (2023): Job Satisfaction and the Digital Transformation of the Public Sector: The Mediating Role of Job Autonomy. In: Review of Public Personnel Administration online erschienen am 12.01.2023, S. 1-22. DOI:10.1177/0734371X221148403

Abstract

"Worldwide, governments have introduced novel information and communication technologies (ICTs) for policy formulation and service delivery, radically changing the working environment of government employees. Following the debate on work stress and particularly on technostress, we argue that the use of ICTs triggers “digital overload” that decreases government employees’ job satisfaction via inhibiting their job autonomy. Contrary to prior research, we consider job autonomy as a consequence rather than a determinant of digital overload, because ICT-use accelerates work routines and interruptions and eventually diminishes employees’ freedom to decide how to work. Based on novel survey data from government employees in Germany, Italy, and Norway, our structural equation modeling (SEM) confirms a significant negative effect of digital overload on job autonomy. More importantly, job autonomy partially mediates the negative relationship between digital overload and job satisfaction, pointing to the importance of studying the micro-foundations of ICT-use in the public sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Frank, Morgan, Yong-Yeol Ahn & Esteban Moro (2023): AI exposure predicts unemployment risk. (arXiv papers), 35 S.

Abstract

"Is artificial intelligence (AI) disrupting jobs and creating unemployment? Despite many attempts to quantify occupations' exposure to AI, inconsistent validation obfuscates the relative benefits of each approach. A lack of disaggregated labor outcome data, including unemployment data, further exacerbates the issue. Here, we assess which models of AI exposure predict job separations and unemployment risk using new occupation-level unemployment data by occupation from each US state's unemployment insurance office spanning 2010 through 2020. Although these AI exposure scores have been used by governments and industry, we find that individual AI exposure models are not predictive of unemployment rates, unemployment risk, or job separation rates. However, an ensemble of those models exhibits substantial predictive power suggesting that competing models may capture different aspects of AI exposure that collectively account for AI's variable impact across occupations, regions, and time. Our results also call for dynamic, context-aware, and validated methods for assessing AI exposure." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fregin, Marie-Christine & Michael Stops (2023): Wer mit KI-Technologien erfolgreich sein will, sollte die Wirkungen valide abschätzen können. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 76, H. 8, S. 12-15., 2023-08-16.

Abstract

"Marie-Christine Fregin, Universität Maastricht, und Michael Stops, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg, zeigen, dass die KI bisher insgesamt wenig quantitative Beschäftigungseffekte verursacht hat, da KI-Systeme in der deutschen Wirtschaft noch recht wenig verbreitet sind. Zudem müssten Beschäftigte bei der Einführung neuer Systeme oftmals neue Tätigkeiten ausführen und teilweise erlernen; andererseits sei erwartbar, dass bestimmte Tätigkeiten, die bisher den Beschäftigten vorbehalten waren, von der KI unterstützt und manchmal sogar übernommen werden könnten. Unternehmen sollten wissen, wie der Erfolg einer Technologieeinführung zu messen sei." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Fregin, Marie-Christine, Theresa Koch, Verena Malfertheiner, Pelin Özgül & Michael Stops (2023): Automatisierungspotenziale von beruflichen Tätigkeiten: Künstliche Intelligenz und Software – Beschäftigte sind unterschiedlich betroffen. (IAB-Kurzbericht 21/2023), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2321

Abstract

"Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) und Software-Systeme ohne KI (Software) können die Ausübung verschiedenster Tätigkeiten beeinflussen. So könnten Tätigkeiten von Hochqualifizierten teilweise von KI übernommen werden, während ein Teil der Tätigkeiten in Berufen mit mittleren oder geringen Qualifikationsanforderungen eher durch den Einsatz von Software betroffen sein könnte. Ganze Berufe mit ihren vielfältigen Tätigkeiten können die Technologien aber nicht übernehmen - auch nicht dort, wo Fachkräfte dringend benötigt werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Friedrich, Teresa Sophie & Basha Vicari (2023): The Digitalization Boost of the Covid‐19 Pandemic and Changes in Job Quality. In: Social Inclusion, Jg. 11, H. 4, S. 274-286., 2023-09-18. DOI:10.17645/si.v11i4.7082

Abstract

"The Covid‐19 pandemic caused a digitalization boost, mainly through the rise of telework. Even before the pandemic, advancing digital transformation restructured the way of working and thereby changed the quality of jobs—albeit at a different pace across occupations. With data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), we examine how job quality and the use of digital technologies changed during the first pandemic year in different occupations. Building on this, we analyze change score models to investigate how increased workplace digitalization connects to changes in selected aspects of employees’ subjective job quality. We find only a weak association between the digitalization boost in different occupational fields and the overall decrease in subjective job quality. However, telework—as one aspect of digitalization—is connected to a smaller decrease in work–family reconciliation and conformable working hours. Thus, it may buffer some detrimental pandemic effects on job quality. In addition, telework is connected to increased information overload, creating a new burden for specific employee groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fung, Esabella (2023): A machine learning approach for assessing labor supply to the online labor market. (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 118844), München, 28 S.

Abstract

"The online labor market, comprised of companies such as Upwork, Amazon Mechanical Turk, and their freelancer workforce, has expanded worldwide over the past 15 years and has changed the labor market landscape. Although qualitative studies have been done to identify factors related to the global supply to the online labor market, few data modeling studies have been conducted to quantify the importance of these factors in this area. This study applied tree-based supervised learning techniques, decision tree regression, random forest, and gradient boosting, to systematically evaluate the online labor supply with 70 features related to climate, population, economics, education, health, language, and technology adoption. To provide machine learning explainability, SHAP, based on the Shapley values, was introduced to identify features with high marginal contributions. The top 5 contributing features indicate the tight integration of technology adoption, language, and human migration patterns with the online labor market supply." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Födisch, Martin (2023): Leuchttürme in der Praxis: was wir von Vorreitern lernen können. Automatisierung in der Bundesagentur für Arbeit?! Ein Pilotfall für Human Friendly Automation. In: T. Kämpf, B. Langes, L. C. Schatilow & H.-J. Gergs (Hrsg.) (2023): Human Friendly Automation. Arbeit und Künstliche Intelligenz neu denken, S. 117-125.

Zitatform

Garnitz, Johanna & Daria Schaller (2023): ChatGPT, Chatbots und mehr – wie wird künstliche Intelligenz in den HR-Abteilungen von Unternehmen genutzt? In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 76, H. 9, S. 65-68.

Abstract

"Das ifo Institut befragt im Auftrag von Randstad Deutschland quartalsweise deutsche HR-Abteilungen zu personalpolitisch relevanten Themen. Das aktuelle Schwerpunktthema befasst sich mit dem Einsatz von Künstlicher Intelligenz, insbesondere in den HR-Abteilungen. Derzeit nutzen ca. 5% der befragten Unternehmen Künstliche Intelligenz im HR-Bereich, geplant haben dies weitere 25% der Unternehmen. Ein Viertel der Unternehmen ergreift Maßnahmen für den (geplanten) Einsatz von KI, und zwar am häufigsten in Form von Arbeits- und Expertengruppen (53%), gefolgt von Fortbildungen (43%). 86% der Teilnehmenden sind hinsichtlich des Einsatzes von KI skeptisch. Trotzdem sehen sie Potenzial für KI im Personalbereich, besonders im Bereich der Automatisierung von Personalprozessen, in der Rekrutierung und im Bewerbermanagement." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Gathmann, Christina, Christian Kagerl, Laura Pohlan & Duncan Roth (2023): The Pandemic Push: Digital Technologies and Workforce Adjustments. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16062), Bonn, 49 S.

Abstract

"Based on a unique survey and administrative employer-employee data, we show that the COVID-19 pandemic acted as a push factor for the diffusion of digital technologies in Germany. About two in three firms invested in digital technologies, in particular in hardware and software to enable decentralized communication, management and coordination. The investments encouraged additional firm-sponsored training despite pandemic-related restrictions indicating that investments in digital technologies and training are complements. We then demonstrate that the additional investments helped firms to insure workers against the downturn during the pandemic. Firms that made additional investments relied less on short-time work, had more of their regular employees working normal hours and had to lay off fewer marginal workers. Male, younger and medium-skilled workers benefitted the most from the insurance effect of digital investments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Genz, Sabrina & Claus Schnabel (2023): Digitalization is not gender-neutral. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 230. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111256

Abstract

"Using unique linked employer-employee data for Germany and a matching approach, we provide novel insights on the individual-level employment effects of digitalization. We show that the first-time introduction of digital technology in an establishment affects women more strongly than men. This holds both in terms of lower days employed and higher days unemployed. We find that employment losses are largest for individuals conducting non-routine tasks, and again it is women who suffer the most. Our insights imply that digitalization is not gender-neutral, suggesting that it is important to avoid a gender bias in technological progress." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))