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Digitale Arbeitswelt – Chancen und Herausforderungen für Beschäftigte und Arbeitsmarkt

Der digitale Wandel der Arbeitswelt gilt als eine der großen Herausforderungen für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Wie arbeiten wir in Zukunft? Welche Auswirkungen hat die Digitalisierung und die Nutzung Künstlicher Intelligenz auf Beschäftigung und Arbeitsmarkt? Welche Qualifikationen werden künftig benötigt? Wie verändern sich Tätigkeiten und Berufe? Welche arbeits- und sozialrechtlichen Konsequenzen ergeben sich daraus?
Dieses Themendossier dokumentiert Forschungsergebnisse zum Thema in den verschiedenen Wirtschaftsbereichen und Regionen.
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  • Literaturhinweis

    New Technology, Older Workers: How Workplace Technology is Associated with Indicators of Job Retention (2026)

    Abrams, Leah ; Schneider, Daniel ; Harknett, Kristen ;

    Zitatform

    Abrams, Leah, Daniel Schneider & Kristen Harknett (2026): New Technology, Older Workers: How Workplace Technology is Associated with Indicators of Job Retention. In: Journal of Aging & Social Policy, Jg. 38, H. 4, S. 635-651. DOI:10.1080/08959420.2025.2523122

    Abstract

    "Middle-aged and older adults who are employed in precarious, high-strain jobs may face challenges to continued work, risking economic insecurity and poor wellbeing in retirement. Technology in the workplace, an under-studied aspect of work environments, could accommodate aging workers or could add stress to their jobs. This study examines how technology in sales and surveillance at work are related to job satisfaction and planned job exits among approximately 6,000 workers aged 50–69 employed in the low-wage service sector (e.g. retail, pharmacy, grocery, hardware, fast food, casual dining, delivery, and hotel). On-the-job surveillance was related to lower job satisfaction and higher reports of looking for a new job, especially when combined with sanctioning for slow speed of work. However, rewards for speed, and to a lesser extent the use of leaderboards, were associated with higher job satisfaction, demonstrating the potential of technology to enhance the work experience for older employees. The use of sales technologies was not associated with job satisfaction or intentions to look for a new job. These results provide a uniquely detailed portrait of prevailing labor market conditions for aging workers in the service sector and demonstrate how certain kinds of technology matter for older workers ’ employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Automation and Polarization (2026)

    Acemoglu, Daron ; Löbbing, Jonas;

    Zitatform

    Acemoglu, Daron & Jonas Löbbing (2026): Automation and Polarization. In: Journal of Political Economy, Jg. 134, H. 3, S. 1017-1072. DOI:10.1086/739330

    Abstract

    "We develop an assignment model of automation. Each of a continuum of tasks of variable complexity is assigned to either capital or one of a continuum of labor skills. We characterize conditions for interiorautomation, whereby tasks of intermediate complexity are performed by capital. Interior automation arises when the most skilled workers have a comparative advantage in the most complex tasks relative to capital, and when the wages of the least skilled workers are sufficiently low relative to both their own productivity and the effective cost of capital in low-complexity tasks. Minimum wages and other sourcesof higher wages at the bottom make interior automation less likely. Starting with interior automation, a reduction in the cost of capital (or an increase in capital productivity) causes employment and wage polarization. Specifically, further automation pushes workers into tasks at the lower and upper ends ofthe task distribution. It also monotonically increases the skill premium above a threshold and reduces the skill premium below this threshold. Moreover, automation tends to reduce the real wage of Workers with comparative advantage profiles close to that of capital. We show that large enough increases in capital productivity ultimately induce a transition to low-skill automation and qualitatively alter the effects of automation—thereafter inducing monotone increases in skill premia rather than wage polarization." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Online platform work in the European Union: Implications for working conditions and access to information (2026)

    Adăscăliței, Dragoș ; Urzi-Brancati, Cesira; Stefancova, Iveta; Brattlund, Elin;

    Zitatform

    Adăscăliței, Dragoș, Cesira Urzi-Brancati, Iveta Stefancova & Elin Brattlund (2026): Online platform work in the European Union: Implications for working conditions and access to information. (Eurofound research report / European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions), Luxembourg, 82 S. DOI:10.2806/0981358

    Abstract

    "This report analyses the working conditions and information needs of online platform workers based on a survey of 3 830 workers across 15 EU Member States. Unlike existing research focused on on-location platform work, this study examines workers who provide services entirely online. The findings reveal a workforce that is predominantly male, of prime working age and highly educated, primarily delivering skilled professional services rather than microtasks. The research also finds that algorithmic control practices are widespread, with more than 40 % of survey respondents being subject to intrusive control practices combining surveillance, gamification and restricted autonomy. Self-reported average annual earnings from online platform work of EUR 20 000 mask substantial variation by country and task type. Findings also indicate that online platform work can provide genuine labour market access for groups facing barriers in traditional employment, including homemakers, students and the unemployed. Workers generally demonstrate good knowledge of platform-specific information but exhibit significant gaps in knowledge of work-related rights, particularly social security contributions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Who uses Generative AI? Patterns and inequalities across the EU: Employment and labour markets (2026)

    Adăscăliței, Dragoș ;

    Zitatform

    Adăscăliței, Dragoș (2026): Who uses Generative AI? Patterns and inequalities across the EU. Employment and labour markets. (Eurofound working paper), Dublin, 19 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper describes generative AI use patterns across EU27 Member States in 2025, analysing crossnational variation and socio-demographic inequalities based on Eurostat aggregate data. Overall use of generative AI reaches 32.7% at the EU27 level, ranging from 17.8% in Romania to 48.4% in Denmark. Country patterns do not follow clear geographic clustering, with high and low adopters distributed across all European regions. Private use systematically exceeds professional use, whilst educational use remains concentrated among young populations. Educational attainment emerges as a strong predictor of AI use, with high-educated individuals using generative AI at more than double the rate of low-educated individuals. Age is also a strong predictor, with 63.8% of those aged 16-24 having used generative AI in the past three months compared to just 6.5% of those aged 65 and above. The gender gaps in AI use are moderate but widen with education. In terms of broad occupational groups, the analysis demonstrates that uptake is heavily skewed towards ICT professions. Labour force status also matters decisively, with students (72.0%) far exceeding employed (36.4%), unemployed (28.3%), and retired/inactive populations (12.9%) in technology usage. These patterns reveal stratified diffusion of generative AI use with implications for labour market inequalities across the EU." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics (2026)

    Afrouzi, Hassan; Drenik, Andrés; Blanco, Andres; Hurst, Erik ;

    Zitatform

    Afrouzi, Hassan, Andres Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2026): Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 35157), Cambridge, Mass, 58 S.

    Abstract

    "We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier of tasks managers maintain, and the worker-to-manager career transition. Economies with high learning capacity admit pairs of stationary equilibria strictly ranked by the aggregate learning rate. Cheaper technology has opposite effects across the two: in the high-learning equilibrium, it raises welfare through the learning channel itself; in the low-learning equilibrium, it tips the economy into a human-capital trap. The planner's first-best combines a tax on automation profits with a subsidy on frontier-maintenance expenditures at a common rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model (2026)

    Agrawal, Ajay K.; Oettl, Alexander ; McHale, John ;

    Zitatform

    Agrawal, Ajay K., John McHale & Alexander Oettl (2026): Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34781), Cambridge, Mass, 44 S.

    Abstract

    "The task-based approach has become the dominant framework for studying the labor-market effects of artificial intelligence (AI), typically emphasizing the replacement of human workers by machines. Motivated by growing empirical evidence that contemporary AI is more often used as a tool that augments workers, this paper develops two related task-based models in which AI enhances worker productivity without automating tasks. Abstracting from capital, we develop a pair of related task-based models that examine how technological progress in AI that provides new tools to augment workers affects aggregate productivity and wage inequality. Both models emphasize the role of human capital in intermediating the effects of AI-related technological shocks. In the first model, AI use requires specialized expertise, and technological progress expands the set of tasks for which such expertise is effective. We show that a larger supply of AI expertise amplifies the productivity gains from improvements in AI technology while attenuating its adverse effects on wage inequality. The second model focuses on non-AI skills, allowing AI tools to alter the set of tasks that workers can perform given their skills. In equilibrium, workers allocate across tasks in response to wages, generating an endogenous distribution of skills across the task space. A central result is that aggregate productivity and wage inequality depend on different global properties of this equilibrium distribution: productivity is particularly sensitive to thinly staffed tasks that create bottlenecks, while wage inequality is driven by the concentration of workers in a narrow set of tasks. As a result, improvements in AI tools can induce non-monotonic co-movement between productivity and inequality. By linking these mechanisms to multidimensional human capital---including AI expertise and higher-order non-AI skills---the paper highlights the role of education and training policies in shaping the economic consequences of AI-driven technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index (2026)

    Akyildirim, Erdinc; Gozgor, Giray; Bekci, Suzan;

    Zitatform

    Akyildirim, Erdinc, Suzan Bekci & Giray Gozgor (2026): Do AI Expectations Reduce Unemployment in the United States? Evidence from an AI Attention Index. (CESifo working paper 12653), München, 13 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper constructs an AI Attention Index from LexisNexis news coverage and embeds it within an augmented Phillips curve framework. It then examines the relationship between AI attention and unemployment in the United States using monthly data from January 2000 to December 2025. We find that greater AI attention is associated with lower unemployment. Nonlinear estimates reveal a U-shaped relationship, indicating diminishing marginal effects within the observed data range. The relationship weakens after the onset of COVID-19, with both linear and nonlinear effects reduced. These findings indicate that labour market effects of AI-related expectations are sensitive to macroeconomic regime shifts." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms (2026)

    Aldasoro, Iñaki; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Pal, Rozalia; Wolski, Marcin; Weiß, Christoph; Revoltella, Debora;

    Zitatform

    Aldasoro, Iñaki, Leonardo Gambacorta, Rozalia Pal, Debora Revoltella, Christoph Weiß & Marcin Wolski (2026): AI adoption, productivity and employment: Evidence from European firms. (Economics - working papers / European Investment Bank 2026/02), Luxembourg, 32 S. DOI:10.2867/1772538

    Abstract

    "This paper provides new evidence on how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) affects productivity and employment in Europe. Using matched EIBIS-ORBIS data on more than 12,000 non-financial firms in the European Union (EU) and United States (US), we instrument the adoption of AI by EU firms by assigning the adoption rates of US peers to isolate exogenous technological exposure. Our results show that AI adoption increases the level of labor productivity by 4%. Productivity gains are due to capital deepening, as we find no adverse effects on firm-level employment. This suggests that AI increases worker output rather than replacing labor in the short run, though longer-term effects remain uncertain. However, productivity benefits of AI adoption are unevenly distributed and concentrate in medium and large firms. Moreover, AI-adopting firms are more innovative and their workers earn higher wages. Our analysis also highlights the critical role of complementary investments in software and data or workforce training to fully unlock the productivity gains of AI adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of 'Power and Progress' by Acemoglu and Johnson (2026)

    Aldred, Jonathan;

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    Aldred, Jonathan (2026): The effect of AI on labour demand: A critical assessment of 'Power and Progress' by Acemoglu and Johnson. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Jg. 78, S. 188-196. DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2026.03.008

    Abstract

    "Task-based models of production have led to a theoretical reappraisal of the effect of new technology on labour demand. This paper critically assesses the policy implications of this research agenda, with particular reference to Acemoglu and Johnson’s recent book, Power and Progress. While Acemoglu and Johnson take welcome steps away from previous orthodoxy, their analysis has several flaws which affect the policy lessons to be drawn, including: (i) the explanation for anti-labour bias is unclear; (ii) worker-friendly technologies are not clearly characterised in theory, and hard to identify in practice; (iii) macroeconomic policy orthodoxy is largely unquestioned. More generally, much of Power and Progress remains unhelpfully constrained by theoretical commitments to mainstream economics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    The end of work feels near. How do people perceive the impact of digital technologies and automation? (2026)

    Arntz, Melanie ; Blesse, Sebastian ; Doerrenberg, Philipp ;

    Zitatform

    Arntz, Melanie, Sebastian Blesse & Philipp Doerrenberg (2026): The end of work feels near. How do people perceive the impact of digital technologies and automation? In: Labour Economics, Jg. 102, 2026-05-11. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2026.102897

    Abstract

    "Anxieties about technological change in the context of the labor market are a recurring historical phenomenon. Using customized survey data collected in 2019 in the US and Germany, prior to the recent wave of generative AI applications, we study how respondents perceive the impact of the digital (automation) technologies available at the time of the survey on the labor market. We document that a majority views digital technologies and automation as a major threat to overall employment and as a cause of rising inequality, while a quarter is concerned about their own labor market prospects. Providing scientific information on the likely labor market implications of digital technologies in a randomized experiment reduces these concerns. Yet, treatment responses depend on prior beliefs about the future of work, resulting in heterogeneous and opposing treatment effects on policy demand." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Arntz, Melanie ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Artificial intelligence exposure and occupational wages: Evidence from the United States (2026)

    Atalay, Ozan ;

    Zitatform

    Atalay, Ozan (2026): Artificial intelligence exposure and occupational wages: Evidence from the United States. In: Journal of Economic Studies, S. 1-15. DOI:10.1108/jes-03-2026-0281

    Abstract

    "Purpose: This paper investigates the relationship between occupational exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and wage structures in the United States. While much of the literature focuses on the displacement effects of AI, less attention has been given to its implications for wage outcomes across occupations. Design/methodology/approach: The study uses occupation-level data for 671 occupations, combining wage information with an AI exposure index that captures the extent to which occupations are affected by AI technologies. Cross-sectional regression models with robust standard errors are employed, controlling for employment size and occupational characteristics. Quantile regression is also used to examine variation across the wage distribution. Findings: The results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between AI exposure and wages. Occupations with higher exposure tend to have higher wage levels. This pattern is consistent across model specifications and across the wage distribution. The findings are broadly consistent when using an instrumental variable approach. The association is stronger in occupations with higher cognitive skill intensity. Research limitations/implications: This study is based on occupation-level data rather than individual-level observations, which limits the ability to capture within-occupation wage heterogeneity. In addition, the AI exposure index reflects potential exposure rather than actual adoption at the firm level. Future research could extend this analysis using firm-level or longitudinal data. Practical implications: The findings suggest that occupations with higher exposure to artificial intelligence tend to exhibit higher wages, highlighting the importance of skill upgrading and targeted workforce policies. Policymakers and organizations should focus on enhancing digital skills and supporting workforce transition to maximize the benefits of AI. Social implications: The results indicate that artificial intelligence may contribute to wage differences across occupations by enhancing productivity in certain roles. This highlights the need to ensure equal access to skills and training opportunities so that the benefits of AI are distributed more evenly across the labor market. Originality/value: This study contributes by providing occupation-level evidence on the relationship between AI exposure and wages, shifting attention from employment effects to wage structures. It also highlights that this relationship is partly explained by occupational skill composition, while a residual association remains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Technologischer Wandel und Löhne: Die Anpassung der Berufe spielt eine entscheidende Rolle (2026)

    Bachmann, Ronald ; Demir, Gökay ; Uhlendorff, Arne ; Green, Colin ;

    Zitatform

    Bachmann, Ronald, Gökay Demir, Colin Green & Arne Uhlendorff (2026): Technologischer Wandel und Löhne: Die Anpassung der Berufe spielt eine entscheidende Rolle. (IAB-Kurzbericht 01/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2601

    Abstract

    "Technischer Fortschritt verändert die Arbeitswelt - besonders in Berufen, in denen viele Tätigkeiten leicht automatisiert werden können. In den letzten Jahrzehnten ist der Anteil an Routinetätigkeiten in vielen Berufen deutlich zurückgegangen - häufig zugunsten nicht routine­mäßiger kognitiver Tätigkeiten wie Analysieren, Planen oder Beraten. Dabei verzeichnen Berufe, deren Tätigkeiten sich im Laufe der Zeit stärker an den technologischen Wandel angepasst haben, steigende Löhne. Sie zeichnen sich zudem durch intensivere Weiterbildungsaktivitäten aus. In Berufen, deren Tätigkeitsprofil sich kaum verändert hat, stagnieren die Löhne dagegen häufiger." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Demir, Gökay ; Uhlendorff, Arne ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    How important are within‐occupation task changes for wage growth? Evidence from administrative micro data (2026)

    Bachmann, Ronald ; Uhlendorff, Arne ; Demir, Gökay ; Green, Colin ;

    Zitatform

    Bachmann, Ronald, Gökay Demir, Colin Green & Arne Uhlendorff (2026): How important are within‐occupation task changes for wage growth? Evidence from administrative micro data. In: Economica, Jg. 93, H. 372, S. 1260-1299., 2026-05-19. DOI:10.1111/ecca.70054

    Abstract

    "We examine how changes in task content over time condition occupational wage development. Using survey data from Germany, we document substantial heterogeneity in within-occupation changes in task content. Combining this evidence with administrative data on individual employment outcomes over a 25-year period, we find important heterogeneity in wage penalties amongst jobs that were initially routine-task-intensive. While occupations that remain (relatively) routine-intensive generate substantial wage penalties, occupations with a decreasing routine intensity experience stable or even increasing wages. These findings suggest that changing task profiles of occupations is an important adaptation mechanism to technological change. They cannot be explained by composition or cohort effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Uhlendorff, Arne ; Demir, Gökay ;
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  • Literaturhinweis

    Technological progress, occupational structure and gender gaps in the German labour market (2026)

    Bachmann, Ronald ; Gonschor, Myrielle;

    Zitatform

    Bachmann, Ronald & Myrielle Gonschor (2026): Technological progress, occupational structure and gender gaps in the German labour market. In: International Journal of Manpower, Jg. 47, H. 2, S. 403-422. DOI:10.1108/ijm-10-2024-0711

    Abstract

    "Purpose: This study examines whether advances in technology and shifts in the occupational structure have enhanced women's position within the labour market. It answers the following research questions: First, how has the occupational employment structure evolved over the last decades, and how is this related to gender gaps? Second, which factors explain the gender gap and its narrowing over time? Design/methodology/approach: We use individual-level panel data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for West Germany over the period 1985–2017 and individual-level task data from the BIBB Employment survey. We use the task intensity of an occupation and the task group an occupation belongs to as proxies for technological change. To analyze explanatory factors, we use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. Findings: Women are increasingly engaging in non-routine manual and interactive occupations. The concurrent narrowing of the gender wage gap is attributable to declining gender wage gaps within task groups rather than between them. Observable factors, such as education have grown in importance to the gender wage gap, whereas the importance of unexplained factors has strongly declined. Technological change plays no significant role in the evolution of the gender wage gap. By contrast, part-time employment exerts a substantial influence on the gender wage gap. Originality/value: Our analysis includes part-time and high-skilled workers frequently excluded from other studies. The use of individual-level data combined with task information for occupations facilitates the examination of long-run developments such as technological change both between and within task groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Systematic literature review on the digital transformation of the personnel selection process (2026)

    Baranyi, Virág ;

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    Baranyi, Virág (2026): Systematic literature review on the digital transformation of the personnel selection process. In: German Journal of Human Resource Management, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 223-254. DOI:10.1177/23970022251363012

    Abstract

    "Digital Transformation technologies (DT technologies) are reshaping work processes, including personnel selection, an area traditionally viewed as inherently human-centric. While prior studies have examined various digital technologies in personnel selection, they have not provided sufficient evidence on the different levels of digitalization in selection processes and the factors influencing organizations’ adoption decisions. To address these gaps, this study systematically reviews 94 Scopus-indexed studies to analyze how DT technologies are applied across selection stages, categorizing practices into Manual, Digitalized, and Digitally Transformed approaches. By further distinguishing between Digital Technologies and AI Enhancements, this study offers a structured framework for understanding how organizations integrate digital technologies into selection and what drives or hinders their adoption. The findings highlight both the benefits (efficiency gains, potential bias reduction, improved candidate experience) and challenges (ethical concerns, algorithmic bias, technical and cultural barriers, and candidate perceptions) associated with these technologies, providing insights for both academic research and HR practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Winners and losers when firms robotize: wage effects across occupations and education (2026)

    Barth, Erling ; Umblijs, Janis ; Røed, Marianne; Schøne, Pål ;

    Zitatform

    Barth, Erling, Marianne Røed, Pål Schøne & Janis Umblijs (2026): Winners and losers when firms robotize: wage effects across occupations and education. In: The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Jg. 128, H. 1, S. 3-32. DOI:10.1111/sjoe.12593

    Abstract

    "This paper analyses the impact of robots on workers' wages in the manufacturing sector, with a particular focus on relative wages for workers with different levels of education and in different occupations. Using high-quality matched employer–employee register data with firm-level information on the introduction of industrial robots, we identify the effects of robotization on relative wages within firms. Skilled blue-collar workers with a vocational degree experience a decline in wages when firms introduce robots, while there are only small effects for the other groups of workers. These results suggest that robots are substitutes for tasks undertaken by skilled blue-collar workers in manufacturing, and furthermore that the adoption of robots contributes to a polarization of the labor market and a hollowing out of the wage distribution, rather than to skill-biased technical change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Investigating social protection amongst platform workers in Germany: forced individualisation, hybrid income generation and undesired regulation (2026)

    Beckmann, Fabian ; Hoose, Fabian ; Glanz, Sabrina ; Topal, Serkan ;

    Zitatform

    Beckmann, Fabian, Sabrina Glanz, Fabian Hoose & Serkan Topal (2026): Investigating social protection amongst platform workers in Germany: forced individualisation, hybrid income generation and undesired regulation. In: Journal of Social Policy, Jg. 55, H. 1, S. 100-118. DOI:10.1017/s0047279424000217

    Abstract

    "The social protection of platform workers is considered one of the most precarious features and political challenges of this new form of employment. Still, there have only been a few empirical investigations on this issue to date. This article presents an explorative empirical analysis of the social protection of platform workers in Germany – a conservative welfare regime with a strong link between standard employment and institutionalized social protection. On the basis of an online survey amongst 719 self-employed platform workers, we examine how different employment patterns correspond to institutionalized protection against sickness and old age. We empirically explore different protection types and analyse how they differ regarding working conditions in platform work and individual social policy preferences. Findings reveal that conditions of platform work and social protection as well as demands and regulatory preferences vary notably across different clusters of platform workers. Still, the vast majority votes against obligatory social insurances for platform workers and favors self-employment over dependent employment. Against this background, we discuss challenges for future attempts aiming at improving social protection for platform workers. This study adds to the literature by empirically exploring platform workers’ social protection and social policy preferences, which have been overlooked to date." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Automation Experiments and Inequality (2026)

    Benzell, Seth Gordon; Myers, Kyle R. ;

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    Benzell, Seth Gordon & Kyle R. Myers (2026): Automation Experiments and Inequality. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 34668), Cambridge, Mass, 26 S., App. DOI:10.3386/w34668

    Abstract

    "Many experiments study the productivity effects of automation technologies such as generative algorithms. A key test in these experiments relates to inequality: does the technology increase output more for high- or low-skill workers? However, the theoretical content of this empirical test has been unclear. Here, we formalize a theory that describes the experimental effect of automation technologies on worker-level output and, therefore, inequality. Worker-level output depends on a task-level production function, and workers are heterogeneous in their task-level skills. Workers perform a task themselves or delegate it to the automation technology. The inequality effect of improved automation depends on the interaction of two factors: (i) the correlation in task-level skills across workers, and (ii) workers' skills relative to the technology's effective skill. In many cases we study, the inequality effect is non-monotonic --- as technologies improve, inequality decreases then increases. The model and descriptive statistics of skill correlations generally suggest that the diversity of automation technologies will play an important role in the evolution of inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Digital divide and income inequality: causal evidence from Italian provinces (2026)

    Bergantino, Angela Stefania ; Intini, Mario; Fusco, Giulio; Monturano, Gianluca;

    Zitatform

    Bergantino, Angela Stefania, Giulio Fusco, Mario Intini & Gianluca Monturano (2026): Digital divide and income inequality: causal evidence from Italian provinces. In: The Annals of Regional Science, Jg. 75, H. 1. DOI:10.1007/s00168-025-01440-z

    Abstract

    "The digital economy can function either as a catalyst to stimulate economic growth or else as a driver of socioeconomic inequality when its benefits are unevenly distributed. This study investigates the effect of rural digital connectivity on income inequality in Italy. Utilizing NUTS 3 panel data spanning 2014–2022, we conduct a counterfactual Difference-in-Differences approach with continuous treatment intensity to estimate the impact of introducing rural broadband coverage at speeds of 30 and 100 Mbps on multiple measures of income distribution, including the Gini, Theil, and Atkinson indices. The empirical framework incorporates a comprehensive set of socioeconomic controls, as well as provincial and time fixed effects, to account for unobserved heterogeneity and regional path dependencies. Our findings indicate that broadband expansion is significantly associated with increasing inequality, suggesting that access alone does not guarantee inclusive outcomes, particularly in localities characterized by structural fragility and limited human capital. Additional heterogeneity and spatial analyses demonstrate that these inequality effects are more evident in southern provinces and localities with a higher concentration of inner areas, where the digital divide remains more pronounced. These findings accentuate the dual role of digitalization and highlight the necessity of coordinated policy interventions that combine infrastructure investment with digital skills development, institutional capacity-building, and spatially integrated governance strategies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US (2026)

    Bick, Alexander ; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David; Jessen, Jonas ; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola ;

    Zitatform

    Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 102/26), Berlin, 71 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US: BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026 (2026)

    Bick, Alexander ; Deming, David J.; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola ; Jessen, Jonas ; Blandin, Adam;

    Zitatform

    Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David J. Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US. BPEA Conference Draft, March 26-27, 2026. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Jg. Conference Draft, H. Spring, S. 1-70.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA (2026)

    Bick, Alexander ; Blandin, Adam; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola ; Jessen, Jonas ; Deming, David;

    Zitatform

    Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, David Deming, Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Jonas Jessen (2026): Mind the Gap: KI-Einführung in Europa und den USA. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 21337), London, 80 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We find no clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Re‐Skilling in the Age of Skill Shortage: Adult Education Rather Than Active Labor Market Policy: Special Issue: Bringing the Ecological and the Social Together in the Green Transition: A Multilevel Analysis (2026)

    Bonoli, Giuliano ; Felder-Stindt, Alina; Emmenegger, Patrick ;

    Zitatform

    Bonoli, Giuliano, Patrick Emmenegger & Alina Felder-Stindt (2026): Re‐Skilling in the Age of Skill Shortage: Adult Education Rather Than Active Labor Market Policy. Special Issue: Bringing the Ecological and the Social Together in the Green Transition: A Multilevel Analysis. In: Regulation and governance, Jg. 20, H. 2, S. 482-494. DOI:10.1111/rego.70065

    Abstract

    "European economies face the task of providing the necessary skills for the “twin transition ” in a period of skill shortage. As a result, we may expect countries to reorient their labor market policy towards re-skilling. We look for evidence of a reorientation in two relevant policy fields: active labor market policy (ALMP) and adult education (AE). We explore general trends in both fields based on quantitative indicators and compare recent policy developments in four countries with strong ALMP and AE sectors: Denmark, France, Germany, and Sweden. We do not observe clear evidence of a general movement away from activation and towards re-skilling in ALMP. However, in AE, we identify several re-skilling initiatives that address skill shortages. Relying on insights from queuing theories of hiring and training, we argue that due to changes in the population targeted by ALMP, the locus of re-skilling policy is increasingly moving towards AE." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Explaining women's skepticism toward artificial intelligence: The role of risk orientation and risk exposure (2026)

    Borwein, Sophie ; Bonikowski, Bart ; Ognyanova, Katherine; Alvarez, R. Michael; Loewen, Peter J.; Magistro, Beatrice ;

    Zitatform

    Borwein, Sophie, Beatrice Magistro, R. Michael Alvarez, Bart Bonikowski & Peter J. Loewen (2026): Explaining women's skepticism toward artificial intelligence: The role of risk orientation and risk exposure. In: PNAS nexus, Jg. 5, H. 1. DOI:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf399

    Abstract

    "This article examines the gender gap in attitudes toward the adoption of AI in the workplace, with a focus on how gender differences in risk orientation and risk exposure drive skepticism toward AI’s economic benefits. Using original surveydata from ∼3,000 respondents across Canada and the United States, we find that women consistently perceive AI to be riskier than men. We identify two key drivers behind this gender gap: women’s higher general risk aversion and their greater exposure to AI-related risks. To establish a causal relationship between risk and AI attitudes, we show experimentally that as the probability of net positive employment effects decreases, women’s support for companies adopting AI falls more sharply than men’s. Finally, structural topic modeling of open-ended responses confirms that women express greater uncertainty about AI’s benefits and more frequently anticipate little to no benefits. Given AI’s potential to exacerbate existing gender inequalities, our study highlights the critical importance of incorporating women’s perspectives into AI policy-making. Policies that do not address gender-specific risks may not only reinforce existing inequalities in employment and income but could also generate political backlash against AI adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Comment on “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong (2026)

    Braxton, J. Carter;

    Zitatform

    Braxton, J. Carter (2026): Comment on “Artificial Intelligence and Technological Unemployment” by Wang and Wong. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 159. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103924

    Abstract

    "Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 there has been a surge in the uptake of generative artificial intelligence (AI). The recent advances in AI have also been met with sweeping statements about the potential future employment effects. For example, the CEO of Anthropic said in May 2025 that “AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs - and spike unemployment to 10%–20% in the next one to five years.”1 In their paper, Wang and Wong (2025) develop and quantify an equilibrium model of the labor market to evaluate the potential employment effects of the spread of AI. Their model builds on labor search models with technological change (e.g., Mortensen and Pissarides (1998), and Postel-Vinay (2002)), augmenting the framework to capture the specifics of AI and calibrating it to recent empirical evidence on the impact of AI. The authors arrive at a striking result that the spread of AI will increase productivity by a factor of three but decrease employment by 23%, with approximately half of the increase occurring over the next 5-years. In this comment, I first discuss the central model ingredients of Wang and Wong (2025), which implies that there are both a job creation and job destruction channel of AI. I then discuss how we can learn about the relative strength of the job creation and destruction channels from the spread of computers between the 1980s and early 2000s. Finally, I conclude with avenues for future research." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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    Adapting social security to the needs of platform Workers – comparing the effects of EU initiatives in the Netherlands and Germany (2026)

    Brega, Carla ; Schulze Buschoff, Karin;

    Zitatform

    Brega, Carla & Karin Schulze Buschoff (2026): Adapting social security to the needs of platform Workers – comparing the effects of EU initiatives in the Netherlands and Germany. In: Zeitschrift für Sozialreform, S. 1-26. DOI:10.1515/zsr-2025-0023

    Abstract

    "Vor dem Hintergrund der Bedeutungszunahme der digitalen Plattformarbeit werden in Europa verstärkt Debatten über die Einstufung von Arbeitsverhältnissen und ihren sozialen Schutz geführt. Plattformbeschäftigte werden in der Regel als Selbstständige eingestuft, weshalb sie von den für Arbeitnehmer*innen konzipierten Arbeitsschutz- und Sozialversicherungssystemen ausgeschlossen sind. Die EU-Richtlinie zur Plattformarbeit (2024) befasst sich mit diesem Problem durch eine widerlegbare Vermutung des Beschäftigungsstatus, wodurch die (Re-)Klassifizierung von Plattformbeschäftigten als Arbeitnehmer*innen erleichtert werden soll. Wir argumentieren, dass eine (Re-)Klassifizierung allein möglicherweise nicht ausreicht, um einen angemessenen sozialen Schutz zu gewährleisten. Plattformarbeit ist häufig eine Nebentätigkeit für Menschen mit mehreren Jobs, unregelmäßigen Einkommen und fragmentierten Beschäftigungsverhältnissen – Beschäftigungsmuster, die Sozialversicherungssysteme herausfordern, die auf standardmäßigen Vollzeitbeschäftigungsverhältnissen bei einem einzigen Arbeitgeber basieren. Selbst wenn sie den Status eines abhängig Beschäftigten erlangen, können Plattformbeschäftigte die Voraussetzungen für die Arbeitslosenversicherung, für Rentenansprüche und andere Sozialleistungen nicht erfüllen. Anhand einer vergleichenden institutionellen Analyse Deutschlands und der Niederlande untersuchen wir, wie unterschiedliche Konfigurationen des Sozialstaats sowohl den (Re-)Klassifizierungsprozess als auch das Verhältnis von Beschäftigungsstatus und effektivem Zugang zu Sozialleistungen beeinflussen. Das konservative korporatistische Modell Deutschlands schafft eine scharfe Trennung zwischen dem Schutz von Arbeitnehmer*innen und Selbstständigen, während der hybride Flexicurity-Ansatz der Niederlande atypische Beschäftigungsverhältnisse flexibler berücksichtigt. Unsere Analyse zeigt, dass keines der beiden Modelle diesen Herausforderungen gerecht wird, was darauf hindeutet, dass Initiativen zur (Re-)Klassifizierung auf der EU-Ebene mit gleichzeitigen Reformen der nationalen Sozialversicherungssysteme einhergehen müssen, um Plattformbeschäftigten einen adäquaten Schutz zu bieten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter)

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    Der KI-Irrtum: Warum Deutschland auf Zuwanderung angewiesen ist: Leitartikel (2026)

    Brücker, Herbert ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Weber, Enzo ;

    Zitatform

    Brücker, Herbert, Yuliya Kosyakova & Enzo Weber (2026): Der KI-Irrtum: Warum Deutschland auf Zuwanderung angewiesen ist. Leitartikel. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 106, H. 5, S. 304-305. DOI:10.2478/wd-2026-0074

    Abstract

    "Sieben Millionen - so viele Arbeitskräfte wird Deutschland in den nächsten 15 Jahren allein aufgrund des demografischen Wandels verlieren. Bereits seit vielen Jahren ist der demografische Effekt negativ, mit mehr als 400.000 Arbeitskräften pro Jahr. Tatsächlich beginnt der deutsche Arbeitsmarkt jedoch erst jetzt zu schrumpfen. Denn bislang konnte dieser Rückgang überkompensiert werden - durch eine steigende Erwerbsbeteiligung von Älteren und Frauen; und vor allem durch Zuwanderung. Doch diese Ausgleichsmechanismen stoßen zunehmend an Grenzen. Europa altert insgesamt, und die Dynamik der Zuwanderung innerhalb Europas nimmt ab. Zugleich sind viele der besonders mobilen, jüngeren Kohorten bereits gewandert. Vor diesem Hintergrund wird Migration schwieriger - und genau hier setzt ein verbreitetes Argument an: Wenn Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) zunehmend Aufgaben übernimmt, braucht man doch keine zusätzlichen Arbeitskräfte mehr. Diese Folgerung ist ein Trugschluss. Arbeitskräfteknappheit lässt sich gesamtwirtschaftlich nicht einfach wegdigitalisieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Das knappe Gut Arbeit: Automatisierung, Arbeitskräftemangel und sozialer Konflikt (2026)

    Butollo, Florian ;

    Zitatform

    Butollo, Florian (2026): Das knappe Gut Arbeit. Automatisierung, Arbeitskräftemangel und sozialer Konflikt. (Edition Suhrkamp 2815), Berlin: Suhrkamp Verlag, 254 Seiten.

    Abstract

    "Angesichts von Digitalisierung und Künstlicher Intelligenz wird allerorten vor massiven Arbeitsplatzverlusten gewarnt. Gleichzeitig reißen die Klagen über Fachkräftemangel nicht ab, zahllose Stellen bleiben unbesetzt, und dem Pflegesektor droht der Kollaps. Florian Butollo geht diesem Paradoxon auf den Grund und analysiert, warum gerade Automatisierung immer mehr Arbeit schafft – und damit zur Keimzelle eines neuen sozialen Konflikts wird: Die anbrechende Ära der Arbeitskräfteknappheit ist geprägt vom Leiden an Überlastung und den Kämpfen dagegen. Zugleich stellt sich die Frage nach der Sinnhaftigkeit von Arbeit neu: Wofür wollen wir angesichts sozialer und ökologischer Krisen künftig unsere Arbeitskraft einsetzen – und welche Tätigkeiten können verschwinden?" (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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    Crowdwork als Beruf?: Subjektivierung, Kompetenzerwerb und Lernen in der digitalen Plattformarbeit (2026)

    Büchter, Karin; Li-Gottwald, Jiayin; Kleemann, Frank; Schlömer, Tobias; Eckelt, Marcus; Krzywdzinski, Martin ;

    Zitatform

    Büchter, Karin, Tobias Schlömer, Frank Kleemann, Martin Krzywdzinski, Marcus Eckelt & Jiayin Li-Gottwald (Hrsg.) (2026): Crowdwork als Beruf? Subjektivierung, Kompetenzerwerb und Lernen in der digitalen Plattformarbeit. Verlag Barbara Budrich: Berlin, 314 S. DOI:10.3224/84743131

    Abstract

    "Crowdwork ist eine junge Arbeitsform, bei der einzelne Arbeitstätigkeiten über Online-Plattformen an externe Arbeitskräfte vergeben werden. Der Band präsentiert Erkenntnisse aus einem breit angelegten Forschungsprojekt, in dem arbeitssoziologische, berufs- und wirtschaftspädagogische Perspektiven auf das Tätigsein, auf Lernpraktiken von Crowdworker*innen und auf die individuelle Bedeutung plattformbasierter Arbeit eingenommen werden. Die Beiträge setzen sich mit Aspekten wie Subjektivierung, Wissensgenerierung, Kompetenzentwicklung, Beruflichkeit und Lernen in der plattformbasierten Arbeit auseinander." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Becoming The Man Without Qualities? Deskilling in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (2026)

    Cantarella, Michele ; Molinari, Giuseppe; Strozzi, Chiara ;

    Zitatform

    Cantarella, Michele, Giuseppe Molinari & Chiara Strozzi (2026): Becoming The Man Without Qualities? Deskilling in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. (IZA discussion paper / IZA Network @ LISER 18751), Esch-sur-Alzette, 49 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper investigates how Artificial Intelligence reshapes the human capabilities that jobs require. Using longitudinal O*NET data for the U.S. labour market over 2011-2025, we distinguish among three types of human capabilities - abilities, skills, and knowledge - and construct two measures of human capabilities - exposure to AI: one based on observed progress in Generative AI benchmark performance and one based on the broader evolution of AI-related scientific and public attention. We document a dual pattern. Within occupations, greater AI exposure is associated with higher proficiency requirements for selected capabilities. At the occupational level, more exposed occupations exhibit a compression in the overall breadth of capabilities required. Together, these findings suggest that AI is driving a process of occupational restructuring, leading to more specialized and less diverse capability profiles embedded in jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Making digital welfare work: conceptualizing digital compensatory work by frontline professionals (2026)

    Carlsson, Julia S.; Svensson, Petra M.; Hjärpe, Teres;

    Zitatform

    Carlsson, Julia S., Teres Hjärpe & Petra M. Svensson (2026): Making digital welfare work: conceptualizing digital compensatory work by frontline professionals. In: Journal of Professions and Organization, Jg. 13, H. 3, S. 1-17. DOI:10.1093/jpo/joag011

    Abstract

    "Digital technologies in welfare organizations frequently generate gaps, ambiguities, and misalignments that require professional intervention. Yet prior research has tended to portray frontline workers mainly as resistant or adaptive actors, leaving under-examined their active contributions to sustaining broader digital infrastructures. This article introduces the concept of digital compensatory work to capture how professionals intervene when specific digital technologies fall short of their own standards for professional service delivery. Drawing on an exploratory literature review, we identify three forms of such compensatory work: complementing digital technologies, rectifying their shortcomings, and dismissing them when they conflict with professional judgment. By theorizing these practices, the article expands existing understandings of professional discretion in digital welfare services, shifting attention from resistance and adaptation to value-driven interventions that actively uphold service quality within digital infrastructures. In doing so, it contributes to debates on digital welfare and highlights the essential role of professional agency in sustaining human service organizations under conditions of digital transformation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era (2026)

    Casas, P.; González-Vázquez, I.; Salotti, S.; Martínez-Plumed, F.; Gómez, E.; Fernández-Macías, E.;

    Zitatform

    Casas, P., E. Fernández-Macías, F. Martínez-Plumed, E. Gómez, I. González-Vázquez & S. Salotti (2026): Revisiting the occupational impact of AI in the generative AI era. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2026,02), Sevilla, 71 S.

    Abstract

    "Generative AI is reshaping what artificial intelligence can do in the workplace, calling into question pre-GenAI assessments of which workers and tasks are most exposed. In this paper we trace the evolution of AI exposure in the European labour market from 2008 to 2024 by linking 352 AI benchmarks to 14 cognitive abilities, 108 work tasks and 127 ISCO-3 occupations, weighting benchmarks by their research intensity in the AI literature and thus deriving AI exposure by cognitive ability. Bundling work tasks into occupations based on intensity indicators, we explore occupational exposure to AI. We find that the cognitive abilities most exposed to the recent surge of AI research are ideas-related, such as attention and search, comprehension and expression and logical reasoning. Because the associated information processing and problem-solving tasks are the most transversal across occupations, we find an exponential increase in AI exposure across all occupational categories of workers, even though comparatively high-skilled occupations are more exposed than elementary occupations. This points at a substantial and transversal labour market impact of AI." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Innovation and Income Inequalities: Comparing Entrepreneurial State and Standard Welfare Policies (2026)

    Castellacci, Fulvio ;

    Zitatform

    Castellacci, Fulvio (2026): Innovation and Income Inequalities: Comparing Entrepreneurial State and Standard Welfare Policies. In: The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, Jg. 26, H. 3, S. 923-968. DOI:10.1515/bejeap-2025-0421

    Abstract

    "Innovation fosters economic growth and the long-run dynamics of national economies. However, recent literature shows that innovation is also a source of increasing income inequalities. Public policies face thus an important trade-off between efficiency and equity effects of innovation. What are the possible policy strategies to address this trade-off? The paper presents a model in which innovations can be developed by both private firms and public companies. Technological change increases the profit share in the long-run, exacerbating income inequalities between firms’ owners, employed workers, and the unemployed. I empirically calibrate the model for the US economy and carry out a simulation analysis to investigate the effects of different policies aimed at reducing the inequality effects of innovation. Specifically, the analysis compares two distinct policy strategies: one is based on a standard economic policy approach that increases taxes to finance welfare spending; the other is based on a new approach – the Entrepreneurial State – in which the profits of innovations developed by public R&D companies are used to finance welfare programs. The results point out the advantages and drawbacks of different strategies and show that the optimal policy strategy largely depends on the policy maker’s preferencesregarding the income distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    How welfare states influence online platform work in Europe (2026)

    Chueri, Juliana ; Törnberg, Petter;

    Zitatform

    Chueri, Juliana & Petter Törnberg (2026): How welfare states influence online platform work in Europe. In: Journal of European Social Policy, Jg. 36, H. 2, S. 119-135. DOI:10.1177/09589287251357463

    Abstract

    "Digital labor platforms are reshaping global labor markets by enabling the transnational contracting of service workers. While the dominant perspective emphasizes market forces, predicting that lower-wage countries will dominate the supply side, this view overlooks the institutional context in which platform labor emerges. This paper advances the argument that national welfare institutions are key to shaping participation in the platform economy. We provide the first large-scale cross-national comparative analysis of platform labor, combining micro-level data from one of the world’s largest remote work platforms with country-level indicators from 26 European countries. In line with market expectations, we find that lower-wage countries supply most low-skilled labor, while higher-wage countries show a more balanced distribution between low- and high-skilled workers. Crucially, however, our analysis reveals that greater welfare state generosity is associated with lower levels of platform participation, especially in low-skilled occupations. We argue that platform labor cannot be understood solely as a function of technological change or wage differentials. It is also an expression of structural constraints: where social protections are weak, people are more likely to turn to precarious forms of online work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    The EU compromise machine and the politicisation of social policy: Lessons from the regulation of platform work (2026)

    Crespy, Amandine ; Marenco, Matteo ; Spasova, Slavina ; Kenn, Bastian ;

    Zitatform

    Crespy, Amandine, Bastian Kenn, Matteo Marenco & Slavina Spasova (2026): The EU compromise machine and the politicisation of social policy: Lessons from the regulation of platform work. In: Journal of European Social Policy, Jg. 36, H. 1, S. 18-33. DOI:10.1177/09589287251345912

    Abstract

    "Over the past few years, the legal status and the working conditions of platform workers have been among the most debated manifestations of the digital transformation of work. Tense negotiations on the EU platform work directive (from 2021 to 2024) epitomize long-standing conflicts in EU social policymaking, namely the opposition between capital and labor, on the one hand, and resistance to EU involvement or impact on Member States’ social arrangements, on the other. This paper provides an in-depth inquiry of the policy process by focussing specifically on the presumption of employment in platform work, which was first proposed as an EU-wide provision and eventually nationalized with its definition left to national arrangements. Drawing on this case and mobilizing the literature on positive integration entrepreneurship, and politicization, we shed light on the ‘drivers’ and ‘inhibitors’ of EU social regulation. On the one hand, we provide evidence that joint entrepreneurship of the European Parliament (EP) and the European Commission is a primary driver and argue for acknowledging the role of the EP as a key entrepreneur of ‘Social Europe’. On the other hand, divisions in the Council, underpinned by domestic politics, hinder ambitious social policy regulation at EU level in several respects. Furthermore, we tease out the role of politicization and theorize its ambivalent role as both a driver and inhibitor, depending on contingent party political orientations, contextual factors, but also the role played by Council presidencies, so far overlooked in the literature. We conclude that the drivers and inhibitors we identify, and the resulting dynamics of compromise, are relevant beyond the case of platform work. While stressing the crucial, yet ambivalent, role of politicization, our findings cast a shadow on what has recently been described as a great come back of ‘Social Europe’ with the European Pillar of Social Rights." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Measuring Task-Based Advanced Automation Technologies & Digital Assistance Systems in the National Educational Panel Study (2026)

    Dicks, Alexander ; Schulz, Benjamin; Grüttgen, Insa; Vicari, Basha ; Ehlert, Martin;

    Zitatform

    Dicks, Alexander, Martin Ehlert, Insa Grüttgen, Benjamin Schulz & Basha Vicari (2026): Measuring Task-Based Advanced Automation Technologies & Digital Assistance Systems in the National Educational Panel Study. (NEPS Survey Papers 128), Bamberg, 31 S. DOI:10.5157/NEPS:SP128:1.0

    Abstract

    "Wir stellen ein neues taskbasiertes Instrument zur Messung der Automatisierung am Arbeitsplatz vor. Dabei bezeichnen wir die Automatisierungstechnologien als „digitale Assistenzsysteme“, die wir als fortschrittliche Automatisierungssysteme definieren, wie beispielsweise Software und Geräte, die Aufgaben automatisch ausführen, um die Arbeitnehmer zu unterstützen. Dazu gehören Chatbots mit künstlicher Intelligenz, Algorithmen zur Bild- und Videoerstellung, Tools für vorausschauende Wartung und Analyse, digitale Anleitungssysteme sowie Wearables und kollaborative Roboter. Aufbauend auf dem taskbasierten Ansatz und unter Berücksichtigung der jüngsten technologischen Fortschritte haben wir für das Nationale Bildungspanel (NEPS) sieben Items entwickelt, die verschiedene Arten von digitalen Assistenzsystemen erfassen. Ergebnisse auf Grundlage von Daten der NEPS-Startkohorten 4 und 6 zeigen, dass die Nutzung der digitalen Assistenzsysteme je nach Alter und Bildungsniveau variiert und mit komplementären beruflichen Aufgaben sowie Indikatoren für die Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz korreliert. Das neue Instrument ergänzt bestehende NEPS-Items zur Digitalisierung am Arbeitsplatz und bietet Potenzial für eine Längsschnittanalyse des technologischen Wandels am Arbeitsplatz und dessen Auswirkungen auf Qualifikationsanforderungen, Ungleichheit und lebenslanges Lernen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Vicari, Basha ;
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    Biased by Design? Case Managers' Multidimensional Preferences Toward the Design of Algorithmic Decision Support Systems (2026)

    Dietz, Martin ; Sirman-Winkler, Mareike ; Osiander, Christopher ; Tepe, Markus ;

    Zitatform

    Dietz, Martin, Christopher Osiander, Mareike Sirman-Winkler & Markus Tepe (2026): Biased by Design? Case Managers' Multidimensional Preferences Toward the Design of Algorithmic Decision Support Systems. In: Public Administration Review, S. 1-14. DOI:10.1111/puar.70111

    Abstract

    "This study examines whether street-level bureaucrats' preferences toward algorithmic decision support (ADS) induce a unilateral shift of technology-related risks onto clients of the public employment service. Expanding on public value theory and research on moral agency in public service work, we argue that case managers' choices of ADS designs are shaped by a plurality of professional, service, and efficiency values. To test this argument, we conducted a conjoint experiment on a representative sample of German Federal Employment Agency case managers. Respondents compared pairs of hypothetical ADS systems that differed in their design features, reflecting varying degrees of the realization of public values. The empirical results indicate that case managers' choices do not result in biased design. Instead, case managers balance design features reflecting professional and service values while maintaining administrative efficiency. Case managers appreciate ADS support but firmly reject the mandatory use of such advice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

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    Dietz, Martin ; Osiander, Christopher ;
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    Gendered Parenthood and Platform Work Across European Welfare Regimes (2026)

    Drewes, Timon Kai ;

    Zitatform

    Drewes, Timon Kai (2026): Gendered Parenthood and Platform Work Across European Welfare Regimes. In: New Technology, Work and Employment, S. 1-21. DOI:10.1111/ntwe.70035

    Abstract

    "Digital platform labour has been growing and meanwhile successfully established in many parts of the world. Yet participation in platform work not only varies markedly across countries but also by individual-level factors such as gender and parenthood. This paper explains variation in mothers' and fathers' participation in platform work by linking gender and parenthood to welfare regime settings. Using pooled COLLEEM survey data (2017–2018) for Italy, Spain, Germany, Sweden and the UK, I estimate linear probability models of monthly platform work participation. Parenthood is associated with higher platform work participation in all five countries, but the increase is smallest in Germany and Sweden and largest in Spain, the UK, and moderately in Italy. Gender patterns vary by regime: mothers' participation is more responsive to parental-support institutions than fathers', while fathers' parenthood effects are especially pronounced in the UK and Spain. Overall, platform work seems to function as an adaptive strategy shaped by welfare regime settings and gendered care arrangements." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Impact of robotics on unemployment: Moderating effect of the national culture (2026)

    Du, Guangjie ; Lodh, Suman ; Nandy, Monomita ; Kumar, Vikas ; Dabić, Marina ; Choudrie, Jyoti ;

    Zitatform

    Du, Guangjie, Suman Lodh, Monomita Nandy, Marina Dabić, Vikas Kumar & Jyoti Choudrie (2026): Impact of robotics on unemployment: Moderating effect of the national culture. In: Technological forecasting & social change, Jg. 227. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2026.124643

    Abstract

    "The integration of robotics has created significant opportunities while simultaneously introduced labour market challenges. The aim of this exploratory research is to investigate the impact of robotic adoption on unemployment in a cross-country context. By presenting a novel theoretical framework that integrates the Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT) and the Absorptive Capacity Theory (ACT), and analysing a panel data from 33 countries, we show that countries with stronger absorptive capacity are better positioned to convert robotics adoption into employment gains. We further test whether national culture, proxied by Hofstede's cultural dimensions, moderates this relationship, uncovering a substantial heterogeneity across six cultural factors. This provides a practical blueprint for policymakers with clear evidence that uniform approaches to robotics adoption are unlikely to be effective and robotics policies must be tailored to local cultural norms, institutional capabilities, and national readiness. The policymaker should prioritise capability building alongside adjustment measures that support inclusive labour-market transitions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.) ((en))

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    Algorithmic Profiling: Effective Tool for Targeting Active Labour Market Policies? (2026)

    Eppel, Rainer ; Schmoigl, Lukas ; Huemer, Ulrike; Mahringer, Helmut;

    Zitatform

    Eppel, Rainer, Ulrike Huemer, Helmut Mahringer & Lukas Schmoigl (2026): Algorithmic Profiling: Effective Tool for Targeting Active Labour Market Policies? In: Labour, S. 1-20. DOI:10.1111/labr.70013

    Abstract

    "Digitisation has sparked interest in automated decision making in Public Employment Services (PES). We evaluate an algorithmic profiling model in Austria that predicts the reemployment prospects of unemployed individuals to classify and assign them to active labour market policies. Our analysis shows that reallocating resources from jobseekers with low to medium prospects, as proposed by the PES, does not yield the expected efficiency gains. We find no systematic evidence that programmes are less effective for individuals with low predicted employment prospects than for those with medium prospects. These findings caution against crude algorithmic profiling and highlight the need for nuanced targeting strategies that prioritise the most disadvantaged jobseekers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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    Digitalization and remote work in peripheral labour markets in the Nordic region (2026)

    Eythórsson, Grétar Thór; Jóhannesson, Hjalti;

    Zitatform

    Eythórsson, Grétar Thór & Hjalti Jóhannesson (2026): Digitalization and remote work in peripheral labour markets in the Nordic region. In: Regional Science Policy & Practice, Jg. 18, H. 8. DOI:10.1016/j.rspp.2026.100321

    Abstract

    "This article explores the impact of technological transformation as one of the global megatrends in modern times. We focus on how new technologies, especially digitalization, have made it possible for people in peripheral places to work remotely. The focus is on the case municipalities in Iceland, especially Húsavík in in Norðurþing in northern Iceland, but also in a comparative context with remote municipalities in Norway, Sweden, and Åland. The empirical data used is from the Nordic project SUNREM (Sustainable Nordic Remote Labour Markets), which has been studying the impacts of megatrends on the sustainability of remote labour markets in four Nordic countries. Data is collected from in-depth interviews with stakeholders, policymakers, and ordinary citizens in seven selected cases in the four countries. The key research questions dealt with here are: What is the situation of remote work in selected cases in Nordic sparsely populated areas? What preconditions are needed for remote digital working? Has remote work made the labour market more sustainable? The main conclusions are that remote working exists in all of the Nordic cases investigated. The town of Húsavík in the municipality of Norðurþing in North Iceland, stands out with its well-developed remote work centres. There are clear signs that facilities where people can work and meet other remote workers are important. This enables broader recruitment into the labour market, since for example spouses can use this option, enabling them to move to more remote places. Remote work from people’s homes has some disadvantages, as pointed out by various researchers, and therefore infrastructure for remote working contributes to making labour markets in the periphery more sustainable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of The Regional Science Association International.) ((en))

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    Toward a Bad Job Economy: AI Adoption, Agency Costs, and Job Design (2026)

    Fahn, Matthias; Li, Jin ; Sun, Chang;

    Zitatform

    Fahn, Matthias, Jin Li & Chang Sun (2026): Toward a Bad Job Economy: AI Adoption, Agency Costs, and Job Design. (CESifo working paper 12612), München, 23 S., App.

    Abstract

    "We study how AI affects compensation and job design when performance depends on workers' non-contractible effort. In a principal–agent model with limited liability, AI reduces effort costs but disproportionately lowers the cost of achieving satisfactory performance. This raises the incentive cost of sustaining high effort and can induce firms to replace high-wage, high-effort good jobs with low-wage, low-effort bad jobs, even when good jobs create more total surplus. As a result, AI can lower wages, reduce worker welfare, and even depress profits. If workers can adopt AI unilaterally, adoption occurs even when the resulting equilibrium harms both parties; when adoption requires worker cooperation, resistance is strongest where AI erodes rents embodied in good jobs. In a search-and-matching extension, endogenous outside options amplify these forces, reinforcing a bad-job economy and potentially reducing employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Arbeitsmarktsituation im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, hier: Maschinenbau (2026)

    Fleischer, Nicole;

    Zitatform

    Fleischer, Nicole (2026): Arbeitsmarktsituation im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, hier: Maschinenbau. (Berichte: Arbeitsmarkt kompakt / Bundesagentur für Arbeit), Nürnberg, 27 S.

    Abstract

    "Der Maschinenbau ist eine der innovativsten Branchen des Landes. Dennoch drängen neben der aktuellen konjunkturellen Schwäche auch der zunehmende Wettbewerbs- und Transformationsdruck, schwieriger werdende internationale Handelsbedingungen und Kostensteigerungen zu einer stetigen Weiterentwicklung der Branche. Die tendenziell positive Umsatzentwicklung im Maschinenbau setzte sich zuletzt nicht mehr im bisherigen Maße fort. Etwa zwei Drittel des Umsatzes wurden durch Exporte erwirtschaftet. Die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung im Maschinenbau geht seit Frühjahr 2024 zunehmend zurück. Mit knapp 1,03 Millionen lag deren Zahl im Juni 2025 auf dem Niveau der Juni-Werte von 2016/2017. Die sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschäftigten im Maschinenbau sind im Vergleich zu den Beschäftigten anderer Branchen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes deutlich höher qualifiziert. Wie in vielen Branchen dürften auch im Maschinenbau in den kommenden Jahren allein demografiebedingt deutlich mehr Menschen aus dem Erwerbsleben ausscheiden, als im Moment jüngere Beschäftigte nachrücken. Zudem sind im Maschinenbau vergleichsweise selten Frauen und Ausländer beschäftigt. Auch der Anteil der Beschäftigten, die in Teilzeit arbeiten, ist unterdurchschnittlich. Der Maschinenbau weist anteilig überdurchschnittlich viele Großbetriebe auf. Dadurch fallen gravierende Personalveränderungen einzelner Unternehmen bei der Beschäftigungsentwicklung gerade auch regional stärker ins Gewicht. Das Medianentgelt in der Branche stieg seit 2014 zwar in weniger starkem Umfang als die Entgelte über alle Branchen hinweg, übertraf dieses zuletzt aber dennoch deutlich. Auf lange Sicht hat sich die Arbeitslosigkeit in den beiden beschäftigungsstärksten Berufen des Maschinenbaus besser entwickelt als die Arbeitslosigkeit insgesamt. Die momentane wirtschaftliche Schwäche zeigt sich auch in den Maschinenbauberufen durch einen Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit. Nichtsdestotrotz liegt im Maschinenbau das Risiko, arbeitslos zu werden, ebenso wie die Arbeitslosenquote, auf einem sehr niedrigen Niveau." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt - Fluch und Segen zugleich (2026)

    Franke, Andreas; Hildt, Elisabeth;

    Zitatform

    Franke, Andreas & Elisabeth Hildt (2026): Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt - Fluch und Segen zugleich. In: IAB-Forum H. 16.03.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260316.01

    Abstract

    "Die Arbeitswelt unterliegt seit einigen Jahren einer rasanten Digitalisierung. Damit sind sowohl Chancen als auch Risiken für die psychische Gesundheit der Beschäftigten verbunden. Zudem ergeben sich daraus handfeste ethische Implikationen. So droht nicht zuletzt ein Gerechtigkeitsproblem, weil bestimmte Gruppen von Beschäftigten eher Gefahr laufen als andere, durch die Digitalisierung Nachteile zu erfahren und mit der digitalen Entwicklung nicht mehr Schritt halten zu können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Künstliche Intelligenz in deutschen Betrieben: Jeder vierte Betrieb nutzt mittlerweile generative KI (2026)

    Friedrich, Martin ; Kagerl, Christian ;

    Zitatform

    Friedrich, Martin & Christian Kagerl (2026): Künstliche Intelligenz in deutschen Betrieben: Jeder vierte Betrieb nutzt mittlerweile generative KI. (IAB-Kurzbericht 08/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2608

    Abstract

    "Generativer Künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) wird häufig bescheinigt, die Wirtschaft fundamental zu verändern. Wie verbreitet diese Technologie bereits in deutschen Betrieben ist, zeigen aktuelle Auswertungen aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel. Daten zum Themenschwerpunkt „Generative KI“ wurden 2025 erstmals erhoben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Friedrich, Martin ; Kagerl, Christian ;
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    App-based delivery services in Germany: Why people take up gig-work and usually quit quickly (2026)

    Friedrich, Martin ; Helm, Ines ; Müller, Christoph ; Jost, Ramona ; Lang, Julia ;

    Zitatform

    Friedrich, Martin, Ines Helm, Ramona Jost, Julia Lang & Christoph Müller (2026): App-based delivery services in Germany: Why people take up gig-work and usually quit quickly. In: IAB-Forum H. 27.04.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260427.01

    Abstract

    "App-based delivery services have spread rapidly in Germany in recent years. This has also fuelled public debate about the poor working conditions of the gig-workers in these services. However, there is still little reliable information about what motivates people to take on gig-work. Similarly, little is known about workers’ reasons for leaving these mostly short-term jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Retirement decisions in the age of COVID-19 pandemic: are older employees in digital occupations working longer? (2026)

    Gallo, Giovanni ; Nagore García, Amparo;

    Zitatform

    Gallo, Giovanni & Amparo Nagore García (2026): Retirement decisions in the age of COVID-19 pandemic: are older employees in digital occupations working longer? In: Review of Economics of the Household, S. 1-34. DOI:10.1007/s11150-025-09827-9

    Abstract

    "This paper investigates the retirement response to the pandemic and to the resulting acceleration in the adoption of new technologies. Using the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions datasets and leveraging the natural experiment of many workers being forced to work from home in Europe during the lockdown, we compare the retirement response of older workers in digital occupations (i.e. more exposed to the accelerated adoption of new technologies) versus non-digital occupations to detect any differences in retirement behaviour, which we interpret as digitalization effects. In addition, we analyze changes in retirement decisions by gender and geographic area. We find that retirement rates increased during COVID-19 in Europe, especially in Mediterranean countries and among women. This trend may be linked to gender occupational segregation. In Mediterranean countries, digitalization increases female retirement, likely due to challenges in balancing digital work and family responsibilities while working from home. In Eastern countries, and to a lesser extent in Northern countries, digitalization leads to postponing retirement among women, likely due to greater gender equality in unpaid work. In contrast, the retirement age for men is less affected by the pandemic with no significant differences between digital and non-digital occupations. This may exacerbate the existing gender gap in labor force participation and pension outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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    Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation (2026)

    Gans, Joshua S. ;

    Zitatform

    Gans, Joshua S. (2026): Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 35211), Cambridge, Mass, 48 S.

    Abstract

    "Empirical measures of AI's wage effect typically hold fixed the bundle of activities a worker is paid for at its pre-AI shape. We argue that this assumption hides much of the action. When automation breaks a job apart, firms decide how to recombine the surviving activities; whether they rebundle them into one broad role or split them into specialist roles changes which surviving skills the labour market actually rewards. A skill that played no role in the pre-AI wage can become the dominant component of the post-AI wage, while a skill that anchored the pre-AI wage can disappear from the schedule. We develop an assignment model in which the priced human bundle is endogenous, and we use it to show that a fixed-bundle wage regression can mis-sign the effect of AI exposure. In general, the omitted-redesign bias has no unconditional sign: it is the residual covariance between exposure and role-specific redesign terms. Under explicit sufficient conditions, exposure-correlated unbundling loads specialist comparative-advantage premia onto the exposure coefficient, while exposure-correlated rebundling loads a different, often opposite, omitted term. The sign must therefore be measured from local post-AI partition changes rather than assumed from exposure alone." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Nutzung und Verwendung von Künstlicher Intelligenz in Betrieben in Baden-Württemberg: Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels Baden-Württemberg (2026)

    Gasparro, Jonah; Wiemann, Jan Simon;

    Zitatform

    Gasparro, Jonah & Jan Simon Wiemann (2026): Nutzung und Verwendung von Künstlicher Intelligenz in Betrieben in Baden-Württemberg. Auswertung des IAB-Betriebspanels Baden-Württemberg. (IAW-Kurzberichte 2026,01), Tübingen, 46 S.

    Abstract

    "KI ist in den Betrieben in Baden-Württemberg angekommen, wird aber noch nicht flächendeckend genutzt. 31 Prozent der Betriebe nutzen generative und/oder nicht-generative KI. Die Nutzung wird vor allem von generativer KI getragen: 28 Prozent der Betriebe setzen generative KI ein; damit liegt Baden-Württemberg über dem deutschlandweiten Vergleichswert von 24 Prozent. Nicht-generative KI ist mit 7 Prozent deutlich seltener verbreitet. KI wurde überwiegend erst ab 2024 in den Betrieben eingeführt. Die Nutzung von KI unterscheidet sich deutlich nach Betriebsgröße und Branche. Größere Betriebe nutzen KI wesentlich häufiger als kleinere Betriebe. Die Nutzung von KI ist darüber hinaus im Dienstleistungssektor besonders verbreitet. Der Einsatz generativer KI wird bislang nur teilweise durch Investitionen, Weiterbildungsmaßnahmen oder formale Regelungen begleitet. Größere Betriebe weisen solche begleitenden Maßnahmen häufiger als Klein(st)betriebe auf. Betriebe, die derzeit keine KI nutzen und auch keinen künftigen Einsatz planen, begründen dies vor allem mit fehlenden Anwendungsmöglichkeiten. Als weitere Gründe nennen diese Betriebe fehlendes Wissen, Inkompatibilitäten mit bestehenden betrieblichen Strukturen, rechtliche Unsicherheiten sowie Datenschutz- und Datensicherheitsbedenken. Die Nutzung von KI in den Betrieben in Baden-Württemberg hängt besonders deutlich mit der Exportneigung und dem Vorhandensein eines Betriebsrats zusammen. Exportierende Betriebe sowie Betriebe mit Betriebsrat nutzen KI häufiger als nichtexportierende Betriebe beziehungsweise Betriebe ohne Betriebsrat. Im Handwerk ist KI bislang weniger verbreitet als in der Gesamtwirtschaft: Rund 21 Prozent der Handwerksbetriebe nutzen generative und/oder nicht-generative KI." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    AI and Europe's labor market (2026)

    Gathmann, Christina ;

    Zitatform

    Gathmann, Christina (2026): AI and Europe's labor market. In: EconPol Forum, Jg. 27, H. 2, S. 33-38.

    Abstract

    "Adoption of AI has accelerated in Europe, especially after 2022. To adopt AI, firms need employees with data and AI skills, but small firms in particular lack the necessary expertise. AI shifts skill demand in exposed occupations, requiring AI skills combined with judgment and decision-making skills. AI changes what workers do on the job - it has not, so far, destroyed jobs. Productivity gains from AI remain largely invisible in aggregate statistics - so far." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    AI‐powered skill classification: mapping technology intensity in the German labour market (2026)

    Genz, Sabrina ; Lehmer, Florian ; Gregory, Terry ;

    Zitatform

    Genz, Sabrina, Terry Gregory & Florian Lehmer (2026): AI‐powered skill classification: mapping technology intensity in the German labour market. In: Fiscal Studies, Jg. 47, H. 1, S. 25-51., 2026-02-20. DOI:10.1111/1475-5890.70020

    Abstract

    "The rapid evolution of technology is reshaping labour markets by altering skill demands and job profiles. This paper introduces a novel skill-based measure of occupational technology intensity – the occupational technology skill share (OTSS) – that distinguishes between manual, digital and frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI). Using natural language processing, generative AI and supervised machine learning, we develop an AI-powered skill classification that enriches occupation-linked skill labels with standardised GenAI-generated descriptions and structured indicators of technological content, enabling transparent classification by technology intensity. We compute OTSS for all occupations in the German labour market. For the average worker in 2023, manual technologies account for the largest share of skill content (42 per cent), followed by digital (38 per cent) and frontier technologies (20 per cent). Frontier technologies remain concentrated in specialised occupations, while digital technologies are widespread. Linking these measures to administrative data from 2012 to 2023 shows a broad shift from manual and digital toward frontier skills across occupations, and reveals a non-linear, U-shaped relationship between changes in frontier skill intensity and employment growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Lehmer, Florian ;
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    Outsourcing Domestic Work in the Crisis of Social Reproduction: Platform‐Mediated Cleaning and the Role of Clients (2026)

    Gerold, Stefanie ; Gruszka, Katarzyna ; Sardadvar, Karin ; Pillinger, Anna ; Theine, Hendrik ;

    Zitatform

    Gerold, Stefanie, Katarzyna Gruszka, Karin Sardadvar, Hendrik Theine & Anna Pillinger (2026): Outsourcing Domestic Work in the Crisis of Social Reproduction: Platform‐Mediated Cleaning and the Role of Clients. In: New Technology, Work and Employment, Jg. 41, H. 2, S. 186-197. DOI:10.1111/ntwe.70015

    Abstract

    "Amid the crisis of social reproduction, outsourcing domestic work has become increasingly appealing, with labour platforms offering new avenues to do so. This article explores the largely overlooked perspective of clients using platform-mediated cleaning services, focusing on Helpling in Germany. Drawing on a multi-method study, we examine clients’ motivations for hiring cleaners through platforms and their perceptions of working conditions. We also analyse interactions between clients and cleaners, and how these are shaped by the platform. Our findings suggest that platforms like Helpling are attractive because of their convenience and their promise of an allegedly legal alternative to informal arrangements. While some clients express concerns over precarious working conditions, others justify them through market logic or assumptions about cleaners’ backgrounds. The platform infrastructure helps mediate trust, yet personal relations between clients and cleaners limit the platform's strategy of delegating management and control mechanisms to clients." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Technology adoption and migration dynamics: A gravity model analysis of bilateral flows (2026)

    Ghodsi, Mahdi ; Barišić, Antea ; Landesmann, Michael ;

    Zitatform

    Ghodsi, Mahdi, Michael Landesmann & Antea Barišić (2026): Technology adoption and migration dynamics: A gravity model analysis of bilateral flows. In: Technology in Society, Jg. 86. DOI:10.1016/j.techsoc.2026.103298

    Abstract

    "This paper explores the complex interplay between technology adoption, specifically robotisation and digitalisation, and international migration within the EU and other advanced economies, including Australia, the UK, Japan, Norway and the US, over the period 2001-2019. Utilising a gravity model approach grounded in neoclassical migration theory, the study analyses how technological advancements influence migration flows. The research uniquely integrates these technological factors into migration analysis, considering both push and pull effects and reveals two main results: (1) In migration origin countries, higher adoption of both digitalisation and robotisation is associated with lower emigration, suggesting ‘complementarity’ between technologies and workers, i.e. less incentive to emigrate when the level of technology adoption was higher. This indicates that technology adoption at origin is associated with better opportunities in the labour market and weaker incentives to emigrate. (2) In migration destination countries, the results indicate a more differentiated picture in that we find some evidence for a ‘substitution’ effect with regard to higher levels of digital assets adoption but a ‘complementarity’ effect with respect to higher levels of robotisation. Additionally,this study accounts for various other migration determinants including macroeconomic conditions, demography and policy factors. The findings reveal insights about the relationships between technological progress, labour market conditions and migration patterns, thereby contributing significantly to current literature and suggests implications for migration policies and accelerated technology adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those fortext and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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    Flexibility and Social Protection in the Gig Economy: Experimental Evidence on Work Location and Scheduling (2026)

    Ghorpade, Yashodhan; Abdur Rahman, Amanina; Jasmin, Alyssa;

    Zitatform

    Ghorpade, Yashodhan, Alyssa Jasmin & Amanina Abdur Rahman (2026): Flexibility and Social Protection in the Gig Economy: Experimental Evidence on Work Location and Scheduling. (IZA discussion paper / IZA Network @ LISER 18589), Esch-sur-Alzette, 26 S.

    Abstract

    "Debates on gig work often treat flexibility and social protection as substitutes. This paper shows that gig workers value different forms of flexibility differently, and that preferences for flexibility and social protection can be complementary. Using discrete-choice experiments with digital freelancers in Malaysia, with standard workers as a benchmark, we examine preferences for work location and scheduling autonomy. Four findings emerge. First, gig workers strongly value spatial autonomy and are willing to pay to work-from-home. Second, preferences for scheduling flexibility are heterogeneous, with many, including freelancers, preferring fixed schedules. Third, willingness to pay for long-term protection in the form of retirement savings increases with both types of autonomy. Fourth, willingness to pay for unemployment insurance is linked only to work-location flexibility. Gig workers possibly associate remote work, but not flexible hours, with greater employment uncertainty, and therefore demand stronger protection against unemployment risks. Flexibility and protection can therefore act as complements rather than substitutes in the gig economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Contextualizing inequalities in the gig economy: evidence from online cleaning platforms in five European cities (2026)

    Giuliani, Giovanni Amerigo ; Paraciani, Rebecca ;

    Zitatform

    Giuliani, Giovanni Amerigo & Rebecca Paraciani (2026): Contextualizing inequalities in the gig economy: evidence from online cleaning platforms in five European cities. In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 46, H. 5-6, S. 736-755. DOI:10.1108/ijssp-12-2024-0619

    Abstract

    "Purpose: This paper explores the impact of national contexts on the profile of workers in the gig economy, with a specific focus on online cleaning platforms. The study aims to understand how national contexts influence the gender and ethnic composition of workers on domestic cleaning platforms, examining the intersectional effects of gender and ethnicity in platform-based work. Design/methodology/approach: Focusing on the case of the Yoopies platform operating in five Western European cities – Berlin, Copenhagen, Paris, Rome and Stockholm – this exploratory research is based on an original dataset that combines platform-based data directly collected from Yoopies with national-level data provided by Eurostat. Hypotheses were tested using simple correlation analysis to assess cross-country differences. Findings: The study shows that national contexts play an important role in shaping the gender and ethnic composition of workers on online cleaning platforms. Specifically, it identifies how structural features of the offline labor market influence the gendering and racialization of these platforms, highlighting variations across countries. The research also finds evidence of intersectional effects, where gender and ethnicity intersect to shape the profile of platform workers. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the growing literature on domestic work in the digital platform economy by providing a comparative perspective on cross-country differences in the composition of the platform workforce. It highlights the importance of national offline labor market characteristics in contributing to shaping platform-mediated work and provides new insights into the intersectionality of gender, ethnicity, and work in the gig economy. The findings contribute to both platform economy research and labor market studies, offering implications for policy and future research on the dynamics of digital work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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    The Self-Other Gap in Perceived Automation Risk: Evidence from the United States and Canada (2026)

    Glavin, Paul ; Schieman, Scott ; Wilson, Alexander ;

    Zitatform

    Glavin, Paul, Scott Schieman & Alexander Wilson (2026): The Self-Other Gap in Perceived Automation Risk: Evidence from the United States and Canada. In: Socius, Jg. 12, S. 1-3. DOI:10.1177/23780231261453968

    Abstract

    "This visualization shows a systematic misperception in how workers judge automation risk. Drawing on the 2026 Measuring Employment Sentiments and Social Inequality study, the authors compare paired measures of perceived automation likelihood for self and most others, using nationally representative samples of American and Canadian workers. Approximately three quarters of study participants in both countries rated their own jobs as at low risk of automation in the next few years, yet more than 70 percent believed that most other workers face at least some likelihood of automation. The pattern aligns with pluralistic ignorance: most workers hold one view of their own automation risk while assuming that most others hold a different one. The self-other gap is invariant across occupational categories and across two distinct national contexts, consistent with an informational asymmetry in which beliefs about others’ risk reflect prevailing public narratives about artificial intelligence rather than workers’ direct experience." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Labour productivity gains or offshoring? Implications for post-growth proposals on the future of work (2026)

    Godé, Lukas; Mair, Simon ; Gómez-Baggethun, Erik;

    Zitatform

    Godé, Lukas, Simon Mair & Erik Gómez-Baggethun (2026): Labour productivity gains or offshoring? Implications for post-growth proposals on the future of work. In: Ecological economics, Jg. 239. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108778

    Abstract

    "Two visions prevail about the future of work in sustainable post-growth economies. According to the first, labour productivity gains resulting from technological development will enable to work less. The second contends instead that such gains are not always desirable and could be constrained by a shift towards less polluting production, potentially resulting in more work. Yet, conventional measures of labour productivity on which these proposals are based can conceal a displacement of labour requirements abroad. In this paper, we conduct a case study on Germany in 1995 –2020 to assess whether and to which extent labour productivity gainsresult from offshoring, and implications for post-growth proposals on the future of work. We first retrieve global labour requirements of German production across upstream supply chains. We then decompose conventional labour productivity gains to evaluate whether they result from a reduction in global labour requirements or of their increased displacement towards upstream sectors. Finally, we examine possible impacts on labour offshoring of shifting production to sectors with low productivity gains. We use a socially extended Multi-Regional Input-Output model based on OECD data. Our results show that a quarter of the global labour requirements for German production is provided abroad. This share increased until 2007 before it stabilized or decreased. We identify some potential for working time reduction without increases in labour offshoring. Shifting to service sectors could furthermore reduce labour offshoring relative to production. Yet critically, German production may cover only a fraction of domestic consumption. Related implications for post-growth proposals require further attention." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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    AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market (2026)

    Grenz, Sabrina; Lehmer, Florian ; Gregory, Terry ;

    Zitatform

    Grenz, Sabrina, Terry Gregory & Florian Lehmer (2026): AI-Powered Skill Classification: Mapping Technology Intensity in the German Labor Market. (IZA discussion paper / IZA Network @ LISER 18415), Bonn: IZA Network @ LISER, 47 S.

    Abstract

    "The rapid evolution of technology is reshaping labor markets by altering skill demands and job profiles. This paper introduces a novel skill-based measure of occupational technology intensity – the Occupational Technology Skill Share (OTSS) – that distinguishes between manual, digital, and frontier technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI). Using natural language processing, generative AI, and supervised machine learning, we develop an AI-powered skill classification that enriches occupation linked skill labels with standardized GenAI-generated descriptions and structured indicators of technological content, enabling transparent classification by technology intensity. We compute OTSS for all occupations in the German labor market. For the average worker in 2023, manual technologies account for the largest share of skill content (42%), followed by digital (38%) and frontier technologies (20%). Frontier technologies remain concentrated in specialized occupations, while digital technologies are widespread. Linking these measures to administrative data from 2012–2023 shows a broad shift from manual and digital toward frontier skills across occupations, and reveals a non-linear, U-shaped relationship between changes in frontier skill intensity and employment growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Lehmer, Florian ;
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    Generative AI and Career Choices (2026)

    Gschwendt, Christian ; Viarengo, Martina ; Zoellner, Thea S.;

    Zitatform

    Gschwendt, Christian, Martina Viarengo & Thea S. Zoellner (2026): Generative AI and Career Choices. (Working paper / Swiss Leading House 251), Zürich, 52 S.

    Abstract

    "The economic impact of technological change will critically depend on how future workers invest in their human capital. Yet, little is known about how future workers themselves evaluate and choose their educational and occupational paths in light of emerging technologies. This paper examines how adolescents currently at the school-to-work transition stage value working with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in their future occupations, and how automation risk and opportunities for continuing education shape these preferences. We field a discrete-choice experiment among a nationally representative sample of over 7,000 Swiss adolescents aged around 15. We find that adolescents generally exhibit an aversion to collaborating with GenAI at work, with females consistently more averse than males. However, preferences are nuanced: adolescents welcome greater GenAI collaboration, provided that GenAI usage levels remain moderate and that it is not accompanied by increases in job-automation risk. Finally, continuing education opportunities in occupations improve attitudes towards working with GenAI across genders. Our results challenge simple narratives of technology acceptance or rejection, revealing that adolescents' willingness to work with GenAI depends on how it is implemented - its intensity, associated displacement risks, and accompanying skill development - rather than the technology itself. Our findings suggest that the way future workers value GenAI collaboration in their career choices critically depends on its intensity and on the interplay with automation risk and AI-related educational opportunities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Automation, skill and job creation (2026)

    Guo, Kaizhao ;

    Zitatform

    Guo, Kaizhao (2026): Automation, skill and job creation. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 70, H. 5. DOI:10.1007/s00181-026-02912-7

    Abstract

    "This paper explores the heterogeneous effects of automation technologies on employment rate across US regions from different income groups, and investigates mechanisms through proportion of skilled workers. Automation, measured by both robotic penetration and ICT trade volumes, is replacing labour force. Exploiting variations across US commuting zones, this study finds that employment reductions are significant and substantial in low and middle income areas, and rising income levels could cause insignificant employment responses. Leveraging shift-share IV strategies and generalised model specifications, further evidence suggests that a simple net job creation channel can explain these patterns. Specifically, displacement effects outweigh productivity effects in low income CZs with lower proportion of skilled labour, and job losses are larger in middle income CZs with concentration of routine occupations; job creations are complementing job destructions with growing income levels and higher skill shares. These technical changes are particularly significant in manufacturing sectors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Arbeitszeit, Produktivität, KI - wie Deutschland sein Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren kann: Teil des Zeitgesprächs "Arbeitszeit im Wandel - Wie sich Wohlstand trotz sinkenden Arbeitskräfteangebots sichern lässt" (2026)

    Hammermann, Andrea; Stettes, Oliver;

    Zitatform

    Hammermann, Andrea & Oliver Stettes (2026): Arbeitszeit, Produktivität, KI - wie Deutschland sein Arbeitskräfteangebot stabilisieren kann. Teil des Zeitgesprächs "Arbeitszeit im Wandel - Wie sich Wohlstand trotz sinkenden Arbeitskräfteangebots sichern lässt". In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 106, H. 4, S. 248-252. DOI:10.2478/wd-2026-0064

    Abstract

    "Längere Arbeitszeiten können einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Stabilisierung des Arbeitskräfteangebots leisten, während Investitionen in technologischen und organisatorischen Fortschritt notwendig sind, um die Arbeitsproduktivität zu steigern. Vor diesem Hintergrund geht der Beitrag der Frage nach, wie sich das Arbeitskräfteangebot in Deutschland trotz des demografischen Wandels stabilisieren und der Wohlstand langfristig sichern lässt. Empirische Befunde legen nahe, dass KI und Humankapital in der Regel komplementär wirken und KIAnwendungen menschliche Arbeit eher ergänzen als ersetzen. Entscheidend für den Erhalt des Wohlstands ist somit, beide Hebel – Arbeitszeitund Produktivität – gemeinsam zu nutzen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training (2026)

    Hashim, Ali; Klaauw, Wilbert van der; Koşar, Gizem ;

    Zitatform

    Hashim, Ali, Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw (2026): Use of Gen AI in the Workplace and the Value of Access to Training. (Liberty Street Economics / Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2026-04-14), New York, NY: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 5 S. DOI:10.59576/lse.20260414

    Abstract

    "The rapid spread of generative AI (AI) tools is reshaping the workplace at a remarkable rate. Yet relatively little is known about whether workers have access to these tools, how the tools affect workers’ daily productivity, and how much workers value the training needed to use the tools effectively. In this post, we shed light on these issues by drawing on supplemental questions in the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), fielded to a representative sample of the U.S. population. We find that adoption of AI tools at work is heterogeneous, that a sizable share of workers see AI training as important, and that a significant share of employers are nonetheless not yet providing access to AI tools or training on how to use them." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Künstliche Intelligenz im Übergang Schule – Beruf: Chancen, Risiken und Qualitätskriterien (2026)

    Hense, Julia; Goertz, Lutz;

    Zitatform

    Hense, Julia & Lutz Goertz (2026): Künstliche Intelligenz im Übergang Schule – Beruf. Chancen, Risiken und Qualitätskriterien. (ueberaus.de), Bonn, o. Sz.

    Abstract

    "Künstliche Intelligenz verändert den Übergang von der Schule in Ausbildung und Beruf – aber wie nutzen Fachkräfte KI verantwortungsvoll? Julia Hense und Lutz Goertz erläutern, wie KI diese unterstützen kann und wo ihre Grenzen liegen. Von der Simulation von Vorstellungsgesprächen über Chatbots zur Berufsorientierung bis zur datengestützten Analyse von Potenzialen: Die praktischen Chancen sind vielfältig. Gleichzeitig braucht es kritische Reflexion und klare Qualitätskriterien, um Diskriminierung zu vermeiden und Vertrauen zu schaffen. Der Basisartikel bietet konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen für Fachkräfte und zeigt: KI ist kein Ersatz für menschliche Beziehungsarbeit, sondern ein hilfreiches Werkzeug – wenn es richtig eingesetzt wird." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Occupational gender segregation: what can we learn from computer use trends? (2026)

    Herzberg-Druker, Efrat ;

    Zitatform

    Herzberg-Druker, Efrat (2026): Occupational gender segregation: what can we learn from computer use trends? In: Social forces, Jg. 105, H. 1, S. 299-320. DOI:10.1093/sf/soaf180

    Abstract

    "This study posits to an intricate interrelation between changes in occupational gender segregation (OGS) and the rise in computer use in the workplace in the United States. I posit that two contrasting mechanisms underpin this relation. Firstly, computerization has contributed to a more balanced gender distribution in certain professions, previously dominated by men, due to a decrease in physical tasks in occupations, thereby reducing OGS. Conversely, in other occupations, heightened computer use has increased Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) knowledge requirements, thus restricting women’s integration and reproducing OGS.My empirical analysis, utilizing fixed-effects regression models, lagged models, ordinary least squares (OLS) models, and mediation analysis on a comprehensive dataset of the United States Census, American Community Survey, and Occupational Information Network data, confirms a significant association between computer use and OGS. The physical attributes of occupations and their required STEM knowledge components emerge as critical factors. These contradictory mechanisms—one involving reduced physical demands and the other increased required STEM knowledge—ultimately maintain a stable OGS level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Automatisierung und Weiterbildung: Weiterbildungslücke in gefährdeten Berufen: Zur Diskussion gestellt (2026)

    Heß, Pascal ; Leber, Ute ; Janssen, Simon ;

    Zitatform

    Heß, Pascal, Simon Janssen & Ute Leber (2026): Automatisierung und Weiterbildung: Weiterbildungslücke in gefährdeten Berufen. Zur Diskussion gestellt. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 79, H. 03, S. 18-21., 2026-03-19.

    Abstract

    "Technologischer Wandel erhöht den Bedarf an Weiterbildung und lebenslangem Lernen. Neue empirische Evidenz für Deutschland zeigt jedoch, dass Beschäftigte in Berufen mit hoher Automatisierungsgefährdung seltener an Weiterbildung teilnehmen als Beschäftigte in weniger gefährdeten Tätigkeiten. Die Weiterbildungslücke betrifft insbesondere mittelqualifizierte und männliche Beschäftigte sowie zukunftsrelevante Kompetenzen wie IT- und soziale Fähigkeiten. Der Befund lässt sich wesentlich durch geringere betriebliche Weiterbildungsinvestitionen erklären. Die Ergebnisse verdeutlichen einen Zielkonflikt zwischen betrieblicher Investitionslogik und gesamtwirtschaftlichem Qualifizierungsbedarf." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Heß, Pascal ; Leber, Ute ; Janssen, Simon ;
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    "… dass wir gut 20 Jahre zu spät dran sind": Die digitale Transformation der sozialen Infrastruktur als Indikator für territorialen Anschluss in "left-behind places" (2026)

    Heßmer, Annika; Schäfer, Susann ;

    Zitatform

    Heßmer, Annika & Susann Schäfer (2026): "… dass wir gut 20 Jahre zu spät dran sind": Die digitale Transformation der sozialen Infrastruktur als Indikator für territorialen Anschluss in "left-behind places". In: Raumforschung und Raumordnung, S. 1-14. DOI:10.14512/rur.3981

    Abstract

    "Ausgehend von Debatten zu left-behind places, digital divide, sozialer Infrastruktur und smart rurality beschäftigt sich dieser Beitrag mit der Frage, inwiefern die Digitalisierung wahrgenommene regionale Ungleichheiten verringert oder reproduziert und so als Facette der Identifikation von leftbehind places fungieren kann. Am Beispiel von öffentlichen Schulen in Thüringen untersuchen die Autorinnen, ob und inwiefern staatlich gesteuerte Digitalisierungsinitiativen und die Bewertung des allgemeinen Digitalisierungsniveaus zu einer Konvergenz wahrgenommener Unterschiede führen. Die empirische Grundlage bilden 17 leitfadengestützte Interviews mit Leitungen staatlicher Schulen in Thüringen, ergänzt durch Daten einer landesweiten quantitativen Befragung aller öffentlichen Schulen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zeitlich verzögerte, fragmentierte Digitalisierungspfade, in denen sich Schulen, vor allem in ländlich charakterisierten Räumen, als systematisch nachgeordnet erleben. Gefühle des „Zu-spät-Dranseins“ übersetzen sich dabei in Wahrnehmungen politischer Nachrangigkeit. Diese Emotionalität entsteht durch schleppende Ausstattungsprozesse, fragile Supportstrukturen und selektive Prioritätensetzungen. Wir argumentieren, dass Digitalisierung in öffentlichen Schulen ein bedeutsamer Indikator territorialer Anerkennung ist und als institutionelle Manifestation von Emotionen gelesen werden kann, die das Left-behind-Narrativ empirisch fassbar machen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Not a Typical Firm: Capital–Labor Substitution and Firms' Labor Shares (2026)

    Hubmer, Joachim; Restrepo, Pascual;

    Zitatform

    Hubmer, Joachim & Pascual Restrepo (2026): Not a Typical Firm: Capital–Labor Substitution and Firms' Labor Shares. In: American Economic Journal. Macroeconomics, Jg. 18, H. 2, S. 34-71. DOI:10.1257/mac.20230325

    Abstract

    "The US labor share has declined, especially in manufacturing and retail. Yet the labor share of a typical firm in these sectors has risen. We introduce a model where firms incur fixed costs to automate tasks. A decline in the price of capital goods used for automation reproduces the observed patterns: large firms automate tasks, reducing the aggregate labor share, while the median firm continues to operate a labor-intensive technology. When calibrating the automation fixed costs to match the observed adoption heterogeneity, the model generates the aggregate and firm-level facts quantitatively in response to lower capital prices, especially in manufacturing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI (2026)

    Humlum, Anders; Vestergaard, Emilie ;

    Zitatform

    Humlum, Anders & Emilie Vestergaard (2026): Still Waters, Rapid Currents: Early Labor Market Transformation under Generative AI. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2026,78), Berlin, 81 S.

    Abstract

    "We study the early labor market impacts of AI chatbots by linking large-scale adoption surveys to administrative labor market records in Denmark. We document rapid currents: most employers in exposed occupations have adopted chatbot initiatives, workers report productivity benefits, and new AI-related tasks are widespread. Yet these currents have not broken the surface: using difference-in-differences, we estimate precise null effects on earnings and recorded hours at both the worker and workplace levels, ruling out effects larger than 2% two years after the launch of ChatGPT. What moves is the structure of work: employers absorb AI through task reorganization-including new tasks in content generation, AI oversight, and AI integration-and adopters transition into higher-paying occupations where AI chatbots are more relevant, though still too few to move average earnings. Technological change reshapes work well before it surfaces in earnings or hours." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    The impact of AI on global knowledge work (2026)

    Ide, Enrique; Talamas, Eduard;

    Zitatform

    Ide, Enrique & Eduard Talamas (2026): The impact of AI on global knowledge work. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 157. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876

    Abstract

    "We analyze how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes global knowledge work in a two-region world where firms organize production hierarchically to use knowledge efficiently: the most knowledgeable individuals specialize in problem-solving, while others perform routine work. Before AI, the Advanced Economy specializes in problem-solving services, whereas the Emerging Economy focuses on routine work. AI converts compute — which is located in the Advanced Economy — into autonomous “AI agents” that perfectly substitute for humans with a given level of knowledge. Basic AI reduces the Advanced Economy ’s net exports of problem-solving services, potentially reversing pre-AI trade patterns. In contrast, sophisticated AI expands these exports, reinforcing existing trade patterns. Finally, we show that a global ban on AI autonomy redistributes AI’s gains toward lower-skilled workers, while a regional ban — such as prohibiting autonomy only in the Emerging Economy — offers little benefit to lower-skilled workers and harms the most knowledgeable individuals in that region." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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    Online platforms' organizational resources and gig workers' self-leadership (2026)

    Ihl, Andreas; Mayer, Anne-Sophie;

    Zitatform

    Ihl, Andreas & Anne-Sophie Mayer (2026): Online platforms' organizational resources and gig workers' self-leadership. In: Journal of vocational behavior, Jg. 166. DOI:10.1016/j.jvb.2026.104214

    Abstract

    "An increasing number of gig workers turn to online gig work platforms to pursue potentially boundaryless and protean careers outside traditional organizational settings. Proactive career self-management and related self-leadership are essential to succeed in such careers. However, while traditional organizations facilitate self-leadership by providing traditional organizational resources, such as supportive human resource practices, gig work lacks these important resources. As a result, cultivating self-leadership among gig workers remains a considerable challenge. This study addresses this challenge by investigating how online platforms that centrally shape work environments may provide a resource-related context that facilitates gig workers' self-leadership strategies. Using a contextual and systemic approach to career self-management and inspired by the conservation of resources theory, we draw on insights from a 14-month field study of an online gig work platform, involving data collected from multiple sources. The findings show how platforms offer various types of platform-embedded resources and how workers utilize these resources to engage in behavior- and cognitive-focused self-leadership strategies. This study thereby contributes to the literature on careers in gig work by theorizing the role of online platforms in shaping gig workers' careers from a proactive and agentic perspective." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Tabellenanhang zur Studie "Digital Gender Gap. Schwerpunkt 2026: Künstliche Intelligenz" (2026)

    Jahn, Sandy; Matthes, Britta ; Burkert, Carola ; Diener, Katharina;

    Zitatform

    Jahn, Sandy, Carola Burkert, Katharina Diener & Britta Matthes (2026): Tabellenanhang zur Studie "Digital Gender Gap. Schwerpunkt 2026: Künstliche Intelligenz". Berlin, 10 S.

    Abstract

    "Allgemeine Hinweise zu den Daten und Methoden sowie Interpretationshilfen. - Übersicht über die in den Analysen verwendeten Variablen und deren Operationalisierung. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells ohne Interaktionen, wenn allein die soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells mit Interaktionen, wenn allein die soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells ohne Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale auch Merkmale des Jobs und Betriebs berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells mit Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemographischen Merkmale auch Merkmale des Jobs und Betriebs berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells ohne Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale auch Merkmale zu Einstellungen und Kompetenzen berücksichtigt werden. - Ergebnisse des Multinomialen Logit-Modells mit Interaktionen, wenn neben den soziodemopgraphischen Merkmale auch Merkmale zu Einstellungen und Kompetenzen berücksichtigt werden." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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    Digital Gender Gap: Schwerpunkt 2026 Künstliche Intelligenz (2026)

    Jahn, Sandy; Matthes, Britta ; Burkert, Carola ; Diener, Katharina;

    Zitatform

    Jahn, Sandy, Carola Burkert, Katharina Diener & Britta Matthes (2026): Digital Gender Gap. Schwerpunkt 2026 Künstliche Intelligenz. Berlin, 20 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.D21.2026

    Abstract

    "Künstliche Intelligenz wird immer mehr zur Schlüsselressource. Ihre Nutzung entscheidet zunehmend über Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, Beschäftigungschancen und gesellschaftliche Teilhabe – vergleichbar mit Alphabetisierung oder Internetzugang in früheren Transformationsphasen. Die Studie des IAB und der Initiative D 21 zeigt: Es besteht ein signifikanter Gender AI Gap. Frauen nutzen KI-Anwendungen seltener und weniger intensiv als Männer (rund 16 Prozentpunkte Unterschied in der Ausgangsbetrachtung). Wenn Unterschiede in Alter, Bildung, Einkommen, beruflichem Kontext sowie Kompetenzen und Einstellungen statistisch berücksichtigt werden, verringert sich die Lücke zwar – bleibt aber auch dann bestehen (rund 8 Prozentpunkte)." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Der Gender AI Gap: "KI wird zur Schlüsselressource - aber Männer und Frauen nutzen sie nicht gleich" (2026)

    Keitel, Christiane; Diener, Katharina; Matthes, Britta ; Jahn, Sandy; Burkert, Carola ;

    Zitatform

    Keitel, Christiane; Katharina Diener, Britta Matthes, Sandy Jahn & Carola Burkert (interviewte Person) (2026): Der Gender AI Gap: "KI wird zur Schlüsselressource - aber Männer und Frauen nutzen sie nicht gleich". In: IAB-Forum H. 23.04.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260423.01

    Abstract

    "Mit der rasanten Verbreitung von Künstlicher Intelligenz in der Arbeitswelt entsteht eine neue Lücke zwischen den Geschlechtern: der Gender AI Gap. Dies zeigt eine aktuelle Studie des IAB, die in Zusammenarbeit mit der Initiative D21 entstanden ist, Deutschlands größtem gemeinnützigen Netzwerk für die digitale Gesellschaft. Der Studie zufolge nutzen Frauen KI deutlich seltener und weniger intensiv nutzen als Männer – selbst bei vergleichbaren Voraussetzungen. Warum das so ist, welche Rolle Netzwerke und Wahrnehmungen spielen, und an welchen Stellschrauben Politik und Betriebe jetzt ansetzen müssen, erläutern die Autorinnen der Studie im Interview." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    „Es geht nicht darum, was KI uns wegnehmen könnte, sondern welche Chancen entstehen“ (2026)

    Keitel, Christiane; Matthes, Britta ; Grienberger, Katharina ;

    Zitatform

    Keitel, Christiane; Britta Matthes & Katharina Grienberger (interviewte Person) (2026): „Es geht nicht darum, was KI uns wegnehmen könnte, sondern welche Chancen entstehen“. In: IAB-Forum H. 11.05.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20260511.01

    Abstract

    "Der IAB-Job-Futuromat zeigt, welche beruflichen Tätigkeiten durch digitale Technologien und KI potenziell automatisierbar sind – und welche nicht. Im Interview erklären die Forscherinnen Britta Matthes und Katharina Grienberger, wie das Tool funktioniert, welche Berufe besonders betroffen sind und warum es bei der Berufswahl nicht um die Angst vor der Automatisierbarkeit, sondern vielmehr um Chancen gehen sollte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    When Algorithms Favor the Underrepresented - Race and Gender Biases in LLM Résumé Evaluations (2026)

    Kim, Soonyoung Chloe ; Li, Jingyi; Hernandez, Ivan;

    Zitatform

    Kim, Soonyoung Chloe, Ivan Hernandez & Jingyi Li (2026): When Algorithms Favor the Underrepresented - Race and Gender Biases in LLM Résumé Evaluations. In: Journal of Personnel Psychology, Jg. 25, H. 3, S. 148-157. DOI:10.1027/1866-5888/a000388

    Abstract

    "The literature on name-based biases in hiring suggests pervasive discrimination, as White-sounding names receive more callbacks than Black-sounding ones. This study assesses whether AI systems, through open Large Language Models (LLMs), exhibit similar biases. The LLMs evaluated résumés on attributes such as competence and warmth, aggregating these dimensions into composite scores for each résumé. The different names attached to a résumé led to changes in evaluation, despite identical content. Statistically significant race and gender biases were found in most models for warmth and competence ratings. Unlike typical settings, Black applicants and female names were rated slightly higher through the LLMs’ evaluations. These findings highlight the importance of examining AI tools used in hiring as they may unintentionally reflect societal biases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Hogrefe Verlag) ((en))

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Sachsen-Anhalt im Strukturwandel: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale (2026)

    Kropp, Per; Fritzsche, Birgit; Theuer, Stefan;

    Zitatform

    Kropp, Per, Stefan Theuer & Birgit Fritzsche (2026): Sachsen-Anhalt im Strukturwandel: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 03/2026), Nürnberg, 40 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RESAT.2603

    Abstract

    "Die Arbeitswelt verändert sich rasant. Technische Entwicklungen bei Software, Computer oder computergesteuerten Maschinen schaffen immer neue Anwendungsmöglichkeiten. Bislang waren insbesondere Routinetätigkeiten z. B. bei Helfertätigkeiten automatisierbar. Nun sind durch produktiv nutzbare KI-Technologie auch zunehmend Nicht-Routine-Tätigkeiten von Spezialisten und Experten betroffen. Im Vergleich zu Deutschland hat Sachsen-Anhalt mehr Berufe mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial. Das durchschnittliche Substituierbarkeitspotenzial über alle Berufe stieg bis 2016 rasant an, seitdem jedoch in geringerem Ausmaß. Sicherheitsberufe hatten 2022 mit rund 21 Prozentpunkten einen sehr hohen Anstieg, so wie zuletzt die IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufe mit rund 20 Prozentpunkten. Für diese Veränderungen konnten drei Ursachen identifiziert werden: die Veränderung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale einzelner Tätigkeiten in den Berufen, innerberufliche Veränderungen in der Bedeutung von (Kern-)Tätigkeiten und der berufliche Strukturwandel. Für Männer und Frauen sind die Substituierbarkeitspotenziale seit 2013 ähnlich gestiegen, bei Männern allerdings ausgehend von einem höheren Niveau. Künstliche Intelligenz als dominanter Aspekt der jüngsten Entwicklung macht aber eher Tätigkeiten ersetzbar, die mehrheitlich von Frauen erledigt werden. Zwischen den verschiedenen Alterskohorten gibt es insgesamt kaum Unterschiede. Lediglich in zwei Berufssegmenten haben jüngere Beschäftigte ein höheres Substitutionspotenzial – bei Verkehrs- und Logistikberufen sowie bei den IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufen. Auch wenn sich einige Berufe durch Digitalisierung stark verändern führt das kaum zu Beschäftigungsverlusten. Für solche Berufe und für Regionen, in denen sie vermehrt vorkommen, können jedoch höhere Weiterbildungsbedarfe vermutet werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Strukturwandel in Mitteldeutschland (2026)

    Kropp, Per; Fritzsche, Birgit; Theuer, Stefan;

    Zitatform

    Kropp, Per, Birgit Fritzsche & Stefan Theuer (2026): Strukturwandel in Mitteldeutschland. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 01/2026), Nürnberg, 44 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RESAT.2601

    Abstract

    "Technologischer Wandel, darunter die Digitalisierung vieler Wirtschaftsbereiche, die Verschiebung von Märkten und nicht zuletzt die demografische Entwicklung prägten den beruflichen Strukturwandel in Mitteldeutschland in der letzten Dekade. Diese Entwicklung abzubilden ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie. Dabei liegt der Fokus auf Mitteldeutschland, seine Kreise und Arbeitsmarktregionen; zum Vergleich wurden allerdings häufig die Werte aller 16 Bundesländer herangezogen. Hinzu kommt der Vergleich für die Braunkohlereviere, zu denen das Mitteldeutsche Revier gehört. Für die Analysen wurden Indikatoren entwickelt, welche die Veränderung der Beschäftigungsstruktur in Berufssegmenten und ihre Dynamik abbilden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Strukturwandel in Thüringen: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale (2026)

    Kropp, Per; Theuer, Stefan; Fritzsche, Birgit;

    Zitatform

    Kropp, Per, Stefan Theuer & Birgit Fritzsche (2026): Strukturwandel in Thüringen: Digitalisierung. Mit einer Neuschätzung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale. (IAB-Regional. Berichte und Analysen aus dem Regionalen Forschungsnetz. IAB Sachsen-Anhalt-Thüringen 02/2026), Nürnberg, 42 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.RESAT.2602

    Abstract

    "Die Arbeitswelt verändert sich in rasant. Technische Entwicklungen bei Software, Computer oder computergesteuerten Maschinen schaffen immer neue Anwendungsmöglichkeiten. Bislang waren insbesondere Routinetätigkeiten z. B. bei Helfertätigkeiten automatisierbar. Nun sind durch produktiv nutzbare KI-Technologie auch zunehmend nicht-routine-Tätigkeiten von Spezialisten und Experten betroffen. Im Vergleich zu Deutschland hatte Thüringen häufiger Berufe mit einem hohen Substituierbarkeitspotenzial. Das durchschnittliche Substituierbarkeitspotenzial über alle Berufe stieg bis 2016 rasant an, seitdem jedoch im geringeren Ausmaß. Sicherheitsberufe hatten 2019 mit rund 21 Prozentpunkten einen sehr hohen Anstieg, so wie zuletzt die IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufe mit rund 20 Prozentpunkten. Für diese Veränderungen konnten drei Faktoren identifiziert werden: die Veränderung der Substituierbarkeitspotenziale einzelner Berufe, innerberufliche Veränderungen wie bei den Kerntätigkeiten und der berufliche Strukturwandel. Für Männer und Frauen sind die Substituierbarkeitspotenziale seit 2013 ähnlich gestiegen, bei Männern allerdings von einem höheren Anfangsniveau. KI ersetzt dabei eher Tätigkeiten, die mehrheitlich von Frauen erledigt werden. Zwischen den verschiedenen Alterskohorten gibt es insgesamt kaum Unterschiede. Lediglich in zwei Berufssegmenten haben jüngere Beschäftigte ein höheres Substitutionspotenzial – bei Verkehrs- und Logistikberufen sowie bei den IT- und naturwissenschaftlichen Dienstleistungsberufen. Auch wenn sich einige Berufe durch Digitalisierung stark verändern führt das kaum zu Beschäftigungsverlusten. Für solche Berufe und für Regionen, in denen sie vermehrt vorkommen, können jedoch höhere Weiterbildungsbedarfe vermutet werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    What do software developers think about the automation of their work and its limits? Findings from a large-scale international survey (2026)

    Krzywdzinski, Martin ;

    Zitatform

    Krzywdzinski, Martin (2026): What do software developers think about the automation of their work and its limits? Findings from a large-scale international survey. (WZB discussion paper SP III 2026-301), Berlin, 43 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper investigates how software developers perceive the current and future automation of their work in the context of rapidly advancing generative and agentic AI. While existing research has primarily focused on productivity effects of specific AI coding tools in experimental settings, less is known about the broader organization of software-development work, the limits of automation, and developers' own expectations regarding labor-market outcomes. The paper addresses four research questions: the current level of automation across software-development tasks and occupations; expectations regarding future automation and its drivers; structural limits to automation; and perceived implications for job security, employability, and income. The analysis draws on an original survey of 1,731 software developers from eleven countries and six professional subgroups. The findings show that software development is currently characterized by moderate automation across all task domains, with humans still central to planning, coordination, and problem-solving. Respondents expect substantial increases in automation over the next five years, driven primarily by generative and agentic AI. However, the study also identifies important limits to automation: as automation increases, remaining tasks become less standardized, while problem-solving and collaboration demands persist. Finally, most developers remain cautiously optimistic about their labor-market prospects, although workers already operating in highly automated environments express significantly greater concerns about future job security." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Gestaltungsprinzipien individueller Beruflichkeit am Beispiel von Crowdworker:innen: Theoretische Ansätze und empirische Ergebnisse zum Zusammenhang von Arbeit, Beruf und Subjektivierung (2026)

    Külpmann, Inga;

    Zitatform

    Külpmann, Inga (2026): Gestaltungsprinzipien individueller Beruflichkeit am Beispiel von Crowdworker:innen. Theoretische Ansätze und empirische Ergebnisse zum Zusammenhang von Arbeit, Beruf und Subjektivierung. (Berufsbildung, Arbeit und Innovation. Dissertationen, Habilitationen 92), Bielefeld: wbv, 352 S. DOI:10.3278/9783763979080

    Abstract

    "Die Studie untersucht, wie Crowdworker:innen in Plattformarbeit individuelle Beruflichkeit entwickeln und wie Arbeitserfahrungen Subjektivierung prägen. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Frage, welche Gestaltungsprinzipien Lern- und Entwicklungspotenziale in Crowdwork unterstützen. Aus berufs- und wirtschaftspädagogischer sowie arbeitssoziologischer Perspektive verbindet die Publikation theoretische Ansätze zu Arbeit, Beruf und Subjektivierung mit empirischen Ergebnissen aus Untersuchungen von Crowdwork-Plattformen in Deutschland. Die Ergebnisse werden im Kontext des Forschungsprojekts CKoBeLeP (2021-2024) eingeordnet und auf Implikationen für lernförderliche Plattformgestaltung bezogen. Geeignet für Studierende und Forschende der Berufs- und Wirtschaftspädagogik, Arbeitssoziologie und Digitalisierungsforschung sowie für Akteur:innen in Arbeitsgestaltung, Weiterbildung und Plattformregulierung." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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    The broken ladder: AI, remote work, and early-career hiring (2026)

    Lambert, Peter John; Schindler, Yannick;

    Zitatform

    Lambert, Peter John & Yannick Schindler (2026): The broken ladder: AI, remote work, and early-career hiring. (CEP discussion paper / Centre for Economic Performance 2193), London, 81 S.

    Abstract

    "Is generative AI replacing junior workers? A growing literature answers yes, citing large declines in early-career hiring concentrated in GenAI-exposed occupations. We argue that this verdict is premature because GenAI exposure is strongly correlated with another post pandemic shock, working from home (WFH). Using two data sources spanning 243million new hires and 407 million online job postings, collected across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia during 2017-2025, we estimate difference-in-difference designs at the occupation, region, and firm level. When estimated separately, a two-standard-deviation increase in GenAI and WFH exposure each predicts, by 2025, a fall of around 5pp in the junior-share of new hires and around 3pp in the share of job ads requiring limited experience. Estimated jointly, the WFH effect remains, while the GenAI coefficient attenuates sharply and is often statistically indistinguishable from zero. Alternative exposure measures, residualization designs, flexible non-parametric co-treatment controls, and replacing exposure-measures with actual WFH adoption as the treatment all support our finding that WFH is a robust predictor of the decline in early-career hiring." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Automation and the risk of labor market exclusion across Europe (2026)

    Lamperti, Fabio; Castellani, Davide ;

    Zitatform

    Lamperti, Fabio & Davide Castellani (2026): Automation and the risk of labor market exclusion across Europe. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Jg. 77, S. 62-76. DOI:10.1016/j.strueco.2025.12.014

    Abstract

    "Labor market exclusion represents a major concern in several European economies, particularly affecting highly exposed demographic groups. This paper examines the potential effect of automation technologies on the risk of being locked into protracted unemployment or inactivity, using Labour Force Survey data for the European Union 27 countries and the United Kingdom, between 2009 and 2019. Our study employs repeated cross-sections of individual-level data to compute probabilities of exclusion outcomes due to automation adoption, controlling for several individual, macroeconomic, and region-specific characteristics, and for potential selection mechanisms. Findings highlight that, on average, the adoption of new automation technologies is associated with a higher probability of being inactive. This is consistent with the view that automation may exacerbate job insecurity, psychological discouragement, and detachment from job-seeking. This relationship is heterogeneous across demographic groups, with younger individuals being relatively more affected." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))

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    Can artificial intelligence replace human labour? Global evidence from 65 countries (2026)

    Le, Quoc Hoi ; Huynh, Cong Minh ;

    Zitatform

    Le, Quoc Hoi & Cong Minh Huynh (2026): Can artificial intelligence replace human labour? Global evidence from 65 countries. In: Applied Economics, S. 1-17. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2026.2688439

    Abstract

    "Despite growing concerns about technological unemployment, existing evidence remains fragmented, country-specific, and largely silent on whether productivity growth driven by artificial intelligence (AI) can decouple from human labour globally. This paper provides new global evidence on AI-labour substitution using an unbalanced panel of 65 countries over 2013–2023. Building on a task-based theoretical framework, we conceptualize AI as a potentially labour-replacing technology that reallocates economic tasks from humans to machines. We test this framework empirically using AI development, combined with cross-country data on labour force participation, productivity, human capital, and institutional characteristics. The results reveal three main findings. First, AI development is associated with a statistically significant decrease in labour force participation, indicating the presence of labour displacement effects. Second, AI simultaneously raises productivity, pointing to productivity-labour decoupling, whereby output growth becomes less dependent on human labour. Third, human capital and governance quality play crucial moderating roles in weakening labour-displacing effects of AI. Remarkably, dynamic panel estimates suggest that AI induces short-run labour displacement, while long-run outcomes depend on countries’ capacity to adapt through education and institutional quality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Automation, Trade Unions and Atypical Employment (2026)

    Lewandowski, Piotr ; Szymczak, Wojciech ;

    Zitatform

    Lewandowski, Piotr & Wojciech Szymczak (2026): Automation, Trade Unions and Atypical Employment. In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 65, H. 3, S. 378-396. DOI:10.1111/irel.70017

    Abstract

    "We study the effect of automation technologies—industrial robots, software and databases—on the incidence of involuntary atypical employment in 13 EU countries between 2006 and 2018. Robots do not affect the total employment rate but significantly increase the involuntary atypical employment share, mainly through fixed-term work. Software and databases increase total employment and are neutral for atypical employment. Higher trade union density mitigates the robots' impact on atypical employment, while employment protection legislation plays no role. Using historical decompositions, we attribute 1–2 percentage points of a 15% average atypical employment share in our sample to automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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    Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Automation More Attractive than Full Automation? (2026)

    Li, Wensu; Lyu, Harry; Goehring, Brian C.; Aboutorabi, Atin; Qian, Kaizhi; Thompson, Neil; Fleming, Martin;

    Zitatform

    Li, Wensu, Atin Aboutorabi, Harry Lyu, Kaizhi Qian, Martin Fleming, Brian C. Goehring & Neil Thompson (2026): Economics of Human and AI Collaboration: When is Partial Automation More Attractive than Full Automation? (arXiv papers 2603.29121), 57 S.

    Abstract

    "This paper develops a unified framework for evaluating the optimal degree of task automation. Moving beyond binary automate-or-not assessments, we model automation intensity as a continuous choice in which firms minimize costs by selecting an AI accuracy level, from no automation through partial human-AI collaboration to full automation. On the supply side, we estimate an AI production function via scaling-law experiments linking performance to data, compute, and model size. Because AI systems exhibit predictable but diminishing returns to these inputs, the cost of higher accuracy is convex: good performance may be inexpensive, but near-perfect accuracy is disproportionately costly. Full automation is therefore often not cost-minimizing; partial automation, where firms retain human workers for residual tasks, frequently emerges as the equilibrium. On the demand side, we introduce an entropy-based measure of task complexity that maps model accuracy into a labor substitution ratio, quantifying human labor displacement at each accuracy level. We calibrate the framework with O*NET task data, a survey of 3,778 domain experts, and GPT-4o-derived task decompositions, implementing it in computer vision. Task complexity shapes substitution: low-complexity tasks see high substitution, while high-complexity tasks favor limited partial automation. Scale of deployment is a key determinant: AI-as-a-Service and AI agents spread fixed costs across users, sharply expanding economically viable tasks. At the firm level, cost-effective automation captures approximately 11% of computer-vision-exposed labor compensation; under economy-wide deployment, this share rises sharply. Since other AI systems exhibit similar scaling-law economics, our mechanisms extend beyond computer vision, reinforcing that partial automation is often the economically rational long-run outcome, not merely a transitional phase." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Skill-biased technological change in the age of AI: a theoretical analysis of automation and inequality (2026)

    Li, Te; Nichols, Hadrian;

    Zitatform

    Li, Te & Hadrian Nichols (2026): Skill-biased technological change in the age of AI: a theoretical analysis of automation and inequality. In: Economics of Innovation and New Technology, S. 1-29. DOI:10.1080/10438599.2026.2649376

    Abstract

    "This paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze how artificial intelligence (AI)–driven automation reshapes productivity, labor markets, and income distribution. The model features heterogeneous workers, endogenous automation decisions, and irreversible skill investment choices, allowing a unified examination of displacement, complementarity, and skill-supply responses. Automation substitutes for labor in routine tasks, reducing demand and wages for low-skilled workers, while simultaneously enhancing productivity in complex tasks where AI complements high-skilled labor. As a result, aggregate output and total welfare increase, but income inequality widens and the skill premium rises. A key finding is that technological progress is not Pareto improving: due to heterogeneous and irreversible skill investment costs, workers below a critical ability threshold experience absolute welfare losses despite overall economic growth. This generates a ‘growth paradox’ in which productivity gains coexist with immiseration for vulnerable groups. The paper further evaluates three policy instruments – redistributive taxation, education subsidies, and technology policy – and derives conditions under which each improves social welfare. Education subsidies emerge as the most effective tool for mitigating inequality while preserving efficiency, whereas excessive automation may arise when private incentives diverge from social optima." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    AI adoption among German firms (2026)

    Licht, Thomas; Wohlrabe, Klaus ;

    Zitatform

    Licht, Thomas & Klaus Wohlrabe (2026): AI adoption among German firms. In: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, S. 1-5. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2026.2669986

    Abstract

    "This paper examines the adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) among German firms using firm-level data from the ifo Business Survey. Between 2023 and 2024, AI usage more than doubled from 13.3% to 27%, with substantial variation across sectors and firm sizes. Large firms in manufacturing and services lead adoption, while SMEs and construction companies lag behind. Using linear probability models with fixed effects for industry and firm size, we find that managerial characteristics – particularly risk tolerance and patience – significantly influence adoption decisions. Firms led by more risk-tolerant and patient managers are more likely to implement AI. Most firms expect notable productivity gains from AI – approximately 8% overfive years – though expectations vary by sector. Our findings providenew firm-level evidence by linking validated measures of managerial preferences to AI adoption decisions, highlighting both the economic potential and the structural barriers to broader diffusion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Good Jobs or Bad Jobs? Immigrant Workers in the Gig Economy (2026)

    Liu, Cathy Yang ; Renzy, Rory;

    Zitatform

    Liu, Cathy Yang & Rory Renzy (2026): Good Jobs or Bad Jobs? Immigrant Workers in the Gig Economy. In: International migration review, Jg. 60, H. 1, S. 114-138. DOI:10.1177/01979183241309585

    Abstract

    "New work arrangements enabled by online platforms, or gig work, saw substantive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Various estimates have suggested the wide participation of workers in the gig economy, with minority and immigrant workers well represented. The quality of work is a multi-dimensional concept that goes beyond earnings. One framework of good jobs and bad jobs centers on control over work schedule, content and duration, stability, safety, benefits and insurance, as well as career advancement opportunities. Using a newly released national survey focused on entrepreneurs and workers in the United States, we find that about 18.5 percent immigrant workers and 21.1 percent native-born workers participated in the gig economy as their primary or secondary job. In terms of job quality, immigrant gig workers work shorter hours and have significantly less fringe benefits than non-gig workers as well as U.S.-born gig workers, reflecting a double disadvantage. However, they tend to have higher entrepreneurial aspirations, suggesting the transient nature of gig arrangements and potential for career advancements. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and implication of immigrants’ engagement with the gig economy and offers policy and theoretical discussions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Do robots decrease humans’ wages? (2026)

    Logchies, Thomas; Reed, W. Robert ; Coupé, Tom ;

    Zitatform

    Logchies, Thomas, Tom Coupé & W. Robert Reed (2026): Do robots decrease humans’ wages? In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 33, H. 13, S. 2194-2198. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2025.2466748

    Abstract

    "While there are studies that show a positive or negative impact of robots on wages, a meta-analysis of 2,586 estimates from 52 studies in this paper finds that when one looks at the literature as a whole, there is no clear evidence of a sizable impact of robots on wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    The Enshittification of Work: Platform Decay and Labour Conditions in the Gig Economy (2026)

    Maffie, Michael David ; Hurtado, Hector;

    Zitatform

    Maffie, Michael David & Hector Hurtado (2026): The Enshittification of Work: Platform Decay and Labour Conditions in the Gig Economy. In: BJIR, Jg. 64, H. 1, S. 5-20. DOI:10.1111/bjir.70004

    Abstract

    "This study investigates the mechanisms by which gig platforms degrade labor conditions over time, building on the concept of platform decay, or ‘enshittification’, initially developed in the context of social media platforms. In this article, we draw on 30 interviews with long-term gig workers in the ride-hail and grocery delivery sectors, offering insights into how these companies shift from offering attractive working conditions to exploiting labor as these services develop market power via network effects. We identify three mechanisms through which gig companies claw back value from workers over time: burden shifting (transferring operational costs to workers), feature addition and alteration (increasing the demands on workers), and market manipulation (reducing worker bargaining power). We then explore how workers respond to platform decay, finding that workers adopt three responses: effort recalibration , multi-homing and navigating the changing conditions through what we term toxic resilience . This study contributes to the gig work literature by developing a framework to explain how working conditions in the gig economy improve or degrade over time. In doing so, this article provides a framework for organizing the growing constellation of labour research on gig workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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    The Sum of All (Workplace) Fears: How Managers Mediate the Fear of AI Job Displacement (2026)

    Makridis, Christos;

    Zitatform

    Makridis, Christos (2026): The Sum of All (Workplace) Fears: How Managers Mediate the Fear of AI Job Displacement. (CESifo working paper 12678), München, 55 S.

    Abstract

    "AI is transforming work, but workers' responses to these technologies depend not only on exposure to AI, but also on how organizations, especially managers, oversee the transition. Using longitudinal data from the Gallup Workforce Panel from 2023-2026, I examine whether managers and workplace practices shape employees' fears that AI will eliminate their jobs. Across survey waves, roughly 3-4 percent of workers say their job is very likely to be eliminated within five years because of new technology, automation, robots, or artificial intelligence, while about 14-19 percent say it is somewhat or very likely. Concern is substantially higher among frequent AI users. Stronger workplace practices are associated with lower displacement fear: a one-standard-deviation increase in workplace quality is associated with 13-24 percent lower odds of reporting greater displacement risk, and workers reporting the highest level of organizational wellbeing support are 6-6.8 percentage points less likely to say their job is somewhat or very likely to be displaced in cross-sectional specifications. Frequent AI use is positively associated with perceived displacement risk, with estimates ranging from about 3-12.9 percentage points across the main specifications and reaching 6 percentage points in the most saturated respect model. However, this association is weaker in higher-quality workplace environments: among workers reporting the highest level of organizational wellbeing support, the frequent-AI-use premium is reduced by up to 9.0 percentage points. In short, managers play a central role in shaping how workers interpret AI adoption." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Monitor Digitale Arbeitsgesellschaft – Kurzbericht der dritten Befragungswelle. Nach dem KI-Aufmerksamkeitsanstieg: Zwischen Stabilisierung, Skepsis und Regulierungsanforderungen (2026)

    Marcinkowski, Frank ; Flaßhoff, Florian Golo ; Lünich, Marco ; Keller, Birte ;

    Zitatform

    Marcinkowski, Frank, Birte Keller, Marco Lünich & Florian Golo Flaßhoff (2026): Monitor Digitale Arbeitsgesellschaft – Kurzbericht der dritten Befragungswelle. Nach dem KI-Aufmerksamkeitsanstieg: Zwischen Stabilisierung, Skepsis und Regulierungsanforderungen. (SocArXiv papers), 11 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/zcxje_v1

    Abstract

    "Der Kurzbericht präsentiert zentrale Ergebnisse der dritten von vier repräsentativen Befragungswellen der Studie Monitor Digitale Arbeitsgesellschaft, die im Rahmen des Forschungsprojekts Meinungsmonitor Künstliche Intelligenz 3.0 durchgeführt wurde. Grundlage sind die Angaben von 1.647 Befragten (928 Erwerbstätige, 719 Nichterwerbstätige) im Januar 2026. Die dritte Befragungswelle zeigt, dass das im Verlauf des Jahres 2025 gestiegene Interesse an KI zu Beginn des Jahres 2026 wieder leicht zurückgeht, während die subjektive Einschätzung des eigenen Wissens auf dem erreichten Niveau stabil bleibt. Gleichzeitig nehmen Vorbehalte gegenüber bestimmten gesellschaftlichen Einsatzfeldern zu, insbesondere in Bereichen mit Bezug zu staatlichen Sicherheitsaufgaben und politischen Entscheidungen. In der Arbeitswelt bleibt die Bewertung der Auswirkungen von KI auf den eigenen Beruf insgesamt stabil und leicht nutzenorientiert. Die berufliche Nutzung von KI stagniert zuletzt weitgehend. Viele Beschäftigte berichten weiterhin keine grundlegenden Veränderungen ihrer Tätigkeitsanforderungen und nur geringe persönliche Jobunsicherheit, während die Sorge, dass KI menschliche Arbeit allgemein ersetzen oder grundlegend verändern könnte, weiterhin deutlich stärker verbreitet ist als die persönliche Jobunsicherheit. Erstmals wird zudem ein besonderes Schlaglicht auf die Regulierungspräferenzen der Bevölkerung geworfen: Während staatliche Eingriffe bei arbeitsmarktbezogenen Folgen breite Unterstützung finden, werden Eingriffe in wirtschaftliche Freiheiten und steuerpolitische Maßnahmen deutlich ambivalenter bewertet. Insgesamt deutet sich eine stärkere Ausdifferenzierung und Festigung der Einstellungen gegenüber KI an." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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    Artificial Intelligence in Firms: A Synthesis of Micro-Level Evidence on Productivity, Work, and Skills (2026)

    Marie-Christine, Fregin; Danique, Eijkenboom; Pelin, Özgül -. Persyn; Mantej, Pardesi; Nicholas, Rounding;

    Zitatform

    Marie-Christine, Fregin, Eijkenboom Danique, Özgül -. Persyn Pelin, Pardesi Mantej & Rounding Nicholas (2026): Artificial Intelligence in Firms: A Synthesis of Micro-Level Evidence on Productivity, Work, and Skills. (ROA Policy Brief 2026,2), Maastricht, 13 S. DOI:10.26481/umarpb.2026002e

    Abstract

    "AI is reshaping work through shifts in tasks and skills rather than widespread job losses. This policy brief synthesises micro-level evidence on how AI affects productivity, work, and skills within organisations. It finds that generative AI is already embedded in everyday business practice, with productivity gains most visible among less experienced workers. Outcomes vary significantly depending on how AI is integrated into work processes, governance structures, and training. As autonomous AI systems become more prevalent, questions of responsibility, human oversight, and the distribution of risks and benefits grow more pressing. Successful implementation requires not just technological investment, but deliberate choices about leadership, work design, and employee involvement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Improving the effects of industrial robot adoption on employment, total factor productivity, and real wages in 52 world economies and OECD members (2026)

    Matsuki, Takashi ;

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    Matsuki, Takashi (2026): Improving the effects of industrial robot adoption on employment, total factor productivity, and real wages in 52 world economies and OECD members. In: Review of world economics, Jg. 162, H. 2, S. 417-448. DOI:10.1007/s10290-025-00626-z

    Abstract

    "This study investigates the effects of industrial robot adoption in the production process on unemployment rate, employment ratio in manufacturing, and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 52 countries, and real wage growth in 31 and 20 OECD member countries for 2007–2019. The operating stock of robots per employee significantly impacts these variables; robot adoption lowers the unemployment rate and raises TFP and real wage growth. However, it reduces the employment ratio in manufacturing. In addition, the slight but significant positive contribution of robot adoption is observed only in the 90-percentile (top 10-percentile) of the real wage distribution. Interestingly, workers in the bottom and top tails (10- and 90-percentiles) of the wage distribution asymmetrically benefit from robotization. The industry ratio of value-added improves the labor market by reducing the unemployment rate and raising the employment ratio in manufacturing, TFP growth, and real wage growth. The information and communication technology (ICT) development also positively contributes to the employment ratio in Asia’s manufacturing, TFP growth, and real wage growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe (2026)

    Misch, Florian; Park, Ben; Sher, Galen; Pizzinelli, Carlo;

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    Misch, Florian, Ben Park, Carlo Pizzinelli & Galen Sher (2026): Artificial Intelligence and Productivity in Europe. (CESifo working paper 12401), München, 37 S.

    Abstract

    "The discussion on Artificial Intelligence (AI) often centers around its impact on productivity, but macroeconomic evidence for Europe remains scarce. Using the Acemoglu (2024) approach we simulate the medium-term impact of AI adoption on total factor productivity for 31 European countries. We compile many scenarios by pooling evidence on which tasks will be automatable in the near term, using reduced-form regressions to predict AI adoption across Europe, and considering relevant regulation that restricts AI use heterogeneously across tasks, occupations and sectors. We find that the medium-term productivity gains for Europe as a whole are likely to be modest, at around 1 percent cumulatively over five years. While economically still moderate, these gains are still larger than estimates by Acemoglu (2024) for the US. They vary widely across scenarios and countries and are substantially larger in countries with higher incomes. Furthermore, we show that national and EU regulations around occupation-level requirements, AI safety, and data privacy combined could reduce Europe's productivity gains by over 30 percent if AI exposure were 50 percent lower in tasks, occupations and sectors affected by regulation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    Predicting and Preventing Turnover in Industry 4.0: Understanding the Impact of Artificial Intelligence Adoption on Employee Turnover (2026)

    Moon, Young-Kook; Mitropoulos, Tanya;

    Zitatform

    Moon, Young-Kook & Tanya Mitropoulos (2026): Predicting and Preventing Turnover in Industry 4.0: Understanding the Impact of Artificial Intelligence Adoption on Employee Turnover. In: Human resource development quarterly, S. 1-11. DOI:10.1002/hrdq.70018

    Abstract

    "With the increasing adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the workplace, employees' career paths have become more diverse and less predictable in the era of Industry 4.0. As technological transformations accelerate, employee turnover patterns are also changing, as reflected in the growing prevalence of occupational transitions and large-scale layoffs. These shifts highlight the need for more developmental approaches to understanding and managing retention. To address this issue, the present paper examines how AI implementation influences employee turnover by focusing on both the motives and psychological states underlying the withdrawal process. Drawing on proximal withdrawal states theory, the paper provides a deeper understanding of the dynamic nature of employee withdrawal patterns. This perspective elucidates the withdrawal process shaped by AI adoption, emphasizing that employees' responses to technological disruption are diverse in both psychological and behavioral terms rather than uniform. Furthermore, the paper proposes Human Resource Development (HRD)-based interventions aimed at preventing undesirable turnover through employee education and career development initiatives. By integrating these elements, we introduce an HRD-focused framework for addressing turnover issues associated with AI adoption in a more developmental and sustainable manner. Finally, the paper outlines future research directions for empirically testing the proposed theoretical mechanisms and intervention strategies within the rapidly evolving technological landscape of work." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    The remote reality: unpacking the impact of an exogenous shock on online labor markets (2026)

    Mourelatos, Evangelos ; Simonen, Jaakko ; Hosio, Simo;

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    Mourelatos, Evangelos, Jaakko Simonen & Simo Hosio (2026): The remote reality: unpacking the impact of an exogenous shock on online labor markets. In: Journal of business economics, S. 1-41. DOI:10.1007/s11573-026-01270-1

    Abstract

    "Following the outbreak of COVID-19 and the widespread shift to remote work, interest has grown in how these changes have affected online labor markets. We study individuals who were active in both the conventional labor market and an online labor market prior to this shock, and compare workers who were shifted from on-site to remote work in their main job with those who remained on-site. To provide insights into how changes in working conditions affect productivity in online labor markets, we utilized a unique dataset obtained from a prominent online labor marketplace. Our dataset contains several measures of worker productivity, which we analyze in conjunction with survey data collected from online workers regarding their experiences with conventional market changes. By combining these two sources of data, we are able to investigate the ways in which the pandemic-induced shift toward remote work has affected the productivity and behavior of online workers. We find that, first, the shift toward remote work during the pandemic has led to changes in the patterns of productivity in online labor markets. The transition toward remote work from home (WFH) decreased online productivity by 18%. Second, our findings suggest that the decrease in work quality among workers transitioning to WFH was primarily due to a “sloppy” work approach. Specifically, while the quantity of online work output may increase for such workers, their overall work quality tended to decline compared to those who continued to work in traditional firm environments during the COVID-19 pandemic. Third, heterogeneity analysis reveals that workers with higher levels of neuroticism tended to exhibit better adaptability to the WFH setup by having higher online productivity. Our analysis reveals several important findings with implications for both workers and policy-makers in the gig economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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    KI in Betrieben: Mehr Ausbildung – aber Weiterbildung zunehmend für anspruchsvollere Tätigkeiten (2026)

    Muehlemann, Samuel ;

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    Muehlemann, Samuel (2026): KI in Betrieben. Mehr Ausbildung – aber Weiterbildung zunehmend für anspruchsvollere Tätigkeiten. In: Ifo-Schnelldienst, Jg. 79, H. 03, S. 09-13.

    Abstract

    "Auf Basis des BIBB-Betriebspanels werden die Folgen der Einführung von Künstlicher Intelligenz für die betriebliche Aus- und Weiterbildung in Deutschland analysiert. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass KI-einführende Ausbildungsbetriebe im Durchschnitt rund 14% mehr neue Auszubildende einstellen. Das spricht für verstärkte Investitionen in den internen Kompetenzaufbau im Zuge des technologischen Wandels. Zugleich verschiebt sich die betriebliche Weiterbildung zugunsten hochqualifizierter Tätigkeiten, während Beschäftigte in Fachkraft- und einfachen Tätigkeiten seltener teilnehmen. Daraus ergibt sich das Risiko einer kumulativen Benachteiligung Geringqualifizierter. Es werden drei wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsfelder abgeleitet: die bessere Integration Jugendlicher mit geringen schulischen Qualifikationen in die duale Ausbildung, eine zielgerichtete Weiterbildungsförderung für Geringqualifizierte sowie schnellere Aktualisierungszyklen für Ausbildungsordnungen und Rahmenlehrpläne." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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  • Literaturhinweis

    Machine learning for labor market matching (2026)

    Mühlbauer, Sabrina ; Weber, Enzo ;

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    Mühlbauer, Sabrina & Enzo Weber (2026): Machine learning for labor market matching. In: Machine learning with applications, Jg. 23, 2026-02-03. DOI:10.1016/j.mlwa.2026.100861

    Abstract

    "This paper develops a large-scale machine learning framework to improve labor market matching using rich administrative data. Matching is defined as a job seeker entering employment in a specific occupational field. We exploit comprehensive employment biographies from Germany, covering individual characteristics and job-related information, to estimate employment probabilities across occupations and generate personalized job recommendations. The contribution lies in demonstrating why machine learning methods are particularly well suited for administrative labor market data and outperform traditional statistical approaches. We compare logit, ordinary least squares (OLS), k-nearest neighbors, and random forest (RF). RF consistently achieves the highest predictive performance. Its advantage is rooted in key methodological properties: RF builds an ensemble of decision trees trained on bootstrap samples, introduces random feature selection at each split, and aggregates predictions through majority voting. This enables RF to capture nonlinear relationships and complex interactions, remain robust in high-dimensional settings, and reduce overfitting — features that are particularly relevant for heterogeneous and imbalanced administrative data. Compared to conventional models, RF better exploits the full informational content of employment histories, especially when estimating on all employment spells rather than restricting the sample to unemployment-to-employment transitions. The sample comprises approximately 55 million spells, representing about 6 percent of the German workforce from 2012 to 2018. Our results suggest that ML-based matching, relative to standard statistical approaches, could hypothetically reduce the unemployment rate by up to 0.3 percentage points, highlighting the practical relevance of RF-based decision support for labor market policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Elsevier) ((en))

    Beteiligte aus dem IAB

    Mühlbauer, Sabrina ; Weber, Enzo ;
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    Fehler mit System. Scheiternde Digitalisierung in der Arbeit (2026)

    Nies, Sarah ; Kern, Annemarie; Neumer, Judith; Heim, Jana; Rieger, Samuel; Schneiß, Daniel ; Heiland, Heiner ; Sommer, Matthias; Zierott, Lea P.; Brödner, Peter; Dolata, Ulrich; Pongratz, Hans J. ; Altendorf-Schöpke, Antonia; Petersen, Benjamin Henry; Schneider, Pauline ; Schulz-Schaeffer, Ingo; Ritter, Tobias; Wiggert, Kevin; Nies, Sarah ; Heiland, Heiner ; Clausnitzer, Tim; Kuhlmann, Martin; Meister, Martin; Bolte, Annegret; Faust, Michael; Ferschli, Benjamin; Sommer, Matthias; Heinlein, Michael ; Rieger, Samuel; Gerber, Christine ; Kern, Annemarie;

    Zitatform

    Nies, Sarah, Heiner Heiland, Annemarie Kern, Samuel Rieger & Matthias Sommer (Hrsg.) (2026): Fehler mit System. Scheiternde Digitalisierung in der Arbeit. (Arbeit - Organisation - Politik), Weinheim: Beltz Juventa, 360 S. DOI:10.3262/978-3-7799-9024-6

    Abstract

    "Das große Versprechen digitaler Technologien liegt in der technischen Bewältigung betrieblicher und ökonomischer Widersprüche. Die Betrachtung konkreter Digitalisierungsprojekte offenbart jedoch: Digitalisierung scheitert ständig. Die Beiträge des Bandes diskutieren die Diskrepanz von Digitalisierungsversprechen und dem allgegenwärtigen Phänomen scheiternder Digitalisierungen, die zugrundeliegenden Widersprüche zwischen technischer Rationalität und arbeitsweltlichen Realitäten und die Folgen für Machtverhältnisse, Interessenkonflikte und Belastungskonstellationen." (Verlagsangaben, IAB-Doku)

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