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Schneider, Friedrich (2017): Implausible large differences in the sizes of underground economies in highly developed European countries? A comparison of different estimation methods. (CESifo working paper 6522), München, 25 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, first, the MIMIC estimation method is described and criticized and due to a double counting problem a correction is suggested. Second, the measurement methods used for National Accounts Statistics - the discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods - are described and a third, a micro method, using a combination of company manager surveys and their knowledge to calibrate the size of the shadow economy in firms, is presented, too. Third, a detailed comparison of the four micro estimation methods with the MIMIC and the corrected MIMIC method are presented. One major result is that the corrected MIMIC method, especially, comes quite close to various types of lately developed micro survey methods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Shapland, Joanna & Jason Heyes (2017): How close are formal and informal work? In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 37, H. 7/8, S. 374-386. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-06-2016-0071

Abstract

"Purpose
Recent changes in the UK to the regulation and modes of work in the formal and informal economies are considered. Research in this field has tended to remain in silos (treating formal economy working conditions separately from research on the informal economy). The question is whether the means of work and benefits to the worker for formal and informal work are now as different as the former images of formal and informal economy work imply under a 'jobs-for-life' economy. The purpose of this paper is to consider whether the current aim of government regulation of the informal economy - to formalise it - is actually of benefit to workers, as might be supposed.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper considers recent research findings on the formal and informal economy, using official government statistics for the UK and more detailed European studies on the informal economy.
Findings
This paper argues that formal employment in the UK is becoming more casualised, with less associated benefits to employees. Though it is still of benefit to the state to formalise informal work (to increase tax take), some of the links between formalisation and a good working environment for workers are being broken, which may lead to the informal economy becoming more popular and requiring different priorities in its regulation.
Originality/value
This paper argues that we need to change our assumptions and image of work in the formal economy, compared to that in the informal economy." (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

Zitatform

Slack, Tim, Leif Cope, Michael R. Jensen & Ann R. Tickamyer (2017): Social embeddedness, formal labor supply, and participation in informal work. In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 37, H. 3/4, S. 248-264. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-02-2016-0022

Abstract

"Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze data from the first-ever national-level study of informal work in the USA to test two prominent points of focus in the literature: how participation in informal work relates to social embeddedness and formal labor supply. This paper also provides a comparative test of the factors associated with exchange-based informal work (i.e. money/barter) vs self-provisioning activities.
Design/methodology/approach: The study draws on data from a national-level household telephone survey and uses descriptive statistics and logistic regression models.
Findings: The data show that participation in the informal economy is widespread in the USA. Consistent with theory, it is found that measures of social embeddedness and formal labor supply are much more salient for predicting participation in informal work for money/barter compared to self-provisioning.
Originality/value: Drawing on unique data from the first national-level household survey of informal work in the USA, this study provides generalizable support for the contention that the informal sector stands as a persistent structural feature in modern society. The results build on the wealth of information produced by qualitative case studies examining informal economic activity as well as a smaller number of regionally targeted surveys to provide important theoretical insights." (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Tangermann, Julian & Janne Grote (2017): Illegale Beschäftigung von Drittstaatsangehörigen in Deutschland. Studie der deutschen nationalen Kontaktstelle für das Europäische Migrationsnetzwerk (EMN). (Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. Working paper 74), Nürnberg, 72 S.

Abstract

"In der Diskussion über illegale Beschäftigung standen in der jüngeren Vergangenheit immer wieder sowohl deutsche als auch ausländische Beschäftigte im Fokus. Jüngst gerieten Geflüchtete ins Rampenlicht, obwohl es keine verlässlichen Erkenntnisse darüber gibt, dass sie überproportional häufig einer illegalen Beschäftigung nachgehen. Auch in Bezug zur illegalen Beschäftigung von Drittstaatsangehörigen im Allgemeinen gibt es nur wenige verlässliche statistische Kennzahlen. Die vorhandenen Daten werden in der Studie diskutiert. Darüber hinaus werden die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen, die zentralen Akteure zur Kontrolle und Präventionsarbeit sowie die Folgen für Arbeitgeberinnen und Arbeitgeber und für illegal beschäftigte Drittstaatsangehörige selbst beschrieben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Williams, Colin C., Predrag Bejakovic, Davor Mikulic, Josip Franic, Abbi Kedir & Ioana A. Horodnic (2017): An evaluation of the scale of undeclared work in the European Union and its structural determinants. Estimates using the Labour Input Method. Brüssel, 29 S. DOI:10.2767/98169

Abstract

"How big is undeclared work in the EU? According to this study, more than 11% of work in the private sector is 'under the table'. However, there are big differences between EU countries, with Poland, Romania and Lithuania having the highest levels of undeclared work, while Germany and the Netherlands have low shares. The study analyses the reasons for this and examines the types of employments where undeclared work is more frequent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Williams, Colin C. & Ioana A. Horodnic (2017): Evaluating the relationship between social exclusion and participation in the informal sector in the European Union. In: International journal of manpower, Jg. 38, H. 3, S. 489-503. DOI:10.1108/IJM-10-2015-0179

Abstract

"Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate who engages in informal work. The intention in doing so is to analyse whether important causal factors of social exclusion such as age, education, gender and employment status influence participation in informal work in the European Union.
Design/methodology/approach: To do this, a 2013 Eurobarometer survey of who participates in undeclared work in 28 European member states is reported.
Findings: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, the finding is that although some marginalised groups (the unemployed, those having difficulties paying their household bills, the working class and younger age groups) are significantly more likely to participate in the informal sector, others are not (those with less formal education and living in rural areas) and yet others (women and people in deprived European regions) are significantly less likely to participate.
Research limitations/implications: The outcome is a call for a nuanced and variegated understanding of the relationship between participation in the informal sector and social exclusion.
Practical implications: These results display the specific populations that need targeting when seeking to tackle informal work, revealing for example that the current the allocation of European funds for tackling informal work in poorer EU regions is mistaken, but that the targeting of the unemployed is not and current policy initiatives such as smoothing the transition from unemployment to self-employment worthwhile.
Originality/value: This is the first extensive evaluation of the relationship between participation in the informal sector and social exclusion at the level of the European Union" (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

Abstract

"Der nun vom Bundeskabinett beschlossene Dreizehnte Bericht zeigt auf, dass nahezu alle, insbesondere lohnintensive Wirtschaftszweige von Schwarzarbeit und illegaler Beschäftigung betroffen sind. Die Schwerpunkte liegen dabei unter anderem in den im Schwarzarbeitsbekämpfungsgesetz und im Vierten Sozialgesetzbuch genannten Branchen, wie beispielsweise das Bau-, das Gaststätten- und Beherbergungs-, das Personenbeförderungs-, das Speditions-, Transport- und Logistik-, das Gebäudereinigungsgewerbe sowie die Fleischwirtschaft.
Der Bericht berücksichtigt die Stellungnahmen der Länder, der betroffenen Bundesressorts, der Generalzolldirektion sowie weiterer Behörden, Interessenvertretungen und Gewerkschaften und stellt die Entwicklung im Zeitraum von 2013 bis 2016 dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bundesministerium der Finanzen (2017): Finanzkontrolle Schwarzarbeit - Kontrolle von Mindestlöhnen 2016. Antwort der Bundesregierung auf die Kleine Anfrage der Abgeordneten und der Fraktion BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN (Drucksache 18/11304). (Verhandlungen des Deutschen Bundestages. Drucksachen 18/11475 (10.03.2017)), 20 S.

Abstract

Die Bundesregierung antwortet auf die Anfrage der Fraktion BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN zur Kontrolle von Mindestlöhnen durch die Finanzkontrolle Schwarzarbeit im Jahr 2016. (IAB)

Zitatform

Di Caro, Paolo & Giuseppe Nicotra (2016): Short, long and spatial dynamics of informal employment. In: Regional Studies. Journal of the Regional Studies Association, Jg. 50, H. 11, S. 1804-1818. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2015.1072274

Abstract

"In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir regionale Schattenarbeitsmärkte. Wir führen überregionale Migrationsströme in ein stochastisches Zweisektorenmodell ein, das zur Untersuchung der Auswirkungen der regionalen Wechselwirkungen auf die Informalität genutzt wird. Aus den empirischen Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass informelle Tätigkeiten in italienischen Regionen durch die ineffiziente Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter sowie durch hohe Steuern bedingt sind. Regionale Verbindungen werden als signifikant befunden. Wir untersuchen ortsspezifische Reaktionen der informellen Beschäftigung auf nationale Schocks in der offiziellen Wirtschaft und stellen fest, dass der informelle Sektor formelle Tätigkeiten ergänzen oder ersetzen kann. Anschließend erörtern wir die zusammengefassten Ergebnisse und politischen Schlussfolgerungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Flórez, Luz Adriana & Francisco Perales (2016): Labour protection and informal work. A cross-national analysis of european countries, 2004-2012. In: International Labour Review, Jg. 155, H. 4, S. 623-650. DOI:10.1111/j.1564-913X.2015.00049.x

Abstract

"Informal work, defined as work performed without a formal contract, lowers productivity, reduces tax revenue and hampers economic growth. Reducing informal work is a policy objective in developed and developing countries alike. Yet, particularly since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, most socio-economic policy reforms across Europe have reduced the generosity of unemployment benefit schemes and deregulated employment protection. The authors argue that, while such reforms may have contributed to reducing unemployment, they might also have increased the incidence of informal work. Using European Social Survey data for 2004 - 12, they find that labour protection is effective in reducing informal wage employment." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

Zitatform

Goel, Rajeev K. & Michael A. Nelson (2016): Robust determinants of the shadow economy. An international comparison. (CESifo working paper 5873), München, 36 S.

Abstract

"To synthesize the literature on determinants of the shadow economy, this paper uses three cross-national shadow economy measures and employs numerous determinants over hundreds of model combinations to identify robust determinants of the shadow economy and address modelling uncertainty. We find that bureaucratic complexity is more significant than monetary severity in driving shadow activity. The incentives of new shadow entrepreneurs are somewhat different. A one standard deviation increase in tax complexity increases overall shadow economy by over ten percent of the mean. In contrast, a similar increase in business startup costs increases new informal entrepreneurs by almost more than double." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hassan, Mai & Friedrich Schneider (2016): Size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries worldwide. Updated and new measures from 1999 to 2013. (IZA discussion paper 10278), Bonn, 46 S.

Abstract

"This paper is a first attempt to study the size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries over 1999 to 2013. Using a MIMIC model, we find that higher tax and regulatory burden, unemployment and self-employment rates are drivers of the shadow economy, meaning that an increase of these causal variables increases the shadow economy. Our result also confirms previous findings of Friedrich Schneider, Andreas Buehn and Claudia Montenegro (2010). The estimated average of informality of 157 countries around the world, including developing, eastern European, central Asian and high income OECD countries averaged over 1999 to 2013 is 33.77% of official GDP. A critical discussion about the size of these macro-estimates comes to the conclusion that most likely the 'true' shadow economy of these countries is only 69% of their estimated macro-MIMIC-values." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Birthe Larsen (2016): Informal unemployment and education. In: IZA journal of labor economics, Jg. 5, S. 1-36. DOI:10.1186/s40172-016-0048-6

Abstract

"This paper develops a four-sector equilibrium search and matching model with informal sector employment opportunities and educational choice. We show that underground activities reduce educational attainments if informal employment opportunities mainly are available for low-educated workers. A more zealous enforcement policy will in this case improve educational incentives as it reduces the attractiveness of remaining a low-educated worker. However, unemployment also increases. Characterizing the optimal enforcement policies, we find that relatively more audits should be targeted towards the sector employing low-educated workers; elsewise, a too low stock of educated workers is materialized." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Mac Géidigh, Donal, Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum (2016): Grey matters: Charting the development of the shadow economy. (CESifo working paper 6234), München, 59 S.

Abstract

"The shadow economy has long been an area of research for policymakers. The determinants of underground activity of late have been identified as high tax burdens and increased regulation, but has this relationship always existed? This seminal work examines the shadow economy in Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States over the past 145 (from 1870 to 2015) years using the Currency Demand Approach and finds that the underground economy is stabilising. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to estimate the size and development of the shadow economy over such a long period and due to this we get some new insights. Our results clearly show that the shadow economy in earlier times was considerably higher than in the last 50 years. This paper also analyses whether a plateau has been reached and questions what efforts could be made to further reduce this informal economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Stiglitz, Joseph E. & Mark Pieth (2016): Overcoming the shadow economy. Berlin, 24 S.

Abstract

"There is a growing global consensus that the secrecy-havens-jurisdictions which undermine global standards for corporate and financial transparency-pose a global problem: they facilitate both money laundering and tax avoidance and evasion, contributing to crime and unacceptably high levels of global wealth inequality.
As economic leaders, the United States and Europe have an obligation to force financial centers to comply with global transparency standards. That they have the instruments to do so has been forcefully shown in the fight against terrorism. That they do not do so in the fight against corruption and tax avoidance and evasion is testimony to the power of the interests of those who benefit from secrecy.
In a globalized world, if there is any pocket of secrecy, funds will flow through that pocket. That is why the system of transparency has to be global. The US and EU are key in tipping the balance toward transparency, but this will only be the starting point: each country must play its role as a global citizen in order to shut down the shadow economy - and it is especially important that there emerge from the current secrecy havens some leaders to demonstrate that there are alternative models for growth and development.
Countries should position themselves proactively - not just complying with current minimal standards, but placing their economic development model at the cutting edge of the evolution of those standards. Each country must seriously consider whether it wants to be engaged in a never-ending struggle to catch up to the evolving international standards, or serve as a model, setting standards that others will eventually be forced to emulate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berdiev, Aziz N., Cullen Pasquesi-Hill & James W. Saunoris (2015): Exploring the dynamics of the shadow economy across US states. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 47, H. 56, S. 6136-6147. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2015.1064081

Abstract

"This article examines the dynamics of the shadow economy using data for 50 US states over the period 1998 - 2008. Using a panel VAR model, we analyse the impulse response of the shadow economy to an orthogonal shock in capital tax rates, educational attainment, union participation and gross state product. We find evidence of significant dynamics underlying the relationship between the shadow economy and its determinants. The results remain robust to alternate measures of the determinants of the shadow economy, alternate causal ordering of the variables in the system and conditioning on the level of income in each state." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Bloch, Alice, Leena Kumarappan & Sonia Mckay (2015): Employer sanctions. The impact of workplace raids and fines on undocumented migrants and ethnic enclave employers. In: Critical social policy, Jg. 35, H. 1, S. 132-151. DOI:10.1177/0261018314545600

Abstract

"The context of this article is the use of employer sanctions, in the form of raids and fines on businesses found to be employing people who do not have permission to work in the UK, as a method of in-border immigration control. Drawing on qualitative interviews with undocumented migrants and ethnic enclave employers in London, this article examines the impact of sanctions from the perspectives of those who have been or are most likely to be affected. More specifically the article sheds light on individual experiences of and strategies against immigration enforcement raids, and the effect of raids on the labour market, conditions of work and more widely, on local community relations. The paper concludes that there is a disjuncture between the real impact of sanctions and at least some of the stated policy aims." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bosch, Mariano & Julen Esteban-Pretel (2015): The labor market effects of introducing unemployment benefits in an economy with high informality. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 75, H. April, S. 1-17. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.10.010

Abstract

"Unemployment benefit systems are nonexistent in many developing economies. Introducing such systems poses many challenges which are partly due to the high level of informality in the labor markets of these economies. This paper studies the consequences on the labor market of implementing an unemployment benefit system in economies with large informal sectors and high flows of workers between formality and informality. We build a search and matching model with endogenous destruction, on-the-jobsearch, and intersectoral flows, where agents in the economy decide optimally whether or not to formalize jobs. We calibrate the model for Mexico, and show that the introduction of an unemployment benefit system, where workers contribute when employed in the formal market and collect benefits when they lose their jobs, even if they obtain informal jobs, can lead to an increase in formality in the economy, while also producing small increases in unemployment. The exact impact of incorporating such benefits depends on the relative strength of two opposing effects: the generosity of the benefits and the level of the contributions that finance those benefits. We also show important policy complementarities with other interventions in the labor market. In particular, combining the unemployment benefit program with policies that reduce the cost of formality, such as lower employment taxes and firing costs, can produce greater decreases in informality and lower impacts on unemployment than when the program is applied in isolation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Camacho, Carmen, Fabio Mariani & Luca Pensieroso (2015): Illegal immigration and the shadow economy. (IZA discussion paper 9545), Bonn, 31 S.

Abstract

"We build a general equilibrium model in which both illegal immigration and the size of the informal sector are endogenously determined. In this framework, we show that indirect policy measures such as tax reduction and detection of informal activities can be used as substitutes for border enforcement, in order to contrast illegal immigration. We also find that a welfare-maximising Government that includes illegal immigration in its objective function, instead of focusing on the well-being of native workers only, will set the tax rate to a lower value." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Herwartz, Helmut, Egle Tafenau & Friedrich Schneider (2015): One share fits all? Regional variations in the extent of the shadow economy in Europe. In: Regional studies, Jg. 49, H. 4, S. 1575-1587. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2013.848034

Abstract

"Mit Hilfe des MIMIC-Ansatzes (multiple indicators multiple causes) und unter Berücksichtigung von räumlichen Effekten wird die Schattenwirtschaft der europäischen Regionen für die Jahre 2007 und 2008 geschätzt. Die kleinsten regionalen Schattenwirtschaftssektoren sind in Regionen von Holland und Dänemark zu finden. Die größten Sektoren findet man in Regionen von Griechenland, Polen, Portugal und Rumänien. In einigen Ländern gibt es bemerkenswerte Unterschiede in der Größe der regionalen Schattenwirtschaft, sodass die Durchschnittswerte für diese Länder verzerrt sind. Darüber hinaus verändern sich die Strukturhilfen von Seiten der EU für einige Regionen, falls die Schattenwirtschaft beim Ausweis ihres offiziellen BIP vollständig berücksichtigt werden würde." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)