Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
The aging-inflation puzzle: On the interplay between aging, inflation and pension system (2018)
Härtl, Klaus; Leite, Duarte N.;Zitatform
Härtl, Klaus & Duarte N. Leite (2018): The aging-inflation puzzle: On the interplay between aging, inflation and pension system. (MEA discussion papers / Munich Center for the Economics of Aging 2018,06), München, 56 S.
Abstract
"Dieser Beitrag diskutiert den empirisch beobachteten Zusammenhang zwischen demographischem Wandel und Inflation und untersucht dabei die Art dieser rätselhaften Beziehung mithilfe einer theoretischen Methodik. Die Arbeit setzt die gegensätzlichen empirischen Befunde in der Literatur in Beziehung zueinander, indem sie ein Modell der überlappenden Generationen (OLG) anwendet, das mit einem Money-in-the-Utility-Modell (MIU) kombiniert wird. Während der demografische Wandel voranschreitet, wirken sich individuelle Lebenszyklusentscheidungen auf die Konsumnachfrage und Geldbestände und folglich auf Preisänderungen aus. Wir unterscheiden beim demografischen Wandel zwischen Veränderungen der Bevölkerungsgröße und -struktur und zeigen, wie sich diese Faktoren in einer alternden Gesellschaft einzeln auf die Inflation auswirken. Veränderungen in der Bevölkerungsgröße sind die Hauptursache für den Zusammenhang zwischen Alterung und Inflation, während Veränderungen in der Bevölkerungsstruktur von geringerer Bedeutung sind. Wir untersuchen auch, wie sich die Einführung und die daraus folgenden Implikationen eines öffentlichen, umlagefinanzierten Rentensystems negativ auf die Inflation auswirken. Im Gegensatz dazu haben endogene Arbeitsreaktionen einen abschwächenden Effekt auf diese negative Wirkung auf die Inflation. Für eine Auswahl an Ländern simulieren wir verschiedene Stadien des demografischen Wandels und unterschiedliche Großzügigkeiten der Rentensysteme. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass alternde Länder mit großzügigen PAYG-Rentensystemen einem starken Deflationsdruck ausgesetzt sind, während jüngere Länder einem Inflationsdruck ausgesetzt sind." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation (2018)
Nucci, Francesco; Riggi, Marianna;Zitatform
Nucci, Francesco & Marianna Riggi (2018): Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 55, H. March, S. 274-292. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.11.002
Abstract
"The fall in the US labor force participation during the Great Recession stands in sharp contrast with its parallel increase in the euro area. In addition to structural forces, cyclical factors are also shown to account for these patterns, with the participation rate being procyclical in the US since the inception of the crisis and countercyclical in the euro area. We rationalize these diverging developments by using a general equilibrium business cycle model, which nests the endogenous participation decisions into a search and matching framework. We show that the 'added worker' effect might outweigh the 'discouragement effect' if real wage rigidities are allowed for and/or habit in consumers' preferences is sufficiently strong. We then draw the implications of variable labor force participation for inflation and establish the following result: if endogenous movements in labor market participation are envisaged, then the degree of real wage rigidities becomes almost irrelevant for price dynamics. Indeed, during recessions, the upward pressures on inflation stemming from the lack of downward adjustment of real wages are offset by an opposite influence from the additional looseness in the labor market, due to the higher participation associated with wage rigidities." (Author's abstract, © 2017 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters (2018)
Zitatform
Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera (2018): Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations. An empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 50, H. 42, S. 4540-4555. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2018.1458193
Abstract
"Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area? (2017)
Bulligan, Guido; Viviano, Eliana;Zitatform
Bulligan, Guido & Eliana Viviano (2017): Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area? In: IZA journal of labor policy, Jg. 6, S. 1-22. DOI:10.1186/s40173-017-0087-z
Abstract
"Increasing evidence shows that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, in the euro area, the relationship between price inflation and economic slack became stronger. Instead, there is no clear evidence of a strong(er) relationship between wage inflation and unemployment. In this paper, we estimate a Phillips curve with time-varying coefficients separately for Italy, Spain, Germany and France and we find that, with the exception of Germany, after the global financial crisis, the sensitivity of hourly wage changes to labour market slack increased. Second, by the use of administrative microdata, available only for Italy, we relate daily wage changes to the local unemployment rate. The results confirm the steepening of the Phillips curve after 2008, also when controlling for composition effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Pre-recession wage inflation and the strength of the subsequent recovery (2017)
Campbell, Carl M.;Zitatform
Campbell, Carl M. (2017): Pre-recession wage inflation and the strength of the subsequent recovery. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 24, H. 18, S. 1331-1334. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2016.1276264
Abstract
"This study shows that the rate of wage inflation in the year before a recession is positively related to the rate of employment growth in the subsequent recovery. A possible explanation for this relationship is downward nominal wage rigidity. It is also found that the prior rate of wage inflation is not significantly related to the employment decline during the ensuing recession, suggesting that prior wage inflation has a greater impact on the strength of the recovery from a recession than on the severity of the recession." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain (2017)
Gehrke, Britta; Yao, Fang;Zitatform
Gehrke, Britta & Fang Yao (2017): Are supply shocks important for real exchange rates? A fresh view from the frequency-domain. In: Journal of International Money and Finance, Jg. 79, H. December, S. 99-114., 2017-09-08. DOI:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.09.008
Abstract
"This paper re-examines the role of supply shocks for real exchange rate fluctuations and contributes by exploiting insights from the frequency-domain perspective. In contrast to the existing literature, our empirical findings point towards an important role played by supply (productivity) shocks in driving US real effective exchange rate fluctuations at low frequencies, while real demand shocks matter mostly at high and medium frequencies. In addition, we propose an approach to structurally decompose the persistence of the real exchange rate and find that supply shocks explain up to half of its persistence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Gehrke, Britta; -
Literaturhinweis
The labour share and the dynamics of output (2017)
Malikane, Christopher;Zitatform
Malikane, Christopher (2017): The labour share and the dynamics of output. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 49, H. 37, S. 3741-3750. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2016.1267845
Abstract
"We derive a new Keynesian IS curve that is augmented to capture the direct effects of the labour share on output. Our derivation shows that the direct effect of the labour share on output is ambiguous. Furthermore, theory suggests that the expected labour share negatively affects output. Empirically, we find that the labour share plays a significant role in driving output dynamics. However contrary to theoretical expectation, the expected labour share positively affects output in some cases, a finding we call the 'labour share puzzle'. We also find that over time, there seems to be a general shift in aggregate demand dynamics towards being profit-led, i.e. rising labour share decreases output. We conclude that policymakers should not ignore the labour share in their decisions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
'Modern' Phillips curves and the implications for the statistical process of inflation (2017)
Russell, Bill;Zitatform
Russell, Bill (2017): 'Modern' Phillips curves and the implications for the statistical process of inflation. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 24, H. 1, S. 58-60. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2016.1161710
Abstract
"'Modern' theories of the Phillips curve imply that inflation is an integrated, or near integrated' process. This article explains this implication and why these 'modern' theories are logically inconsistent with what is commonly known about the statistical process of inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Liquidity traps and jobless recoveries (2017)
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín;Zitatform
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Martín Uribe (2017): Liquidity traps and jobless recoveries. In: American Economic Journal. Macroeconomics, Jg. 9, H. 1, S. 165-204. DOI:10.1257/mac.20150220
Abstract
"This paper proposes a model that explains the joint occurrence of liquidity traps and jobless growth recoveries. Its key elements are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor- type interest rate feedback rule, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, and a confidence shock. Absent a change in policy, the model predicts that low inflation and high unemployment become chronic. With capital accumulation, the model predicts, in addition, an investment slump. The paper identifies a New Fisherian effect, whereby raising the nominal interest rate to its intended target for an extended period of time can boost inflationary expectations and thereby foster employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market frictions and monetary policy design (2016)
Almosova, Anna;Zitatform
Almosova, Anna (2016): Labor market frictions and monetary policy design. (Sonderforschungsbereich Ökonomisches Risiko. Discussion paper 2016-054), Berlin, 41 S.
Abstract
"This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with search frictions and monetary rules augmented with different labor market indicators. In accordance with a theoretical literature I find that a central bank reacts to a labor market tightness, employment or unemployment. Posterior odds tests speak in favor of models with augmented Taylor rules versus a model with a model with a standard rule. The augmented rules were also shown to be more efficient in terms of welfare." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Comment on "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment" (2016)
Boldrin, Michele;Zitatform
Boldrin, Michele (2016): Comment on "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment". In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 26-32. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.12.005
Abstract
"My comments are divided in two parts, of unequal lengths. The first, concerned with the specific contribution of Rudebusch and Williams (2016), explains why I find their argument for the differential role of short- and long-term un- employment in determining wage dynamics far from convincing. In doing so I will not dwell with the econometric technicalities that make up the bulk of the paper; they contribute little to understanding the main economic issues which I address. The second, much shorter, part of my comments takes the present paper as an example of the now widespread habit of adopting highly stylized reduced form models with inadequate economic foundations to derive crucial policy ad- vice. There are very many papers like this in the current money-macro literature and I do not mean to single this one out as anything special: it is just one example among many. Still, I do find this trend rather worrisome." (Text excerpt, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market frictions and optimal steady-state inflation (2016)
Carlsson, Mikael; Westermark, Andreas;Zitatform
Carlsson, Mikael & Andreas Westermark (2016): Labor market frictions and optimal steady-state inflation. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 78, H. April, S. 67-79. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.01.002
Abstract
"In central theories of monetary non-neutrality, the Ramsey optimal steady-state inflation rate varies between the negative of the real interest rate and zero. This paper explores how the interaction of nominal wage and search and matching frictions affect the policy prescription. We show that adding the combination of such frictions to the canonical monetary model can generate an optimal inflation rate that is significantly positive. Specifically, for a standard U.S. calibration, we find a Ramsey optimal inflation rate of 1.16 percent per year." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
NAIRU estimates for Germany: new evidence on the in?ation - unemployment tradeoff (2016)
Kajuth, Florian;Zitatform
Kajuth, Florian (2016): NAIRU estimates for Germany. New evidence on the in?ation - unemployment tradeoff. In: German Economic Review, Jg. 17, H. 1, S. 104-125. DOI:10.1111/geer.12055
Abstract
"Meaningful estimates of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) within a Phillips curve framework require an identified tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. However, observations of inflation and unemployment are equilibrium points giving rise to a simultaneity problem. We assess conventional identifying assumptions in the literature on the German NAIRU in a general bi-variate equations system of inflation and unemployment. We use a data-driven method for identification based on shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to identify the tradeoff for Germany. Our results support models which estimate a contemporaneous effect of unemployment on inflation and those which model inflation and unemployment jointly." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data (2016)
Kumar, Anil; Orrenius, Pia M.;Zitatform
Kumar, Anil & Pia M. Orrenius (2016): A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 84-102. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.003
Abstract
"Studies that estimate the Phillips curve for the U.S. use mainly national-level data and find mixed evidence of nonlinearity, with some recent studies either rejecting nonlinearity or estimating only modest convexity. In addition, most studies do not make a distinction between the relative impacts of short-term versus long-term unemployment on wage inflation. Using state-level data from 1982 to 2013, we find strong evidence that the wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex; declines in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure than changes in the unemployment rate above the historical average. We also find that the short-term unemployment rate has a strong relationship with both average and median wage growth, while the long-term unemployment rate appears to only influence median wage growth." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Did the global financial crisis break the U.S. Phillips Curve? (2016)
Laseen, Stefan; Taheri Sanjani, Marzie;Zitatform
Laseen, Stefan & Marzie Taheri Sanjani (2016): Did the global financial crisis break the U.S. Phillips Curve? (IMF working paper 2016,126), Washington, DC, 42 S.
Abstract
"Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models and show that changes in shocks are a more salient feature of the data than changes in coefficients. Hence, the GFC did not break the Phillips curve. By estimating variations of a regime-switching model, we show that allowing for regime switching solely in coefficients of the policy rule would maximize the fit. Additionally, using a data-rich reduced-form model we compute conditional forecast scenarios. We show that financial and external variables have the highest forecasting power for inflation and unemployment, post-GFC." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Comment on Rudebusch and Williams "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment" (2016)
Lothian, James R.;Zitatform
Lothian, James R. (2016): Comment on Rudebusch and Williams "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment". In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 19-25. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.08.006
Abstract
"Rudebusch and Williams (2015) conclude 'A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment' with the policy prescription 'Optimal policy should trade off a transitory period of excessive inflation in order to bring the broader measure of underemployment to normal levels more quickly.' The question that I address is whether our knowledge of the dynamics linking monetary policy, inflation and real growth is sufficiently well-developed that policy recommendations of the sort that Rudebusch and Williams proffer can be effective. I present two bodies of empirical evidence pertinent to this issue. The first has to do with the Phillips Curve itself; the second with the class of models now used to analyze the economic effects of monetary policy." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment (2016)
Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Williams, John C.;Zitatform
Rudebusch, Glenn D. & John C. Williams (2016): A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 47, H. March/Pt. A, S. 5-18. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.05.001
Abstract
"In standard macroeconomic models, the two objectives in the Federal Reserve's dual mandate -- full employment and price stability -- are closely intertwined. We motivate and estimate an alternative model in which long-term unemployment varies endogenously over the business cycle but does not affect price inflation. In this new model, an increase in long-term unemployment as a share of total unemployment creates short-term trade- offs for optimal monetary policy and a wedge in the dual mandate. In particular, faced with high long-term unemployment following the Great Recession, optimal monetary pol- icy would allow inflation to overshoot its target more than in standard models." (Author's abstract, © 2016 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Measuring the US NAIRU as a step function (2016)
Yamada, Hiroshi; Yoon, Gawon;Zitatform
Yamada, Hiroshi & Gawon Yoon (2016): Measuring the US NAIRU as a step function. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 51, H. 4, S. 1679-1688. DOI:10.1007/s00181-015-1048-2
Abstract
"This paper reestimates the time-varying nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in the US. By assuming the NAIRU is a step function, not a smooth function, we show that a simple empirical model provides evidence supporting the consensus among macroeconomists that the US NAIRU was constant at about 6.0% from the 1980s to the mid-1990s and then fell sharply below 6.0% in the late 1990s." (Author's abstract, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labour market institutions and inflation differentials in the EU (2015)
Zitatform
D'Adamo, Gaetano & Riccardo Rovelli (2015): Labour market institutions and inflation differentials in the EU. (IZA discussion paper 9389), Bonn, 40 S.
Abstract
"Adopting a simple Phillips curve framework, we show that different labour market institutions across EU countries are associated with significant differences in the response of inflation to unemployment and exchange rate shocks. More wage coordination and higher union density flatten the Phillips curve and increase the inflation response to the real exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through. In addition, using a new approach to the classification of goods and services as 'traded' or 'non-traded', we show that both these institutional effects are significantly stronger for the more exposed (traded) sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy (2015)
Zitatform
Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Mewael Tesfaselassie (2015): Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy. (Kieler Arbeitspapier 2003), Kiel, 23 S.
Abstract
"We analyze the implications of changes in the trend growth rate for optimal monetary policy in the presence of search and matching unemployment. We show that trend growth in itself does not generate a trade-off for the monetary authority, but that it interacts importantly with the inefficiencies stemming from the labor market. Higher trend growth exacerbates the inefficiencies of the labor market and therefore calls for larger deviations from price stability." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labour market reforms in the Euro area: a DSGE approach (2015)
Presidente, Giorgio;Zitatform
Presidente, Giorgio (2015): Labour market reforms in the Euro area. A DSGE approach. (ILO research paper 12), Genf, 24 S.
Abstract
"Empirical work on the impacts of labour market institutions has produced mixed results. Much of this literature is based on reduced form regressions that are subject to severe econometric and measurement issues. This paper develops a framework to study the impact of labour market institutions in the context of a DSGE model. The advantage of using a DSGE model is that one can observe the general equilibrium outcomes of truly exogenous shifts in labour market policy. In addition, this class of models are flexible, can be easily estimated and one can undertake policy simulations and counterfactual exercises. After inspecting the short and long run response of key variables to several labour market reforms, an application to the Euro area reveals that between 1970 and 2003, changes in labour market institutions had only a limited impact on the volatility of output, inflation and unemployment. These results stand in contrast to theories attributing to excessive regulation for the rise and persistence of European unemployment. In addition, they suggest that labour market frictions are at most of marginal interest for central banks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment (2015)
Rusticelli, Elena; Turner, David; Cavalleri, Maria Chiara;Zitatform
Rusticelli, Elena, David Turner & Maria Chiara Cavalleri (2015): Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment. (OECD Economics Department working papers 1231), Paris, 35 S. DOI:10.1787/5js1gmq551wd-en
Abstract
"Inflation has become much less sensitive to movements in unemployment in recent decades. A common explanation for this change is that inflation expectations have become better anchored as a consequence of credible inflation targeting by central banks. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the paper compares two competing empirical specifications across all OECD economies, where competing specifications correspond to the 'former' and 'new' specification for deriving measures of the unemployment gap which underlie the OECD's Economic Outlook projections. The former OECD specification can be characterised as a traditional 'backward-looking' Phillips curve, where current inflation is partly explained by an autoregressive distributed lag process of past inflation representing both inertia and inflation expectations formed on the basis of recent inflation outcomes. Conversely, the new approach adjusts this specification to incorporate the notion that inflation expectations are anchored around the central bank's inflation objective. The main finding of the paper is that the latter approach systematically out-performs the former for an overwhelming majority of OECD countries over a recent sample period. Relative to the backward-looking specification, the anchored expectations approach also tends to imply larger unemployment gaps for those countries for which actual unemployment has increased the most. Moreover, the anchored expectations Phillips curve reduces real-time revisions to the unemployment gap, although these still remain uncomfortably large, in the case of countries where there have been large changes in unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The happiness trade-off between unemployment and inflation (2014)
Zitatform
Blanchflower, David G., David N. F. Bell, Alberto Montagnoli & Mirko Moro (2014): The happiness trade-off between unemployment and inflation. In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jg. 46, H. S2, S. 117-141. DOI:10.1111/jmcb.12154
Abstract
"Unemployment and inflation lower well-being. The macroeconomist Arthur Okun characterized the negative effects of unemployment and inflation by the misery index - the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. This paper makes use of a large European data set, covering the period 1975 - 2013, to estimate happiness equations in which an individual subjective measure of life satisfaction is regressed against unemployment and inflation rate (controlling for personal characteristics, country, and year fixed effects). We find, conventionally, that both higher unemployment and higher inflation lower well-being. We also discover that unemployment depresses well-being more than inflation. We characterize this well-being trade-off between unemployment and inflation using what we describe as the misery ratio. Our estimates with European data imply that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate lowers well-being by more than five times as much as a 1 percentage point increase in the inflation rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market institutions and the response of inflation to macro shocks in the EU: a two-sector analysis (2013)
Zitatform
D'Adamo, Gaetano & Riccardo Rovelli (2013): Labor market institutions and the response of inflation to macro shocks in the EU. A two-sector analysis. (IZA discussion paper 7616), Bonn, 23 S.
Abstract
"We model empirically the role of labor market institutions in affecting the response of inflation to labor market and exchange rate shocks in the EU. We adopt a simple Phillips curve framework, treating separately the sectors producing traded and non-traded goods. Our results show that labor market institutions have a significant role in affecting cross-country differences in inflation adjustment for the 'sheltered' (non-trading) sector; the effects in the 'exposed' (trading) sector are also significant but more limited. Increased wage coordination and more expenditure on LM policies (active or total) flatten the Phillips curve in both sectors. More active LM policies also reduce the persistence of inflation. However, but only in the non-trading sector, this effect is more than offset (in 15 countries out of 21) by the presence of stronger wage coordination, which increases the persistence of inflation. Finally, the adjustment of inflation to the real exchange rate, i.e. the exchange rate pass-through, is largely unaffected by institutional variables; only for non-tradables there is a strong negative effect of increased union density." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Political support in hard times: do people care about national welfare? (2013)
Friedrichsen, Jana; Zahn, Philipp;Zitatform
Friedrichsen, Jana & Philipp Zahn (2013): Political support in hard times. Do people care about national welfare? (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. Discussion papers SP 2 2013-212), Berlin, 39 S.
Abstract
"During the Great Recession mass demonstrations indicated weakened political support in Europe. We show that growing dissatisfaction often reflects poor economic conditions and unemployment is particularly important. Using individual level data for 16 Western European countries for 1976 - 2010, we find that national economic performance matters even beyond personal economic outcomes. Finally, while the effects of growth and unemployment rates are the same across demographic subsets, the effect of inflation is heterogeneous. Well-educated or working individuals put a relatively higher weight on price stability than the less skilled or not working. Our findings reinforce the political importance of employment and growth policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Nominal and real wage rigidities: in theory and in Europe (2013)
Knell, Markus;Zitatform
Knell, Markus (2013): Nominal and real wage rigidities. In theory and in Europe. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 36, H. June, S. 89-105. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.01.006
Abstract
"In this paper I study the relation between real wage rigidity (RWR) and nominal price and wage rigidity. I show that in a standard DSGE model RWR is mainly affected by the interaction of the two nominal rigidities and not by other structural parameters. The degree of RWR is, however, considerably influenced by the modelling assumption about the structure of wage contracts (Calvo vs. Taylor) and about other institutional characteristics of wage-setting (clustering of contracts, heterogeneous contract length, indexation). I use survey evidence on price- and wage-setting for 15 European countries to calculate the degrees of RWR implied by the theoretical model. The average level of RWR is broadly in line with empirical estimates based on macroeconomic data. In order to be able to also match the observed cross-country variation in RWR it is, however, essential to move beyond the country-specific durations of price and wages and to take more institutional details into account." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Real wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy (2013)
Rhee, Hyuk Jae; Song, Jeongseok;Zitatform
Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Jeongseok Song (2013): Real wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 37, H. September, S. 110-127. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.04.004
Abstract
"The main objective of the study is to provide a theoretical analysis of optimal monetary policy in a small open economy where households set real wage in a staggered fashion. The introduction of real wage rigidities plays a important role to resolve main shortcomings of the standard new Keynesian small open economy model. The main findings regarding the issue of monetary policy design can be summarized as three fold. First, the optimal policy is to seek to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, real wage inflation, and the output gap if both domestic price and real wage are sticky. Second, controlling CPI inflation directly or indirectly induces relatively large volatility in output gap and other inflations. Therefore, both CPI inflation-based Taylor rule and nominal wage-inflation based Taylor rule are suboptimal. Last, a policy that responds to a real wage inflation is most desirable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis (2012)
Guichard, Stephanie; Rusticelli, Elena;Zitatform
Guichard, Stephanie & Elena Rusticelli (2012): Reassessing the NAIRUs after the crisis. (OECD Economics Department working papers 918), Paris, 27 S. DOI:10.1787/5kg0kp712f6l-en
Abstract
"The financial crisis has resulted in a substantial increase in unemployment in the OECD. This paper shows that this increase has reversed the reduction in structural unemployment which has been estimated to have occurred in most OECD countries since the late 1990s. Structural unemployment is defined as a time-varying NAIRU derived from the information contained in a reduced Phillips curve equation (linking inflation to the unemployment gap) by means of a Kalman filter. The overall limited revisions in historical NAIRU estimated in 2008 after such a large labour market shock support the robustness of the OECD approach. This approach is therefore extended to almost all OECD countries. Alternative specifications of the Phillips curve are proposed for some specific groups of countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A search model of unemployment and inflation (2012)
Lehmann, Etienne;Zitatform
Lehmann, Etienne (2012): A search model of unemployment and inflation. In: The Scandinavian journal of economics, Jg. 114, H. 1, S. 245-266. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2011.01670.x
Abstract
"This paper introduces money into the standard labor-matching model. A double-coincidence problem makes money necessary as a medium of exchange. In the long run, a rise in the growth rate of money leads to higher inflation and higher unemployment, such that the longrun Phillips curve is not vertical. The optimal monetary growth rate decreases with greater worker bargaining power, the level of unemployment benefits, and the payroll tax rate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wirtschaftskrisen: Geschichte und Gegenwart (2012)
Plumpe, Werner; Dubisch, Eva J.;Zitatform
Plumpe, Werner & Eva J. Dubisch (2012): Wirtschaftskrisen. Geschichte und Gegenwart. (Beck'sche Reihe: C.H. Beck Wissen 2701), München: Beck, 128 S.
Abstract
"Das Buch gibt einen knappen Überblick über Arten, Ursachen und Verläufe der Wirtschaftskrisen von der Frühmoderne bis zur Gegenwart und macht die heutigen Probleme dadurch erst richtig verständlich. Es zeigt sich, dass die immer wieder gezogenen Parallelen zur Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1929 mit ihren apokalyptischen Folgen ins Leere laufen. Die Krisen des letzten Jahrzehnts sind vielmehr durch Bedingungen geprägt, wie sie sich in der vergleichsweise liberalen Weltwirtschaft vor 1914 beobachten lassen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Incomes policies, expectations and the NAIRU (2012)
Pollan, Wolfgang;Zitatform
Pollan, Wolfgang (2012): Incomes policies, expectations and the NAIRU. (WIFO working papers 433), Wien, 18 S.
Abstract
"Since the 1960s, several countries have adopted incomes policies in various forms to control inflation that had been interpreted as the result of a distributional struggle between business and labour unions. Recent writings on the NAIRU, however, ignore past policy interventions in the wage and price setting system, in the formation and propagation of inflation expectations, in particular. Some of the problems inherent in such an approach are illustrated in this paper by applying the standard tools of NAIRU analysis to the Austrian economy, an economy that has been subject to a variety of policy measures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules (2012)
Proaño, Christian R.;Zitatform
Proaño, Christian R. (2012): Gradual wage-price adjustments, labor market frictions and monetary policy rules. In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Jg. 82, H. 1, S. 220-235. DOI:10.1016/j.jebo.2011.11.005
Abstract
"In this paper the role of different types of labor market frictions in the dynamics of output and inflation is investigated. For this purpose, the Keynes-Goodwin model discussed in Chen et al. (2006) and Franke et al. (2006) is extended by a labor search and matching module along the lines of Mortensen et al. (1994). After estimating the resulting model with U.S. aggregate time series and comparing its dynamics with those of a VAR model, the performance of different types of monetary policy rules for inflation, and more generally, for macroeconomic stability is analyzed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Should monetary policy take account of national labor market asymmetries in a currency union? (2012)
Proaño, Christian R.;Zitatform
Proaño, Christian R. (2012): Should monetary policy take account of national labor market asymmetries in a currency union? In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 32, H. 2, S. 1878-1889.
Abstract
"This paper investigates the design of optimal monetary policy in a currency union with asymmetric national labor markets. For this purpose a stylized theoretical two-country model is introduced where the occurrence of inflation differentials is a reflection of asymmetries in the labor market flexibility between the two countries. Through numerical simulations it is shown that a larger weight of the country with the more sclerotic labor market in the loss function of the monetary union's central bank is more advantageous at the monetary union's level than a simple weighting scheme based on the relative economic size of both countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems (2012)
Schreiber, Sven;Zitatform
Schreiber, Sven (2012): Estimating the natural rate of unemployment in euro-area countries with co-integrated systems. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 44, H. 10, S. 1315-1335. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2010.539548
Abstract
"Given that for France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands the unemployment rates are best classified as I(1), we apply permanent-transitory decompositions based on co-integrated Vector Autoregressions (VAR) with relevant variables (labour productivity, wages, tax wedges, foreign relative prices) to estimate the time-varying natural unemployment rates. In general all variables seem to matter, and the results are quite different from published Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nairus. Our implied unemployment gaps are better than the OECD gaps in predicting unemployment changes and inflation gaps, but they are (except for Italy) as bad as the OECD gaps for forecasting inflation changes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2012)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2012): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? In: European Economic Review, Jg. 56, H. 4, S. 870-887., 2012-02-15. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.02.013
Abstract
"Focusing on the compression of wage cuts, many empirical studies find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). However, the resulting macroeconomic effects seem to be surprisingly weak. This contradiction can be explained within an intertemporal framework in which DNWR not only prevents nominal wage cuts but also induces firms to compress wage increases. We analyze whether a compression of wage increases occurs when DNWR is binding by applying Unconditional Quantile Regression and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to a dataset comprising more than 169 million wage changes. We find evidence of a compression of wage increases and only very small effects of DNWR on average real wage growth. The results indicate that DNWR does not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities (2011)
Benigno, Pierpaolo; Ricci, Luca Antonio;Zitatform
Benigno, Pierpaolo & Luca Antonio Ricci (2011): The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities. In: The American economic review, Jg. 101, H. 4, S. 1436-1466. DOI:10.1257/aer.101.4.1436
Abstract
"The macroeconomic implications of downward nominal wage rigidities are analyzed via a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks. A closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outwards and reduces output. The results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across countries with different macroeconomic volatility. Results are robust to relaxing the wage constraint, for example, when large idiosyncratic shocks arise." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was Phillips right?: evidence from a dynamic panel (2011)
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Skare, Marinko;Zitatform
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Marinko Skare (2011): Employment growth, inflation and output growth: Was Phillips right? Evidence from a dynamic panel. (CESifo working paper 3502), München, 45 S.
Abstract
"In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in Phillips' tradition. For this purpose we apply FMOLS, DOLS, PMGE, MGE, DFE, and VECM methods to a nonstationary heterogeneous dynamic panel including annual data for 119 countries over the period 1970-2010, and also carry out multivariate Granger causality tests. The empirical results strongly support the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output growth, giving support to Phillips' Golden Triangle theory." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The return of the wage Phillips curve (2011)
Galí, Jordi;Zitatform
Galí, Jordi (2011): The return of the wage Phillips curve. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 9, H. 3, S. 436-461. DOI:10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01023.x
Abstract
"The standard New Keynesian model with staggered wage setting is shown to imply a simple dynamic relation between wage inflation and unemployment. Under some assumptions, that relation takes a form similar to that found in empirical wage equations - starting from Phillips' (1958) original work - and may thus be viewed as providing some theoretical foundations to the latter. The structural wage equation derived here is shown to account reasonably well for the comovement of wage inflation and the unemployment rate in the US economy, even under the strong assumption of a constant natural rate of unemployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The evolution of the Phillips Curve: a modern time series viewpoint (2011)
Granger, Clive W. J.; Jeon, Yongil;Zitatform
Granger, Clive W. J. & Yongil Jeon (2011): The evolution of the Phillips Curve. A modern time series viewpoint. In: Economica, Jg. 78, H. 309, S. 51-66. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00839.x
Abstract
"Phillips' (1958) original curve involves a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. We consider how his original results change due to updated theoretic and empirical studies, increased computer power, enlarged datasets, increases in data frequency and developed time series econometric models. In the linear models, there was weak causation from unemployment to inflation. Rather than using any of the many nonlinear models that are now available, we adopt a time-varying parameter linear model as their convenient proxy, which empirically supports Phillips' use of nonlinear model form and causation, but the strength of this result is much weaker in recent periods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How flexible are real wages in EU countries?: a panel investigation (2011)
Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand; Rusinova, Desislava;Zitatform
Heinz, Frigyes Ferdinand & Desislava Rusinova (2011): How flexible are real wages in EU countries? A panel investigation. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1360), Frankfurt, M., 32 S.
Abstract
"In this paper we estimate the degree of real wage flexibility in 19 EU countries1 in a wage Phillips curve panel framework. We find evidence for a reaction of wage growth to unemployment and productivity growth. However, due to unemployment persistence, over time the real wage response weakens substantially. Our results suggest that the degree of real wage flexibility tends to be larger in the central and eastern European (CEE) countries than in the euro area; weaker in downturns than during upswings. Moreover, there exists an inflation threshold, below which real wage flexibility seems to decrease. Finally, we find that part of the heterogeneity in real wage flexibility and unemployment might be related to differences in the wage bargaining institutions and more specifically the extent of labour market regulation in different country groups within the EU." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How costly is CPI inflation targeting: a two sector model with no labor mobility (2011)
Onmus-Baykal, Elif;Zitatform
Onmus-Baykal, Elif (2011): How costly is CPI inflation targeting. A two sector model with no labor mobility. In: The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Jg. 11, H. 1, S. 1-30. DOI:10.2202/1935-1690.1950
Abstract
"This paper studies the welfare costs of price rigidities in a closed economy without labor mobility. First, in a one-sector model, I find a significant welfare cost of price rigidities under a standard Taylor rule, especially when labor is immobile. In the one-sector model, strict CPI inflation targeting is able to eliminate the welfare cost of price rigidities, with or without labor mobility. Then, I develop a vertically integrated two-sector model with nominal and real rigidities where there is a natural distinction between the rates of inflation in the final and intermediate goods sectors. In the two-sector model, the real rigidities are introduced by assuming that labor is immobile across sectors and firms. In the model, labor immobility plays an allocative role and causes large fluctuations in hours of work. This, in turn, magnifies the welfare costs of nominal rigidities. I find that the welfare costs range from 1.62 percent to 2.33 percent of consumption per period for different degree of price rigidities under an estimated Taylor rule over the Volcker and Greenspan years. Taking the household welfare under optimal (Ramsey) monetary policy as a benchmark, I show that an optimal modified Taylor rule with two measures of inflation is able to bring welfare closer to the benchmark value and reduces the welfare costs substantially, even if labor mobility is restricted." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Matching labor's share in a search and matching model (2011)
Reicher, Christopher Phillip;Zitatform
Reicher, Christopher Phillip (2011): Matching labor's share in a search and matching model. (Kieler Arbeitspapier 1733), Kiel, 35 S.
Abstract
"In the United States, labor's share of income falls after a positive disturbance to productivity growth or inflation, and it remains low for some time. Previous researchers have argued that the negative relationship between productivity growth and labor's share is puzzling. I argue otherwise. A search and matching model with infrequently bargained nominal wages would predict the observed behavior of labor's share after a productivity disturbance, and it also predicts the observed behavior of labor's share after an inflationary disturbance. Wages at the macroeconomic level seem to be sticky in a way which is consistent with microeconomic evidence; much of the ongoing discussion about the real effects of sticky wages seems to be well-motivated, while sticky price models fail to match the data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Geldpolitik und Beschäftigung: Ist niedrige Inflation Gift für den Arbeitsmarkt? (2011)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beißinger (2011): Geldpolitik und Beschäftigung: Ist niedrige Inflation Gift für den Arbeitsmarkt? (IAB-Kurzbericht 02/2011), Nürnberg, 8 S.
Abstract
"Seit beinahe zwei Jahrzehnten gelingt es den Zentralbanken der westlichen Industrieländer, die Inflationsraten auf niedrigen Niveaus zu stabilisieren. Obwohl Preisstabilität als ein zentrales wirtschaftspolitisches Ziel gilt, werden darin auch Gefahren gesehen: Einige Wissenschaftler warnen davor, dass nach unten starre Nominallöhne in Verbindung mit einer niedrigen Inflation zu höherer Arbeitslosigkeit führen könnten. Neueste Forschungsergebnisse für Deutschland zeigen allerdings, dass von der sogenannten Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit kein nennenswerter negativer Einfluss auf die Arbeitslosenquote zu erwarten ist." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
- Verteilung der Lohnänderungen mit und ohne Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit nach bisherigen Studien
- Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit in ausgewählten EU-Mitgliedsländern
- Verteilung der Lohnänderungen mit Abwärts-Nominallohn-Starrheit (ANLS) nach neuesten Schätzungen
- Empirische Verteilung der Lohnänderungen in Deutschland von 2006 auf 2007
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Literaturhinweis
Elusive persistence: wage and price rigidities, the new Keynesian Phillips curve and inflation dynamics (2011)
Tsoukis, Christopher; Pearlman, Joseph; Kapetanios, George;Zitatform
Tsoukis, Christopher, George Kapetanios & Joseph Pearlman (2011): Elusive persistence. Wage and price rigidities, the new Keynesian Phillips curve and inflation dynamics. In: Journal of Economic Surveys, Jg. 25, H. 4, S. 737-768. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00622.x
Abstract
"We review the main New Keynesian inflation equations that have arisen as a result of aggregation from individual firms' price rigidities. We find that, on the whole, they cannot account for inflation persistence, a key feature of the empirical dynamics of inflation, and with important policy implications. The only exceptions seem to be when indexation is allowed in price setting or when price stickiness is combined with wage rigidity and staggering." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The magic triangle of macroeconomics: how do European countries score? (2011)
Welsch, Heinz;Zitatform
Welsch, Heinz (2011): The magic triangle of macroeconomics. How do European countries score? In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 63, H. 1, S. 71-93. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpq020
Abstract
"This paper studies the macroeconomic performance of the EU-12 member countries over 1990-2002 from the point of view of the subjective well-being (life satisfaction) of the citizens. The paper uses data for over 50,000 individuals and controls for personal characteristics (especially income and employment status). Life satisfaction is found to be negatively associated with the unemployment rate and inflation, but positively associated with the growth rate. In contrast to earlier findings, the weights placed on inflation and unemployment are of a similar magnitude. The life satisfaction regression is used to determine the weights to be attached to growth, employment, and price stability in a macroeconomic performance index. It is found that the overall macroeconomic performance ranking of the countries is robust across alternative specifications of the index." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor market institutions and the business cycle: Unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities (2010)
Abbritti, Mirko; Weber, Sebastian;Zitatform
Abbritti, Mirko & Sebastian Weber (2010): Labor market institutions and the business cycle: Unemployment rigidities vs. real wage rigidities. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1183), Frankfurt am Main, 46 S.
Abstract
"This paper investigates the importance of labor market institutions for inflation and unemployment dynamics. Using the New Keynesian framework we argue that labor market institutions should be divided into those institutions that cause Unemployment Rigidities (UR) and those that cause Real Wage Rigidities (RWR). The two types of institutions have opposite effects and their interaction is crucial for the dynamics of inflation and unemployment. We estimate a panel VAR with deterministically varying coefficients and find that there is a profound difference in the responses of unemployment and inflation to shocks under different constellations of the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The effects of age and job protection on the welfare costs of inflation and unemployment (2010)
Becchetti, Leonardo; Castriota, Stefano; Giuntella, Giovanni Osea;Zitatform
Becchetti, Leonardo, Stefano Castriota & Giovanni Osea Giuntella (2010): The effects of age and job protection on the welfare costs of inflation and unemployment. In: European journal of political economy, Jg. 26, H. 1, S. 137-146. DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2009.08.001
Abstract
"We extend the happiness literature on the welfare costs of inflation and unemployment by looking at age and job market characteristics. Our findings show that the relative welfare cost of unemployment versus inflation is higher than one, and much higher in intermediate age cohorts and in low job protection countries. The potential role of our findings in explaining the heterogeneous behaviour of CBs under different job market settings is discussed and compared with alternative explanations based on other institutional or structural differences in economies and in their reactions to shocks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Downward wage rigidity in Europe: a new flexible parametric approach and empirical results (2010)
Zitatform
Behr, Andreas & Ulrich Pötter (2010): Downward wage rigidity in Europe. A new flexible parametric approach and empirical results. In: German economic review, Jg. 11, H. 2, S. 169-187. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-0475.2009.00470.x
Abstract
"We suggest a new parametric approach to estimate the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in ten European countries between 1995 and 2001. The database used throughout is the User Data Base of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). The proposed approach is based on the generalized hyperbolic distribution, which allows to model wage change distributions characterized by thick tales, skewness and leptokurtosis. Significant downward nominal wage rigidity is found in all countries under analysis, but the extent varies considerably across countries. Yearly estimates reveal increasing rigidity in Italy, Greece and Portugal, while rigidity is declining in Denmark and Belgium. The results imply that the costs of price stability differ substantially across Europe." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Ursachen, Ausmaß und Implikationen von Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit (2010)
Zitatform
Beissinger, Thomas & Heiko Stüber (2010): Ursachen, Ausmaß und Implikationen von Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit. In: U. Blien, W. Flieger & R. Schmitt (Hrsg.) (2010): Ökonomie, Technologie und Region : Voraussetzungen, Formen und Folgen des Strukturwandels. Festschrift für Prof. Dr. Hans-Dieter Feser, S. 259-299.
Abstract
"Die Autoren beschäftigen sich in ihrem Beitrag mit dem Phänomen der Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit, welches bisher vom Strukturwandel weitgehend unberührt geblieben ist. Aufgrund dessen findet sich hierin eine Konstante, die bei Diskussionen um die Folgen des Strukturwandels zu berücksichtigen ist, denn Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit verursacht eine erhöhte Arbeitslosigkeit in niedergehenden Branchen. Der Beitrag gibt einen umfassenden Überblick über die Debatte um Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit und Inflation. Es wird zunächst erläutert, wie aus theoretischer Sicht eine zu niedrige Inflation in Verbindung mit nach unten starren Nominallöhnen die gleichgewichtige Arbeitslosigkeit erhöhen kann. Es wird auf mögliche Begründungen, die Existenz und das Ausmaß, sowie die makroökonomischen Konsequenzen und wirtschaftspolitischen Implikationen eingegangen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities (2010)
Benigno, Pierpaolo; Ricci, Luca Antonio;Zitatform
Benigno, Pierpaolo & Luca Antonio Ricci (2010): The inflation-output trade-off with downward wage rigidities. (NBER working paper 15762), Cambridge, Mass., 40 S. DOI:10.3386/w15762
Abstract
"In the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities, wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices, when facing both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We derive a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve which relates average output gap to average wage inflation: it is virtually vertical at high inflation and flattens at low inflation. Macroeconomic volatility shifts the curve outward and reduces output. The results imply that stabilization policies play an important role, and that optimal inflation may be positive and differ across countries with different macroeconomic volatility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for inflation persistence (2010)
Christoffel, Kai; Linzert, Tobias;Zitatform
Christoffel, Kai & Tobias Linzert (2010): The role of real wage rigidity and labor market frictions for inflation persistence. In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Jg. 42, H. 7, S. 1435-1446. DOI:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00348.x
Abstract
"We analyze the transmission mechanism of wages to inflation within a New Keynesian business cycle model with wage rigidities and labor market frictions. Our main focus is on the channel of real wage rigidities on inflation persistence for which we find the specification of the wage bargaining process to be of crucial importance. Under the standard efficient Nash bargaining, the feedback of wage rigidities on inflation is ambiguous and depends on other labor market variables. However, under the alternative right-to-manage bargaining we find that more rigid wages translate directly into more persistent movements of aggregate inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor contract duration, indexation, and wage adjustment: interdependence and inflation propagation mechanisms (2010)
Christofides, Louis N.; Peng, Amy Chen; Chen Peng, Amy;Zitatform
Christofides, Louis N., Amy Chen Peng & Amy Chen Peng; Amy Chen Peng (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2010): Labor contract duration, indexation, and wage adjustment. Interdependence and inflation propagation mechanisms. In: Industrial relations, Jg. 49, H. 2, S. 226-247. DOI:10.1111/j.1468-232X.2009.00597.x
Abstract
"We study simultaneously the three main outcomes of collective bargaining negotiations, namely indexation, non-indexed wage adjustment, and contract duration. The wage adjustment equation accommodates varying degrees of wage indexation in the current and previous contracts. The elasticity of indexation, a latent variable, deals with both the incidence and intensity of wage indexation and links consistently with the wage equation. Duration, which may change between contracts, is shown to depend on indexed and non-indexed wage adjustment, obviating the need for expected inflation in the empirical duration equations of earlier work. Complex intra- and inter-contract inflation propagation mechanisms involve expected inflation and inflation uncertainty in an essential way. The model accounts for the secular doubling of contract duration and dramatic decrease in indexation and non-contingent wage adjustment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Capital investment and unemployment in Europe: neutrality or not? (2010)
Driver, Ciaran; Muñoz-Bugarin, Jair;Zitatform
Driver, Ciaran & Jair Muñoz-Bugarin (2010): Capital investment and unemployment in Europe. Neutrality or not? In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 32, H. 1, S. 492-496. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2009.03.003
Abstract
"Productivity variables are often said to have no effect on the NAIRU under wage bargaining as the labour share is unaffected when production is characterised by a unit elasticity of substitution. While production functions such as the CES can explain a negative relationship between investment and equilibrium unemployment, the implication then is that the labour share should increase with investment. In this paper we show that for a long sample in the UK, the labour share has decreased with capital investment. For a panel of European countries for which estimation is possible, the same result is obtained." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Employment, inflation and income distribution in an open economy: pricing-to-market in a modified NAIRU model (2010)
Ederer, Stefan;Zitatform
Ederer, Stefan (2010): Employment, inflation and income distribution in an open economy. Pricing-to-market in a modified NAIRU model. (WIFO working papers 360), Wien, 25 S.
Abstract
"The paper modifies a standard NAIRU model by implementing 'Pricing-to-market' as the basic assumption for the price setting behaviour of firms in an open economy. This entirely changes the outcomes of the model: First, inflation in equilibrium is stable at any rate of unemployment; the long-run Phillips curve is horizontal. Second, income distribution varies with the level of employment. Third, supplemented with a demand equation which allows for effects of both income distribution and international competitiveness, the NAIRU ceases to be a 'strong attractor'. These characteristics to a certain extent open up the space for expansive wage and demand policies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Downward wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union (2010)
Fahr, Stephan; Smets, Frank;Zitatform
Fahr, Stephan & Frank Smets (2010): Downward wage rigidities and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union. In: The Scandinavian journal of economics, Jg. 112, H. 4, S. 812-840. DOI:10.1111/j.1467-9442.2010.01627.x
Abstract
"This paper analyses the implications of heterogeneity in the type of downward wage rigidity (nominal or real) for optimal monetary policy in a monetary union with asymmetric wage adjustment costs. Indexation in one region of the union reduces optimal grease inflation in the presence of common productivity shocks. Large common shocks may have sizeable and persistent effects on the intra-union terms of trade, whereby the region characterized by downward real wage rigidity adjusts with a persistent loss of competitiveness. In response to asymmetric productivity shocks, there is no role for grease inflation because relative price changes facilitating the real wage changes dominate the adjustment mechanism." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Nominal and real wage rigidities: in theory and in Europe (2010)
Knell, Markus;Zitatform
Knell, Markus (2010): Nominal and real wage rigidities. In theory and in Europe. (European Central Bank. Working paper series 1180), Frankfurt am Main, 52 S.
Abstract
"In this paper I study the relation between real wage rigidity (RWR) and nominal price and wage rigidity. I show that in a standard DSGE model RWR is mainly affected by the interaction of the two nominal rigidities and not by other structural parameters. The degree of RWR is, however, considerably influenced by the modelling assumption about the structure of wage contracts (Calvo vs. Taylor) and about other institutional characteristics of wage-setting (clustering of contracts, heterogeneous contract length, indexation). I use survey evidence on price- and wage-setting for 15 European countries to calculate the degrees of RWR implied by the theoretical model. The average levels of RWR are broadly in line with empirical estimates based on macroeconomic data. In order to be able to also match the observed cross-country variation in RWR it is, however, essential to move beyond the country-specific durations of price and wages and to take more institutional details into account." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Real price and wage rigidities with matching frictions (2010)
Kuester, Keith;Zitatform
Kuester, Keith (2010): Real price and wage rigidities with matching frictions. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 57, H. 4, S. 466-477. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.04.001
Abstract
"Frictional unemployment means that workers, for some time, are a firm-specific factor of production. This paper models the resulting interaction of wage bargaining and price setting at the firm level in a New Keynesian model with labor market matching frictions. Real rigidities arise and the labor share ceases to be a good proxy for marginal costs. The model replicates the impulse responses of an SVAR for U.S. data better than alternatives in which the real rigidities arising at the firm level are absent. In addition, it implies reasonably low degrees of nominal rigidity whereas the alternatives do not. The interaction of wage and price setting at the firm level is important for the macroeconomic dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market: first results from the Euro experiment (2010)
Zitatform
Merkl, Christian & Tom Schmitz (2010): Macroeconomic volatilities and the labor market. First results from the Euro experiment. (IZA discussion paper 4924), Bonn, 29 S.
Abstract
"This paper analyzes the effects of different labor market institutions on inflation and output volatility. The eurozone offers an unprecedented experiment for this exercise: since 1999, no national monetary policies have been implemented that could account for volatility differences across member states, but labor market characteristics have remained very diverse. We use a New Keynesian model with unemployment to predict the effects of different labor market institutions on macroeconomic volatilities. In our subsequent empirical estimations, we find that higher labor turnover costs have a statistically significant negative effect on output volatility, while replacement rates have a positive effect, both of which are in line with theory. Real wage rigidities do not seem to play much of a role. This result is in line with our employed labor market model, but stands in stark contrast to the search and matching model. While labor market institutions have a large effect on output volatility, they do not seem to have much of an effect on inflation volatility. Our estimations indicate that the latter is driven instead to a certain extent by differences in government spending volatility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The European unemployment gap and the role of monetary policy (2010)
Napolitano, Oreste; Montagnoli, Alberto;Zitatform
Napolitano, Oreste & Alberto Montagnoli (2010): The European unemployment gap and the role of monetary policy. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 30, H. 2, S. 1346-1358.
Abstract
"This study will shed some light on the debate on the impact of monetary policy on the labour market in Europe. The Phillips curve implies that demand-induced changes in inflation tend to lag behind movements in the unemployment rate, which means that a comparison between the actual unemployment rate and the NAIRU may be helpful in forecasting future changes in inflation. By using an unobserved component model with a Kalman filter we estimate the NAIRU for three countries in the euro area. Moreover, using a Markov switching model we investigate whether European monetary policy is responsible for these unemployment gaps and whether the interest rate is transmitted asymmetrically across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2010)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2010): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (FZID discussion papers 2010/22), Hohenheim, 35 S.
Abstract
"Focusing on the compression of wage cuts, many empirical studies find a high degree of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). However, the resulting macroeconomic effects seem to be surprisingly weak. This contradiction can be explained within an intertemporal framework in which DNWR not only prevents nominal wage cuts but also induces firms to compress wage increases. We analyze whether a compression of wage increases occurs when DNWR is binding by applying Unconditional Quantile Regression and Seemingly Unrelated Regression to a data set comprising more than 169 million wage changes. We find evidence for a compression of wage increases and only very small effects of DNWR on average real wage growth. The results indicate that DNWR does not provide a strong argument against low inflation targets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (2010)
Zitatform
Stüber, Heiko & Thomas Beissinger (2010): Does downward nominal wage rigidity dampen wage increases? (IZA discussion paper 5126), Bonn, 32 S.
Abstract
"Viele empirische Studien, die die Komprimierung von Lohnkürzungen betrachteten, finden einen hohen Grad an Abwärtsnominallohnstarrheit (ANLS). Die resultierenden makroökonomischen Effekte scheinen jedoch überraschend gering zu sein. Dieser Widerspruch kann in einem intertemporalen Rahmen erklärt werden, in dem ANLS nicht nur Nominallohnkürzungen verhindert, sondern auch dazu führt, dass Firmen Lohnerhöhungen komprimieren. Wir analysieren mit Hilfe von Unconditional Quantile Regression und Seemingly Unrelated Regression, ob eine Komprimierung von Lohnerhöhungen stattfindet wenn ANLS vorliegt. Der hierfür genutzt Datensatz umfasst mehr als 169 Millionen Lohnänderungen. Wir finden Evidenz für eine Komprimierung von Lohnerhöhungen und nur sehr geringe Effekte von ALNS auf das durchschnittliche Reallohnwachstum. Die Ergebnisse deuten daraufhin, dass ANLS kein starkes Argument gegen die Zielsetzung niedriger Inflationsraten liefert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)