Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
A Theory of How Workers Keep up with Inflation (2026)
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Afrouzi, Hassan, Andrés Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2026): A Theory of How Workers Keep up with Inflation. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjag007
Abstract
"We develop a model that integrates modern theories of labor market flows with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of inflation on the labor market. Nominal wage stickiness incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions after an unexpected increase in the price level. Such dynamics lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower real wages—two facts observed during the recent inflation period. The calibrated model jointly matches aggregate and cross-sectional trends in worker flows and wages during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with increasing vacancies and upward shifts in the Beveridge curve. Our results suggest that policymakers and academics should be cautious about viewing the rise in the vacancy-to-unemployment rate as a sign of a tight labor market during inflationary periods without holistically looking at other labor market indicators." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (2026)
Ambrocio, Gene;Zitatform
Ambrocio, Gene (2026): Demographic aging and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 184. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105273
Abstract
"I document a link between population aging and average markups. I propose a mechanism whereby households develop deep habits in consumption as they age to explain this finding. When this mechanism is embedded in an overlapping generations New Keynesian model, the slope of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve flattens as the population ages. Further, the contractionary effects of positive monetary policy surprises on output are amplified. Evidence from local projections exploiting the Trilemma in international macroeconomics confirm the model predictions. These results suggest that the challenges faced by monetary policy may become more pronounced as populations age." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The flattening of the Phillips Curve in the US was driven by good factors of concentration (2026)
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Andrés, Javier, Óscar Arce & Pablo Burriel (2026): The flattening of the Phillips Curve in the US was driven by good factors of concentration. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 186. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2026.105297
Abstract
"This paper investigates the relationship between the different drivers of market concentration and the flattening of the Phillips curve. First, we derive the impact of market shares polarization on the slope of the Phillips curve. Next we show that this effect is significantly different depending on the ultimate causes of such market concentration. We find that technology and competition-driven concentration exert a strong flattening effect on the Phillips curve, while changes in entry barriers instead increase the slope. Finally, we find that the pronounced flattening of the U.S. Phillips curve before 2000 would be coherent with the increase in good concentration, while the stability or moderate rise in the slope observed over the first decade of the 2000s could be explained by the increase in bad factors of concentration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Einkommenspolitik von Staat und Sozialpartnern in der Krise: Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen der Inflationskrise von 2022 und 2023 (2026)
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Barthel, Georg, Karen Jaehrling & Michel Breuer (2026): Einkommenspolitik von Staat und Sozialpartnern in der Krise. Kurz- und langfristige Auswirkungen der Inflationskrise von 2022 und 2023. (IAQ-Report 2026-01), Duisburg, 22 S. DOI:10.17185/duepublico/84801
Abstract
"Die in den letzten Jahren eingeleiteten Kurskorrekturen zur Aufwertung unterer Lohngruppen und Haushaltseinkommen wurden durch die Inflationskrise massiv auf die Probe gestellt. Die Kaufkraftverluste während der Inflationskrise wurden (Stand Ende 2025) annähernd ausgeglichen. Im Interesse des politischen Kompromisses entlastete die Bundesregierung untere Einkommensgruppen relativ, aber höhere Einkommensgruppen absolut am stärksten. Die Fortsetzung und teilweise Verstärkung der Aufwertung unterer Einkommensgruppen durch staatliche und tarifliche Lohnpolitik führte zu verstärkten Konflikten. Die Konflikte um Tarif-, Steuer- und Sozialpolitik, die in der Inflationskrise manifest oder verstärkt wurden, sind auch in aktuellen Debatten virulent." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments (2026)
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Coibion, Olivier & Yuriy Gorodnichenko (2026): The New Causal Macroeconomics of Surveys and Experiments. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 24, H. 1, S. 58–81. DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvaf050
Abstract
"We discuss how Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) can be used to study the causal effects of expectations on the decisions of households, firms and other economic agents. Specifically, information provision in RCTs can create exogenous variation in the beliefs of survey participants and thus can address a key identification challenge that has plagued research efforts focused on understanding the role of expectations in shaping economic decisions. When linked to either external information on their actions or subsequent survey waves that measure their ex-post decisions, RCTs can provide clear causal identification of the passthrough from expectations to decisions. We review recent evidence using this strategy and discuss potential challenges associated with this approach." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wage growth and labor market tightness (2026)
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Heise, Sebastian, Jeremy Pearce & Jacob P. Weber (2026): Wage growth and labor market tightness. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 158. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103903
Abstract
"Good measures of labor market tightness are essential to predict wage inflation and to calibrate monetary policy. This paper highlights the importance of two measures of labor market tightness in determining wage growth: the quits rate and vacancies per effective searcher (V/ES)—where searchers include both employed and non-employed job seekers. Among a broad set of indicators of labor market tightness, we find that these two measures are independently the most strongly correlated with wage inflation both in aggregate time series data and in industry-level panel data, and also predict wage growth best out of sample. These results are consistent with the predictions of a New Keynesian DSGE model where firms have the power to set wages and workers search on the job. We develop a new composite indicator of labor market tightness that can be used by policymakers to predict wage pressures in real time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Towards a unified labour value theory of inflation (2026)
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Hoca, Bülent (2026): Towards a unified labour value theory of inflation. In: Economy and Society, Jg. 55, H. 1, S. 71-96. DOI:10.1080/03085147.2025.2601465
Abstract
"Amid the resurgence of inflation, persistent austerity measures, and a lingering cost-of-living crisis, the primary aim of this paper is to theoretically exonerate labour from the blame for inflation, a tendency deeply embedded in the mainstream and one that continues to manifest, albeit potentially, within heterodox traditions. We show that achieving this aim requires an alternative Marxian theoretical framework based on the concept of labour value rather than the traditional concepts of cost, income, supply and demand. We identify sufficient textual evidence in Capital III to provide such a theory of price change. Our proposed theoretical framework unifies several factors of inflation, based on the tendency of capitalism to increase productivity and restrain price change, and explains the recent inflationary period by exploring long-term counteracting factors to this tendency." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Inflationsdifferenzen zwischen den Bundesländern (2026)
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Kluth, Ricarda, Robert Lehmann & Marcel Thum (2026): Inflationsdifferenzen zwischen den Bundesländern. In: Ifo Dresden berichtet, Jg. 33, H. 01, S. 09-13.
Abstract
"Die Inflation entwickelt sich innerhalb Deutschlands seit 2020 recht unterschiedlich. Während die Preise in den ostdeutschen Flächenländern und Bremen stärker gestiegen sind als in Deutschland insgesamt, gilt genau das Gegenteil für Schleswig-Holstein und Hamburg. Stellt man der Preis- die nominale Stundenlohnentwicklung gegenüber, zeigen sich vor allem reale Gewinne in Ostdeutschland und reale Verluste für die westdeutschen Bundesländer. Falls diese Unterschiede persistent sind, könnte dies auf Dauer die relativen Lebensstandards zwischen den Bundesländern beeinflussen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Inflation versus unemployment: what is strongly associated with U.S. consumer confidence over time? (2026)
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Ogunyiola, Elizabeth Yemi, Olorunfemi Gabriel Ogunyiola & Ayorinde Ogunyiola (2026): Inflation versus unemployment: what is strongly associated with U.S. consumer confidence over time? In: Applied Economics Letters, S. 1-12. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2026.2618600
Abstract
"We examine whether inflation or unemployment is strongly associated with U.S. consumer confidence and how these associations vary across different macroeconomic regimes. Using monthly data from January 2000 to May 2025, we estimate Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models with regime-specific interactions, comparing headline inflation, core inflation, and inflation expectations with unemployment. The results show regime-dependent association patterns: core inflation became positively associated with confidence during the 2008–2009 financial crisis as falling prices coincided with weak sentiment, while unemployment exhibited relatively weak associations until becoming more pronounced during the post-pandemic adjustment of 2024–2025. In contrast, inflation expectations consistently showed strong negative associations with consumer confidence, particularly during the high-inflation period of 2022–2023. These findings indicate that the relative strength of the association between consumer confidence and key macroeconomic indicators varies across economic regimes, suggesting that policymakers should tailor communication and stabilization strategies to prevailing economic conditions while remaining attentive to changes in expectations and labour-market perceptions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Inflation, unemployment, and institutional trust: the global evidence (2026)
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Popova, Olga, Milena Nikolova, Sarah Grace See & Vladimir Otrachshenko (2026): Inflation, unemployment, and institutional trust: the global evidence. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 78, H. 1, S. 157-178. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpaf026
Abstract
"How do macroeconomic conditions shape people’s trust in political institutions? This paper addresses this question by analysing the association between inflation, unemployment, and political trust using repeated cross-sectional data from over 2 million individuals across 148 countries between 2006 and 2023. We find that high unemployment is strongly and consistently linked to lower confidence in national governments and reduced approval of national leaders. In contrast, the influence of inflation is substantially smaller—typically four to eight times weaker—and less robust across specifications. Perceptions of national economic performance, personal financial insecurity, and corruption appear to be key channels underlying these relationships. While inflation is linked to lower political trust mostly in upper-middle- and high-income countries, the negative association between unemployment and trust is widespread across all income levels. These findings suggest that unemployment remains a global and salient challenge that governments should prioritize." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves (2025)
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Ahn, Hie Joo & Jeremy B. Rudd (2025): (Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 153. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796
Abstract
"We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation (2025)
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Almuzara, Martín, Richard Audoly & Davide Melcangi (2025): A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Jg. 40, H. 5, S. 508-520. DOI:10.1002/jae.3126
Abstract
"We extend time-series models that have so far been used to study price inflation and apply them to a microlevel data set containing worker-level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co-moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real-time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions (2025)
Angyridis, Constantine; Mansoorian, Arman; Michelis, Leo;Zitatform
Angyridis, Constantine, Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis (2025): On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678
Abstract
"This paper examines the costs associated with the level and variability of inflation in the context of a general equilibrium (GE) welfare measure which accounts for the optimal adjustments of all the endogenous variables in the model in response to the transfers received by the households. We compare and contrast the GE welfare costs with the conventional consumption equivalent (CE) measure across three utility functions that have been used routinely in the macroeconomics literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Robot adoption and inflation dynamics (2025)
Basso, Henrique S.; Rachedi, Omar;Zitatform
Basso, Henrique S. & Omar Rachedi (2025): Robot adoption and inflation dynamics. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 156. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103856
Abstract
"Leveraging variation in robot adoption across U.S. metropolitan areas, we document that automation reduces the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment. To rationalize this finding, we build a New Keynesian model with search frictions in the labor market where robot adoption flattens the Phillips curve. The key channel is the option value of automation: the threat of automating labor tasks alters effective workers’ bargaining power, muting the wage sensitivity to unemployment. We validate the relevance of this channel in the data by showing that robot adoption reduces the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment relatively more in highly unionized metropolitan areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Role of Labour Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission (2025)
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Boeck, Maximilian & Christian Glocker (2025): The Role of Labour Market Institutions in Shaping Euro Area Monetary Policy Transmission. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, S. 1-18. DOI:10.1111/obes.70029
Abstract
"We examine how labour market institutions shape monetary policy transmission in euro area countries. A theoretical model suggests that higher union density flattens the Phillips curve, amplifying output responses while dampening the inflation effects of monetary shocks. This is empirically confirmed using an interacted panel VAR. In contrast, benefit replacement rates and employment protection legislation have a limited impact. Our findings point to a structural, not cyclical, driver of monetary policy effectiveness, highlighting the importance of labour market features. In a monetary union, such heterogeneity can lead to inefficient inflation and output differentials across member states." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations (2025)
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Buchheim, Lukas, Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle (2025): The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations. In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 115, S. 261-265. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20251018
Abstract
"Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel survey data from German firms. By comparing forecast errors for firms' own wage inflation and consumer price index inflation, we show that wage forecasts tend to be more accurate, and forecast errors for the two variables are positively correlated. Moreover, the analysis reveals that various firm characteristics and wage-setting factors, particularly collective bargaining agreements, predict the forecast accuracy of wage inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments (2025)
Conrad, Christian A.;Zitatform
Conrad, Christian A. (2025): Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments. In: International journal of financial research, Jg. 16, H. 1, S. 20-34. DOI:10.5430/ijfr.v16n1p20
Abstract
"This paper examines the effects of inflation on both worker and employers wage bargaining on the labor market and the impact on distribution and economic development through two behavioral experiments. The findings of experiment A support the wage lag hypothesis, indicating that inflation alters the distribution, favoring companies while disadvantaging workers. Later workers then enforced higher wages, which overcompensated the expansionary effect, why expansive monetary policy which result in inflation is likely to be ineffective over the long term, detrimental and unfair. Experiment B explored how workers respond to inflation in wage demands and found that they do not act rationally. Instead, there were perception thresholds, showing that wage adjustments happen first disproportionally in reaction to inflation and then abrupt. This challenges the rationality assumption in DSGE-models." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach (2025)
Zitatform
Eusepi, Stefano & Ayşegül Şahin (2025): Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33878), Cambridge, Mass, 68 S.
Abstract
"The Federal Reserve's dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We propose a flow-based framework to evaluate real-time shortfalls from maximum employment, focusing on unemployment and participation cycles. This approach highlights that employment stability—driven by improved job-finding and reduced job-loss rates—is the primary factor behind procyclicality of participation, rather than labor force entry. Moreover, we show that cyclical recoveries in participation are bound to lag those in unemployment—even during fast recoveries. We link unemployment dynamics to price stability by estimating a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) using data on labor market flows, prices, wages, and inflation expectations. Our findings suggest that the natural rate of unemployment, u*, rose significantly following the pandemic, reflecting declines in job-filling rates, reduced matching efficiency, and a persistent increase in workers' real reservation wages. The model interprets the recent disinflation episode as a soft landing through rising expectations of a weaker labor market coinciding with the FOMC's tightening cycle. This observation emphasizes the forward-looking nature of inflation dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation (2025)
Zitatform
Faccini, Renato & Leonardo Melosi (2025): Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 107, H. 4, S. 1027-1041. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_01312
Abstract
"The low rate of inflation observed in the United States over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm-wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm-wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent drop is corroborated by survey data. During “the great resignation,” interfirm-wage competition rose, increasing inflation by around 1 percentage point in 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © MIT Press Journals) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy (2025)
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Florio, Anna, Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago (2025): Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 174. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966
Abstract
"This paper studies how participation and position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect the slope of the Phillips Curve (PC) and, consequently, the ability of monetary policy to control inflation. Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and value added measures of GVCs, we show that, beyond the role of trade openness, higher participation leads to a flatter PC. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical literature emphasizing how globalization can reduce the sensitivity of prices to unemployment due to stronger strategic complementarities, to higher market power and to imperfect exchange rate pass-through. On the other hand, the role of GVC position is not statistically significant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Publishedby Elsevier B.V.) ((en))