Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
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Literaturhinweis
A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation (2025)
Zitatform
Almuzara, Martín, Richard Audoly & Davide Melcangi (2025): A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 1-13. DOI:10.1002/jae.3126
Abstract
"We extend time-series models that have so far been used to study price inflation and apply them to a microlevel data set containing worker-level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co-moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real-time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions (2025)
Angyridis, Constantine; Mansoorian, Arman; Michelis, Leo;Zitatform
Angyridis, Constantine, Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis (2025): On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions. In: Journal of macroeconomics. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678
Abstract
"This paper examines the costs associated with the level and variability of inflation in the context of a general equilibrium (GE) welfare measure which accounts for the optimal adjustments of all the endogenous variables in the model in response to the transfers received by the households. We compare and contrast the GE welfare costs with the conventional consumption equivalent (CE) measure across three utility functions that have been used routinely in the macroeconomics literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations (2025)
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Buchheim, Lukas, Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle (2025): The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations. In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 115, S. 261-265. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20251018
Abstract
"Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel survey data from German firms. By comparing forecast errors for firms' own wage inflation and consumer price index inflation, we show that wage forecasts tend to be more accurate, and forecast errors for the two variables are positively correlated. Moreover, the analysis reveals that various firm characteristics and wage-setting factors, particularly collective bargaining agreements, predict the forecast accuracy of wage inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments (2025)
Conrad, Christian A.;Zitatform
Conrad, Christian A. (2025): Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments. In: International journal of financial research, Jg. 16, H. 1, S. 20-34. DOI:10.5430/ijfr.v16n1p20
Abstract
"This paper examines the effects of inflation on both worker and employers wage bargaining on the labor market and the impact on distribution and economic development through two behavioral experiments. The findings of experiment A support the wage lag hypothesis, indicating that inflation alters the distribution, favoring companies while disadvantaging workers. Later workers then enforced higher wages, which overcompensated the expansionary effect, why expansive monetary policy which result in inflation is likely to be ineffective over the long term, detrimental and unfair. Experiment B explored how workers respond to inflation in wage demands and found that they do not act rationally. Instead, there were perception thresholds, showing that wage adjustments happen first disproportionally in reaction to inflation and then abrupt. This challenges the rationality assumption in DSGE-models." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach (2025)
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Eusepi, Stefano & Ayşegül Şahin (2025): Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33878), Cambridge, Mass, 68 S.
Abstract
"The Federal Reserve's dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We propose a flow-based framework to evaluate real-time shortfalls from maximum employment, focusing on unemployment and participation cycles. This approach highlights that employment stability—driven by improved job-finding and reduced job-loss rates—is the primary factor behind procyclicality of participation, rather than labor force entry. Moreover, we show that cyclical recoveries in participation are bound to lag those in unemployment—even during fast recoveries. We link unemployment dynamics to price stability by estimating a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) using data on labor market flows, prices, wages, and inflation expectations. Our findings suggest that the natural rate of unemployment, u*, rose significantly following the pandemic, reflecting declines in job-filling rates, reduced matching efficiency, and a persistent increase in workers' real reservation wages. The model interprets the recent disinflation episode as a soft landing through rising expectations of a weaker labor market coinciding with the FOMC's tightening cycle. This observation emphasizes the forward-looking nature of inflation dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy (2025)
Zitatform
Florio, Anna, Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago (2025): Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 174. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966
Abstract
"This paper studies how participation and position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect the slope of the Phillips Curve (PC) and, consequently, the ability of monetary policy to control inflation. Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and value added measures of GVCs, we show that, beyond the role of trade openness, higher participation leads to a flatter PC. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical literature emphasizing how globalization can reduce the sensitivity of prices to unemployment due to stronger strategic complementarities, to higher market power and to imperfect exchange rate pass-through. On the other hand, the role of GVC position is not statistically significant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Publishedby Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy (2025)
Zitatform
Gnocato, Nicolò (2025): Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy. In: Journal of monetary economics. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734
Abstract
"Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euro-area Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in production and a non-homothetic consumption good. Unemployment forces workers to consume less due to imperfect insurance and, since preferences are non-homothetic, to allocate a larger consumption share to energy. The heterogeneous exposure of the labor force to rising energy prices induces an endogenous trade-off for monetary policy: the optimal response involves partly accommodating inflation to limit the increase in unemployment and, hence, prevent workers from becoming more exposed to the shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? (2025)
Zitatform
Hack, Lukas & Davud Rostam-Afschar (2025): Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17935), Bonn, 60 S.
Abstract
"We examine how macroeconomic news affects firms' extensive-margin price-setting plans in a survey that we rolled out with randomized daily invitations. These plans predict future realized inflation. Using a high-frequency event study framework, we find that inflation and employment surprises imply significant and sizable revisions in firms' pricing plans. There is a limited role for news about the trade balance, but no significant role for other commonly studied data releases, e.g., industrial production. We also study news coverage and agents' news search behavior, finding that the intensive-margin response of media coverage and news search may partly drive our main results." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge (2025)
Zitatform
Hohberger, Stefan (2025): Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge. In: International economics and economic policy, Jg. 22. DOI:10.1007/s10368-024-00651-7
Abstract
"This paper estimates a three-region macroeconomic model to analyse the key drivers of Germany’s GDP, inflation, and wage growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation surge. Incorporating COVID-related demand and supply shocks, trade in commodities, and endogenous ELB periods, the results highlight that (i) the 2020–2021 downturn was primarily driven by domestic and global lockdown shocks, (ii) the 2021–2022 inflation surge resulted from rising commodity prices, recovering global demand, and supply-side pressures, and (iii) wage growth per hour was shaped by opposing demand and supply forces. The model’s estimated shocks closely align with external indicators, supporting its empirical plausibility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
State-Dependent Phillips Curve (2025)
Zitatform
Kim, Hyun Hak & Na Kyeong Lee (2025): State-Dependent Phillips Curve. In: Economies, Jg. 13, H. 1. DOI:10.3390/economies13010014
Abstract
"We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work strongly during recessionary periods but becomes weaker once an economy recovers. The latent factors that determine the regimes are highly correlated with the uncertainty measure. During recessionary periods, the uncertainty becomes negatively more certain and strengthens the relationship between inflation and labor market slack." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data (2025)
Zitatform
Smith, Simon C., Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright (2025): Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 131-148. DOI:10.1002/jae.3102
Abstract
"We revisit the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with structural breaks to US and EU disaggregate data. Our approach lets us estimate both the number and timing of breaks and to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns. We find evidence of a flattening for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Evidence of flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and the wage Phillips curve. We find evidence of a kink in the Phillips curve, which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
IMK Inflationsmonitor: Inflation fällt im März 2025 auf 2,2 %, auch Kernrate sinkt weiter (2025)
Tober, Silke;Zitatform
Tober, Silke (2025): IMK Inflationsmonitor. Inflation fällt im März 2025 auf 2,2 %, auch Kernrate sinkt weiter. (IMK policy brief / Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 190), Düsseldorf, 12 S.
Abstract
"Mit 2,2 % lag die Inflationsrate in Deutschland im März 2025 sehr nah am Inflationsziel der EZB und etwas niedriger als im Vormonat (2,3 %). Dabei zogen die Preise für Nahrungsmittel, Alkohol und Tabakwaren verstärkt an (3,3 % nach 2,9 % im Februar 2025), während die Preise für Energie mit 2,8 % stärker zurückgingen als in den drei Monaten zuvor (jeweils 1,6 %) und die Kernrate sich um 0,1 Prozentpunkte auf 2,5 % verringerte. Auch der Anstieg des für die EZB besonders relevanten harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex (HVPI) schwächte sich ab, und zwar um 0,3 Prozentpunkte auf 2,3 %. Dabei war der Rückgang der Energiepreise mit 2,6 % etwas geringer als im VPI, während sich die Kernrate um 0,3 Prozentpunkte auf 2,8 % verringerte. Die Inflationsraten der neun hier betrachteten Haushaltstypen in verschiedenen Einkommensklassen lagen im März 2025 zwischen 1,7 % und 2,0 %. Die Spanne der haushaltsspezifischen Inflationsraten war damit auf einem niedrigen Niveau. Die Inflation dürfte sich im Jahresverlauf weiter normalisieren und sowohl in Deutschland als auch im Euroraum nahe 2 % liegen. Allerdings sind die Abwärtsrisiken für die Inflation durch den sich verschärfenden internationalen Zollkonflikt gestiegen. Die EZB muss auf die deutlich gestiegene Gefahr einer globalen Rezession und die erhöhten Risiken für die Finanzmarktstabilität reagieren. Bereits vor dem Zollkonflikt waren weitere Zinssenkungen erforderlich, weil die Geldpolitik trotz der anhaltenden Wirtschaftsschwäche noch restriktiv ausgerichtet ist. Nun ist eine geldpolitische Lockerung umso dringlicher, damit Geld- und Fiskalpolitik gemeinsam die Binnennachfrage stärken und ein günstiges Umfeld für Investitionen schaffen können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation (2024)
Zitatform
Afrouzi, Hassan, Andrés Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2024): A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33233), Cambridge, Mass, 58 S.
Abstract
"In this paper, we develop a model that combines elements of modern macro labor theories with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages. Calibrating with pre-2020 data, we show the model can simultaneously match the trends in worker flows and wage changes during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Finally, we show that other “hot labor market” theories that can cause an increase in the aggregate vacancy-to-unemployment rate have implications that are inconsistent with the worker flows and wage dynamics observed during the recent inflationary period. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States, all else equal, reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason why workers report they dislike inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation (2024)
Zitatform
Ahn, Hie Joo, HAN CHEN & MICHAEL KISTER (2024): A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. DOI:10.1111/jmcb.13217
Abstract
"We develop a new indicator of common wage inflation (CWI) by extracting and aggregating the common components from detailed industry-level nominal wage data. We show that the CWI is better aligned with the unemployment rate gap for the post-Great Recession period than are other indicators of wage inflation. The CWI indicates a tighter economy than popularly cited wage measures during the expansion after the Great Recession, and the industry-specific factors largely account for the subdued wage growth despite the continued tightening in the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics (2024)
Zitatform
Baldi, M. M., M. Guzowska & E. Michetti (2024): A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics. In: Decisions in economics and finance. DOI:10.1007/s10203-024-00491-9
Abstract
"The Goodwin model is a widely used economic growth model able to explain endogenous fluctuations in employment rate and wage share; in its initial version, the standard Phillips curve is used. In the present work, we suggest a revised Phillips curve that takes into account how the wage share influences the rate of changes of the wage itself thus obtaining a continuous-time modified Goodwin model. Since applying models to real data often requires working in a discrete-time setup, we then move from the continuous-time to the discrete-time version of the proposed model, by using a general polynomial discretization method in backward and forward-looking (hybrid discretization). By comparing the continuous-time system to its discrete-time counterpart we prove that fixed points and local dynamics do not change, as long as the time step is not too high. Moreover, numerical simulations employing Dynamic Time Warping, cross-correlation, and semblance analysis consistently affirm that enhancing the similarity of quantitative dynamics is achieved by reducing the time step." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Licht und Schatten der deutschen Konjunktur: IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2024 (2024)
Bardt, Hubertus ; Seele, Stefanie; Demary, Markus; Grömling, Michael; Obst, Thomas; Schaefer, Thilo; Pimpertz, Jochen; Hentze, Tobias; Schäfer, Holger; Henger, Ralph;Zitatform
Bardt, Hubertus, Markus Demary, Michael Grömling, Ralph Henger, Tobias Hentze, Thomas Obst, Jochen Pimpertz, Thilo Schaefer, Holger Schäfer & Stefanie Seele (2024): Licht und Schatten der deutschen Konjunktur: IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2024. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2024,68), Köln, 4 S.
Abstract
"Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 allenfalls das Vorjahresvolumen erreichen. Dabei gibt es moderate Zuwächse beim Konsum, da sich die Inflationsrate bei gut 2 Prozent normalisiert. Dem stehen starke Rückgänge bei den Investitionen gegenüber. Der Außenhandel leidet unter der schwachen Weltwirtschaft. Positive Wirtschaftsimpulse aus dem Dienstleistungssektor verhindern eine schwere Rezession in Deutschland, denn in der Industrie und der Bauwirtschaft sind deutliche Rückgänge zu sehen. Die Beschäftigung wird in diesem Jahr im Dienstleistungssektor ansteigen, zugleich nimmt aber auch die Arbeitslosigkeit auf 6 Prozent zu." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts (2024)
Zitatform
Barlevy, Gadi, R. Jason Faberman, Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin (2024): The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 38, H. 2, S. 83-106. DOI:10.1257/jep.38.2.83
Abstract
"We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Juni 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Juni 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 28.06.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240628.01
Abstract
"Im ersten Quartal 2024 wuchs die deutsche Wirtschaft preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,2 Prozent, nachdem sie im Schlussquartal 2023 um (revidiert) 0,5 Prozent geschrumpft war. Die Erholung dürfte sich auch im zweiten Quartal nur langsam fortsetzen. Die Inflation hält sich hartnäckig über der Zwei-Prozent-Marke, der Konsum entwickelt sich zurückhaltend und auch die Konjunkturaussichten hellen sich diesen Monat nicht weiter auf. Die Situation am Arbeitsmarkt ist unverändert: Die Beschäftigung steigt leicht, die Arbeitslosigkeit auch." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Februar 2024 (2024)
Zitatform
Bauer, Anja & Enzo Weber (2024): Einschätzung des IAB zur wirtschaftlichen Lage - Februar 2024. In: IAB-Forum H. 29.02.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240229.01
Abstract
"Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ist im vierten Quartal preis-, saison- und kalenderbereinigt um 0,3 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorquartal zurückgegangen. Die rückläufigen Investitionen und der angeschlagene Außenhandel bremsten die Konjunktur. Der Konsum konnte etwas zulegen und der Arbeitsmarkt zeigte sich weiterhin robust. Die Einschätzungen zur gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lage bleiben am aktuellen Rand getrübt, während sich die Erwartungen an die Zukunft aufhellen. Die konjunkturelle Erholung dürfte sich daher weiter verzögern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
IAB-Prognose 2024: Die Beschäftigung steigt, aber die Arbeitslosigkeit auch (2024)
Bauer, Anja ; Gartner, Hermann ; Wanger, Susanne ; Hellwagner, Timon ; Zika, Gerd ; Hummel, Markus; Hutter, Christian ; Weber, Enzo ;Zitatform
Bauer, Anja, Hermann Gartner, Timon Hellwagner, Markus Hummel, Christian Hutter, Susanne Wanger, Enzo Weber & Gerd Zika (2024): IAB-Prognose 2024: Die Beschäftigung steigt, aber die Arbeitslosigkeit auch. (IAB-Kurzbericht 06/2024), Nürnberg, 12 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2406
Abstract
"Das hohe Preis- und Zinsniveau sowie eine schwache Auslandsnachfrage haben die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gedämpft. Der Arbeitsmarkt wurde dadurch zwar beeinträchtigt, aber angesichts der schwachen Konjunktur hält er sich vergleichsweise gut. Der Kurzbericht gibt einen Ausblick auf die Entwicklung im Jahr 2024." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Gartner, Hermann ; Wanger, Susanne ; Hellwagner, Timon ; Zika, Gerd ; Hummel, Markus; Hutter, Christian ; Weber, Enzo ;