Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung
Im September 2022 war die Teuerungsrate mit zehn Prozent erstmal seit den Nachkriegszeiten zweistellig. Gefährden die aufgrund der Energiekrise verursachten Preiserhöhungen den Lebensstandard und die Arbeitsplätze? Welche Auswirkungen hat die steigende Inflationsrate auf die Entwicklung des Arbeitsangebots, der Arbeitsnachfrage und der Löhne? Die Infoplattform stellt Studien und deren Ergebnisse zu den volkswirtschaftlichen Wechselwirkungen zwischen Inflation und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung zusammen.
Zurück zur Übersicht-
Literaturhinweis
(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves (2025)
Zitatform
Ahn, Hie Joo & Jeremy B. Rudd (2025): (Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 153. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103796
Abstract
"We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of each shock and also allows us to estimate the Phillips correlation associated with each shock; observed Beveridge and Phillips correlations change over time depending on what types of structural shocks predominate in a given period. We find that reallocation shocks that accompany job losses were a key source of labor market dynamics and the steepening of the reduced-form Phillips curve during the Covid-19 pandemic, and were an important driver of the post-pandemic “soft landing.”" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation (2025)
Zitatform
Almuzara, Martín, Richard Audoly & Davide Melcangi (2025): A Measure of Trend Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, S. 1-13. DOI:10.1002/jae.3126
Abstract
"We extend time-series models that have so far been used to study price inflation and apply them to a microlevel data set containing worker-level information on hourly wages. We construct a measure of aggregate nominal wage growth that (i) filters out noise and very transitory movements, (ii) quantifies the importance of idiosyncratic factors for aggregate wage dynamics, and (iii) strongly co-moves with labor market tightness, unlike existing indicators of wage inflation. We show that our measure is a reliable real-time indicator of wage pressures and a good predictor of future wage growth." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions (2025)
Angyridis, Constantine; Mansoorian, Arman; Michelis, Leo;Zitatform
Angyridis, Constantine, Arman Mansoorian & Leo Michelis (2025): On the costs of inflation with a general equilibrium welfare measure and alternative utility functions. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2025.103678
Abstract
"This paper examines the costs associated with the level and variability of inflation in the context of a general equilibrium (GE) welfare measure which accounts for the optimal adjustments of all the endogenous variables in the model in response to the transfers received by the households. We compare and contrast the GE welfare costs with the conventional consumption equivalent (CE) measure across three utility functions that have been used routinely in the macroeconomics literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier Inc. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations (2025)
Zitatform
Buchheim, Lukas, Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle (2025): The Accuracy of Firms’ Wage Inflation Expectations. In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 115, S. 261-265. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20251018
Abstract
"Much of recent survey-based macroeconomic research studies firms' aggregate price inflation expectations, but little is known about their expectations of own wage inflation. This paper examines the accuracy of wage inflation expectations using novel panel survey data from German firms. By comparing forecast errors for firms' own wage inflation and consumer price index inflation, we show that wage forecasts tend to be more accurate, and forecast errors for the two variables are positively correlated. Moreover, the analysis reveals that various firm characteristics and wage-setting factors, particularly collective bargaining agreements, predict the forecast accuracy of wage inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments (2025)
Conrad, Christian A.;Zitatform
Conrad, Christian A. (2025): Wage Bargaining and Inflation: Perception Thresholds in the Labor Market and the Impact on Distribution and Economic Development – Evidence From Two Behavioral Experiments. In: International journal of financial research, Jg. 16, H. 1, S. 20-34. DOI:10.5430/ijfr.v16n1p20
Abstract
"This paper examines the effects of inflation on both worker and employers wage bargaining on the labor market and the impact on distribution and economic development through two behavioral experiments. The findings of experiment A support the wage lag hypothesis, indicating that inflation alters the distribution, favoring companies while disadvantaging workers. Later workers then enforced higher wages, which overcompensated the expansionary effect, why expansive monetary policy which result in inflation is likely to be ineffective over the long term, detrimental and unfair. Experiment B explored how workers respond to inflation in wage demands and found that they do not act rationally. Instead, there were perception thresholds, showing that wage adjustments happen first disproportionally in reaction to inflation and then abrupt. This challenges the rationality assumption in DSGE-models." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach (2025)
Zitatform
Eusepi, Stefano & Ayşegül Şahin (2025): Assessing Maximum Employment: A Flow-Based Approach. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33878), Cambridge, Mass, 68 S.
Abstract
"The Federal Reserve's dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We propose a flow-based framework to evaluate real-time shortfalls from maximum employment, focusing on unemployment and participation cycles. This approach highlights that employment stability—driven by improved job-finding and reduced job-loss rates—is the primary factor behind procyclicality of participation, rather than labor force entry. Moreover, we show that cyclical recoveries in participation are bound to lag those in unemployment—even during fast recoveries. We link unemployment dynamics to price stability by estimating a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) using data on labor market flows, prices, wages, and inflation expectations. Our findings suggest that the natural rate of unemployment, u*, rose significantly following the pandemic, reflecting declines in job-filling rates, reduced matching efficiency, and a persistent increase in workers' real reservation wages. The model interprets the recent disinflation episode as a soft landing through rising expectations of a weaker labor market coinciding with the FOMC's tightening cycle. This observation emphasizes the forward-looking nature of inflation dynamics." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation (2025)
Zitatform
Faccini, Renato & Leonardo Melosi (2025): Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 107, H. 4, S. 1027-1041. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_01312
Abstract
"The low rate of inflation observed in the United States over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm-wage competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of interfirm-wage competition to retain or hire workers. We estimate the on-the-job search rate from aggregate labor-market flows and show that its recent drop is corroborated by survey data. During “the great resignation,” interfirm-wage competition rose, increasing inflation by around 1 percentage point in 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © MIT Press Journals) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy (2025)
Zitatform
Florio, Anna, Daniele Siena & Riccardo Zago (2025): Global value chains and the Phillips curve: A challenge for monetary policy. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 174. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104966
Abstract
"This paper studies how participation and position in Global Value Chains (GVCs) affect the slope of the Phillips Curve (PC) and, consequently, the ability of monetary policy to control inflation. Using data from the European Monetary Union (EMU) and value added measures of GVCs, we show that, beyond the role of trade openness, higher participation leads to a flatter PC. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical literature emphasizing how globalization can reduce the sensitivity of prices to unemployment due to stronger strategic complementarities, to higher market power and to imperfect exchange rate pass-through. On the other hand, the role of GVC position is not statistically significant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Publishedby Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy (2025)
Zitatform
Gnocato, Nicolò (2025): Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy. In: Journal of monetary economics, Jg. 151. DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103734
Abstract
"Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euro-area Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in production and a non-homothetic consumption good. Unemployment forces workers to consume less due to imperfect insurance and, since preferences are non-homothetic, to allocate a larger consumption share to energy. The heterogeneous exposure of the labor force to rising energy prices induces an endogenous trade-off for monetary policy: the optimal response involves partly accommodating inflation to limit the increase in unemployment and, hence, prevent workers from becoming more exposed to the shock." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap (2025)
GouletCoulombe, Philippe;Zitatform
GouletCoulombe, Philippe (2025): A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap. In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Jg. 43, H. 3, S. 669-683. DOI:10.1080/07350015.2024.2421279
Abstract
"Many problems plague empirical Phillips curves (PCs). Among them is the hurdle that the two key components, inflation expectations and the output gap, are both unobserved. Traditional remedies include proxying for the absentees or extracting them via assumptions-heavy filtering procedures. I propose an alternative route: a Hemisphere Neural Network (HNN) whose architecture yields a final layer where components can be interpreted as latent states within a Neural PC. First, HNN conducts the supervised estimation of nonlinearities that arise when translating a high-dimensional set of observed regressors into latent states. Second, forecasts are economically interpretable. Among other findings, the contribution of real activity to inflation appears understated in traditional PCs. In contrast, HNN captures the 2021 upswing in inflation and attributes it to a large positive output gap starting from late 2020. The unique path of HNN’s gap comes from dispensing with unemployment and GDP in favor of an amalgam of nonlinearly processed alternative tightness indicators." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? (2025)
Zitatform
Hack, Lukas & Davud Rostam-Afschar (2025): Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting? (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 17935), Bonn, 60 S.
Abstract
"We examine how macroeconomic news affects firms' extensive-margin price-setting plans in a survey that we rolled out with randomized daily invitations. These plans predict future realized inflation. Using a high-frequency event study framework, we find that inflation and employment surprises imply significant and sizable revisions in firms' pricing plans. There is a limited role for news about the trade balance, but no significant role for other commonly studied data releases, e.g., industrial production. We also study news coverage and agents' news search behavior, finding that the intensive-margin response of media coverage and news search may partly drive our main results." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge (2025)
Zitatform
Hohberger, Stefan (2025): Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge. In: International economics and economic policy, Jg. 22. DOI:10.1007/s10368-024-00651-7
Abstract
"This paper estimates a three-region macroeconomic model to analyse the key drivers of Germany’s GDP, inflation, and wage growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation surge. Incorporating COVID-related demand and supply shocks, trade in commodities, and endogenous ELB periods, the results highlight that (i) the 2020–2021 downturn was primarily driven by domestic and global lockdown shocks, (ii) the 2021–2022 inflation surge resulted from rising commodity prices, recovering global demand, and supply-side pressures, and (iii) wage growth per hour was shaped by opposing demand and supply forces. The model’s estimated shocks closely align with external indicators, supporting its empirical plausibility." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Anchored inflation expectations and the slope of the phillips curve (2025)
Jørgensen, Peter Lihn; Lansing, Kevin J.;Zitatform
Jørgensen, Peter Lihn & Kevin J. Lansing (2025): Anchored inflation expectations and the slope of the phillips curve. In: European Economic Review. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105073
Abstract
"It is conventional wisdom that the reduced form Phillips curve has become flatter in recent decades. Accordingly, we show that the statistical relationship between changes in U.S. inflation and economic activity, commonly known as the accelerationist Phillips curve, has become flatter. But in contrast, the statistical relationship between the level of inflation and economic activity, which we refer to as the “original” Phillips curve, has become steeper. By allowing for changes in the degree of anchoring of agents’ inflation forecasts, we recover a stable structural slope parameter in an estimated version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) from 1960 to 2019. Using a New Keynesian model with imperfect information, we show that imperfectly anchored inflation expectations, coupled with an inflation-targeting central bank, induce an upward bias in the slope of the accelerationist Phillips curve slope but a downward bias in the slope of the original Phillips curve relative to the true structural slope of the NKPC. Improved anchoring shrinks both biases, accounting for the observed changes in the slopes of the reduced form Phillips curve relationships." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
State-Dependent Phillips Curve (2025)
Zitatform
Kim, Hyun Hak & Na Kyeong Lee (2025): State-Dependent Phillips Curve. In: Economies, Jg. 13, H. 1. DOI:10.3390/economies13010014
Abstract
"We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work strongly during recessionary periods but becomes weaker once an economy recovers. The latent factors that determine the regimes are highly correlated with the uncertainty measure. During recessionary periods, the uncertainty becomes negatively more certain and strengthens the relationship between inflation and labor market slack." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data (2025)
Zitatform
Smith, Simon C., Allan Timmermann & Jonathan H. Wright (2025): Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence From Panel Data. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 131-148. DOI:10.1002/jae.3102
Abstract
"We revisit the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with structural breaks to US and EU disaggregate data. Our approach lets us estimate both the number and timing of breaks and to determine the existence of clusters of industries, cities, or countries whose Phillips curves display similar patterns. We find evidence of a flattening for US sectoral data and among EU countries, particularly poorer ones. Evidence of flattening is weaker for MSA-level data and the wage Phillips curve. We find evidence of a kink in the Phillips curve, which remains relatively steep when the economy is running hot." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
IMK Inflationsmonitor: Inflation fällt im März 2025 auf 2,2 %, auch Kernrate sinkt weiter (2025)
Tober, Silke;Zitatform
Tober, Silke (2025): IMK Inflationsmonitor. Inflation fällt im März 2025 auf 2,2 %, auch Kernrate sinkt weiter. (IMK policy brief / Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 190), Düsseldorf, 12 S.
Abstract
"Mit 2,2 % lag die Inflationsrate in Deutschland im März 2025 sehr nah am Inflationsziel der EZB und etwas niedriger als im Vormonat (2,3 %). Dabei zogen die Preise für Nahrungsmittel, Alkohol und Tabakwaren verstärkt an (3,3 % nach 2,9 % im Februar 2025), während die Preise für Energie mit 2,8 % stärker zurückgingen als in den drei Monaten zuvor (jeweils 1,6 %) und die Kernrate sich um 0,1 Prozentpunkte auf 2,5 % verringerte. Auch der Anstieg des für die EZB besonders relevanten harmonisierten Verbraucherpreisindex (HVPI) schwächte sich ab, und zwar um 0,3 Prozentpunkte auf 2,3 %. Dabei war der Rückgang der Energiepreise mit 2,6 % etwas geringer als im VPI, während sich die Kernrate um 0,3 Prozentpunkte auf 2,8 % verringerte. Die Inflationsraten der neun hier betrachteten Haushaltstypen in verschiedenen Einkommensklassen lagen im März 2025 zwischen 1,7 % und 2,0 %. Die Spanne der haushaltsspezifischen Inflationsraten war damit auf einem niedrigen Niveau. Die Inflation dürfte sich im Jahresverlauf weiter normalisieren und sowohl in Deutschland als auch im Euroraum nahe 2 % liegen. Allerdings sind die Abwärtsrisiken für die Inflation durch den sich verschärfenden internationalen Zollkonflikt gestiegen. Die EZB muss auf die deutlich gestiegene Gefahr einer globalen Rezession und die erhöhten Risiken für die Finanzmarktstabilität reagieren. Bereits vor dem Zollkonflikt waren weitere Zinssenkungen erforderlich, weil die Geldpolitik trotz der anhaltenden Wirtschaftsschwäche noch restriktiv ausgerichtet ist. Nun ist eine geldpolitische Lockerung umso dringlicher, damit Geld- und Fiskalpolitik gemeinsam die Binnennachfrage stärken und ein günstiges Umfeld für Investitionen schaffen können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
-
Literaturhinweis
A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation (2024)
Zitatform
Afrouzi, Hassan, Andrés Blanco, Andrés Drenik & Erik Hurst (2024): A Theory of How Workers Keep Up With Inflation. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 33233), Cambridge, Mass, 58 S.
Abstract
"In this paper, we develop a model that combines elements of modern macro labor theories with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages. Calibrating with pre-2020 data, we show the model can simultaneously match the trends in worker flows and wage changes during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Finally, we show that other “hot labor market” theories that can cause an increase in the aggregate vacancy-to-unemployment rate have implications that are inconsistent with the worker flows and wage dynamics observed during the recent inflationary period. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States, all else equal, reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason why workers report they dislike inflation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation (2024)
Zitatform
Ahn, Hie Joo, HAN CHEN & MICHAEL KISTER (2024): A New Indicator of Common Wage Inflation. In: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. DOI:10.1111/jmcb.13217
Abstract
"We develop a new indicator of common wage inflation (CWI) by extracting and aggregating the common components from detailed industry-level nominal wage data. We show that the CWI is better aligned with the unemployment rate gap for the post-Great Recession period than are other indicators of wage inflation. The CWI indicates a tighter economy than popularly cited wage measures during the expansion after the Great Recession, and the industry-specific factors largely account for the subdued wage growth despite the continued tightening in the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics (2024)
Zitatform
Baldi, M. M., M. Guzowska & E. Michetti (2024): A dynamically consistent discretization method for the Goodwin model with nonlinear Phillips curve. Comparing qualitative and quantitative dynamics. In: Decisions in economics and finance. DOI:10.1007/s10203-024-00491-9
Abstract
"The Goodwin model is a widely used economic growth model able to explain endogenous fluctuations in employment rate and wage share; in its initial version, the standard Phillips curve is used. In the present work, we suggest a revised Phillips curve that takes into account how the wage share influences the rate of changes of the wage itself thus obtaining a continuous-time modified Goodwin model. Since applying models to real data often requires working in a discrete-time setup, we then move from the continuous-time to the discrete-time version of the proposed model, by using a general polynomial discretization method in backward and forward-looking (hybrid discretization). By comparing the continuous-time system to its discrete-time counterpart we prove that fixed points and local dynamics do not change, as long as the time step is not too high. Moreover, numerical simulations employing Dynamic Time Warping, cross-correlation, and semblance analysis consistently affirm that enhancing the similarity of quantitative dynamics is achieved by reducing the time step." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
-
Literaturhinweis
Licht und Schatten der deutschen Konjunktur: IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2024 (2024)
Bardt, Hubertus ; Seele, Stefanie; Demary, Markus; Grömling, Michael; Obst, Thomas; Schaefer, Thilo; Pimpertz, Jochen; Hentze, Tobias; Schäfer, Holger; Henger, Ralph;Zitatform
Bardt, Hubertus, Markus Demary, Michael Grömling, Ralph Henger, Tobias Hentze, Thomas Obst, Jochen Pimpertz, Thilo Schaefer, Holger Schäfer & Stefanie Seele (2024): Licht und Schatten der deutschen Konjunktur: IW-Konjunkturprognose Herbst 2024. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2024,68), Köln, 4 S.
Abstract
"Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 allenfalls das Vorjahresvolumen erreichen. Dabei gibt es moderate Zuwächse beim Konsum, da sich die Inflationsrate bei gut 2 Prozent normalisiert. Dem stehen starke Rückgänge bei den Investitionen gegenüber. Der Außenhandel leidet unter der schwachen Weltwirtschaft. Positive Wirtschaftsimpulse aus dem Dienstleistungssektor verhindern eine schwere Rezession in Deutschland, denn in der Industrie und der Bauwirtschaft sind deutliche Rückgänge zu sehen. Die Beschäftigung wird in diesem Jahr im Dienstleistungssektor ansteigen, zugleich nimmt aber auch die Arbeitslosigkeit auf 6 Prozent zu." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)