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Albinowski, Maciej & Piotr Lewandowski (2024): The impact of ICT and robots on labour market outcomes of demographic groups in Europe. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 87. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102481

Abstract

"We study the age- and gender-specific labour market effects of two key modern technologies, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and robots. Our sample includes 14 European countries between 2010 and 2018. We use the variation in technology adoption between industries and apply the instrumental variables strategy proposed by Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020) to identify the causal effects of technology adoption. We find that exposure to ICT and robots increased the shares of young and prime-aged women in employment and in the wage bills of particular sectors. However, it reduced the shares of older women and prime-aged men. We do not detect significant effects of technology adoption on the relative wages of most demographic groups. Between 2010 and 2018, the growth in ICT capital played a larger role than robot adoption in the changes in the withinsector labor market outcomes of demographic groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, ©2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Dauth, Wolfgang, Michael Moritz, Katharina Grienberger, Florian Lehmer, Steffen Müller, Bernd Fitzenberger, Verena Plümpe, Oliver Falck, Anja Bauer, Anja Sonnenburg, Markus Janser, Christian Schneemann, André Diegmann, Britta Matthes & Anna Solms; Katharina Grienberger, Florian Lehmer, Steffen Müller, Bernd Fitzenberger, Verena Plümpe, Oliver Falck, Anja Bauer, Anja Sonnenburg, Markus Janser, Christian Schneemann, André Diegmann, Britta Matthes & Anna Solms (sonst. bet. Pers.) (2024): Wie bewältigen Regionen die digitale und ökologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt? (Podium). In: IAB-Forum H. 06.05.2024. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20240506.01

Abstract

"Was bedeuten die absehbaren Transformationsprozesse der kommenden Jahrzehnte auf regionaler Ebene und wie können sie gemeistert werden? Antworten auf diese Fragen gab der IWH/IAB-Workshop zur Arbeitsmarktpolitik, der in diesem Jahr erstmals am IAB in Nürnberg stattfand." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Kristal, Tali, Efrat Herzberg-Druker & Adena White (2024): Is the wage premium on using computers at work gender-specific? In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 89. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2024.100890

Abstract

"Past research on the relationship between computers and wages has revealed two stylized facts. First, workers who use a computer at work earn higher wages than similar workers who do not (termed as ‘the computer wage premium’). Second, women are more likely to use a computer at work than are men. Given the recognized computer wage premium and women’s advantage in computer use at work, we ask: Is the wage premium on using computers at work gender- or non-gender-specific? Given gendered processes operating at both the occupational and within-occupation levels, we expect that returns to computer usage are gender-bias. This contrasts the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) theory assumption that the theorized pathways through which computers boost earnings are non-gender-specific productivity-enhancing mechanisms. Analyzing occupational data on computer use at work from O*NET attached to the 1979–2016 Current Population Surveys (CPS) and individual-level data from the 2012 Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), we find that the computer wage premium is biased in favor of men at the occupation level. We conclude by suggesting that computer-based technologies relate to reproducing old forms of gender pay inequality due to gendered processes that operate mainly at the structural level (i.e., occupations) rather than at the individual level." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Zhou, Yongguang, Weihong Xie, Jingwu Li & Qun Li (2024): Effects of digital innovation on income inequality among different workforces: evidence from Chinese industries. In: Applied Economics online erschienen am 18.03.2024, S. 1-13. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2024.2331424

Abstract

"To understand the impact of digital innovation on the workforce and its role in achieving common prosperity, this paper uses data from Chinese A-share listed companies during 2006–2021 to investigate the effects of digital innovation on income inequality among different industry-level groups. We find that digital innovation significantly reduces income inequality among employees across industries, but it does not significantly impact income inequality within management groups. Through mechanistic analysis, we find that digital innovation decreases income inequality among ordinary employees whose incomes are closely linked to company performance and thereby for the entire workforce by narrowing the income gap across industries. However, as digital innovation does not significantly influence evaluation systems (e.g. educational degrees) for management income, it does not contribute to reducing income inequality among managerial levels. These findings provide valuable insights to develop policies for common prosperity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron, Hans R. A. Koster & Ceren Ozgen (2023): Robots and Workers: Evidence from the Netherlands. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31009), Cambridge, Mass, 60 S.

Abstract

"We estimate the effects of robot adoption on firm-level and worker-level outcomes in the Netherlands using a large employer-employee panel dataset spanning 2009-2020. Our firm-level results confirm previous findings, with positive effects on value added and hours worked for robot-adopting firms and negative outcomes on competitors in the same industry. Our worker-level results show that directly-affected workers (e.g., blue-collar workers performing routine or replaceable tasks) face lower earnings and employment rates, while other workers indirectly gain from robot adoption. We also find that the negative effects from competitors' robot adoption load on directly-affected workers, while other workers benefit from this industry-level robot adoption. Overall, our results highlight the uneven effects of automation on the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bowlus, Audra, Lance Lochner, Chris Robinson & Eda Suleymanoglu (2023): Wages, Skills, and Skill-Biased Technical Change. The Canonical Model Revisited. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 58, H. 6, S. 1783-1819. DOI:10.3368/jhr.0617-8889r1

Abstract

"While influential, the canonical supply–demand model of the wage returns to skill has faced challenges, including theoretically wrong-signed elasticities of substitution, counterintuitive paths for skill-biased technical change (SBTC), and an inability to account for observed deviations in college premia for younger versus older workers. We show that using improved estimates of skill prices and supplies that account for variation in skills across cohorts helps to explain the college premium differences between younger versus older workers and produces better out-of-sample predictions, positive elasticities of substitution between high- and low-skill workers, and a more modest role for SBTC. We further show that accounting for recession-induced jumps and trend adjustments in SBTC and linking SBTC to direct measures of information technology investment expenditures yield an improved fit, no puzzling slowdown in SBTC during the early 1990s, and a higher elasticity of substitution between high- and low-skill workers than previous ad hoc assumptions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))

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Brall, Franziska & Ramona Schmid (2023): Automation, Robots and Wage Inequality in Germany. A decomposition Analysis. In: Labour, Jg. 37, H. 1, S. 33-95. DOI:10.1111/labr.12236

Abstract

"We conduct a decomposition analysis based on recentred influence function (RIF) regressions to disentangle the relative importance of automation and robotization for wage inequality in the manufacturing sector in Germany between 1996 and 2017. Our measure of automation threat combines occupation-specific scores of automation risk with sector-specific robot densities. We find that besides changes in the composition of individual characteristics, structural shifts among different automation threat groups are a non-negligible factor associated with wage inequality between 1996 and 2017. Moreover, the increase in wage dispersion among the different automation threat groups has contributed significantly to higher wage inequality in the 1990s and 2000s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))

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Carbonero, Francesco, Enzo Weber & Christian J. Offermanns (2023): The Fall of the Labor Income Share: the Role of Technological Change and Hiring Frictions. In: Review of Economic Dynamics, Jg. 49, S. 251-268., 2022-01-09. DOI:10.1016/j.red.2022.09.001

Abstract

"Die Veränderungen in der funktionalen Einkommensverteilung erhalten in der Forschung viel Aufmerksamkeit. Wir dokumentieren einen durchschnittlichen Rückgang des labour share (Anteil des Faktors Arbeit an der Einkommensverteilung) von 8 Prozentpunkten für acht europäische Länder und die USA zwischen 1980 und 2007. Wir untersuchen theoretisch und empirisch zwei Mechanismen: Substitution zwischen Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologie (IKT) und Arbeit sowie Friktionen bei Beschäftigungsanpassungen. Wir finden, dass Substitution zwischen IKT und Arbeit wesentlich den Rückgang des labour share erklären kann. Wenn Arbeitsmarktfriktionen berücksichtigt werden, übernehmen diese allerdings einen Teil der Erklärungskraft. Insbesondere spielen Einstellungskosten in Europa eine größere Rolle als in den USA. Schließlich wird die Subsitutionselastizität zwischen IKT und Arbeit als Funktion institutioneller und struktureller Variablen modelliert und festgestellt, dass sie mit dem Anteil von Routine-Berufen positiv und mit dem Anteil hochqualifizierter Arbeiter negativ korreliert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Ghosh, Pallab & Zexuan Liu (2023): The puzzle of changes in employment and wages in routine task-intensive occupations. In: Empirical economics, Jg. 65, H. 4, S. 1965-1980. DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02394-x

Abstract

"Autor and Dorn (Am Econ Rev 103(5):1553–1597, 2013) provide an explanation of the polarization of US employment and wages for the period 1980–2005. Using the 1980 Census and 2005 American Community Survey data, this study replicates the estimation results of Autor and Dorn (2013) for employment polarization in all major occupation groups and qualitatively matches the wage polarization results. Also, we investigate the puzzle of why employment and wages changed in opposite directions only in clerical and administrative support occupations in 1980–2005." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Hutter, Christian & Enzo Weber (2023): Labour market effects of wage inequality and skill-biased technical change. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 55, H. 27, S. 3063-3084., 2022-07-22. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2022.2108751

Abstract

"Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die Beziehung zwischen Ungleichheit und der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Deutschland seit 1975 näher zu beleuchten. Die wichtigsten Theorien sowie auch die empirische Evidenz sind sich zu diesem Thema nicht einig. Unser strukturelles Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodell modelliert explizit den qualifikationsverzerrenden technologischen Fortschritt als Quelle von Ungleichheit. Mithilfe von nicht-rekursiven Langfristrestriktionen werden die Effekte von Ungleichheitsschocks, qualifikationsverzerrenden (und -neutralen) Technologieschocks auf Arbeitsvolumen, reale Lohnkosten und Produktivität identifiziert. Deskriptive Evidenz zeigt, dass der jahrzehntelange Anstieg der Lohnungleichheit im Jahr 2010 gestoppt wurde und sich sogar umkehrte. Dafür ist hauptsächlich die sinkende Ungleichheit in der unteren Hälfte der Lohnverteilung verantwortlich. Die Impuls-Antwort-Analysen verdeutlichen, dass qualifikationsverzerrende Technologieschocks sich negativ auf das Arbeitsvolumen auswirken, die Lohnungleichheit, Lohnkosten und Produktivität allerdings erhöhen. Ungleichheitsschocks haben ebenfalls einen negativen Effekt auf das Arbeitsvolumen, reduzieren zusätzlich aber die Produktivität." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Jurkat, Anne, Rainer Klump & Florian Schneider (2023): Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis. (EconStor Preprints 274156), Kiel, 72 S.

Abstract

"The empirical evidence on how industrial robots affect employment and wages is very mixed. Our meta-study helps to uncover the potentially true effect of industrial robots on labor market outcomes and to identify drivers of the heterogeneous empirical results. By means of a systematic literature research, we collected 53 papers containing 2143 estimations for the impact of robot adoption on wages. We observe only limited evidence for a publication bias in favor of negative results. The genuine overall effect of industrial robots on wages is close to zero and both statistically and economically insignificant. With regard to the drivers of heterogeneity, we find that more positive results are obtained if primary estimations a) include more countries in their sample, b) control for ICT capital, demographic developments, or tenure, c) focus on employees that remain employed in the same sector, d) consider only non-manufacturing industries, e) are specified in long differences, and f) come from a peer-reviewed journal article. More negative effects, in turn, are reported for primary estimations that are i) weighted, ii) aggregated at country level, iii) control for trade exposure, iv) and consider only manufacturing industries. We also find some evidence for skill-biased technological change. The magnitude of that effect is albeit small and less robust than one might expect in view of skill-biased technological change. We find little evidence for data dependence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kostøl, Fredrik B. & Elin Svarstad (2023): Trade Unions and the Process of Technological Change. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 84. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102386

Abstract

"We investigate how trade unions influence the process of technological change at the workplace level. Using matched employer-employee data, comprising all Norwegian workplaces and working individuals in the period 2000-2014, we exploit exogeneous changes in the tax rules for union members to identify how changes in unionization rates affect the structural composition of occupations within workplaces. Making a distinction between routine and non-routine workers, based on their estimated probabilities of being replaced by automation technologies, we show how labor unions contribute to raising the relative wage of routine workers over non-routine workers. As routine workers on average have lower earnings than non-routine workers, unions thereby contribute to compress wages at the workplace level. The direct implication of this policy is shown to reduce the relative demand for routine workers over non-routine workers in unionized establishments. However, our results also suggest that unions influence the relative demand for routine workers, conditional on relative wages. Our findings thus give some support to bargaining theories where unions force firms off their demand curves." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))

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Wicht, Alexandra, Nora Müller, Reinhard Pollak & Silke Anger (2023): Gendered wage effects of changes in job tasks: Evidence from Germany. (SocArXiv papers), 26 S. DOI:10.31235/osf.io/5dcgw

Abstract

"While previous research showed that technological progress and digitization change job Tasks within occupations and that these occupation-level changes in job tasks affect the wage structure and personal wages, little is known about whether individual changes in job Tasks affect personal earnings. Following the task-biased technological change approach, we analyze whether individuals who take on more non-routine job tasks with a low Automation risk (complex and autonomous tasks) are rewarded with higher wages. Accounting for the strong gender segregation of the German labor market, we separately analyze men and women and, due to the rigid German labor market, additionally account for job changes as a potential moderator. We use three-wave panel data covering a period of nine years from the German National Educational Panel Study. Our results from fixed-effects regressions Show that there is substantial heterogeneity in the relationship between changes in non-routine Job tasks and wages by gender and between those who have or have not changed jobs, which is masked when looking at average wage differentials by non-routine job tasks. While both genders benefit from increased task complexity in job changes, the impact is more pronounced for females, helping to slightly narrow the still persistent gender wage gap. However, when taking on more autonomous tasks in job changes, males experience significant benefits, further contributing to the widening of the gender wage gap. In essence, our findings underscore gender-specific monetary returns to increasing non-routine tasks, particularly highlighting the ability of male job changers to monetarize their newly assigned tasks." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Willcox, Michael & Brittany Feor (2023): Structural Changes in Canadian Employment from 1997 to 2022. (JRC working papers series on labour, education and technology 2023,08), Sevilla, 33 S.

Abstract

"This paper uses the European Jobs Monitor (2017) jobs' approach to examine the structural changes in employment and wages in Canada between 1997 and 2022. Changes in employment and real wages reveals a long-term pattern of upgrading, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis. There is variation in these patterns within the 25-year period including a shift towards higher quality jobs after the financial crisis and evidence of wage polarisation between 2020 and 2022. Employment and wage trends by sector, sex and age were explored. Employment shifted away from manufacturing towards the healthcare and social assistance, professional, scientific, and technical services, and construction sectors since the late 1990s which accelerated after the global financial crisis. The wage gap and difference in employment shares between men and women has narrowed over time, despite recent widening following the pandemic. Canada's aging population has resulted in a growing share of mature workers in the labour market and in core-age workers becoming more concentrated in mid-to-high wage jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This study is made of two parts: part A and part B. Part A of the study analyses - through 27 country fiches - the extent to which each EU Member State is prepared for ensuring a socially fair digital transformation in the coming years, based on both its current situation and future prospects. In this analysis, key areas of focus include the labor market, digital skills of the population, social protection as well as cross-cutting dimensions, such as the digitalization level of businesses and the quality of digital infrastructures. Part B of the study reviews - through 30 case studies - some of the main actual and potential uses of digital technologies (including AI) by a country’s public sector for improving the design and the delivery of social benefits and active labor market policies, as well as for complementing the monitoring of poverty and income inequality (the case studies analysed are mainly in Member States but also in a few third countries)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 40, H. S1, S. S293-S340. DOI:10.1086/718327

Abstract

"We study the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor markets using establishment-level data on the near universe of online vacancies in the United States from 2010 onward. There is rapid growth in AI-related vacancies over 2010–18 that is driven by establishments whose workers engage in tasks compatible with AI’s current capabilities. As these AI-exposed establishments adopt AI, they simultaneously reduce hiring in non-AI positions and change the skill requirements of remaining postings. While visible at the establishment level, the aggregate impacts of AI-labor substitution on employment and wage growth in more exposed occupations and industries is currently too small to be detectable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2022): Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in U.S. Wage Inequality. In: Econometrica, Jg. 90, H. 5, S. 1973-2016. DOI:10.3982/ECTA19815

Abstract

"We document that between 50% and 70% of changes in the U.S. wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from jobs for which they have comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in education wage differentials between 1980 and 2016. The negative relationship between wage changes and task displacement is unaffected when we control for changes in market power, deunionization, and other forms of capital deepening and technology unrelated to automation. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of automation, which incorporate induced changes in industry composition and ripple effects due to task reallocation across different groups. Our quantitative evaluation explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand‐in‐hand with modest productivity gains." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Boris Ivanov & Laura Pohlan (2022): Regional Structural Change and the Effects of Job Loss. (ZEW discussion paper 22-019), Mannheim, 55 S.

Abstract

"In vielen Ländern sind routine-intensive Berufe rückläufig, aber wie wirkt sich dies auf die individuelle Karriere aus, wenn der Rückgang dieser Berufe im lokalen Arbeitsmarkt besonders stark ausfällt? Diese Studie zeigt basierend auf administrativen Daten aus Deutschland und einem mit Matching kombinierten Differenz-von-Differenzen-Ansatz, dass die individuellen Kosten eines Arbeitsplatzverlustes stark von der Tätigkeitsorientierung des regionalen Strukturwandels abhängen. Personen aus manuellen routine-intensiven Berufen haben nach einer Entlassung wesentlich höhere und lang anhaltende Beschäftigungs- und Lohnverluste in Regionen, in denen der Rückgang dieser Berufe am stärksten ausgeprägt ist. Regionale und berufliche Mobilität dienen teilweise als Anpassungsmechanismen, sie sind jedoch mit hohen Kosten verbunden, da diese Wechsel auch Verluste bei unternehmensspezifischen Lohnaufschlägen mit sich bringen. Beschäftigte, die nicht entlassen werden, bleiben hingegen weitgehend vom Strukturwandel verschont." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bachmann, Ronald, Gökay Demir, Colin Green & Arne Uhlendorff (2022): The Role of Within-Occupation Task Changes in Wage Development. (Ruhr economic papers 975), Essen, 41 S. DOI:10.4419/96973140

Abstract

"Wir untersuchen, wie Veränderungen der Aufgabeninhalte im Laufe der Zeit die berufliche Lohnentwicklung beeinflussen. Anhand von Umfragedaten aus Deutschland dokumentieren wir eine erhebliche Heterogenität bei der Veränderung von Aufgabeninhalten innerhalb eines Berufes. Kombiniert man diese Erkenntnisse mit administrativen Daten zu individuellen Beschäftigungsergebnissen über einen Zeitraum von 25 Jahren, so stellt man fest, dass es eine erhebliche Heterogenität in Bezug auf Lohneinbußen bei ursprünglich routineintensiven Tätigkeiten gibt. Während Berufe, die (relativ) routineintensiv bleiben, erhebliche Lohneinbußen mit sich bringen, bleiben die Löhne in Berufen mit abnehmender Routineintensität stabil oder steigen sogar. Diese Ergebnisse lassen sich nicht durch Kompositions- oder Kohorteneffekte erklärt werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bachmann, Ronald & Myrielle Gonschor (2022): Technological Progress, Occupational Structure and Gender Gaps in the German Labour Market. (IZA discussion paper 15419), Bonn, 39 S.

Abstract

"We analyze if technological progress and the corresponding change in the occupational structure have improved the relative position of women in the labour market. We show that the share of women rises most strongly in non-routine cognitive and manual occupations, but declines in routine occupations. While the share of women also rises relatively strongly in high-paying occupations, womens' individual-level wages lag behind which implies within-occupation gender wage gaps. A decomposition exercise shows that composition effects with respect to both individual and job characteristics can explain the rise of female shares in the top tier of the labour market to an extent. However, the unexplained part of the decomposition is sizeable, indicating that developments such as technological progress are relevant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berg, Janine, Francis Green, Laura Nurski & David Spencer (2022): Risks to job quality from digital Technologies: are industrial relations in Europe ready for the challenge? (Working paper / Bruegel 2022,16), Brussels, 31 S.

Abstract

"We examine the job quality effects of new digital technologies in Europe, using the framework of seven job quality ‘domains’: pay, working time quality, prospects, skills and discretion, work intensity, social environment and physical environment. The theoretical effects from new technology are ambivalent for all domains. Data on robot shocks matched to the European Working Conditions Surveys for 2010 and 2015 is used to generate empirical estimates, which show significant aggregate negative effects in three domains, and a positive effect in one. Some negative effects are enhanced where there is below-median collective bargaining. In light of these analyses, and in order to think through the challenge of regulating the development and implementation of all forms of digital technologies, we review regulations in several European countries. Drawing on the principles of human-centred design, we advance the general hypothesis that worker participation is important for securing good job quality outcomes, at both the innovation and adoption stages. We also consider the application to the regulation of job quality of national and supra-national data protection legislation. In these ways, the paper extends the debate about the future of work beyond employment and pay, to a consideration of job quality more broadly." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cords, Dario & Klaus Prettner (2022): Technological unemployment revisited: automation in a search and matching framework. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 74, H. 1, S. 115-135. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpab022

Abstract

"Will automation raise unemployment and what is the role of education in this context? To answer these questions, we propose a search and matching model of the labour market with two skill types and with industrial robots. In line with evidence to date, robots are better substitutes for low-skilled workers than for high-skilled workers. We show that robot adoption leads to rising unemployment and falling wages of low-skilled workers and falling unemployment and rising wages of high-skilled workers. In a calibration to Austrian and German data, we find that robot adoption destroys fewer low-skilled jobs than the number of high-skilled jobs it creates. For Australia and the USA, the reverse holds true. Allowing for endogenous skill acquisition of workers implies positive employment effects of automation in all four countries. Thus, the firm creation mechanism in the search and matching model and skill acquisition are alleviating the adverse effects of automation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Gries, Thomas & Wim Naudé (2022): Modelling artificial intelligence in economics. In: Journal for labour market research, Jg. 56. DOI:10.1186/s12651-022-00319-2

Abstract

"We provide a partial equilibrium model wherein AI provides abilities combined with human skills to provide an aggregate intermediate service good. We use the model to find that the extent of automation through AI will be greater if (a) the economy is relatively abundant in sophisticated programs and machine abilities compared to human skills; (b) the economy hosts a relatively large number of AI-providing firms and experts; and (c) the task-specific productivity of AI services is relatively high compared to the task-specific productivity of general labor and labor skills. We also illustrate that the contribution of AI to aggregate productive labor service depends not only on the amount of AI services available but on the endogenous number of automated tasks, the relative productivity of standard and IT-related labor, and the substitutability of tasks. These determinants also affect the income distribution between the two kinds of labor. We derive several empirical implications and identify possible future extensions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer) ((en))

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(2022): Atlas der digitalen Arbeit. Daten und Fakten über die Beschäftigung der Zukunft. Berlin ; Düsseldorf, 54 S.

Abstract

"Der Atlas der digitalen Arbeit blickt auf viele verschiedene Branchen: Auto, Chemie und Pharma, aber auch die Pflege und die öffentliche Hand. Es geht um grundlegende Fragen: Wie weit sind smarte Computer und Roboter in diesen Bereichen auf dem Vormarsch? Welche Folgen hat das für die Beschäftigten? Wie viel verdienen Menschen in digitalen Berufen? Was verändert sich in der Berufsausbildung? Macht Homeoffice glücklich? Profitieren Frauen und Männer gleichermaßen von den Vorteilen der digitalen Arbeitswelt? Der neue Atlas der digitalen Arbeit, den die Hans-Böckler-Stiftung und der Deutsche Gewerkschaftsbund (DGB) herausgeben, bildet zahlreiche Aspekte der Arbeitswelt von heute ab und bringt Entwicklungstrends auf den Punkt. Mit kurzen Texten und prägnanten, aktuellen Infografiken, gestaltet von der renommierten Berliner Atlasmanufaktur. Eine solide Grundlage, um über die Arbeit der Zukunft zu diskutieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hornuf, Lars & Daniel Vrankar (2022): Hourly Wages in Crowdworking: A Meta-Analysis. (CESifo working paper 9540), München, 38 S.

Abstract

"In the past decade, crowdworking on online labor market platforms has become the main source of income for a growing number of people worldwide. This development has led to increasing political and scientific interest in the wages that people can earn on such platforms. In this article, we extend the literature based on a single platform, region, or category of crowdworking by conducting a meta-analysis of the prevalent hourly wages. After a systematic and rigorous literature search, we consider 20 primary empirical studies, including 104 wages and 76,282 data points from 22 platforms, eight different countries, and a time span of 12 years. We find that, on average, microwork results in an hourly wage of less than $6. This wage is significantly lower than the mean wage of online freelancers, which is roughly three times higher. We find that hourly wages accounting for unpaid work, such as searching for tasks and communicating with requesters, tend to be significantly lower than wages not considering unpaid work. Legislators and researchers evaluating wages in crowdworking should be aware of this bias when assessing hourly wages, given that the majority of the literature does not account for the effect of unpaid work time on crowdworking wages. To foster the comparability of different research results, we suggest that scholars consider a wage malus to account for unpaid work. Finally, we find that hourly wages collected through surveys tend to be lower than wages collected via browser plugins or other technical data collection methods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Korinek, Anton & Megan Juelfs (2022): Preparing for the (Non-Existent?) Future of Work. (NBER working paper 30172), Cambridge, Mass, 42 S. DOI:10.3386/w30172

Abstract

"This paper considers the labor market and distributional implications of a scenario of ever-more-intelligent autonomous machines that substitute for human labor and drive down wages. We lay out three concerns arising from such a scenario and evaluate recent predictions and objections to these concerns. Then we analyze how a utilitarian social planner would allocate work and income if these concerns start to materialize. As the income produced by autonomous machines rises and the value of labor declines, a utilitarian planner finds it optimal to phase out work, beginning with workers who have low labor productivity and job satisfaction, since they have comparative advantage in enjoying leisure. This is in stark contrast to welfare systems that force individuals with low labor productivity to work. If there are significant wage declines, avoiding mass misery will require other ways of distributing income than labor markets, whether via sufficiently well-distributed capital ownership or via benefits. Recipients could still engage in work for its own sake if they enjoy work amenities such as structure, purpose and meaning. If work gives rise to positive externalities such as social connections or political stability, or if individuals undervalue the benefits of work because of internalities, then a social planner would incentivize work. However, in the long run, the planner might be able to achieve a higher level of social welfare by adopting alternative ways of providing these benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ocampo, Sergio (2022): A Task-Based Theory of Occupations with Multidimensional Heterogeneity. (Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) working paper series 2022-02), London, Ontario, 64 S.

Abstract

"I develop an assignment model of occupations with multidimensional heterogeneity in production tasks and worker skills. Tasks are distributed continuously in the skill space, whereas workers have a discrete distribution with a finite number of types. Occupations arise endogenously as bundles of tasks optimally assigned to a type of worker. The model allows us to study how occupations respond to changes in the economic environment, making it useful for analyzing the implications of automation, skill-biased technical change, offshoring, and worker training. Using the model, I characterize how wages, the marginal product of workers, the substitutability between worker types, and the labor share depend on the assignment of tasks to workers. I introduce automation as the choice of the optimal size and location of a mass of identical robots in the task space. Automation displaces workers by replacing them in the performance of tasks, generating a cascading effect on other workers as the boundaries of occupations are redrawn." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ricci, Andrea, Claudia Vittori, Francesco Quartaro & Stefano Dughera (2022): Technological externalities and wages: new evidence from Italian provinces. (INAPP working paper / Istituto nazionale per l’analisi delle politiche pubbliche 85), Rom, 23 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, we investigate the relationship between local wages and the internal structure of the regional knowledge base. The purpose is to assess if the workers' compensations are related to the peculiarities of the technological space where they supply their labor services. To test this hypothesis, we apply the concepts of related and unrelated variety to the firms' patenting activity as to assess if wages grow more in a framework of 'knowledge deepening' (generated by firms innovating in related technological domains) or in one of 'knowledge widening' (generated by firms innovating in unrelated technological domains)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Roy, Shreya, Sugata Marjit & Bibek Ray Chaudhuri (2022): Role of Artificial Intelligence in Intra-Sectoral Wage Inequality in an Open Economy. A Finite Change Approach. (CESifo working paper 9862), München, 27 S.

Abstract

"Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly impact the income of individuals. Cross-country data shows that introduction of AI is inequality enhancing in developing and less developed countries. In this paper, we attempt to understand the reason for increase in wage inequality across labourers due to introduction of AI, in a finite change General Equilibrium (GE) set up which allows for emergence of a new activity. AI-induced technological shock is introduced in the non-traded sector of an open economy with heterogeneous skills. We show how the advent of AI (which was initially non-existent) in the non-traded sector separates the skills of the once homogenous workers, thus, creating an intra-sectoral wage gap. What proportion of the low-skilled workers can move to the higher wage paying sector depends on an adaptability factor that acts as an eligibility criterion in fragmenting the erstwhile homogenous labourers and also works towards rising intra-group wage gap." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stamegna, Marco (2022): Wage inequality and induced innovation in a classical-Marxian growth model. (MPRA paper / University Library of Munich 113805), München, 37 S.

Abstract

"The present paper works out a classical-Marxian growth model with an endogenous direction of technical change and a heterogeneous labour force, made up of high-skilled and low-skilled workers. It draws on the Kaleckian mark-up pricing to link wage inequality to the relative unit labour cost at a firm level; on growth cycle models à la Goodwin to formalize the dynamic interaction between labour market and distributive shares of income; on the induced innovation literature to link the bias of technical change to the firm's choice of the optimal combination of factor-augmenting technologies. We assume that economic growth is constrained by the growth rate of the high-skilled effective labour supply, whereas the low-skilled labour supply is perfectly elastic. Thus, we develop a three-dimensional system of differential equations for the output-capital ratio, the relative unit labour cost and the employment rate of the high-skilled workers, and investigate the stability and the main properties of the steady-state equilibrium. We find that, in contrast to the neoclassical literature on skill-biased technical change, the institutional framework governing the conflict over income distribution is the ultimate determinant of both wage inequality and the direction of technical change. A decline in low-skilled workers' bargaining strength or a rise in product market concentration lead to both an increase in wage inequality and a bias of technical change favouring high-skilled over low-skilled labour productivity growth. As opposed to the Goodwin model with induced technical change and homogeneous labour force, labour market institutions thus affect steady-state income distribution, capital accumulation and labour productivity growth, and no necessary trade-off arises between labour market regulation and employment. Finally, if the steady-state value of wage inequality exceeds a critical value, an exogenous increase in the mark-up or in the high-skilled workers' bargaining power" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aksoy, Cevat Giray, Berkay Özcan & Julia Philipp (2021): Robots and the Gender Pay Gap in Europe. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 134. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103693

Abstract

"Could robotization make the gender pay gap worse? We provide the first large-scale evidence on the impact of industrial robots on the gender pay gap using data from 20 European countries. We show that robot adoption increases both male and female earnings but also increases the gender pay gap. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find that a ten percent increase in robotization leads to a 1.8 percent increase in the gender pay gap. These results are driven by countries with high initial levels of gender inequality and can be explained by the fact that men at medium- and high-skill occupations disproportionately benefit from robotization, through a productivity effect. We rule out the possibility that our results are driven by mechanical changes in the gender composition of the workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))

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Bertinelli, Luisito, Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout (2021): Labor Market Effects Of Technology Shocks Biased Toward The Traded Sector. (Documents de travail / Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée 2021-09), Sraßburg, 154 S.

Abstract

"Motivated by recent evidence pointing at an increasing contribution of asymmetric shocks across sectors to economic fluctuations, we explore the labor market effects of technology shocks biased toward the traded sector. Our VAR evidence for seventeen OECD countries reveals that the non-traded sector alone drives the increase in total hours worked following a technology shock that increases permanently traded relative to non-traded TFP. The shock gives rise to a reallocation of labor which contributes to 35% on average of the rise in non-traded hours worked. Both labor reallocation and variations in labor income shares are found empirically connected with factor-biased technological change. Our quantitative analysis shows that a two-sector open economy model with flexible prices can reproduce the labor market effects we document empirically once we allow for technological change biased toward labor together with additional specific elements. When calibrating the model to country-specific data, its ability to account for the cross-country reallocation and redistributive effects we estimate increases once we let factor-biased technological change vary between sectors and across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bonin, Holger, Susanne Steffes, Annette Hillerich-Sigg, Annabelle Krause-Pilatus & Ulf Rinne (2021): Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt auf die Erwerbstätigkeit von Frauen. Kurzexpertise im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Arbeit und Soziales. (IZA research report 107), Bonn, 57 S.

Abstract

"Der digitale Wandel verändert die Beschäftigungschancen in einzelnen Branchen und Berufen unterschiedlich, und auch der digitale Wandel am individuellen Arbeitsplatz kann sich in Form und Intensität sehr verschieden gestalten. Wegen der anhaltenden Geschlechterunterschiede in der Arbeitswelt könnten die mit der Digitalisierung einhergehenden Veränderungen die Beschäftigungs- und Einkommenschancen von Frauen systematisch anders verändern als Männer. Dabei schafft der technologische Wandel am Arbeitsmarkt sowohl Risiken, dass sich die Disparitäten zwischen den Geschlechtern vergrößern, als auch Chancen für Frauen, ihre Stellung im Arbeitsmarkt im Verhältnis zu den Männern zu verbessern. Vor diesem Hintergrund gibt diese Kurzexpertise einen fundierten Überblick über die Erkenntnisse der nationalen und internationalen Forschung zu den Chancen und Risiken, die der digitale Wandel am Arbeitsmarkt spezifisch für Frauen mit sich bringen kann." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Demirel, Pelin, Ekaterina Nemkova & Rebecca Taylor (2021): Reproducing Global Inequalities in the Online Labour Market: Valuing Capital in the Design Field. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 35, H. 5, S. 914-930. DOI:10.1177/0950017020942447

Abstract

"Millions of freelancers work on digital platforms in the online labour market (OLM). The OLM´s capacity to both undermine and reproduce labour inequalities is a theme in contemporary platform economy debates. What is less well understood is how processes of social (re)production take place in practice for diverse freelancers on global platforms. Drawing on a study of freelance designers, we use Bourdieus notions of capital and field to explore the specific rules of the game and the symbolic valuing of skills and identities that secure legitimacy and advantage in the OLM. We contribute to contemporary debates by illuminating the power of Global North actors to shape freelancer positions and hierarchies in the online design field. The cost advantages of Global South workers are counterbalanced by the symbolic legitimising of specific cultural and social practices (specifically in relation to language) and the devaluing of others." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Genz, Sabrina, Terry Gregory, Markus Janser, Florian Lehmer & Britta Matthes (2021): How Do Workers Adjust When Firms Adopt New Technologies? (IZA discussion paper 14626), Bonn, 56 S.

Abstract

"We investigate how workers adjust to firms' investments into new digital technologies, including artificial intelligence, augmented reality, or 3D printing. For this, we collected novel data that links survey information on firms' technology adoption to administrative social security data. We then compare individual outcomes between workers employed at technology adopters relative to non-adopters. Depending on the type of technology, we find evidence for improved employment stability, higher wage growth, and increased cumulative earnings in response to digital technology adoption. These beneficial adjustments seem to be driven by technologies used by service providers rather than manufacturers. However, the adjustments do not occur equally across worker groups: IT-related expert jobs with non-routine analytic tasks benefit most from technological upgrading, coinciding with highly complex job requirements, but not necessarily with more academic skills." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Haidar, Julieta & Miska Keune (Hrsg.) (2021): Work and Labour Relations in Global Platform Capitalism. (ILERA Publication series), Cheltenham: Elgar, 288 S. DOI:10.4337/9781802205138

Abstract

"This engaging and timely book provides an in-depth analysis of work and labour relations within global platform capitalism with a specific focus on digital platforms that organise labour processes, known as labour platforms. Well-respected contributors thoroughly examine both online and offline platforms, their distinct differences and the important roles they play for both large transnational companies and those with a smaller global reach." (Author's abstract, © Edward Elgar Publishing) ((en))

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Kogan, Leonid, Dimitris Papanikolaou, Lawrence D. W. Schmidt & Bryan Seegmiller (2021): Technology-Skill Complementarity and Labor Displacement: Evidence from Linking Two Centuries of Patents with Occupations. (NBER working paper 29552), Cambridge, Mass, 66 S. DOI:10.3386/w29552

Abstract

"We construct new technology indicators using textual analysis of patent documents and occupation task descriptions that span almost two centuries (1850–2010). At the industry level, improvements in technology are associated with higher labor productivity but a decline in the labor share. Exploiting variation in the extent certain technologies are related to specific occupations, we show that technological innovation has been largely associated with worse labor market outcomes—wages and employment—for incumbent workers in related occupations using a combination of public-use and confidential administrative data. Panel data on individual worker earnings reveal that less educated, older, and more highly-paid workers experience significantly greater declines in average earnings and earnings risk following related technological advances. We reconcile these facts with the standard view of technology-skill complementarity using a model that allows for skill displacement." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Montobbio, Fabio, Jacopo Staccioli & Marco Vivarelli (2021): Labour-saving automation and occupational exposure: A text-similarity measure. (UNU-MERIT Working Paper 2021,44), Maastricht, 37 S.

Abstract

"This paper represents one of the first attempts at building a direct measure of occupational exposure to robotic labour-saving technologies. After identifying robotic and LS robotic patents retrieved by Montobbio et al. (2022), the underlying 4-digit CPC definitions are employed in order to detect functions and operations performed by technological artefacts which are more directed to substitute the labour input. This measure allows to obtain fine-grained information on tasks and occupations according to their similarity ranking. Occupational exposure by wage and employment dynamics in the United States is then studied, complemented by investigating industry and geographical penetration rates." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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O'Higgins, Niall & Luis Pinedo Caro (2021): Crowdwork for Young People: Risks and Opportunities. (IZA discussion paper 14933), Bonn, 41 S.

Abstract

"In recent years, crowdworking has emerged as a small but rapidly growing source of employment and income principally for young(er) people. Here, we build on previous work in identifying the determinants of crowdworkers' earnings. We focus on the reasons why young crowdworkers earn significantly higher hourly wages than their older counterparts. We show that this is due to the higher returns to experience accruing to younger crowd-workers. Educational attainment does not explain this age-based differential, as education is a negligible factor in determining crowdworkers' earnings. We also analyse why young women earn around 20% less than their male counterparts despite blind hiring. We confirm that this is partly explained by constraints on working time faced by women with children. The analysis also shows that 'freely chosen' crowdwork - as opposed to, young people crowd-working because of a lack of alternative employment opportunities - is conducive to higher levels of job satisfaction. Moreover, young crowdworkers in middle income countries earn less than their counterparts in high income countries but report higher levels of job satisfaction. This is entirely attributable to the lower quality of their options outside of crowdwork." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Weche, John P. & Joachim Wagner (2021): Markups and Concentration in the Context of Digitization: Evidence from German Manufacturing Industries. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 241, H. 5/6, S. 667-699. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2020-0046

Abstract

"Recent empirical studies suggest that there is a rising trend of market power across sectors in advanced economies. We contribute to this line of research by providing industry-specific evidence for German manufacturing industries, based on representative high-quality firm-level data from official statistics that cover firms from all size classes with more than 20 employees (2005–2013). We compare firm-specific markups and industry concentration as market power indicators that reflect a market structure and a performance perspective, respectively. Our results do not suggest an overall average increase in market power in German manufacturing, but increasing markups and an increasing concentration in many industries. We demonstrate the complementarity of the indicators, as predicted by industrial organization theory. We also evaluate the competitive impact of digitization and find no clear evidence that digital transformation and market power go hand in hand." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Aksoy, Cevat Giray, Berkay Ozcan & Julia Philipp (2020): Robots and the Gender Pay Gap in Europe. (IZA discussion paper 13482), 48 S.

Abstract

"Could robotization make the gender pay gap worse? We provide the first large-scale evidence on the impact of industrial robots on the gender pay gap using data from 20 European countries. We show that robot adoption increases both male and female earnings but also increases the gender pay gap. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find that a ten percent increase in robotization leads to a 1.8 percent increase in the gender pay gap. These results are mainly driven by countries with high levels of gender inequality and outsourcing destination countries. We then explore the mechanisms behind this effect and find that our results can be explained by the fact that men at medium- and high-skill occupations disproportionately benefit from robotization (through a productivity effect). We rule out the possibility that our results are driven by mechanical changes in the gender composition of the workforce nor by inflows or outflows from the manufacturing sector." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brall, Franziska & Ramona Schmid (2020): Automation, Robots and Wage Inequality in Germany. A decomposition Analysis. (Hohenheim discussion papers in business, economics and social sciences 14-2020), Stuttgart, 71 S.

Abstract

"We analyze how and through which channels wage inequality is affected by the rise in automation and robotization in the manufacturing sector in Germany from 1996 to 2017. Combining rich linked employer-employee data accounting for a variety of different individual, firm and industry characteristics with data on industrial robots and automation probabilities of occupations, we are able to disentangle different potential causes behind changes in wage inequality in Germany. We apply the recentered influence function (RIF) regression based Oaxaca-Blinder (OB) decomposition on several inequality indices and find evidence that besides personal characteristics like age and education the rise in automation and robotization contributes significantly to wage inequality in Germany. Structural shifts in the workforce composition towards occupations with lower or medium automation threat lead to higher wage inequality, which is observable over the whole considered time period. The effect of automation on the wage structure results in higher inequality in the 1990s and 2000s, while it has a significant decreasing inequality effect for the upper part of the wage distribution in the more recent time period." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Hensel, Isabell (2020): Genderaspekte von Plattformarbeit. Stand in Forschung und Literatur : Expertise für den Dritten Gleichstellungsbericht der Bundesregierung. (Dritter Gleichstellungsbericht der Bundesregierung), Berlin, 125 S.

Abstract

"Die Vermittlung von lokalen oder virtuellen Dienstleistungen über web-basierte Plattformen, auch Gig-, Cloud-, Crowd- oder Click-Work genannt, gewinnt im Zuge der Digitalisierung zunehmend an Bedeutung. Diese neue Form der Arbeitsorganisation geht mit gravierenden Auswirkungen auf Arbeitsverhältnisse und Beschäftigungsstrukturen einher. Gerade für Frauen verspricht das Geschäftsmodell oftmals zeitlich flexible Arbeit, Wiedereinstiegsmöglichkeiten und Vereinbarkeit. Welche geschlechtsbezogenen Auswirkungen sie tatsächlich haben, ist meist kein Thema. Dabei weist etwa die US-amerikanische Literatur auf zahlreiche Genderaspekte hin, beispielweise unterschiedliche Vergütungen von Frauen und Männern, Zugangsbarrieren, Vereinbarkeitsdruck, sexuelle Belästigung und körperliche Übergriffe oder auch diskriminierende Algorithmen. Die Sachverständigenkommission hat Dr. Isabell Hensel beauftragt, die deutsche und US-amerikanische Literatur zu Gender und Plattformarbeit im Hinblick auf gleichstellungsrelevante Kernthemen auszuwerten. Die nun vorliegende Expertise beantwortet die Frage, welche Genderaspekte im Rahmen von Plattformarbeit thematisiert werden und zeigt gleichstellungsrelevante Chancen und Risiken, Datenlücken und Forschungsbedarf auf. Zudem thematisiert Isabell Hensel zahlreiche gleichstellungsorientierte Handlungsoptionen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Keller, Berndt & Hartmut Seifert (2020): Soziale Risiken der Digitalisierung – Regulierungsbedarfe der Beschäftigungsverhältnisse. In: Industrielle Beziehungen, Jg. 27, H. 2, S. 227-249. DOI:10.3224/indbez.v27i2.07

Abstract

"Der Beitrag behandelt die absehbaren sozialen Risiken der Digitalisierung und unterbreitet eine Reihe von Vorschlägen zur Regulierung der zukünftigen Beschäftigungsverhältnisse. Der erste Teil präsentiert auf der Basis von Projektionen einen Referenzrahmen zur Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes. Danach unterscheiden wir drei Gruppen von sozialen Risiken, die zeitlich gestaffelt werden: kurzfristig Einkommen, mittelfristig Weiterbildung, langfristig Alterssicherung. Im Mittelpunkt stehen die besonders betroffenen Gruppen der (Solo-)Selbstständigen und Plattformbeschäftigten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Krzywdzinski, Martin (2020): Automatisierung, Digitalisierung und Wandel der Beschäftigungsstrukturen in der Automobilindustrie. Eine kurze Geschichte vom Anfang der 1990er bis 2018. (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung. Discussion papers SP 3 2020-302), Berlin, 64 S.

Abstract

"In der gegenwärtigen Diskussion gilt es als sicher, dass wir in einer Zeit rasant fortschreitender Automatisierung leben, die insbesondere durch den Einsatz von Robotern vorangetrieben wird. Die Roboterdichte gilt dementsprechend in vielen Publikationen als der zentrale Indikator der Automatisierung. Die vorliegende Studie stellt diese Argumentation in Frage. Sie untersucht zwei zentrale Fragen: Erstens, welche Ansätze der Automatisierung und Digitalisierung werden in der Automobilindustrie in Deutschland, Japan und den USA verfolgt? Zweitens, wie haben sich die Beschäftigung und ihre Zusammensetzung nach Tätigkeitsgruppen in der Automobilindustrie in den drei Ländern entwickelt? Der erste Teil der Studie fokussiert auf die Entwicklung der Automatisierungs- und Digitalisierungsansätze in der Automobilindustrie seit Anfang der 1990er Jahre bis heute. Er kombiniert eine qualitative Analyse der Fachpresse der Automobilbranche sowie eine quantitative Auswertung der Entwicklung des Roboterbestands von 1993 bis 2018 basierend auf den Statistiken der International Federation of Robotics. Im zweiten Teil der Studie wird der Wandel der Beschäftigungsstrukturen anhand von Berufsstatistiken des Bureau of Labor Statistics (USA), der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (Deutschland) und des Statistics Bureau of Japan untersucht. Die Studie stellt die Wahrnehmung einer automatisierungsbedingten Bedrohung von Beschäftigung und insbesondere von Produktionsbeschäftigung in Frage. Sie diskutiert zugleich die Entwicklungen in Deutschland, Japan und den USA im Vergleich und verdeutlicht Unter-schiede der Automatisierung- und Digitalisierungsansätze sowie auch unterschiedliche Pfade des Wandels von Beschäftigungsstrukturen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Pimminger, Irene & Nadja Bergmann (2020): Gleichstellungsrelevante Aspekte der Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt in Deutschland. Expertise für den Dritten Gleichstellungsbericht der Bundesregierung. (Dritter Gleichstellungsbericht der Bundesregierung), Berlin, 56 S.

Abstract

"Die Digitalisierung verändert die Arbeitswelt. Wie diese Veränderungen konkret aussehen, ist gut erforscht und durch zahlreiche Studien belegt. Die Frage, wie sie sich auf die Gleichstellung von Frauen und Männern auswirken, war dagegen lange kein Thema. Doch mittlerweile steigt das wissenschaftliche Interesse: Wie verändern sich die Beschäftigungschancen von Frauen und von Männern insgesamt? Gibt es Erkenntnisse im Hinblick auf Einkommensunterschiede und soziale Sicherung? Sind Veränderungen für die Vereinbarkeit von Beruf und Privatleben zu erwarten? In ihrer Expertise „Gleichstellungsrelevante Aspekte der Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt in Deutschland“ untersuchen Dr. Irene Pimminger von defacto - Sozialwissenschaftliche Forschung und Beratung und Nadja Bergmann von L&R Sozialforschung, inwieweit solche gleichstellungsrelevanten Fragen in der Fach- und Forschungsliteratur zur Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt thematisiert werden. Die Autorinnen diskutieren zudem, ob und wie eine Gender Budgeting Analyse im Feld der Forschungsförderung zu Digitalisierung machbar wäre. Diese sollte ermöglichen, dass finanzielle Mittel gleichstellungsorientiert verteilt und (Forschungs-)Lücken vermieden werden. Nicht zuletzt zeigen Dr. Irene Pimminger und Nadja Bergmann mit ihrer Expertise gleichstellungspolitische Wege auf, um möglichen geschlechtsbezogenen Ungleichgewichten gegenzusteuern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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European Institute for Gender Equality (2020): Gender equality index 2020. Digitalisation and the future of work. (Gender equality index …), Vilnius, 178 S. DOI:10.2839/79077

Abstract

"The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was a wake-up call for gender equality in Europe. It reminded us about everyday gender inequalities in our society that often go unnoticed – from the shortage of men working in the care sector to the reality of violence facing women in abusive relationships. While it will still take time to fully understand the consequences of COVID-19 for gender equality, it’s clear that it poses a serious threat to the fragile achievements made over the past decade. This year, the Index report focuses on the effects of digitalisation on the world of work and the consequences for gender equality. This topic is extremely relevant in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the ways in which the working lives of women and men have been affected by it. New types of jobs and innovative ways of working through online platforms were analysed to gain an understanding of who is doing these jobs and whether they help or hinder gender equality. With a detailed analysis for the EU and each Member State, the Index shows country-level achievements and areas for improvement. More than ever, policymakers need the data that the Index provides. We hope that our findings will help Europe’s leaders to design future solutions that are inclusive and promote gender equality in our post-COVID-19 society." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Abel, Christine, David Voggeser & Verena Vandervelt (2019): Flexibilisierung und Individualisierung in der Vergütung. Zwischen Bewährtem und neuen Lösungen für New Work. In: Personalführung, Jg. 52, H. 9, S. 14-19.

Abstract

"Der Wandel in der Unternehmens- und Arbeitswelt macht auch vor dem Vergütungsmanagement nicht halt. Allein die Frage, wie agile Rollen und sich rasch verändernde Organisationsstrukturen effizient mit einer Funktionsbewertung erfasst werden können, mach dies deutlich. Die Unternehmensberatung hkp/// group ist davon überzeugt, dass weder die Funktionsbewertung obsolet geworden ist noch eine stärkere Differenzierung bei den Festgehältern bereits allerorten besser funktioniert als der individuelle Bonus. Das Cafeteriamodell erlebt dank technischer Möglichkeiten jedenfalls eine Renaissance und mit 'Freedom within a frame' könnten Unternehmen einen Ansatz gefunden haben, Flexibilisierung in der Vergütung aufzulösen." (Autorenreferat, © Bertelsmann Verlag)

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Aepli, Manuel (2019): Technological change and occupation mobility: A task-based approach to horizontal mismatch. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 361), Maastricht, 48 S.

Abstract

"Technological change and its impacts on labour markets are a much-discussed topic in economics. Economists generally assume that new technology penetrating the labour market shifts firms' task demand. Given individuals' acquired and supplied skills, these task demand shifts potentially foster horizontal skill mismatches, e.g. individuals not working in their learned occupations. In this paper, I first analyse the relation between task shifting technological change and individuals' horizontal mismatch incidence. Second, I estimate individuals' mismatch wage penalties triggered by this relation. The present paper proposes an instrumental variable (IV) approach to map this mechanism and to obtain causal estimates on mismatch wage penalties. Applying this empirical strategy yields a wage penalty of roughly 12% for horizontally mismatched individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Barbieri, Laura, Chiara Mussida, Mariacristina Piva & Marco Vivarelli (2019): Testing the employment and skill impact of new technologies. A survey and some methodological issues. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 397), Maastricht, 21 S.

Abstract

"The present technological revolution, characterized by the pervasive and growing presence of robots, automation, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, is going to transform societies and economic systems. However, this is not the first technological revolution humankind has been facing, but it is probably the very first one with such an accelerated diffusion pace involving all the industrial sectors. Studying its mechanisms and consequences (will the world turn into a jobless society or not?), mainly considering the labor market dynamics, is a crucial matter. This paper aims at providing an updated picture of main empirical evidence on the relationship between new technologies and employment both in terms of overall consequences on the number of employees, tasks required, and wage/inequality effect." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Becker, Sebastian (2019): Digitaler Strukturwandel und der Sozialstaat im 21. Jahrhundert. (EU-Monitor), Frankfurt am Main, 32 S.

Abstract

"Die Digitalisierung verspricht große Wohlstandsgewinne, droht jedoch die Ungleichheiten zu erhöhen. Die Folgen einer großen Automatisierungswelle bzw. zunehmend kapitalintensiveren Produktion wären ein Rückgang der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Lohnquote und steigende Unternehmens- und Vermögenseinkommen. Unsere Szenario-Analyse für die EU-Staaten zeigt, dass die europäischen Sozialstaaten bei einem automatisierungsbedingten Beschäftigungsrückgang im Durchschnitt mit einer deutlichen Finanzierungslücke zu kämpfen hätten. Angesichts der ungewissen Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf die Arbeitsnachfrage und die Staatsfinanzen sollten Staat und Gesellschaft vorsorgen, u.a. über eine Stärkung der Bildungspolitik und eine Anpassung des internationalen Steuersystems an die Begebenheiten des 21. Jahrhunderts, insbesondere im Bereich der Unternehmensbesteuerung." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Cantarella, Michele & Chiara Strozzi (2019): Workers in the crowd: The labour market impact of the online platform economy. (IZA discussion paper 12327), Bonn, 43 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, we compare wages and labor market conditions of individuals engaged in online platform work and in traditional occupations by exploiting individual-level survey data on crowdworkers belonging to the largest micro-task marketplaces, focusing on evidence from the United States and Europe. To match similar individuals, survey responses of crowdworkers from the US and EU have been harmonised with the American Working Conditions Survey (AWCS) and the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS). Our findings indicate that traditional workers retain a significant premium in their earnings with respect to online platform workers, and that those differences are not affected by the observed and unobserved ability of individuals. This holds true also taking into account similar levels of routine intensity and abstractness in their jobs, as well as the time spent working. Moreover, labour force in crowdworking arrangements appears to suffer from high levels of under-utilisation, with crowdworkers being more likely to be left wanting for more work than comparable individuals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Caselli, Francesco & Alan Manning (2019): Robot arithmetic: New technology and wages. In: American economic review. Insights, Jg. 1, H. 1, S. 1-12. DOI:10.1257/aeri.20170036

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Cook, Cody, Rebecca Diamond & Paul Oyer (2019): Older workers and the gig economy. In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 109, S. 372-376. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20191042

Abstract

"As the workforce ages, how will the work lives of older people evolve? One way to ease into retirement is to move to the gig economy where workers choose hours and intensity of work that fit their needs and capabilities. However, older workers are often reaping the benefits of the latter end of an implicit contract while gig economy workers are paid their marginal product. We show that age/earnings profiles in the traditional labor market are different than for Uber drivers. While the move to the gig economy generates flexibility, older workers are paid less than their younger coworkers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dosi, G., M. Piva, M. E. Virgillito & M. Vivarelli (2019): Technology and employment in a vertically connected economy. A model and an empirical test. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 355), Maastricht, 28 S.

Abstract

"This paper addresses, both theoretically and empirically, the sectoral patterns of job creation and job destruction in order to distinguish the alternative effects of embodied vs disembodied technological change operating into a vertically connected economy. Disembodied technological change turns out to positively affect employment dynamics in the 'upstream'' sectors, while expansionary investment does so in the 'downstream'' industries. Conversely, the replacement of obsolete capital vintages tends to exert a negative impact on labour demand, although this effect turns out to be statistically less robust." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ellmer, Markus, Benjamin Herr, Dominik Klaus & Thomas Gegenhuber (2019): Platform workers centre stage! Taking stock of current debates and approaches for improving the conditions of platform work in Europe. (Hans-Böckler-Stiftung. Working paper Forschungsförderung 140), Düsseldorf, 74 S.

Abstract

"A growing body of literature seeks to understand the conditions and consequences of platform work for platform workers and society at large. This study takes stock of current literature on platform work in Europe, discerns central debates (terms and definitions, relevance and diffusion, worker motivations and working conditions) and synthesizes knowledge on approaches for improving platform worker's conditions at different levels (worker, platform and regulatory level)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Genz, Sabrina, Markus Janser & Florian Lehmer (2019): The impact of investments in new digital technologies on wages - worker-level evidence from Germany. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 239, H. 3, S. 483-521., 2019-04-03. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2017-0161

Abstract

"The strong rise of digitalization, automation, machine learning and other related new digital technologies has led to an intense debate about their societal impacts. The transitions of occupations and the effects on labor demand and workers' wages are still open questions. Research projects dealing with this issue often face a lack of data on the usage of new digital technologies. This paper uses a novel linked employer - employee data set that contains detailed information on establishments' technological upgrading between 2011 and 2016, a recent period of rapid technological progress. Furthermore, we are the first to develop a digital tools index based on the German expert database BERUFENET. The new index contains detailed information on the work equipment that is used by workers. Hence, we observe the degree of digitalization on both the establishment level and the worker level. The data allow us to investigate the impact of technology investments on the wage growth of employees within establishments. Overall, the results from individual level fixed effects estimates suggest that investments in new digital technologies at the establishment level positively affect the wages of the establishments' workers. Sector-specific results show that investments in new digital technologies increase wages in knowledge intensive production establishments and non-knowledge intensive services. The wage growth effects of employees in digital pioneer establishments relative to the specific reference group of workers in digital latecomer establishments are most pronounced for low- and medium-skilled workers." (Author's abstract, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Gómez-Plana, Antonio G. & María C. Latorre (2019): Digitalization, multinationals and employment: An empirical analysis of their causal relationships. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 239, H. 3, S. 399-439. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2017-0153

Abstract

"This study measures the effects of digitalization related to Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) investment on employment and other economic variables according to firms' ownership. We present two computable general equilibrium models (with full employment and with unemployment) which differentiate two types of firms: National and foreign multinationals (MNEs). Both types of firms allow for the substitution between labour and ICT capital. We conclude that ICT investments significantly create jobs and raise real wages, GDP and welfare. The aggregate positive effects are stronger for ICT investment in national firms than in foreign MNEs although the sign of some sectoral effects can be negative. We also analyze the role of wage flexibility in this context, with the most favorable results related to scenarios where wages are more rigid for both cases, when investors are national firms or foreign MNEs. The model is applied to the case of Spain, a country with a high unemployment rate where ICT investment has been large since the mid 1990s." (Author's abstract, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Knobloch, Ulrike & Gesine Stephan (2019): Bericht von der 17. efas-Fachtagung "Gestalten oder gestaltet werden? Perspektiven feministischer Ökonomie auf Digitalisierung". Berlin, o. Sz.

Abstract

"Am 6. Dezember 2019 diskutierten die 80 Teilnehmerinnen und Teilnehmer der 17. efas-Fachtagung an der Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft (HTW) Berlin zum Tagungsthema 'Gestalten oder gestaltet werden? Perspektiven feministischer Ökonomie auf Digitalisierung'" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Koustas, Dmitri K. (2019): What do big data tell us about why people take gig economy jobs? In: AEA papers and proceedings, Jg. 109, S. 367-371. DOI:10.1257/pandp.20191041

Abstract

"The gig economy is widely regarded to be a source of secondary or temporary income, but little is known about economic activity outside of the gig economy. Using data from a large, online personal finance application, I document the evolution of non-gig income and household balance sheets surrounding the participation decision for gig economy jobs. This simple analysis reveals striking pretrends in income and assets. In addition to providing insight into the reasons why households enter the gig economy, these findings have potentially important implications for the external validity of previous studies focusing on gig economy activity only." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mönnig, Anke, Tobias Maier & Gerd Zika (2019): Economy 4.0 - Digitalisation and its effect on wage inequality. In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, Jg. 239, H. 3, S. 363-398., 2019-02-01. DOI:10.1515/jbnst-2017-0151

Abstract

"This paper contributes to the discussion of the impact of digital transformation on labour markets by analysing the impact on wage inequality. The novelty of this paper is on the one hand the quantitative approach that applies a macroeconometric input-output model which accounts for circular flow in the economy and feedback loops. Most of the studies on wage inequality and digital transformation focus on ex-post analysis. The applied quantitative model used in this paper also allows to perform ex-ante analysis. This is important, as economy 4.0 is not yet reflected in current datasets which makes statements about the impact of economy 4.0 on wage inequality on basis of ex-post analysis difficult.
On the other hand, it uses the inequality measures S80/S20 that has been applied to a unique dataset on employment and wages. The dataset differentiates on industry and occupational level. That allows to identify industry*occupation combination and their location in the upper and/or lower 20 % share ratio of wage distribution. The analysis demonstrates that digital transformation increases wage inequality, however to a low extent. The increase in wage inequality is already implemented in the reference scenario due to structural and demographic change. Digital transformation strengthens the impact of structural change on wage inequality. Especially in the long run, wage inequality rises stronger than in the reference scenario.
Because the digital transformation scenario does not confirm the polarization hypothesis, the impact of economy 4.0 on wage inequality remains rather low. The increasing demand of high-skilled employees is reflected in an increase in wage inequality. However, the relatively low impact of digitalisation on low-skilled employees prevents a stronger increase in wage inequality." (Author's abstract, © De Gruyter) ((en))

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Mönnig, Anke, Gerd Zika & Tobias Maier (2019): Wirtschaft 4.0 - Wachstumspotenziale bei gleichzeitig steigender Lohnungleichheit? In: B. Kohlrausch, C. Schildmann & D. Voss (Hrsg.) (2019): Neue Arbeit - neue Ungleichheiten? : Folgen der Digitalisierung, S. 110-141.

Abstract

Im Fokus des Beitrags stehen zum einen das Wachstumspotenzial der digitalen Transformation, zum anderen ihre Auswirkungen auf die Lohnverteilung. Für die Analyse verwenden die Autoren ein Kreislaufmodell, das neben der interindustriellen Verflechtung der Wirtschaft auch die Einkommensentstehung, -verwendung und -umverteilung berücksichtigt. 'Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die digitale Transformation zwar einerseits zu positiven Wachstumseffekten führt, andererseits aber die Lohnungleichheit verstärkt. Da das allgemeine Lohnniveau steigt, ist die Lohnungleichheit aber hauptsächlich auf einen stärker steigenden Lohn im oberen Verteilungsspektrum zurückzuführen.' (IAB)

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Ohlert, Clemens & Pauline Boos (2019): Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung auf Geschlechterungleichheiten. Eine empirische Untersuchung auf der Branchenebene. (Discussion papers des Harriet Taylor Mill-Instituts für Ökonomie und Geschlechterforschung der Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Recht Berlin 39), Berlin, 22 S.

Abstract

"Ausgehend von der bisherigen Debatte um die Genderaspekte der Digitalisierung der Arbeit betonen wir eine „digitale Arbeitsmarktsegregation“ als mögliche Ursache für Geschlechterungleichheiten und untersuchen diese empirisch. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Frauen seltener in Branchen und Betrieben mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad beschäftigt sind als Männer und dass diese Segregation in den letzten Jahren zunahm. Die Unterrepräsentation von Frauen in Branchen mit hohem Digitalisierungsgrad geht mit Nachteilen bei den Verdiensten einher. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass der Gender Pay Gap in Branchen mit intensiver Nutzung digitaler Technologien tendenziell größer ist und über die Zeit weniger zurückging als in Branchen, in denen diese Technologien weniger genutzt werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Parolin, Zachary (2019): Automation and occupational wage trends. What role for unions and collective bargaining? (OECD social, employment and migration working papers 228), Paris, 48 S. DOI:10.1787/596b32ce-en

Abstract

"Routine-biased technological change has emerged as a leading explanation for the differential wage growth of routine occupations, such as manufacturers or office clerks, relative to less routine occupations. Less clear, however, is how the effects of technological advancement on occupational wage trends vary across political-institutional context. This paper investigates the extent to which collective bargaining agreements and union coverage shape the relative wage growth of automatable occupations. Using data from the Luxembourg Income Study and the United States Current Population Survey, I measure the 'routine task intensity' of occupations across 15 OECD Member States and the 50 United States from the 1980s onward. Findings suggest that bargaining coverage is more consequential for the wage growth of high routine occupations relative to less routine occupations, and that high routine occupations lose coverage at a faster rate when bargaining coverage at the national level declines. As a result, declines in bargaining coverage within a country are associated with declining relative wage growth for automatable occupations. Estimates suggest that had union coverage in the United States not declined from 1984 levels, the earnings of high routine occupations might have grown at the same rate as low pay occupations between 1984 and 2015, rather than experiencing a relative wage decline. However, the findings also suggest that gains in the relative wage growth may increasingly come at the cost of reduced employment shares of automatable occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schmidpeter, Bernhard & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer (2019): Automation, offshoring and the role of public policies. (Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre Linz. Arbeitspapier 1914), Linz, 10 S.

Abstract

"We provide comprehensive evidence on the consequences of automation and offshoreability on the labor market career of unemployed workers. Using almost two decades of administrative data for Austria, we find that risk of automation is reducing the job finding probability; a problem which has increased over the past years. We show that this development is associated with increasing re-employment wages and job stability. For workers in occupations at risk of being offshored we find the opposite effect. Our results imply a trade-off between quantity and quality in these jobs. Provided training is in general beneficial for workers in automation-related jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Terzidis, Nikos, Steven Brakman & Raquel Ortega-Argiles (2019): Labour markets, trade and technological progress: A meta-study. (CESifo working paper 7719), München, 47 S.

Abstract

"Technological progress and trade potentially affect wages and employment. Technological progress can make jobs obsolete and trade can increase unemployment in import competing sectors. Empirical evidence suggests that both causes are important to explain recent labour market developments in many OECD countries. Both causes are often mentioned in tandem, but the relative contribution of each cause is less clear. This study presents a meta-analysis to shed light on the relative contribution of technological progress and trade in recent labour market developments and allows us to identify the winners and losers of automation and globalization. Using a sample of 77 studies and 1158 estimates, we find that both effects are important. Automation is beneficial at the firm level, and is more likely to displace low-skilled employment. Trade is more likely to benefit high-skilled employment and affects industry negatively. Somewhat surprisingly, given the consensus in the literature, automation has a positive effect for estimates considering the period before 1995, and trade a negative effect. We also find some evidence of publication biases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Webb, Michael (2019): The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market. (SSRN papers), Rochester, NY, 60 S. DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3482150

Abstract

"I develop a new method to predict the impacts of a technology on occupations. I use the overlap between the text of job task descriptions and the text of patents to construct a measure of the exposure of tasks to automation. I first apply the method to historical cases such as software and industrial robots. I establish that occupations I measure as highly exposed to previous automation technologies saw declines in employment and wages over the relevant periods. I use the fitted parameters from the case studies to predict the impacts of artificial intelligence. I find that, in contrast to software and robots, AI is directed at high-skilled tasks. Under the assumption that the historical pattern of long-run substitution will continue, I estimate that AI will reduce 90:10 wage inequality, but will not affect the top 1%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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de Pinto, Marco & Laszlo Goerke (2019): Efficiency wages in Cournot-oligopoly. (IZA discussion paper 12351), Bonn, 26 S.

Abstract

"In a Cournot-oligopoly with free but costly entry and business stealing, output per firm is too low and the number of competitors excessive, assuming labor productivity to depend on the number of employees only or to be constant. However, a firm can raise the productivity of its workforce by paying higher wages. We show that such efficiency wages accentuate the distortions occurring in oligopoly. Specifically, excessive entry is aggravated and the welfare loss due to market power rises." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (2019): Soziale Auswirkungen von Arbeit 4.0 auf Frauen und die Geschlechtergerechtigkeit. Antwort der Bundesregierung auf die Kleine Anfrage der Abgeordneten und der Fraktion DIE LINKE (Drucksache 19/7204). (Verhandlungen des Deutschen Bundestages. Drucksachen 19/7925 (20.02.2019)), 105 S.

Abstract

Die kleine Anfrage zu den sozialen Auswirkungen von Arbeit 4.0 auf Frauen und die Geschlechtergerechtigkeit betrifft zunächst Unterschiede des Umfangs der Wochenarbeitszeiten, der Arbeitszeitgestaltung, des durchschnittlichen Arbeitsbruttoeinkommens von Frauen und Männern sowie die zunehmende Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen durch die Übernahme von Haus- und Sorgearbeit durch Migrantinnen aus Osteuropa. Wo möglich, werden zur Beantwortung Daten des Betriebs-Historik-Panels 1975 bis 2017 (BHP) genutzt, zur Darstellung der durchschnittlichen wöchentlichen Arbeitszeiten Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes auf Basis des Mikrozensus herangezogen. Fragen nach berufsqualifizierenden Maßnahme der Bundesagentur für Arbeit bzw. der Jobcenter (ab 2005) werden mithilfe der Förderstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit beantwortet. Bei den Fragen nach Branchen, Berufen bzw. Tätigkeitsfeldern, die besonders durch die Digitalisierung profitieren, wird auf die im Rahmen der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen ('QuBe-Projekt', www.qube-projekt. de) gerechneten Wirtschaft 4.0-Szenarien verwiesen. Bezogen auf die Umsätze zeigt das Wirtschaft 4.0-Szenario, dass von der Digitalisierung vor allem die Branchen IT- und Informationsdienstleister, Herstellung von Kraftwagen und Kraftwagenteilen, Grundstücks- und Wohnungswesen, Herstellung von DV-Geräten, elektronischen und optischen Erzeugnissen sowie Einzelhandel (ohne Handel mit Kfz) profitieren werden. Auf mehrere Fragen nach geschlechtsspezifischer Verteilung kann wegen der Datenlage nicht geantwortet werden, bei Fragen nach Clickworking, Crowdsourcing etc. wird auf Antworten auf frühere Anfragen und die entsprechenden Bundestagsdrucksachen verwiesen. (IAB)

Abstract

"This report documents how the ongoing digital transformation is affecting people's lives across the 11 key dimensions that make up the How's Life? Well-being Framework (Income and wealth, Jobs and earnings, Housing, Health status, Education and skills, Work-life balance, Civic engagement and governance, Social connections, Environmental quality, Personal security, and Subjective well-being). A summary of existing studies highlights 39 key impacts of the digital transformation on people's well-being. The review shows that these impacts can be positive as digital technologies expand the boundaries of information availability and enhance human productivity, but can also imply risks for people's well-being, ranging from cyber-bullying to the emergence of disinformation or cyber-hacking. In sum, making digitalisation work for people's well-being would require building equal digital opportunities, widespread digital literacy and strong digital security. Continued research and efforts in improving statistical frameworks will be needed to expand our knowledge on the many topics covered in this report." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"An overview of the report is presented in the graph on page 15. Going left to right, the figure shows interconnected 'trends': digitalisation, globalisation, the rising diversity of work arrangements and aging workforce. These trends have 'implications' for labour markets. They include rising inequality, changing business models, job displacement, workers' skill depreciation and rising skill gaps. There are 'challenges' for policymakers from the implications. At the level of workers and human resource policies, these challenges mainly relate to workers' skills to keep people employable in the future. At the level of businesses and labour relations, the challenge is to provide decent work by creating high-quality jobs and safeguarding worker well-being and a healthy work-life balance. Finally, at the most aggregate level of markets and their institutions, the challenge is to build a more inclusive society by preventing economic and social polarisation in labour markets. The figure further shows 'policies' with specific innovative policy recommendations that result from these challenges2. Our policy recommendations are structured under three main categories: 'a skilled work-force'; 'new labour relations' and 'a new social contract'." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2018): Artificial intelligence, automation and work. (NBER working paper 24196), Cambrige, Mass., 41 S. DOI:10.3386/w24196

Abstract

"We summarize a framework for the study of the implications of automation and AI on the demand for labor, wages, and employment. Our task-based framework emphasizes the displacement effect that automation creates as machines and AI replace labor in tasks that it used to perform. This displacement effect tends to reduce the demand for labor and wages. But it is counteracted by a productivity effect, resulting from the cost savings generated by automation, which increase the demand for labor in non-automated tasks. The productivity effect is complemented by additional capital accumulation and the deepening of automation (improvements of existing machinery), both of which further increase the demand for labor. These countervailing effects are incomplete. Even when they are strong, automation in- creases output per worker more than wages and reduce the share of labor in national income. The more powerful countervailing force against automation is the creation of new labor-intensive tasks, which reinstates labor in new activities and tends to increase the labor share to counterbalance the impact of automation. Our framework also highlights the constraints and imperfections that slow down the adjustment of the economy and the labor market to automation and weaken the resulting productivity gains from this transformation: a mismatch between the skill requirements of new technologies, and the possibility that automation is being introduced at an excessive rate, possibly at the expense of other productivity-enhancing technologies." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn (2018): Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit. Makroökonomische Auswirkungen auf Beschäftigung, Arbeitslosigkeit und Löhne von morgen. Mannheim, VIII, 134 S.

Abstract

"In der öffentlichen Debatte werden vor dem Hintergrund von Studien zur Automatisierbarkeit von Berufen immer wieder Stimmen laut, dass Industrie 4.0 und Digitalisierung massive Jobverluste nach sich ziehen könnten. Der lange Weg von der Entwicklung neuer Technologien in die betriebliche Praxis wird dabei oftmals ebenso vernachlässigt, wie die vielfältigen makroökonomischen Anpassungsprozesse, die möglichen arbeitsplatzsparenden Effekten neuer Technologien entgegenwirken. Vor diesem Hintergrund analysiert das vorliegende Gutachten die Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung sowohl der Industrie als auch des Dienstleistungssektors auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt. Zu diesem Zweck haben wir zum einen eine mit den Sozialversicherungsdaten verknüpfte Betriebsbefragung durchgeführt, um den tatsächlichen und zukünftig geplanten Einsatz neuer Technologien am aktuellen Rand zu erheben. Zum anderen haben wir ein strukturelles Modell entwickelt, mit dem wir die Auswirkungen der tatsächlichen und zukünftig geplanten technologischen Investitionen auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt für die jüngere Vergangenheit abschätzen und für die nähere Zukunft simulieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Aubert-Tarby, Clémence, Octavio R. Escobar & Thierry Rayna (2018): The impact of technological change on employment. The case of press digitisation. In: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Jg. 128, H. March, S. 36-45. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.015

Abstract

"Based on an exhaustive dataset of all journalists in France, this article investigates the impact of digitisation on the employment of journalists in the press industry. In particular, focus is put on the effect played by the level of digitisation of newspapers and magazines, some of which have resisted digitisation, while others have embraced it. We find that greater levels of digitisation tend to increase the likelihood of job creation and reduce the probability of job destruction. Likewise, higher level of digitisation leads, on average, to higher earnings for journalists. At the same time, though, higher digitisation also increases sharply the likelihood that jobs created are of casual contractual natures, as opposed to regular permanent contracts. Yet, we find that digitisation also has a positive impact on the earnings of journalists on a casual contact (though, far less than for 'tenured' journalists). More surprisingly, we show that digitisation also reduces job instability of those journalists on a casual contract, as a greater level of digitisation reduces the likelihood of job destruction, even for casual jobs. Though, while digitisation tends to change the contractual nature of job created, embracing digitisation appears to be a 'lesser evil' than resisting technological change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Aum, Sangmin, Sang Yoon Tim Lee & Yongseok Shin (2018): Computerizing industries and routinizing jobs. Explaining trends in aggregate productivity. (NBER working paper 24537), Cambrige, Mass., 36 S. DOI:10.3386/w24357

Abstract

"Aggregate productivity growth in the U.S. has slowed down since the 2000s. We quantify the importance of differential productivity growth across occupations and across industries, and the rise of computers since the 1980s, for the productivity slowdown. Complementarity across occupations and industries in production shrinks the relative size of those with high productivity growth, reducing their contributions toward aggregate productivity growth, resulting in its slowdown. We find that such a force, especially the shrinkage of occupations with above-average productivity growth through 'routinization,' was present since the 1980s. Through the end of the 1990s, this force was countervailed by the extraordinarily high productivity growth in the computer industry, of which output became an increasingly more important input in all industries ('computerization'). It was only when the computer industry's productivity growth slowed down in the 2000s that the negative effect of routinization on aggregate productivity became apparent. We also show that the decline in the labor income share can be attributed to computerization, which substitutes labor across all industries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Autor, David & Anna Salomons (2018): Is automation labor-displacing? Productivity growth, employment, and the labor share. (NBER working paper 24871), Cambrige, Mass., 73 S. DOI:10.3386/w24871

Abstract

"Many technological innovations replace workers with machines, but this capital-labor substitution need not reduce aggregate labor demand because it simultaneously induces four countervailing responses: own-industry output effects; cross-industry input - output effects; between-industry shifts; and final demand effects. We quantify these channels using four decades of harmonized cross-country and industry data, where we measure automation as industry-level movements in total factor productivity (TFP) that are common across countries. We find that automation displaces employment and reduces labor's share of value-added in the industries in which it originates (a direct effect). In the case of employment, these own-industry losses are reversed by indirect gains in customer industries and induced increases in aggregate demand. By contrast, own-industry labor share losses are not recouped elsewhere. Our framework can account for a substantial fraction of the reallocation of employment across industries and the aggregate fall in the labor share over the last three decades. It does not, however, explain why the labor share fell more rapidly during the 2000s" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Autor, David & Anna Salomons (2018): Is automation labor share-displacing? Productivity growth, employment, and the labor share. In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity H. Spring, S. 1-87.

Abstract

"Is automation a labor-displacing force? This possibility is both an age-old concern and at the heart of a new theoretical literature considering how labor immiseration may result from a wave of 'brilliant machines,' which is in part motivated by declining labor shares in many developed countries. Comprehensive evidence on this labor-displacing channel is at present limited. Using the recent model of Acemoglu and Restrepo (2018b) as an analytical frame, we first outline the various channels through which automation impacts labor┐s share of output. We then turn to empirically estimating the employment and labor share impacts of productivity growth - an omnibus measure of technological change - using data on 28 industries for 18 OECD countries since 1970. Our main findings are that although automation - whether measured by Total Factor Productivity growth or instrumented by foreign patent flows or robot adoption - has not been employment-displacing, it has reduced labor's share in value-added. We disentangle the channels through which these impacts occur, including: own-industry effects, cross-industry input-output linkages, and final demand effects accruing through the contribution of each industry's productivity growth to aggregate incomes. Our estimates indicate that the labor share-displacing effects of productivity growth, which were essentially absent in the 1970s, have become more pronounced over time, and are most substantial in the 2000s. This finding is consistent with automation having become in recent decades less labor-augmenting and more labor-displacing." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bessen, James (2018): AI and Jobs: the role of demand. (NBER working paper 24235), Cambrige, Mass., 26 S. DOI:10.3386/w24235

Abstract

"Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies will automate many jobs, but the effect on employment is not obvious. In manufacturing, technology has sharply reduced jobs in recent decades. But before that, for over a century, employment grew, even in industries experiencing rapid technological change. What changed? Demand was highly elastic at first and then became inelastic. The effect of artificial intelligence on jobs will similarly depend critically on the nature of demand. This paper presents a simple model of demand that accurately predicts the rise and fall of employment in the textile, steel and automotive industries. This model provides a useful framework for exploring how AI is likely to affect jobs over the next 10 or 20 years." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Chau, Nancy H. & Ravi Kanbur (2018): Employer power, labor saving technical change, and inequality. (IZA discussion paper 11519), Bonn, 22 S.

Abstract

"How does employer power mediate the impact of labor saving technical change on inequality? This question has largely been neglected in the recent literature on the wage and distributional consequences of automation, where the labor market is assumed to be competitive. In a simple task-based model, with search frictions which generate an equilibrium wage distribution even with identical firms and workers, we explore the implications of labor saving technical change for equilibrium outcomes. We show that employer power is a crucial determinant of the nuanced comparative statics of technical change. Among a range of results, we show the possibility of Kuznetsian inverse-U relationships between employer power and inequality, and labor saving technical change and inequality. We further show that when employer power is sufficiently low, labor saving technical change can both increase total output and increase wage inequality. With free entry of firms, labor saving technical change leads to both a first order dominating shift in the age distribution and an increase in the Gini coefficient of wage inequality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dube, Arindrajit, Jeff Jacobs, Suresh Naidu & Siddharth Suri (2018): Monopsony in online labor markets. (NBER working paper 24416), Cambrige, Mass., 30 S. DOI:10.3386/w24416

Abstract

"On-demand labor platforms make up a large part of the 'gig economy.' We quantify the extent of monopsony power in one of the largest on-demand labor platforms, Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk), by measuring the elasticity of labor supply facing the requester (employer) using both observational and experimental variation in wages. We isolate plausibly exogenous variation in rewards using a double-machine-learning estimator applied to a large dataset of scraped MTurk tasks. We also re-analyze data from 5 MTurk experiments that randomized payments to obtain corresponding experimental estimates. Both approaches yield uniformly low labor supply elasticities, around 0.1, with little heterogeneity." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Ederer, Stefan (2018): Makroökonomische Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung. In: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. Monatsberichte, Jg. 91, H. 12, S. 855-862.

Abstract

"Die makroökonomischen Wirkungen der Digitalisierung auf die Beschäftigung hängen von den Auswirkungen auf Produktivität und Investitionen (und damit auf das Wirtschaftswachstum) ab: Steigert die Digitalisierung die Produktivität stärker als das Wachstum, dann sinkt die Beschäftigung und umgekehrt. Zudem beeinflusst die Digitalisierung die Verteilung der Einkommen zwischen den Produktionsfaktoren Kapital und Arbeit einerseits sowie innerhalb der Lohneinkommen andererseits. Die Verteilung der Einkommen hat wiederum Auswirkungen auf Wachstum und Produktivität. Makroökonomische Beschäftigungseffekte können somit nur mittels einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Analyse ermittelt werden, die diese Wirkungskanäle berücksichtigt. Die empirische Evidenz zu den Effekten der zunehmenden Nutzung digitaler Technologien auf Wachstum, Produktivität, Beschäftigung und Verteilung ist bislang allerdings nicht eindeutig." (Autorenreferat, © WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

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Fahning, Ines, Lukas Underwood, Theodor Fock, Simone Witzel, Monika Putzing & Gerda Jasper (2018): Die Erwerbssituation von Frauen in ländlichen Regionen unter dem Einfluss der Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt - FEMDIGIRURAL. Fach- und Endbericht. Neubrandenburg, 156 S.

Abstract

"Digitalisierung ist einer der globalen Megatrends. Er bezeichnet nicht nur den vermehrten Einsatz neuer Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien, sondern er zeichnet sich hinsichtlich seiner besonderen Qualität vor allem durch die Kommunikation und 'Kooperation' zwischen Maschinen und Anlagen aus. Eine der wenigen gesicherten Erkenntnisse im Kontext der Digitalisierung besteht darin, dass sich mit ihr zugleich tiefgreifende Wandlungen in der Wirtschaft und in der Arbeitswelt vollziehen, denn technische Innovationen bewirken zugleich gravierende soziale Innovationen. Die durch die Digitalisierung hervorgerufenen Richtungen der Veränderungen im sozialen Bereich sind derzeit umstritten. In Bezug auf Beschäftigung gehen einige Prognosen von drastischen Beschäftigungseinbußen und deutlichen Verschiebungen in den Beschäftigungsstrukturen aus, andere sagen vorrangig Beschäftigungswachstum vor allem durch die Entstehung neuer Tätigkeitsbereiche und Geschäftsfelder voraus. Umstritten ist auch, wie sich in diesem Prozess die Qualität der Arbeit verändert.
Die Digitalisierung hat inzwischen nicht nur in Metropolregionen bzw. in schnell wachsenden Verdichtungsräumen Fuß gefasst, sondern greift auch in ländlichen Regionen zunehmend um sich. Offen ist dabei, wie der Digitalisierung in einzelnen Branchen insbesondere der ländlichen Wirtschaft voranschreitet und welche Chancen und Risiken dieser Prozess für die Gleichstellung von Frauen und Männern in der Arbeitswelt nach sich zieht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Fischer, Steffen & Jürgen Weißenrieder (2018): Scharfer Blick für gute Leistung. Variable Vergütung - wird mit Industrie 4.0 und Agilität alles anders? In: Personalführung, Jg. 51, H. 7/8, S. 60-63.

Abstract

"In der Fachpresse, auf Symposien und Fachtagungen wird die spannende Diskussion geführt, ob durch die aktuellen und erwarteten Veränderungen in der Arbeitswelt durch die Entwicklung in Richtung Industrie 4.0, andere Erwartungshaltungen der Generationen X/Y und folgende, autonome, agile und flexibel organisierte Projektteams, engere internationale Zusammenarbeit, den gesellschaftlichen Trend zu stärkerer Individualisierung und dem gleichzeitigen rechtspolitischen Trend zu stärkerer Transparenz nicht ganz andere Vergütungslösungen als die bisher praktizierten gefragt sein werden. Die Diskussion ist berechtigt." (Autorenreferat, © Bertelsmann Verlag)

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Pereira, Sonia C. (2018): Job polarization, technological change and routinization. Evidence for Portugal. In: Labour economics, Jg. 51, H. April, S. 317-339. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2018.02.003

Abstract

"This paper studies labor market polarization in Portugal, a country with slow capital accumulation and a low share of highly educated workers. We use firm census data for 1986 - 2007 and uncover polarization in employment and wages in the second half of this period. This mostly appears to be due to technological change. Our results show a sharp increase of both employment and wage premium for abstract tasks relative to routine tasks. In contrast to the existing literature, we separate between routine manual tasks and routine cognitive tasks. We uncover a sharp decline in routine manual employment but the decline in routine cognitive employment is modest and coupled with an increased wage premium that does not appear to be due to worker selection. This latter result is mainly explained by the large expansion of the service sector which employs many workers in routine cognitive-intensive jobs and the likely slower computer capital adoption resulting from the relatively low levels of human capital, by international standards." (Author's abstract, © 2018 Elsevier) ((en))

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Graetz, Georg & Guy Michaels (2018): Robots at work. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 100, H. 5, S. 753-768. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_00754

Abstract

"We analyze for the first time the economic contributions of modern industrial robots, which are flexible, versatile, and autonomous machines. We use novel panel data on robot adoption within industries in seventeen countries from 1993 to 2007 and new instrumental variables that rely on robots' comparative advantage in specific tasks. Our findings suggest that increased robot use contributed approximately 0.36 percentage points to annual labor productivity growth, while at the same time raising total factor productivity and lowering output prices. Our estimates also suggest that robots did not significantly reduce total employment, although they did reduce low-skilled workers' employment share." (Author's abstract, 䗏 MIT Press Journals) ((en))

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Lauder, Hugh, Philip Brown & Sin-Yi Cheung (2018): Fractures in the education-economy relationship. The end of the skill bias technological change research programme? In: Oxford review of economic policy, Jg. 34, H. 3, S. 495-515. DOI:10.1093/oxrep/gry008

Abstract

"This paper undertakes a critical theoretical and empirical analysis of the traditional approach to analysing the education - economy relationship: skill bias technological change theory. It argues that while leading skill bias theorists have sought to address some of the anomalies that the theory confronts, there remain key data patterns that the theory cannot address. We suggest an alternative account that takes a broader political economy perspective." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Marin, Dalia (2018): Global value chains, the rise of the robots and human capital. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 98, H. Sonderheft, S. 46-49. DOI:10.1007/s10273-018-2276-9

Abstract

"This essay examines whether robots will lead to the reshoring of activity from low-wage countries to rich countries, leading to a revival of manufacturing in rich countries. I argue that reshoring will not lead to an employment boom in rich countries, because the brilliant robots are a capital-biased technology, and as such, they potentially replace smart people. As a result, the skill premium - the wage discrepancy between a university graduate and a high school graduate - is declining in Europe. I argue further that the expansion of higher education has been too aggressive in light of the capital bias of digital technology." (Author's abstract, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Mayrhuber, Christine & Julia Bock-Schappelwein (2018): Digitalisierung und soziale Sicherheit. In: Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. Monatsberichte, Jg. 91, H. 12, S. 891-897.

Abstract

"Der Einsatz digitaler Technologien verändert und flexibilisiert Arbeitsabläufe, Arbeitsformen und Entlohnungsstrukturen. Erwerbs- und Einkommensverläufe und damit auch die soziale Absicherung werden für die Betroffenen zunehmend unsicherer. Die Stärkung der Erwerbseinkommen in einkommenszentrierten Systemen und eine Anpassung der Finanzierungsgrundlagen an die neuen Arbeitsmarktentwicklungen sind Fragen, die im Zuge der Digitalisierung verstärkt in den Vordergrund treten." (Autorenreferat, © WIFO - Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung)

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Prettner, Klaus, Niels Geiger & Johannes A. Schwarzer (2018): Die Auswirkungen der Automatisierung auf Wachstum, Beschäftigung und Ungleichheit. In: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 19, H. 2, S. 59-77. DOI:10.1515/pwp-2018-0017

Abstract

"Die Automatisierung ist eines der wichtigsten Phänomene, über die aktuell innerhalb der Wirtschaftswissenschaften und in der breiteren Öffentlichkeit diskutiert wird. Dabei finden sich sehr unterschiedliche Positionen: Pessimisten verweisen auf die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte, wenn Menschen mehr und mehr durch Maschinen ersetzt werden und ihre am Markt angebotene Arbeitsleistung somit obsolet wird. Gleichzeitig gilt die Automatisierung auch als Ursache für einen Anstieg der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichheit. Optimistische Stimmen erinnern an die Entwicklung seit der Industriellen Revolution, die mit hohem Produktivitätswachstum und starken Wohlfahrtssteigerungen durch fortlaufende technologische Veränderungen einherging, ohne dass es langfristig zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit gekommen ist. In diesem Survey präsentieren die Autoren empirische Daten und skizzieren ein einfaches Wachstumsmodell, das einen ersten Einblick in die zu erwartenden ökonomischen Auswirkungen der Automatisierung erlaubt. Anschließend vertiefen und erweitern sie die Ergebnisse unter Bezugnahme auf die aktuelle wissenschaftliche Literatur. Aus den verschiedenen Ansatzpunkten und Überlegungen leiten sie schließlich wirtschaftspolitische Handlungsmöglichkeiten ab und erörtern deren Einschränkungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Reid, Jim, Luke Templeman & Sahil Mahtani (2018): Automatisierung - kein Jobkiller. (Deutsche Bank Research. Konzept 13), Frankfurt am Main, 76 S.

Abstract

"Rund 250 Jahre nach der ersten industriellen Revolution stehen wir offenbar an der Schwelle eines neuen Zeitalters der Automatisierung, das sich durch komplexe Roboter und künstliche Intelligenz auszeichnet. In dieser Ausgabe untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen der kommenden Automatisierungswelle für Arbeitnehmer, Industrie und die Gesellschaft. Unsere Branchenanalysten sind der Ansicht, dass Roboter menschliche Arbeitskräfte voraussichtlich eher unterstützen werden, als diese zu verdrängen, und auch die historische und ökonomische Betrachtungsweise lässt diesen Schluss zu." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Südekum, Jens (2018): Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit: Was ist am Arbeitsmarkt passiert und wie soll die Wirtschaftspolitik reagieren? (IZA Standpunkte 90), Bonn, 31 S.

Abstract

"Digitalisierung und Automatisierung werden nicht zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit führen. Nicht Arbeitslosigkeit, sondern eine stärkere Ungleichheit und stagnierende Reallöhne in der Mitte des Lohnspektrums sind das Problem. Bislang hat der Robotereinsatz die Löhne nur schwach in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Mit dem Vormarsch der künstlichen Intelligenz und anderer digitaler Technologien könnte es aber schlimmer kommen. Wie kann die Wirtschaftspolitik reagieren? Einkommensumverteilung über Steuer- und Transfersysteme oder gar ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen greifen zu kurz. Eine vorbeugende Politik setzt an der Primärverteilung der Markteinkommen an. Priorität haben eine produktivitätsorientierte Lohnpolitik, massive Investitionen in die Wissensinfrastruktur und die Intensivierung der Ausbildung und beruflichen Weiterbildung. Die Politik sollte nicht über Robotersteuern, sondern über Modelle der Mitarbeiterbeteiligung nachdenken. Denn die zentrale Frage der Digitalisierung lautet, wem gehören die Roboter?" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Südekum, Jens (2018): Digitalisierung und die Zukunft der Arbeit. (WPZ Analyse 19), Sankt Gallen, 23 S.

Abstract

"Digitalisierung und Automatisierung werden nicht zu Massenarbeitslosigkeit führen. Nicht Arbeitslosigkeit, sondern eine stärkere Ungleichheit und stagnierende Reallöhne in der Mitte des Lohnspektrums sind das Problem. Bislang hat der Robotereinsatz die Löhne nur schwach in Mitleidenschaft gezogen. Mit dem Vormarsch der künstlichen Intelligenz und anderer digitaler Technologien könnte es aber schlimmer kommen. Wie kann die Wirtschaftspolitik reagieren? Einkommensumverteilung über Steuer- und Transfersysteme oder gar ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen greifen zu kurz. Eine vorbeugende Politik setzt an der Primärverteilung der Markteinkommen an. Priorität haben eine produktivitätsorientierte Lohnpolitik, massive Investitionen in die Wissensinfrastruktur und die Intensivierung der Ausbildung und beruflichen Weiterbildung. Die Politik sollte nicht über Robotersteuern, sondern über Modelle der Mitarbeiterbeteiligung nachdenken. Denn die zentrale Frage der Digitalisierung lautet, wem gehören die Roboter?" (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Thomsen, Stephan L. (2018): Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen. (Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. Diskussionspapier 645), Hannover, 42 S.

Abstract

"Die Entwicklung der Computer und die darauf aufbauende Digitalisierung haben technologische Veränderungen ausgelöst, die die Anforderungen an und die Nachfrage nach Arbeit, aber auch das Arbeitsangebot in den letzten Dekaden stetig verändert haben. Wie groß die kausalen Effekte dieser Entwicklung auf die Einkommens- und Vermögensverteilung sind, ist in der ökonomischen Literatur bisher weder eindeutig, noch abschließend geklärt. Schwierigkeiten in der Bestimmung dieser Effekte haben sich zunächst aus dem unvollständigen Verständnis ergeben, wie die Computerisierung und die Digitalisierung die Wertschöpfung beeinflusst haben bzw. welchen Beitrag sie leisten. Dies hat zugleich zu der grundsätzlichen Frage geführt, inwiefern der technologische Wandel durch die Computerisierung und Digitalisierung mit traditionellen ökonomischen Modellen, die Arbeit, Kapital und technischen Fortschritt in der Regel als trennbare Faktoren unterscheiden und hierbei feste Relationen bzw. proportionale Effekte unterstellen, erfasst werden kann.
Das Verständnis der Bedeutung und Begründung technischen Fortschritts in seinen Wirkungen für Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft ist dabei bereits Gegenstand des wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Denkens in Wealth of Nations von Adam Smith (1776). Die Formulierung des Produktionsprozesses ausgehend von den zu tätigenden Aufgaben, unabhängig ob diese durch menschliche oder maschinelle Arbeit, durch Handel zugekauft oder an einem beliebigen Ort durchgeführt werden, ist dabei grundlegend im ökonomischen Verständnis verankert. Trotz dieser bereits recht alten Überlegungen haben die Computerisierung und die Digitalisierung dazu geführt, dass der durch sie ausgelöste technische Fortschritt sowie insbesondere die implizierten Folgen für Beschäftigung und Löhne in der aktuellen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Literatur nun differenzierter analysiert werden und in den vergangenen zwei Dekaden entsprechende formale Modelle entwickelt worden sind.
Mit dem vorliegenden Aufsatz möchte ich eine Einordnung des technischen Fortschritts durch die Computerisierung und Digitalisierung geben. Hierzu will ich kurz auf die Entwicklungsgeschichte des Computerzeitalters eingehen, um Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede zu anderen Entwicklungen zu identifizieren. Im Anschluss gebe ich einen Überblick über den Erkenntnisstand zu den Effekten auf Einkommen und Beschäftigung auf Grundlage der verfügbaren Literatur, um die Erklärungen und Begründungen zu diskutieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Tyrowicz, Joanna & Magdalena Smyk (2018): Wage inequality and structural change. (IAAEU discussion paper series in economics 2018,01), Trier, 30 S.

Abstract

"Income inequality in the context of large structural change has received a lot of attention in the literature, but most studies relied on household post-transfer inequality measures. This study utilizes a novel and fairly comprehensive collection of micro data sets from between 1980's and 2010 for both advanced market economies and economies undergoing transition from central planning to market based system. We show that wage inequality was initially lower in transition economies and immediately upon the change of the economic system surpassed the levels observed in advanced economies. We find a very weak link between structural change and wages in both advanced and post-transition economies, despite the predictions from skill-biased technological change literature. The decomposition of changes in wage inequality into a part attributable to changes in characteristics (mainly education) and a part attributable to changes in rewards does not yield any leading factors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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vom Lehn, Christian (2018): Understanding the decline in the U.S. labor share. Evidence from occupational tasks. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 108, H. September, S. 191-220. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2018.07.005

Abstract

"In this paper, I provide empirical evidence linking the decline in the labor share to the replacement of occupations with substantial routine task content. Using cross-industry variation, I show that the overall labor share decline is driven by the replacement of occupations specializing in routine tasks. I further find that the accelerated decline in the labor share since 2000 is associated with the replacement of higher skill occupations with substantial routine task content. Finally, I estimate the effects of increased import competition on the labor share decline and how this relates to the replacement of occupational tasks. While increased import competition plays a significant role in explaining the overall labor share decline and works through replacing routine occupations, it cannot account for the accelerated labor share decline and replacement of higher skill occupations post-2000." (Author's abstract, © 2018 Elsevier) ((en))

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Acemoglu, Daron & Pascual Restrepo (2017): Robots and jobs. Evidence from US labor markets. (NBER working paper 23285), Cambrige, Mass., 91 S. DOI:10.3386/w23285

Abstract

"As robots and other computer-assisted technologies take over tasks previously performed by labor, there is increasing concern about the future of jobs and wages. We analyze the effect of the increase in industrial robot usage between 1990 and 2007 on US local labor markets. Using a model in which robots compete against human labor in the production of different tasks, we show that robots may reduce employment and wages, and that the local labor market effects of robots can be estimated by regressing the change in employment and wages on the exposure to robots in each local labor market -- defined from the national penetration of robots into each industry and the local distribution of employment across industries. Using this approach, we estimate large and robust negative effects of robots on employment and wages across commuting zones. We bolster this evidence by showing that the commuting zones most exposed to robots in the post-1990 era do not exhibit any differential trends before 1990. The impact of robots is distinct from the impact of imports from China and Mexico, the decline of routine jobs, offshoring, other types of IT capital, and the total capital stock (in fact, exposure to robots is only weakly correlated with these other variables). According to our estimates, one more robot per thousand workers reduces the employment to population ratio by about 0.18-0.34 percentage points and wages by 0.25-0.5 percent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brynjolfsson, Erik, Daniel Rock & Chad Syverson (2017): Artificial intelligence and the modern productivity paradox. A clash of expectations and statistics. (NBER working paper 24001), Cambrige, Mass., 44 S. DOI:10.3386/w24001

Abstract

"We live in an age of paradox. Systems using artificial intelligence match or surpass human level performance in more and more domains, leveraging rapid advances in other technologies and driving soaring stock prices. Yet measured productivity growth has declined by half over the past decade, and real income has stagnated since the late 1990s for a majority of Americans. We describe four potential explanations for this clash of expectations and statistics: false hopes, mismeasurement, redistribution, and implementation lags. While a case can be made for each, we argue that lags have likely been the biggest contributor to the paradox. The most impressive capabilities of AI, particularly those based on machine learning, have not yet diffused widely. More importantly, like other general purpose technologies, their full effects won't be realized until waves of complementary innovations are developed and implemented. The required adjustment costs, organizational changes, and new skills can be modeled as a kind of intangible capital. A portion of the value of this intangible capital is already reflected in the market value of firms. However, going forward, national statistics could fail to measure the full benefits of the new technologies and some may even have the wrong sign." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dauth, Wolfgang, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens Südekum & Nicole Woessner (2017): The rise of robots in the German labour market. In: VOX H. 18.09.2017, o. Sz.

Abstract

"Recent research has shown that industrial robots have caused severe job and earnings losses in the US. This column explores the impact of robots on the labour market in Germany, which has many more robots than the US and a much larger manufacturing employment share. Robots have had no aggregate effect on German employment, and robot exposure is found to actually increase the chances of workers staying with their original employer. This effect seems to be largely down to efforts of work councils and labour unions, but is also the result of fewer young workers entering manufacturing careers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dauth, Wolfgang, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens Südekum & Nicole Wößner (2017): German robots - the impact of industrial robots on workers. (IAB-Discussion Paper 30/2017), Nürnberg, 62 S.

Abstract

"Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen des Einsatzes von Industrierobotern auf die Erwerbsverläufe einzelner Beschäftigter im verarbeitenden Gewerbe, sowie die Auswirkungen auf lokale Arbeitsmärkte in Deutschland. Wir finden keine Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass Roboter insgesamt zu Jobverlusten führen, allerdings verändern sie die Struktur der Gesamtbeschäftigung. Jeder Roboter verdrängt zwei Jobs im verarbeitenden Gewerbe. Damit tragen Roboter mit etwa 275.000 Jobs zu nahezu 23 Prozent des gesamten Rückgangs der Beschäftigung in diesem Sektor bei. Dieser Rückgang wurde jedoch vollkommen durch zusätzliche Jobs im Dienstleistungssektor kompensiert. Dies geht nicht zu Lasten bereits beschäftigter Personen: Beschäftigte in Branchen, die verstärkt Roboter einsetzen hatten sogar eine höhere Beschäftigungsstabilität bei ihrem ursprünglichen Arbeitgeber. Wir beobachten dagegen einen systematischen Rückgang von Neueinstellungen in diesen Branchen. Die höhere Beschäftigungsstabilität ist oftmals mit geringeren Löhnen verbunden. Vor allem die Löhne von Personen mit Ausbildungsabschluss in Fertigungsberufen geraten durch den Einsatz von Robotern unter Druck. Bei Managern und Ingenieuren sind dagegen steigende Löhne zu verzeichnen. Im Aggregat führen Roboter also zu einem Anstieg der Arbeitsproduktivität, aber nicht zu einem Anstieg der Löhne. Damit tragen sie zum Rückgang der Lohnquote bei." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hutter, Christian & Enzo Weber (2017): Labour market effects of wage inequality and skill-biased technical change in Germany. (IAB-Discussion Paper 05/2017), Nürnberg, 31 S.

Abstract

"Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die Beziehung zwischen Ungleichheit und der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Deutschland seit 1975 näher zu beleuchten. Die wichtigsten Theorien sowie auch die empirische Evidenz sind sich zu diesem Thema nicht einig. Unser strukturelles Vektorfehlerkorrekturmodell modelliert explizit den qualifikationsverzerrenden technologischen Fortschritt als Quelle von Ungleichheit. Mithilfe von nicht-rekursiven Langfristrestriktionen werden die Effekte von Ungleichheitsschocks, qualifikationsverzerrenden (und -neutralen) Technologieschocks auf Arbeitsvolumen, reale Lohnkosten und Produktivität identifiziert. Deskriptive Evidenz zeigt, dass der jahrzehntelange Anstieg der Lohnungleichheit im Jahr 2010 gestoppt wurde und sich sogar umkehrte. Dafür ist hauptsächlich die sinkende Ungleichheit in der unteren Hälfte der Lohnverteilung verantwortlich. Die Impuls-Antwort-Analysen verdeutlichen, dass qualifikationsverzerrende Technologieschocks sich negativ auf das Arbeitsvolumen auswirken, die Lohnungleichheit, Lohnkosten und Produktivität allerdings erhöhen. Ungleichheitsschocks haben ebenfalls einen negativen Effekt auf das Arbeitsvolumen, reduzieren zusätzlich aber die Produktivität." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)