Beschäftigungsstabilität – Jobsicherheit trotz zunehmender Flexibilisierung?
Der Zuwachs flexibler Beschäftigungsformen in den letzten Jahrzehnten hat u.a. die Frage nach der Stabilität von Beschäftigungsverhältnissen aufgeworfen. Die durchschnittliche Dauer der Betriebszugehörigkeit, Daten zur Arbeitskräfte-Fluktuation sowie das Ausmaß befristeter Beschäftigung werden für die Bewertung von Beschäftigungsstabilität herangezogen. Empirische Studien konnten bisher eine Abnahme der Beschäftigungsstabilität im Zeitverlauf nicht bestätigen - allenfalls punktuell und bei bestimmten Qualifikationsstufen.
Diese Infoplattform enthält Literaturhinweise und Volltexte zur theoretischen Einbettung und empirischen Analyse der Stabilität von Beschäftigung.
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Literaturhinweis
Was macht Arbeitgeber attraktiv? (2024)
Bach, Helena; Hammermann, Andrea;Zitatform
Bach, Helena & Andrea Hammermann (2024): Was macht Arbeitgeber attraktiv? (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2024,55), Köln, 3 S.
Abstract
"Die Wahl des Arbeitgebers machen nahezu alle Beschäftigten davon abhängig, wie sicher der Arbeitsplatz ist. Karrieremöglichkeiten sind dagegen nicht für jeden ein Muss. Je nach Alter, Geschlecht oder Qualifikation können sich Arbeitsplatzpräferenzen unterscheiden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Labor Market Concentration, Wages and Job Security in Europe (2024)
Bassanini, Andrea; Popp, Martin ; Falco, Paolo; Oberfichtner, Michael ; Felgueroso, Florentino; Caroli, Eve; Jansen, Marcel; Cingano, Frederico; Bovini, Giulia; Casanova Ferrando, Jorge; Melo, António; Martins, Pedro S. ;Zitatform
Bassanini, Andrea, Giulia Bovini, Eve Caroli, Jorge Casanova Ferrando, Frederico Cingano, Paolo Falco, Florentino Felgueroso, Marcel Jansen, Pedro S. Martins, António Melo, Michael Oberfichtner & Martin Popp (2024): Labor Market Concentration, Wages and Job Security in Europe. In: The Journal of Human Resources, S. 1-54. DOI:10.3368/jhr.0223-12757R1
Abstract
"We leverage administrative linked employer-employee data from six European countries to provide the first comparable cross-country evidence on the impact of labor market concentration on wages and job security. We find strikingly similar and relatively low wage elasticities across countries, but greater elasticities for job security, as measured by contract type. We provide suggestive evidence that the similarity of our wage elasticities and the greater sensitivity of job security to labor market concentration may be explained by the fact that sector-level collective bargaining is dominant in the countries we study and that it sets wages but usually not contract type." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © University of Wisconsin Press) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Employment protection and labour productivity growth in the EU: skill-specific effects during and after the Great Recession (2024)
Zitatform
Fedotenkov, Igor, Virmantas Kvedaras & Miguel Sanchez-Martinez (2024): Employment protection and labour productivity growth in the EU: skill-specific effects during and after the Great Recession. In: Empirica, Jg. 51, H. 1, S. 209-262. DOI:10.1007/s10663-023-09585-w
Abstract
"Does employment protection affect sectoral productivity growth differently during crises and recovery periods? This paper sheds light into this question by investigating the relationship between employment protection legislation (EPL hereafter) and sectoral labor productivity growth in the EU in the context of the Great Recession. We consider the crisis and recovery periods, evaluate the relevance of both levels and changes in EPL for productivity growth, and explore the conditioning role played by sectoral differences in terms of cumulativeness of knowledge as well as the skills of the labor force, captured by different levels of education. We find that stricter labor protection reduces labor productivity growth in sectors with a large share of workers with tertiary education, whereas this effect is negligible or positive in sectors where workers with secondary or only primary education are more prevalent (such as agriculture, mining and quarrying). We attribute this to a more intensive labour hoarding in the former, as EPL strengthens labour hoarding in sectors that rely on firm-specific knowledge accumulation and skilled human capital that are difficult to substitute with physical capital. Whereas it is simple to dismiss (and to find later) unskilled employees. They not only can be substituted more easily with capital, but also the costs of their firing are lower, they are overrepresented among workers holding temporary contracts, and they might be unequally informed and able to exercise their rights. This leads to low (if any) labor hoarding and little impact of EPL on labour productivity in such sectors. We also document that the negative effect is prominent only during the crisis, and an increase in the stringency of EPL over an extended period stimulates employers to substitute labour with investments in physical and knowledge capital." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Organized Labor Versus Robots? Evidence from Micro Data (2024)
Zitatform
Findeisen, Sebastian, Wolfgang Dauth & Oliver Schlenker (2024): Organized Labor Versus Robots? Evidence from Micro Data. (CEPR discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 19192), London, 31 S.
Abstract
"New technologies drive productivity growth but the distribution of gains might be unequal and is mediated by labor market institutions. We study the role that organized labor plays in shielding incumbent workers from the potential negative consequences of automation. Combining German individual-level administrative records with information on plant-level robot adoption and the presence of works councils, a form of shop-floor worker representation, we find positive moderating effects of works councils on retention for incumbent workers during automation events. Separations for workers with replaceable task profiles are significantly reduced. When labor markets are tight and replacement costs are high for firms, incumbent workers become more valuable and the effects of works councils during automation events start to disappear. Older workers, who find it more challenging to reallocate to new employers, benefit the most from organized labor in terms of wages employment. Concerning mechanisms we find that robot-adopting plants with works councils employ not more but higher quality robots. They also provide more training during robot adoption and have higher productivity growth thereafter." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job tenure in Western Europe, 1993–2021: Decline or stability? (2024)
Zitatform
Goulart, Kimberly & Daniel Oesch (2024): Job tenure in Western Europe, 1993–2021: Decline or stability? In: European journal of industrial relations, Jg. 30, H. 3, S. 329-346. DOI:10.1177/09596801241268144
Abstract
"The empirical literature is divided on whether job tenure has declined or remained stable in Europe in recent decades. We argue that three analytical decisions explain the lack of consensus: whether researchers focus on men or women, whether they control for changes in labor market composition and whether the period under study is marked by a recession or a boom. We show the influence of these three decisions by analysing change in job tenure for France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK using two leading surveys: the European Labour Force Survey 1993–2021 and the European Working Conditions Survey 1995–2021. The results show that the share of workers remaining with the same employer for 10 years or more was stable at around 50%. Similarly, the average job tenure remained constant over time – at about 11 years – between 1993 and 2021. Trends in job tenure differ by gender. While the tenure of men remained stable or declined, the tenure of women increased. The stability in job tenure was due to the ageing of the workforce. For a given age, job tenure was shorter in the early 2020s than in the early 1990s." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Losers of representation: Gains and losses of globalization as seen by workers in internationalized companies in the Netherlands (2024)
Hurenkamp, Menno; Dekker, Paul; Tonkens, Evelien;Zitatform
Hurenkamp, Menno, Paul Dekker & Evelien Tonkens (2024): Losers of representation: Gains and losses of globalization as seen by workers in internationalized companies in the Netherlands. In: European Journal of Cultural and Political Sociology, Jg. 11, H. 2, S. 231-254. DOI:10.1080/23254823.2023.2295038
Abstract
"Dichotomisation between winners and losers is a prominent element of the debate on globalization, with ordinary workers often considered losers. However, little is known about what workers make of globalization, how they experience the phenomenon, and how they talk about it. We use a set of focus groups to explore meaning-making on the globalization of the economy among lower-educated employees of Dutch internationalised firms. We find that they weigh up the pros and cons and proudly struggle with the consequences of globalization. To the degree that they feel left behind, it is by politics and government. This suggests that dislike of globalization is the result of negative experiences with politics, rather than the other way around." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job security, asymmetric information, and wage rigidity (2024)
Zitatform
Snell, Andy, Heiko Stüber & Jonathan P. Thomas (2024): Job security, asymmetric information, and wage rigidity. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 161, 2023-10-23. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104622
Abstract
"We consider a labor market with risk averse workers, directed search and asymmetric information in which firms can commit to wage contracts but not to retain workers. The model predicts that in downturns (i) there is equal treatment of incumbents and new hires, (ii) wages are insensitive to the severity of the downturn, (iii) this leads to an amplified employment effect, and (iv) wages are determined by forecasts of labor market conditions rather than actual values. By contrast in upswings, new-hire wages are more attuned to actual conditions than forecasts, whilst incumbent wages remain relatively rigid. We find that these novel predictions are well supported in German administrative data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Temporary Contracts, Employment Trajectories and Dualisation: A Comparison of Norway and Sweden (2023)
Zitatform
Berglund, Tomas, Roy A. Nielsen, Olof Reichenberg & Jørgen Svalund (2023): Temporary Contracts, Employment Trajectories and Dualisation: A Comparison of Norway and Sweden. In: Work, Employment and Society, Jg. 37, H. 2, S. 505-524. DOI:10.1177/09500170211031466
Abstract
"This study compares the labour market trajectories of the temporary employed in Norway with those in Sweden. Sweden’s employment protection legislation gap between the strict protection of permanent employment and the loose regulation of temporary employment has widened in recent decades, while Norway has maintained balanced and strict regulation of both employment types. The study asserts that the two countries differ concerning the distribution of trajectories, leading to permanent employment and trajectories that do not create firmer labour market attachment. Using sequence analysis to analyse two-year panels of the labour force survey for 1997–2011, several different trajectories are discerned in the two countries. The bridge trajectories dominate in Norway, while dead-end trajectories are more common in Sweden. Moreover, the bridge trajectories are selected to stronger categories (mid-aged and higher educated) in Sweden than in Norway. The results are discussed from the perspective of labour market dualisation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Workers' tenure and firm productivity: New evidence from matched employer-employee panel data (2023)
Zitatform
Gagliardi, Nicola, Elena Grinza & François Rycx (2023): Workers' tenure and firm productivity: New evidence from matched employer-employee panel data. In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 62, H. 1, S. 3-33. DOI:10.1111/irel.12309
Abstract
"Using rich longitudinal matched employer-employee data on Belgian firms, we explore the impact of workers’ tenure on firm productivity. To do so, we estimate production functions augmented with firm-level measures of tenure. We deal with the endogeneity of standard inputs and tenure, which arises from unobserved firm heterogeneity and reverse causality, by applying a modified version of Ackerberg et al.’s (2015) control function method, which explicitly removes firm fixed effects. Consistently with recent theoretical predictions, our analyses point to positive, but decreasing, returns to tenure. We also find that the impact differs widely across several firm dimensions. Tenure is particularly beneficial for productivity in contexts characterized by a certain degree of routineness and low job complexity. Along the same lines, our findings indicate that tenure exerts stronger positive impacts in industrial and capital-intensive firms, as well as in firms less reliant on ICT-intensive and knowledge-intensive processes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss (2023)
Jarosch, Gregor;Zitatform
Jarosch, Gregor (2023): Searching for Job Security and the Consequences of Job Loss. In: Econometrica, Jg. 91, H. 3, S. 903-942. DOI:10.3982/ECTA14008
Abstract
"Job loss comes with large present value earnings losses which elude workhorse models of unemployment and labor market policy. I propose a parsimonious model of a frictional labor market in which jobs differ in terms of unemployment risk and workers search off- and on-the-job. This gives rise to a job ladder with slippery bottom rungs where unemployment spells beget unemployment spells. I allow for human capital to respond to time spent out of work and estimate the framework on German Social Security data. The model captures the joint response of wages, employment, and unemployment risk to job loss which I measure empirically. The key driver of the “unemployment scar” is the loss in job security and its interaction with the evolution of human capital and, in particular, the search for better employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Escaping uncertainty through downward mobility? Occupational mobility upon transition to permanent employment in Germany and in Poland (2023)
Zitatform
Kopycka, Katarzyna (2023): Escaping uncertainty through downward mobility? Occupational mobility upon transition to permanent employment in Germany and in Poland. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 83. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2023.100768
Abstract
"Extending existing research on transitions from temporary to permanent employment this article investigates the social mobility dimension of these transitions. Specifically, it asks whether certain individuals experience downward occupational mobility while moving from temporary to permanent employment in the two countries under study, Germany and Poland. The empirical analysis of the employment histories of young individuals until age 35 involves event history modelling using Cox proportional hazards methodology and is conducted on data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (G-SOEP) and the Polish Panel Survey (POLPAN) for the period 2003–2017/2018. In the study, transitions to permanent employment with and without downward occupational mobility are defined as competing events and modeled separately. The analysis reveals that ten per cent and as much as seventeen per cent of moves to permanent employment in Germany and Poland, respectively, are accompanied by a loss in occupational status. A higher prevalence of downward mobility in Poland may result from a weaker welfare state there which is less decommodifying. Furthermore, a low level of individual economic vulnerability decreases the transition rate to permanent employment involving a drop in occupational status. In Poland, the high socioeconomic position of the family of origin deters from changing to an unlimited contract with downward mobility. In Germany, married or partnered individuals who enjoy a high household income bear a lower risk of transitioning to permanent employment with status loss." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The brave new world of unstable jobs hiding in plain sight: A reply to Murphy and Turner (2023)
Zitatform
St-Denis, Xavier (2023): The brave new world of unstable jobs hiding in plain sight: A reply to Murphy and Turner. In: The Journal of Industrial Relations, Jg. 65, H. 5, S. 717-733. DOI:10.1177/00221856231191259
Abstract
"The article Employment stability and decent work published in the Journal of Industrial Relations by Murphy and Turner presents evidence forming the basis of a claim that job instability has not increased in Ireland between 1998 and 2021. This contrasts with a rich literature in industrial relations and the sociology of work and organizations, which documents the fundamental transformation of employment relationships since the 1990s toward greater insecurity. In this response paper, I question the empirical foundations of Murphy and Turner's claims. Analyzing the same data set used in their study, I provide clear evidence that an increase in job instability consistent with the precarious work literature has been hiding in plain sight. I also engage with their efforts at theorizing the nature of the recent transformation of employment relationships in Ireland specifically, and in Liberal Market Economies more broadly. In doing so, I suggest research avenues that go beyond a polarized debate in whether or not job instability has increased in order to contribute to a more complex understanding of contemporary changes in career trajectories." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity (2023)
Zitatform
Tafuro, Andrea (2023): Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity. In: Journal of macroeconomics, Jg. 75. DOI:10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103495
Abstract
"This study provides new evidence on how labour market rigidities affect the transmission of fiscal consolidations using a sample of 17 OECD countries. Owing to a novel empirical approach, the outcomes of consolidations are modelled as a function of employment and wage rigidities. The evidence confirms that tax-based consolidations are distortionary, while expenditure-based consolidations have wealth effects. These effects are then magnified by flexible employment and rigid wages, while they are moderated by rigid employment and flexible wages. This indicates that labour market conditions influence how fiscal consolidation is propagated in the economy by affecting both the magnitude and the transmission channels of consolidation plans. This result has crucial policy implications and suggests that the design of consolidation plans should account for the labour market structure." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Jobunsicherheit: Frauen fühlen sich durch Befristungen deutlich stärker belastet als Männer (2023)
Zitatform
Teichler, Nils & Brigitte Schels (2023): Jobunsicherheit: Frauen fühlen sich durch Befristungen deutlich stärker belastet als Männer. In: IAB-Forum H. 25.09.2023. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20230925.01
Abstract
"Jobunsicherheit und befristete Beschäftigung im Speziellen gehen für Erwerbstätige mit spürbaren Sorgen um den Arbeitsplatz einher und mindern die Lebenszufriedenheit. Allerdings machen sich weibliche Beschäftigte deutlich größere Sorgen um den Arbeitsplatz als männliche, wenn sie befristet beschäftigt sind. Der berufliche Status macht demgegenüber kaum einen Unterschied für die Lebenszufriedenheit, wenn der eigene Arbeitsplatz als unsicher erlebt wird." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
'Stability is a foggy concept': work stability from the perspective of young people with mobility experiences (2023)
Winogrodzka, Dominika;Zitatform
Winogrodzka, Dominika (2023): 'Stability is a foggy concept': work stability from the perspective of young people with mobility experiences. In: Journal of Youth Studies, S. 1-21. DOI:10.1080/13676261.2023.2271843
Abstract
"Currently, substantial attention is being paid to flexibility in the working life of young people. Stability is a conceptual companion of flexibility; however, its role has been vastly underestimated in the literature on working life. The key aim of this article is to explore the processes of meaning-making concerning work stability among young people with mobility experiences. Focusing on the intersection between career studies, mobility studies, and youth studies, the aim is to answer the following research questions. (1) How do young people with mobility experiences perceive stability in the context of the labour market? (2) What are the roles of spatial mobility and previous work experience in the perception of work stability? Based on qualitative data, the process of defining, redefining, questioning and denying the concept of work stability is discussed, showing that this process is subject to continuous verification and re-evaluation based on previous work experiences." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Pennies from Haven: Wages and Profit Shifting (2022)
Alstadsæter, Annette; Davies, Ronald B.; Scheuerer, Johannes; Bjørkheim, Julie Brun;Zitatform
Alstadsæter, Annette, Julie Brun Bjørkheim, Ronald B. Davies & Johannes Scheuerer (2022): Pennies from Haven: Wages and Profit Shifting. (CESifo working paper 9590), München, 42 S.
Abstract
"Increasing attention has been given to the fact that some multinational enterprises shift income to tax haven countries, an activity that generates inequality in corporate taxation. Here, we examine how profit shifting relates to wage inequality. Using rich matched employer-employee data from Norway, we find that profit-shifting firms pay higher wages, particularly among service firms where the wage premium is approximately 2%. Furthermore, this average effect masks significant within-firm heterogeneity with high-skill occupations – and managers in particular – earning higher shifting wage premiums. CEOs particularly gain, with their wages rising nearly 10%. These results thus suggest that profit shifting by multinationals meaningfully contributes to wage inequality, both between and within firms. Finally, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest these higher wages would generate additional income tax revenues which would offset around 3% of the fall in Norway’s corporate tax revenues due to profit shifting." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labour Market Concentration, Wages and Job Security in Europe (2022)
Bassanini, Andrea; Bovini, Giulia; Felgueroso, Florentino; Caroli, Eve; Jansen, Marcel; Casanova Ferrando, Jorge; Martins, Pedro S. ; Falco, Paolo; Melo, António; Cingano, Frederico; Oberfichtner, Michael ; Popp, Martin ;Zitatform
Bassanini, Andrea, Giulia Bovini, Eve Caroli, Jorge Casanova Ferrando, Frederico Cingano, Paolo Falco, Florentino Felgueroso, Marcel Jansen, Pedro S. Martins, António Melo, Michael Oberfichtner & Martin Popp (2022): Labour Market Concentration, Wages and Job Security in Europe. (IZA discussion paper 15231), Bonn, 54 S.
Abstract
"We investigate the impact of labour market concentration on two dimensions of job quality, namely wages and job security. We leverage rich administrative linked employer-employee data from Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain in the 2010s to provide the first comparable cross-country evidence in the literature. Controlling for productivity and local product market concentration, we show that the elasticities of wages with respect to labour market concentration are strikingly similar across countries: increasing labour market concentration by 10% reduces wages by 0.19% in Germany, 0.22% in France, 0.25% in Portugal and 0.29% in Denmark. Regarding job security, we find that an increase in labour market concentration by 10% reduces the probability of being hired on a permanent contract by 0.46% in France, 0.51% in Germany and 2.34% in Portugal. While not affecting this probability in Italy and Spain, labour market concentration significantly reduces the probability of being converted to a permanent contract once hired on a temporary one. Our results suggest that considering only the effect of labour market concentration on wages underestimates its overall impact on job quality and hence the resulting welfare loss for workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Agency, sentiment, and risk and uncertainty: fears of job loss in 8 European countries (2022)
Zitatform
Clark, Gordon L. (2022): Agency, sentiment, and risk and uncertainty: fears of job loss in 8 European countries. In: ZFW - Advances in Economic Geography, Jg. 66, H. 1, S. 3-17. DOI:10.1515/zfw-2021-0037
Abstract
"How people assess their prospects and act accordingly is anchored in time and space. But context is only half the story. Human beings share predispositions in favour of the here and now, discounting the future, and risk aversion. This paper provides a framework for integrating cognition with context in economic geography focusing upon agency, resources, and risk and uncertainty in European labour markets. In doing so, it seeks to avoid essentialising the individual while ensuring that the resulting framework does not leave individuals as cyphers of time and place. The framework is illustrated by reference to individual’s assessments of the consequences of technological change for their employment prospects in a multicountry European setting. Implications are drawn for a behavioural economic geography that is policy relevant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftsgeographie) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How to minimize job insecurity: The role of proactive and reactive coping over time (2022)
Zitatform
Langerak, Judith B., Jessie Koen & Edwin A. J. van Hooft (2022): How to minimize job insecurity: The role of proactive and reactive coping over time. In: Journal of vocational behavior, Jg. 136. DOI:10.1016/j.jvb.2022.103729
Abstract
"Job insecurity is no longer a temporary setback but an experience that many workers endure for prolonged periods of time during their career. While there is much research on the behaviors that may help workers to cope with the negative consequences of job insecurity (i.e., reactive coping), insight into behaviors that may help workers to minimize or even prevent the experience of job insecurity itself is still minimal (i.e., proactive coping). Yet, such insight is crucial to advance our knowledge on the dynamics of job insecurity and may offer an alternative strategy to help workers manage the experience of job insecurity during their career. Hence, in this 5-wave weekly survey study among 266 workers, we view the experience of job insecurity as an ongoing process that may fluctuate over time and investigated whether proactive coping (career planning, scenario thinking, career consultation, networking, and reflecting) could help workers to minimize their future job insecurity. Multilevel path analyses showed that weekly proactive coping behaviors were either unrelated or positively (rather than negatively) related to job insecurity in the following week, indicating that positive outcomes of proactive coping may need more time to establish. Additionally, we explored whether coping behaviors that are proactive in theory could also function as reactive coping behaviors (i.e., could buffer the negative consequences of job insecurity). Results showed no buffering effects, indicating that theoretically proactive coping behaviors did not function reactively. We discuss that prolonged proactive coping efforts are needed in contemporary careers, despite the short-term discomfort." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Are first jobs in the German public sector more stable?: An examination under consideration of the institutional structure (2022)
Zitatform
Löwe, Paul Severin (2022): Are first jobs in the German public sector more stable? An examination under consideration of the institutional structure. In: Soziale Welt, Jg. 73, H. 2, S. 377-415. DOI:10.5771/0038-6073-2022-2-377
Abstract
"In den letzten Jahrzehnten hat es in Deutschland eine Abkehr vom Normalarbeitsverhältnis gegeben. Insbesondere die nicht etablierten Gruppen des Arbeitsmarktes sind betroffen. Der Arbeitsmarkteinstieg wurde zur unsichersten Phase der Erwerbskarriere. Der öffentliche Dienst mit seinem spezifischen institutionellen Rahmen galt als "Modellarbeitgeber" für benachteiligte Gruppen. Reformen und Umstrukturierungen stellen diese Sonderstellung gegenüber dem Privatsektor allerdings in Frage. In diesem Artikel wird untersucht, ob der öffentliche Dienst eine stabilere Beschäftigung für Arbeitsmarkteinsteiger*innen bietet als der private Sektor. Es wird untersucht, ob die institutionelle Struktur des öffentlichen Dienstes die Beschäftigungsstabilität positiv beeinflusst. In einer Dekompositions-Analyse werden potenziell stabilisierende (arbeiten in einer Dienstbeziehung, mit hoher beruflicher Schließung, Teilnahme an Weiterbildungsmaßnahmen) und destabilisierende institutionelle Faktoren (befristete Beschäftigung, Teilzeit) getestet, um die Stabilität von Erstanstellungen im öffentlichen Dienst zu erklären. Die Arbeitsmarkteinstiegskohorten 1995-2012 werden auf Basis der retrospektiven Lebensverlaufsdaten der Startkohorte sechs des Nationalen Bildungspanels (NEPS) analysiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass der öffentliche Dienst stabilere erste Arbeitsplätze bietet. Stabilisierende Faktoren, wie die Teilnahme an Weiterbildungsmaßnahmen, sind dafür entscheidend. Allerdings reduzieren destabilisierende Faktoren, wie die intensive Nutzung von befristeten Verträgen, die Stabilität erheblich. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass die stabilisierende institutionelle Struktur des öffentlichen Sektors zwar einen Vorteil begründet, aber unter Druck steht und somit Potenzial für Polarisierungen bietet." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)