Auswirkungen des Krieges gegen die Ukraine auf Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Fluchtmigration in Deutschland
Die Folgen des russischen Angriffs auf die Ukraine sind auch Gegenstand der Arbeitsmarktforschung. Diskutiert werden mögliche konjunkturelle Effekte und Risiken für die Betriebe sowie die Auswirkungen der Fluchtmigration nach Deutschland. Dieses Themendossier bietet Einschätzungen und Empirie zu den Konsequenzen für Wirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt und Betriebe sowie für die Arbeitsmarktintegration von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine.
Im Filter „Autorenschaft“ können Sie auf IAB-(Mit-)Autorenschaft eingrenzen.
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Literaturhinweis
The Role of Settlement Intentions (Un-)Certainty in the Labour Market Integration of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany (2026)
Zitatform
Adunts, Davit, Kseniia Gatskova, Yuliya Kosyakova & Silvia Schwanhäuser (2026): The Role of Settlement Intentions (Un-)Certainty in the Labour Market Integration of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany. In: Work, Employment and Society, S. 1-25. DOI:10.1177/09500170261425857
Abstract
"This article examines how (un-)certainty in settlement intentions affects the socio-economic integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, using longitudinal data from the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey. Applying an instrumental variable approach, we estimate the effects of permanent, temporary, and uncertain settlement intentions on employment, employment aspirations, and host-country language proficiency. Findings show that settlement intention uncertainty hinders integration outcomes – most notably German language acquisition – while temporary intentions are linked to lower language proficiency and reduced employment aspirations. Permanent intentions, in contrast, facilitate stronger integration across all outcomes. Refugees with uncertain plans exhibit intermediate results. Theoretically, the article contributes to migration literature by disentangling the effects of settlement intention certainty from anticipated duration of stay, and by demonstrating how subjective expectations shape forward-looking behaviour. Our results advance Goal-Setting and Rational Choice Theories, and the Immigrant Human Capital Investment model by integrating uncertainty as a key moderating factor in refugees’ integration trajectories." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Sage) ((en))
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Adunts, Davit ; Gatskova, Kseniia ; Kosyakova, Yuliya ; Schwanhäuser, Silvia ; -
Literaturhinweis
A Wartime Labor Market (2026)
Zitatform
Boeri, Tito, Giacomo Anastasia & Oleksandr Zholud (2026): A Wartime Labor Market. (RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2026/10), Berlin, 70 S.
Abstract
"Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use these data to document one of the largest labor supply and reallocation shocks in recent history and to estimate the impact on job matching, showing how labor markets adapt under extreme stress. The labor force shrank by about one fourth, yet vacancy filling rates and matching efficiency declined modestly. Only along the frontline and in occupied regions there is evidence of labor market shutdowns. Wage flexibility, adaptability of recruitment policies of firms, and remote working help explain the resiliency of labor outcomes. Recovering longer-term human capital losses suffered by Ukraine will require a mix of tools going well beyond labor policies and should be a priority for the reconstruction phase." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Settlement intentions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany: Adhering to social status back home or restarting again abroad? (2026)
Zitatform
Ette, Andreas, Yuliya Kosyakova & Christian Kothe (2026): Settlement intentions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany: Adhering to social status back home or restarting again abroad? In: Demographic Research, Jg. 54, S. 481-520., 2026-01-15. DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.16
Abstract
"Background: The choice between permanent settlement and temporary migration has garnered increased attention in international migration studies, yet the decisions of refugees remain underexplored. Objective: Building on the existing literature on return migration among voluntary migrants, this paper investigates the importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees’ home and host countries for their settlement intentions. Methods: We use the register-based probability sample of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP survey on Ukrainian refugees in Germany following the Russian invasion of February 2022. We employ linear probability regression models and sheaf coefficient analyses. Results: Similar to voluntary migrants, socio-psychological context shapes the settlement decisions of forced migrants. However, Ukrainian refugees who intend to settle are more economically disadvantaged than their counterparts, exhibiting differences in education, financial status, and welfare dependency. Notably, the highly educated and previously economically successful express a strong desire to return due to significant losses incurred as a result of the conflict. Conclusions: Both socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts significantly shape refugees’ settlement intentions, with economic factors proving slightly more influential, especially for men. That economic disadvantage challenges traditional hypotheses about settlement and return highlights the gendered and volatile conditions of the conflict. Contribution: This paper extends the general literature on the settlement and return migration processes of voluntary migrants to the specific context of forced migration. Moreover, it conceptually differentiates between and empirically compares the relative importance of socio-psychological and economic-skills contexts in refugees’ countries of origin and destination." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Why Don’t They Work? Understanding the Complexity of Work Intentions Among Ukrainian Refugees in Germany (2026)
Zitatform
Falkenhain, Mariella, Nadja Brenning, Emilie Dobrovolski & Maya Kim (2026): Why Don’t They Work? Understanding the Complexity of Work Intentions Among Ukrainian Refugees in Germany. In: Journal of Immigrant and Refugee Studies, S. 1-15. DOI:10.1080/15562948.2026.2641508
Abstract
"Russia’s war against Ukraine has forced millions to leave their country. Although Ukrainian refugees were immediately entitled to access labor markets within the European Union, employment rates remained moderate in many European countries one year after the outbreak of war. This article investigates the underexplored question of how unemployed Ukrainian refugees in Germany envisioned their professional future early after arrival, how they experienced institutionalized requirements, and how the two interact. We identify four behavioral Patterns - career orientation, impatience, hesitancy and overstrain - and capture nuanced differences in work intentions and institutional experiences. Our findings reveal unintended negative consequences of one-size-fits-all policies and invite complexity thinking both politically and scientifically." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Taylor&Francis) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Overlooked Potential? Childcare Services and Ukrainian Refugee Mothers in Germany (2026)
Zitatform
Gambaro, Ludovica, Sophia Schmitz, Mathias Huebener & C. Katharina Spieß (2026): Overlooked Potential? Childcare Services and Ukrainian Refugee Mothers in Germany. In: Demography, Jg. 63, H. 3, S. 979-1005. DOI:10.1215/00703370-12665544
Abstract
"This article examines whether refugee mothers in high-income countries can benefit from universal childcare services. Using a large, representative survey of Ukrainian refugees in Germany linked with administrative area-level information, we estimate the effects of childcare services on mothers’ participation in language and integration courses, employment, language skills, social contact with Germans, feeling welcome, and subjective well-being. To address potential biases from omitted variables and endogeneity, we complement ordinary least-squares estimations with a formal assessment of unobserved factors and an instrumental variable approach, using local childcare coverage rates as the instrument. Results indicate that mothers increase their participation in integration and language classes as well as labor market engagement when their child attends childcare services. Additionally, childcare attendance is associated with mothers’ improved German skills and more frequent contact with German residents, confirming that childcare centers can foster bridging ties. We find no effect on maternal well-being. Although our selected outcomes cannot capture the full range of Ukrainian refugee mothers’ experiences in Germany, the outcomes extend beyond traditional labor market indicators, underscoring the broader integrative function of childcare services." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Ökonomische Kosten der Krisen in Deutschland (2026)
Grömling, Michael;Zitatform
Grömling, Michael (2026): Ökonomische Kosten der Krisen in Deutschland. (IW-Kurzberichte / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2026,07), Köln, 3 S.
Abstract
"In den krisengeplagten Jahren seit 2020 kam es in Deutschland zu einem Ausfall an Wirtschaftsleistungen von nahezu einer Billion Euro. Allein ein Viertel davon entfällt auf das vergangene Jahr. Je Erwerbstätigen entspricht dies einem Wertschöpfungsverlust von insgesamt deutlich über 20.000 Euro durch die Pandemie, die Folgewirkungen des Kriegs in der Ukraine und die konfrontative Politik der USA." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Refugee labor market integration at scale: Evidence from Germany’s fast-track employment program (2026)
Zitatform
Hainmueller, Jens, Moritz Marbach, Dominik Hangartner, Niklas Harder & Ehsan Vallizadeh (2026): Refugee labor market integration at scale: Evidence from Germany’s fast-track employment program. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Jg. 123, H. 14. DOI:10.1073/pnas.2513863123
Abstract
"Governments face persistent challenges in integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-mo follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions —and were concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of placements followed by sustained employment, consistent with improved placement quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers on contact rates or exit-to-job rates for unemployed German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no evidence of resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance—embedded within theearly stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure—can meaningfully improve refugees’ labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Unequal returns: gendered and origin-based disparities in initial refugee employment trajectories in Germany (2026)
Zitatform
Hartmann, Jörg & Yuliya Kosyakova (2026): Unequal returns: gendered and origin-based disparities in initial refugee employment trajectories in Germany. In: Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, S. 1-26. DOI:10.1080/1369183X.2026.2669616
Abstract
"This article examines origin- and gender-based disparities in labour-market integration of refugees in Germany, comparing Ukrainian refugees with refugees from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Using longitudinal data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey and the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Ukrainian Refugee Survey, we trace labour-force participation (LFP) and employment rates during the first three years after arrival. Our findings confirm the expected origin and gender gaps. Ukrainians outperform MENA refugees, and men outperform women in both LFP and employment rates. However, decomposition analyses reveal that these gaps are driven less by differences in pre-migration human capital, post-migration investments, caregiving responsibilities, or legal conditions as endowments. Instead, disparities in LFP are largely explained by differential returns to similar characteristics, particularly duration of stay and, for women, returns to language skills and not having children. Once selection into the labour force is accounted for, most employment gaps are reversed or disappear, indicating that early inequalities primarily arise from differential entry into LFP rather than unequal employment chances among participants. Overall, the findings highlight labour-force selection and unequal returns – rather than resource deficits – as central mechanisms shaping early refugee labour-market integration." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Taylor&Francis) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Migration und Ohnmacht: Intersektionale Perspektiven auf ukrainische Migrantinnen im Freiwilligendienst in Deutschland (2026)
Zitatform
Hoggan-Kloubert, Tetyana & Chad Hoggan (2026): Migration und Ohnmacht. Intersektionale Perspektiven auf ukrainische Migrantinnen im Freiwilligendienst in Deutschland. In: Zeitschrift für Weiterbildungsforschung, Jg. 49, H. 1, S. 49-74. DOI:10.1007/s40955-026-00340-9
Abstract
"Der Beitrag untersucht ehrenamtliches Engagement ukrainischer geflüchteter Frauen als intersektional strukturierte Praxis von Lernen und Empowerment im Kontext von Fluchtmigration. Ausgehend von feministischen Machttheorien, intersektionalen Ansätzen und Konzepten informellen Lernens durch ehrenamtliches Engagement richtet die Studie den Blick auf Praktiken der Selbstermächtigung jenseits dominanter Vulnerabilitätsnarrative. Empirisch basiert der Beitrag auf teilnehmender Beobachtung sowie leitfadengestützten Interviews mit zwölf ukrainischen Frauen in Süddeutschland. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass freiwilliges Engagement als „Bewältigungsbrücke“ wirkt: Es fördert psychische Stabilisierung, soziale Verankerung, informelle Lernprozesse und Selbstwirksamkeit trotz fortbestehender struktureller Barrieren. Zugleich wird die Ambivalenz des Engagements sichtbar, das zwischen Empowerment und Überlastung oszilliert." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Energy Price Shocks and Short-Term Reactions of Firms: The Case of the German Energy Crisis in 2022 (2026)
Zitatform
Horbach, Jens & Christian Rammer (2026): Energy Price Shocks and Short-Term Reactions of Firms: The Case of the German Energy Crisis in 2022. In: German Economic Review, S. 1-28. DOI:10.1515/ger-2025-0010
Abstract
"After the beginning of the war in Ukraine, energy prices in Germany increased drastically. The paper analyses responses of German firms to this energy price shock. A variety of measures and reactions at the firm-level are explored, such as substituting machinery and equipment by less energy consuming alternatives, a change of energy suppliers, the use of digital technologies to reduce energy consumption, the introduction of energy management systems, relocation or closure of energy-intensive activities, or replacing fossil by other energy sources. The analysis is based on data from the German part of the Community Innovation Survey. The econometric results show that a high affectedness by the energy price shock in 2022 triggers the substitution of machinery and equipment by more energy efficient alternatives. This measure in turn is correlated to a decrease of electricity consumption and oil use, and it promotes the substitution of fossil energy sources by renewables. From a policy perspective, energy price shocks and politically induced higher energy prices can be advantageous for a shift of energy use towards higher levels of energy efficiency and a substitution of fossil energies by renewables. However, such shocks can lead to negative short-term economic consequences in energy-intensive firms." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Beschäftigungsquoten der ukrainischen Geflüchteten unterscheiden sich regional deutlich (2026)
Zitatform
Jaschke, Philipp, Yuliya Kosyakova & Simon Wagner (2026): Beschäftigungsquoten der ukrainischen Geflüchteten unterscheiden sich regional deutlich. In: IAB-Forum – Grafik aktuell H. 17.02.2026. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.GA.20260217.01
Abstract
"In Deutschland ist durchschnittlich rund ein Drittel der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine im dritten Jahr nach dem Zuzug in Beschäftigung – die Werte in den einzelnen Bundesländern liegen zum Teil deutlich darunter oder darüber." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
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Literaturhinweis
Cherchez l'homme? The Wartime Migration of Men in Ukraine: Research Note (2026)
Zitatform
Kogan, Irena & Yuliya Kosyakova (2026): Cherchez l'homme? The Wartime Migration of Men in Ukraine: Research Note. In: Journal of International Migration and Integration, Jg. 27, H. 1, S. 287-302., 2025-07-11. DOI:10.1007/s12134-025-01297-3
Abstract
"This research note investigates wartime migration patterns of Ukrainian men in the initial months of the full-scale invasion. We utilize data from the OneUA project, which employed non-probability sampling via META’s social media platforms and survival analyses techniques to analyze the impact of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on men’s decisions either to relocate within Ukraine (i.e., becoming internally displaced) or emigrate abroad (i.e., becoming a refugee). Exemptions from conscription under martial law are modestly reflected in the patterns of men’s emigration, with fathers of three or more children having a higher rate of international migration. Contrary to our expectations, men above conscription age, single fathers, and those in poor health did not emigrate at a higher rate compared to their male counterparts. However, higher levels of education, English proficiency, stronger financial standing, and better health are all associated with a significantly increased rate of international migration. Notably, men who reported being particularly healthy in the survey left Ukraine at higher rates compared to those in poor health. Assuming that their reported health status reflects their condition prior to leaving the country, this finding appears to contradict expectations based on martial law conditions. Our findings imply that, despite the restrictions imposed by martial law, some productive and subjectively healthy men may have left Ukraine during the initial months of the Russian invasion." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer Nature) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
War beyond borders: how military conflict in Ukraine shapes refugees’ settlement intentions abroad (2026)
Zitatform
Kosyakova, Yuliya, Andreas Ette & Silvia Schwanhäuser (2026): War beyond borders: how military conflict in Ukraine shapes refugees’ settlement intentions abroad. In: European Sociological Review, S. 1-18. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcag008
Abstract
"This study investigates whether military conflict intensities in refugees’ home regions continue to shape their lives after arrival in a safe haven. While war and local conflict are well-established drivers of initial displacement, it remains unclear whether ongoing conflict influences settlement decision once refugees have escaped the immediate threat. We address this question using longitudinal data from the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, linked to high-frequency conflict data from Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion. Our findings show that both short- and long-term conflict intensities significantly affect refugees’ intentions to settle permanently abroad, with short-term shocks exerting a markedly stronger influence. Emotional responses to acute violence appear to disrupt more deliberative planning, consistent with ecological models of refugee distress. In contrast, long-term conflict intensity effects are weaker and diminish with time spent in the host country, suggesting processes of adaptation or habituation. We also find important heterogeneity: male refugees and those migrating for economic or family reasons are particularly sensitive to conflict dynamics, whereas those with family left behind are generally less inclined to settle permanently. Contrary to expectations, prior war exposure does not moderate current settlement intentions, pointing to possible acclimatization or avoidance strategies among highly exposed individuals. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating both emotional and evaluative processes into sociological models of refugee decision-making. They also highlight how even after arrival in safety, evolving home-country violence continues to shape refugees’ settlement trajectories." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford University Press) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung verknüpft mit BA-Beschäftigungsstatistik: Deutliche Fortschritte bei der Arbeitsmarktintegration ukrainischer Geflüchteter (2026)
Zitatform
Kosyakova, Yuliya, Philipp Jaschke & Simon Wagner (2026): IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung verknüpft mit BA-Beschäftigungsstatistik: Deutliche Fortschritte bei der Arbeitsmarktintegration ukrainischer Geflüchteter. (IAB-Kurzbericht 03/2026), Nürnberg, 8 S. DOI:10.48720/IAB.KB.2603
Abstract
"Der russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine dauert bereits fast vier Jahre an und hat seit dem 24. Februar 2022 die größte Fluchtbewegung in Europa seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg ausgelöst. Ende 2024 suchten rund 6,7 Millionen Ukrainer*innen Schutz im Ausland, davon etwa eine Million in Deutschland. Wie sich die Arbeitsmarktintegration ukrainischer Geflüchteter seit ihrer Ankunft in Deutschland entwickelt hat, zeigen Analysen auf der Grundlage von Daten der IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten, die hierfür mit den Daten der Integrierten Erwerbsbiografien verknüpft wurden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
- Monatliche Beschäftigungsquoten der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine nach Aufenthaltsdauer und Geschlecht
- Dreieinhalb Jahre nach ihrer Ankunft ist die Hälfte der ukrainischen Geflüchteten beschäftigt
- weitere Informationen in: IAB-Forum - Grafik aktuell
- Aufnahme der ersten Beschäftigung von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine nach Aufenthaltsdauer, Geschlecht und Zuzugskohorte
- Erste Teilnahme von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine an einer arbeitsmarktpolitischen Maßnahme nach Aufenthaltsdauer, Geschlecht und Zuzugskohorte
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Literaturhinweis
The Affective Well-Being of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany: Evidence from Five Waves of Representative Panel Data (2026)
Zitatform
Kriechel, Lisa, Nadja Milewski & Martin Bujard (2026): The Affective Well-Being of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany: Evidence from Five Waves of Representative Panel Data. In: Journal of happiness studies, Jg. 27, H. 1. DOI:10.1007/s10902-025-00989-y
Abstract
"As a result of the Russo-Ukrainian war, several million Ukrainians fled, more than one million to Germany. Until now, most studies on mental health of Ukrainian refugees are cross-sectional and there is a clear need to observe their well-being. We employed five waves of the IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP (later BiB/FReDA) Survey on Ukrainian Refugees in Germany analyzing affective balance, starting shortly after flight in summer 2022. By observing the time span between the summer of 2022 and the fall of 2024, we could emphasize potential risk and protective factors for Ukrainian refugees’ affective balance, a scale that indicates affective well-being by measuring angry, worried, happy, and sad emotions. We found that the respondents’ affective well-being increased over time, mostly due to decreasing frequencies of negative affects. Moreover, our results suggest that while the effects of worries on affective balance did not diminish upon controlling for potential protective factors, contact to Germans, German language proficiency, and pursuing a part-time job still improved affective balance. We thus conclude that over time, Ukrainian refugees’ situation in Germany improves, as well. Nevertheless, their worries about their economic, health-related, or family-related situation should not be discounted." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Forced migration, uncertainty and transnationalism of Ukrainians in Germany (2026)
Lapshyna, Iryna;Zitatform
Lapshyna, Iryna (2026): Forced migration, uncertainty and transnationalism of Ukrainians in Germany. In: Mobilities, Jg. 21, H. 1, S. 48-66. DOI:10.1080/17450101.2024.2445806
Abstract
"Currently, the situation of Ukrainians in Germany and generally the EU is determined by a transitory environment of a Russia’s war against Ukraine with an uncertain outcome, a temporary migration status with an uncertain prospect and an integration process of uncertain results all on the backdrop of often transnational individual strategies. Uncertainty is at the core of all these parameters. This paper investigates how Ukrainian forced migrants in Germany deal with the stress of uncertainty and specifically the complex process of migration decision-making. Drawing on findings from a qualitative study of Ukrainian forced migrants in Germany I focus on the uncertainties they experience in political, economic, social and linguistic domains. The paper identifies multiple drivers at play such as the duration of the war, prospects of post-war reconstruction, the well-being of family members, the integration process, the future perspectives of the children. Furthermore, I explore whether transnational strategies can be understood as a response to these uncertainties. The choice is not necessarily a simple one between returning or staying, but a combination of both worlds - the Ukrainian and the new world in Germany - which means establishing a transnational pattern of mobility and living under conditions of uncertainty." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Education and the Recalibration of Pull Factors: Ukrainian Exceptionalism in Forced Migration? (2026)
Liudmyla, Yuzva; Długosz, Piotr;Zitatform
Liudmyla, Yuzva & Piotr Długosz (2026): Education and the Recalibration of Pull Factors: Ukrainian Exceptionalism in Forced Migration? In: Journal of International Migration and Integration, S. 1-25. DOI:10.1007/s12134-026-01361-6
Abstract
"This article explores the migration and settlement decisions of Ukrainian refugees in Germany following the 2022 Russian invasion. Applying Everett Lee’s push–pull theory, it focuses on parents (reflecting the predominance of women travelling with children)—the largest displaced group—and investigates whether access to children’s education emerges not only as a domain of integration but asa significant pull factor within a broader constellation of drivers shaping settlement intentions. The analysis draws on original survey data collected in late 2024 (n = 1075), using an SMS-recruited online questionnaire administered across several host countries. Findings indicate that while war-related threats (e.g. bombardments, destruction of housing) were the primary push factors prompting departure from Ukraine, the decision to settle in Germany was strongly influenced by pull factors such as safety, social support, and access to schooling. Respondents in Germany were more likely to cite long-term motives—such as improved living standards and educational prospects—than those in neighbouring countries. Education emerges not only as a sphere of integration but also as a as part of an institutional bundle, especially for parents of minors. Dual-schooling models (local and Ukrainian), parental assessments of system quality, and children’s adaptation shaped settlement choices. These dynamics show the role of education in refugee agency and family strategy. The article argues that Ukrainian migration to Germany illustrates the interplay between structural pressures and personal decision-making. Push factors triggered large-scale displacement; pull factors and individual evaluations shaped longer-term trajectories. These findings contribute to migration theory by demonstrating the centrality of education in forced migration contexts and by highlighting the heterogeneity of refugee profiles within a single national cohort." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Sparkurs bei Geflüchteten - Was darf Integration kosten?: Bundesinnenminister Alexander Dobrindt will Integrationskurse nur noch für Menschen mit "gesicherter Bleibeperspektive" anbieten. Welche Folgen hat das? (Podcast) (2026)
Zitatform
Maull, Doris, Ricarda Breyton, Niklas Harder & Yuliya Kosyakova (2026): Sparkurs bei Geflüchteten - Was darf Integration kosten? Bundesinnenminister Alexander Dobrindt will Integrationskurse nur noch für Menschen mit "gesicherter Bleibeperspektive" anbieten. Welche Folgen hat das? (Podcast). (SWR Kultur), Brüssel, 45 Min.
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Literaturhinweis
Temporary Protection, permanent effects? The labor market impact of Ukrainian refugees in the European Union (2026)
Zitatform
Nieuwenhuis, Aukje, Agnieszka Postepska, Rob Alessie & Anastasiia Voloshyna (2026): Temporary Protection, permanent effects? The labor market impact of Ukrainian refugees in the European Union. (GLO discussion paper / Global Labor Organization 1769), Essen, 65 S.
Abstract
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 triggered one of the largest refugee movements in Europe since World War II, with millions of Ukrainians seeking safety abroad. Czechia, Germany, and Poland emerged as primary destinations. Activation of the EU's Temporary Protection Directive granted Ukrainian refugees immediate access to host-country labor markets, creating substantial labor supply shocks. This study examines the impact of the inflow of Ukrainian refugees into the workforce in these three countries using quarterly individual-level microdata from the European Union Labor Force Survey (EU-LFS) between 2017 and 2023. Leveraging regional variation in exposure to Ukrainian employees, we estimate the effects of refugee employment on local employment, unemployment, inactivity, and working hours. We find no population-wide displacement effects, consistent with prior evidence for Czechia. However, subgroup analyses reveal heterogeneous impacts across countries. In Czechia, low-educated men benefited from increased labor demand, whereas in Poland, low-educated men experienced adverse effects. In Germany, secondary-educated men faced greater competitive pressure, reflected in an acceleration of early retirement. These differences likely stem from cross-country variation in refugee skill composition and bureaucratic barriers to labor market entry. Our findings highlight how institutional context shapes refugee integration and mediates the effects of large labor supply shocks on vulnerable segments of the local workforce." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Grenzen der interbehördlichen Zusammenarbeit: Der Rechtskreiswechsel Geflüchteter aus der Ukraine (2026)
Sua-Ngam-Iam, Phanmika;Zitatform
Sua-Ngam-Iam, Phanmika (2026): Grenzen der interbehördlichen Zusammenarbeit. Der Rechtskreiswechsel Geflüchteter aus der Ukraine. In: S. Büchner, K. Braunsmann, K. Gall, J. Rahn & I. Zakharova (Hrsg.) (2026): Fall und Fallförmigkeit. Organisationen als Kontexte von Fallbearbeitung, S. 143-164.
Abstract
"Die soziale Sicherung und damit einhergehend der Wechsel der rechtlichen Zuständigkeit (Rechtskreiswechsel) für Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine vom Sozialamt (Asylbewerberleistungsgesetz) zum Jobcenter (SGB II) stellt für die öffentliche Verwaltung eine administrative Herausforderung dar. In diesem Beitrag wird untersucht, wie die beteiligten Organisationen der öffentlichen Verwaltung diesen gesetzlichen Auftrag umsetzen. Basierend auf einer empirischen Analyse der Kooperation insbesondere zwischen dem Jobcenter und den Sozialämtern zeigt der Beitrag, wie der Rechtskreiswechsel als mehrdimensional belastetes Problem – bedingt durch hohe Fallzahlen, zeitlichen Druck und unklare Rechtslage – mithilfe von Techniken der Grenzziehung und -erweiterung bewältigt wird. Aus systemtheoretischer Perspektive wird analysiert, wie unterschiedliche organisationale Bedingungen zu divergierenden Fallkonstruktionen und damit einhergehend zu unterschiedlichen Fallbearbeitungen führen: In den zweckprogrammierten Asylstellen werden Fälle ganzheitlich und kontinuierlich betreut, während sich die Fallbearbeitung im konditionalprogrammierten Jobcenter auf leistungsrechtliche Aspekte beschränkt und episodisch erfolgt. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass insbesondere die Verlagerung von Problemlösungen in das Zwischensystem zwischen den Behörden die Umsetzung des Rechtskreiswechsels ermöglicht." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
