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Seifert, Stefan & Marica Valente (2018): An offer that you can't refuse? Agrimafias and migrant labor on vineyards in Southern Italy. (DIW-Diskussionspapiere 1735), Berlin, 33 S.

Abstract

"In the 2011 post-Arab Spring migration wave, over 64,000 migrants landed on the southern Italian coast, with many of them potentially working illegally on farms through caporalato, a widespread system of illegal recruitment of underpaid farm labor run by Italian agrimafias. To test this hypothesis, this paper evaluates the causal effects of the 2011 migration wave on reported labor productivity focusing on vineyards in southern Italy. Based on a dynamic panel data model, labor productivity is estimated to increase by about 11% on average for 2011 and 2012. We show that this corresponds to a total of around 10 million unreported work hours, or 21,000 full-time employees, in each year. We interpret this as an increase in employment of illegal workforce due to the migration wave. Magnitude, direction, and statistical significance of the effect are confirmed under various model specifications and using synthetic control and post-lasso approaches." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Two billion workers - representing 61.2 per cent of the world's employed population - are in informal employment.
The third edition of this work provides, for the first time, comparable estimates on the size of the informal economy and a statistical profile of informality in all its diversity at the global and regional levels. A common set of criteria to measure informal work has been applied to more than 100 countries, both developed and developing.
The publication is particularly timely given the momentum created by the Transition from the Informal to the Formal Economy Recommendation, 2015 (No. 204) and the Sustainable Development Goals, which include a specific global indicator on informal employment (8.3.1)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Afonso, Óscar & Francisco Almeida (2017): The nonobserved economy in the European Union. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 24, H. 1, S. 14-18. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2016.1158908

Abstract

"To better understand the share of the nonobserved economy (NOE) in the European Union, especially on the PIIGS, we estimate, through the multiple indicators multiple causes model, the path between 1980 and 2013. The model includes (i) the tax burden (disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes), a proxy of regulation burden, the unemployment rate and self-employment as causes of the NOE economy; (ii) the GDP and the labour force participation ratio as indicators of the NOE economy. In particular, the estimated weight of NOE as a percentage of official GDP was always higher in the PIIGS group." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Afonso, Óscar & Rui Sarabanda (2017): The impact of the informal economy on R&D, wage inequality and economic growth. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 24, H. 1, S. 39-44. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2016.1158913

Abstract

"We extend the existing research and development (R&D) growth literature by focusing on the short - medium - long run effects of the informal sector on R&D intensity, wage inequality and economic growth, and by considering 18 OECD countries between 1990 and 2008. We show that: the steady state is unique and stable; the share of informal economy (IE) in production affects negatively R&D intensity and wage equality; Nordic countries have the lowest share of IE in production, while Mediterranean countries have the highest share of IE, wage inequality and R&D intensity but R&D spillovers are lower." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Di Porto, Edoardo, Leandro Elia & Cristina Tealdi (2017): Informal work in a flexible labour market. In: Oxford economic papers, Jg. 69, H. 1, S. 143-164. DOI:10.1093/oep/gpw010

Abstract

"Informal employment is a pervasive and persistent feature of most developing and developed economies. Labour taxation and labour market regulations are deemed two major causes for operating in the informal sector. Using data from France, Italy, and Spain, we analyse gross job flows and gross worker flows in the formal and informal sectors in the presence of lenient employment protection legislation, and investigate the way traditional policy interventions may favour transitions from one sector to the other. We show that optimal outcomes in terms of reduction and formalisation of informal jobs across the three countries examined are achieved with the combination of lower payroll taxes for permanent contracts and higher inspection rate for firms operating in the informal sector. Coupling lower firing costs with more frequent labour inspections also reduces informality, but this comes at the cost of an increased ratio of temporary to total employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Enste, Dominik H. (2017): Schwarzarbeit und Schattenwirtschaft. Argumente und Fakten zur nicht angemeldeten Erwerbstätigkeit in Deutschland und Europa. (IW-Report / Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft Köln 2017,09), Köln, 30 S.

Abstract

"Über Schwarzarbeit und Schattenwirtschaft wird vor allem in Zeiten von wirtschaftlichen Krisen gesprochen. Sie dienen dann als eine Art Puffer und gleichen die Härten einer Rezession gerade für Personen mit geringeren oder mittleren Einkommen aus. Gerade in Südeuropa ist Schattenwirtschaft weitverbreitet." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Feld, Lars P. & Friedrich Schneider (2017): Reply to Gebhard Kirchgässner. In: German economic review, Jg. 18, H. 1, S. 112-117. DOI:10.1111/geer.12097

Abstract

"In this reply to Kirchgässner, four issues are addressed: (1) the extent of double counting in attempts to reconcile estimates of the shadow economy based on the survey method and estimates based on the MIMIC (cum currency demand) approach, (2) advantages and disadvantages of the survey method, (3) of macro methods like the MIMIC approach and (4) the potential role of plausibility checks of estimates from the MIMIC approach with the survey method." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Goel, Rajeev K. & James W. Saunoris (2017): Unemployment and international shadow economy. Gender differences. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 49, H. 58, S. 5828-5840. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2017.1343452

Abstract

"Adding to the body of research on cross-country determinants of the informal economy, this article studies how unemployment differences across gender drive the propensities to work in the informal sector. Results, accounting for possible simultaneity between unemployment and the shadow economy, show that unemployed males, rather than unemployed females, were more likely to operate underground. These findings about greater male propensities are generally robust to alternative considerations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kirchgässner, Gebhard (2017): On estimating the size of the shadow economy. In: German economic review, Jg. 18, H. 1, S. 99-111. DOI:10.1111/geer.12094

Abstract

"As long as it is employed cautiously enough, the model approach is a useful tool to estimate simultaneously the size and the development of the shadow economy in several countries. However, a second method is necessary to calibrate the model. The currency demand approach can lead to highly implausible results; the size of the shadow economy might be largely overestimated. An alternative is the survey method. For real tests of whether a variable has an impact, procedures are necessary that do not use the same variables as those used to construct the indicator. Thus, to make progress in analysing the shadow economy, the model approach has a role to play, but it has to be complemented by other methods employing different data. The currency demand approach cannot be used as long as it employs the same variables for its constructions." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Mauleón, I. & J. Sardà (2017): Unemployment and the shadow economy. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 49, H. 37, S. 3729-3740. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2016.1267844

Abstract

"Current research links the shadow economy (SE) and the unemployment rate either indirectly or by means of a preliminary estimate. This article establishes and empirically implements a methodology for estimating the size of the SE as a direct function of the tax and unemployment rates. This link is found to be extremely relevant in countries with high unemployment rates (such as Greece and Spain) and less relevant in countries with moderate unemployment rates (such as Germany and Italy). Unemployment's contribution to the SE is shown to be significant, especially in the years following the economic downturn of 2008. The calculation of the variance and distribution of these estimates is another significant contribution. The common criticism that SE estimates are unreliable is addressed by calculating the variance and the distribution of the estimates, and the large size of the SE in Greece and Spain is once again confirmed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Pfau-Effinger, Birgit (2017): Informal employment in the poor European periphery. In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 37, H. 7/8, S. 387-399. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-07-2016-0080

Abstract

"Purpose
During the transition from socialist to post-socialist regimes, many Central and Eastern Europe societies have developed a broad sector of informal work. This development has caused substantial economic and social problems. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper aims to answer two questions regarding European countries with a relatively weak economy and welfare state: what are the differences in the social characteristics between workers in formal and informal employment? And how might they be explained? According to the main assumption, a key reason why people work in undeclared employment in such countries is that they are in particularly vulnerable positions in the labour market. This paper uses the example of Moldova. The empirical study is based on a unique survey data set from the National Statistical Office of Moldova covering formal and informal employment.
Findings
The findings show that, in informal employment, workers in rural areas, workers with a low level of education, young workers and older workers - in the final years of their careers and after the age of retirement - are over-represented. It seems that a significant reason why these workers are often engaged in informal employment is the lack of alternatives in the labour market, particularly in rural areas, compounded by limited social benefits from unemployment benefits and pensions.
Originality/value
Research about social differences between workers in formal and informal employment in the countries of the European periphery is rare. This paper makes a new contribution to the theoretical debate and research regarding work in informal employment" (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Schneider, Friedrich (2017): Implausible large differences in the sizes of underground economies in highly developed European countries? A comparison of different estimation methods. (CESifo working paper 6522), München, 25 S.

Abstract

"In this paper, first, the MIMIC estimation method is described and criticized and due to a double counting problem a correction is suggested. Second, the measurement methods used for National Accounts Statistics - the discrepancy method and two new micro survey methods - are described and a third, a micro method, using a combination of company manager surveys and their knowledge to calibrate the size of the shadow economy in firms, is presented, too. Third, a detailed comparison of the four micro estimation methods with the MIMIC and the corrected MIMIC method are presented. One major result is that the corrected MIMIC method, especially, comes quite close to various types of lately developed micro survey methods." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Shapland, Joanna & Jason Heyes (2017): How close are formal and informal work? In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 37, H. 7/8, S. 374-386. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-06-2016-0071

Abstract

"Purpose
Recent changes in the UK to the regulation and modes of work in the formal and informal economies are considered. Research in this field has tended to remain in silos (treating formal economy working conditions separately from research on the informal economy). The question is whether the means of work and benefits to the worker for formal and informal work are now as different as the former images of formal and informal economy work imply under a 'jobs-for-life' economy. The purpose of this paper is to consider whether the current aim of government regulation of the informal economy - to formalise it - is actually of benefit to workers, as might be supposed.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper considers recent research findings on the formal and informal economy, using official government statistics for the UK and more detailed European studies on the informal economy.
Findings
This paper argues that formal employment in the UK is becoming more casualised, with less associated benefits to employees. Though it is still of benefit to the state to formalise informal work (to increase tax take), some of the links between formalisation and a good working environment for workers are being broken, which may lead to the informal economy becoming more popular and requiring different priorities in its regulation.
Originality/value
This paper argues that we need to change our assumptions and image of work in the formal economy, compared to that in the informal economy." (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Slack, Tim, Leif Cope, Michael R. Jensen & Ann R. Tickamyer (2017): Social embeddedness, formal labor supply, and participation in informal work. In: The international journal of sociology and social policy, Jg. 37, H. 3/4, S. 248-264. DOI:10.1108/IJSSP-02-2016-0022

Abstract

"Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze data from the first-ever national-level study of informal work in the USA to test two prominent points of focus in the literature: how participation in informal work relates to social embeddedness and formal labor supply. This paper also provides a comparative test of the factors associated with exchange-based informal work (i.e. money/barter) vs self-provisioning activities.
Design/methodology/approach: The study draws on data from a national-level household telephone survey and uses descriptive statistics and logistic regression models.
Findings: The data show that participation in the informal economy is widespread in the USA. Consistent with theory, it is found that measures of social embeddedness and formal labor supply are much more salient for predicting participation in informal work for money/barter compared to self-provisioning.
Originality/value: Drawing on unique data from the first national-level household survey of informal work in the USA, this study provides generalizable support for the contention that the informal sector stands as a persistent structural feature in modern society. The results build on the wealth of information produced by qualitative case studies examining informal economic activity as well as a smaller number of regionally targeted surveys to provide important theoretical insights." (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Tangermann, Julian & Janne Grote (2017): Illegale Beschäftigung von Drittstaatsangehörigen in Deutschland. Studie der deutschen nationalen Kontaktstelle für das Europäische Migrationsnetzwerk (EMN). (Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge. Working paper 74), Nürnberg, 72 S.

Abstract

"In der Diskussion über illegale Beschäftigung standen in der jüngeren Vergangenheit immer wieder sowohl deutsche als auch ausländische Beschäftigte im Fokus. Jüngst gerieten Geflüchtete ins Rampenlicht, obwohl es keine verlässlichen Erkenntnisse darüber gibt, dass sie überproportional häufig einer illegalen Beschäftigung nachgehen. Auch in Bezug zur illegalen Beschäftigung von Drittstaatsangehörigen im Allgemeinen gibt es nur wenige verlässliche statistische Kennzahlen. Die vorhandenen Daten werden in der Studie diskutiert. Darüber hinaus werden die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen, die zentralen Akteure zur Kontrolle und Präventionsarbeit sowie die Folgen für Arbeitgeberinnen und Arbeitgeber und für illegal beschäftigte Drittstaatsangehörige selbst beschrieben." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Williams, Colin C. & Ioana A. Horodnic (2017): Evaluating the relationship between social exclusion and participation in the informal sector in the European Union. In: International journal of manpower, Jg. 38, H. 3, S. 489-503. DOI:10.1108/IJM-10-2015-0179

Abstract

"Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate who engages in informal work. The intention in doing so is to analyse whether important causal factors of social exclusion such as age, education, gender and employment status influence participation in informal work in the European Union.
Design/methodology/approach: To do this, a 2013 Eurobarometer survey of who participates in undeclared work in 28 European member states is reported.
Findings: Using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, the finding is that although some marginalised groups (the unemployed, those having difficulties paying their household bills, the working class and younger age groups) are significantly more likely to participate in the informal sector, others are not (those with less formal education and living in rural areas) and yet others (women and people in deprived European regions) are significantly less likely to participate.
Research limitations/implications: The outcome is a call for a nuanced and variegated understanding of the relationship between participation in the informal sector and social exclusion.
Practical implications: These results display the specific populations that need targeting when seeking to tackle informal work, revealing for example that the current the allocation of European funds for tackling informal work in poorer EU regions is mistaken, but that the targeting of the unemployed is not and current policy initiatives such as smoothing the transition from unemployment to self-employment worthwhile.
Originality/value: This is the first extensive evaluation of the relationship between participation in the informal sector and social exclusion at the level of the European Union" (Author's abstract, © Emerald Group) ((en))

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Williams, Colin C., Predrag Bejakovic, Davor Mikulic, Josip Franic, Abbi Kedir & Ioana A. Horodnic (2017): An evaluation of the scale of undeclared work in the European Union and its structural determinants. Estimates using the Labour Input Method. Brüssel, 29 S. DOI:10.2767/98169

Abstract

"How big is undeclared work in the EU? According to this study, more than 11% of work in the private sector is 'under the table'. However, there are big differences between EU countries, with Poland, Romania and Lithuania having the highest levels of undeclared work, while Germany and the Netherlands have low shares. The study analyses the reasons for this and examines the types of employments where undeclared work is more frequent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"Der nun vom Bundeskabinett beschlossene Dreizehnte Bericht zeigt auf, dass nahezu alle, insbesondere lohnintensive Wirtschaftszweige von Schwarzarbeit und illegaler Beschäftigung betroffen sind. Die Schwerpunkte liegen dabei unter anderem in den im Schwarzarbeitsbekämpfungsgesetz und im Vierten Sozialgesetzbuch genannten Branchen, wie beispielsweise das Bau-, das Gaststätten- und Beherbergungs-, das Personenbeförderungs-, das Speditions-, Transport- und Logistik-, das Gebäudereinigungsgewerbe sowie die Fleischwirtschaft.
Der Bericht berücksichtigt die Stellungnahmen der Länder, der betroffenen Bundesressorts, der Generalzolldirektion sowie weiterer Behörden, Interessenvertretungen und Gewerkschaften und stellt die Entwicklung im Zeitraum von 2013 bis 2016 dar." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bundesministerium der Finanzen (2017): Finanzkontrolle Schwarzarbeit - Kontrolle von Mindestlöhnen 2016. Antwort der Bundesregierung auf die Kleine Anfrage der Abgeordneten und der Fraktion BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN (Drucksache 18/11304). (Verhandlungen des Deutschen Bundestages. Drucksachen 18/11475 (10.03.2017)), 20 S.

Abstract

Die Bundesregierung antwortet auf die Anfrage der Fraktion BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN zur Kontrolle von Mindestlöhnen durch die Finanzkontrolle Schwarzarbeit im Jahr 2016. (IAB)

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Di Caro, Paolo & Giuseppe Nicotra (2016): Short, long and spatial dynamics of informal employment. In: Regional Studies. Journal of the Regional Studies Association, Jg. 50, H. 11, S. 1804-1818. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2015.1072274

Abstract

"In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir regionale Schattenarbeitsmärkte. Wir führen überregionale Migrationsströme in ein stochastisches Zweisektorenmodell ein, das zur Untersuchung der Auswirkungen der regionalen Wechselwirkungen auf die Informalität genutzt wird. Aus den empirischen Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass informelle Tätigkeiten in italienischen Regionen durch die ineffiziente Bereitstellung öffentlicher Güter sowie durch hohe Steuern bedingt sind. Regionale Verbindungen werden als signifikant befunden. Wir untersuchen ortsspezifische Reaktionen der informellen Beschäftigung auf nationale Schocks in der offiziellen Wirtschaft und stellen fest, dass der informelle Sektor formelle Tätigkeiten ergänzen oder ersetzen kann. Anschließend erörtern wir die zusammengefassten Ergebnisse und politischen Schlussfolgerungen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Flórez, Luz Adriana & Francisco Perales (2016): Labour protection and informal work. A cross-national analysis of european countries, 2004-2012. In: International Labour Review, Jg. 155, H. 4, S. 623-650. DOI:10.1111/j.1564-913X.2015.00049.x

Abstract

"Informal work, defined as work performed without a formal contract, lowers productivity, reduces tax revenue and hampers economic growth. Reducing informal work is a policy objective in developed and developing countries alike. Yet, particularly since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, most socio-economic policy reforms across Europe have reduced the generosity of unemployment benefit schemes and deregulated employment protection. The authors argue that, while such reforms may have contributed to reducing unemployment, they might also have increased the incidence of informal work. Using European Social Survey data for 2004 - 12, they find that labour protection is effective in reducing informal wage employment." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Goel, Rajeev K. & Michael A. Nelson (2016): Robust determinants of the shadow economy. An international comparison. (CESifo working paper 5873), München, 36 S.

Abstract

"To synthesize the literature on determinants of the shadow economy, this paper uses three cross-national shadow economy measures and employs numerous determinants over hundreds of model combinations to identify robust determinants of the shadow economy and address modelling uncertainty. We find that bureaucratic complexity is more significant than monetary severity in driving shadow activity. The incentives of new shadow entrepreneurs are somewhat different. A one standard deviation increase in tax complexity increases overall shadow economy by over ten percent of the mean. In contrast, a similar increase in business startup costs increases new informal entrepreneurs by almost more than double." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hassan, Mai & Friedrich Schneider (2016): Size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries worldwide. Updated and new measures from 1999 to 2013. (IZA discussion paper 10278), Bonn, 46 S.

Abstract

"This paper is a first attempt to study the size and development of the shadow economies of 157 countries over 1999 to 2013. Using a MIMIC model, we find that higher tax and regulatory burden, unemployment and self-employment rates are drivers of the shadow economy, meaning that an increase of these causal variables increases the shadow economy. Our result also confirms previous findings of Friedrich Schneider, Andreas Buehn and Claudia Montenegro (2010). The estimated average of informality of 157 countries around the world, including developing, eastern European, central Asian and high income OECD countries averaged over 1999 to 2013 is 33.77% of official GDP. A critical discussion about the size of these macro-estimates comes to the conclusion that most likely the 'true' shadow economy of these countries is only 69% of their estimated macro-MIMIC-values." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Birthe Larsen (2016): Informal unemployment and education. In: IZA journal of labor economics, Jg. 5, S. 1-36. DOI:10.1186/s40172-016-0048-6

Abstract

"This paper develops a four-sector equilibrium search and matching model with informal sector employment opportunities and educational choice. We show that underground activities reduce educational attainments if informal employment opportunities mainly are available for low-educated workers. A more zealous enforcement policy will in this case improve educational incentives as it reduces the attractiveness of remaining a low-educated worker. However, unemployment also increases. Characterizing the optimal enforcement policies, we find that relatively more audits should be targeted towards the sector employing low-educated workers; elsewise, a too low stock of educated workers is materialized." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Mac Géidigh, Donal, Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum (2016): Grey matters: Charting the development of the shadow economy. (CESifo working paper 6234), München, 59 S.

Abstract

"The shadow economy has long been an area of research for policymakers. The determinants of underground activity of late have been identified as high tax burdens and increased regulation, but has this relationship always existed? This seminal work examines the shadow economy in Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States over the past 145 (from 1870 to 2015) years using the Currency Demand Approach and finds that the underground economy is stabilising. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to estimate the size and development of the shadow economy over such a long period and due to this we get some new insights. Our results clearly show that the shadow economy in earlier times was considerably higher than in the last 50 years. This paper also analyses whether a plateau has been reached and questions what efforts could be made to further reduce this informal economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stiglitz, Joseph E. & Mark Pieth (2016): Overcoming the shadow economy. Berlin, 24 S.

Abstract

"There is a growing global consensus that the secrecy-havens-jurisdictions which undermine global standards for corporate and financial transparency-pose a global problem: they facilitate both money laundering and tax avoidance and evasion, contributing to crime and unacceptably high levels of global wealth inequality.
As economic leaders, the United States and Europe have an obligation to force financial centers to comply with global transparency standards. That they have the instruments to do so has been forcefully shown in the fight against terrorism. That they do not do so in the fight against corruption and tax avoidance and evasion is testimony to the power of the interests of those who benefit from secrecy.
In a globalized world, if there is any pocket of secrecy, funds will flow through that pocket. That is why the system of transparency has to be global. The US and EU are key in tipping the balance toward transparency, but this will only be the starting point: each country must play its role as a global citizen in order to shut down the shadow economy - and it is especially important that there emerge from the current secrecy havens some leaders to demonstrate that there are alternative models for growth and development.
Countries should position themselves proactively - not just complying with current minimal standards, but placing their economic development model at the cutting edge of the evolution of those standards. Each country must seriously consider whether it wants to be engaged in a never-ending struggle to catch up to the evolving international standards, or serve as a model, setting standards that others will eventually be forced to emulate." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Berdiev, Aziz N., Cullen Pasquesi-Hill & James W. Saunoris (2015): Exploring the dynamics of the shadow economy across US states. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 47, H. 56, S. 6136-6147. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2015.1064081

Abstract

"This article examines the dynamics of the shadow economy using data for 50 US states over the period 1998 - 2008. Using a panel VAR model, we analyse the impulse response of the shadow economy to an orthogonal shock in capital tax rates, educational attainment, union participation and gross state product. We find evidence of significant dynamics underlying the relationship between the shadow economy and its determinants. The results remain robust to alternate measures of the determinants of the shadow economy, alternate causal ordering of the variables in the system and conditioning on the level of income in each state." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bloch, Alice, Leena Kumarappan & Sonia Mckay (2015): Employer sanctions. The impact of workplace raids and fines on undocumented migrants and ethnic enclave employers. In: Critical social policy, Jg. 35, H. 1, S. 132-151. DOI:10.1177/0261018314545600

Abstract

"The context of this article is the use of employer sanctions, in the form of raids and fines on businesses found to be employing people who do not have permission to work in the UK, as a method of in-border immigration control. Drawing on qualitative interviews with undocumented migrants and ethnic enclave employers in London, this article examines the impact of sanctions from the perspectives of those who have been or are most likely to be affected. More specifically the article sheds light on individual experiences of and strategies against immigration enforcement raids, and the effect of raids on the labour market, conditions of work and more widely, on local community relations. The paper concludes that there is a disjuncture between the real impact of sanctions and at least some of the stated policy aims." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bosch, Mariano & Julen Esteban-Pretel (2015): The labor market effects of introducing unemployment benefits in an economy with high informality. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 75, H. April, S. 1-17. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.10.010

Abstract

"Unemployment benefit systems are nonexistent in many developing economies. Introducing such systems poses many challenges which are partly due to the high level of informality in the labor markets of these economies. This paper studies the consequences on the labor market of implementing an unemployment benefit system in economies with large informal sectors and high flows of workers between formality and informality. We build a search and matching model with endogenous destruction, on-the-jobsearch, and intersectoral flows, where agents in the economy decide optimally whether or not to formalize jobs. We calibrate the model for Mexico, and show that the introduction of an unemployment benefit system, where workers contribute when employed in the formal market and collect benefits when they lose their jobs, even if they obtain informal jobs, can lead to an increase in formality in the economy, while also producing small increases in unemployment. The exact impact of incorporating such benefits depends on the relative strength of two opposing effects: the generosity of the benefits and the level of the contributions that finance those benefits. We also show important policy complementarities with other interventions in the labor market. In particular, combining the unemployment benefit program with policies that reduce the cost of formality, such as lower employment taxes and firing costs, can produce greater decreases in informality and lower impacts on unemployment than when the program is applied in isolation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Camacho, Carmen, Fabio Mariani & Luca Pensieroso (2015): Illegal immigration and the shadow economy. (IZA discussion paper 9545), Bonn, 31 S.

Abstract

"We build a general equilibrium model in which both illegal immigration and the size of the informal sector are endogenously determined. In this framework, we show that indirect policy measures such as tax reduction and detection of informal activities can be used as substitutes for border enforcement, in order to contrast illegal immigration. We also find that a welfare-maximising Government that includes illegal immigration in its objective function, instead of focusing on the well-being of native workers only, will set the tax rate to a lower value." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Herwartz, Helmut, Egle Tafenau & Friedrich Schneider (2015): One share fits all? Regional variations in the extent of the shadow economy in Europe. In: Regional studies, Jg. 49, H. 4, S. 1575-1587. DOI:10.1080/00343404.2013.848034

Abstract

"Mit Hilfe des MIMIC-Ansatzes (multiple indicators multiple causes) und unter Berücksichtigung von räumlichen Effekten wird die Schattenwirtschaft der europäischen Regionen für die Jahre 2007 und 2008 geschätzt. Die kleinsten regionalen Schattenwirtschaftssektoren sind in Regionen von Holland und Dänemark zu finden. Die größten Sektoren findet man in Regionen von Griechenland, Polen, Portugal und Rumänien. In einigen Ländern gibt es bemerkenswerte Unterschiede in der Größe der regionalen Schattenwirtschaft, sodass die Durchschnittswerte für diese Länder verzerrt sind. Darüber hinaus verändern sich die Strukturhilfen von Seiten der EU für einige Regionen, falls die Schattenwirtschaft beim Ausweis ihres offiziellen BIP vollständig berücksichtigt werden würde." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Schneider, Friedrich (2015): Schattenwirtschaft und Schattenarbeitsmarkt. Die Entwicklungen der vergangenen 20 Jahre. In: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 16, H. 1, S. 3-25. DOI:10.1515/pwp-2015-0002

Abstract

"In diesem Übersichtsaufsatz präsentiert der Autor die verschiedenen Methoden zur Schätzung der Größe der Schattenwirtschaft und geht auf ihre Stärken und Schwächen ein. Dabei werden zunächst die Definition der Schattenwirtschaft und die Ursachen für das Entstehen derselben erörtert, worauf ein Überblick über die Ergebnisse der verschiedenen Schätzverfahren für Deutschland folgt. Sodann wird gezeigt, dass es keine ideale Methode zur Schätzung der Größe und der Entwicklung der Schattenwirtschaft gibt, wobei wegen der Flexibilität in der Anwendung mittlerweile der MIMIC-Schätzansatz am meisten für Makroschätzungen verwendet wird. Schließlich werden auch einige globale Schätzungen über die Größe der Schattenwirtschaft und des Schattenarbeitsmarktes vorgestellt und kritisch hinterfragt." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Schneider, Friedrich (2015): Schwarzarbeit, Steuerhinterziehung und Korruption. Was ökonomische und nicht-ökonomische Faktoren zur Erklärung beitragen. In: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 16, H. 4, S. 412-425. DOI:10.1515/pwp-2015-0026

Abstract

"In seiner Thünen-Vorlesung vor dem Verein für Socialpolitik gibt Friedrich Schneider einen Überblick über die theoretische Modellierung und empirische Evidenz zu wesentlichen Determinanten von Schwarzarbeit und Korruption. Als klassische Treiber der Schwarzarbeit benennt er überhöhte Steuern und Sozialversicherungsbeiträge, eine zu intensive Regulierung, ein mangelndes Angebot an staatlichen Gütern und Dienstleistungen, eine schwache Steuermoral, geringe Rechtssicherheit und schlechte öffentliche Institutionen - sowie die teilweise von denselben Missständen verursachte Korruption. Zunächst stellt Schneider Messverfahren, Modellierung und empirische Ergebnisse vor, in denen die Stärke des Einflusses der einzelnen Treiber aus der Makroperspektive sichtbar wird. Anschließend eruiert er aus der Mikroperspektive die ökonomischen und nicht-ökonomischen Bestimmungsgründe der Steuermoral, von der Höhe der Strafen bis hin zur Religiosität. Um Schwarzarbeit und Korruption einzudämmen, muss der Staat vor allem sein eigenes Angebot verbessern." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Tumen, Semih (2015): Skill acquisition in the informal economy and schooling decisions. Evidence from emerging economies. In: Labour, Jg. 29, H. 3, S. 270-290. DOI:10.1111/labr.12059

Abstract

"Informal jobs offer skill acquisition opportunities that may facilitate a future switch to formal employment for young workers. In this sense, informal training on the job may be a viable alternative to formal schooling in an economy with a large and diverse informal sector. In this paper, I investigate if these considerations are relevant for the schooling decisions of young individuals using panel data for 17 Latin American countries and micro-level data for Turkey. Specifically, I ask if the prevalence of informal jobs distorts schooling attainment. I concentrate on three measures of schooling outcomes: (1) secondary education enrollment rate; (2) out-of-school rate for lower secondary school; and (3) tertiary education graduation rate. I find that the secondary education enrollment rate is negatively correlated with the size of the informal economy, whereas the out-of-school rate is positively correlated. Moreover, the tertiary education graduation rates tend to fall as the informal employment opportunities increase. This means that informal training on the job may be crowding out school education in developing countries. Policies that can potentially affect the size of the informal sector should take into consideration these second-round effects on aggregate schooling outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Welter, Friederike, David Smallbone & Anna Pobol (2015): Entrepreneurial activity in the informal economy. A missing piece of the entrepreneurship Jigsaw puzzle. In: Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, Jg. 27, H. 5/6, S. 292-306. DOI:10.1080/08985626.2015.1041259

Abstract

"This paper takes stock of the current debate around the informal sector and informal entrepreneurship. Informal entrepreneurship represents a worldwide characteristic of entrepreneurial activity, the main distinguishing feature of which is that it is operating outside the law. Since what is legal can vary considerably between countries, studies of entrepreneurship which exclude informal activity must be considered partial. Moreover, it can be argued that the distinction between formal and informal is not black and white but rather shades of grey. Although informal economic activity is often more prominent in developing countries and transition economies, it is by no means confined to them. There are parts of the UK, for example, where local economies are dependent upon informal employment and for many goods and services. More generally, much of the home-based economic activities, such as cleaning, painting and decorating and other services, are typically provided, at least partially, in the informal sector. As a consequence, it is difficult to argue against including informal activity as part of the study of entrepreneurship, and particularly where the entrepreneurial potential of an economy is being assessed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Williams, Colin C. (2015): Explaining cross-national variations in the informalisation of employment. In: European Societies, Jg. 17, H. 4, S. 492-512. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2015.1051073

Abstract

"The aim of this paper is to better understand cross-national variations in the informalisation of employment by evaluating critically three contrasting explanations which variously represent informal employment as more prevalent in: poorer under-developed economies (modernisation thesis); societies with high taxes, corruption and state interference in the free market (neo-liberal thesis) and societies with inadequate levels of state intervention to protect workers (political economy thesis). To evaluate these rival explanations, the relationship between the variable informalisation of employment in 10 Central and East European countries, measured using data from a 2007 Eurobarometer cross-national survey involving 5769 face-to-face interviews, and their broader work and welfare regimes are analysed. The finding is that wealthier, less corrupt and more equal societies and those possessing higher levels of taxation, social protection and effective redistribution via social transfers are significantly more likely to have lower levels of informalisation. No evidence is thus found to support the neo-liberal tenets that the informalisation of employment results from high taxes and too much state interference in the free market but evidence is found to positively confirm the modernisation and political economy theses as explanations for the cross-national variations in the informalisation of employment. The paper concludes by discussing the tentative theoretical and policy implications of these findings and calling for further evaluation of their wider validity both longitudinally and across other global regions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Williams, Colin C. (2015): Out of the shadows: classifying economies by the extent and nature of employment in the informal economy. In: International Labour Review, Jg. 154, H. 3, S. 331-351. DOI:10.1111/j.1564-913X.2015.00245.x

Abstract

"Given the prevalence of informality, this article proposes a typology for classifying countries by the extent and nature of employment in the informal economy, rather than by the composition of their formal economies. The author analyses ILO data on employment in the informal economy in 36 developing countries, and shows that there is a significant correlation between cross-national variations in the degree and intensity of informalization and cross-national variations in social and economic indicators such as levels of GNP per capita, corruption, poverty, taxation and social contributions. The article concludes by discussing implications for theory and policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Acosta-González, Eduardo, Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (2014): An empirical examination of the determinants of the shadow economy. In: Applied Economics Letters, Jg. 21, H. 5, S. 304-307. DOI:10.1080/13504851.2013.856993

Abstract

"Using a statistical methodology guided only by data and based on a genetic algorithm, we select the best econometric model for explaining the determinants of the size of the shadow economy, its main determinants being: taxes on capital gains of individuals, corporate taxes on income, profits and capital gains, domestic credit, bank secrecy, ethnic fractionalization, urban population, globalization, corruption and the socialist legal origin of country." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Broughton, Andrea (2014): Undeclared work in the EU. Dublin, 14 S.

Abstract

"This survey data report examines the main findings on the supply side of undeclared work around the EU based on a Special Eurobarometer survey carried out in 2013. The report examines the survey methodology, the concept of undeclared work, the characteristics of those supplying goods and services on an undeclared basis, the types of work activities that are undeclared, and income levels from undeclared work, including the extent of the practice of offering cash in hand." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Doerrenberg, Philipp & Denvil Duncan (2014): Experimental evidence on the relationship between tax evasion opportunities and labor supply. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 68, H. May, S. 48-70. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.02.005

Abstract

"Motivated by the observation that access to evasion opportunities is distributed heterogeneously across the labor market, this paper examines the extent to which labor supply elasticities with respect to tax rates depend on such evasion opportunities. We first discuss the channels through which access to evasion affects labor supply responses and then set up a laboratory experiment (N=205) in which all participants undertake a real-effort task over several rounds. Subjects face a tax rate that varies across rounds and are required to pay taxes on earned income. The treatment group is given the opportunity to underreport income, while the control group is not. We find evidence that participants in the treatment group respond differently to changes in the net-of-tax rate than participants in the control group. The effect is more prevalent when tax rates fall. Additionally, the direction of the treatment effect is dependent on the evolution of tax rates across rounds." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schneider, Friedrich (2014): The shadow economy and shadow labor force. A survey of recent developments. (IZA discussion paper 8278), Bonn, 66 S.

Abstract

"This survey presents the various methods to estimate the size of the shadow economy, their strengths and weaknesses and the estimation results. The purpose of the survey is threefold. Firstly, it demonstrates that no ideal method to estimate the size and development of the shadow economy exists. Because of its flexibility, the MIMIC method used to get macroestimates of the size of the shadow economy is discussed in greater detail. Secondly, the paper focuses on the definition and causal factors of the shadow economy as well as on a comparison of the size of the shadow economy using different estimation methods. Thirdly, estimations of the size of the shadow economy and shadow labor force are presented and discussed." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Schneider, Friedrich (2014): Outside the state: The shadow economy and shadow economy labor force. (CESifo working paper 4829), München, 28 S.

Abstract

"In this paper the main focus lies on the shadow economy and on work in the shadow. The most influential factors on the shadow economy are tax policies and state regulation. The size of the shadow economy was decreasing over 1999 to 2007 from 34.0% to 31.2% for 161 countries (unweighted average). Furthermore, economic opportunities, taxes and regulations, the general situation on the labor market, and unemployment are crucial for an under-standing of the dynamics of the shadow labor force. Opposite to the decrease of the shadow economy (value added figures), the shadow economy labor force increased for most countries over the period 1999 to 2007." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Williams, Colin C. & Sara Nadin (2014): Evaluating the participation of the unemployed in undeclared work. Evidence from a 27-nation European survey. In: European Societies, Jg. 16, H. 1, S. 68-89. DOI:10.1080/14616696.2012.677051

Abstract

"This paper evaluates critically the major competing perspectives regarding the participation of the unemployed in undeclared work. These are firstly, the 'marginalisation' perspective which holds that the unemployed disproportionately participate in and gain from undeclared work, and secondly, the 'reinforcement' perspective which holds that the unemployed benefit less from undeclared work than those in declared employment, meaning that undeclared work reinforces, rather than reduces, the inequalities produced by the declared realm. Reporting the results of a 2007 Eurobarometer survey on undeclared work comprising 26,659 face-to-face interviews conducted in the 27 member states of the European Union, the finding is that the marginalisation perspective is applicable to Southern Europe and the reinforcement perspective to Nordic nations. However, in East-Central Europe and Western European nations, as well as the EU-27 as a whole, the marginalisation and reinforcement perspectives are not mutually exclusive but co-exist; the unemployed are more likely to participate in undeclared work but receive significantly lower earnings and gain less from undeclared work than those working undeclared who are in declared jobs. The outcome is a call for a new 'reinforced marginalisation' perspective which holds that the unemployed disproportionately engage in undeclared work but their participation reinforces their marginalised position relative to the employed. The paper then seeks tentative explanations for these findings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Williams, Colin C. (2014): Out of the shadows: a classification of economies by the size and character of their informal sector. In: Work, employment and society, Jg. 28, H. 5, S. 735-753. DOI:10.1177/0950017013501951

Abstract

"Given that 60 per cent of the global workforce is in the informal sector, this article develops a typology that classifies economies according to, firstly, where different countries sit on a continuum of informalization and, secondly, the character of their informal sectors. This is then applied to the economies of the 27 member states of European Union (EU-27). Finding a clear divide from east to west and south to north in the EU-27, with the more informalized and wage-based informal economies on the eastern/southern side and the less informalized and more own-account informal economies on the western/Nordic side, it is then revealed that formalization and more own-account informal sectors are significantly correlated with wealthier and more equal (as measured by the gini-coefficient) countries in which there is greater labour market intervention, higher levels of social protection and more effective redistribution via social transfers. The article concludes by discussing the implications for theory and practice." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bosh, Mariano & Lídia Farré (2013): Immigration and the informal labor market. (IZA discussion paper 7843), Bonn, 25 S.

Abstract

"This paper investigates the relationship between immigration and the size of the informal or underground economy. Using regional variation for the Spanish provinces we find that the massive immigration wave between 2000 and 2009 is highly correlated to the share of unregistered employment, a proxy for the size of the underground or informal labor market. We estimate that a 10 percentage points increase in the share of immigrants in a region generates between a 3 and 8 percentage points increase in unregistered employment. We also find that the controversial regularization of illegal aliens conducted in 2005 substantially reduced the number of illegal workers but did not affect the relationship between immigration and informality." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Buehn, Andreas & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (2013): Impact of education on the shadow economy. Institutions matter. In: Economics Bulletin, Jg. 33, H. 3, S. 2052-2063.

Abstract

"Using panel data for more than 80 countries from 1999-2007 this paper studies the marginal effect of education on the shadow economy, particularly considering the quality of institutions. The results show that higher levels of education fuel the shadow economy in an environment of weak political institutions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Elgin, Ceyhun (2013): Internet usage and the shadow economy. Evidence from panel data. In: Economic Systems, Jg. 37, H. 1, S. 111-121. DOI:10.1016/j.ecosys.2012.08.005

Abstract

"The enormous spread of the internet in the last 20 years has been having various economic consequences. In this paper I ask whether the spread of the internet aided or abetted the shadow economy. To this end, using a panel data of 152 countries over 9 years from 1999 to 2007, I examine the empirical relationship between the degree of internet usage and the size of the shadow economy. Panel and cross-section estimation results indicate that the association between internet usage and shadow economy size strongly interacts with GDP per-capita. I also suggest and then empirically test an economic mechanism to account for this observation." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Haigner, Stefan D., Stefan Jenewein, Friedrich Schneider & Florian Wakolbinger (2013): Driving forces of informal labour supply and demand in Germany. In: International Labour Review, Jg. 152, H. 3/4, S. 507-524. DOI:10.1111/j.1564-913X.2013.00191.x

Abstract

"The authors empirically investigate people's reasons for supplying or using informal labour, on the basis of data obtained from a 2010 survey of German residents. Building on existing research, they find that being unemployed, or having been unemployed in the past, significantly increases the probability of supplying informal labour. In addition, dissatisfaction with one's relative standing in society, and annoyance at government inefficiency, both have a significant positive effect on male informal labour supply. Informal labour demand, however, is not affected by these factors." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Zitatform

Kirchner, Antje, Ivar Krumpal, Mark Trappmann & Hagen von Hermanni (2013): Messung und Erklärung von Schwarzarbeit in Deutschland. Eine empirische Befragungsstudie unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Problems der sozialen Erwünschtheit. In: Zeitschrift für Soziologie, Jg. 42, H. 4, S. 291-314., 2013-05-11. DOI:10.1515/zfsoz-2013-0403

Abstract

"Der Beitrag geht der Frage nach, wie das Ausmaß von Schwarzarbeit in Deutschland im Rahmen von Befragungen der allgemeinen Bevölkerung möglichst valide geschätzt werden kann. In einem experimentellen Design wird die konventionelle direkte Befragungstechnik mit zwei Spezialtechniken, der Randomized-Response-Technik (RRT) und der Item-Count-Technik (ICT), verglichen. Die RRT und die ICT wurden für die Messung besonders heikler Verhaltensweisen entwickelt und sollen durch eine Erhöhung der Anonymität in der Interviewsituation sozial erwünschtes Antwortverhalten reduzieren. Unsere Befunde zeigen, dass die häufig angenommene Wirkung der beiden Spezialtechniken auf die Bereitschaft der Befragten, sozial unerwünschtes Verhalten zu berichten, nicht eindeutig ausfällt. Zudem werden theoretisch bedeutsame Einflussfaktoren von Schwarzarbeit diskutiert und deren Wirkung im Rahmen von multiplen Regressionsanalysen empirisch überprüft. Neben Gelegenheitsstrukturen sind vor allem soziale Normen gute Prädiktoren für die individuelle Entscheidung schwarzzuarbeiten." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Zitatform

Schneider, Friedrich (2013): Der Einfluss eines abgeschwächten Wirtschaftsaufschwunges auf die Schattenwirtschaft in Deutschland und anderen OECD-Staaten in 2013. Ein (erneuter) Rückgang. Linz, 20 S.

Abstract

"Im Jahr 2009 hatte die Weltfinanzkrise auch die 'Realwirtschaft' in Deutschland und viele andere OECD-Länder erfasst, sowie einen Anstieg der Schattenwirtschaft in Deutschland und in den meisten OECD-Ländern verursacht. Allerdings haben viele OECD-Länder bereits in 2010 oder in 2011 die Wirtschaftskrise überwunden und das in den meisten Ländern beträchtliche Wachstum der offiziellen Wirtschaft führte wieder zu einem Rückgang der Schattenwirtschaft. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden das Ausmaß und die zeitliche Entwicklung der Schattenwirtschaft in Deutschland wieder diskutiert, da viele weniger Anreiz haben, schwarz zu arbeiten, wenn in der offiziellen Wirtschaft auch zusätzlichen Einnahmen erzielt werden können. Zusätzlich werden von Seiten der Politik wiederum Maßnahmen (Senkung der Rentenbeitragssätze, Erhöhung der Verdienstgrenze bei den Mini-Jobs, etc.) ergriffen, die schattenwirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten weniger attraktiv machen. Der Beitrag informiert über die Entwicklung der Schattenwirtschaft in Deutschland und in weiteren 20 OECD-Ländern seit 1990 und liefert erste Berechnungen über die Schattenwirtschaft von 21 OECD Ländern für das Jahr 2013." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)