Beschreibung

"The expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) implies cointegration between interest rates of different maturities and predicts certain values for adjustment speed. We estimate reduced-form vector error correction models of the US term structure. These are derived from a structural model combining the EHT, auto-correlated risk premia, interest rate smoothing and monetary policy feedback, which is able to capture a wide range of empirical outcomes. We explicitly test the necessary preconditions for the validity of the theoretical model. Premia persistence rises with longer-rate maturity, while the influence of the according spreads in the central bank reaction function diminishes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))