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Sustainable growth in the EU: enhancing productivity growth while respecting the planetary boundaries

In the light of global megatrends such as ageing, globalisation, technological transformation and climate change, the 2019 ESDE is dedicated to sustainability.

One of the major sustainability challenges is sluggish productivity growth despite accelerating technological change and the increasing qualification levels of the EU labour force. We explore the preconditions for sustained economic growth, based on region-level and firm-level data analysis, focusing on complementarities between efficiency, innovation, human capital, job quality, fairness and working conditions. We identify policies that could boost productivity without increasing inequality.

We examine the impact of climate action on the economy and on employment, income and skills. In the light of EU welfare losses from climate inaction, we examine the sectors in which employment and value generation are taking place in the EU economy, estimate the overall impact of climate action in EU Member States, following a full implementation of the Paris agreement, on GDP and employment, as well as its potential impact on job polarisation.

Our main conclusion is that tackling climate change and preserving growth go hand in hand. We highlight a number of policy options to preserve the EU's competitiveness, sustain growth and spread its benefits to the entire EU population, while pursuing an ambitious transition to a climate-neutral economy.

CANCELLED – Higher Education Dropout and Labor Market Integration: Experimental Evidence

Thousands of students leave higher education without graduating, and worry about the negative consequences of dropping out on labour market success. However, research on how employers evaluate higher education dropouts is lacking. And while studies on school-to-work transitions are plentiful, most of them focus on the consequences of successfully attained educational qualifications – and ignore the consequences of unsuccessfully attempted qualifications.

Drawing on human capital, signalling, and credentialism theories, we conducted a series of factorial survey experiments with random samples of employers (N = 1350) to answer the following research questions: First, what is the causal effects of a dropout on the hiring prospects for different types of positions? Second, which factors facilitate labor market entry for dropouts?

Our findings indicate that employment chances depend heavily on the type of job dropouts compete for, and on the mode and duration of the study episode.

ABGESAGT – New Work – Ideen, Umsetzung, Stolpersteine in Wissenschaft, Unternehmen und Behörden

Statistical Profiling and Machine Learning in the area of Labour Market Policy

I will talk a bit on how we use machine learning in general in the area of labour market policy in DK, and how we relate this to our core business of producing results on employment and education.
As a specific example of our work, I will illustrate our statistical profiling of newly unemployed, both the technical/methodological side as well as the practical implementation and general experiences in this area, and some thoughts on further development.
Finally I will talk a bit on other more recent areas of developing datadriven solutions in the field of labour market policy, drawing perspectives to new possibilities deriving from machine-learning and modern Technology

Digital Tools to Facilitate Job Search

Unemployment insurance systems in modern labor markets are riddled with a multitude of rules and regulations governing job seekers' economic situation and their incentives to search for employment. These include, for instance, detailed regulations specifying individuals' benefit level and potential benefit duration, job search requirements, conditions for avoiding benefit sanctions, possibilities for earning extra income or additional benefit entitlements by working in part-time or short-term jobs, etc. The complexity of UI systems makes it challenging for job seekers to understand the prevailing rules, their built-in incentives, and the resulting consequences for their personal economic situation. This is potentially problematic, as a lack of understanding may distort individuals' job search incentives and employment prospects.

In this paper, we report the results from a randomized controlled trial among the universe of registered Danish job seekers that studies how reducing complexity affects individuals' understanding of UI benefit rules and labor market behavior. Our intervention exploits an online information tool that provides individuals with continuously updated, personalized information on their remaining UI benefit period, their accumulated working time that can be used to prolong the potential benefit duration, as well as information on essential rules regarding job seekers' benefit duration and benefit sanctions. We match the data from our experiment with data from an online survey and rich information from administrative records to evaluate the causal effects of our intervention on individuals' understanding of the prevailing labor market rules, their job search behavior, and resulting labor market outcomes.

Evidence on the Role of Caseworkers and Public Employment Services

This talk will summarize two studies, which respectively study the role of caseworkers and public employment services for the labor market outcomes of unemployment benefit recipients. A first study asks whether and how much caseworkers matter for the outcomes of unemployed individuals. It exploits exogenous variation in unplanned absences among Swiss unemployment insurance caseworkers. A second study evaluates a large-scale policy change in which the public employment service of one Swiss canton changed its strategy by removing restrictions on job search and granting increased autonomy to job seekers.

Income Taxation and Job Creation

Optimal Taxation with On-the-Job Search

Markt oder Moral? Brauchen wir eine neue Wirtschaftsethik?

Immer mehr Menschen sehen die soziale Marktwirtschaft durch Profitgier diskreditiert und verbinden unser Wirtschaftssystem mit wachsender sozialer Spaltung, Klimakollaps, Raubbau an der Natur und Ausbeutung der Dritten Welt. Der „Ehrbare Kaufmann“, so scheint es vielen, hat ausgedient. Grund genug, über eine neue Wirtschaftsethik nachzudenken, die wieder den Menschen und seine Lebensgrundlagen in den Mittelpunkt stellt. Doch wie kann diese aussehen? Und wie kann sie verbindlich umgesetzt werden? Darüber diskutierte eine hochkarätig besetzte Podiumsrunde bei den Nürnberger Gesprächen.

Good jobs, bad jobs, no jobs at all – was bringt die Arbeitswelt der Zukunft?

Digitalisierung, ökologische Transformation, demografischer Wandel – die Arbeitswelt befand sich schon vor Corona im Umbruch. Welche Folgen diese Entwicklungen haben, ist nicht zuletzt angesichts des Corona-Schocks noch völlig unklar – zumal sie teilweise in sehr unterschiedliche Richtungen wirken.

Daraus ergeben sich zahlreiche Fragen: Was wird zuerst knapp – die Arbeit, weil sie von Robotern erledigt wird, oder die Arbeitskräfte, weil immer mehr junge Menschen fehlen? Droht uns Massenarbeitslosigkeit oder dürfen sich die Beschäftigten auf einen Arbeitsmarkt freuen, auf dem sie die Forderungen stellen, nicht die Arbeitgeber? Werden gut bezahlte Industriejobs durch schlecht bezahlte Dienstleistungsjobs verdrängt? Oder schaffen neue Technologien, etwa im Umweltbereich, neue gut bezahlte Jobs? Schreitet die Globalisierung fort oder wird sie zurückgedreht – aufgrund von Handelskriegen, steigender Energiepreise oder als Reaktion auf die Covid-19-Pandemie? Und was würde dies für die Arbeitsplätze bedeuten, die vom Export abhängen? Wie können wir unseren Wohlstand halten und gute Arbeitsplätze für möglichst viele Menschen sichern?