We examine the properties of a recommender system we developed at the Public Employment Service (PES) in France, prior to its implementation in the field. The algorithm uses past matches and a very large set of covariates to produce, for each job seeker, a ranking of the available offers and score each pair jobseeker-offer. Using a calibration step that takes advantage of the observation of application sequences, it gives a predicted "matching probability" for each pair. After a theoretical discussion about the possible strategies to design a recommender system, we compare this new machine learning (ML) algorithm with another matching tool, mimicking the one currently used at the PES, based on a score measuring the "closeness" between the jobseeker's search criteria or preferences and the characteristics of the offer. We quantify the trade-off between the matching probability and the later "preference score" when switching from one system to the other. Next, we examine the issue of congestion. We show that, on the one hand the ML algorithm based on past matches tends to increase congestion and on the other hand that this strongly reduces its performance. Finally, we show that the use of optimal transport to derive recommendations from the matching probability matrix significantly alleviates this problem. The main lesson at this stage is that an algorithm ignoring preferences and competition in the labor market would have very limited performances but that tweaking the algorithm to fit these dimensions substantially improves its properties, at least "in the lab".
Archiv: IAB-Veranstaltungen
TASKS VI: The Digital and Ecological Transformation of the Labour Market
Digital technologies can be both labour-saving and labour-augmenting, thereby changing the division of labour between humans and machines. While an increasing range of tasks can be automated, new tasks arise at the same time. This digital transformation is likely to interact with the ecological transformation towards a climate-friendly economy, both of which will shape the future of work. On top of that, the Covid-19 pandemic induced fast changes in the organisation and location of work. The aim of this conference is to bring together economists, sociologists and researchers from related fields to discuss frontier research on labour market effects of processes associated with the digital and ecological transformation. Special focus lies on the following questions:
- How does the division of tasks between workers and machines develop?
- Do green jobs differ from non-green jobs in terms of skills and human capital?
- How does the digital and ecological transformation affect labour market, firm and individual outcomes?
- How do job contents and tasks evolve and how do workers adapt?
- What is the role of education and training in preparing the workforce for new knowledge and skills requirements?
- How does the Covid-19 pandemic affect both types of transformations? And what does the pandemic reveal about the interactions between gender, education, work requirements and tasks?
- How can policy cushion potential negative outcomes related to these transformations?
- How do we measure the digital and ecological transformation and categorise related tasks?
- What can we learn from new (big) data sources like job advertisements?
European Meeting of the International Microsimulation Association 2022
The conference is open to all areas of microsimulation, including static and dynamic microsimulation, agent-based models, behavioural models, and all applied and methodological contributions related to microsimulation. Moreover, there will also be thematic streams during the conference (organised together with partners in brackets):
- Labour markets and welfare policies (Dr. Kerstin Bruckmeier, Institute for Employment Research IAB)
- Comparative analysis on taxes and benefits (Salvador Barrios, PhD, Joint Research Centre, European Commission)
- Dynamic microsimulation (Prof. Ralf Münnich, MikroSim FOR2559)
- Health (Ieva Skarda, PhD, Centre for Health Economics at the University of York)
- Agriculture and environment (Prof. Cathal O’Donoghue, National University of Ireland, Galway; University of Maastricht)
Total Global? Strategien für eine geschlechtergerechte Internationalisierung der Wissenschaft
Wie kann im Rahmen der Internationalisierungsstrategien von Universitäten und außeruniversitären Forschungseinrichtungen die Gleichstellung der Geschlechter angemessen berücksichtigt werden? Wie können potenzialreiche internationale Wissenschaftlerinnen nach Deutschland geholt und gefördert werden? Wie können gleichzeitig inländische Wissenschaftlerinnen auf den internationalen Markt vorbereitet werden?Das Barcamp hinterfragt die entwickelten Maßnahmen zur Internationalisierung an deutschen Forschungsinstitutionen auf ihre gleichstellungspolitischen Chancen und Risiken hin.
Betriebliche Herausforderungen vor, während und nach der COVID-19-Krise
Bei der Fachtagung „Wissenschaft trifft Praxis“ zum Thema „Betriebliche Herausforderungen vor, während und nach der COVID-19-Krise“ diskutieren Expertinnen und Experten aus Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft mit Vertreterinnen und Vertretern der Politik, den Sozialpartnern und der Öffentlichkeit über Potenziale und Schwierigkeiten, denen sich Betriebe – auch angesichts der anhaltenden COVID-19-Krise – in unserer Arbeitswelt gegenübersehen. Die Veranstaltung möchte auf Basis aktueller Forschungsergebnisse und Erfahrungen aus der Praxis den gegenwärtigen Zustand der Betriebe in Deutschland reflektieren, um daraus ableitbare Handlungsoptionen für die Politik zur Diskussion zu stellen.
The German Labor Market in a Globalized World: Trade, Technology, and Demographics
The conference focuses on technology, trade, and demographic changes and the ways they interact with employment, wages, and participation in the labor market, with a particular emphasis on the role of institutions and on labor markets during the COVID-19 crisis. Understanding these relationships is key in assessing the performance of the labor market and for the design of effective labor market policies. We invite empirical and theoretical contributions on these topics from all areas of economics and sociology with a focus on labor, education, health, or human resource management.
The conference will be held in-person. It is sponsored by the German Research Foundation (DFG) as part of the Priority Program 1764 “The German Labor Market in a Globalized World” and will also mark the end of the program.
Deutschland im demografischen Dilemma – woher sollen die Arbeitskräfte kommen?
Es ist eine Furcht, die nicht nur die Unternehmen umtreibt: Deutschland drohen auf breiter Front die Arbeitskräfte wegzubrechen. Schon jetzt herrschen in vielen Bereichen Engpässe. Mit 1,69 Millionen erreichte die Zahl der offenen Stellen bereits im vierten Quartal 2021 – also mitten in der Corona-Krise – ein Allzeithoch. Dabei steht uns die volle Wucht des demografischen Wandels erst noch bevor. Denn es gehen sehr viel mehr Ältere in Rente, als Jüngere nachrücken – eine Schere, die sich in den nächsten Jahren immer weiter öffnet. So umfasst der geburtenstärkste Jahrgang – 1964 – derzeit knapp 1,4 Millionen Menschen. Zum Vergleich: Bei den 2011 Geborenen, dem bislang geburtenschwächsten Jahrgang, sind es nur gut 700.000. „Wir werden vom demografischen Wandel überrollt“, fürchtet denn auch Daniel Terzenbach, Vorstandsmitglied der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (BA). Zugleich braucht Deutschland mehr Fachkräfte denn je: So sollen in naher Zukunft Abertausende von Solardächern montiert, Windrädern aufgestellt und Wohnungen neu gebaut oder energetisch saniert werden. Wer soll Ältere und Kranke pflegen? Doch woher sollen all die Arbeitskräfte kommen? Die Klimawende – und nicht nur sie – droht am Personalmangel zu scheitern. Die Herausforderungen sind ebenso zahlreich wie schwierig: Wie können Ältere länger im Erwerbsleben gehalten werden? Wie schaffen wir es, dass Frauen ihre Arbeitszeit erhöhen? Wie lassen sich die vielen Langzeitarbeitslosen wieder in Lohn und Brot bringen? Wie kann Inklusion im Arbeitsmarkt verbessert werden? Doch selbst wenn all dies gelingen sollte – es wird nicht reichen. Es braucht deutlich mehr (qualifizierte) Zuwanderung als bisher, laut BA-Chef Detlef Scheele 400.000 mehr Zuzüge als Fortzüge – und dies jedes Jahr. Doch wie kann Deutschland mehr begehrte Arbeitskräfte aus dem Ausland anlocken, um die heimischen Lücken zu füllen? Hinzu kommt: Jahr für Jahr kehrte eine Million Menschen unserem Land den Rücken. Wie lassen sich diese Menschen dazu motivieren, in Deutschland zu bleiben? Diese und weitere Fragen wollen wir mit Expertinnen und Experten aus Politik, Wirtschaft, Wissenschaft und Arbeitsverwaltung diskutieren.
Labour markets during and after the COVID-19 pandemic
With the COVID-19 pandemic in its third year, the question how the former has affected labour markets and economic policies continues to be of prime importance. Has the pandemic led to lasting changes in the organization of work? Which workers, firms or regions will benefit from such changes? Thus far, research has mainly focussed on the pandemic’s initial impact. Much less is known about its effects in the medium run and if early adjustments have turned into permanent changes. As more data is becoming available, it is now possible to assess how individual labour market biographies have been affected; how firms adapted to disruptions in their production processes; how the effects of the pandemic differed between regions, sectors or occupations; and whether certain policies have been changed permanently as a result of the crisis. The purpose of this workshop is to bring together researchers to present and discuss current work on the labour market consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- How have individual labour market biographies been affected by the pandemic?
- Do pandemic effects differ between groups of individuals and have there been changes in labour market inequality?
- Has the pandemic led to labour market scarring?
- How have school-to-work transitions, entries into training or transitions from training into employment been affected?
- How has the allocation of household or care tasks changed during the pandemic?
- Has occupational mobility changed as a result of the pandemic?
- How have firms responded to the pandemic?
- How has the adoption of working-from-home schemes affected firms’ production processes?
- Has the pandemic led to more investment in digital technologies and how has this affected the workers at the firm?
- Has occupation- or task-specific labour demand changed during the pandemic?
- How has short-term work been used during the pandemic?
- Have firms adjusted their (international) supply chains?
- Have urban labour markets become less attractive?
- Have regional labour market disparities increased as a result of the pandemic?
Short-time work in economic crises
The Covid crisis revived the interest in the topic of short-time work (sometimes also known as furlough schemes or work sharing). In many countries, the schemes were utilised in unprecendented ways. The Institute for Employment Research organises a one-day online workshop on May 13, 2022 that focuses on current research on short-time work. Contributions may address the Covid crisis or previous economic crises. Both theoretical and applied papers with both micro- and macroeconomic approaches are welcome.
The workshop provides the opportunity for timely exchange on cutting-edge research on a specific topic. Presentations and discussions should spur the debate on usage, effects and design of a crucial labour market instrument.
Why Working From Home Will Stick
COVID-19 drove a mass social experiment in working from home (WFH). We survey more than 30,000 Americans over multiple waves to investigate whether WFH will stick, and why. Our data say that 20 percent of full workdays will be supplied from home after the pandemic ends, compared with just 5 percent before. We develop evidence on five reasons for this large shift: better-than-expected WFH experiences, new investments in physical and human capital that enable WFH, greatly diminished stigma associated with WFH, lingering concerns about crowds and contagion risks, and a pandemic-driven surge in technological innovations that support WFH. We also use our survey data to project three consequences: First, employees will enjoy large benefits from greater remote work, especially those with higher earnings. Second, the shift to WFH will directly reduce spending in major city centers by at least 5-10 percent relative to the pre-pandemic situation. Third, our data on employer plans and the relative productivity of WFH imply a 5 percent productivity boost in the post-pandemic economy due to re-optimized working arrangements. Only one-fifth of this productivity gain will show up in conventional productivity measures, because they do not capture the time savings from less commuting.