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Giupponi, Giulia, Robert Joyce, Attila Lindner, Tom Waters, Thomas Wernham & Xiaowei Xu (2024): The Employment and Distributional Impacts of Nationwide Minimum Wage Changes. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 42, H. S1, S. S293-S333. DOI:10.1086/728471

Abstract

"We assess the impact of nationwide minimum wages on employment throughout the whole wage distribution by exploiting geographical variation in the level of wages. We find a substantial increase in wages at the bottom of the wage distribution, while we detect a small, statistically insignificant negative effect on employment. Combining the estimated change in the wage distribution with a tax and benefit microsimulation model, we show that the minimum wage generates considerable proportional income gains up to the middle of the household income distribution." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Andrieu, Elodie & Malgorzata Kuczera (2023): Minimum Wage and Skills - Evidence from Job Vacancy Data. (TPI working papers / The Productivity Institute 034), Manchester, 62 S.

Abstract

"Low-wage occupations tend to be populated by workers with low levels of education. An increase in the minimum wage, while designed to protect workers in the lower part of the wage distribution, might result in unintended consequences for those same workers. In this paper, we study firms’ reaction to higher minimum wages, exploiting a change to the minimum-wage policy in the UK in 2016. We document how an increase in the minimum wage affects the labour hiring for different education and technical skill levels of workers. The results show that an increase in the minimum wage compressed both the demand for low educated workers and the demand for workers with low levels of technical skills (tech workers) for graduates in low and middle skilled occupations. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we find that a large and unexpected change to the minimum wage led to a 11 percentage point decrease in the proportion of non-graduate vacancies and a 15 percentage point decline in the share of low-tech ads. There is evidence for labour-labour substitution at the low-end of the skill distribution and labour-technology substitution for more educated workers as a way to compensate for labour costs increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fazio, Andrea & Tommaso G. Reggiani (2023): Minimum Wage and Tolerance for High Incomes. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16107), Bonn, 27 S.

Abstract

"We suggest that stabilizing the baseline income can make low-wage workers more tolerant towards high income earners. We present evidence of this attitude in the UK by exploiting the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW), which institutionally sets a baseline pay reducing the risk of income losses and providing a clear reference point for British workers at the lower end of the income distribution. Based on data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we show that workers who benefited from the NMW program became relatively more tolerant of high incomes and more likely to support and vote for the Conservative Party. As far as tolerance for high incomes is related to tolerance of inequality, our results may suggest that people advocate for equality also because they fear income losses below a given reference point." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fazio, Andrea & Tommaso Reggiani (2023): Minimum wage and tolerance for high incomes. In: European Economic Review, Jg. 155. DOI:10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104445

Abstract

"We suggest that stabilizing the baseline income can make low-wage workers more tolerant towards high income earners. We present evidence of this attitude in the UK by exploiting the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW), which institutionally sets a baseline pay reducing the risk of income losses and providing a clear reference point for British workers at the lower end of the income distribution. Based on data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), we show that workers who benefited from the NMW program became relatively more tolerant of high incomes and more likely to support and vote for the Conservative Party. As far as tolerance for high incomes is related to tolerance of inequality, our results may suggest that people advocate for equality also because they fear income losses below a given reference point." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))

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Hamilton, Reg & Matt Nichol (2023): One Hundred Years of Dynamic Minimum Wage Regulation: Lessons from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. In: International Labour Review, Jg. 162, H. 3, S. 407-429. DOI:10.1111/ilr.12380

Abstract

"Since the first minimum wage legislation was introduced in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States in the early 1900s, minimum wage regulation has attracted controversy. Opponents of minimum wage levels rely on market theory, while supporters acknowledge the role of markets in setting the price of labour but justify state intervention based on principles of equity and social good. This article examines how these two ideological positions influenced fixing what is both a crucial cost for business and underpinning of worker and family living standards, and whether effective wage fixing has resulted. Little comparative research exists on the origins, evolution and current systems of minimum wage regulation in the three countries and this article aims to address this gap in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Mabbett, Deborah (2023): In the shadow of hierarchy: minimum wage commissions in the UK and Germany. In: Socio-economic review, Jg. 21, H. 4, S. 2117-2135. DOI:10.1093/ser/mwad027

Abstract

"The adoption of statutory minimum wages (MWs) has been accompanied by institutional innovations in the relationship between governments, employers and unions. In the UK and Germany, MW commissions were created to recommend or determine the MW. Their memberships are dominated by trade unionists and employers. Structures that engage the social partners 'in the shadow of hierarchy' can be efficient as well as politically expedient. They will be stable if, first, the social partners can establish a consensual basis for decisions and, second, this consensus position is near enough to the government's position not to trigger intervention. The first condition has been met but not the second: both in the UK and Germany, governments have overridden employers and unions in order to introduce higher MWs. The article explores why this has happened and draws out the implications for MW fixing and the stability of shadow-of-hierarchy arrangements." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Winters, Jutta; Alan Manning (interviewte Person) (2023): Alan Manning: "It is important to have institutions such as the minimum wage to adress the market power of employers" (Interview). In: IAB-Forum H. 05.06.2023 Nürnberg. DOI:10.48720/IAB.FOO.20230605.02

Abstract

"Professor Alan Manning, one of the world’s most renowned labour market economists, explains in this video-statement the basic idea of imperfect competition in the labour market. He elaborates on the power of employers to keep wages lower than they would be in a competitive market and stresses the importance to address this imbalance with institutions such as the minimum wage." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fazio, Andrea & Tommaso Reggiani (2022): Minimum wage and tolerance for inequality. (MUNI ECON working paper 2022-07), Brno, 19 S.

Abstract

"We suggest that people advocate for equality also because they fear income losses below a given reference point. Stabilizing their baseline income can make workers more tolerant of inequality. We present evidence of this attitude in the UK by exploiting the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW), which institutionally set a baseline pay reducing the risk of income losses for British workers at the bottom of the income distribution. Based on data from the British Household Panel Survey, we show that workers that benefited from the NMW program became relatively more tolerant of inequality and more likely to vote for the Conservative party." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Manning, Alan (2022): Der flüchtige Beschäftigungseffekt des Mindestlohns. In: A. Heise & T. Pusch (Hrsg.) (2022): Mindestlöhne – Szenen einer Wissenschaft, S. 137-174.

Abstract

"Mit der Vielzahl von Papieren, die versuchen, den Effekt von Mindestlöhnen auf die Beschäftigung zu schätzen, steigt die Gefahr, den Blick auf die Frage nach dem 'Warum' zu verlieren. Insbesondere auf die Frage, warum es so schwer ist, negative Beschäftigungseffekte von Mindestlöhnen auszumachen. Vielleicht gibt es gewisse ökonomische Faktoren, die den kleinen und oftmals ambivalenten Effekt des Mindestlohns auf die Beschäftigung erklären? Oder vielleicht sind Arbeitsmärkte fundamental von anderen Märkten verschieden? Diese Anliegen sollen in diesem Beitrag diskutiert werden. Die Schlussfolgerung ist, dass der Beschäftigungseffekt des Mindestlohns schwer fassbar ist, aber auch, dass die Ökonomen hiervon nicht überrascht sein sollten, wenn man bedenkt, wie Arbeitsmärkte funktionieren, in denen Abweichungen vom vollständigen Wettbewerb viel größer sind als in vielen anderen Märkten. Tatsächlich mag es an der Zeit sein, dass die Forschung einen Schritt vorwärts macht und sich die Frage stellt, wie weit der Mindestlohn erhöht werden kann, ohne signifikante Beschäftigungseffekte auszulösen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)

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Sousounis, Panos & Gauthier Lanot (2022): Minimum Wage Effects on Reservation Wages. In: Journal of labor research, Jg. 43, H. 3, S. 415-439. DOI:10.1007/s12122-022-09337-y

Abstract

"Reservation wages are part of the transmission mechanism between minimum wages and unemployment via the labour force participation decision. The limited available empirical evidence on the relationship between reservation wages and legal minimum wages suggest that individuals use minimum wages as benchmarks against which their reservation wages are set. This has a profound behavioural effect that may encourage individuals to either enter the labour force or price themselves out of potential employment. We employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to explore the influence of minimum wages on reservation wages. Our findings suggest that the behavioural response is too small to be extracted from the variability of the reservation wage data. For policy makers this finding is important. While minimum wages raise earnings and living standards, they can push some workers out of the labour force by increasing their reservation wage beyond the minimum. We do not find any evidence of such a response of the reservation wage of jobseekers to the minimum wage in the UK." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))

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Cribb, Jonathan, Giulia Giupponi, Robert Joyce, Attila Lindner, Tom Waters, Thomas Wernham & Xiaowei Xu (2021): The distributional and employment impacts of nationwide Minimum Wage changes. (IFS working paper / Institute for Fiscal Studies 2021,48), London, 40 S.

Abstract

"We estimate the effect of the introduction of the UK's National Living Wage in 2016, and increases in it up to 2019, using a new empirical method. We apply a bunching approach to a setting with no geographical variation in minimum wage rates. We effectively compare employment changes in each part of the wage distribution in low-wage areas to employment changes among similar workers living in higher-wage areas who are less exposed to increases in the national minimum wage because their nominal wages are further above it. We find substantial positive wage effects, including statistically significant spillovers up to around the 20th percentile of wages. Overall we find small negative effects on employment which are not statistically significant. We combine these estimates with a tax and benefit microsimulation model to estimate the impact on household incomes. The largest gains go to the middle of the overall working-age income distribution, though they are more concentrated within the bottom third if we consider only households with someone in paid work. The gains to poorer working households are limited by the withdrawal of means tested benefits as earnings increase. Effects of minimum wages on household incomes are very sensitive to the size of employment effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Datta, Nikhil & Stephen Machin (2021): Living wages and age discontinuities for low-wage workers. (CEP discussion paper 1803), London, 30 S.

Abstract

"This paper considers an emerging, highly policy relevant feature of minimum wages, studying what happens when a wage floor significantly higher than a nationally legislated minimum is imposed. The consequences of age-wage discontinuities and wage floors higher than mandated minimum wages are explored in the context of a Living Wage being introduced to a large UK organisation through time. Between 2011 and 2019, the Company was exposed to a Living Wage Rate higher than the statutory National Minimum Wage, which was sequentially introduced into some of its establishments and had the effect of boosting wages and strongly increasing the age-wage discontinuity from age-related pay grades. The analysis finds positive labour supply responses at the age discontinuity before Living Wage treatment, but a fall in hours at the discontinuity following treatment. The Living Wage raised wage costs but did not affect aggregate hours, showing a within-establishment reallocation of hours by age arising from differential eligibility to be paid the Living Wage." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Lesch, Hagen, Helena Schneider & Christoph Schröder (2021): Mindestlohnanpassung und Living Wage. Was kann Deutschland von Frankreich und dem Vereinigten Königreich lernen? (IW-Analysen 145), Köln, 72 S.

Abstract

"Nach dem Mindestlohngesetz hat die Mindestlohnkommission die Aufgabe, alle zwei Jahre über eine Anpassung des Mindestlohns zu entscheiden. Neben einer Gesamtabwägung soll sie sich dabei nachlaufend an der Tariflohnentwicklung orientieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Manning, Alan (2021): The elusive employment effect of the minimum wage. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 35, H. 1, S. 3-26. DOI:10.1257/jep.35.1.3

Abstract

"It is hard to find a negative effect on the employment effect of rises in the minimum wage: the elusive employment effect. It is much easier to find an impact on wages. This paper argues the elusive employment effect is unlikely to be solved by better data, methodology, or specification. The reasons for the elusive employment effect are the factors contributing to why the link between higher minimum wages and higher labor costs are weaker than one might think and because imperfect competition is pervasive in the labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Vadean, Florin & Stephen Allan (2021): The Effects of Minimum Wage Policy on the Long-Term Care Sector in England. In: BJIR, Jg. 59, H. 2, S. 307-334. DOI:10.1111/bjir.12572

Abstract

"The increase in the National Minimum Wage rate in October 2015 and the introduction of the National Living Wage in April 2016 led, in a short period of time, to an aggregated increase in the wage floor of over 10 per cent for workers in England aged 25 and over. The long-term care (LTC) sector is a labour intensive, low pay sector, and as such, can be substantially affected by changes in minimum wage. We assessed the effects of this exogenous wage increase on independent LTC providers by looking at effects on wages, employment, weekly hours, and employment contracts. Using data from the Adult Social Care Workforce Data Set (ASC-WDS) and applying a “before-after” analysis, we found that the substantial increase in minimum wage had a strong and positive effect on wages in the LTC sector, but with substantial compression of the wage distribution at the lower end. Although, as in other studies, the employment effect was rather elusive, we found that for care homes this can be partially explained by a negative effect on total weekly hours. We also found positive but short-term effects on employment without guaranteed working hours (i.e. zero-hour contracts) for both residential and domiciliary care." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Roth, Duncan (2020): Nichteinhaltung des Mindestlohns in Deutschland. Stellungnahme des IAB zur öffentlichen Anhörung des Ausschusses für Arbeit, Gesundheit und Soziales im Landtag Nordrhein-Westfalen am 9.9.2020. (IAB-Stellungnahme 07/2020), Nürnberg, 11 S.

Abstract

"Seit dem 1. Januar 2015 gilt in Deutschland ein einheitlicher gesetzlicher Mindestlohn. Zwar belegen Forschungsergebnisse einen positiven Effekt auf Löhne am unteren Ende der Lohnverteilung, der mit der Einführung des Mindestlohns einhergeht. Dieser Befund bedeutet jedoch nicht, dass es keine Unterschreitung des Mindestlohns gibt. Wie viele Personen unterhalb der Mindestlohngrenze bezahlt werden, ist bisher nicht abschließend geklärt worden. Die Einschätzungen zu dieser Frage reichen von etwa 483.000 Personen im Jahr 2018 bis zu 2,4 Millionen Personen. In dieser Stellungnahme werden die Schwierigkeiten beschrieben, das Ausmaß der Nichteinhaltung mit den vorliegenden Datensätzen abzuschätzen. Für eine bessere Einordnung werden darüber hinaus entsprechende Einschätzungen zur Mindestlohnunterschreitung aus anderen Ländern zusammengefasst. Abschließend werden aktuelle Erkenntnisse zur Frage beschrieben, inwiefern die Aufzeichnungspflicht dazu beiträgt, das Ausmaß der Nichteinhaltung zu reduzieren." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Brewer, Mike, Thomas Crossley & Federico Zilio (2019): What do we really know about the employment effects of the UK's national minimum wage? (IZA discussion paper 12369), Bonn, 34 S.

Abstract

"A substantial body of research on the UK's National Minimum Wage (NMW) has concluded that the the NMW has not had a detrimental effect on employment. This research has directly influenced, through the Low Pay Commission, the conduct of policy, including the subsequent introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW). We revisit this literature and offer a reassessment, motivated by two concerns. First, much of this literature employs difference-in-difference designs, even though there are significant challenges in conducting appropriate inference in such designs, and they can have very low power when inference is conducted appropriately. Second, the literature has focused on the binary outcome of statistical rejection of the null hypothesis, without attention to the range of (positive or negative) impacts on employment that are consistent with the data. In our re-analysis of the data, we conduct inference using recent suggestions for best practice and consider what magnitude of employment effects the data can and cannot rule out. We find that the data are consistent with both large negative and small positive impacts of the UK National Minimum Wage on employment. We conclude that the existing data, combined with difference-in-difference designs, in fact offered very little guidance to policy makers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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D'Arcy, Connor & David Finch (2019): The calculation of a living wage: The UK's experience. In: Transfer, Jg. 25, H. 3, S. 301-317. DOI:10.1177/1024258919847313

Abstract

"Das theoretische Konzept eines living wage in der Praxis in konkrete Zahlen umzusetzen, ist mit einer Reihe von Problemen verbunden. Eine vor kurzem durchgeführte Übersicht über die Vorgehensweisen in Großbritannien hat sich näher damit befasst, um zu einer einheitlichen und verbesserten Berechnungsgrundlage zu kommen. Die Ausgestaltung eines living wage hängt von einer Reihe technischer Entscheidungen zum Beispiel darüber ab, welche Datenquellen am besten zur Berechnung geeignet sind. Viele der Grundlagen jedoch, auf denen ein living wage basiert, erfordern eine Festlegung auf gesellschaftliche Werte, Erwartungen und Normen. Die Höhe des living wage in Großbritannien wird auf voluntaristischer Basis festgelegt und von Kampagnengruppen diskutiert und unterstützt; jede Methodik muss also auf soliden empirischen Erkenntnissen beruhen, gleichzeitig aber auch die Realitäten berücksichtigen, mit denen Arbeitgeber konfrontiert werden. Es kann also keine perfekte Vorgehensweise geben. Durch Analysen, Anhörung von Interessengruppen und eine klare Governancestruktur bietet die in London und im Rest Großbritanniens verwendete Methode ein belastbares, anerkanntes und zeitgemäßes Verfahren, um das für einen angemessenen Lebensstandard erforderliche Einkommen zu berechnen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Johnson, Mathew, Aristea Koukiadaki & Damian Grimshaw (2019): The Living Wage in the UK: testing the limits of soft regulation? In: Transfer, Jg. 25, H. 3, S. 319-333. DOI:10.1177/1024258919845768

Abstract

"Der vorliegende Artikel ist eine kritische Bewertung des in Großbritannien vor fast 20 Jahren eingeführten Living Wage und seiner Vor- und Nachteile. Es lässt sich belegen, dass die Erhöhung der Stundenlöhne signifikant war und offenbar keine oder nur geringe negative Auswirkungen auf Arbeitsplätze oder Arbeitszeiten hatte. Der Fall Großbritanniens zeigt jedoch auch, dass die Einführung eines Living Wage alleine nicht ausreicht ohne einen koordinierten Ansatz zu dessen universellen Umsetzung und ohne eine Verknüpfung mit einer effektiven Tarifpolitik. Unzureichende Koordinierung erklärt den sehr geringen Anteil an Niedriglohnempfängern, die von einem freiwilligen Living Wage abgedeckt werden. Eine schwache Verknüpfung mit Tarifverhandlungen bedeutet, dass selbst dort, wo ein Living Wage von einem Niedriglohn-Arbeitgeber eingeführt wurde, weitergehende Ausstrahlungseffekte (z.B. durch die Wahrung des Lohngefälles) sehr selten auftreten.
Die Autoren argumentieren, dass die freiwillige Akkreditierung bei der Living Wage Foundation von den Arbeitgebern zwar immer mehr als ein wichtiges Symbol der 'Unternehmensethik' gesehen wird, der Living Wage aber weiterhin ein relativ isoliertes Instrument der Lohnfestlegung in Großbritannien bleibt.
Dies ist nicht nur das Ergebnis der Freiwilligkeit der Kampagne, sondern auch der begrenzten Möglichkeiten eines direkten Zusammenwirkens mit anderen Mechanismen der Lohnfindung in Großbritannien - trotz der zahlreichen Belege, dass sich Living Wages und tarifvertraglich ausgehandelte Lohnstrukturen wechselseitig ergänzen. Der Artikel schließt mit der Untersuchung der unterschiedlichen Mechanismen, mit denen der Living Wage im Niedriglohn-Arbeitsmarktsegment weiter durchgesetzt und verankert werden könnte." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Bargain, Olivier, Karina Doorley & Philippe Van Kerm (2018): Minimum wages and the gender gap in pay. New evidence from the UK and Ireland. (IZA discussion paper 11502), Bonn, 46 S.

Abstract

"Women are disproportionately in low paid work compared to men so, in the absence of rationing effects on their employment, they should benefit the most from minimum wage policies. This study examines the change in the gender wage gap around the introduction of minimum wages in Ireland and the United Kingdom. Using survey data for the two countries, we develop a decomposition of the change in the gender differences in wage distributions around the date of introduction of minimum wages. We separate out 'price' effects attributed to minimum wages from 'employment composition' effects. A significant reduction of the gender gap at low wages is observed after the introduction of the minimum wage in Ireland while there is hardly any change in the UK. Counterfactual simulations show that the difference between countries may be attributed to gender differences in non-compliance with the minimum wage legislation in the UK." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bell, Brian & Stephen Machin (2018): Minimum wages and firm value. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 36, H. 1, S. 159-195. DOI:10.1086/693870

Abstract

"How does firm value change in response to a minimum wage hike? This paper exploits the announcement of a big change in the UK minimum wage that was both totally unanticipated and free of uncertainty. The stock market response to this is examined in an event study setting. The analysis uncovers significant falls in the stock market value of low-wage firms. In light of this finding, the paper concludes by discussing magnitudes of response, including longer-term modes of firm adjustment to the cost shock induced by the minimum wage hike." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Christl, Michael, Monika Köppl-Turyna & Dénes Kucsera (2018): Revisiting the employment effects of minimum wages in Europe. In: German economic review, Jg. 19, H. 4, S. 426-465. DOI:10.1111/geer.12135

Abstract

"The aim of this study is to estimate the relationship between the minimum wage and the employment rate of young individuals, taking into account potential nonlinearity. In a cross-country setup of European countries, we find a significant nonlinear relationship between the minimum wages and employment rate of young individuals. Theoretically, while low minimum wages can indeed be positively associated with employment, after a certain level of the minimum wage, the relationship turns negative. This implies that there is an optimal level of minimum wages that maximizes the employment rate of young individuals. We additionally show that the negative relationship between minimum wages and employment of young workers is stronger if labor markets are otherwise strictly regulated and when workers are relatively unproductive. Using these results, we are able to calculate country-specific turning points and show that some European countries in our sample might in fact contribute to high unemployment rates among young individuals by setting minimum wages too high. However, in other European countries, especially the Eastern European countries, an increase in minimum wages (up to a certain level) might even lead to higher employment rates of young individuals." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Fidrmuc, Jan & J. D. Tena (2018): UK national minimum wage and labor market outcomes of young workers. In: Economics. The open-access, open-assessment e-journal, Jg. 12, S. 1-28. DOI:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2018-5

Abstract

"The UK national minimum wage (NMW) is age-specific with the most important threshold at the age of 22 (lowered to 21 from 2010 onwards) when workers become eligible for the adult rate. The authors estimate the impact of this threshold on employment by means of a regression discontinuity analysis. Because this threshold is known in advance, they investigate the presence of discontinuities in both the level and the slope of employment probabilities at different ages around the threshold. Their results indicate that turning 22 does not significantly change the employment probability. However, they find a significant change in the slope of the probability of being employed around one year before, suggesting a smooth deterioration of employment probability before turning 22 rather than a sudden change at a particular age. This finding is confirmed by a difference-in-difference analysis. However, no such effect can be found during the period preceding the introduction of the NMW." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fidrmuc, Jan & Juan D. Tena (2018): Minimum wage and young workers: UK evidence. In: ifo DICE report, Jg. 16, H. 4, S. 19-22.

Abstract

"In our research, we consider UK young workers aged between 18 and the age that makes them eligible for the adult rate of the national minimum wage. Such workers are considered adults in the UK: they can drive (if they have a driver's license), handle and sell age-restricted goods such as tobacco and alcohol, and work late or long hours. As such, they can be considered substitutes for slightly older workers, except that the latter may be slightly more experienced. Therefore, individuals just below and just above the age threshold should, arguably, be essentially perfect substitutes in terms of their productivity and experience - yet they are subject to different minimum-wage rates." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Giupponi, Giulia & Stephen Machin (2018): Changing the structure of minimum wages. Firm adjustment and wage spillovers. (CEP discussion paper 1533), London, 76 S.

Abstract

"This paper analyses the economic impact of a significant change to the structure of a minimum wage setting policy. The context is the United Kingdom where government mandated an unexpected change in the structure of minimum wages and their setting in 2016 by introducing a new minimum wage - the National Living Wage (NLW) - for workers aged 25 and over. The new NLW rate was significantly higher than the minimum wage for those under age 25. The analysis studies the consequences of this change in a sector containing many low wage workers, the care homes industry. The new minimum wage structure and associated higher minimum wage for those aged 25 and above significantly affected wages, but at the same time with little evidence of adverse employment effects, nor firm closure. Rather the margin of adjustment used to offset the sizable wage cost shock was a significant deterioration of the quality of care services. There is also strong evidence of wage spillovers as younger workers wages rose in tandem with the higher adult minimum wage, but with no impact on their employment. Based on further empirical tests, employer preference for fairness seems to offer the most plausible explanation for these results." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Swaffield, Jo, Carolyn Snell, Becky Tunstall & Jonathan Bradshaw (2018): An evaluation of the living wage. Identifying pathways out of in-work poverty. In: Social policy and society, Jg. 17, H. 3, S. 379-392. DOI:10.1017/S1474746417000136

Abstract

"This article reports the results of a case study on the introduction of the living wage. Three employers in the City of York became living wage employers. Using data derived from a sample survey of their employees and qualitative interviews, this article explores what impact the receipt of the living wage had on poverty and deprivation. It found that not all living wage employees were income poor or deprived, although those on living wage rates were more likely to be poor and deprived than those on even higher wages. The more important determinant of the employees' living standards was the household they lived in, and there were a high proportion of living wage employees living in multi-unit households. Also important were the number of earners in the household and the hours worked by the living wage employee. Lone parent families and single people appeared to be most vulnerable to poverty and deprivation. In addition, whether the employee took up their entitlement to in-work benefits was critical and, using benefit checks by welfare rights experts, it was found that some were not." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Europäische Kommission. Generaldirektion Beschäftigung, Soziales und Integration (2018): The effects of the minimum wage on employment. Evidence from a panel of EU Member States. (Analytical web note 2018,01), Brüssel, 14 S. DOI:10.2767/816632

Abstract

"This note estimates the employment effects of statutory minimum wages for a panel of EU member states. Statistically significant negative effects of the minimum wage are found for young adults (ages 20-24), with estimated elasticities of about - 0.15 to - 0.2 in the preferred specifications. This means that a 10% increase in the minimum wage is associated with a 1.5% to 2% decrease in the employment rate of young adults, an estimate that is consistent with the range found in the previous literature. At the same time, results are unstable for the broader youth age group (ages 15-24). Further, statistically significant negative effects are found for low-skilled workers that are similar in magnitude to the effects for young adults. The effect of the minimum wage on the overall employment rate (ages 15-64) is estimated to be negative, but it is relatively small in magnitude and statistically not significant. Finally, the note documents that results are sensitive to the specification, in particular to whether controls of country-specific time trends are included." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Atkinson, Anthony B., Chrysa Leventi, Brian Nolan, Holly Sutherland & Iva Valentinova Tasseva (2017): Reducing poverty and inequality through tax-benefit reform and the minimum wage: the UK as a case-study. (EUROMOD working paper 2017,13), Colchester, 41 S.

Abstract

"Atkinson’s book Inequality: What Can Be Done? (Harvard University Press, 2015) sets out a range of concrete proposals aimed at reducing income inequality, which cover a very broad span but include major changes to the income tax and social transfers system and the minimum wage. These are framed with specific reference to the UK but have much broader relevance in demonstrating how substantial the impact on inequality of such measures could be. This paper assesses the first-round effects of these tax, transfer and minimum wage reforms on income inequality and poverty based on a microsimulation approach using EUROMOD. The reforms involve a significantly more progressive income tax structure, a major increase in the minimum wage to the level which is estimated to represent the ‘Living Wage’, and alternative routes to reforming social transfers – either to strengthen the social insurance element or to restructure the entire system as a Participation Income (a variant of Basic/Citizen’s Income). The results show how the first-round effects of either set of tax and transfer proposals would be to substantially reduce the extent of income inequality and relative income poverty and the paper draws out how the two approaches differ in their effects. The additional impact of raising the minimum wage to the Living Wage is modest, reflecting in particular the position of beneficiaries in the household income distribution and the offsetting effects on household income of the withdrawal of means-tested cash transfers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Cabras, Stefano, Jan Fidrmuc & Juan de Dios Tena (2017): Minimum wage and employment. Escaping the parametric straitjacket. In: Economics. The open-access, open-assessment e-journal, Jg. 11, S. 1-20. DOI:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2017-15

Abstract

"Parametric regression models are often not flexible enough to capture the true relationships as they tend to rely on arbitrary identification assumptions. Using the UK Labor Force Survey, the authors estimate the causal effect of national minimum wage (NMW) increases on the probability of job entry and job exit by means of a non-parametric Bayesian modelling approach known as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The application of this methodology has the important advantage that it does not require ad-hoc assumptions about model fitting, number of covariates and how they interact. They find that the NMW exerts a positive and significant impact on both the probability of job entry and job exit. Although the magnitude of the effect on job entry is higher, the overall effect of NMW is ambiguous as there are many more employed workers. The causal effect of NMW is higher for young workers and in periods of high unemployment and they have a stronger impact on job entry decisions. No significant interactions were found with gender and qualifications." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fidrmuc, Jan & J. D. Tena (2017): UK national minimum wage and labor market outcomes of young workers. (Economics. Discussion papers 2017-80), Kiel, 36 S.

Abstract

"The UK national minimum wage (NMW) is age-specific with the most important threshold at the age of 22 (lowered to 21 from 2010 onwards) when workers become eligible for the adult rate. The authors estimate the impact of this threshold on employment by means of a regression discontinuity analysis. Because this threshold is known in advance, they investigate the presence of discontinuities in both the level and the slope of employment probabilities at different ages around the threshold. Their results indicate that turning 22 does not significantly change the employment probability. However, they find a significant change in the slope of the probability of being employed around one year before, suggesting a smooth deterioration of employment probability before turning 22 rather than a sudden change at a particular age. This finding is confirmed by a differencein- difference analysis. However, no such effect can be found during the period preceding the introduction of the NMW." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riley, Rebecca & Chiara Rosazza Bondibene (2017): Raising the standard. Minimum wages and firm productivity. In: Labour economics, Jg. 44, H. January, S. 27-50. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2016.11.010

Abstract

"This paper exploits the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) in Britain and subsequent increases in the NMW to identify the effects of minimum wages on productivity. We find that the NMW increased average labour costs for companies that tend to employ low paid workers, both upon the introduction of the NMW and more recently following the Great Recession when many workers experienced pay freezes or wage cuts, but the NMW continued to rise. We find evidence to suggest that companies responded to these increases in labour costs by raising labour productivity. These labour productivity changes did not appear to come about via a reduction in firms' workforce or via capital-labour substitution. Rather they were associated with increases in total factor productivity, as theories of organisational change, training and efficiency wages would suggest." (Author's abstract, 䗏 2017 Elsevier) ((en))

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Bell, Brian & Stephen Machin (2016): Minimum wages and firm value. (CEP discussion paper 1404), London, 47 S.

Abstract

"How does the value of a firm change in response to a minimum wage hike? The evidence we have to date is not well-suited to answer this question, principally because events that have been studied are not completely unknown to the stock market or have uncertainty associated with them. This paper exploits the announcement of a sizeable change in the minimum wage in the UK that was both totally unanticipated and free of uncertainty. The stock market response of employers of minimum wage workers is examined in an event study setting, looking at minute-by-minute changes surrounding the announcement and at cumulative abnormal returns on a daily basis before and after the announcement. The analysis uncovers significant falls in the stock market value of low wage firms. The size of the fall in value is compared to the fall in profitability in response to the wage cost shock that will be induced by the announcement and is seen to be of a comparable magnitude." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Bossler, Mario (2016): Mindestlohn in Deutschland, Großbritannien und in den USA. In: Wirtschaftsdienst, Jg. 96, H. 6, S. 422-425., 2016-04-29. DOI:10.1007/s10273-016-1992-2

Abstract

"Die Diskussion über die Auswirkungen des allgemeinen gesetzlichen Mindestlohns in Deutschland ist in vollem Gange. Erste Evaluationsergebnisse zeigen, dass der Mindestlohn in Deutschland nur einen moderaten Beschäftigungsverlust nach sich zog, wobei langfristige Auswirkungen zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt schwierig zu schätzen sind. Während in Deutschland gefordert wird, den Mindestlohn mit Augenmaß und unter Berücksichtigung bestehender Evidenz zu erhöhen, werden Mindestlöhne in Großbritannien und den USA teilweise über die bisherigen empirischen Erfahrungen hinaus angehoben." (Autorenreferat, © Springer-Verlag)

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Cabras, Stefano, Jan Fidrmuc & Juan de Dios Tena (2016): Minimum wage and employment. Escaping the parametric straitjacket. (Economics. Discussion papers 2016-17), Kiel, 23 S.

Abstract

"Parametric regression models are often not flexible enough to capture the true relationships as they tend to rely on arbitrary identification assumptions. Using the UK Labor Force Survey, the authors estimate the causal effect of national minimum wage (NMW) increases on the probability of job entry and job exit by means of a non-parametric Bayesian modelling approach known as Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The application of this methodology has the important advantage that it does not require ad-hoc assumptions about model fitting, number of covariates and how they interact. They find that the NMW exerts a positive and significant impact on both the probability of job entry and job exit. Although the magnitude of the effect on job entry is higher, the overall effect of NMW is ambiguous as there are many more employed workers. The causal effect of NMW is higher for young workers and in periods of high unemployment and they have a stronger impact on job entry decisions. No significant interactions were found with gender and qualifications." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fahn, Matthias (2016): Minimum wages and relational contracts. (CESifo working paper 5986), München, 39 S.

Abstract

"The need to give incentives is usually absent in the literature on minimum wages. However, especially in the service sector it is important how well a job is done, and employees must be incentivized to perform accordingly. Furthermore, many aspects regarding service quality cannot be verified, which implies that relational contracts have to be used to provide incentives. The present article shows that in this case, a minimum wage increases implemented effort, i.e., realized service quality, as well as the efficiency of an employment relationship. Hence, it can be explained why productivity and service quality went up after the introduction of the British National Minimum Wage, and that this might actually have caused a more efficient labor market. Furthermore, if workers have low bargaining power, a higher minimum wage also increases firm profits and consequently employment. Therefore, the present article presents a new perspective on reasons for why minimum wages often have no or only negligible employment effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Manning, Alan (2016): The elusive employment effect of the minimum wage. (CEP discussion paper 1428), London, 25 S.

Abstract

"There is a huge body of empirical research on the employment effect of the minimum wage that has failed to clearly demonstrate the negative effect that so many economists strongly believe to find. This paper reviews the reasons for this and argues that the literature needs to re-focus to further our knowledge on the topic." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Stops, Michael (2016): Essays on matching processes and effects of institutional changes on regional and occupational labour markets. (IAB-Bibliothek 359), Bielefeld: Bertelsmann, 196 S. DOI:10.3278/300907w

Abstract

"Die Frage, wie der Arbeitsmarkt funktioniert und welchen Einfluss die Politik ausüben kann, ist ein Dauerbrenner in der gesellschaftlichen und politischen Debatte. Das hierzu nötige Wissen speist sich aus der Arbeitsmarktforschung, die häufig Impulse aus dem Alltagsgeschäft der Arbeitsmarktpolitik bekommt. Umgekehrt laden Fortschritte in der Methodenentwicklung und der Datenerschließung die Arbeitsmarktpolitik dazu ein, neue Fragen aufzuwerfen, die bisher nicht beantwortet werden konnten.
Michael Stops greift solche Entwicklungen auf und fokussiert drei Themenbereiche:
Berufliche Mobilität und Effizienz des Arbeitsmarktausgleichs;
Die Entwicklung der Effizienz des Arbeitsmarktausgleichs vor, während und nach den Jahren der deutschen Arbeitsmarktreformen 2003 - 2005 auf beruflichen Teilarbeitsmärkten;
Die Wirkung des flächendeckenden Mindestlohns in Großbritannien auf die Beschäftigung 1999 - 2012." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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International Labour Office (2016): Global wage report 2016/17. Wage inequality in the workplace. (Global wage report 05), Genf, 114 S.

Abstract

"The 2016/17 edition examines inequality at the workplace level, providing empirical evidence on the extent to which wage inequality is the result of wage inequality between enterprises as well as within enterprises. The report also includes a review of key policy issues regarding wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Belman, Dale, Paul Wolfson & Kritkorn Nawakitphaitoon (2015): Who is affected by the minimum wage? In: Industrial relations, Jg. 54, H. 4, S. 582-621. DOI:10.1111/irel.12107

Abstract

"Prior surveys of empirical research on the minimum wage have been organized around the question 'What does the minimum wage affect?' This survey is organized around the question 'Who is affected by the minimum wage?' We review the consequences of the minimum wage for teens and young workers, men and women, African Americans and Hispanics, the less educated, workers in low wage industries, and low-wage/low-income populations. Although there is almost universal agreement that the minimum wage boosts earnings, evidence for a negative employment effect varies between mixed and nonexistent. An important gap in the literature is the paucity of research on low-wage/low-income groups." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Brewer, Mike & Paola De Agostini (2015): The National Minimum Wage and its interaction with the tax and benefits system. A focus on Universal Credit. (EUROMOD working paper 2015,02), Cambridge, 55 S.

Abstract

"This paper uses the UK module of EUROMOD to examine the likely impact of Universal Credit (UC) on the incomes and work incentives of families containing NMW workers ('NMW families'). It in part updates previous work done for the Low Pay Commission (Brewer, May and Phillips, 2009). The analysis was completed after the 2012 Autumn Statement, but before the Spring 2013 Budget, and so does not reflect any changes to personal taxes and benefits for 2014-15 announced then." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dickens, Richard, Rebecca Riley & David Wilkinson (2015): A re-examination of the impact of the UK national minimum wage on employment. In: Economica, Jg. 82, H. 328, S. 841-864. DOI:10.1111/ecca.12158

Abstract

"Early work on the national minimum wage (NMW) suggested that policymakers in the UK had succeeded in raising the pay of low-paid workers without impairing their employment prospects. This paper shows that when we focus on the most vulnerable workers, part-time females, the NMW appears to be associated with reductions in employment retention. These negative impacts were evident when the NMW was introduced and also when it was increased faster than average wages in the mid-2000s. We also show that these falls in employment among part-time females are exacerbated by the recession." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dolton, Peter, Chiara Rosazza Bondibene & Michael Stops (2015): Identifying the employment effect of invoking and changing the minimum wage. A spatial analysis of the UK. In: Labour economics, Jg. 37, H. December, S. 54-76., 2015-09-28. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2015.09.002

Abstract

"This paper assesses the impact of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) on employment in the UK over the 1999-2010 period explicitly modelling the effect of the 2008-10 recession. Identification of invoking a NMW is possible by reference to a pre-period (prior to 1999) without a NMW. Separate identification of the effect of incremental changes (and year interaction effects) in the NMW is facilitated by variation in the bite of the NMW across local labour markets. We address the issues of: possible endogeneity and dynamic structure of employment rate changes; regional demand side shocks induced by the recession; and take account of the spatial dependence of local labour markets. Using System GMM we conclude that there is no discernable effect of the NMW introduction or its uprating on employment but show how more naïve estimation may have revealed the various widely different positive and negative effects found in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Riley, Rebecca & Chiara Rosazza Bondibene (2015): Raising the standard. Minimum wages and firm productivity. (NIESR discussion paper 449), London, 35 S.

Abstract

"This paper exploits the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) in Britain and subsequent increases in the NMW to identify the effects of minimum wages on productivity. We find that the NMW increased average labour costs for companies that tend to employ low paid workers, both upon the introduction of the NMW and more recently following the Great Recession when many workers experienced pay freezes or wage cuts, but the NMW continued to rise. We find evidence to suggest that companies responded to these increases in labour costs by raising labour productivity. These labour productivity changes did not come about via a reduction in firms' workforce or via capital-labour substitution. Rather they were associated with increases in total factor productivity, consistent with organisational change, training and efficiency wage responses to increased labour costs from minimum wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Abstract

"This report reviews the National Minimum Wage (NMW) including the state of the economy and the labour market and the operation of the NMW. It makes recommendations for the level of each of the different rates of the NMW which the Low Pay Commission (LPC) believes should apply from October 2015.
The government had also asked us to consider whether any changes can be made to the Apprentice Rate to make the structure simpler and improve compliance and whether the structure and level of the Apprentice Rate should continue to be applied to all levels of apprenticeship, including higher levels; Our recommendation on this is given in chapter 4 'Review of the Structure of the Apprentice Rate' of the report." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Dickens, Richard, Rebecca Riley & David Wilkinson (2014): The UK minimum wage at 22 years of age. A regression discontinuity approach. In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, Statistics in Society, Jg. 177, H. 1, S. 95-114. DOI:10.1111/rssa.12003

Abstract

"A regression discontinuity approach is used to analyse the effect of the legislated increase in the UK national minimum wage that occurs at age 22 years on various labour market outcomes. Using data from the Labour Force Survey we find an increase of 3 - 4 percentage points in the rate of employment of low skilled individuals. Unemployment declines among men and inactivity among women. We find no such effect before the national minimum wage was introduced and no robust impacts at age 21 or 23 years. Our results are robust to a range of specification tests." (Author's abstract, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))

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Papps, Kerry (2014): Career wage profiles and the minimum wage. (IZA discussion paper 8421), Bonn, 21 S.

Abstract

"A model of on-the-job training in the presence of a minimum wage is presented. This predicts that the minimum wage will have a negative effect on a worker's subsequent wage growth when the labour market is competitive but a U-shaped effect when it is not competitive. This prediction is then tested using data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings in the United Kingdom. Workers who were affected by the minimum wage before age 22 are found to have significantly lower wage growth later in life than others, but only if they worked on jobs that were not covered by a collective labour agreement. Evidence suggests that this difference in wage growth reflects differences in productivity between workers. The results reconcile previous theoretical predictions by Becker and Acemoglu and Pischke." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Fidrmuc, Jan & J. D. Tena (2013): National minimum wage and employment of young workers in the UK. (CESifo working paper 4286), München, 30 S.

Abstract

"We analyze the impact of the UK national minimum wage (NMW) on the employment of young workers. The previous literature found little evidence of an adverse impact of the NMW on the UK labor market. We focus on the age-related increases in the NMW at 18 and 22 years of age. Using regression discontinuity design, we fail to find any effect of turning 22. However, we find a significant and negative employment effect for male workers at 21, which we believe to be an anticipation effect. We also find a negative effect for both genders upon turning 18. The age-related NMW increases may have an adverse effect on employment of young workers, with this effect possibly occurring already well in advance of reaching the threshold age." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Hoffeld, Wolfgang (2013): Mindestlöhne und X-Effizienz. (International vergleichende Schriften zur Personalökonomie und Arbeitspolitik 22), München: Hampp, 165 S.

Abstract

"Über das Für und Wider gesetzlicher Mindestlöhne wird seit jeher sowohl auf politischer als auch auf wissenschaftlicher Ebene intensiv diskutiert. Für die Kritiker eines gesetzlichen Mindestlohnes stellt der potenzielle Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit das Hauptargument gegen gesetzlich vorgeschriebene Lohnuntergrenzen dar. Allerdings deutet die empirische Evidenz der vergangenen Jahre immer seltener auf den intuitiv zu erwartenden negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Mindestlöhnen und Beschäftigung hin. Insbesondere konnten bislang keine substanziellen negativen Effekte der Mindestlohneinführung in Großbritannien im Jahr 1999 identifiziert werden. Im Vordergrund der Untersuchung steht die Hypothese, dass die Mindestlohneinführung in Großbritannien zu einer Erhöhung der Effizienz in der Produktion der stärker betroffenen Unternehmen geführt hat. Diese Hypothese stützt sich auf das sogenannte 'Schock-Argument' des Mindestlohnes, wonach eine Mindestlohneinführung oder eine Mindestlohnerhöhung als exogener Schock für die betroffenen Unternehmen interpretiert wird. Anhand von Unternehmensdaten aus der Datenbank FAME sowie eines speziellen Datensatzes zur Branche der britischen Pflegeheime wird die Frage nach einer effizienzsteigernden Wirkung der Mindestlohneinführung in Großbritannien mithilfe der Data-Envelopment-Analyse untersucht, die erstmals in diesem Kontext angewendet wird. Die Ergebnisse lassen auf einen positiven Einfluss des Mindestlohnes auf die Effizienz der betroffenen Unternehmen schließen. Die Arbeit leistet somit einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Erklärung des Phänomens beschäftigungsneutraler bindender Mindestlöhne." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

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Jones, M. K., R. J. Jones, P. L. Latreille, P. D. Murphy & P. J. Sloane (2013): A regional analysis of flows into and out of the UK National Minimum Wage. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 45, H. 21, S. 3074-3087. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2012.695069

Abstract

"This article utilizes the panel element of the UK Labour Force Survey (LFS) to identify for individual regions total inflows and outflows and hazards for those individuals paid at or below the National Minimum Wage (NMW). In particular, it examines the extent and direction of the correlation between low-pay inflows and outflows and the economic cycle. Further, it examines the impact of regional variations in the bite of the NMW on regional flows into and out of the NMW." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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Manning, Alan (2013): Minimum wages: A view from the UK. In: Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Jg. 14, H. 1/2, S. 57-66. DOI:10.1111/pers.12004

Abstract

"In the past economists were generally hostile to the idea of a minimum wage regarding those who supported the policy as being economically illiterate. But the balance of professional opinion has also shifted. In this article I will describe the evidence that has led to this position, largely seen through the experience of the UK with the introduction of its National Minimum Wage (NMW) in 1999. The article will set out a brief history of minimum wages in the UK, then summarize the evidence on the impact of the NMW on employment and wage inequality and then briefly describe the lessons that might be learned for Germany." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))