Mindestlohn
Seit Inkrafttreten des Mindestlohngesetzes am 1. Januar 2015 gilt ein allgemeingültiger flächendeckender Mindestlohn in Deutschland. Lohnuntergrenzen gibt es in beinahe allen europäischen Staaten und den USA. Die Mindestlohn-Gesetze haben das Ziel, Lohn-Dumping, also die nicht verhältnismäßige Bezahlung von Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern, zu verhindern.
Diese Infoplattform dokumentiert die Diskussion rund um die Einführung des flächendeckenden Mindestlohns in Deutschland und die Ergebnisse empirischer Forschung der letzten Jahre zu flächendeckenden und branchenspezifischen Mindestlöhnen.
- IAB
- Grundsätzliches zum flächendeckenden Mindestlohn
- Auswirkungen des flächendeckenden Mindestlohns auf
- Auswirkungen des flächendeckenden Mindestlohns auf Personengruppen
- Ausnahmen vom flächendeckenden Mindestlohn für
- Ausweichreaktionen auf Mindestlöhne in Deutschland
- Bundesländer
- Branchenspezifische Mindestlöhne und deren Auswirkungen auf
- Mindestlohn in anderen Ländern
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Literaturhinweis
Federal minimum wage expansion to homecare workers: Employment and income effects (2024)
Dao, Ngoc;Zitatform
Dao, Ngoc (2024): Federal minimum wage expansion to homecare workers: Employment and income effects. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 87. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102511
Abstract
"The rapid growth of the home care industry coincides with increases in the proportion of the population over 65 years of age and more likely to need assistance with basic daily activities due to illness or disability. Yet, the growth in home care use has been accompanied by concerns about the quality of the care provided. Higher wages and better legal protection might improve the quality of home health care services. This study examines the 2013 Home Care Rule promulgated by the Department of Labor, which added home care workers to the groups covered under the federal minimum wage with minimum hourly and overtime rates. The results show large effects (7–9 %) on part-time employment increase, small effects on work hour reduction (by 2–4 %), and nonnegative effect on overall employment level following the expansion. Despite the decline in hours worked, there is no negative impact on earnings among homecare workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Income assistance programs and population health – The dual impact of minimum wages and the earned income tax credit (2024)
Zitatform
Lenhart, Otto & Kalyan Chakraborty (2024): Income assistance programs and population health – The dual impact of minimum wages and the earned income tax credit. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 234. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111508
Abstract
"In this study, we provide new evidence on the interaction of state-level minimum wages and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) laws on several measures of population health. Using data from the National Vital Statistics Reports between 1999 and 2018, we estimate difference-in-differences models to evaluate the dual impact of minimum wages and the EITC on various causes of mortality, such as suicides, motor accidents and assaults. While several researchers have examined the health effects of both these policies separately, few studies have examined the potential interaction effects of these policies. Specifically, while previous work has provided evidence that both minimum wages and the EITC can reduce suicide rates, our study contributes to the literature by showing that the policies have a positive dual impact on population health. We find that a $1 increase in minimum wages reduces death rates due to suicides and assaults by 3.8 percent and 15.2 percent in states with EITC laws, respectively. In contrast, we show that minimum wages do not impact these outcomes in states without state-level EITC laws." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The effects of minimum wages on (almost) everything? A review of recent evidence on health and related behaviors (2024)
Zitatform
Neumark, David (2024): The effects of minimum wages on (almost) everything? A review of recent evidence on health and related behaviors. In: Labour, Jg. 38, H. 1, S. 1-65. DOI:10.1111/labr.12263
Abstract
"I review and assess the evidence on minimum wage effects on health outcomes and health‐related behaviors. The evidence on physical health points in conflicting directions, leaning toward adverse effects. Research on effects on diet and obesity sometimes points to beneficial effects, whereas other evidence indicates that higher minimum wages increase smoking and drinking and reduce exercise (and possibly hygiene). In contrast, there is evidence that higher minimum wages reduce suicides, partly consistent with the evidence of positive or mixed effects on other measures of mental health/depression. Overall, policy conclusions that minimum wages improve health are unwarranted or at least premature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wages and Racial Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from a Field Experiment (2023)
Brandon, Alec; Holz, Justin E.; Simon, Andrew; Uchida, Haruka;Zitatform
Brandon, Alec, Justin E. Holz, Andrew Simon & Haruka Uchida (2023): Minimum Wages and Racial Discrimination in Hiring: Evidence from a Field Experiment. (Upjohn Institute working paper 389), Kalamazoo, Mich., 90 S. DOI:10.17848/wp23-389
Abstract
"When minimum wages increase, employers may respond to the regulatory burdens by substituting away from disadvantaged workers. We test this hypothesis using a correspondence study with 35,000 applications around ex-ante uncertain minimum wage increases in three U.S. states. Before the increases, applicants with distinctively Black names were 19 percent less likely to receive a callback than equivalent applicants with distinctively white names. Announcements of minimum wage hikes substantially reduce callbacks for all applicants but shrink the racial callback gap by 80 percent. Racial inequality decreases because firms disproportionately reduce callbacks to lower-quality white applicants who benefited from discrimination under lower minimum wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wages and Poverty: New Evidence from Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Estimates (2023)
Zitatform
Burkhauser, Richard V., Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia (2023): Minimum Wages and Poverty: New Evidence from Dynamic Difference-in-Differences Estimates. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31182), Cambridge, Mass, 97 S.
Abstract
"Advocates of minimum wage increases have long touted their potential to reduce poverty. This study assesses this claim. Using data spanning nearly four decades from the March Current Population Survey, and a dynamic difference-in-differences approach, we find that a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage is associated with a (statistically insignificant) 0.17 percent increase in the probability of longer-run poverty among all persons. With 95% confidence, we can rule out long-run poverty elasticities with respect to the minimum wage of less than -0.129, which includes central poverty elasticities reported by Dube (2019). Prior evidence suggesting large poverty-reducing effects of the minimum wage are (i) highly sensitive to researcher’s choice of macroeconomic controls, and (ii) driven by specifications that limit counterfactuals to geographically proximate states (“close controls”), which poorly match treatment states’ pre-treatment poverty trends. Moreover, an examination of the post-Great Recession era — which saw frequent, large increases in state minimum wages — failed to uncover poverty-reducing effects of the minimum wage across a wide set of specifications. Finally, we find that less than 10 percent of workers who would be affected by a newly proposed $15 federal minimum wage live in poor families." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does Wage Theft Vary by Demographic Group? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases (2023)
Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.;Zitatform
Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2023): Does Wage Theft Vary by Demographic Group? Evidence from Minimum Wage Increases. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16550), Bonn, 30 S.
Abstract
"Using Current Population Survey data, we assess whether and to what extent the burden of "wage theft" - wage payments below the statutory minimum wage - falls disproportionately on various demographic groups following minimum wage increases. For most racial and ethnic groups at most ages we find that underpayment rises similarly as a fraction of realized wage gains in the wake of minimum wage increases. We also present evidence that the burden of underpayment falls disproportionately on relatively young African American workers and that underpayment increases more for Hispanic workers among the full working-age population." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Effect of Minimum Wage Policies on the Wage and Occupational Structure of Establishments (2023)
Forsythe, Eliza;Zitatform
Forsythe, Eliza (2023): The Effect of Minimum Wage Policies on the Wage and Occupational Structure of Establishments. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 41, H. S1, S. S291-S324. DOI:10.1086/726820
Abstract
"Using establishment-level panel data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program, I estimate the effect of minimum wage increases implemented by 10 states in 2014 and 2015. I show that minimum wage increases lead to wage spillovers within establishments. I find little evidence that minimum wage increases induce establishments to reorganize their occupational mix. Finally, I find that minimum wage increases propagate up the management hierarchy, leading to increased wages for supervisors. Nonetheless, I find overall wage inequality decreases within establishments after minimum wage increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
To Redistribute or to Predistribute? The Minimum Wage versus Income Taxation When Workers Differ in Both Wages and Working Hours (2023)
Gerritsen, Aart;Zitatform
Gerritsen, Aart (2023): To Redistribute or to Predistribute? The Minimum Wage versus Income Taxation When Workers Differ in Both Wages and Working Hours. (CESifo working paper 10734), München, 53 S.
Abstract
"I consider the case for the minimum wage alongside (optimal) income taxes when workers differ in both wages and working hours, such that a given level of income corresponds to multiple wage rates. The minimum wage is directly targeted at the lowest-wage workers, while income taxes are at most targeted at all low-income workers, regardless of their hourly wage rates. This renders the minimum wage unambiguously desirable in a discrete-type model of the labor market. Desirability of the minimum wage is a priori ambiguous in a continuous-type model of the labor market. Compared to the minimum wage, income taxes are less effective in compressing the wage distribution but more effective in redistributing income. Desirability of the minimum wage depends on this trade-off between the “predistributional advantage” of the minimum wage and the “redistributional advantage” of the income tax. I derive a desirability condition for the minimum wage and write it in terms of empirical sufficient statistics. A numerical application to the US suggests a strong case for a higher federal minimum wage – especially if social preferences for the lowest-wage workers are relatively strong and the wage elasticity of labor demand relatively small." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Minimum Wage, Self-Employment, and the Online Gig Economy (2023)
Glasner, Benjamin;Zitatform
Glasner, Benjamin (2023): The Minimum Wage, Self-Employment, and the Online Gig Economy. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 41, H. 1, S. 103-127. DOI:10.1086/719690
Abstract
"This paper estimates the effect of minimum wage increases on work that is not covered by minimum wage laws. I find minimum wage increases in the early 2000s resulted in small reductions in engagement in traditional self-employment. Following the development of the online gig economy in the 2010s, a 10% increase in the minimum wage increased the number of non-employer establishments classified as transportation and warehousing services by approximately 2.7%. The counties most likely to exhibit a positive relationship between the minimum wage and participation in uncovered work are those with low labor market concentration and active Uber marketplaces." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
One Hundred Years of Dynamic Minimum Wage Regulation: Lessons from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (2023)
Hamilton, Reg; Nichol, Matt;Zitatform
Hamilton, Reg & Matt Nichol (2023): One Hundred Years of Dynamic Minimum Wage Regulation: Lessons from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. In: International Labour Review, Jg. 162, H. 3, S. 407-429. DOI:10.1111/ilr.12380
Abstract
"Since the first minimum wage legislation was introduced in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States in the early 1900s, minimum wage regulation has attracted controversy. Opponents of minimum wage levels rely on market theory, while supporters acknowledge the role of markets in setting the price of labour but justify state intervention based on principles of equity and social good. This article examines how these two ideological positions influenced fixing what is both a crucial cost for business and underpinning of worker and family living standards, and whether effective wage fixing has resulted. Little comparative research exists on the origins, evolution and current systems of minimum wage regulation in the three countries and this article aims to address this gap in the literature." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The effects of minimum wages over the business cycle: the Great Recession (2023)
Zitatform
Hean, Oudom & Nanxin Deng (2023): The effects of minimum wages over the business cycle: the Great Recession. In: International Journal of Manpower, Jg. 44, H. 1, S. 19-36. DOI:10.1108/IJM-07-2021-0402
Abstract
"Purpose: This paper examines disemployment effects of minimum wages during the period 2002–2010. Design/methodology/approach: The authors employ the discontinuity design. Findings: The authors find that minimum wages had a significant negative impact on teen employment before the Great Recession. During the Great Recession, the disemployment effects of minimum wages were insignificant. The finding is consistent with the evolution of firms' market power during the business cycle. Originality/value: The authors attempt to reconcile the debate about the effects of minimum wages on US employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Emerald Group) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Asymmetric Effect of Wage Floors: A Natural Experiment with a Rising and Falling Minimum Wage (2023)
Huet-Vaughn, Emiliano; Piqueras, Jon;Zitatform
Huet-Vaughn, Emiliano & Jon Piqueras (2023): The Asymmetric Effect of Wage Floors: A Natural Experiment with a Rising and Falling Minimum Wage. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16684), Bonn, 14 S.
Abstract
"Exploiting a unique natural experiment,we Show the asymmetric effects of a large increase and an equivalent subsequent decrease to a binding minimum wage. Wages in a leading low-wage industry increase as the Minimum wage rises, but do not fall when it is lowered. This boost for low-wage workers' earnings is apparently permanent five years after the policy is revoked, providing novel evidence of hysteresis in wage setting from temporary labor policy. In the first year post repeal this is consistent with downward nominal wage rigidity. But, the elevated earnings persist even in high inflation times, contrary to the prediction from existing work that real wage reductions under high inflation should erode the nominal wage gap relative to unaffected firms. Our findings thus challenge the conventional view that inflation "greases the wheels" of the labor market in the face of downward nominal wage rigidity, and, demonstrate the value of even transitory labor market policy in achieving permanent gains for workers (play it while you got it)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Nonprofit Sector (2023)
Meer, Jonathan; Tajali, Hedieh;Zitatform
Meer, Jonathan & Hedieh Tajali (2023): Effects of the Minimum Wage on the Nonprofit Sector. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31281), Cambridge, Mass, 37 S.
Abstract
"The nonprofit sector's ability to absorb increases in labor costs differs from the private sector in a number of ways. We analyze how nonprofits are affected by changes in the minimum wage utilizing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Internal Revenue Service, linked to state minimum wages. We examine changes in reported employment and volunteering, as well as other financial statements such as revenues and expenses. The results from both datasets show a negative impact on employment for states with large statutory minimum wage increases. We observe some evidence for a reduction in the number of nonprofit establishments, fundraising expenses, and revenues from contributions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors (2023)
Zitatform
Neumark, David (2023): The Effects of Minimum Wages on (Almost) Everything? A Review of Recent Evidence on Health and Related Behaviors. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31191), Cambridge, Mass, 57 S.
Abstract
"The effects of minimum wages on employment, wages, earnings, and incomes, have been studied and debated for decades. In recent years, however, researchers have turned to the effects on a multitude of other behaviors and outcomes – largely related to health. I review and assess the large and growing body of evidence on minimum wage effects on a wide variety of health outcomes and health-related behaviors. The evidence on overall physical health is mixed. The findings on diet and obesity either point to beneficial or null effects, but not negative effects, while other evidence indicates that higher minimum wages increase smoking and reduce exercise. The evidence for mental health is ambiguous, with somewhat more studies finding no impact than finding a positive impact (but none finding a negative impact). And the evidence for suicide points clearly to beneficial effects of higher minimum wages. Studies on family structure and children point in different directions, with evidence that mothers spend more time with children, no clear indication of changes in treatment of children, but declines in children's test scores. The evidence generally points to minimum wages increasing risky behavior (drinking and smoking). Evidence on the effects of minimum wages on crime is mixed. The best evidence on employer-provided health insurance is more adverse, although Medicaid expansions under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may have mitigated this influence, and there is not clear evidence of greater unmet medical needs. Other evidence suggests that higher minimum wages may affect health adversely via different channels." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Heterogeneous Impact of the Minimum Wage: Implications for Changes in Between- and Within-group Inequality (2023)
Zitatform
Oka, Tatsushi & Ken Yamada (2023): Heterogeneous Impact of the Minimum Wage: Implications for Changes in Between- and Within-group Inequality. In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 58, H. 1, S. 335-362. DOI:10.3368/jhr.58.3.0719-10339R1
Abstract
"Most of the workers who earn at or below the minimum wage are either less educated, young, or female in the United States. We examine the extent to which the minimum wage influences the wage differential among workers with different observed characteristics and the wage differential among workers with the same observed characteristics. Our results suggest that changes in the real value of the minimum wage account in part for the patterns of changes in education, experience, and gender wage differentials and for most of the changes in within-group wage differentials for workers with lower levels of experience." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wage Effects Within Census Based Statistical Areas: A Matched Pair Cross-Border Analysis (2023)
Zitatform
Taylor, Garrett C. & James E. West (2023): Minimum Wage Effects Within Census Based Statistical Areas: A Matched Pair Cross-Border Analysis. (NBER working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research 31196), Cambridge, Mass, 14 S.
Abstract
"Using monthly data from major U.S. metropolitan areas that span state borders, we estimate the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage using a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment in two-digit industries of 71 (Arts, Entertainment and Recreation) and 72 (Accommodation and Food Services). In specifications that control for differences in state sales, personal and corporate income tax rates, we find negative average causal response on the treated (ACRT) in six-digit industries where we expect large numbers of young, entry-level employees, but positive correlations in other industries. Our results illustrate important heterogeneities in minimum wage effects in urban versus rural areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum wage effects within Census Based Statistical Areas: A matched pair cross-border analysis (2023)
Zitatform
Taylor, Garrett C. & James E. West (2023): Minimum wage effects within Census Based Statistical Areas: A matched pair cross-border analysis. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 229. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111220
Abstract
"Using monthly data from major U.S. metropolitan areas that span state borders, we estimate the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage using a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment in two-digit industries of 71 (Arts, Entertainment and Recreation) and 72 (Accommodation and Food Services). In specifications that control for differences in state sales, personal and corporate income tax rates, we find a negative average causal response on the treated (ACRT) in six-digit industries where we expect large numbers of young, entry-level employees but positive correlations in other industries. Our results illustrate important heterogeneities in minimum wage effects in urban versus rural areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Racial inequality in frictional labor markets: Evidence from minimum wages (2023)
Zitatform
Wursten, Jesse & Michael Reich (2023): Racial inequality in frictional labor markets: Evidence from minimum wages. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 82. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102344
Abstract
"We provide the first causal analysis of how state and federal minimum wage policies in the U.S. have affected labor market frictions and racial wage gaps. Using stacked event studies, binned difference-in-differences estimators, within-person analyses and classic panel methods, we find that minimum wages increased wages of black workers between 16 and 64% more than among white workers and reduced the overall black-white wage gap by 10% (and by 56% among workers most affected by the policies). Racial differences in initial wages cannot explain this differential effect. Rather, minimum wages expand job opportunities for black workers more than for white workers. We present a model with labor market frictions in which minimum wages expand the job search radius of workers who do not own automobiles and who live farther from jobs. Our causal results using the ACS show that minimum wages increase commuting via automobile among black workers but not among white workers, supporting our model. Minimum wages also reduce racial gaps in separations and hires, further suggesting the policies especially enhance job opportunities for black workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2023 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The minimum wage and search effort (2022)
Adams, Camilla; Sloan, CarlyWill; Meer, Jonathan;Zitatform
Adams, Camilla, Jonathan Meer & CarlyWill Sloan (2022): The minimum wage and search effort. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 212. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110288
Abstract
"Labor market search-and-matching models posit supply-side responses to minimum wage increases that may lead to improved matches and lessen or even reverse negative employment effects. Using event study analysis of recent minimum wage increases, we find that these changes do not affect the likelihood of searching, but do lead to transitory spikes in search effort by individuals already looking for work. These results are not driven by changes in the composition of searchers, and are concentrated among the groups most likely to be impacted by the minimum wage and in response to larger minimum wage increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum wage increases and eviction risk (2022)
Zitatform
Agarwal, Sumit, Brent W. Ambrose & Moussa Diop (2022): Minimum wage increases and eviction risk. In: Journal of Urban Economics, Jg. 129. DOI:10.1016/j.jue.2021.103421
Abstract
"We extend the debate on the benefits to increasing the minimum wage by examining the impact on expenses associated with shelter, a previously unexplored area. Our analysis uses a unique data set that tracks household rental payments. Increases in state minimum wages significantly reduce the incidence of renters defaulting on their lease contracts by 1.7 percentage points over three months, relative to similar renters who did not experience an increase in the minimum wage. This represents 10.6% fewer monthly defaults. However, this effect slowly decreases over time as landlords react to wage increases by increasing rents." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare (2022)
Berger, David W.; Mongey, Simon; Herkenhoff, Kyle F.;Zitatform
Berger, David W., Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Simon Mongey (2022): Minimum Wages, Efficiency and Welfare. (NBER working paper 29662), Cambridge, Mass, 84 S. DOI:10.3386/w29662
Abstract
"It has long been argued that a minimum wage could alleviate efficiency losses from monopsony power. In a general equilibrium framework that quantitatively replicates results from recent empirical studies, we find higher minimum wages can improve welfare, but most welfare gains stem from redistribution rather than efficiency. Our model features oligopsonistic labor markets with heterogeneous workers and firms and yields analytical expressions that characterize the mechanisms by which minimum wages can improve efficiency, and how these deteriorate at higher minimum wages. We provide a method to separate welfare gains into two channels: efficiency and redistribution. Under both channels and Utilitarian social welfare weights the optimal minimum wage is $15, but alternative weights can rationalize anything from $0 to $31. Under only the efficiency channel, the optimal minimum wage is narrowly around $8, robust to social welfare weights, and generates small welfare gains that recover only 2 percent of the efficiency losses from monopsony power." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Push or Pull? Measuring the labor supply response to the minimum wage using an individual-level panel (2022)
Zitatform
Boffy-Ramirez, Ernest (2022): Push or Pull? Measuring the labor supply response to the minimum wage using an individual-level panel. In: Applied Economics, Jg. 54, H. 35, S. 4043-4059. DOI:10.1080/00036846.2021.2020713
Abstract
"For individuals in low-wage labour markets, an increase in the minimum wage can theoretically pull them into or push them out of the labour force. If increases raise expected wages beyond reservation wages, marginal individuals could enter the labour force and begin searching for employment. If increases lower expected wages, marginal individuals already in the labour force could exit. Leveraging revised individual identifiers in the U.S. Current Population Survey, this research estimates the contemporaneous effects of minimum wage increases on labour force participation. The use of within-person variation, short individual panels, and flexible controls for time create an empirical strategy that mitigates potential biases from unobserved constant individual-level heterogeneity and time-varying factors. This research finds that minimum wage changes tend to impact the youngest individuals, but there is substantial heterogeneity in responses by age, race/ethnicity, and sex. There is stronger evidence of pull effects amongst young white men and Latinos, and weaker evidence amongst young Black women and older Latinas. Weak evidence of push effects is observed amongst younger white women, younger Latinos, and older Latinas. This research highlights heterogeneous labour force participation responses to further inform our understanding of search behaviour and labour market churn." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes (2022)
Cengiz, Doruk; Dube, Arindrajit; Lindner, Attila S.; Zentler-Munro, David;Zitatform
Cengiz, Doruk, Arindrajit Dube, Attila S. Lindner & David Zentler-Munro (2022): Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 40, H. S1, S. S203-S247. DOI:10.1086/718497
Abstract
"We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes. First, we apply modern machine learning tools to predict who is affected by the policy. Second, we implement an event study using 172 prominent minimum wage increases between 1979 and 2019. We find a clear increase in wages of affected workers and no change in employment. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have no effect on the unemployment rate, labor force participation, or labor market transitions. Overall, these findings provide little evidence of changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How Important are Minimum Wage Increases in Increasing the Wages of Minimum Wage Workers? (2022)
Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.;Zitatform
Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2022): How Important are Minimum Wage Increases in Increasing the Wages of Minimum Wage Workers? (NBER working paper 29824), Cambridge, Mass, 39 S. DOI:10.3386/w29824
Abstract
"Popular discussion commonly presumes an outsized role for minimum wage increases as a driver of wage increases for minimum wage workers. In this paper, we investigate the accuracy of this presumption using data from the earnings studies of the Current Population Survey (CPS). CPS wage and earnings data enable us to assess the fraction of minimum wage workers who receive a raise within 12 months of their initial appearance as a minimum wage worker. On average from 2010 to 2019, we find that roughly 75 percent of minimum wage workers who remain employed experience a wage increase within 12 months. This fraction is higher during the later years of the sample, when the labor market has been strong, than in the earlier years. The fraction of minimum wage workers receiving wage increases is moderately higher when states enact minimum wage increases than when they do not. We also find that the fraction of minimum wage workers receiving wage increases is correlated with several measures of labor market tightness. Finally, wage gains are quite commonly associated with industry and/or occupation switches. This highlights the importance of career progression for the growth of earnings among entry-level workers. The vast majority of the wage gains realized by minimum wage workers thus appear to be driven by career progression and increases in labor demand. Minimum wage increases play a modest role as a driver of earnings trajectories beyond shaping the initial, typically short-lived, minimum wage job itself." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Understanding "wage theft": Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases (2022)
Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.;Zitatform
Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2022): Understanding "wage theft": Evasion and avoidance responses to minimum wage increases. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 79. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2022.102285
Abstract
"This paper presents strong evidence that minimum wage increases lead to a greater prevalence of subminimum wage payment. Using the Current Population Survey, we estimate that increases in measured underpayment following minimum wage increases average between 12 and 17 percent of realized wage gains. Our baseline analyses focus on workers ages 16 to 25, while additional analyses consider workers ages 16 to 65. In addition, we find that firms and workers comply to a far greater degree with minimum wage increases that are forecastable, modest, and regular than with minimum wage increases enacted through new legislation. We also find evidence that states' enforcement regimes influence the compliance patterns we observe. We interpret these findings as evidence that while minimum wage compliance is the norm, noncompliance is an important, economically nuanced reality in the low-wage labor market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does measurement error explain the increase in subminimum wage payment following minimum wage increases? (2022)
Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.;Zitatform
Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2022): Does measurement error explain the increase in subminimum wage payment following minimum wage increases? In: Economics Letters, Jg. 217. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110638
Abstract
"In analyses of minimum wages, positive “ripple effects” and subminimum wages are difficult to distinguish from measurement error. Indeed, prior work posits that a simple, symmetric measurement error process may underlie both phenomena in Current Population Survey data for the full working age population. We show that the population-wide symmetry between spillovers and subminimum wage payment is illusory in that spillovers accrue to older individuals while subminimum wage payment accrues to the young. Symmetric measurement error cannot explain this heterogeneity, which increases the likelihood that both spillovers and subminimum-wage payment are real effects of minimum wage increases rather than artifacts of measurement error." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2022 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Minimum Wage and Union Membership among Minimum Wage Workers: Why Do Unions Advocate for Minimum Wage Increases? (2022)
Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.;Zitatform
Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2022): The Minimum Wage and Union Membership among Minimum Wage Workers: Why Do Unions Advocate for Minimum Wage Increases? (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 15685), Bonn, 10 S.
Abstract
"Over the past decade, organized labor has played a significant role in advocating for minimum wage increases. In this paper, we investigate the effects of minimum wage increases on union membership among individuals in minimum wage intensive industries. Consistent with a "freeriding" hypothesis, we find that minimum wage increases predict declines in union membership among low-skilled's most direct beneficiaries. We find no evidence of a change in union membership among high-skilled workers in these industries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run (2022)
Hurst, Erik; Pastorino, Elena; Kehoe, Patrick J.; Winberry, Thomas;Zitatform
Hurst, Erik, Patrick J. Kehoe, Elena Pastorino & Thomas Winberry (2022): The Distributional Impact of the Minimum Wage in the Short and Long Run. (NBER working paper 30294), Cambridge, Mass, 66 S. DOI:10.3386/w30294
Abstract
"We develop a framework with rich worker heterogeneity, firm monopsony power, and putty-clay technology to study the distributional impact of the minimum wage in the short and long run. Our production technology is disciplined to be consistent with the small estimated employment effects of the minimum wage in the short run and the large estimated elasticities of substitution across inputs in the long run. We find that in the short run, a large increase in the minimum wage has a small effect on employment and therefore increases the labor income of the workers who were earning less than the new minimum wage. In the long run, however, the minimum wage has perverse distributional implications in that it reduces the employment, income, and welfare of precisely the low-income workers it is meant to help. Nonetheless, these long-run effects take time to fully materialize because firms slowly adjust their mix of inputs. Existing transfer programs, such as the earned income tax credit (EITC), are more effective at improving long-run outcomes for workers at the low end of the wage distribution. But combining existing programs with a modest increase in the minimum wage generates even larger welfare gains for low-earning workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
auch erschienen als: Staff Report, 640 -
Literaturhinweis
What's across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects (2022)
Zitatform
Jha, Priyaranjan, David Neumark & Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez (2022): What's across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects. (IZA discussion paper 15282), Bonn, 31 S.
Abstract
"Dube, Lester, and Reich (2010) argue that state-level minimum wage variation can be correlated with economic shocks, generating spurious evidence that higher minimum wages reduce employment. Using minimum wage variation within contiguous county pairs that share a state border, they find no relationship between minimum wages and employment in the U.S. restaurant industry. We show that this finding hinges critically on using cross-border counties to define local economic areas with which to control for economic shocks that are potentially correlated with minimum wage changes. We use, instead, multi-state commuting zones, which provide superior definitions of local economic areas. Using the same within-local area research design—but within cross-border commuting zones—we find a robust negative relationship between minimum wages and employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Why are Low-Wage Workers Signing Noncompete Agreements? (2022)
Zitatform
Johnson, Matthew S. & Michael Lipsitz (2022): Why are Low-Wage Workers Signing Noncompete Agreements? In: The Journal of Human Resources, Jg. 57, H. 3, S. 689-724. DOI:10.3368/jhr.57.3.0619-10274R2
Abstract
"Policymakers are concerned by evidence that noncompete agreements (NCAs) are widely used in low-wage jobs. We show that firms that would otherwise not use NCAs are induced to use one in the presence of frictions to adjusting wages downward. Using a new survey of salon owners, we find that declines in the terms of trade for employees and increases in the minimum wage lead to higher NCA use, but only at firms for which the employee's cost of an NCA likely exceeds the employer's benefit. Furthermore, minimum wage increases have a negative effect on employment only where NCAs are unenforceable." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Does Minimum Wage Increase Labor Productivity? Evidence from Piece Rate Workers (2022)
Ku, Hyejin;Zitatform
Ku, Hyejin (2022): Does Minimum Wage Increase Labor Productivity? Evidence from Piece Rate Workers. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 40, H. 2, S. 325-359. DOI:10.1086/716347
Abstract
"We examine worker effort as a potential margin of adjustment to a minimum wage hike using unique data on piece rate workers who perform a homogenous task and whose individual output is rigorously recorded. By employing a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the increase in Florida’s minimum wage from USD 6.79 to USD 7.21 on January 1, 2009, and worker location on the pre-2009 productivity distribution, we provide evidence consistent with incumbent workers’ positive effort responses." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies (2022)
Kudlyak, Marianna; Tasci, Murat; Tüzemen, Didem;Zitatform
Kudlyak, Marianna, Murat Tasci & Didem Tüzemen (2022): Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies. (IZA discussion paper 15254), Bonn, 37 S.
Abstract
"Using a unique data set and a novel identification strategy, we estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on job vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county- level vacancy data from the Conference Board's Help Wanted Online for 2005-2018, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers who earn close to the prevailing minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state-level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, and the cumulative effect is as large as 4.5 percent a year later. The negative effect on vacancies is more pronounced for occupations where workers typically have lower educational attainment (high school or less) and in counties with higher poverty rates. We argue that our focus on vacancies versus on employment has a distinct advantage of highlighting a mechanism through which minimum wage hikes affect labor demand. Our finding of a negative effect on vacancies is not inconsistent with the wide range of findings in the literature about the effect of minimum wage changes on employment, which is driven by changes in both hiring and separation margins." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Minimum Wage And Occupational Mobility (2022)
Zitatform
Liu, Andrew Yizhou (2022): The Minimum Wage And Occupational Mobility. In: International Economic Review, Jg. 63, H. 2, S. 917-945. DOI:10.1111/iere.12552
Abstract
"This article quantifies the effect of minimum wages on workers' occupational mobility. I show that minimum wages decrease younger, less-educated workers' occupational mobility and are associated with more mismatch. A search-and-matching model highlights two channels by which the minimum wage decreases occupational mobility. First, it compresses wages and reduces the gain from switching, leading to lower occupational mobility and more mismatch. Second, it decreases vacancy posting. Calibrating the model to the U.S. economy, the results suggest that a 15 dollar minimum wage can damp aggregate output by 0.4%, of which the wage compression channel accounts for 80%." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Der flüchtige Beschäftigungseffekt des Mindestlohns (2022)
Zitatform
Manning, Alan (2022): Der flüchtige Beschäftigungseffekt des Mindestlohns. In: A. Heise & T. Pusch (Hrsg.) (2022): Mindestlöhne – Szenen einer Wissenschaft, S. 137-174.
Abstract
"Mit der Vielzahl von Papieren, die versuchen, den Effekt von Mindestlöhnen auf die Beschäftigung zu schätzen, steigt die Gefahr, den Blick auf die Frage nach dem 'Warum' zu verlieren. Insbesondere auf die Frage, warum es so schwer ist, negative Beschäftigungseffekte von Mindestlöhnen auszumachen. Vielleicht gibt es gewisse ökonomische Faktoren, die den kleinen und oftmals ambivalenten Effekt des Mindestlohns auf die Beschäftigung erklären? Oder vielleicht sind Arbeitsmärkte fundamental von anderen Märkten verschieden? Diese Anliegen sollen in diesem Beitrag diskutiert werden. Die Schlussfolgerung ist, dass der Beschäftigungseffekt des Mindestlohns schwer fassbar ist, aber auch, dass die Ökonomen hiervon nicht überrascht sein sollten, wenn man bedenkt, wie Arbeitsmärkte funktionieren, in denen Abweichungen vom vollständigen Wettbewerb viel größer sind als in vielen anderen Märkten. Tatsächlich mag es an der Zeit sein, dass die Forschung einen Schritt vorwärts macht und sich die Frage stellt, wie weit der Mindestlohn erhöht werden kann, ohne signifikante Beschäftigungseffekte auszulösen." (Textauszug, IAB-Doku)
Weiterführende Informationen
Original-Artikel in: Journal of Economic Perspectives -
Literaturhinweis
The Impact of Recent State and Local Minimum Wage Increases on Nursing Facility Employment (2022)
Zitatform
McHenry, Peter & Jennifer M. Mellor (2022): The Impact of Recent State and Local Minimum Wage Increases on Nursing Facility Employment. In: Journal of labor research, Jg. 43, H. 3/4, S. 345-368. DOI:10.1007/s12122-022-09338-x
Abstract
"Various U.S. states and municipalities raised their mandated minimum wages between 2017 and 2019. In some areas, minimum wages became high enough to bind for more professional workers, such as lower paid staff at nursing facilities. We add to the small prior literature on the effects of minimum wages on nursing facility staffing using novel establishment-level data on daily hours worked; these data allow us to examine changes in staffing hours along margins previously unexplored in the minimum wage literature. We find no evidence that minimum wage increases reduced hours worked among lower-paid nurses in nursing facilities. In contrast, we find that increases in state and local minimum wages increased hours worked per resident day by nursing assistants; increases occurred for the average of all days throughout the month and on weekend days. We also find that a higher minimum wage increased the share of days in the month that facilities meet at least 75% of the minimum recommended levels of staffing for nursing assistants. These results lessen concerns that minimum wage hikes may reduce the quality of resident care at nursing facilities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Policies in California and Nationwide: Results from a Pre-specified Analysis Plan (2022)
Zitatform
Neumark, David & Maysen Yen (2022): Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Policies in California and Nationwide. Results from a Pre-specified Analysis Plan. In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 61, H. 2, S. 228-255. DOI:10.1111/irel.12297
Abstract
"We analyze the impacts of recent city minimum wage increases in California and nationwide, following a pre-analysis plan (PAP) registered prior to the release of data covering two years of minimum wage increases. For California cities, we find a hint of negative employment effects. Nationally, we find some evidence of disemployment effects for teens, but not young adults or high school dropouts. City-specific analyses provide limited evidence of adverse effects on the share low-income, but the pooled city analysis does not; the national analysis generally finds no impact on the share low-income, except for reductions in the share near-poor, although that may at least partly reflect prior trends. All told, we view the results as providing neither strong evidence of substantial adverse effects of city minimum wages, nor strong evidence of substantial beneficial effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States? (2022)
Zitatform
Neumark, David & Peter Shirley (2022): Myth or measurement: What does the new minimum wage research say about minimum wages and job loss in the United States? In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 61, H. 4, S. 384-417. DOI:10.1111/irel.12306
Abstract
"The disagreement among studies on the employment effects of minimum wages in the United States is well known. Less well known, and more puzzling, is the absence of agreement on what the research literature says—that is, how economists summarize the body of evidence on the employment effects of minimum wages. Summaries range from “it is now well established that higher minimum wages do not reduce employment,” to “the evidence is very mixed with effects centered on zero so there is no basis for a strong conclusion one way or the other,” to “most evidence points to adverse employment effects.” We explore the question of what conclusions can be drawn from the literature, focusing on the evidence using subnational minimum wage variation within the United States that has dominated the research landscape since the early 1990s. To accomplish this, we assembled the entire set of published studies in this literature and identified the core estimates that support the conclusions from each study, in most cases relying on responses from the researchers who wrote these papers. Our key conclusions are as follows: (i) there is a clear preponderance of negative estimates in the literature; (ii) this evidence is stronger for teens and young adults and the less educated; (iii) the evidence from studies of directly affected workers points even more strongly to negative employment effects; and (iv) the evidence from studies of low-wage industries is less one-sided." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into U.S. Retail Prices: Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data (2022)
Zitatform
Renkin, Tobias, Claire Montialoux & Michael Siegenthaler (2022): The Pass-Through of Minimum Wages into U.S. Retail Prices: Evidence from Supermarket Scanner Data. In: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Jg. 104, H. 5, S. 890-908. DOI:10.1162/rest_a_00981
Abstract
"This paper estimates the pass-through of minimum wage increases into the prices of U.S. grocery and drug stores. We use high-frequency scanner data and leverage a large number of state-level increases in minimum wages between 2001 and 2012. We find that a 10% minimum wage hike translates into a 0.36% increase in the prices of grocery products. This magnitude is consistent with a full pass-through of cost increases into consumer prices. We show that price adjustments occur mostly in the three months following the passage of minimum wage legislation rather than after implementation, suggesting that pricing of groceries is forward-looking." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © MIT Press Journals) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach (2022)
Todd, Petra E.; Zhang, Weilong;Zitatform
Todd, Petra E. & Weilong Zhang (2022): Distributional Effects of Local Minimum Wages: A Spatial Job Search Approach. (NBER working paper 30668), Cambridge, Mass, 64 S.
Abstract
"This paper develops and estimates a spatial general equilibrium job search model to study the effects of local and universal (federal) minimum wage policies on employment, wages, job postings, vacancies, migration/commuting, and welfare. In the model, workers, who differ in terms of location and education levels, search for jobs locally and in a neighboring area. If they receive remote offers, they decide whether to migrate or commute. Firms post vacancies in multiple locations and make offers subject to minimum wage constraints. The model is estimated using multiple databases, including the American Community Survey (ACS) and Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI), and exploiting minimum wage variation across state borders as well as time series variation (2005-2015). Results show that local minimum wage increases lead firms to post fewer wage offers in both local and neighboring areas and lead lower education workers to reduce interstate commuting. An out-of-sample validation finds that model forecasts of commuting responses to city minimum wage hikes are similar to patterns in the data. A welfare analysis shows how minimum wage effects vary by worker type and with the minimum wage level. Low skill workers benefit from local wage increases up to $10.75/hour and high skill workers up to $12.25/hour. The greatest per capital welfare gain (including both workers and firms) is achieved by a universal minimum wage increase of $12.75/hour." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wages and Restaurant Employment for Teens and Adults in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas (2022)
Zitatform
Winters, John V. (2022): Minimum Wages and Restaurant Employment for Teens and Adults in Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Areas. (IZA discussion paper 15499), Bonn, 38 S.
Abstract
"This study estimates effects of minimum wages on individual restaurant employment using the 2005-2019 Current Population Survey (CPS) and a two-way fixed effects regression model. I examine effects for teens and adults with less than an associate's degree for the entire U.S. and by metropolitan area status. The results indicate that minimum wages on average decrease restaurant employment for teens and increase restaurant employment for these adults, suggesting that minimum wages induce labor-labor substitution. However, this pattern is driven by metropolitan areas residents. The estimated coefficient for minimum wages on teen restaurant employment in non-metropolitan areas is not statistically significant." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wages, Minimum Wages, and Price Pass-Through: The Case of McDonald's Restaurants (2021)
Ashenfelter, Orley; Jurajda, Stepán;Zitatform
Ashenfelter, Orley & Stepán Jurajda (2021): Wages, Minimum Wages, and Price Pass-Through: The Case of McDonald's Restaurants. (CERGE-EI working paper 684), Prag, 30 S.
Abstract
"We use highly consistent national-coverage price and wage data to provide evidence on wage increases, labor-saving technology introduction, and price pass-through by a large low-wage employer facing minimum wage hikes. Based on 2016-2020 hourly wage rates of McDonald's Basic Crew and prices of the Big Mac sandwich collected simultaneously from almost all US McDonald's restaurants, we find that in about 25% of instances of minimum wage increases, restaurants display a tendency to keep constant their wage 'premium' above the increasing minimum wage. Higher minimum wages are not associated with faster adoption of touch-screen ordering, and there is near-full price pass-through of minimum wages, with little heterogeneity related to how binding minimum wage increases are for restaurants. Minimum wage hikes lead to increases in real wages (expressed in Big Macs an hour of Basic Crew work can buy) that are one fifth lower than the corresponding increases in nominal wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Economic Impact of a High National Minimum Wage: Evidence from the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act (2021)
Bailey, Martha J.; DiNardo, John; Stuart, Bryan A.;Zitatform
Bailey, Martha J., John DiNardo & Bryan A. Stuart (2021): The Economic Impact of a High National Minimum Wage: Evidence from the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 39, H. S2, S. S329-S367. DOI:10.1086/712554
Abstract
"This paper examines the short- and longer-term economic effects of the 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), which increased the national minimum wage to its highest level of the twentieth century and extended coverage to an additional 9.1 million workers. Exploiting differences in the “bite” of the minimum wage owing to regional variation in the standard of living and industry composition, this paper finds that the 1966 FLSA increased wages dramatically but reduced aggregate employment only modestly. However, some evidence shows that disemployment effects were significantly larger among African American men, 40% of whom earned below the new minimum wage." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes (2021)
Cengiz, Doruk; Dube, Arindrajit; Lindner, Attila S.; Zentler-Munro, David;Zitatform
Cengiz, Doruk, Arindrajit Dube, Attila S. Lindner & David Zentler-Munro (2021): Seeing Beyond the Trees: Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Impact of Minimum Wages on Labor Market Outcomes. (NBER working paper 28399), Cambridge, MA, 60 S. DOI:10.3386/w28399
Abstract
"We assess the effect of the minimum wage on labor market outcomes such as employment, unemployment, and labor force participation for most workers affected by the policy. We apply modern machine learning tools to construct demographically-based treatment groups capturing around 75% of all minimum wage workers—a major improvement over the literature which has focused on fairly narrow subgroups where the policy has a large bite (e.g., teens). By exploiting 172 prominent minimum wages between 1979 and 2019 we find that there is a very clear increase in average wages of workers in these groups following a minimum wage increase, while there is little evidence of employment loss. Furthermore, we find no indication that minimum wage has a negative effect on the unemployment rate, on the labor force participation, or on the labor market transitions. Furthermore, we detect no employment or participation responses even for sub-groups that are likely to have a high extensive margin labor supply elasticity—such as teens, older workers, or single mothers. Overall, these findings provide little evidence for changing search effort in response to a minimum wage increase." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-Analysis Plan (2021)
Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.;Zitatform
Clemens, Jeffrey & Michael R. Strain (2021): The Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes. Evidence over the Short and Medium Run Using a Pre-Analysis Plan. (NBER working paper 29264), Cambridge, Mass, 96 S. DOI:10.3386/w29264
Abstract
"This paper advances the use of pre-analysis plans in non-experimental research settings. In a study of recent minimum wage changes, we demonstrate how analyses of medium- and long-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to short-run analyses. Further, our pre-analysis plan includes comparisons of the effects of large vs. small minimum wage increases, which is a theoretically motivated dimension of heterogeneity. We discuss how these use cases harness the strengths of pre-analysis plans while mitigating their weaknesses. This project's initial analyses explored CPS and ACS data from 2011 through 2015. Alongside these analyses, we pre-committed to analyses incorporating CPS and ACS data extending through 2019. Averaging across the specifications in our pre-analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced employment rates among low-skilled individuals by just over 2.5 percentage points. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that medium-run effects exceed short-run effects and that the elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Minimum Wages and Racial Inequality (2021)
Derenoncourt, Ellora; Montialoux, Claire;Zitatform
Derenoncourt, Ellora & Claire Montialoux (2021): Minimum Wages and Racial Inequality. In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Jg. 136, H. 1, S. 169-228. DOI:10.1093/qje/qjaa031
Abstract
"The earnings difference between white and black workers fell dramatically in the United States in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This article shows that the expansion of the minimum wage played a critical role in this decline. The 1966 Fair Labor Standards Act extended federal minimum wage coverage to agriculture, restaurants, nursing homes, and other services that were previously uncovered and where nearly a third of black workers were employed. We digitize over 1,000 hourly wage distributions from Bureau of Labor Statistics industry wage reports and use CPS microdata to investigate the effects of this reform on wages, employment, and racial inequality. Using a cross-industry difference-in-differences design, we show that earnings rose sharply for workers in the newly covered industries. The impact was nearly twice as large for black workers as for white workers. Within treated industries, the racial gap adjusted for observables fell from 25 log points prereform to 0 afterward. We can rule out significant disemployment effects for black workers. Using a bunching design, we find no aggregate effect of the reform on employment. The 1967 extension of the minimum wage can explain more than 20% of the reduction in the racial earnings and income gap during the civil rights era. Our findings shed new light on the dynamics of labor market inequality in the United States and suggest that minimum wage policy can play a critical role in reducing racial economic disparities." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
City Limits: What do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do? (2021)
Dube, Arindrajit; Lindner, Attila S.;Zitatform
Dube, Arindrajit & Attila S. Lindner (2021): City Limits: What do Local-Area Minimum Wages Do? In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 35, H. 1, S. 27-50. DOI:10.1257/jep.35.1.27
Abstract
"Cities are increasingly setting their own minimum wages, and this trend has accelerated sharply in recent years. While in 2010 there were only three cities with their own minimum wages exceeding the state or federal standard, by 2020 there were 42. This new phenomenon raises the question: is it desirable to have city-level variation in minimum wage polices? We discuss the main trade-offs emerging from local variation in minimum wage polices and evaluate their empirical relevance. First, we document what type of cities raise minimum wages, and we discuss how these characteristics can potentially impact the effectiveness of city-level minimum wage policies. Second, we summarize the evolving evidence on city-level minimum wage changes and provide some new evidence of our own. Early evidence suggests that the impact of the policy on wages and employment to date has been broadly similar to the evidence on state- and federal-level minimum wage changes. Overall, city-level minimum wages seem to be able to tailor the policy to the local economic environment without imposing substantial distortions in allocation of labor and businesses across locations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
auch erschienen als: NBER working paper , 27928 -
Literaturhinweis
The minimum wage and annual earnings inequality (2021)
Engelhardt, Gary V.; Purcell, Patrick J.;Zitatform
Engelhardt, Gary V. & Patrick J. Purcell (2021): The minimum wage and annual earnings inequality. In: Economics Letters, Jg. 207. DOI:10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110001
Abstract
"We estimate the impact of the minimum wage on U.S. male annual earnings inequality, using administrative Social Security earnings records from 1981-2015. The minimum wage reduces inequality in the bottom quartile of the earnings distribution, and especially in the bottom decile." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2021 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Rise of American Minimum Wages, 1912-1968 (2021)
Fishback, Price V.; Seltzer, Andrew;Zitatform
Fishback, Price V. & Andrew Seltzer (2021): The Rise of American Minimum Wages, 1912-1968. In: The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Jg. 35, H. 1, S. 73-96. DOI:10.1257/jep.35.1.73
Abstract
"This paper studies the judicial, political, and intellectual battles over minimum wages from the early state laws of the 1910s through the peak in the real federal minimum in 1968. Early laws were limited to women and children and were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court between 1923 and 1937. The first federal law in 1938 initially exempted large portions of the workforce and set rates that became effectively obsolete during World War II. Later amendments raised minimum rates, but coverage did not expand until 1961. The states led the way in rates and coverage in the 1940s and 50s and again since the 1980s. The most contentious questions of today—the impact of minimum wages on earnings and employment—were already being addressed by economists in the 1910s. By about 1960, these discussions had surprisingly modern concerns about causality but did not have modern econometric tools or data." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Ähnliche Treffer
auch erschienen als: NBER working paper , 26937 -
Literaturhinweis
Are Minimum Wage Effects Greater in Low-Wage Areas? (2021)
Zitatform
Godoey, Anna & Michael Reich (2021): Are Minimum Wage Effects Greater in Low-Wage Areas? In: Industrial Relations, Jg. 60, H. 1, S. 36-83. DOI:10.1111/irel.12267
Abstract
"Empirical work on the minimum wage typically estimates effects averaged across high- and low-wage areas. Low-wage labor markets could potentially be less able to absorb minimum wage increases, in turn leading to more negative employment effects. In this article, we examine minimum wage effects in low-wage counties, where relative minimum wage ratios reach as high as 0.82, well beyond the state-based ratios in extant studies. Using data from the American Community Survey, the Quarterly Workforce Indicators, and the Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages, we implement event study and difference-in-differences methods, estimating average causal effects for all events in our sample and separately for areas with lower and higher impacts. We find positive wage effects, especially in high-impact counties, but do not detect adverse effects on employment, weekly hours, or annual weeks worked. We do not find negative employment effects among women, Blacks, and/or Hispanics. In high-impact counties, we find substantial declines in household and child poverty. These results inform policy debates about providing exemptions to a $15 federal minimum wage in low-wage areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, Published by arrangement with John Wiley & Sons) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data (2021)
Gopalan, Radhakrishnan; Sovich, David; Kalda, Ankit; Hamilton, Barton;Zitatform
Gopalan, Radhakrishnan, Barton Hamilton, Ankit Kalda & David Sovich (2021): State Minimum Wages, Employment, and Wage Spillovers: Evidence from Administrative Payroll Data. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 39, H. 3, S. 673-707. DOI:10.1086/711355
Abstract
"We use administrative payroll data to estimate the effect of the minimum wage on employment and wages. We find that both effects are nuanced. While the overall number of low-wage workers in firms declines, incumbent workers are no less likely to remain employed. We find that firms reduce employment primarily through hiring, and there is significant heterogeneity across the non-tradable and tradable sectors. For wages, we find modest spillovers extending up to $2.50 above the minimum wage. Spillovers accrue to both incumbent workers and new hires, but only within firms that employ a significant fraction of low-wage workers." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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