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Veranstaltungsreihe: IAB-Colloquium

Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftler die Ergebnisse ihrer Forschungsarbeit vor und diskutieren diese mit Expertinnen und Experten aus dem IAB. Auch Interessierte aus Arbeitsverwaltung, Politik und Praxis sind willkommen.

In the light of global megatrends such as ageing, globalisation, technological transformation and climate change, the 2019 ESDE is dedicated to sustainability.

One of the major sustainability challenges is sluggish productivity growth despite accelerating technological change and the increasing qualification levels of the EU labour force. We explore the preconditions for sustained economic growth, based on region-level and firm-level data analysis, focusing on complementarities between efficiency, innovation, human capital, job quality, fairness and working conditions. We identify policies that could boost productivity without increasing inequality.

We examine the impact of climate action on the economy and on employment, income and skills. In the light of EU welfare losses from climate inaction, we examine the sectors in which employment and value generation are taking place in the EU economy, estimate the overall impact of climate action in EU Member States, following a full implementation of the Paris agreement, on GDP and employment, as well as its potential impact on job polarisation.

Our main conclusion is that tackling climate change and preserving growth go hand in hand. We highlight a number of policy options to preserve the EU's competitiveness, sustain growth and spread its benefits to the entire EU population, while pursuing an ambitious transition to a climate-neutral economy.

Recent studies have proposed causal machine learning (CML) methods to estimate conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). In this study, I investigate whether CML methods add value compared to conventional CATE estimators by re-evaluating Connecticut’s Jobs First welfare experiment. This experiment entails a mix of positive and negative work incentives. Previous studies show that it is hard to tackle the effect heterogeneity of Jobs First by means of CATEs. I report evidence that CML methods can provide support for the theoretical labor supply predictions. Furthermore, I document reasons why some conventional CATE estimators fail and discuss the limitations of CML methods.

The presentation is about the nature and how to clean errors in occupational coding in order to measure patterns of occupational mobility (US, UK and Canada). Furthermore it is shed light on how occupational mobility matters for cyclical earnings inequality (based on Carrillo-Tudela, Visschers and Wiczer, 2019), unemployment and its duration distribution (based on Carrillo-Tudela and Visschers, 2019) and cleansing and sullying effects of the business cycle (based on Carrillo-Tudela, Sumerfield and Visschers, 2019).

Starting with a comparison between the life-course approach and Bourdieu, the study focuses the relation between social origin and habitus on typical patterns of education- and employment trajectories. Therefore, it tries to provide a test of the social reproduction theory of Pierre Bourdieu using a subsample of longitudinal data from the adult cohort of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS). Theoretically, we assume that the social class of one’s origin-family defines the process of socialization and hence the habitus of its members and is cumulative predictive for the generalizable patterns of educational- and employment sequences starting with school entry up to age 30. The individual or class-specific habitus as a “whole set of practices (or those of a whole set of agents produced by similar conditions)” (Bourdieu 1984:170) should hence correspond to differences in successful sequence-patterns, measured personality-traits and attitudes suggesting a stable class-specific realization of the habitus.

Das Beziehungs- und Familienpanel pairfam steht vor tiefgreifenden Veränderungen: Im Zuge der Fusion mit dem Generations and Gender Program (GGP) zur gemeinsamen Forschungsinfrastruktur FReDA (Family Research and Demographic Analysis) wird auch das Erhebungsdesign der Panelstudie umgestellt. Die bisherigen Face-to-face-Interviews wird ab 2021 eine Mixed-mode-Befragung ersetzen, in der die Befragten zwischen einem web-basierten Interview und einem Papierfragebogen entscheiden können. Diese Entscheidung zieht weitere Veränderungen im Design nach sich, etwa hinsichtlich Frageprogramm und Filterführung, Verwendung von Preloads und Event-History-Calendar bis hin zum zeitlichen Verlauf der Studie. Gerade in einer laufenden Studie ergibt sich hierdurch das Problem, dass Moduseffekte Längsschnittanalysen verzerren können. In diesem Vortrag werden methodische Herausforderungen eines derartigen Moduswechsels in einer laufenden Panelstudie sowie unsere Vorbereitungen und methodische Begleitung des Moduswechsels dargestellt.

Die Flüchtlings- und Asylpolitik der Europäischen Union steckt in einer Sackgasse. Die Lasten der Aufnahme von Schutzsuchenden aus den Krisenregionen in Europas Umfeld sind ungerecht verteilt. So verweigern einige Staaten die Aufnahme, indes andere durch Regelungen wie das Dublin-Abkommen mit einer großen Zahl von Flüchtlingen überfordert werden. Jedoch: Gerade dort, wo die größte Erfahrung in der Aufnahme und Integration besteht, sind neue und innovative Ansätze zu finden - nämlich in den Kommunen, europaweit. Die Arbeitsgruppe von Prof. Dr. Petra Bendel und anderen untersucht die Rolle von Städten und Städtenetzwerken in Europa. Als Politik-Empfehlung entwickelte sie neue Modelle der Finanzierung, der Partnerschaft und eines Matching-Systems, das die Erfahrungen und Interessen von Kommunen wie von Geflüchteten gleichermaßen ernst nimmt.

Ein moderner und nachhaltiger Sozialstaat braucht eine gesunde Mischung aus staatlicher Fürsorge und Eigenverantwortung. Die Hartz-Reformen versuchten, die richtige Mischung mit dem Prinzip des Förderns und Forderns in der Grundsicherung herzustellen. Zahlreiche Menschen sind seither nicht mehr länger auf staatliche Fürsorge angewiesen, sondern können wieder für sich selbst sorgen. Doch zeigen sich zunehmend auch Schwächen eines in die Jahre gekommenen Grundsicherungssystems, insbesondere an den Schnittstellen zwischen seinen unterschiedlichen Instrumenten. In dieser Arbeit wird eine neue Grundsicherungsarchitektur entwickelt, die das vorhandene Instrumentarium der Sozialpolitik besser nutzt und aufeinander abstimmt. Sie setzt dabei an einer ursachenorientierten Existenzsicherung an. Drei Eckpunkte charakterisieren das neue System.

  • Eine zu versteuernde Kindergrundsicherung, die Familien
    stärker als bislang unterstützt,
  • eine Wohnbedarfssicherung und
  • eine Regelbedarfssicherung für Erwerbsfähige.

Die neuen Grundsicherungsleistungen sind so miteinander verzahnt, dass die Schnittstellenprobleme nicht mehr auftreten und zugleich der Anreiz zur Selbsthilfe gegenüber dem jetzigen System deutlich gestärkt wird.

Often asked questions concerning business surveys are:

  • What will be the increase in response rates if we apply such-and-such measure(s)?
  • What would be perfect timing for these measures? And,
  • What will be the costs?

Basically these questions ask for an efficient strategy to get response, aiming for a cost-efficient survey design both for the survey organisation (like a National Statistical Institute) and businesses alike, not burdening and chasing businesses too much. The effects of measures to get response for business surveys have not been studied systematically as much as for social surveys. Obvious reasons for this may be the fact that business surveys are mandatory by law, and the costs involved in getting response are not as
high as for social surveys using CAPI or CATI. Nowadays however, with ever decreasing budgets, and the pressure to reduce response burden even more efficient business surveys designs are required. An overview of various measures has been presented by Snijkers et al. (2013), but quantitative information to answer the above mentioned questions was to a large extend still lacking. In a study conducted at Statistics Netherlands (Snijkers et al., 2018) the effects of various measures to get response have been analysed for a number of business surveys, without doing an experiment. These measures include the obvious measures, like sending advance letters to
businesses introducing the survey and soliciting survey response, sending pre-due data reminders, and after the due date sending one or more reminder letters. For one survey (the Survey on International Trade in Goods) we modelled the effects of these measures using survival analysis, to find out what would have happened without any of these measures. At the
lecture the results will be presented.

We study the long-run effects of soft commitments and reminders on academic performance. In
a randomized field experiment, our first treatment consisted of sending students in a
7-semester bachelor's degree program reminders about the recommended study structure
each semester. The second treatment group received the same reminders but in the first
semester were on top offered the opportunity to commit to the recommended study structure
with a non-binding agreement. After 5 years, we find that the reminders did not generate any
effects on academic performance. The soft commitment device treatment on the other hand is
highly effective: after 5 years, students in the commitment treatment are 14 percentage points
more likely to have graduated, 9 percentage points less likely to have dropped out, and their
time to graduation is 0.35 semesters shorter than that of the controls – while maintaining the
same GPA as the controls.

Almost eight million forced migrants arrived in West Germany after WWII. We study empirically how regional conditions affected their economic, social and political integration. We first document large cross-regional differences in integration outcomes. We then show that high inflows of migrants and a large agrarian base hampered integration. Religious differences between migrants and natives had no effect on economic integration. Yet, they decreased intermarriage rates and strengthened anti-migrant parties. Based on our estimates, we simulate the regional distribution of migrants that maximizes their labor force participation. Inner-German migration in the 1950s brought the actual distribution closer to its optimum.