Beschreibung

"The German and the Austrian labour markets have been opened for labour migration from the eight Central and Eastern European countries which joined the EU in 2004 (EU-8) by May 1, 2011. Although these two countries are the latest countries which introduce the free movement of labour, the uncertainty on the migration potential is still high. By the end of 2010, almost 2.4 citizens from the eight Central and Eastern European countries which joined the EU by May 1, 2004 resided in the old EU (EU-15). 1.6 millions of those are Polish citizens. Overall, the annual net immigration from the EU-8 into the EU-15 amounted to 210.000 persons p.a. This figure is remarkably close to the econometric estimates of the migration potential which have been carried out inter alia by Tito Boeri and Herbert Brücker in 2001 and Patricia Alvarez-Plata, Herbert Brücker and Boriss Siliverstovs in 2003: They estimated the migration potential from the EU-8 in the EU-15 seven years after Enlargement at between 1.9 and 2.9 millions, the point estimate matches exactly the 2.4 million figure which we observed by the end of 2010 (Alvarez-Plata et al., 2003). However, as outlined already before Enlargement, the studies were not able to provide correct forecasts for the individual EU-15 Member States, since the selective application of the transitional arrangements of the free movement of labour was historically unprecedented. Consequently, the diversion of migration flows away from Austria and Germany towards Ireland and the United Kingdom was not possible to forecast. <br> Today, seven years after the EU's Eastern Enlargement, forecasts of the migration potential face a similar problem: It is technically not possible to forecast the likely diversion of migration flows from Ireland and the UK to Austria and Germany. On the one hand, the favourable labour market conditions in Germany and the upswing of the business cycle makes a substantial diversion likely, on the other hand, the English language proficiency is much more widespread in the EU-15 than the German one and existing migration networks in the UK and Ireland facilitate labour movements and reduce the social and economic costs of migration. This cannot be forecasted with econometric methods. Our econometric model suggests, that after the opening of the Austrian and the German labour market the total net migration from the EU-8 into the EU-15 will amount to 250,000 persons p.a. and then stepwise decline. In 2020, about 3.9 million citizens from the EU-8 will reside in the EU-15, about 2.3 to 2.5 will be Polish citizens. If the Germany share in the total migration will number again 60 per cent as in the year 2000, about 140,000 persons p.a. will move there, if it declines to 45 per cent, about 100,000 persons. However, the legalisation of immigrants which are currently not reported by the German municipalities might raise these figures statistically in the first two years. <br> Nevertheless, migration estimates based on opinion survey which suggest that migration rates from Poland to Germany will achieve figures between 400.000 and 800.000 persons p.a. are beyond any realistic magnitude. They are not only much larger than that what we have experienced in the EU-15 during the last seven years, they exceed also even the highest immigration figures Germany ever has seen even immediately after the fall of the Berlin wall. Note that only a small fraction of individuals which reveal a migration intention in survey actually migrates later and that survey can tackle the problem of temporary and return migration accurately. A high share of the population which has a migration episode in their biography may correspond to a small proportion of the population which lives actually abroad at a certain point of time if temporary migration is widespread as it is currently the case in the enlarged EU." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))