Lohnerwartungen von Arbeitslosen / Reservation wages of the unemployed
Zu welchem Lohn sind Arbeitslose bereit, eine Beschäftigung aufzunehmen? Sinken ihre Lohnansprüche mit der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit? Werden die Lohnansprüche von der Höhe der Arbeitslosenunterstützung beeinflusst? Diese IAB-Infoplattform dokumentiert wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse zum Thema "Reservationslöhne".
For what wages are the unemployed willing to take up a job? Do their expectations regarding pay drop with the length of their unemployment? This IAB info platform presents scientific findings on "reservation wages".
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Literaturhinweis
The heterogeneous earnings impact of job loss across workers, establishments, and markets (2024)
Athey, Susan; Skans, Oskar N.; Yakymovych, Yaroslav; Vikström, Johan; Simon, Lisa K.;Zitatform
Athey, Susan, Lisa K. Simon, Oskar N. Skans, Johan Vikström & Yaroslav Yakymovych (2024): The heterogeneous earnings impact of job loss across workers, establishments, and markets. (Working papers / Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy), Uppsala, 74 S.
Abstract
"Using generalized random forests and rich Swedish administrative data, we show that the earnings effects of job displacement due to establishment closures are highly heterogeneous. We find as much heterogeneity within as across closing establishments, and within as across worker types defined by age and schooling. We display the potential of market-based policy interventions by showing that much of the heterogeneity across establishments is shared within markets. Several results suggest that the effect heterogeneity disfavors already vulnerable workers. Thus, targeted policy interventions may be justified to a larger extent than suggested by estimated average earnings effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap (2024)
Balleer, Almut; Forstner, Susanne; Duernecker, Georg; Goensch, Johannes;Zitatform
Balleer, Almut, Georg Duernecker, Susanne Forstner & Johannes Goensch (2024): Biased Expectations and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from German Survey Data and Implications for the East-West Wage Gap. (Ruhr economic papers 1062), Essen, 80 S. DOI:10.4419/96973232
Abstract
"We measure individual bias in labor market expectations in German survey data and find that workers on average significantly overestimate their individual probabilities to separate from their job when employed as well to find a job when unemployed. These biases vary significantly between population groups. Most notably, East Germans are significantly more pessimistic than West Germans. We find a significantly negative relationship between the pessimistic bias in job separation expectations and wages, and a significantly positive relationship between optimistic bias in job finding expectations and reservation incomes. We interpret and quantify the effects of (such) expectation biases on the labor market equilibrium in a search and matching model of the labor market. Removing the biases could substantially increase wages and expected lifetime income in East Germany. The difference in biases in labor market expectations explains part of the East-West German wage gap" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Wage reactions to regional and national unemployment (2024)
Zitatform
Blien, Uwe, Jan Mutl, Van Phan thi Hong & Katja Wolf (2024): Wage reactions to regional and national unemployment. In: Regional Science Policy & Practice, Jg. 16, H. 1, 2023-05-02. DOI:10.1111/rsp3.12675
Abstract
"This paper analyses the entire wage effects of unemployment for an especially long observation period. In a three-step approach, the wage reaction at national level (wage setting curve or aggregate wage equation) is added to the reaction at regional level (wage curve). Spatial models with instrumental variables are used." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Wiley) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job search with commuting and unemployment insurance: A look at workers’ strategies in time (2024)
Zitatform
Guglielminetti, Elisa, Rafael Lalive, Philippe Ruh & Etienne Wasmer (2024): Job search with commuting and unemployment insurance: A look at workers’ strategies in time. In: Labour Economics, Jg. 88. DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102537
Abstract
"Unemployed workers search for jobs that ideally offer both high wages and short commutes. But would they accept jobs with lower wages or longer commutes or both as the unemployment spell lengthens? Using a unique panel of Austrian workers, we find that job seekers do indeed accept jobs with significantly lower wages. However, the majority group of job seekers who used to commute to jobs located outside their municipality of residence tend to increasingly accept jobs in their home municipality, and do not necessarily broaden geographically their search. Based on quasi-experimental variations in the duration of unemployment benefits, we find that this evolution of commuting patterns is not linked to the loss of benefits. We explain these findings through the lens of a job search model where flexible parameters such as search costs are allowed to vary across space and time. We estimate that search costs are substantial and increase differently over time for local and non-local jobs, accounting for the patterns found in the data. A counterfactual policy exercise suggests that unemployment insurance does not hinder geographical mobility. Competing mechanisms are discussed and their role is left to future research." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Gender Gap in Earnings Losses After Job Displacement (2024)
Zitatform
Illing, Hannah, Johannes F. Schmieder & Simon Trenkle (2024): The Gender Gap in Earnings Losses After Job Displacement. In: Journal of the European Economic Association, Jg. 22, H. 5, S. 2108-2147., 2023-10-07. DOI:10.1093/jeea/jvae019
Abstract
"We compare men and women who are displaced from similar jobs by applying an event study design combined with propensity score matching and reweighting to administrative data from Germany. After a mass layoff, women’ s earnings losses are about 35% higher than men’ s, with the gap persisting five years after displacement. This is partly explained by women taking up more part-time employment, but even women’ s full-time wage losses are almost 50% higher than men’ s. Parenthood magnifies the gender gap sharply. Finally, displaced women spend less time on job search and apply for lower-paid jobs, highlighting the importance of labor supply decisions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Oxford Academic) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Unemployed Job Search across People and over Time: Evidence from Applied-for Jobs (2024)
Maibom, Jonas; Harmon, Nikolaj; Glenny, Anita; Fluchtmann, Jonas;Zitatform
Maibom, Jonas, Nikolaj Harmon, Anita Glenny & Jonas Fluchtmann (2024): Unemployed Job Search across People and over Time: Evidence from Applied-for Jobs. In: Journal of labor economics, Jg. 42, H. 4, S. 1175-1217. DOI:10.1086/725165
Abstract
"Using data on applied-for jobs for the universe of Danish UI recipients, we examine variation in job search behavior both across individuals and over time during unemployment spells. We find large differences in the level of applied-for wages across individuals but over time all individuals adjust wages downward in the same way. The decline in applied-for wages over time is descriptively small but economically important in standard models of job search. We find similar results when examining variation in the non-wage characteristics of applied-for jobs and in the search methods used to find them. We discuss implications for theory." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Unemployment: a hidden source of wage inequality? (2024)
Zitatform
Mooi-Reci, Irma & Tim F. Liao (2024): Unemployment: a hidden source of wage inequality? In: European Sociological Review. DOI:10.1093/esr/jcae029
Abstract
"Although unemployment plays a central role in the emergence of labor market disparities, rarely any studies have linked its dynamics with the overall level of wage inequality. This study addresses this gap by assessing how unemployment is associated with both between- and within-group wage disparities. Hypotheses derived from labor market theories are tested using comprehensive longitudinal data from the Dutch OSA Labour Supply Panel spanning 1985–2008. Results from newly developed variance function panel regression models demonstrate that wages of previously unemployed workers are both lower and more dispersed compared to the wages of continuously employed workers. We also found that wage disparities were more pronounced among previously unemployed men than women. The results also demonstrate the usefulness of the variance function panel regression as a method for analyzing sources that drive wage inequality within persons and over time." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy–Employer–Employee Data (2024)
Mueller, Andreas I.; Zweimüller, Josef; Osterwalder, Damian; Kettemann, Andreas;Zitatform
Mueller, Andreas I., Damian Osterwalder, Josef Zweimüller & Andreas Kettemann (2024): Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy–Employer–Employee Data. In: The Review of Economic Studies, Jg. 91, H. 3, S. 1807-1841. DOI:10.1093/restud/rdad051
Abstract
"This article explores the relationship between the duration of a vacancy and the starting wage of a new job, using linked data on vacancies, the posting establishments, and the workers eventually filling the vacancies. The unique combination of large-scale, administrative worker, establishment, and vacancy data is critical for separating establishment- and job-level determinants of vacancy duration from worker-level heterogeneity. Conditional on observables, we find that vacancy duration is negatively correlated with the starting wage and its establishment component, with precisely estimated elasticities of −0.07 and −0.21, respectively. While the negative relationship is qualitatively consistent with search-theoretic models where firms use the wage as a recruiting device, these elasticities are small, suggesting that firms’ wage policies can account only for a small fraction of the variation in vacancy filling across establishments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Skill mismatch and the costs of job displacement (2024)
Zitatform
Neffke, Frank, Ljubica Nedelkoska & Simon Wiederhold (2024): Skill mismatch and the costs of job displacement. In: Research Policy, Jg. 53. DOI:10.1016/j.respol.2023.104933
Abstract
"Establishment closures have lasting negative consequences for the workers displaced from their jobs. We study how these consequences vary with the amount of skill mismatch that workers experience after job displacement. Developing new measures of occupational skill redundancy and skill shortage, we analyze the work histories of individuals in Germany between 1975 and 2010. We estimate difference-in-differences models, using a sample of displaced workers who are matched to statistically similar non-displaced workers. We find that displacements increase the probability of occupation change eleven-fold. Moreover, the magnitude of post-displacement earnings losses strongly depends on the type of skill mismatch that workers experience in such job switches. Whereas skill shortages are associated with relatively quick returns to the earnings trajectories that displaced workers would have experienced absent displacement, skill redundancy sets displaced workers on paths with permanently lower earnings. We show that these differences can be attributed to differences in mismatch after displacement, and not to intrinsic differences between workers making different post-displacement career choices." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Unemployment's long shadow: the persistent impact on social exclusion (2024)
Zitatform
Pohlan, Laura (2024): Unemployment's long shadow: the persistent impact on social exclusion. In: Journal for labour market research, Jg. 58, 2024-06-06. DOI:10.1186/s12651-024-00369-8
Abstract
"This paper studies the long-term consequences of unemployment on different dimensions of social exclusion. Based on longitudinal linked survey and administrative data from Germany and an event study analysis combined with inverse propensity score weighting, I document that becoming unemployed has lasting adverse effects on both individuals’ material well-being and their subjective perception of social status and integration, persisting even after four years. An examination of effect heterogeneity underscores that the enduring effects of job loss are more pronounced for individuals confronted with challenging labor market conditions, those with a history of repeated unemployment, and individuals with lower levels of educational attainment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © Springer-Verlag) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Variation in unemployment scarring across labor markets. A comparative factorial survey experiment using real vacancies (2024)
Zitatform
Sacchi, Stefan & Robin Samuel (2024): Variation in unemployment scarring across labor markets. A comparative factorial survey experiment using real vacancies. In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Jg. 93. DOI:10.1016/j.rssm.2024.100959
Abstract
"Unemployment may severely impede access to (good) jobs. We focus on the effects of unemployment scarring on the chances of young workers to get hired and evaluate the extent to which they are affected in labor markets with different levels of unemployment. Drawing on Goffman’s work on stigmatization andon queuing theory, we derive two potentially complementary micro-level explanations with opposing macro-level implication. We address the variation in unemployment scarring across 20 labor markets in four European countries based on factorial survey experiments embedded in real hiring situations. The results suggest that in labor markets with persistently low levels of unemployment, stigmatization, as proposed by Goffman, is the main source of unemployment scarring. We find no evidence that unemployment scarring is weaker when unemployment and the number of job seekers are low, as we inferred from queuing approaches. Our study contributes to expanding knowledge of context variability in unemployment scarring." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku, © 2024 Elsevier) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job Displacement and Migrant Labor Market Assimilation (2023)
Balgová, Mária; Illing, Hannah;Zitatform
Balgová, Mária & Hannah Illing (2023): Job Displacement and Migrant Labor Market Assimilation. (ECONtribute discussion paper 246), Köln ; Bonn, 68 S.
Abstract
"This paper sheds new light on the barriers to migrants' labor market assimilation. Using administrative data for Germany from 1997-2016, we estimate dynamic difference-in-differences regressions to investigate the relative trajectory of earnings, wages, and employment following mass layoff separately for migrants and natives. We show that job displacement affects the two groups differently even when we systematically control for pre-layoff differences in their characteristics: migrants have on average higher earnings losses, and they find it much more difficult to find employment. However, those who do find a new job experience faster wage growth compared to displaced natives. We examine several potential mechanisms and find that these gaps are driven by labor market conditions, such as local migrant networks and labor market tightness, rather than migrants' behavior." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
Beteiligte aus dem IAB
Illing, Hannah; -
Literaturhinweis
The Unequal Consequences of Job Loss across Countries (2023)
Bertheau, Antoine; Barceló, Cristina; Acabbi, Edoardo Maria; Saggio, Raffaele; Gulyas, Andreas ; Lombardi, Stefano;Zitatform
Bertheau, Antoine, Edoardo Maria Acabbi, Cristina Barceló, Andreas Gulyas, Stefano Lombardi & Raffaele Saggio (2023): The Unequal Consequences of Job Loss across Countries. In: The American economic review. Insights, Jg. 5, H. 3, S. 393-408. DOI:10.1257/aeri.20220006
Abstract
"We document the consequences of losing a job across countries using a harmonized research design applied to seven matched employer-employee datasets. Workers in Denmark and Sweden experience the lowest earnings declines following job displacement, while workers in Italy, Spain, and Portugal experience losses three times as high. French and Austrian workers face earnings losses somewhere in between. Key to these differences is that southern European workers are less likely to find employment following displacement. Loss of employer-specific wage premiums explains a substantial portion of wage losses in all countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
The Accuracy of Job Seekers' Wage Expectations (2023)
Zitatform
Caliendo, Marco, Robert Mahlstedt, Aiko Schmeißer & Sophie Wagner (2023): The Accuracy of Job Seekers' Wage Expectations. (arXiv papers), 49 S. DOI:10.48550/arXiv.2309.14044
Abstract
"Job seekers’ misperceptions about the labor market can distort their decision-making and increase the risk of long-term unemployment. Our study establishes objective benchmarks for the subjective wage expectations of unemployed workers. This enables us to provide novel insights into the accuracy of job seekers’ wage expectations. First, especially workers with low objective earnings potential tend to display excessively optimistic beliefs about their future wages and anchor their wage expectations too strongly to their pre-unemployment wages. Second, among long-term unemployed workers, overoptimism remains persistent throughout the unemployment spell. Third, higher extrinsic incentives to search more intensively lead job seekers to hold more optimistic wage expectations, yet this does not translate into higher realized wages for them. Lastly, we document a connection between overoptimistic wage expectations and job seekers’ tendency to overestimate their reemployment chances. We discuss the role of information frictions and motivated beliefs as potential sources of job seekers’ optimism and the heterogeneity in their beliefs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
What do women want in a job? Gender-biased preferences and the reservation wage gap (2023)
Elass, Kenza;Zitatform
Elass, Kenza (2023): What do women want in a job? Gender-biased preferences and the reservation wage gap. (French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 15), Marseille, 43 S.
Abstract
"Recent explanations of the gender wage gap emphasize the role of gender differences in psychological traits. Nevertheless, there have been only a limited number of studies confirming the relevance of these factors for labor market outcomes. This presentation assesses the role of gender-specific preferences in the reservation wage gap during the job search. I use French administrative data from the unemployment insurance agency providing information on job search behavior and previous outcomes to assess which kind of occupations men and women apply for and the gap in their reservation wages. Employing text analysis, I build a novel dataset classifying occupations with respect to a number of characteristics and examine to which extent men and women differ in the occupation they are looking for. I document widespread gender differences in the occupation characteristics targeted by job seekers. Quantile decomposition methods allow me to document an unequal gap in reservation wage, intensifying along the distribution. After I adjust for occupation characteristics reflecting gender-biased preferences and household constraints, the unexplained part of the reservation wage gap is decreased by half. Investigating unemployment history and outcomes from previous interviews with firms, I do not find evidence of a female risk aversion to previous unemployment shocks or male overconfidence." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Estimating Duration Dependence on Re-employment Wages When Reservation Wages Are Binding (2023)
Grice, Richard; Liu, Kaixin; Martinez, Victor Hernandez;Zitatform
Grice, Richard, Victor Hernandez Martinez & Kaixin Liu (2023): Estimating Duration Dependence on Re-employment Wages When Reservation Wages Are Binding. (Working paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2023,21), Cleveland, OH, 51 S. DOI:10.26509/frbc-wp-202321
Abstract
"This paper documents a novel finding indicating that re-employment wages are elastic to the level of unemployment insurance (i.e., a binding reservation wage) and adapts the IV estimator for duration dependence in Schmieder et al. (2016) to account for this fact. Using administrative data from Spain, we find that unemployed workers lower their re-employment wages by 3 percent immediately after the exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Workers' characteristics and permanent unobserved heterogeneity cannot explain this. To estimate duration dependence, we extend the IV framework proposed by Schmieder et al. (2016), whose estimator of duration dependence is proportional to the response of wages to an extension of the potential duration of UI, to account for the response of reservation wages. We find that while extending the potential duration of UI has an insignificant effect on re-employment wages, duration dependence is strongly negative. We estimate that the degree of duration dependence in Spain is approximately 0.8 percent per month in daily wages. Workers' inability to find full-time jobs as the duration of non-employment increases is an important mechanism behind this effect, since the duration dependence of hourly wages is 0.25 percent per month. Failing to account for the fact that reservation wages are binding would underestimate the magnitude of duration dependence by 15 to 20 percent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Gender Differences in Reservation Wages in Search Experiments (2023)
Zitatform
McGee, Andrew & Peter McGee (2023): Gender Differences in Reservation Wages in Search Experiments. (IZA discussion paper / Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit 16577), Bonn, 26 S.
Abstract
"Women report setting lower reservation wages than men in survey data. We show that women set reservation wages that are 14 to 18 percent lower than men's in laboratory search experiments that control for factors not fully observed in surveys such as offer distributions and outside options. This gender gap—which exists even controlling for overconfidence, preferences, personality, and intelligence—leads women to spend less time searching than men while accepting lower wages. Women—but not men—set reservation wages that are too low relative to theoretically optimal values given their risk preferences early in search, reducing their earnings." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
How should job displacement wage losses be insured?: Wage losses upon re-employment can seriously harm long-tenured displaced workers if they are not properly insured (2023)
Parsons, Donald O.;Zitatform
Parsons, Donald O. (2023): How should job displacement wage losses be insured? Wage losses upon re-employment can seriously harm long-tenured displaced workers if they are not properly insured. (IZA world of labor 446), Bonn, 10 S. DOI:10.15185/izawol.446.v2
Abstract
"Job displacement represents a serious earnings risk to long-tenured workers through lower re-employment wages, and these losses may persist for many years. Moreover, this risk is often poorly insured, although not for a lack of policy interest. To reduce this risk, most countries mandate scheduled wage insurance (severance pay), although it is provided only voluntarily in others, including the US. Actual-loss wage insurance is uncommon, although perceived difficulties may be overplayed. Both approaches offer the hope of greater consumption smoothing, with actual-loss plans carrying greater promise, but more uncertainty, of success." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Labor Market News and Expectations about Jobs & Earnings (2023)
Zitatform
Schmidpeter, Bernhard (2023): Labor Market News and Expectations about Jobs & Earnings. (Working paper / Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler Universität of Linz 2023-14), Linz, 30 S.
Abstract
"Little is known about how workers update expectations about job search and earnings when exposed to labor market news. To identify the impact of news on expectations, I exploit Foxconn's unexpected announcement to build a manufacturing plant in Racine County. Exposure to positive news leads to an increase in expected salary growth at the current firm. Individuals also revise their expectations about outside offers upward, anchoring their beliefs to Foxconn's announced wages. They act on their updated beliefs with a small increase in current consumption. Negative news from a scaled-down plan leads to a revision of expectations back toward baseline." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
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Literaturhinweis
Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss (2022)
Audoly, Richard; Pace, Federica De; Fella, Giulio;Zitatform
Audoly, Richard, Federica De Pace & Giulio Fella (2022): Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss. (Staff reports / Federal Reserve Bank of New York 1043), New York, NY, 48 S.
Abstract
"High-tenure workers losing their job experience a large and prolonged fall in wages and earnings. The aim of this paper is to understand and quantify the forces behind this empirical regularity. We propose a structural model of the labor market with (i) on-the-job search, (ii) general human capital, and (iii) firm-specific human capital. Jobs are destroyed at an endogenous rate due to idiosyncratic productivity shocks and the skills of workers depreciate during periods of non-employment. The model is estimated on German Social Security data. By jointly matching moments related to workers’ mobility and wages, the model can replicate the size and persistence of the losses in earnings and wages observed in the data. We find that the loss of a job with a more productive employer is the primary driver of the cumulative wage losses following displacement (about 50 percent), followed by the loss of firm-specific human capital (about 30 percent)." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))