The economy and the labour market are subject to constant change. This change is influenced not only by long-term developments such as demographic shifts or globalisation, as well as by digital transformation, the impact of climate change, and unexpected events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In this focus area, the IAB analyses and forecasts how and to what extent this affects changes in the labour market.
It considers a variety of processes and effects, for example employment and unemployment trends, demand for labour and skilled workers, and the ramifications for pay, continuing professional development, working conditions and the supply of labour. This research is also conducted at the occupational level, in particular, as structural change is echoed in adjustments to vocational requirements, skills and activities. The effects of this change generally vary by region, so the analyses often focus on regional differences.
In 2024, the focus area continues to examine how the use of the latest technologies is shaping the labour market. The spotlight is increasingly on the transformation brought about by, or potentially brought about by, the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the labour market. To this end, we are updating the IAB-Jobfuturomat, an online tool that displays the potential for jobs to be replaced by technology. Research also looks at the impact that the actual use of digital technologies in companies is having on employment and pay.
We are also collecting new employee data in order to analyse how the structure of workplace tasks and requirements is changing as a result of digital technologies. Using illustrative calculations, we will produce long-term forecasts of regional demand for skilled workers and qualifications, and show how the supply of, and demand for, qualifications and occupations could change in the long term as a result of digitalisation and decarbonisation.
We are also developing new AI-based methods for analysing job advertisements on the Federal Employment Agency’s job exchange. These will be used to document the relatively rapid changes to job specifications, and thus determine which skills and qualifications are in demand and what kind of CPD is required.
In 2024, we will also be exploring in greater depth the challenges facing the labour market as a result of climate change. Among other things, we will look at trends in occupations with a high proportion of activities that have either a positive or negative impact on the climate and the environment. We will also examine what effects the growing use of green technologies, such as hydrogen-based technologies, might have on employment and qualifications, and whether the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) could have drawbacks for employees when it comes to job stability, wage growth and cumulative earnings.
Activities
- Publications on the topic: Labour Market in Structural Change
- Projects on the topic: Labour Market in Structural Change
Departments
- Research Group Occupations in the Transformation
- Research Department Education, Training, and Employment Over the Life Course
- Research Department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses
- Research Department Regional Labour Markets
- Regional Research Network
- Junior Research Group Occupations and Employment Trajectories
- Working Group Occupations
- Working Group Digital and ecological transformation
