The labour market is undergoing profound changes due to long-term transformation processes such as digitalisation or immigration, and short-term events such as economic crises. Starting from a broad, macroeconomic perspective, the IAB examines key aspects such as ‘search and matching’ processes in the labour market, the impact of institutional regula-tions on the labour market, and the role of reforms, trade, migration, technological and demographic change, and the economic situation. Occupations and qualifications play an important role when it comes to analysing and forecasting labour supply and demand.
Primary sources of data are the IAB job vacancy survey (IAB-Stellenerhebung), the sample of integrated welfare benefit biographies (Stichprobe Integrierte Grundsicherungsbiografien) and the IAB working time measurement concept (IAB-Arbeitszeitrechnung), as well as macroeconomic data such as the national accounts. Big data is also analysed, i.e. very large volumes of – sometimes rapidly changing – structured and unstructured data that is generated online. The methodology underpinning the IAB’s micro-simulation model and short and long-term forecast models is constantly being refined.
In view of increasing shortages in the labour market and the expected shrinking of the workforce for demographic rea-sons, the focus area will target its research in 2024 at ways to ensure a sufficient supply of skilled workers. The methods used to produce forecasts on the labour supply side are being improved in order to better estimate the expected trends and the potential means of mitigation. The economic impact of a shrinking workforce will also be analysed. On the labour demand side, the ongoing analysis of demand is supported by monitoring based on the IAB job vacancy survey. Scenario analyses are used to examine new requirements arising from the transformation, for example in the event that the hy-drogen sector is ramped up.
Migration has enormous potential to offset the impact of a shrinking workforce. With this in mind, the focus area examines how controlled labour migration can help to bridge shortages, and how immigrants can be successfully integrated into the labour market.
When it comes to safeguarding the supply of labour, it is also important to consider how legislation affects the relation-ship between welfare benefits and the supply of labour. In particular, the spotlight is on new, upcoming regulations re-lated to the introduction of a basic child benefit scheme and supplementary income options for recipients of basic income support.
Activities
Departments
- Research Department Labour Market Processes and Institutions
- Research Group Basic Income Support and the Labour Market
- Research Department Migration and International Labour Studies
- Research Department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses
