The economy and the labour market are in constant flux, a situation that is shaped not only by long-term developments such as demographic change and globalisation but also by factors such as the digital revolution, the impact of climate change and unexpected crises. In this focus area, the IAB analyses and forecasts how and to what extent this affects changes in the labour market. It considers a variety of processes and effects, for example employment and unemployment trends, demand for skilled and unskilled workers, and the ramifications for pay, CPD, working conditions and the supply of labour. This research is also conducted at the occupational level, in particular, as structural change is echoed in adjustments to vocational requirements, skills and roles. The effects of this change generally vary by region, so the analyses often focus on regional differences.
In 2025, the focus area will continue to examine how use of the latest technologies is affecting the labour market. New forms of employment, such as gig work, will be studied for the first time. Furthermore, new data on employees and information from job advertisements will be collated in order to analyse how the structure of workplace roles and requirements is changing as a result of digital technologies. Illustrative calculations will be used to produce short-term and long-term forecasts of regional demand for skilled workers and qualifications and to show how the supply of, and demand for, qualifications and occupations could change in the long term as a result of digitalisation and decarbonisation. The focus area will also assess whether companies respond differently to trade shocks than to technology shocks. In addition, there will be analysis of whether and how the wage premiums offered by companies differ for employees in routine and non-routine occupations and how these differences have evolved over time.
In 2025, greater emphasis will be placed on research into the effects of environmental transformation and the resulting need for adaptation. This will also involve looking at which types of CPD are suitable for providing employees with the right skills for environmental transformation. Furthermore, the IAB will examine whether there are gender gaps in terms of how decarbonisation affects employment opportunities and pay. In doing so, it will compare the changes in occupations involving green skills compared with changes in other occupations. It will also analyse the likely consequences of the increased use of green technologies (e.g. hydrogen technologies) for employment and skills training as well as investigate whether regional conditions and initiatives facilitate seamless job-to-job transitions for those affected by structural change.
Activities
- Publications on the topic: Labour Market in Structural Change
- Projects on the topic: Labour Market in Structural Change
Departments
- Research Group Occupations in the Transformation
- Research Department Education, Training, and Employment Over the Life Course
- Research Department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses
- Research Department Regional Labour Markets
- Regional Research Network
- Junior Research Group Occupations and Employment Trajectories
- Working Group Occupations
- Working Group Digital and ecological transformation
