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European Labour Market Barometer remains high

After rising four times in a row, there is no further increase in the European Labour Market Barometer in May. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) remains at 103.4 points – the same level as for April. The assessments of the development of unemployment and employment continue to be positive.

“The outlook for the European labour market did not improve further in May, but employment is likely to develop remarkably well despite difficult conditions,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. Although the outlook for the European labour markets continues to be positive, there is still the risk of the Russia-Ukraine war escalating further or of there being a widespread halt in energy supplies.

There are only slight changes to note in the outlook for the development of unemployment and employment. The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures rose by 0.1 point. The sub-indicator for employment, on the other hand, fell by 0.1 point. “The assessments of the public employment services in the participating countries are currently very similar, with differences becoming even more marginal in May,” adds Weber.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average. The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer.

European Labour Market Barometer: European labour market still on the path to recovery despite the Russia-Ukraine war

Despite the war in Ukraine, the European Labour Market Barometer rises again in April 2022 for the fourth time in a row. Compared to March, the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by one point to 104.4 points, thereby reaching its third-highest value since the time series began in summer 2018.

In April, the second barometer value of the leading indicator since the war in Ukraine began rose in most of the participating countries compared to March or remained the same. All countries whose barometers fell in March rallied again in April with there being only rather small deviations between the barometer values for the participating countries at the moment. “Many European employment services currently view the outlook for the labour markets in their countries in a similarly positive light,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast.

The outlook for the development of both unemployment and employment over the coming months continues to improve overall. However, there are large risks regarding the potential further geopolitical expansion of the Ukraine crisis or a halt in energy supplies. The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 1.1 points to 103.7 points compared to March. The value therefore continues to signal a decline in unemployment in the months to come. The sub-indicator for employment growth rises by 0.8 points to 105 points, clearly lying in the positive range. “Despite the setbacks due to the war in Ukraine, the European labour market is still on the path to recovery,” emphasises Weber.

The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2020/kb2120.pdf.

European Labour Market Barometer: Upswing in European labour market expected to continue despite the Ukraine war

Despite the war in Ukraine, the European Labour Market Barometer rises again in March 2022 for the third time in a row. Compared to February, the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by 0.4 points to 103.4 points.

In March, the first barometer value of the leading indicator after the start of the Ukraine war rose in most of the participating countries compared to February or remained the same. The barometer rises in all Eastern European countries. “The participating public employment services in Eastern Europe are not expecting a slump in their labour markets,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. However, several countries also show downturns, though none fall below the neutral mark of 100 points.

Overall, the outlook for the development of both unemployment and employment continues to improve, but the expected upswing could be thwarted depending on how the Ukraine war progresses. Compared to February, the sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 0.4 points to 102.6 points. The value thus continues to signal a decline in unemployment in the coming months. The sub-indicator for employment growth rises by 0.4 points to 104.2 points, clearly lying in the positive range. “The European labour market will most likely continue to recover from the COVID crisis, but the risk of an even broader escalation of the Ukraine war or a halt in energy supplies remains,” adds Weber.

European Labour Market Barometer: Outlook for the European labour market continues to brighten

After a continuous decline from June to December 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer rises again in February 2022 for the second time in a row. Compared to January, the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by 1.2 points to 103.0 points. The survey period on which the barometer is based ended in mid-February, so it does not yet map the possible effects of the Russian attack on Ukraine.

“The fact that the end of COVID restrictions is in sight in many countries speaks for a clear spring revival, but the consequences of the war in Ukraine may lead to a damper,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. Compared to January, the European Labour Market Barometer stayed the same or rose in almost all of the participating countries in February. The barometer shows an increase everywhere in the Eastern European countries. These results reflect the status before the Russian attack on Ukraine, however.

A more optimistic outlook is revealed for employment and even more so for unemployment. “The expectations of the European public employment services regarding the development of unemployment have improved significantly since the beginning of the year,” says Weber. Compared to January, the sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 1.6 points to 102.2 points. The value therefore lies above the neutral mark of 100 points once again and signals a decline in unemployment. The sub-indicator for seasonally adjusted employment growth rises by 0.9 points to 103.8 points.

European Labour Market Barometer: First rise since June 2021

After a comparatively stark decline in December 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer rose again slightly for the first time since June 2021. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by 0.6 points in January compared with December to 101.8 points.

“There is a brighter outlook on the European labour market as the year begins, but the pandemic still poses a risk,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. It is primarily in Central Europe that the barometer is recovering, whereas the values in Eastern Europe are rather weak at the moment.

The European Labour Market Barometer’s two sub-indicators are both rising. The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 0.8 points compared with December to 100.6 points. The indicator therefore lies above the middle mark of 100 points and signals a slight decrease in unemployment. The sub-indicator for seasonally adjusted employment growth rises by 0.4 points to 102.9 points. The outlook for employment has therefore improved and is still good. “The European economy might be able to get out of the slump it has been in since the autumn,” says Weber.

European Labour Market Barometer: Unemployment in Europe is no longer on the decline for the time being

In December 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer fell for the sixth time running, dropping by 1.2 points compared with November to 101.2 points. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) thus records it second-biggest decline in its history since April 2020.

“The Omicron wave is already casting a shadow over the outlook on the European labour market,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. The barometer is primarily showing a decline in the Central European countries of Austria, Liechtenstein, Germany, the Czech Republic, Belgium-Wallonia and Switzerland.

The barometer’s two sub-indicators both lose more than one point. The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures falls by 1.5 points compared to November 2021, standing at 99.8 points in December. The indicator therefore lies below the middle mark of 100 points for the first time since February 2021. “This means that the decline in unemployment in Europe has ceased for the time being,” says Weber. The sub-indicator for seasonally adjusted employment growth falls by 1.1 points to 102.5 points. This continues to be a good value and still correlates with a favourable employment outlook overall.

European Labour Market Barometer: improvement of the European labour market slows down

In November 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer fell for the fifth time running, dropping by 0.7 points compared with October to 102.4 points. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) still remains higher than before the COVID-19 crisis, but it is no longer as high as it was up to the middle of 2019. The continued improvement in the labour market situation in the European states has slowed to a moderate pace.

“The European public employment services still see the labour market as being on the up, but it seems that the further decline in unemployment will be much slower than it has been recently,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. “The global supply bottlenecks are currently curbing the recovery,” says Weber. The barometer in Iceland, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Lithuania and Poland lies below the 100 mark at the moment, signalling a deterioration of the labour market situation in these countries.

The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures falls by 0.9 points compared to October and stands at 101.3 points in November. This shows that the unemployment figures will continue to fall in future but will do so more slowly. The sub-indicator for future employment growth drops 0.5 points to 103.6 points. “After the strong economic recovery in the summer, the risks of the renewed flare-up of the pandemic and new measures that may be taken in many countries to stem the tide are clouding the prospects of European labour market growth,” adds Weber.

European Labour Market Barometer: higher than before the crisis despite fourth damper in a row

In October, the European Labour Market Barometer fell for the fourth time running, dropping by 0.7 points compared with September to 103.1 points. Although this means that the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) is no longer very high, it still remains at a high level and continues to signal an improvement in the labour market situation in the European states, albeit at a slower pace.

“The European labour markets are continuing to recover from the COVID crisis, but difficulties are becoming noticeable, including the global supply bottlenecks and the number of COVID-19 infections, which are rising rapidly again in some places,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. “At the moment, the changes in Europe are very heterogeneous. The same number of countries have a falling barometer as have one that is rising,” says Weber.

The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures falls by 1.2 points compared to September and stands at 102.1 points in October. This shows that the number of unemployed will continue to fall in future but will do so more slowly. The sub-indicator for future employment growth drops slightly by 0.2 points to 104.1 points. The outlook regarding employment still remains positive but is no longer as good as it was up until the middle of 2019. The value for the employment component continues to lie higher overall than the value for the unemployment component.

The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2020/kb2120.pdf.

European Labour Market Barometer: still higher than before the crisis despite third damper in a row

In September, the European Labour Market Barometer fell for the third time running, dropping by 0.6 points compared with August to 103.7 points. However, the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) is still higher than before the crisis and signals a continued improvement in the labour market situation in the European states.

“After the lockdown was lifted in many countries, the European labour markets showed a speedy recovery. That recovery will continue, but at a somewhat more moderate pace,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast.

The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures drops by 1.5 points compared to August and stands at 103.1 points in September. The sub-indicator for future employment growth, on the other hand, rose slightly by 0.3 points to 104.3 points. The value for the employment component is now higher than the value for the unemployment component again in several countries, such as Bulgaria, Germany, Austria, Poland, Portugal and Belgium-Wallonia, and therefore on the European Labour Market Barometer as a whole as well. “Before the crisis, it was normal for expectations to be more favourable for employment than for unemployment,” explains Weber.

European Labour Market Barometer: second damper in a row, but still at a high level

In August, the European Labour Market Barometer fell for the second time in a row, dropping by 0.3 points in comparison with last month to a total of 104.3 points. However, that still means that the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) remains at a high level.

“The European labour markets are still on their way to recovery. However, the risks of increasing numbers of infections in autumn have put a bit of a damper on the prospects again,” reports Enzo Weber, head of the IAB forecast division “Forecast and Macroeconomic Analysis”. The outlook in several participating countries has deteriorated: the labour market leading indicator fell significantly in Cyprus, Bulgaria, Switzerland, the Czech Republic, Poland and Belgium-Flanders.

The sinking optimism can be seen in the expectations regarding the growth of unemployment. The European Labour Market Barometer’s sub-indicator for the development of unemployment figures fell by 0.7 points – starting from an especially high level – and stands at 104.7 points in August. The outlook regarding employment, on the other hand, remains stable. The sub-indicator for future employment growth rose slightly by 0.1 point to 104.0 points.