After a continuous decline from June to December 2021, the European Labour Market Barometer rises again in February 2022 for the second time in a row. Compared to January, the labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) climbs by 1.2 points to 103.0 points. The survey period on which the barometer is based ended in mid-February, so it does not yet map the possible effects of the Russian attack on Ukraine.
“The fact that the end of COVID restrictions is in sight in many countries speaks for a clear spring revival, but the consequences of the war in Ukraine may lead to a damper,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. Compared to January, the European Labour Market Barometer stayed the same or rose in almost all of the participating countries in February. The barometer shows an increase everywhere in the Eastern European countries. These results reflect the status before the Russian attack on Ukraine, however.
A more optimistic outlook is revealed for employment and even more so for unemployment. “The expectations of the European public employment services regarding the development of unemployment have improved significantly since the beginning of the year,” says Weber. Compared to January, the sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures increases by 1.6 points to 102.2 points. The value therefore lies above the neutral mark of 100 points once again and signals a decline in unemployment. The sub-indicator for seasonally adjusted employment growth rises by 0.9 points to 103.8 points.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average.
The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2020/kb2120.pdf.