After rising four times in a row, there is no further increase in the European Labour Market Barometer in May. The labour market leading indicator of the European Network of Public Employment Services and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) remains at 103.4 points – the same level as for April. The assessments of the development of unemployment and employment continue to be positive.
“The outlook for the European labour market did not improve further in May, but employment is likely to develop remarkably well despite difficult conditions,” reports Enzo Weber, IAB head of forecast. Although the outlook for the European labour markets continues to be positive, there is still the risk of the Russia-Ukraine war escalating further or of there being a widespread halt in energy supplies.
There are only slight changes to note in the outlook for the development of unemployment and employment. The sub-indicator for the development of seasonally adjusted unemployment figures rose by 0.1 point. The sub-indicator for employment, on the other hand, fell by 0.1 point. “The assessments of the public employment services in the participating countries are currently very similar, with differences becoming even more marginal in May,” adds Weber.
The European Labour Market Barometer is a monthly leading indicator based on a survey of the local or regional employment agencies in 17 participating public employment services. The survey has been carried out jointly by the employment services and the IAB since June 2018. The participating countries include Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Belgium-DG, Belgium-Flanders, Germany, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland and Belgium-Wallonia. While component A of the barometer signals the development of the seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for the next three months, component B forecasts employment trends. The average of the components "unemployment" and "employment" constitutes the total value of the barometer. This indicator thus provides an outlook on the overall development of the labour market. The scale ranges from 90 (very poor development) to 110 (very good development). First, a barometer score for each of the participating employment services is determined. The European barometer is then derived from these national scores in the form of a weighted average. The time series of the European Labour Market Barometer, including its components for all 17 participating employment services, is available at www.iab.de/Presse/elmb-components. More information on the European Labour Market Barometer is available at https://www.iab-forum.de/en/launch-of-the-european-labour-market-barometer.