The economy and the labour market are in constant flux, a situation that is shaped not only by long-term developments such as demographic change and globalisation but also by factors such as the digital revolution, the impact of climate change and unexpected crises, such as the disruption caused by the war in Ukraine. In this focus area, the IAB analyses and forecasts how and to what extent this affects changes in the labour market. It considers a variety of processes and effects, for example employment and unemployment trends, demand for skilled and unskilled workers, and the ramifications for pay, CPD, working conditions and the supply of labour. This research is also conducted at the occupational level, in particular, as structural change in the labour market is echoed centrally in adjustments to vocational requirements, skills and roles. The effects of this change generally vary by region, so the analyses often focus on regional differences.
In 2026, the focus area will continue to examine how use of the latest technologies is affecting the labour market, looking closely at the impact of the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in particular. New employee data and information from job ads will be processed in order to analyse how the use of AI is changing working conditions or areas such as work structures and requirement profiles. Illustrative calculations will be used to produce short-term and long-term forecasts of regional demand for skilled workers and qualifications and to show how the supply of, and demand for, qualifications and occupations could change in the long term as a result of the use of AI. The focus area will also assess whether companies respond differently to trade shocks than to technology shocks. In addition, there will be analysis of whether and how the wage premiums offered by companies differ for employees in routine and non-routine occupations and how these differences have evolved over time. An additional focus of the research will be on the adaptation to structural change at regional level through employee mobility between companies and sectors, and what role labour market policy can play in this.
In 2026, even greater emphasis will be placed on research into the effects of environmental transformation and the resulting need for adaptation. This will also involve looking at the effect of environmental transformation on the propensity of employees to engage in further vocational training, and which occupational categories are most affected by this. It will also examine whether there are gender-based and age-based differences. Research will also focus on how occupations with green skills – i.e. activities and expertise relating to the environment – differ from other occupations in terms of their skills profiles, how these change over time, and what opportunities or barriers to moving between occupations could exist for employees. This will also include analysing differences in the way that green skills are distributed across the regions and, given these differences, the role of regional mobility in employment trends and income disparities. The aim is to gain a better understanding of the impact of regional aspects of the environmental transformation on the labour market, and how labour market policies can respond.
Activities
- Publications on the topic: Labour Market in Structural Change
- Projects on the topic: Labour Market in Structural Change
Departments
- Research Group Occupations in the Transformation
- Research Department Education, Training, and Employment Over the Life Course
- Research Department Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses
- Research Department Regional Labour Markets
- Regional Research Network
- Junior Research Group Occupations and Employment Trajectories
- Working Group Occupations
- Working Group Digital and ecological transformation
