IAB-Colloquium (en) Archive - Page 2 of 17 - IAB - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

The Effect of Public Sector Relocations on Regional Development in Germany

This paper estimates the causal effect of public employment reallocation on local labor markets.

Regional economic disparities within countries have become increasingly large, often surpassing the disparities observed between countries. To address regional inequality, governments have been turning away from standard subsidies and are experimenting with public employment reallocation as a place-based policy.

This paper estimates the causal effect of public employment reallocation on local labor markets. I study the ‘Heimatstrategie,’ which relocates around 3,000 public sector jobs from Munich to economically lagging regions in Bavaria, Germany. Using novel data on 60 agency relocations between 2015 and 2025, I exploit the government’s quantitative selection criteria for receiving municipalities and implement a long-differences design comparing treated Bavarian municipalities to Mahalanobis-matched control municipalities in other German states.

My estimates show that relocations increased private sector employment shares by up to 2.3%, reduced unemployment rates by up to 11.9%, and increased local population by up to 1.6% without harming sending locations. These results provide new causal evidence on public employment multipliers from non-capital city relocations, addressing external validity concerns in the existing literature.

The Economics of Paid Sick Leave

This article examines the economics of paid sick leave from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.

This article examines the economics of paid sick leave from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Research on paid sick leave has evolved dynamically over the last decade, primarily driven by U.S. sick pay mandates, which have increased paid sick leave access from 63 percent to 77 percent in all U.S. jobs.

We begin by discussing the economic rationales for government regulation, particularly the negative externalities associated with contagious diseases when individuals work while sick. Then, we review economic modeling approaches to study optimal paid sick leave policies. After that, we discuss key trade-offs in the general design of paid sick leave schemes along with trade-offs when setting specific policy parameters.

Methodological Experiments to Inform Adaptive Survey Designs in Longitudinal Research

This presentation reports on recent experimental work aimed at improving survey performance.

This presentation reports on recent experimental work aimed at improving survey performance with respect to the joint optimization of response rates, nonresponse bias, and fieldwork costs in a long-running large-scale household panel. Drawing on the main study of the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), including the IAB-SOEP Migration Samples and the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, I discuss four field experiments designed to identify leverage points for more efficient and less biased data collection.
First, I present two incentive experiments: (1) a study testing the effectiveness of prepaid incentives in combination with post-paid incentives in a panel study, and (2) an experiment evaluating unconditional pre-paid and “early-bird” incentives in a mature panel context. Second, I summarize preliminary findings from two multimode experiments. One assigns respondents at random to one of three interviewing modes: video interviewing (CALVI), interviewer-administered face-to-face (CAPI), or web self-completion (CAWI). The other experiment randomly transitions 50% of households from CAPI to a CAWI-with-CAPI-follow-up design, while the remaining 50% continue in their familiar CAPI mode.

Using evidence from these studies, I outline the derivation of an adaptive mode-assignment strategy for household panels - an approach that tailors data-collection modes to household characteristics and response propensities with the goal of stabilizing data quality while reducing costs. I conclude by highlighting methodological pitfalls encountered in the experiments and by outlining next steps toward fully operational adaptive survey designs.

This presentation draws partly on joint work with colleagues from the SOEP team, researchers at the Federal Institute for Population Research, and GESIS.

Gender Differences in Performance: The Role of External Testing Environments

This study is whether evaluation settings shape early gender gaps using population-level administrative records.

Gender occupational segregation remains a central barrier to closing the earnings gap, with women underrepresented in high-paying, math-intensive careers.

We study whether evaluation settings shape early gender gaps using population-level administrative records covering all 6th-graders in Madrid and multiple rounds of school-level randomization to identical standardized exams administered either internally or externally. Girls’ mathematics performance declines under external administration, while verbal performance is unaffected. To examine mechanisms, we link administrative records to contemporaneous student-level attitudes and beliefs from a post-exam survey. We provide causal evidence that girls’ underperformance in mathematics under external administration is explained by higher stress.

These findings establish evaluation settings as an overlooked determinant of early gender gaps with lasting consequences for career segregation.

Out-of-School Learning: Subtitling vs. Dubbing and the Acquisition of Foreign-Language Skills

While prior studies of language acquisition have focused on schools, we show the overwhelming influence of out-of-school learning.

English-language skills are a near necessity in today’s global economy. Are they influenced by historically rooted differences in whether countries subtitle or dub foreign TV content?

While prior studies of language acquisition have focused on schools, we show the overwhelming influence of out-of-school learning. We identify the causal effect of subtitling in a difference-in-differences specification that compares English to math skills in European countries that do and do not use subtitles. We find a large positive effect of subtitling on English-language skills of over one standard deviation.

The effect is robust to accounting for linguistic similarity, economic incentives to learn English, and cultural protectiveness. Consistent with oral TV transmission, the effect is larger for listening and speaking skills than for reading.

Joint: with Frauke Baumeister and Eric A. Hanushek

The Network Origin of Slow Labor Reallocation

This paper introduces a new network framework to analyze how skill frictions shapes the speed of labor market adjustment.

How fast do labor markets adjust to technology shocks? This paper introduces a new network framework to analyze how skill frictions shapes the speed of labor market adjustment.

Using expert data, I construct an occupation network where links capture feasible transitions based on shared skills. This network is sparse and clustered, with a few critical “bridge occupations” connecting otherwise separate clusters of occupations. Leveraging French administrative data, I show that workers transitioning through these bridges reach higher-wage, lower-unemployment occupations. Next, I develop a job-search model embedded in this occupation network and find that bridge occupations disproportionately influence overall reallocation speed. Quantitatively, the model predicts that robot adoption induces a slow reallocation process - lasting around ten years - and reduces welfare gains by 40%, an order of magnitude higher than previous estimates.

Policies targeting bridge occupations significantly accelerate reallocation, outperforming interventions focused on expanding sectors.

These findings highlight the crucial role of occupation networks in shaping labor market adjustments and provide new insights for policy design.

Recent developments in Economics of Education

How Many Children Left Behind; A Market for Teacher Quality.......

Prof. Eric Hanushek, PhD
Titel: Developing a Market for Teacher Quality
Abstract: tba

Prof. Jeffrey Smith, PhD
Titel: How Many Children Left Behind? A Meta-Analysis of Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Developing-Country Education Programs
Extensive research on the effects of education programs in developing countries has left a key question unanswered: how many students benefit from these programs?

We answer this question by re-analyzing the microdata from the universe of published education RCTs from developing countries. Despite the current enthusiasm for replication, we were able to obtain data for just 45% of the studies in our sampling frame. Our analytic sample includes more than half a million observations covering 123 different interventions run in 24 countries. Using this data, we construct non-parametric lower bounds on the across-student variance of treatment effects for each intervention. Our meta-analytic estimate of the standard deviation of treatment effects is 0.12 SDs of control-group test scores, which is nearly twice as large as the average treatment effect for the studies in our sample. The across-student variation in the effects of the same intervention is more than half as large as the variation in impacts across studies.

Moreover, the standard deviation of impacts varies widely, from nearly zero for 20% of programs to almost half an SD of test scores for the top handful of interventions. The variance of treatment effects is strongly correlated with the average effect. However, we can explain almost none of the variance in treatment effects with the observed covariates from the studies, even if we use machine learning methods to estimate and partial out CATEs. Our results suggest that education interventions in developing countries leave over a quarter of children behind.

Joint: Hanna Han, Jason Kerwin, Juan S. Munoz-Morales, Jeffrey Smith, and Rebecca Thornton

Job search Assistance for Vocational Students

This paper evaluates AvenirPro, a job search assistance and counseling program specifically designed for vocational students in France.

In France, vocational students face a significantly higher unemployment rate compared to apprentices who obtain the same diploma.

This paper evaluates AvenirPro, a job search assistance and counseling program specifically designed for vocational students. The program consists of two components. First, caseworkers from the French Public Employment Service deliver in-class interventions during the final year of vocational schooling. These sessions aim to equip students with the knowledge and skills necessary to conduct effective job searches and prepare for interviews. Second, the same caseworkers provide individualized support during the five months following graduation. We designed and implemented a large-scale field experiment with randomization at three levels. First, we randomly selected schools. Second, within treated schools, classes were randomly selected to participate in the group-level counseling sessions. Third, among students in treated classes, some were randomly assigned to receive post-graduation support.

Our preliminary results indicate a substantial increase in employment rates six months after graduation among treated students. These effects seem to be driven by the first part of the program.

Trust as a Retention Tool in Voluntary Business Survey Panels: Learnings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond operates a voluntary monthly business survey panel covering the eastern mid-Atlantic United States.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond operates a voluntary monthly business survey panel covering the eastern mid-Atlantic United States. Despite employing best practices from social exchange and other response theories, the Richmond Fed has experienced low recruitment rates and minimal impact on panel retention. Most theories on survey participation are derived from individuals and not on businesses. There are significant differences in administering surveys to businesses versus households, which could mean that existing response theories may not be optimal for business surveys.

To better understand the motivations behind business participation in surveys, the Richmond Fed conducted original research among its survey panelists. The Richmond Fed added both an open-ended and closed-ended question into its monthly survey to gauge panelists’ reasons for participation.

Findings from the research found that the key principles of social exchange held true, particularly the importance of building trust between respondents and the research organization. Businesses view trust in several ways: they feel included in the policy decision-making process, that participation allows them to stay informed and to reflect on their business through tangible and intangible benefits, participation is an act of civic duty, and participation allows them to have their voice heard.

This presentation will detail how the Richmond Fed developed a survey retention program based on their research findings. The program incorporates a communication strategy tailored to the duration of panel membership. It also utilizes non-monetary incentives such as newsletters and webinars to maintain panelist interest and involvement. Additionally, the program offers personalized experiences for panelists through adult-to-adult communication, personalized data reports, and notifications when their information is used in policy discussions or external publications. The presentation will provide guidance on how to create retention programs that are customized to meet the specific needs of your organization.

Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program

This study examines the Job-Turbo, a nationwide initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate refugee employment.

Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into local labor markets, and many past interventions have shown limited impact.

This study examines the Job-Turbo, a nationwide initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate refugee employment - primarily among individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find sizable increases in both caseworker - refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based - spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions - and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and the share of sustained placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, though increases in job placements were concentrated among men and in low-skill jobs, with comparatively modest effects for women. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no evidence of either resource reallocation or displacement.

These results suggest that intensified job-search assistance - embedded early in the integration process and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure - can meaningfully improve refugees’ labor-market outcomes even amid substantial arrivals.