Hybrid Archive - Page 2 of 12 - IAB - Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung

Recent developments in Economics of Education

How Many Children Left Behind; A Market for Teacher Quality.......

Prof. Eric Hanushek, PhD
Titel: Developing a Market for Teacher Quality
Abstract: tba

Prof. Jeffrey Smith, PhD
Titel: How Many Children Left Behind? A Meta-Analysis of Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in Developing-Country Education Programs
Extensive research on the effects of education programs in developing countries has left a key question unanswered: how many students benefit from these programs?

We answer this question by re-analyzing the microdata from the universe of published education RCTs from developing countries. Despite the current enthusiasm for replication, we were able to obtain data for just 45% of the studies in our sampling frame. Our analytic sample includes more than half a million observations covering 123 different interventions run in 24 countries. Using this data, we construct non-parametric lower bounds on the across-student variance of treatment effects for each intervention. Our meta-analytic estimate of the standard deviation of treatment effects is 0.12 SDs of control-group test scores, which is nearly twice as large as the average treatment effect for the studies in our sample. The across-student variation in the effects of the same intervention is more than half as large as the variation in impacts across studies.

Moreover, the standard deviation of impacts varies widely, from nearly zero for 20% of programs to almost half an SD of test scores for the top handful of interventions. The variance of treatment effects is strongly correlated with the average effect. However, we can explain almost none of the variance in treatment effects with the observed covariates from the studies, even if we use machine learning methods to estimate and partial out CATEs. Our results suggest that education interventions in developing countries leave over a quarter of children behind.

Joint: Hanna Han, Jason Kerwin, Juan S. Munoz-Morales, Jeffrey Smith, and Rebecca Thornton

Job search Assistance for Vocational Students

This paper evaluates AvenirPro, a job search assistance and counseling program specifically designed for vocational students in France.

In France, vocational students face a significantly higher unemployment rate compared to apprentices who obtain the same diploma.

This paper evaluates AvenirPro, a job search assistance and counseling program specifically designed for vocational students. The program consists of two components. First, caseworkers from the French Public Employment Service deliver in-class interventions during the final year of vocational schooling. These sessions aim to equip students with the knowledge and skills necessary to conduct effective job searches and prepare for interviews. Second, the same caseworkers provide individualized support during the five months following graduation. We designed and implemented a large-scale field experiment with randomization at three levels. First, we randomly selected schools. Second, within treated schools, classes were randomly selected to participate in the group-level counseling sessions. Third, among students in treated classes, some were randomly assigned to receive post-graduation support.

Our preliminary results indicate a substantial increase in employment rates six months after graduation among treated students. These effects seem to be driven by the first part of the program.

Trust as a Retention Tool in Voluntary Business Survey Panels: Learnings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond operates a voluntary monthly business survey panel covering the eastern mid-Atlantic United States.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond operates a voluntary monthly business survey panel covering the eastern mid-Atlantic United States. Despite employing best practices from social exchange and other response theories, the Richmond Fed has experienced low recruitment rates and minimal impact on panel retention. Most theories on survey participation are derived from individuals and not on businesses. There are significant differences in administering surveys to businesses versus households, which could mean that existing response theories may not be optimal for business surveys.

To better understand the motivations behind business participation in surveys, the Richmond Fed conducted original research among its survey panelists. The Richmond Fed added both an open-ended and closed-ended question into its monthly survey to gauge panelists’ reasons for participation.

Findings from the research found that the key principles of social exchange held true, particularly the importance of building trust between respondents and the research organization. Businesses view trust in several ways: they feel included in the policy decision-making process, that participation allows them to stay informed and to reflect on their business through tangible and intangible benefits, participation is an act of civic duty, and participation allows them to have their voice heard.

This presentation will detail how the Richmond Fed developed a survey retention program based on their research findings. The program incorporates a communication strategy tailored to the duration of panel membership. It also utilizes non-monetary incentives such as newsletters and webinars to maintain panelist interest and involvement. Additionally, the program offers personalized experiences for panelists through adult-to-adult communication, personalized data reports, and notifications when their information is used in policy discussions or external publications. The presentation will provide guidance on how to create retention programs that are customized to meet the specific needs of your organization.

Refugee Labor Market Integration at Scale: Evidence from Germany’s Fast-Track Employment Program

This study examines the Job-Turbo, a nationwide initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate refugee employment.

Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into local labor markets, and many past interventions have shown limited impact.

This study examines the Job-Turbo, a nationwide initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate refugee employment - primarily among individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find sizable increases in both caseworker - refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based - spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions - and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and the share of sustained placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, though increases in job placements were concentrated among men and in low-skill jobs, with comparatively modest effects for women. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no evidence of either resource reallocation or displacement.

These results suggest that intensified job-search assistance - embedded early in the integration process and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure - can meaningfully improve refugees’ labor-market outcomes even amid substantial arrivals.

The Effects of Reducing Mandatory Job Search in Unemployment Insurance

This paper studies the effects of a market-level reduction in job search provided by unemployment benefit recipients.

This paper studies the effects of a market-level reduction in job search provided by unemployment benefit recipients. We exploit a market-level policy change in Switzerland, where a subset of Public Employment Services reduced the number of required applications by 25% and abolished mandatory vacancy referrals.

Using detailed administrative data and difference-in-differences designs, we find that the policy change increased the average duration of unemployment spells by about 6%, while increasing average reemployment earnings by about 2%. At the firm side, vacancy filling and posting reduced substantially.

Local conditions and integration when randomly placed refugees can move away

This paper demonstrates that random dispersal policies (RDP) are not sufficient for causal identification for two reasons.

A large body of migration literature uses random dispersal policies (RDP) to estimate the importance of local factors for integration.

This paper demonstrates that RDP is not sufficient for causal identification for two reasons. First, while RDP ensures that local conditions are exogenous to immigrant characteristics, they still correlate with other observed and unobserved local factors. Second, onward mobility requires careful consideration, as it can be endogenous to factors at the initial location. We theoretically show that estimates from continuousinstruments based on RDP contain three components: the causal effect of interest, ”multiple-treatment bias” (MTB), and ”mobility bias” (MB). The extent of these biases depends on the interrelations of local factors and onward mobility, which can be partly observed. We empirically investigate these biases using novel administrative data from Germany that cover the universe of all refugees between 2013 and 2018 and feature random dispersal.

The central empirical finding is that estimates that ignore MB and MTB cannot be compared and can even change signs.

Joint: Marco Schmandt, Constantin Tielkes, Felix Weinhardt

Skill-Replacing Technology and Bottom-Half Inequality

In this model, technology substitutes the usage of skill in routine tasks in contrast to standard RBTC models.

I propose a model of a skill-replacing routine-biased technological change (SR-RBTC). In this model, technology substitutes the usage of skill in routine tasks in contrast to standard RBTC models, which assume technology replaces the workers themselves.

The SR-RBTC model explains three key trends that are inconsistent with standard RBTC models: 1) why specifically middle wages declined even though workers in routine occupations are dispersed across the entire bottom half of the wage distribution, 2) why middle wages stopped declining while the technological change continued, and 3) why there is no substantial decline in the average wage of workers inroutine occupations. I derive two new testable predictions from the model: a decreasein return to skill and a decrease in skill level in routine occupations. I use an interactive fixed-effects model to confirm both predictions.

Since SR-RBTC violates the ignorability assumption required by standard decomposition methods, I introduce a “skewness decomposition” to show that SR-RBTC is the main driver of bottom-half inequality trends.

Prosociality and Layoffs

This study is about layoffs by U.S. public firms using NLP techniques, which allows to establish several facts that are jointly hard to reconcile with existing models.

Many managers describe layoffs as the hardest and most painful decisions of their careers; yet,
standard economic models treat human and physical capital adjustments alike. We collect novel
data on layoffs by U.S. public firms using NLP techniques, which allows us to establish several
facts that are jointly hard to reconcile with existing models. First, firing decisions have large
adverse healthof effects on CEOs, with distress-induced layoffs estimated to reduce CEO lifespan
by 1.85 years. Second, CEOs become more reluctant to make layoffs over their tenure as they
form more connections inside the firm. After plausibly-exogenous CEO changes, instead, new
CEOs make more and shareholder value-increasing layoff decisions. Third, CEOs’ increasing
reluctance to lay off employees intensifies when layoffs are more painful for employees, such as
during recessions or the holiday season, or more painful for managers to witness, such as when
they affect socially or geographically close employees. Fourth, the documented layoff reluctance is
substantially more pronounced among CEOs with higher empathy-related traits. We also show
that long-tenured CEOs are more likely to cut R&D spending during recessions, offsetting forgone
savings from layoffs. Our results imply the need to adjust models of managerial decision-making
for a “human” component of layoff avoidance. Prosocial, or empathy-related, motives provide a
unifying explanation.