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International and Regional Labour Markets

Freedom of movement within the European single market and migration from non-EU countries present great opportunities for the labour market, especially in light of the growing shortage of skilled and unskilled labour. But they also present challenges, not least in terms of labour market integration and the social inclusion of refugees. Another major challenge for the German labour market is the transformation of the economy, driven by digitalisation, decarbonisation and demographic change. All of these trends are playing out very differently from region to region owing to the differences between urban and rural areas and in the way that companies, sectors and occupations are distributed across the regions. There are also significant variations within regions. In cities, in particular, success in the labour market and the chances of integration – especially for young people, women and refugees – hinge on the socio-economic structure of the local neighbourhood, the availability of housing and access to transport and other infrastructure.

In 2025, the focus area will study topics such as how migrants’ intention to remain impacts on investment in human capital in the destination country and on labour market integration. The IAB will base this research primarily on its own surveys, including the IAB-SOEP migration sample, the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees and the IAB-BiB/FReDa-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees from Ukraine. Given that many immigrants arriving in Germany leave again very quickly, the IAB has established a new International Mobility Panel (IMPa) in order to investigate the socio-demographic profile of immigrants, the factors driving their decision to leave Germany again and the reasons for deciding to relocate more than once (e.g. circular migration).

At various levels, regional disparities will be analysed and forecasts made regarding regional labour market trends. In this context, a number of projects will use georeferenced data to research how the socio-economic composition of the neighbourhood and the accessibility of jobs affect the success of various groups in the labour market. Regarding the different ways in which environmental transformation and digital transformation are affecting each region, the IAB will analyse the reorganisation of the sector structure and also the opportunities and risks of the pressure to bring about change. The aim is to obtain a better understanding of favourable and detrimental factors that influence job-to-job transitions in regional labour markets. Furthermore, the potential for substitution by new technologies will be determined, patterns and causes of short-term shortages of skilled workers will be identified and regional differences in quality of life will be quantified.

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