The long-term development of the labour market

Abstract

The article examines the effects of demographic change on the supply of and demand for labour in Germany. The projection differentiates between four levels of qualification and 12 main occupational groups and extends up to the year 2025. This is followed by a comparison of supply and demand with the aim of identifying future problem areas. What becomes apparent is that it will indeed be possible to cover the demand for persons with low skills in future. On the other hand, the demand for skilled workers is increasing and will not begin to drop slightly until 2020. On the level of occupational fields, there is already an intense shortage of labour in the primary service-sector occupations. The current surplus in the healthcare and social occupations will be reduced by 2025. Finally, recommendations for policy action in order to adjust the supply and demand for labour are offered. This includes, along with the increase in the participation of women and elder persons in gainful employment, above all measures targeted towards further training. (IAB)

Cite article

Helmrich, R. & Zika, G. (2010): Langfristige Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarktes. In: C. Kreklau & J. Siegers (Hrsg.) (2010): Handbuch der Aus- und Weiterbildung : Politik, Praxis, Finanzielle Förderung, p. 2-34.