Die Folgen der Freizügigkeit für die Ost-West-Migration

Abstract

"Many observers expect that Eastern Enlargement of the European Union (EU) will trigger a migration surge. In this paper a quantitative analysis of migration into Germany is provided for a panel of 18 source countries, in order to draw conclusions regarding potential migration from the East. The empirical model is based on the hypothesis that migration is a disequilibrium phenomenon, and will cease after an equilibrium between migration stocks and macro-economic variables such as income differentials is attained. This hypothesis is proved. Based on an error correction model, the speed of adjustment and equilibrium levels of migration stocks are analysed, and different scenarios for the implications of Eastern Enlargement are simulated. However, a considerable amount of uncertainty remains since we observe high heterogeneity in the migration behavior across countries." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Brücker, H. (2001): Die Folgen der Freizügigkeit für die Ost-West-Migration. Schlussfolgerungen aus einer Zeitreihenanalyse der Migration nach Deutschland, 1967-1998. In: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute (Hrsg.) (2001): Migration in Europa : 64. Wissenschaftliche Tagung der Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute am 26. und 27. April 2001 (Beihefte der Konjunkturpolitik, 52), p. 17-54.