Abstract

Digitalisation, but also other technological and ecological challenges, are leading to significant changes in the world of work and life. In times of disruptive change, traditional forecasts of skilled workers are becoming less meaningful. New methods are needed to find answers to the question of how many skilled workers will be needed on the labour market in the future in which occupations and what skills they need.
The IAB is conducting a feasibility study in order to identify appropriate procedures. It will examine two methods for the mechanical engineering, information services and health and social services sectors to determine whether they are suitable for assessing future competence requirements.
The first method takes advantage of the fact that in disruptive times there is a greater coexistence of high-tech and conventionally producing companies. This approach is based on the assumption that the occupational structure and competence profiles in companies in which modern technologies are already being used are already geared to the requirements of the digitalised world of work. From a comparison of the occupational and competence structure of conventionally producing companies and the digital pioneer companies, it can be concluded which skilled workers and competences will be required in the digitalised working world of the future.
The second method focuses on the evaluation of job advertisements. In job advertisements, statements are made about the required competences. If specific competences are mentioned significantly more frequently than in the past or if new competences and certificates appear in job advertisements, it can be assumed that they will be in greater demand on the labour market in the future. We propose a descriptive methodology to observe and to assess the development of the occurences of competences in job advertisements.