The impact of Eastern enlargement on employment and labour markets in the EU member states

Abstract

"In the first part of the report, the main findings on the impact of trade, migration and capital movements from various research teams are summarised. The results are presented along the following lines of investigation: first, the basic predictions from trade theory regarding the implications of integrating economies with different per capita incomes and factor endowments are discussed in order to outline the central questions of the study. Second, a brief digression on the initial conditions of economic integration with regard to incomes and factor endowments is given. Third, the progress made thus far in the removal of barriers to trade, the migration of labour and the mobility of capital is evaluated and the further impact of Eastern Enlargement on these three dimensions of integration is assessed. Fourth, the present patterns of trade, migration and factor movements between the EU and the CEECs are analysed in order to evaluate which countries, sectors and factors of production are affected most by Eastern Enlargement. Fifth, the quantitative impact of trade and migration on wages, employment and labour mobility is estimated based on large longitudinal data sets in Austria, Germany and Sweden. Sixth, a scenario of trade and migration is presented in order to give a clue for the future development of trade and factor mobility and the implications thereof upon labour markets following accession of the CEECs to the EU. (...)<br> The second part of the report is structured as follows. Chapter One outlines the relevant trade-offs involved by the accession and discusses the likely profile of winners and losers in the enlargement process as well as the credibility effects associated with the enlargement laying down the scenarios at accession. Chapter Two draws on the historical experience of the Southern Enlargement of the EU, the German unification and the NAFTA agreement in order to make inferences as to the proper set of institutions likely to minimize undesirable short-run effects of accession on employment, income distribution and social cohesion. As the social costs of enlargement are crucially related to the speed of convergence of the Central and Eastern European countries to the EU GDP per capita levels, Chapter Three discusses likely impediments to growth in the candidate countries, hence the scope for structural policies to accompany the accession. Some medium- term growth scenarios for the candidate countries are also offered, which isolate the effects of the policies envisaged in this part of the report." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Boeri, T., Brücker, H., Schrettl, W., Trübswetter, P., Saint Paul, G. & Schumacher, D. (2000): The impact of Eastern enlargement on employment and labour markets in the EU member states. Berlin u.a., 240 p.