Bottlenecks in the area of middle-level qualifications despite increased immigration : current results from the BIBB and IAB qualifications and occupational field projections up to the year 2030, taking wage developments and occupational flexibility into account

Abstract

"The results of the third wave of qualification and occupational field projections, which are carried out under the joint leadership of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), give an overview of the probable development of the German labour market up to the year 2030. Under the assumption that the previous ways of behaviour will continue, it becomes apparent that bottlenecks will continue in the area of middle-level qualifications, although, in comparison to the two first waves, increased immigration has been taken into account. Even wage adjustments by employers, taken into account for the first time in the models, cannot compensate for occupational bottlenecks. For, on the one hand, the already existent structural differences in wages cannot be overcome and, on the other, depending on the occupation they have learned, economically active persons cannot be employed in all other occupations." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku)

Cite article

Maier, T., Zika, G., Wolter, M., Kalinowski, M. & Helmrich, R. (2014): Engpässe im mittleren Qualifikationsbereich trotz erhöhter Zuwanderung. Aktuelle Ergebnisse der BIBB-IAB-Qualifikations- und Berufsfeldprojektionen bis zum Jahr 2030 unter Berücksichtigung von Lohnentwicklungen und beruflicher Flexibilität. (BIBB-Report 2014,23), 16 p.