The requirement for skilled labour in Germany : on the short- and long-term development of the supply of and demand for skilled labour, unemployment and immigration

Abstract

"IAB assumes that the labour, capital and goods markets will adjust themselves to the drop in the supply of labour at least in the long term. For this reason it is not sensible to forecast 'a gap in skilled labour' - of any size whatsoever. Having said that, a mismatch may come about on the labour market in respect to certain qualifications, occupations or regions and this may mean that vacant jobs cannot be filled in many labour market segments.<br> If participation in employment continues to rise, the labour force potential in Germany will drop at a net immigration of 100,000 persons by 7.3 million by 2035 and at a net immigration of 200,000 persons by 5.4 million persons. This decrease must not be confused with 'a gap in skilled labour'.<br> In order to ensure the sustainable development of the labour force potential in Germany, an active strategy towards the mobilisation of domestic potential is necessary, especially of women and older persons, but also the targeted recruitment of qualified skilled workers from abroad along with their integration into the labour market. Immigration from third countries in particular would have to be higher if a drop in the labour force potential is to be clearly limited." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Cite article

Brücker, H., Brunow, S., Fuchs, J., Kubis, A., Mendolicchio, C. & Weber, E. (2013): Fachkräftebedarf in Deutschland. Zur kurz- und langfristigen Entwicklung von Fachkräfteangebot und -nachfrage, Arbeitslosigkeit und Zuwanderung. (IAB-Stellungnahme 01/2013), Nürnberg, 18 p.