Abstract

This project aims at developing functions for forecasting employment in Germany. Such a function is, on the one hand, to serve as a cornerstone within the RWI-IAB business-cycle-forecasting model, in which the issue of labour-demand determination is not satisfactorily solved yet. On the other hand, the labour-market projections of IAB Section 4 are to be supported.
For both applications, a function is required which is capable of forecasting dependent employment on the basis of quarterly data over a horizon of one and a half, ideally two years.
The forecasting functions should be model-based, different modelling approaches being to be tested, alternatively the employed or the volume of work as depended variable as well as seasonal-adjusted or non-seasonal-adjusted data.