Abstract

This project provides forecasts of the labour supply over the long term for Germany. The methodology is founded on the concepts of potential labour force and hidden unemployment (see project no. 276). Furthermore it is related to the project no. 397, long term projections of the labour supply for the new Länder . There are two key elements of a labour force projection: first, a projection of the population in the working age, and second, an estimation of the future (potential) participation rates. For the population projection see IAB project no. 955. The methods and assumptions used to develop projections of the participation rates are in the centre of this project. The models used are mostly based on time series econometrics The usual breakdown of the labour force is by age and sex. In addition we differentiate by nationality (nationals and non-nationals) and by East and West Germans. The current forecast provides labour force trends up to the year 2050.