Abstract

This study investigates the causal impact of host-country compulsory schooling on the labor market integration of young refugees in Germany. Leveraging quasi-experimental variation in school-leaving ages across federal states—where compulsory education ends at 15 in some states and 16 in others—we apply fuzzy regression discontinuity and regression kink designs to estimate both discrete and marginal effects of additional schooling exposure. Refugees’ state assignments, determined by the federal Königstein quota, provide exogenous variation in educational obligations at arrival. We examine outcomes spanning educational attainment, employment, earnings, sectoral allocation, social benefit dependence, and family formation. Mechanisms include credential acquisition, language proficiency, and peer socialization. The findings will provide evidence on whether extending compulsory schooling improves refugees’ long-term labor market prospects and social integration. Results are expected to inform education and integration policies in Germany and other refugee-receiving countries, expanding on prior research by addressing diverse refugee cohorts and a broader set of outcomes.