Abstract

Dengler and Matthes have calculated the extent to which certain tasks are replaceable by digital technologies in Germany today (substitution potential). The fact that a task is classified as substitutable does not mean that only computers and computer-controlled machines will perform it in the future, because the substitution potential only speaks to the technical feasibility of automation. Whether this potential is exploited at all depends on a number of other aspects. We therefore investigate the relationship between the substitution potential in 2013 and employment and wage growth between 2013 and 2017 at the occupational level. Dengler and Matthes (2018) have already shown that if the substitution potential is higher, employment growth between 2013 and 2016 is on average lower. However, it is unclear whether the negative correlation between substitution potential and employment growth will persist even if the changed demand for labour is taken into account. It is theoretically conceivable that the negative correlation exists because the goods or services produced by occupations with a high substitution potential were less in demand over time. In order to investigate this, the analysis of employment growth in this project also includes a labour demand index. In a further step, the relationship between substitution potential and wage growth is examined.